Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study

Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

Abstract:

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1093052

References:

[1] P. Thoft-Christensen, and M. J. Baker, Structural Reliability Theory and Its Application. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1982.
[2] A. M. Hasofer, and N. C. Lind, "Exact and Invariant Second-Moment Code Format”, J. of Eng. Mech., no. 1, 1974, pp. 111-121.
[3] G. I. Schueller, C. G. Bucher, U. Bourgund, and W. Ouypornprasert, "On Efficient Computational Schemes to Calculate Structural Failure Probabilities,” Prob. Eng. Mech., vol. 4, no. 1, 1989, pp. 10-18.
[4] M. D. McKay, R. J. Beckman, and W. J. Conover, "A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code,” Technometrics, no. 2, 1979, pp. 239-245.
[5] R. L. Iman, and W. J. Conover, "Small Sample Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models, With an Application to Risk Assessment,” Commun. Statist., no. A9, 1980, pp. 1749-1842.
[6] A. Florian, "Optimization of parametric studies using Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling,” in Proc. of the ICOSSAR 2005, Rome, Italy, 2005, pp. 2319-2323.
[7] A. Florian, L. Ševelová, and R. Hela, "Reliability Analysis of Deflections of Concrete Pavement,” in Proc. of the 2nd Int. Conference on Best Practices for Concrete Pavements IBRACON 2011, Florianopolis, Brazil, 2011, pp. 1-10.
[8] A. Florian, and L. Ševelová, "Reliability Analysis of Temperature Influence on Stresses in Rigid Pavement Made from Recycled Materials,” The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, submitted for publication.
[9] A. Florian, and D. Novák, "The Statistical Model Selection for Random Variables,” Engineering Workstations J., vol. 4, no. 3, 1988, pp. 158-162.