Search results for: Mean Absolute Error

Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

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The production of a plant can be measured in terms of seeds. The generation of seeds plays a critical role in our social and daily life. The fruit production which generates seeds, depends on the various parameters of the plant, such as shoot length, leaf number, root length, root number, etc When the plant is growing, some leaves may be lost and some new leaves may appear. It is very difficult to use the number of leaves of the tree to calculate the growth of the plant.. It is also cumbersome to measure the number of roots and length of growth of root in several time instances continuously after certain initial period of time, because roots grow deeper and deeper under ground in course of time. On the contrary, the shoot length of the tree grows in course of time which can be measured in different time instances. So the growth of the plant can be measured using the data of shoot length which are measured at different time instances after plantation. The environmental parameters like temperature, rain fall, humidity and pollution are also play some role in production of yield. The soil, crop and distance management are taken care to produce maximum amount of yields of plant. The data of the growth of shoot length of some mustard plant at the initial stage (7,14,21 & 28 days after plantation) is available from the statistical survey by a group of scientists under the supervision of Prof. Dilip De. In this paper, initial shoot length of Ken( one type of mustard plant) has been used as an initial data. The statistical models, the methods of fuzzy logic and neural network have been tested on this mustard plant and based on error analysis (calculation of average error) that model with minimum error has been selected and can be used for the assessment of shoot length at maturity. Finally, all these methods have been tested with other type of mustard plants and the particular soft computing model with the minimum error of all types has been selected for calculating the predicted data of growth of shoot length. The shoot length at the stage of maturity of all types of mustard plants has been calculated using the statistical method on the predicted data of shoot length.

Keywords: Fuzzy time series, neural network, forecasting error, average error.

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Authors: Alexander N. Savostyanov, Tatiana A. Dolgorukova, Elena A. Esipenko, Mikhail S. Zaleshin, Margherita Malanchini, Anna V. Budakova, Alexander E. Saprygin, Tatiana A. Golovko, Yulia V. Kovas

Abstract:

EEG correlates of mathematical and trait anxiety level were studied in 52 healthy Russian-speakers during execution of error-recognition tasks with lexical, arithmetic and algebraic conditions. Event-related spectral perturbations were used as a measure of brain activity. The ERSP plots revealed alpha/beta desynchronizations within a 500-3000 ms interval after task onset and slow-wave synchronization within an interval of 150-350 ms. Amplitudes of these intervals reflected the accuracy of error recognition, and were differently associated with the three conditions. The correlates of anxiety were found in theta (4-8 Hz) and beta2 (16- 20 Hz) frequency bands. In theta band the effects of mathematical anxiety were stronger expressed in lexical, than in arithmetic and algebraic condition. The mathematical anxiety effects in theta band were associated with differences between anterior and posterior cortical areas, whereas the effects of trait anxiety were associated with inter-hemispherical differences. In beta1 and beta2 bands effects of trait and mathematical anxiety were directed oppositely. The trait anxiety was associated with increase of amplitude of desynchronization, whereas the mathematical anxiety was associated with decrease of this amplitude. The effect of mathematical anxiety in beta2 band was insignificant for lexical condition but was the strongest in algebraic condition. EEG correlates of anxiety in theta band could be interpreted as indexes of task emotionality, whereas the reaction in beta2 band is related to tension of intellectual resources.

Keywords: EEG, brain activity, lexical and numerical error-recognition tasks, mathematical and trait anxiety.

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Authors: Jinfeng Wang, Yuanhong Bi, Hong Li, Yang Liu, Meng Zhao

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In this paper, a new time discontinuous expanded mixed finite element method is proposed and analyzed for two-order convection-dominated diffusion problem. The proofs of the stability of the proposed scheme and the uniqueness of the discrete solution are given. Moreover, the error estimates of the scalar unknown, its gradient and its flux in the L1( ¯ J,L2( )-norm are obtained.

Keywords: Convection-dominated diffusion equation, expanded mixed method, time discontinuous scheme, stability, error estimates.

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Authors: Akram A. Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper an approaches for increasing the effectiveness of error detection in computer network channels with Pulse-Amplitude Modulation (PAM) has been proposed. Proposed approaches are based on consideration of special feature of errors, which are appearances in line with PAM. The first approach consists of CRC modification specifically for line with PAM. The second approach is base of weighted checksums using. The way for checksum components coding has been developed. It has been shown that proposed checksum modification ensure superior digital data control transformation reliability for channels with PAM in compare to CRC.

Keywords: Pulse-Amplitude Modulation, checksum, transmission, discrete.

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Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

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A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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Authors: P. Soda, G.Iannello

Abstract:

In this paper we address the issue of classifying the fluorescent intensity of a sample in Indirect Immuno-Fluorescence (IIF). Since IIF is a subjective, semi-quantitative test in its very nature, we discuss a strategy to reliably label the image data set by using the diagnoses performed by different physicians. Then, we discuss image pre-processing, feature extraction and selection. Finally, we propose two ANN-based classifiers that can separate intrinsically dubious samples and whose error tolerance can be flexibly set. Measured performance shows error rates less than 1%, which candidates the method to be used in daily medical practice either to perform pre-selection of cases to be examined, or to act as a second reader.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, computer aided diagnosis, image classification, indirect immuno-fluorescence, pattern recognition.

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Authors: Hanita Daud, Noorhana Yahya, Vijanth Sagayan, Muizuddin Talib

Abstract:

This paper discusses on the use of Spline Interpolation and Mean Square Error (MSE) as tools to process data acquired from the developed simulator that shall replicate sea bed logging environment. Sea bed logging (SBL) is a new technique that uses marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) sounding technique and is proven to be very successful in detecting and characterizing hydrocarbon reservoirs in deep water area by using resistivity contrasts. It uses very low frequency of 0.1Hz to 10 Hz to obtain greater wavelength. In this work the in house built simulator was used and was provided with predefined parameters and the transmitted frequency was varied for sediment thickness of 1000m to 4000m for environment with and without hydrocarbon. From series of simulations, synthetics data were generated. These data were interpolated using Spline interpolation technique (degree of three) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated between original data and interpolated data. Comparisons were made by studying the trends and relationship between frequency and sediment thickness based on the MSE calculated. It was found that the MSE was on increasing trends in the set up that has the presence of hydrocarbon in the setting than the one without. The MSE was also on decreasing trends as sediment thickness was increased and with higher transmitted frequency.

Keywords: Spline Interpolation, Mean Square Error, Sea Bed Logging, Controlled Source Electromagnetic

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Authors: M. A. M. El-Bendary, H. Kazimian, A. E. Abo-El-azm, N. A. El-Fishawy, F. El-Samie, F. Shawki

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This paper studies a vital issue in wireless communications, which is the transmission of images over Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPANs) through the Bluetooth network. It presents a simple method to improve the efficiency of error control code of old Bluetooth versions over mobile WPANs through Interleaved Error Control Code (IECC) technique. The encoded packets are interleaved by simple block interleaver. Also, the paper presents a chaotic interleaving scheme as a tool against bursts of errors which depends on the chaotic Baker map. Also, the paper proposes using the chaotic interleaver instead of traditional block interleaver with Forward Error Control (FEC) scheme. A comparison study between the proposed and standard techniques for image transmission over a correlated fading channel is presented. Simulation results reveal the superiority of the proposed chaotic interleaving scheme to other schemes. Also, the superiority of FEC with proposed chaotic interleaver to the conventional interleavers with enhancing the security level with chaotic interleaving packetby- packet basis.

Keywords: Mobile Bluetooth terminals, WPANs, Jackes' model, Interleaving technique, chaotic interleaver

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Authors: John Kabuba

Abstract:

The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ionexchange.

Keywords: Clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, Neural network.

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Authors: Mohanchur Sakar, K.K.Shukla, K.S.Dasgupta

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This paper attempts to establish the fact that Multi State Network Classification is essential for performance enhancement of Transport protocols over Satellite based Networks. A model to classify Multi State network condition taking into consideration both congestion and channel error is evolved. In order to arrive at such a model an analysis of the impact of congestion and channel error on RTT values has been carried out using ns2. The analysis results are also reported in the paper. The inference drawn from this analysis is used to develop a novel statistical RTT based model for multi state network classification. An Adaptive Multi State Proactive Transport Protocol consisting of Proactive Slow Start, State based Error Recovery, Timeout Action and Proactive Reduction is proposed which uses the multi state network state classification model. This paper also confirms through detail simulation and analysis that a prior knowledge about the overall characteristics of the network helps in enhancing the performance of the protocol over satellite channel which is significantly affected due to channel noise and congestion. The necessary augmentation of ns2 simulator is done for simulating the multi state network classification logic. This simulation has been used in detail evaluation of the protocol under varied levels of congestion and channel noise. The performance enhancement of this protocol with reference to established protocols namely TCP SACK and Vegas has been discussed. The results as discussed in this paper clearly reveal that the proposed protocol always outperforms its peers and show a significant improvement in very high error conditions as envisaged in the design of the protocol.

Keywords: GEO, ns2, Proactive TCP, SACK, Vegas

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Authors: Jingbo Yang, Hong Li, Yang Liu, Siriguleng He

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonconforming mixed finite element method is studied for semilinear pseudo-hyperbolic partial integrodifferential equations. By use of the interpolation technique instead of the generalized elliptic projection, the optimal error estimates of the corresponding unknown function are given.

Keywords: Pseudo-hyperbolic partial integro-differential equations, Nonconforming mixed element method, Semilinear, Error estimates.

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Authors: Maria Hussin, Malik Zawwar Hussain, Mubashrah Saddiqa

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We present a trigonometric scheme to approximate a circular arc with its two end points and two end tangents/unit tangents. A rational cubic trigonometric Bézier curve is constructed whose end control points are defined by the end points of the circular arc. Weight functions and the remaining control points of the cubic trigonometric Bézier curve are estimated by variational approach to reproduce a circular arc. The radius error is calculated and found less than the existing techniques.

Keywords: Control points, rational trigonometric Bézier curves, radius error, shape measure, weight functions.

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Authors: N. Z. Azlan, H. Yamaura

Abstract:

The experimental study of position control of a light weight and small size robotic finger during non-contact motion is presented in this paper. The finger possesses fingertip pinching and self adaptive grasping capabilities, and is made of a seven bar linkage mechanism with a slider in the middle phalanx. The control system is tested under the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) control algorithm and Recursive Least Square (RLS) based Feedback Error Learning (FEL) control scheme to overcome the uncertainties present in the plant. The experiments conducted in Matlab Simulink and xPC Target environments show that the overall control strategy is efficient in controlling the finger movement.

Keywords: Anthropomorphic finger, position control, feedback error learning, experimental study

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Authors: Suwaree Yordchim, Toby J. Gibbs

Abstract:

The linguistic competence of Thai university students majoring in Business English was examined in the context of knowledge of English language inflection, and also various linguistic elements. Errors analysis was applied to the results of the testing. Levels of errors in inflection, tense and linguistic elements were shown to be significantly high for all noun, verb and adjective inflections. Findings suggest that students do not gain linguistic competence in their use of English language inflection, because of interlanguage interference. Implications for curriculum reform and treatment of errors in the classroom are discussed.

Keywords: Interlanguage, error analysis, inflection, second language acquisition, Thai students.

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Authors: Young-Su Ryu, Su-Hyun Jung, Myoung-Jin Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In this paper, improved performance scheme for joint transmission (JT) is proposed in downlink (DL) coordinated multi-point (CoMP) in case of the constraint transmission power. This scheme is that a serving transmission point (TP) requests the JT to an inter-TP and it selects a precoding technique according to the channel state information (CSI) from user equipment (UE). The simulation results show that the bit error rate (BER) and the throughput performances of the proposed scheme provide the high spectral efficiency and the reliable data at the cell edge.

Keywords: CoMP, joint transmission, minimum mean square error, zero-forcing, zero-forcing dirty paper coding.

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Authors: Abdelghani Dendouga, Nour-Eddine Bouguechal, Souhil Kouda, Samir Barra

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A behavioral model of a second order switchedcapacitor Sigma-Delta modulator is presented. The purpose of this work is the presentation of a behavioral model of a second order switched capacitor ΣΔ modulator considering (Error due to Clock Jitter, Thermal noise Amplifier Noise, Amplifier Slew-Rate, Non linearity of amplifiers, Gain error, Charge Injection, Clock Feedthrough, and Nonlinear on-resistance). A comparison between the use of MOS switches and the use transmission gate switches use is analyzed.

Keywords: Charge injection, clock feed through, Sigma Deltamodulators, Sigma Delta non-idealities, switched capacitor.

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Authors: Abida Harbi

Abstract:

We provide a maximum norm analysis of a finite element Schwarz alternating method for a nonlinear elliptic boundary value problem of the form -Δu = f(u), on two overlapping sub domains with non matching grids. We consider a domain which is the union of two overlapping sub domains where each sub domain has its own independently generated grid. The two meshes being mutually independent on the overlap region, a triangle belonging to one triangulation does not necessarily belong to the other one. Under a Lipschitz assumption on the nonlinearity, we establish, on each sub domain, an optimal L∞ error estimate between the discrete Schwarz sequence and the exact solution of the boundary value problem.

Keywords: Error estimates, Finite elements, Nonlinear PDEs, Schwarz method.

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Authors: F. Castillo, J. Arellano, S. Sánchez

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In this paper an alternative analysis in the time domain is described and the results of the interpolation process are presented by means of functions that are based on the rule of conditional mathematical expectation and the covariance function. A comparison between the interpolation error caused by low order filters and the classic sinc(t) truncated function is also presented. When fewer samples are used, low-order filters have less error. If the number of samples increases, the sinc(t) type functions are a better alternative. Generally speaking there is an optimal filter for each input signal which depends on the filter length and covariance function of the signal. A novel scheme of work for adaptive interpolation filters is also presented.

Keywords: Interpolation, basis function, over-sampling.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

Abstract:

True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: Distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve.

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Authors: Y. Bentoutou

Abstract:

On-board Error Detection and Correction (EDAC) devices aim to secure data transmitted between the central processing unit (CPU) of a satellite onboard computer and its local memory. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of four low complexity EDAC techniques for application in Random Access Memories (RAMs) on-board small satellites. The performance of a newly proposed EDAC architecture is measured and compared with three different EDAC strategies, using the same FPGA technology. A statistical analysis of single-event upset (SEU) and multiple-bit upset (MBU) activity in commercial memories onboard Alsat-1 is given for a period of 8 years

Keywords: Error Detection and Correction; On-board computer; small satellite missions

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Authors: Seungwon Choi, Seungri Jin, Ayoung Heo, Jung-Hyun Park, Dong-Jo Park

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This paper deals with wireless relay communication systems in which multiple sources transmit information to the destination node by the help of multiple relays. We consider a signal forwarding technique based on the minimum mean-square error (MMSE) approach with multiple antennas for each relay. A source-relay-destination joint design strategy is proposed with power constraints at the destination and the source nodes. Simulation results confirm that the proposed joint design method improves the average MSE performance compared with that of conventional MMSE relaying schemes.

Keywords: minimum mean squre error (MMSE), multiple relay, MIMO.

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Authors: L. Al Ahmad, C. Latrille, D. Hainos, D. Blanc, M. Clausse

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A two-dimensional finite volume axisymmetric model is developed to predict the simultaneous heat and mass transfers during the drying of industrial sludge. The simulations were run using COMSOL-Multiphysics 3.5a. The input parameters of the numerical model were acquired from a preliminary experimental work. Results permit to establish correlations describing the evolution of the various parameters as a function of the drying temperature and the sludge water content. The selection and coupling of the equation are validated based on the drying kinetics acquired experimentally at a temperature range of 45-65 °C and absolute pressure range of 200-1000 mbar. The model, incorporating the heat and mass transfer mechanisms at different operating conditions, shows simulated values of temperature and water content. Simulated results are found concordant with the experimental values, only at the first and last drying stages where sludge shrinkage is insignificant. Simulated and experimental results show that sludge drying is favored at high temperatures and low pressure. As experimentally observed, the drying time is reduced by 68% for drying at 65 °C compared to 45 °C under 1 atm. At 65 °C, a 200-mbar absolute pressure vacuum leads to an additional reduction in drying time estimated by 61%. However, the drying rate is underestimated in the intermediate stage. This rate underestimation could be improved in the model by considering the shrinkage phenomena that occurs during sludge drying.

Keywords: Industrial sludge drying, heat transfer, mass transfer, mathematical modelling.

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Authors: Su-Lien Liao

Abstract:

Most of college students in Taiwan do not have sufficient English proficiency to express themselves in written English. Teachers spent a lot of time correcting the errors in students’ English writing, but the results are not satisfactory. This study aims to use blogs as a teaching and learning tool in written English. Before applying peer assessment, students should be trained to be good reviewers.  The teacher starts the course by posting the error analysis of students’ first English composition on blogs as the comment models for students. Then the students will go through the process of drafting, composing, peer response and last revision on blogs. Evaluation questionnaires and interviews will be conducted at the end of the course to see the impact and also students’ perception for the course.

Keywords: Blog, Peer assessment, English writing, Error analysis.

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Authors: M. Nahid, A. Bajit, A. Tamtaoui, E. H. Bouyakhf

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To model the human visual system (HVS) in the region of interest, we propose a new objective metric evaluation adapted to wavelet foveation-based image compression quality measurement, which exploits a foveation setup filter implementation technique in the DWT domain, based especially on the point and region of fixation of the human eye. This model is then used to predict the visible divergences between an original and compressed image with respect to this region field and yields an adapted and local measure error by removing all peripheral errors. The technique, which we call foveation wavelet visible difference prediction (FWVDP), is demonstrated on a number of noisy images all of which have the same local peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), but visibly different errors. We show that the FWVDP reliably predicts the fixation areas of interest where error is masked, due to high image contrast, and the areas where the error is visible, due to low image contrast. The paper also suggests ways in which the FWVDP can be used to determine a visually optimal quantization strategy for foveation-based wavelet coefficients and to produce a quantitative local measure of image quality.

Keywords: Human Visual System, Image Quality, ImageCompression, foveation wavelet, region of interest ROI.

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Authors: Jeries J. Abou-Hanna

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Several techniques exist for determining stress-intensity factors in linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis. These techniques are based on analytical, numerical, and empirical approaches that have been well documented in literature and engineering handbooks. However, not all techniques share the same merit. In addition to overly-conservative results, the numerical methods that require extensive computational effort, and those requiring copious user parameters hinder practicing engineers from efficiently evaluating stress-intensity factors. This paper investigates the prospects of reducing the complexity and required variables to determine stress-intensity factors through the utilization of the stress gradient and a weighting function. The heart of this work resides in the understanding that fracture emanating from stress concentration locations cannot be explained by a single maximum stress value approach, but requires use of a critical volume in which the crack exists. In order to understand the effectiveness of this technique, this study investigated components of different notch geometry and varying levels of stress gradients. Two forms of weighting functions were employed to determine stress-intensity factors and results were compared to analytical exact methods. The results indicated that the “exponential” weighting function was superior to the “absolute” weighting function. An error band +/- 10% was met for cases ranging from a steep stress gradient in a sharp v-notch to the less severe stress transitions of a large circular notch. The incorporation of the proposed method has shown to be a worthwhile consideration.

Keywords: Fracture mechanics, finite element method, stress intensity factor, stress gradient.

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Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

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The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study include granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: National development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models.

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Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

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A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: Clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula.

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