Search results for: Model Order reduction

Authors: Tamara Nestorović, Jean Lefèvre, Stefan Ringwelski, Ulrich Gabbert

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Two approaches for model development of a smart acoustic box are suggested in this paper: the finite element (FE) approach and the subspace identification. Both approaches result in a state-space model, which can be used for obtaining the frequency responses and for the controller design. In order to validate the developed FE model and to perform the subspace identification, an experimental set-up with the acoustic box and dSPACE system was used. Experimentally obtained frequency responses show good agreement with the frequency responses obtained from the FE model and from the identified model.

Keywords: Acoustic box, experimental verification, finite element model, subspace identification.

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Authors: M. A. Omoloye, M. I. Yusuff, O. K. S. Emiola

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The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.

Keywords: Differential Transform Method, Existence and uniqueness, Lassa fever, Runge-Kutta Method.

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Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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Authors: Nasser Ghassembaglou, Armin Rahmatfam, Faramarz Ranjbar

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Using cold EGR method with variable venturi and turbocharger has a very significant effect on reduction of NOX and grime simultaneously. EGR cooler is one of the most important parts in the cold EGR circuit. In this paper optimum design of cooler for working in different percentages of EGR and for determining optimum temperature of exhausted gases, growth of efficiency, reduction of weight, dimension, expenditures, sediment and also optimum performance by using gasoil which has significant amounts of brimstone are investigated and optimized.

Keywords: Cold EGR, NOX, Cooler.

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

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ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to consider other important criteria. From these models, we will consider a specific model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score, based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index, can affect the ABC-item classification. We will focus on items differently assigned to classes and then propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, Multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model.

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Authors: Marius Gheju, Laura Cocheci

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In this study, the reduction of Cr(VI) by use of scrap iron, a cheap and locally available industrial waste, was investigated in continuous system. The greater scrap iron efficiency observed for the first two sections of the column filling indicate that most of the reduction process was carried out in the bottom half of the column filling. This was ascribed to a constant decrease of Cr(VI) concentration inside the filling, as the water front passes from the bottom to the top end of the column. While the bottom section of the column filling was heavily passivated with secondary mineral phases, the top section was less affected by the passivation process; therefore the column filling would likely ensure the reduction of Cr(VI) for time periods longer than 216 hours. The experimental results indicate that fixed beds columns packed with scrap iron could be successfully used for the first step of Cr(VI) polluted wastewater treatment. However, the mass of scrap iron filling should be carefully estimated since it significantly affects the Cr(VI) reduction efficiency.

Keywords: hexavalent chromium, heavy metals, scrap iron, reduction capacity, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Gökhan Polat, Dicle Kocaoğlu Yılmazer, Muhlis Nezihi Sarıdede

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Iron oxides are the main input to produce iron in integrated iron and steel plants. During production of iron from iron oxides, some wastes with high iron content occur. These main wastes can be classified as basic oxygen furnace (BOF) sludge, flue dust and rolling scale. Recycling of these wastes has a great importance for both environmental effects and reduction of production costs. In this study, recycling experiments were performed on basic oxygen furnace sludge, flue dust and rolling scale which contain 53.8%, 54.3% and 70.2% iron respectively. These wastes were mixed together with coke as reducer and these mixtures are pressed to obtain cylindrical briquettes. These briquettes were pressed under various compacting forces from 1 ton to 6 tons. Also, both stoichiometric and twice the stoichiometric cokes were added to investigate effect of coke amount on reduction properties of the waste mixtures. Then, these briquettes were reduced at 1000°C and 1100°C during 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 min in a muffle furnace. According to the results of reduction experiments, the effect of compacting force, temperature and time on reduction ratio of the wastes were determined. It is found that 1 ton compacting force, 150 min reduction time and 1100°C are the optimum conditions to obtain reduction ratio higher than 75%.

Keywords: Iron oxide wastes, reduction, coke, recycling.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

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Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

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Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang, Le Linh

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The fractional–order proportional integral (FOPI) controller tuning rules based on the fractional calculus for the cascade control system are systematically proposed in this paper. Accordingly, the ideal controller is obtained by using internal model control (IMC) approach for both the inner and outer loops, which gives the desired closed-loop responses. On the basis of the fractional calculus, the analytical tuning rules of FOPI controller for the inner loop can be established in the frequency domain. Besides, the outer loop is tuned by using any integer PI/PID controller tuning rules in the literature. The simulation study is considered for the stable process model and the results demonstrate the simplicity, flexibility, and effectiveness of the proposed method for the cascade control system in compared with the other methods.

Keywords: Fractional calculus, fractional–order proportional integral controller, cascade control system, internal model control approach.

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Authors: Nahid Hassanshahi, Ayoub Karimi-Jashni, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

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Due to the economic and environmental benefits of producing less waste, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduces source reduction as one of the most important means to deal with the problems caused by increased landfills and pollution. Waste reduction involves all waste management methods, including source reduction, recycling, and composting, which reduce waste flow to landfills or other disposal facilities. Source reduction of waste can be studied from two perspectives: avoiding waste production, or reducing per capita waste production, and waste deviation that indicates the reduction of waste transfer to landfills. The present paper has investigated home composting as a managerial solution for reduction of waste transfer to landfills. Home composting has many benefits. The use of household waste for the production of compost will result in a much smaller amount of waste being sent to landfills, which in turn will reduce the costs of waste collection, transportation and burial. Reducing the volume of waste for disposal and using them for the production of compost and plant fertilizer might help to recycle the material in a shorter time and to use them effectively in order to preserve the environment and reduce contamination. Producing compost in a home-based manner requires very small piece of land for preparation and recycling compared with other methods. The final product of home-made compost is valuable and helps to grow crops and garden plants. It is also used for modifying the soil structure and maintaining its moisture. The food that is transferred to landfills will spoil and produce leachate after a while. It will also release methane and greenhouse gases. But, composting these materials at home is the best way to manage degradable materials, use them efficiently and reduce environmental pollution. Studies have shown that the benefits of the sale of produced compost and the reduced costs of collecting, transporting, and burying waste can well be responsive to the costs of purchasing home compost machine and the cost of related trainings. Moreover, the process of producing home compost may be profitable within 4 to 5 years and as a result, it will have a major role in reducing waste management.

Keywords: Compost, home compost, reducing waste, waste management.

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: Air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies.

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Authors: L. Torchane

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The study is devoted to define the optimal conditions for the nitriding of pure iron at atmospheric pressure by using NH3- Ar-C3H8 gas mixtures. After studying the mechanisms of phase formation and mass transfer at the gas-solid interface, a mathematical model is developed in order to predict the nitrogen transfer rate in the solid, the ε-carbonitride layer growth rate and the nitrogen and carbon concentration profiles. In order to validate the model and to show its possibilities, it is compared with thermogravimetric experiments, analyses and metallurgical observations (X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and electron microprobe analysis). Results obtained allow us to demonstrate the sound correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Gaseous Nitrocarburizing, Kinetic Model, Diffusion, Layer Growth Kinetic.

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Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Saeed Ebadi Tavallaee, Shahin Vakilipoor Takaloo, Hossein Amiri

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The numerical modeling is performed to study the effects of N₂ addition to the fuel stream on the flame structure and temperature distribution of methane-air swirl diffusion flames with different swirl intensities. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been utilized as the computational tool. Flamelet approach along with modified k-ε model is employed to model the flame characteristics.  The results indicate that the presence of N₂ in the fuel stream leads to the flame temperature reduction. By increasing of swirl intensity, the flame structure changes significantly. The flame has a conical shape in low swirl intensity; however, it has an hour glass-shape with a shorter length in high swirl intensity. The effects of N₂ dilution decrease the flame length in all swirl intensities; however, the rate of reduction is more noticeable in low swirl intensity.

Keywords: Swirl diffusion flame, N2 dilution, OpenFOAM, Swirl intensity.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai

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The three steps of the standard one-way nested grid for a regional scale of the third generation WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) is scrutinized. The model application is enabled to solve the energy balance equation on a coarse resolution grid in order to produce boundary conditions for a smaller area by the nested grid technique. In the present study, the model takes a full advantage of the fine resolution of wind fields in space and time produced by the available U.S. Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model with 1 degree resolution. The nested grid application of the model is developed in order to gradually increase the resolution from the open ocean towards the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) respectively. The model results were compared with buoy observations at Ko Chang, Rayong and Huahin locations which were obtained from the Seawatch project. In addition, the results were also compared with Satun based weather station which was provided from Department of Meteorology, Thailand. The data collected from this station presented the significant wave height (Hs) reached 12.85 m. The results indicated that the tendency of the Hs from the model in the spherical coordinate propagation with deep water condition in the fine grid domain agreed well with the Hs from the observations.

Keywords: energy balance equation, Gulf of Thailand, nested gridapplication, South China Sea, wave model.

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Authors: Jan Doutreloigne

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This paper describes two methods for the reduction of the peak input current during the boosting of Dickson charge pumps. Both methods are implemented in the fully integrated Dickson charge pumps of a high-voltage display driver chip for smart-card applications. Experimental results reveal good correspondence with Spice simulations and show a reduction of the peak input current by a factor of 6 during boosting.

Keywords: Bi-stable display driver, Dickson charge pump, highvoltage generator, peak current reduction, sub-pump boosting, variable frequency boosting.

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Authors: M. Abouelatta, A. Shaker, M. El-Banna, G. T. Sayah, C. Gontrand, A. Zekry

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In this paper, a methodology for physically modeling the intrinsic MOS part and the drift region of the n-channel Laterally Double-diffused MOSFET (LDMOS) is presented. The basic physical effects like velocity saturation, mobility reduction, and nonuniform impurity concentration in the channel are taken into consideration. The analytical model is implemented using MATLAB. A comparison of the simulations from technology computer aided design (TCAD) and that from the proposed analytical model, at room temperature, shows a satisfactory accuracy which is less than 5% for the whole voltage domain.

Keywords: LDMOS, MATLAB, RESURF, modeling, TCAD.

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Authors: Priyanka Sen, Kaibalya Prasad Panda, Soumyakanta Samantaray, Sreyasee Rout, Bishnupriya Biswal

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Deregulation in the power system industry and the invention of new technologies for producing electrical energy has led to innovations in power system planning. Distributed generation (DG) is one of the most attractive technologies that bring different kinds of advantages to a lot of entities, engaged in power systems. In this paper, a model for considering DGs in the power system planning problem is presented. Dynamic power system planning for reduction of maintenance and operational cost is presented in this paper. In addition to that, a modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to find the optimal topology solution. Voltage Profile Improvement Index (VPII) and Line Loss Reduction Index (LLRI) are taken as benefit index of employing DG. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through examination of IEEE 30 bus test system.

Keywords: Distributed generation, line loss reduction index, particle swarm optimization, power system, voltage profile improvement index.

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Authors: Pang Ying Han, Hiew Fu San, Ooi Shih Yin

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Linearization of graph embedding has been emerged as an effective dimensionality reduction technique in pattern recognition. However, it may not be optimal for nonlinearly distributed real world data, such as face, due to its linear nature. So, a kernelization of graph embedding is proposed as a dimensionality reduction technique in face recognition. In order to further boost the recognition capability of the proposed technique, the Fisher-s criterion is opted in the objective function for better data discrimination. The proposed technique is able to characterize the underlying intra-class structure as well as the inter-class separability. Experimental results on FRGC database validate the effectiveness of the proposed technique as a feature descriptor.

Keywords: Face recognition, Fisher discriminant, graph embedding, kernelization.

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Authors: Pham Van Nha, Le Cam Binh

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Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a population-based stochastic optimization algorithm. PSO was inspired by the natural behavior of birds and fish in migration and foraging for food. PSO is considered as a multidisciplinary optimization model that can be applied in various optimization problems. PSO’s ideas are simple and easy to understand but PSO is only applied in simple model problems. We think that in order to expand the applicability of PSO in complex problems, PSO should be described more explicitly in the form of a mathematical model. In this paper, we represent PSO in a mathematical model and apply in the multivariate data classification. First, PSOs general mathematical model (MPSO) is analyzed as a universal optimization model. Then, Model of Optimal Centroids (MOC) is proposed for the multivariate data classification. Experiments were conducted on some benchmark data sets to prove the effectiveness of MOC compared with several proposed schemes.

Keywords: Analysis of optimization, artificial intelligence-based optimization, optimization for learning and data analysis, global optimization.

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Authors: Emad Hazbkhah. Abdolreza Zahiri, Hossein Ghorbanizade Kharazi

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Reducing river sediments through path correction and preservation of river walls leads to considerable reduction of sedimentation at the pumping stations. Path correction and preservation of walls is not limited to one particular method but, depending on various conditions, a combination of several methods can be employed. In this article, we try to review and evaluate methods for preservation of river banks in order to reduce sediments.

Keywords: Erosion , River Banks , Sediments

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Authors: Ayman A. AbuBaker, Rami S.Qahwaji, Musbah J. Aqel, Mohmmad H. Saleh

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Two algorithms are proposed to reduce the storage requirements for mammogram images. The input image goes through a shrinking process that converts the 16-bit images to 8-bits by using pixel-depth conversion algorithm followed by enhancement process. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated objectively and subjectively. A 50% reduction in size is obtained with no loss of significant data at the breast region.

Keywords: Breast cancer, Image processing, Image reduction, Mammograms, Image enhancement

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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Authors: Huan Xiong, Ming Chen

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In order to research Internet quantificationally and better model the performance of network, this paper proposes a novel AS level network performance model (MNPM), it takes autonomous system (AS) as basic modeling unit, measures E2E performance between any two outdegrees of an AS and organizes measurement results into matrix form which called performance matrix (PM). Inter-AS performance calculation is defined according to performance information stored in PM. Simulation has been implemented to verify the correctness of MNPM and a practical application of MNPM (network congestion detection) is given.

Keywords: AS, network performance, model, metric, congestion.

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Authors: Israel Núñez-Hernández, Peter C. Breedveld, Paul B. T. Weustink, Gilberto Gonzalez-A

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This paper presents the use of phasor bond graphs to obtain the steady-state behavior of a synchronous generator. The phasor bond graph elements are built using 2D multibonds, which represent the real and imaginary part of the phasor. The dynamic bond graph model of a salient-pole synchronous generator is showed, and verified viz. a sudden short-circuit test. The reduction of the dynamic model into a phasor representation is described. The previous test is executed on the phasor bond graph model, and its steady-state values are compared with the dynamic response. Besides, the widely used power (torque)-angle curves are obtained by means of the phasor bond graph model, to test the usefulness of this model.

Keywords: Bond graphs, complex power, phasors, synchronous generator, short-circuit, open-circuit, power-angle curve.

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Authors: Yi Huang, Clemens Guehmann

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In order to monitor the thermal behavior of an asynchronous machine with squirrel cage rotor, a 9th-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is implemented to estimate the temperatures of the stator windings, the rotor cage and the stator core. The state-space equations of EKF are established based on the electrical, mechanical and the simplified thermal models of an asynchronous machine. The asynchronous machine with simplified thermal model in Dymola is compiled as DymolaBlock, a physical model in MATLAB/Simulink. The coolant air temperature, three-phase voltages and currents are exported from the physical model and are processed by EKF estimator as inputs. Compared to the temperatures exported from the physical model of the machine, three parts of temperatures can be estimated quite accurately by the EKF estimator. The online EKF estimator is independent from the machine control algorithm and can work under any speed and load condition if the stator current is nonzero current system.

Keywords: Asynchronous machine, extended Kalman filter, resistance, simulation, temperature estimation, thermal model.

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Authors: Y. Deng, X. Li, C. Kwan, B. Raj, R. Stern

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The current speech interfaces in many military applications may be adequate for native speakers. However, the recognition rate drops quite a lot for non-native speakers (people with foreign accents). This is mainly because the nonnative speakers have large temporal and intra-phoneme variations when they pronounce the same words. This problem is also complicated by the presence of large environmental noise such as tank noise, helicopter noise, etc. In this paper, we proposed a novel continuous acoustic feature adaptation algorithm for on-line accent and environmental adaptation. Implemented by incremental singular value decomposition (SVD), the algorithm captures local acoustic variation and runs in real-time. This feature-based adaptation method is then integrated with conventional model-based maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR) algorithm. Extensive experiments have been performed on the NATO non-native speech corpus with baseline acoustic model trained on native American English. The proposed feature-based adaptation algorithm improved the average recognition accuracy by 15%, while the MLLR model based adaptation achieved 11% improvement. The corresponding word error rate (WER) reduction was 25.8% and 2.73%, as compared to that without adaptation. The combined adaptation achieved overall recognition accuracy improvement of 29.5%, and WER reduction of 31.8%, as compared to that without adaptation.

Keywords: speaker adaptation; environment adaptation; robust speech recognition; SVD; non-native speech recognition

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Michael Lissack

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We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

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The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is reexamined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: Ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness.

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