Search results for: nonlinear leastsquares (NLS) model

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Dengue virus is transmitted from person to person through the biting of infected Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4 are four serotypes of this virus. Infection with one of these four serotypes apparently produces permanent immunity to it, but only temporary cross immunity to the others. The length of time during incubation of dengue virus in human and mosquito are considered in this study. The dengue patients are classified into infected and infectious classes. The infectious human can transmit dengue virus to susceptible mosquitoes but infected human can not. The transmission model of this disease is formulated. The human population is divided into susceptible, infected, infectious and recovered classes. The mosquito population is separated into susceptible, infected and infectious classes. Only infectious mosquitoes can transmit dengue virus to the susceptible human. We analyze this model by using dynamical analysis method. The threshold condition is discussed to reduce the outbreak of this disease.

Keywords: Transmission model, intrinsic incubation period, extrinsic incubation period, basic reproductive number, equilibriumstates, local stability.

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Authors: Saleh A. Al-Jufout

Abstract:

This paper presents a procedure of forming the mathematical model of radial electric power systems for simulation of both transient and steady-state conditions. The research idea has been based on nodal voltages technique and on differentiation of Kirchhoff's current law (KCL) applied to each non-reference node of the radial system, the result of which the nodal voltages has been calculated by solving a system of algebraic equations. Currents of the electric power system components have been determined by solving their respective differential equations. Transforming the three-phase coordinate system into Cartesian coordinate system in the model decreased the overall number of equations by one third. The use of Cartesian coordinate system does not ignore the DC component during transient conditions, but restricts the model's implementation for symmetrical modes of operation only. An example of the input data for a four-bus radial electric power system has been calculated.

Keywords: Mathematical Modelling, Radial Power System, Steady-State, Transients

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Authors: A. M. Qahtani, G. B. Wills, A. M. Gravell

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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: Customisation Software Products, Global Software Engineering, Local Decision Making, Requirement Engineering, Simulation Model.

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Authors: M. Abdallah

Abstract:

Urban development requires deep excavations near buildings and other structures. Deep excavation has become more a necessity for better utilization of space as the population of the world has dramatically increased. In Lebanon, some urban areas are very crowded and lack spaces for new buildings and underground projects, which makes the usage of underground space indispensable. In this paper, a numerical modeling is performed using the finite element method to study the deep excavation-diaphragm wall soil-structure interaction in the case of nonlinear soil behavior. The study is focused on a comparison of the results obtained using different support systems. Furthermore, a parametric study is performed according to the remoteness of the structure.

Keywords: Deep excavation, ground anchors, interaction, struts.

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Authors: Siamak Rasulzadeh

Abstract:

Graph transformation has recently become more and more popular as a general visual modeling language to formally state the dynamic semantics of the designed models. Especially, it is a very natural formalism for languages which basically are graph (e.g. UML). Using this technique, we present a highly understandable yet precise approach to formally model and analyze the behavioral semantics of UML 2.0 Activity diagrams. In our proposal, AGG is used to design Activities, then using our previous approach to model checking graph transformation systems, designers can verify and analyze designed Activity diagrams by checking the interesting properties as combination of graph rules and LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) formulas on the Activities.

Keywords: UML 2.0 Activity, Verification, Model Checking, Graph Transformation, Dynamic Semantics.

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Authors: Alaoua Bouaicha, Fahim Kahlouche, Abdelhamid Benouali

Abstract:

Many embankment dams have suffered failures during earthquakes due to the increase of pore water pressure under seismic loading. After analyzing of the behavior of embankment dams under severe earthquakes, major advances have been attained in the understanding of the seismic action on dams. The present study concerns numerical analysis of the seismic response of earth dams. The procedure uses a nonlinear stress-strain relation incorporated into the code FLAC2D based on the finite difference method. This analysis provides the variation of the pore water pressure and horizontal displacement.

Keywords: Earthquake, numerical analysis, FLAC2D, displacement, Embankment Dam, pore water pressure.

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Authors: T. Esmaeili, A. A. Dehghani, A. R. Zahiri, K. Suzuki

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Due to the three- dimensional flow pattern interacting with bed material, the process of local scour around bridge piers is complex. Modeling 3D flow field and scour hole evolution around a bridge pier is more feasible nowadays because the computational cost and computational time have significantly decreased. In order to evaluate local flow and scouring around a bridge pier, a completely three-dimensional numerical model, SSIIM program, was used. The model solves 3-D Navier-Stokes equations and a bed load conservation equation. The model was applied to simulate local flow and scouring around a bridge pier in a large natural river with four piers. Computation for 1 day of flood condition was carried out to predict the maximum local scour depth. The results show that the SSIIM program can be used efficiently for simulating the scouring in natural rivers. The results also showed that among the various turbulence models, the k-ω model gives more reasonable results.

Keywords: Bridge piers, flood, numerical simulation, SSIIM.

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Authors: Abdallah Al-Shammari

Abstract:

This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on production levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or variations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and demand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any chemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants, there are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which require more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed in the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order to obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach is applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex consists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on the obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can determinate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters, mainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its optimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e. stability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints that need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability limits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in understanding the interaction between some model parameters and deciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows that maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate products are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the optimum solution

Keywords: Linear programming, Petrochemicals, stability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel, Govind Shay Sharma

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In this paper, we explore an ecosystem that contains a three-species food chain. The first and second species are in competition with one another for resources. However, the third species plays an important role in providing non-linear Crowley-Martin functional support for the first species. Additionally, the third species consumes the second species in a linear fashion, taking advantage of the available resources. This intricate balance ensures the survival of all three species in the ecosystem. A set of non-linear isolated first-order differential equations establish this model. We examine the system's stability at all potential equilibrium locations using the perturbed technique. Furthermore, by spending a lot of time observing the species in their natural habitat, the numerical illustrations at suitable parameter values for the model are shown.

Keywords: Competition, predator, response function, local stability, numerical simulations.

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Authors: C. Perez, O. Reinoso, N. Garcia, J. M. Sabater, L. Gracia

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For high-speed control of robots, a good knowledge of system modelling is necessary to obtain the desired bandwidth. In this paper, we present a cartesian robot with a pan/tilt unit in end-effector (5 dof). This robot is implemented with powerful direct drive AC induction machines. The dynamic model, parameter identification and model validation of the robot are studied (including actuators). This work considers the cartesian robot coupled and non linear (contrary to normal considerations for this type of robots). The mechanical and control architecture proposed in this paper is efficient for industrial and research application in which high speed, well known model and very high accuracy are required.

Keywords: Robot modelling, parameter identification and validation, AC servo-motors.

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Authors: V. G. Rajesh, M. V. Rajesh

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In rotating machinery one of the critical components that is prone to premature failure is the rolling bearing. Consequently, early warning of an imminent bearing failure is much critical to the safety and reliability of any high speed rotating machines. This study is concerned with the application of Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) in fault detection of rolling element bearings in rotating machinery. Based on the results from this study it is reported that the RQA variable, percent determinism, is sensitive to the type of fault investigated and therefore can provide useful information on bearing damage in rolling element bearings.

Keywords: Bearing fault detection, machine vibrations, nonlinear time series analysis, recurrence quantification analysis.

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Authors: Rida B. Arieby

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This study deals with the experimental investigation and theoretical modeling of Semi crystalline polymeric materials with a rubbery amorphous phase (HDPE) subjected to a uniaxial cyclic tests with various maximum strain levels, even at large deformation. Each cycle is loaded in tension up to certain maximum strain and then unloaded down to zero stress with N number of cycles. This work is focuses on the measure of the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage during this kind of tests. On the basis of thermodynamics of relaxation processes, a constitutive model for large strain deformation has been developed, taking into account the damage effect, to predict the complex elasto-viscoelastic-viscoplastic behavior of material. A direct comparison between the model predictions and the experimental data show that the model accurately captures the material response. The model is also capable of predicting the influence damage causing volume variation.

Keywords: Cyclic test, large strain, polymers semi-crystalline, Volume strain, Thermodynamics of Irreversible Processes.

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: Cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, unconfined compressive strength, multi-regression model.

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Authors: Siwar Fadhel, Imen Bahri, Man Zhang

Abstract:

The switched reluctance machine (SRM) has undeniable qualities in terms of low cost and mechanical robustness. However, its highly nonlinear character and its uncertain parameters justify the development of complicated controls. In this paper, authors present the design of a robust H-infinity current controller for an 8/6 SRM with taking into account the nonlinearity of the SRM and with rejection of disturbances. The electromagnetic torque is indirectly regulated through the current controller. To show the performances of this control, a robustness analysis is performed by comparing the H-infinity and PI controller simulation results. This comparison demonstrates better performances for the presented controller. The effectiveness and robustness of the presented controller are also demonstrated by experimental tests.

Keywords: Current regulation, experimentation, robust H-infinity control, switched reluctance machine.

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Authors: Hamidreza Babaali, Alireza Mojtahedi, Nasim Soori, Saba Soori

Abstract:

Hydraulic jump is one of the effective ways of energy dissipation in stilling basins that the ‎energy is highly dissipated by jumping. Adverse slope surface at the end stilling basin is ‎caused to increase energy dissipation and stability of the hydraulic jump. In this study, the adverse slope ‎has been added to end of United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) II stilling basin in hydraulic model of Nazloochay dam with scale 1:40, and flow simulated into stilling basin using Flow-3D ‎software. The numerical model is verified by experimental data of water depth in ‎stilling basin. Then, the parameters of water level profile, Froude Number, pressure, air ‎entrainment and turbulent dissipation investigated for discharging 300 m³/s using K-Ɛ and Re-Normalization Group (RNG) turbulence ‎models. The results showed a good agreement between numerical and experimental model‎ as ‎numerical model can be used to optimize of stilling basins.‎

Keywords: Experimental and numerical modeling, end adverse slope, flow ‎parameters, USBR II Stilling Basin.

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Authors: José R. G. Braga, Joice B. Mendes, Guilherme H. Caponetto, Alexandre C. B. Ramos

Abstract:

With major technological advances and to reduce the cost of training apprentices for real-time critical systems, it was necessary the development of Intelligent Tutoring Systems for training apprentices in these systems. These systems, in general, have interactive features so that the learning is actually more efficient, making the learner more familiar with the mechanism in question. In the home stage of learning, tests are performed to obtain the student's income, a measure on their use. The aim of this paper is to present a framework to model an Intelligent Tutoring Systems using the UML language. The various steps of the analysis are considered the diagrams required to build a general model, whose purpose is to present the different perspectives of its development.

Keywords: Computer based training, Hypermedia, Software modeling.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: Limit cycles, Nonlinear dynamical system, Real time obstacle avoidance.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: S. Xiao, M. B. Shuai, M. F. Chu

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The hydrolysis kinetics of polycrystalline lithium hydride (LiH) in argon at various low humidities was measured by gravimetry and Raman spectroscopy with ambient water concentration ranging from 200 to 1200 ppm. The results showed that LiH hydrolysis curve revealed a paralinear shape, which was attributed to two different reaction stages that forming different products as explained by the 'Layer Diffusion Control' model. Based on the model, a novel two-stage rate equation for LiH hydrolysis reactions was developed and used to fit the experimental data for determination of Li2O steady thickness Hs and the ultimate hydrolysis rate vs. The fitted data presented a rise of Hs as ambient water concentration cw increased. However, in spite of the negative effect imposed by Hs increasing, the upward trend of vs remained, which implied that water concentration, rather than Li2O thickness, played a predominant role in LiH hydrolysis kinetics. In addition, the proportional relationship between vsHs and cw predicted by rate equation and confirmed by gravimetric data validated the model in such conditions.

Keywords: Hydrolysis kinetics, ‘Layer Diffusion Control’ model, Lithium hydride

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Authors: Abobaker Mohammed Qasem Farhan, Shangming Yang, Mohammed Al-Nehari

Abstract:

Pneumonia is a kind of lung disease that creates congestion in the chest. Such pneumonic conditions lead to loss of life due to the severity of high congestion. Pneumonic lung disease is caused by viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, or COVID-19 induced pneumonia. The early prediction and classification of such lung diseases help reduce the mortality rate. We propose the automatic Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system in this paper using the deep learning approach. The proposed CAD system takes input from raw computerized tomography (CT) scans of the patient's chest and automatically predicts disease classification. We designed the Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm (HDLA) to improve accuracy and reduce processing requirements. The raw CT scans are pre-processed first to enhance their quality for further analysis. We then applied a hybrid model that consists of automatic feature extraction and classification. We propose the robust 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to extract the automatic features from the pre-processed CT image. This CNN model assures feature learning with extremely effective 1D feature extraction for each input CT image. The outcome of the 2D CNN model is then normalized using the Min-Max technique. The second step of the proposed hybrid model is related to training and classification using different classifiers. The simulation outcomes using the publicly available dataset prove the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model compared to state-of-art algorithms.

Keywords: CT scans, COVID-19, deep learning, image processing, pneumonia, lung disease.

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Authors: Marco Antonio Lara De la Calleja, María Catalina Ovando Chico, Eduardo Lopez Ruiz

Abstract:

Community empowerment has been proved to be a key element in the solution of the food security problem. As a result of a conceptual analysis, it was found that agricultural production, economic development and governance, are the traditional basis of food security models. Although the literature points to social inclusion as an important factor for food security, no model has considered it as the basis of it. The aim of this research is to identify different dimensions that make an integral model for food security, with emphasis on community empowerment. A diagnosis was made in the study community (Tatoxcac, Zacapoaxtla, Puebla), to know the aspects that impact the level of food insecurity. With a statistical sample integrated by 200 families, the Latin American and Caribbean Food Security Scale (ELCSA) was applied, finding that: in households composed by adults and children, have moderated food insecurity, (ELCSA scale has three levels, low, moderated and high); that result is produced mainly by the economic income capacity and the diversity of the diet on its food. With that being said, a model was developed to promote food security through five dimensions: 1. Regional context of the community; 2. Structure and system of local food; 3. Health and nutrition; 4. Information and technology access; and 5. Self-awareness and empowerment. The specific actions on each axis of the model, allowed a systemic approach needed to attend food security in the community, through the empowerment of society. It is concluded that the self-awareness of local communities is an area of extreme importance, which must be taken into account for participatory schemes to improve food security. In the long term, the model requires the integrated participation of different actors, such as government, companies and universities, to solve something such vital as food security.

Keywords: Community empowerment, food security, model, systemic approach.

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Authors: Khin Thanda Soe

Abstract:

A model to identify the lifetime of target tracking wireless sensor network is proposed. The model is a static clusterbased architecture and aims to provide two factors. First, it is to increase the lifetime of target tracking wireless sensor network. Secondly, it is to enable good localization result with low energy consumption for each sensor in the network. The model consists of heterogeneous sensors and each sensing member node in a cluster uses two operation modes–active mode and sleep mode. The performance results illustrate that the proposed architecture consumes less energy and increases lifetime than centralized and dynamic clustering architectures, for target tracking sensor network.

Keywords: Network lifetime, Target Localization, TargetTracking, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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Authors: A. Izadbakhsh, M. M. Fateh

Abstract:

A model-free robust control (MFRC) approach is proposed for position control of robot manipulators in the state space. The control approach is verified analytically to be robust subject to uncertainties including external disturbances, unmodeled dynamics, and parametric uncertainties. There is a high flexibility to work on different systems including actuators by the use of the proposed control approach. The proposed control approach can guarantee the robustness of control system. A PUMA 560 robot driven by geared permanent magnet dc motors is simulated. The simulation results show a satisfactory performance for control system under technical specifications. KeywordsModel-free, robust control, position control, PUMA 560.

Keywords: Model-free, robust control, position control, PUMA 560.

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Authors: Ammar Alsabery, Habibis Saleh, Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

Abstract:

Unsteady natural convection and heat transfer in a square cavity partially filled with porous media using a thermal non-equilibrium model is studied in this paper. The left vertical wall is maintained at a constant hot temperature Th and the right vertical wall is maintained at a constant cold temperature Tc, while the horizontal walls are adiabatic. The governing equations are obtained by applying the Darcy model and Boussinesq approximation. COMSOL’s finite element method is used to solve the non-dimensional governing equations together with specified boundary conditions. The governing parameters of this study are the Rayleigh number (Ra = 10^5, and Ra = 10^6 ), Darcy namber (Da = 10^−2, and Da = 10^−3), the modified thermal conductivity ratio (10^−1 ≤ γ ≤ 10^4), the inter-phase heat transfer coefficien (10^−1 ≤ H ≤ 10^3) and the time dependent (0.001 ≤ τ ≤ 0.2). The results presented for values of the governing parameters in terms of streamlines in both fluid/porous-layer, isotherms of fluid in fluid/porous-layer, isotherms of solid in porous layer, and average Nusselt number.

Keywords: Unsteady natural convection, Thermal non-equilibrium model, Darcy model.

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Authors: Päivi J. Tossavainen , Leena Alakoski, Katri Ojasalo

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Building a service-centric business model requires new knowledge and capabilities in companies. This paper enlightens the challenges small and medium sized firms (SMEs) face when developing their service-centric business models. This paper examines the premise for knowledge transfer and capability development required. The objective of this paper is to increase knowledge about SME-s transformation to service-centric business models.This paper reports an action research based case study. The paper provides empirical evidence from three case companies. The empirical data was collected through multiple methods. The findings of the paper are: First, the developed model to analyze the current state in companies. Second, the process of building the service – centric business models. Third, the selection of suitable service development methods. The lack of a holistic understanding on service logic suggests that SMEs need practical and easy to use methods to improve their business

Keywords: service-centric business model, service development, action research, case study

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Authors: Sunil Jadav, Rajeevan Chandel Munish Vashishath

Abstract:

Today’s VLSI networks demands for high speed. And in this work the compact form mathematical model for current mode signalling in VLSI interconnects is presented.RLC interconnect line is modelled using characteristic impedance of transmission line and inductive effect. The on-chip inductance effect is dominant at lower technology node is emulated into an equivalent resistance. First order transfer function is designed using finite difference equation, Laplace transform and by applying the boundary conditions at the source and load termination. It has been observed that the dominant pole determines system response and delay in the proposed model. The novel proposed current mode model shows superior performance as compared to voltage mode signalling. Analysis shows that current mode signalling in VLSI interconnects provides 2.8 times better delay performance than voltage mode. Secondly the damping factor of a lumped RLC circuit is shown to be a useful figure of merit.

Keywords: Current Mode, Voltage Mode, VLSI Interconnect.

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Authors: Francesco Caputo, Giuseppe Lamanna, Alessandro Soprano

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This work is focused on the numerical prediction of the fracture resistance of a flat stiffened panel made of the aluminium alloy 2024 T3 under a monotonic traction condition. The performed numerical simulations have been based on the micromechanical Gurson-Tvergaard (GT) model for ductile damage. The applicability of the GT model to this kind of structural problems has been studied and assessed by comparing numerical results, obtained by using the WARP 3D finite element code, with experimental data available in literature. In the sequel a home-made procedure is presented, which aims to increase the residual strength of a cracked stiffened aluminum panel and which is based on the stochastic design improvement (SDI) technique; a whole application example is then given to illustrate the said technique.

Keywords: Residual strength, R-Curve, Gurson model, SDI.

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Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo

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This study aims to provide sub-hourly streamflow predictions and associated rating curves for small catchments of intermittent and torrential flow regime characterized by flash floods occurring especially during April and November. The methodology entails two lumped conceptual hydrological models which work in series. The total model is based upon eleven parameters and shows good flexibility in handling different input sets. Runoff Coefficient has contributed to improving the model’s performances and has been treated as an additional parameter; while Sensitivity Analysis has highlighted how slight changes in the model’s input can lead to changes in model’s output. The adopted procedure is steady and useful to give very practical engineering information at the expense of a parsimonious request both in input data and in the number of adopted parameters. According to the obtained results, the authors encourage the test of this combined procedure on different hydrological scenarios in order to provide information for poorly monitored catchments and not updated sites.

Keywords: Streamflow rating curve, chronological data, streamflow sequences, conceptual models.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

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