Search results for: Payback period.

Authors: T. Santiboon

Abstract:

This research were investigated, determined, and analyzed of the climate characteristically change in the provincial Udon Thani in the period of 60 surrounding years from 1951 to 2010 A.D. that it-s transferred to effects of climatologically data for determining global warming. Statistically significant were not found for the 60 years- data (R2<0.81). Statistically significant were found after adapted data followed as the Sun Spot cycle in 11 year periods, at the level 0.001 (R2= 1.00). These results indicate the Udon Thani-s weather are affected change; temperatures and evaporation were increased, but rainfall and number days of rainfall, cyclone storm, wind speed, and humidity, forest assessment were decreased. The effects of thermal energy from the sun radiation energy and human activities that they-re followed as the sunspot cycle are able to be predicted from the last to the future of the uniformitarian-s the climate change and global warming effect of the world.

Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Udon Thani Province Weather

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Authors: I.V. Saradhi, G.G. Pandit, V.D. Puranik

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Increasing concerns over climate change have limited the liberal usage of available energy technology options. India faces a formidable challenge to meet its energy needs and provide adequate energy of desired quality in various forms to users in sustainable manner at reasonable costs. In this paper, work carried out with an objective to study the role of various energy technology options under different scenarios namely base line scenario, high nuclear scenario, high renewable scenario, low growth and high growth rate scenario. The study has been carried out using Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) model which evaluates the alternative energy supply strategies with user defined constraints on fuel availability, environmental regulations etc. The projected electricity demand, at the end of study period i.e. 2035 is 500490 MWYr. The model predicted the share of the demand by Thermal: 428170 MWYr, Hydro: 40320 MWYr, Nuclear: 14000 MWYr, Wind: 18000 MWYr in the base line scenario. Coal remains the dominant fuel for production of electricity during the study period. However, the import dependency of coal increased during the study period. In baseline scenario the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions upto 2035 are about 11,000 million tones of CO2. In the scenario of high nuclear capacity the carbon dioxide emissions reduced by 10 % when nuclear energy share increased to 9 % compared to 3 % in baseline scenario. Similarly aggressive use of renewables reduces 4 % of carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, energy, electricity, message.

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Authors: Aditi Bhadra, Sutapa Choudhury, Daita Kar

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Flood zoning studies have become more efficient in recent years because of the availability of advanced computational facilities and use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the present study, flood inundated areas were mapped using GIS for the Dikrong river basin of Arunachal Pradesh, India, corresponding to different return periods (2, 5, 25, 50, and 100 years). Further, the developed inundation maps corresponding to 25, 50, and 100 year return period floods were compared to corresponding maps developed by conventional methods as reported in the Brahmaputra Board Master Plan for Dikrong basin. It was found that, the average deviation of modelled flood inundation areas from reported map inundation areas is below 5% (4.52%). Therefore, it can be said that the modelled flood inundation areas matched satisfactorily with reported map inundation areas. Hence, GIS techniques were proved to be successful in extracting the flood inundation extent in a time and cost effective manner for the remotely located hilly basin of Dikrong, where conducting conventional surveys is very difficult.

Keywords: Flood hazard mapping, GIS, inundation area, return period.

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Authors: Naser Ahmadi Sani, Karim Solaimani, Lida Razaghnia, Jalal Zandi

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In recent decades, rapid and incorrect changes in land-use have been associated with consequences such as natural resources degradation and environmental pollution. Detecting changes in land-use is one of the tools for natural resource management and assessment of changes in ecosystems. The target of this research is studying the land-use changes in Haraz basin with an area of 677000 hectares in a 15 years period (1996 to 2011) using LANDSAT data. Therefore, the quality of the images was first evaluated. Various enhancement methods for creating synthetic bonds were used in the analysis. Separate training sites were selected for each image. Then the images of each period were classified in 9 classes using supervised classification method and the maximum likelihood algorithm. Finally, the changes were extracted in GIS environment. The results showed that these changes are an alarm for the HARAZ basin status in future. The reason is that 27% of the area has been changed, which is related to changing the range lands to bare land and dry farming and also changing the dense forest to sparse forest, horticulture, farming land and residential area.

Keywords: HARAZ Basin, Change Detection, Land-use, Satellite Data.

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Authors: Vladimir M. Tomović, Branislav V. Šojić, Predrag M. Ikonić, Ljiljana S. Petrović, Anamarija I. Mandić, Natalija R. Džinić, Snežana B. Škaljac, Tatjana A. Tasić, Marija R. Jokanović

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In this paper influence of packaging method (vacuum and modified atmosphere packaging) on lipid oxidative stability and sensory properties of odor and taste of the traditional sausage Petrovská klobása were examined. These parameters were examined during storage period (7 months). In the end of storage period, vacuum packed sausage showed better oxidative stability. Propanal content was significantly lower (P<0.05) in vacuum packed sausage compared to these values in unpacked and modified atmosphere packaging sausage. Hexanal content in vacuum packed sausage was 1.85 μg/g, in MAP sausage 2.98 μg/g and in unpacked sausage 4.94 μg/g. After 2 and 7 months of storage, sausages packed in vacuum had the highest grades for sensory properties of odor and taste.

Keywords: Lipid oxidation, MAP, sensory properties, traditional sausage, vacuum.

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Authors: Akhtar N, Khan BA, Khan MS, Mahmood T, Khan HMS, Iqbal M, Bashir S

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This study was designed to formulate, pharmaceutically evaluate a topical skin-care cream (w/o emulsion) of Aloe Vera versus its vehicle (Base) as control and determine their effects on Stratum Corneum (SC) water content and Transepidermal water loss (TEWL). Base containing no extract and a Formulation containing 3% concentrated extract of Aloe Vera was developed by entrapping in the inner aqueous phase of w/o emulsion (cream). Lemon oil was incorporated to improve the odor. Both the Base and Formulation were stored at 8°C ±0.1°C (in refrigerator), 25°C±0.1°C, 40°C±0.1°C and 40°C± 0.1°C with 75% RH (in incubator) for a period of 4 weeks to predict their stability. The evaluation parameters consisted of color, smell, type of emulsion, phase separation, electrical conductivity, centrifugation, liquefaction and pH. Both the Base and Formulation were applied to the cheeks of 21 healthy human volunteers for a period of 8 weeks Stratum corneum (SC) water content and Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) were monitored every week to measure any effect produced by these topical creams. The expected organoleptic stability of creams was achieved from 4 weeks in-vitro study period. Odor was disappeared with the passage of time due to volatilization of lemon oil. Both the Base and Formulation produced significant (p≤0.05) changes in TEWL with respect to time. SC water content was significantly (p≤0.05) increased by the Formulation while the Base has insignificant (p 0.05) effects on SC water content. The newly formulated cream of Aloe Vera, applied is suitable for improvement and quantitative monitoring of skin hydration level (SC water content/ moisturizing effects) and reducing TEWL in people with dry skin.

Keywords: Aloe Vera; Skin; Stratum corneum (SC) water content and Transepidermal water loss (TEWL).

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Authors: J. Elbl, J. K. Friedel, J. Záhora, L. Plošek, A. Kintl, J. Přichystalová, J. Hynšt, L. Dostálová, K. Zákoutská

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This work presents the first results from the long-term experiment, which is focused on the impact of intensive rainfall and long period of drought on microbial activities in soil. Fifteen lysimeters were prepared in the area of our interest. This area is a protection zone of underground source of drinking water. These lysimeters were filed with topsoil and subsoil collected in this area and divided into two groups. These groups differ in fertilization and amount of water received during the growing season. Amount of microbial biomass and leaching of mineral nitrogen and phosphates were chosen as main indicators of microbial activities in soil. Content of mineral nitrogen and phosphates was measured in soil solution, which was collected from each lysimeters. Amount of microbial biomass was determined in soil samples that were taken from the lysimeters before and after the long period of drought and intensive rainfall.

Keywords: Mineral nitrogen, Phosphates, Microbial activities, Drought, Precipitation.

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Authors: Farshad Mehrabi, Ali kheirodin, Mohsen Gerami

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Ambiguities in effects of earthquake on various structures in all earthquake codes would necessitate more study and research concerning influential factors on dynamic behavior. Previous studies which were done on different features in different buildings play a major role in the type of response a structure makes to lateral vibrations. Diagnosing each of these irregularities can help structure designers in choosing appropriate setbacks for decreasing possible damages. Therefore vertical setback is one of the irregularity factors in the height of the building where can be seen in skyscrapers and hotels. Previous researches reveal notable changes in the place of these setbacks showing dynamic response of the structure. Consequently analyzing 48 models of concrete frames for 3, 6 and 9 stories heights with three different bays in general shape of a surface decline by height have been constructed in ETABS2000 software, and then the shape effect of each and every one of these frames in period scale has been discussed. The result of this study reveals that not only mass, stiffness and height but also shape of the frame is influential.

Keywords: period, concrete frame, irregularity in height, decrease in plan surface, dynamic behavior

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, Trend equations.

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

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The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005 and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period, are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these coefficients from initial to forecast periods.

Keywords: Forecast, ICT, Structural changes, Japanese economies.

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Authors: S. T. Tan, H. Hashim, W. S. Ho, C. T. Lee

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Rapid economic development and population growth in Malaysia had accelerated the generation of solid waste. This issue gives pressure for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW) to take place in Malaysia due to the increased cost of landfill. This paper discusses optimal planning of waste-to-energy (WTE) using a combinatorial simulation and optimization model through mixed integer linear programming (MILP) approach. The proposed multi-period model is tested in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) as case study for a period of 12 years (2011 -2025) to illustrate the economic potential and tradeoffs involved in this study. In this paper, 3 scenarios have been used to demonstrate the applicability of the model: (1) Incineration scenario (2) Landfill scenario (3) Optimal scenario. The model revealed that the minimum cost of electricity generation from 9,995,855 tonnes of MSW is estimated as USD 387million with a total electricity generation of 50MW /yr in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), optimization, solid waste management (SWM), Waste-to-energy (WTE).

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Authors: Brownhilder N. Neneh, A. Van Aardt Smit

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Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings (IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock markets with different trends emerging over different time periods. This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011. Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share increases above the median price for any given period, the level of underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require further investigation to uncover this pattern.

Keywords: Underpricing, hot and cold markets, South Africa, JSE.

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Authors: E. N. Hasanov, K. Y. Yusifova, M. A. Ali

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Rabies is a zoonotic disease that causes acute encephalitis in domestic and wild carnivores. The goal of this investigation was to analyze the data on oral vaccination of wild canids and stray dogs in Azerbaijan. Before the start of vaccination campaign conducted by the IDEA (International Dialogue for Environmental Action) Animal Care Center (IACC), all rabies cases in Azerbaijan for the period of 2017-2020 were analyzed. So, 30 regions for oral immunization with the Rabadrop vaccine were selected. In total, 95.9 thousand doses of baits were scattered in 30 regions, 970 (0.97%) remained intact. In addition, a campaign to sterilize and vaccinate stray dogs and cats undoubtedly had a positive impact on reducing the dynamics of rabies incidence. During the period 2017-2020, 2,339 dogs and 2,962 cats were sterilized and vaccinated under this program. It can be noted that the risk of rabies infection can be reduced through special preventive measures against disease reservoirs, which include oral immunization of wild and stray animals.

Keywords: Rabies, vaccination, oral immunization, wild canids, stray dogs, vaccine, disease reservoirs.

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Authors: Mahmoud R. Shaghaghian

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Amount of dissolve oxygen in a river has a great direct affect on aquatic macroinvertebrates and this would influence on the region ecosystem indirectly. In this paper it is tried to predict dissolved oxygen in rivers by employing an easy Fuzzy Logic Modeling, Wang Mendel method. This model just uses previous records to estimate upcoming values. For this purpose daily and hourly records of eight stations in Au Sable watershed in Michigan, United States are employed for 12 years and 50 days period respectively. Calculations indicate that for long period prediction it is better to increase input intervals. But for filling missed data it is advisable to decrease the interval. Increasing partitioning of input and output features influence a little on accuracy but make the model too time consuming. Increment in number of input data also act like number of partitioning. Large amount of train data does not modify accuracy essentially, so, an optimum training length should be selected.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Au Sable, fuzzy logic modeling, Wang Mendel.

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Authors: C. Iihoshi, G.A. MacRae, G.W. Rodgers, J.G. Chase

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Slab sliding system (SSS) with Coulomb friction  interface between slab and supporting frame is a passive structural  vibration control technology. The system can significantly reduce the  slab acceleration and accompanied lateral force of the frame. At the  same time it is expected to cause the slab displacement magnification  by sliding movement. To obtain the general comprehensive seismic  response of a single story structure, inelastic response spectra were  computed for a large ensemble of ground motions and a practical range  of structural periods and friction coefficient values. It was shown that  long period structures have no trade-off relation between force  reduction and displacement magnification with respect to elastic  response, unlike short period structures. For structures with the  majority of mass in the slab, the displacement magnification value can  be predicted according to simple inelastic displacement relation for  inelastically responding SDOF structures because the system behaves  elastically to a SDOF structure.

 

Keywords: Earthquake, Isolation, Slab, Sliding.

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Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

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Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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Authors: Valbona Sota, Efigjeni Kongjika

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Wild almond is a woody species, which is difficult to propagate either generatively by seed or by vegetative methods (grafting or cuttings) and also considered as Endangered (EN) in Albania based on IUCN criteria. As a wild relative of cultivated fruit trees, this species represents a source of genetic variability and can be very important in breeding programs and cultivation. For this reason, it would be of interest to use an effective method of in vitro mid-term conservation, which involves strategies to slow plant growth through physicochemical alterations of in vitro growth conditions. Multiplication of wild almond was carried out using zygotic embryos, as primary explants, with the purpose to develop a successful propagation protocol. Results showed that zygotic embryos can proliferate through direct or indirect organogenesis. During subculture, stage was obtained a great number of new plantlets identical to mother plants derived from the zygotic embryos. All in vitro plantlets obtained from subcultures underwent in vitro conservation by minimal growth in low temperature (4ºC) and darkness. The efficiency of this technique was evaluated for 3, 6, and 10 months of conservation period. Maintenance in these conditions reduced micro cuttings growth. Survival and regeneration rates for each period were evaluated and resulted that the maximal time of conservation without subculture on 4ºC was 10 months, but survival and regeneration rates were significantly reduced, specifically 15.6% and 7.6%. An optimal period of conservation in these conditions can be considered the 5-6 months storage, which can lead to 60-50% of survival and regeneration rates. This protocol may be beneficial for mass propagation, mid-term conservation, and for genetic manipulation of wild almond.

Keywords: Micropropagation, minimal growth, storage, wild almond.

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Authors: Muhammad Waqar, Touqir Ahmad Afridi, Quratulain Soomro

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Radiation is a ghost causing unimaginable physical damage, but its harm is not inevitable. The panic created by previously reported worst-case scenarios i.e., Three Mile Island, Fukushima, Chernobyl, has adversely affected the attitude of radiation workers towards the profession. The psychological effect of radiation-related catastrophes creates an invisible barrier that reduces the efficiency of radiation workers. Careful handling and proper monitoring of radiation decreases the hazards of radiation and proves that the psychological impairment of radiation is myriad fold adverse than its physiological damage. Thermoluminescent Dosimeter (TLD) badges with unique identity numbers were provided to 36 radiation workers for a period of one year (2021). TLDs were read quarterly, and doses were recorded for every radiation worker. Annual doses were recorded and compared with national and international standards. Moreover, the period for which an individual worker is expected to reach one year limit of 20 mSv was also calculated. The highest radiation dose for the radiation worker in 2021 was found at 3.2 mSv, which was 16% of the permissible annual dose limit. The average occupational radiation doses ranged from 1.0 mSv to 3.20 mSv. 64% of the employees did not exceed the 10% of the annual limit, receiving less than 2 mSv. The least time for 20 mSv completion was found 6.25 years for the hot-lab technician. As a whole, the 20 mSv completion period ranged from 6.25 to 20 years. We concluded that the annual professional radiation doses were well within the permissible limits of Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The fear of radiation is unnecessary and it creates reluctance towards performing their assigned duties and it is also not favorable for the institute. It must be abolished through education and training sessions.

Keywords: TLD, thermoluminescent dosimeter, psychological impact, radiation dose, annual dose limit, PNRA, ICRP, IAEA.

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Authors: U.E.Mahrous, A. Abd El-Aziz, A.I.El-Shiekh, S.Z. EL-kholya

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Twenty four New Zealand white rabbits (12 does and 12 bucks) and twenty four Flanders (12 does and 12 bucks) rabbits, allotted into two feeding regime (6 for each breed, 3 males and 3 females) first one fed commercial ration and second one fed commercial diet plus sodium butyrate (300 g/ton). The obtained results showed that at end of 8th week experimental period New Zealand white rabbits were heavier body weight than Flanders rabbits (1934.55+39.05 vs. 1802.5+30.99 g); significantly high body weight gain during experimental period especially during 8th week (136.1+3.5 vs. 126.8+1.8 g/week); better feed conversion ratio during all weeks of experiment from first week (3.07+0.16 vs. 3.12+0.10) till the 8th week of experiment (5.54+0.16 vs. 5.76+0.07) with significantly high dressing percentages (0.54+0.01 vs. 0.52+0.01). Also all carcass cuts were significantly high in New Zealand white rabbits than Flanders. Females rabbits (at the same age) were lower body weight than males from start of experiment (941.1+39.8 vs.972.1+33.5 g) till the end of experiment (1833.64+37.69 vs. 1903.41+36.93 g); gained less during all weeks of experiment except during 8th week (132.1+2.3 vs. 130.9+3.4 g/week), with lower dressing percentage (0.52+0.01 vs. 0.53+0.01) and lighter carcass cuts than males, however, they had better feed conversion ratio during 1st week, 7th week and 8th week of experiment. Addition of 300g sodium butyrate/ton of rabbit increased the body weight of rabbits at the end of experimental period (1882.71+26.45 vs. 1851.5+49.82 g); improve body weight gain at 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th week of experiment and significantly improve feed conversion ratio during all weeks of the experiment from 1st week (2.85+0.07 vs. 3.30+0.15) till the 8th week of the experiment (5.51+0.12 vs. 5.77+0.12). Also the dressing percentage was higher in Sodium butyrate fed groups than control one (0.53+0.01 vs. 0.52+0.01) and the most important results of feeding sodium butyrate is the reducing of the mortality percentage in rabbits during 8 week experiment to zero percentage as compared with 16% in control group.

Keywords: rabbit, productive performance, carcass quality, sodium byturate

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Authors: Patchalaphon Seeladlao, Anocha Kimkong

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The aims of this study were to compare the differences of being good membership behavior among faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University with different sex, age, income, education, marital status, and working period, and investigate the relationships between organizational commitment and being good membership behavior. The research methodology employed a questionnaire as a quantitative method. The respondents were 305 faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This research used Percentage, Mean, Standard Deviation, t-test, One-Way ANOVA Analysis of Variance, and Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient in data analysis. The results showed that organizational commitment among faculties and staffs of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University was at a high level. In addition, differences in sex, age, income, education, marital status, and working period revealed differences in being good membership behavior. The results also indicated that organizational commitment was significantly related to being good membership behavior.

Keywords: Being Good membership behavior, Organizational Commitment.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Laila Salah Seada, Ashraf Ibrahim, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ihab Abdo, Hassan Kasim, Waleed Al Mansi, Saud Al Shabli

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Background and Objectives: Colorectal carcinoma is increasing among both men and women worldwide. It has a multifactorial etiology including genetic factors, environmental factors and inflammatory conditions of the digestive tract. A clinicopathologic assessment of colorectal carcinoma in Hail region is done, considering any changing patterns in two 5-year periods from 2005-2009 (A) and from 2012 to 2017 (B). All data had been retrieved from histopathology files of King Khalid Hospital, Hail. Results: During period (A), 75 cases were diagnosed as colorectal carcinoma. Male patients comprised 56/75 (74.7%) of the study, with a mean age of 58.4 (36-97), while females were 19/75 (25.3%) with a mean age of 50.3(30-85) and the difference was significant (p = 0.05). M:F ratio was 2.9:1. Most common histological type was adenocarcioma in 68/75 (90.7%) patients mostly well differentiated in 44/68 (64.7%). Mucinous neoplasms comprised only 7/75 (9.3%) of cases and tended to have a higher stage (p = 0.04). During period (B), 115 cases were diagnosed with an increase of 53.3% in number of cases than period (A). Male to female ratio also decreased to 1.35:1, females being 44.83% more affected. Adenocarcinoma remained the prevalent type (93.9%), while mucinous type was still rare (5.2%). No distal metastases found at time of presentation. Localization of tumors was rectosigmoid in group (A) in 41.4%, which increased to 56.6% in group (B), with an increase of 15.2%. Iliocecal location also decreased from 8% to 3.5%, being 56.25% less. Other proximal areas of the colon were decreased by 25.75%, from 53.9% in group (A) to 40% in group (B). Conclusion: Colorectal carcinoma in Hail region has increased by 53.3% in the past 5 years, with more females being diagnosed. Localization has also shifted distally by 15.2%. These findings are different from Western world patterns which experienced a decrease in incidence and proximal shift of the colon cancer localization. This might be due to better diagnostic tools, population awareness of the disease, as well as changing of life style and/or food habits in the region.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, Hail Region, changing pattern, distal shift.

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Authors: Mohammed B. Abohedma, Milad M. Alshebani

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Recent trends in building constructions in Libya are more toward tall (high-rise) building projects. As a consequence, a better estimation of the lateral loading in the design process is becoming the focal of a safe and cost effective building industry. Byin- large, Libya is not considered a potential earthquake prone zone, making wind is the dominant design lateral loads. Current design practice in the country estimates wind speeds on a mere random bases by considering certain factor of safety to the chosen wind speed. Therefore, a need for a more accurate estimation of wind speeds in Libya was the motivation behind this study. Records of wind speed data were collected from 22 metrological stations in Libya, and were statistically analysed. The analysis of more than four decades of wind speed records suggests that the country can be divided into four zones of distinct wind speeds. A computer “survey" program was manipulated to draw design wind speeds contour map for the state of Libya. The paper presents the statistical analysis of Libya-s recorded wind speed data and proposes design wind speed values for a 50-year return period that covers the entire country.

Keywords: Ccontour map, return period, wind speed, and zone.

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Authors: Branislav V. Šojić, Ljiljana S. Petrović, Vladimir M. Tomović, Natalija R. Džinić, Anamarija I. Mandić, Snežana B. Škaljac, Marija R. Jokanović, Predrag M. Ikonić, Tatjana A. Tasić, Ivana J. Sedej

Abstract:

The influence of ripening conditions (traditional and industrial) on oxidative and sensory stability of dry fermented sausage (Petrovská klobása), during 7 months of storage, was investigated. During the storage period the content of free fatty acids was significantly higher (P<0.05), while the content of malondialdehyde was significantly lower in the sausage subjected to traditional conditions of drying. At the end of the storage period, content of hexanal in the sausage subjected to traditional conditions of ripening (1.67μg/g) was significantly lower (P<0.05) in comparison with this content in the sausage subjected to industrial conditions of ripening (4.94µg/g). Traditional conditions of ripening at lower temperatures have led to better sensory properties of odor and taste of traditional dry fermented sausage, Petrovská klobása after 2 and 7 months of storage.

Keywords: Lipid oxidation, Petrovská klobása, sensory stability, storage time.

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Authors: Slavka Zeković

Abstract:

A preliminary evaluation of the urban land system is presented in the article together with the instruments of land policy in Serbia. The main reason for the analysis is demand for definition of reform framework for urban land management in Serbia in the period of transition towards market-led system. It is concluded that due to the limitations of the current regulation it will be impossible in the future to apply market principles in the urban land policy (supply and demand of land, land capitalization, investment efficiency, et al.). Based on the estimation that the urban land system and land policy are key factors of competitiveness between regions and towns in Serbia, it is necessary to initiate changes in this field. There are indicated on an option of privatization of urban public land and possible establishment of leasehold land. A comparative analysis of the possibilities of the reform urban land system in Serbia has been carried out in relation to two approaches of market systems: (a) with dominant private ownership of urban land (neo/liberal approach) and (b) with dominant public ownership of urban land (system of leasehold)whose findings can be a basis for further study of the new system in Serbia.. The attanied results are part of studies matter for the making of Strategy of territorial development of Serbia.

Keywords: Urban Land System, Urban Land Management, Instruments of Land Policy, Evaluation, Market.

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Authors: P. Vijaya Laxmi, V. Goswami, V. Suchitra

Abstract:

This paper presents a finite buffer renewal input single working vacation and vacation interruption queue with state dependent services and state dependent vacations, which has a wide range of applications in several areas including manufacturing, wireless communication systems. Service times during busy period, vacation period and vacation times are exponentially distributed and are state dependent. As a result of the finite waiting space, state dependent services and state dependent vacation policies, the analysis of these queueing models needs special attention. We provide a recursive method using the supplementary variable technique to compute the stationary queue length distributions at pre-arrival and arbitrary epochs. An efficient computational algorithm of the model is presented which is fast and accurate and easy to implement. Various performance measures have been discussed. Finally, some special cases and numerical results have been depicted in the form of tables and graphs. 

Keywords: State Dependent Service, Vacation Interruption, Supplementary Variable, Single Working Vacation, Blocking Probability.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

Abstract:

Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: Syed Javed Arif, Mohd Ayyub Khan, Saleem Anwar Khan

Abstract:

In this paper, a simple method is presented for measurement of power frequency deviations. A phase locked loop (PLL) is used to multiply the signal under test by a factor of 100. The number of pulses in this pulse train signal is counted over a stable known period, using decade driving assemblies (DDAs) and flip-flops. These signals are combined using logic gates and then passed through decade counters to give a unique combination of pulses or levels, which are further encoded. These pulses are equally suitable for both control applications and display units. The experimental circuit developed gives a resolution of 1 Hz within the measurement period of 20 ms. The proposed circuit is also simulated in Verilog Hardware Description Language (VHDL) and implemented using Field Programing Gate Arrays (FPGAs). A Mixed signal Oscilloscope (MSO) is used to observe the results of FPGA implementation. These results are compared with the results of the proposed circuit of discrete components. The proposed system is useful for frequency deviation measurement and control in power systems.

Keywords: Frequency measurement, digital control, phase locked loop, encoding, Verilog HDL.

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Authors: Hilmi Yazici

Abstract:

The more homogenized population taken over by the Republic immediately after the Ottoman was being canalized towards the goal of national identity and the historical and cultural structure of the nation was being readdressed and redefined. Modernization and Westernization history of the new Turkey, which started with Ottoman reforms and took its final form with the Kemalist nation-state, politically resulted in transformation from a multinational empire to a “nation-state” and adopted reaching to the level of Western civilizations as a sociology ideal. This objective of change will be achieved, on the one hand, by finding the Turkish culture which was preserved only by the society and by instilling Western civilization to national culture, on the other hand.  In line with this, it is seen that in musical considerations while Turkish folk music was accepted and adopted as an indispensible part of Turkish identity, Turkish classical music was refused on the ground that it was not a part of Turkish identity. Again in this period, it is seen that with the notion of cultural reform, which is a part of “nation building”, the desire to create a national music to be performed with Western techniques brought along deliberate interventions to folk music.

Keywords: Folk song, Nationalism, National music, nation-state, Turkish music.

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