Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 327

Search results for: electricity

327 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Electricity Markets: Evaluation via Sharpe Ratio

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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326 Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX

Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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325 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Turkish Electricity Market via Value at Risk

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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324 Hourly Electricity Load Forecasting: An Empirical Application to the Italian Railways

Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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323 Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico

Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

The causality between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore, any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all on economic growth in México.

Keywords: Causality, economic growth, electricity consumption, Mexico.

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322 Solar Energy Potential and Applications in Myanmar

Authors: Thet Thet Han Yee, Su Su Win, Nyein Nyein Soe

Abstract:

Energy consumption is one of the indices in determining the levels of development of a nation. Therefore, availability of energy supply to all sectors of life in any country is crucial for its development. These exists shortage of all kinds of energy, particularly electricity which is badly needed for economic development. Electricity from the sun which is quite abundant in most of the developing countries is used in rural areas to meet basic electricity needs of a rural community. Today-s electricity supply in Myanmar is generated by fuel generators and hydroelectric power plants. However, far-flung areas which are away from National Grids cannot enjoy the electricity generated by these sources. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the first form of energy- solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem. The direct conversion of solar energy into electricity using photovoltaic system has been receiving intensive installation not only in developed countries but also in developing countries. It is mainly intended to present solar energy potential and application in Myanmar. It is also wanted to get the benefits of using solar energy for people in remote areas which are not yet connected to the national grids because of the high price of fossil fuel.

Keywords: Electricity supply in Myanmar, National Grids, solarenergy.

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321 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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320 Electricity Consumption Prediction Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System

Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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319 Optimal Design of the Power Generation Network in California: Moving towards 100% Renewable Electricity by 2045

Authors: Wennan Long, Yuhao Nie, Yunan Li, Adam Brandt

Abstract:

To fight against climate change, California government issued the Senate Bill No. 100 (SB-100) in 2018 September, which aims at achieving a target of 100% renewable electricity by the end of 2045. A capacity expansion problem is solved in this case study using a binary quadratic programming model. The optimal locations and capacities of the potential renewable power plants (i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and hydropower), the phase-out schedule of existing fossil-based (nature gas) power plants and the transmission of electricity across the entire network are determined with the minimal total annualized cost measured by net present value (NPV). The results show that the renewable electricity contribution could increase to 85.9% by 2030 and reach 100% by 2035. Fossil-based power plants will be totally phased out around 2035 and solar and wind will finally become the most dominant renewable energy resource in California electricity mix.

Keywords: 100% renewable electricity, California, capacity expansion, binary quadratic programming.

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318 Electricity Load Modeling: An Application to Italian Market

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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317 Review of Various Designs and Development in Hydropower Turbines

Authors: F. Behrouzi, A. Maimun, M. Nakisa

Abstract:

The growth of population, rising fossil fuel prices (limited and decreasing day by day), pollution problem due to use of fossil fuels and increasing electrical demand are important factors that encourage the use of green and renewable energy technologies. Among the different renewable energy technologies, hydro power generation (large and small scale) is the prime choice in terms of contribution to the world's electricity generation by using water current turbines. Currently, researchers mainly focused on design and development of different kind of turbines to capture hydropower to generate electricity as clean and reliable energy. This paper is a review of the status of research on water current turbines carried out to generate electricity from hydrokinetic energy especially in places where there is no electricity, but there is access to flowing water.

Keywords: Turbines, Renewable Energy, Hydropower.

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316 Study of the Effectiveness of Solar Heat Gain and Day Light Factors on Minimizing Electricity Use in High Rise Buildings

Authors: Mansour Nikpour, Mohd Zin kandar, Mohsen Ghasemi, Hossein Fallah

Abstract:

Over half of the total electricity consumption is used in buildings. Air-conditioning and electric lighting are the two main resources of electricity consumption in high rise buildings. One way to reduce electricity consumption would be to limit heat gain into buildings, therefore reduce the demand for air-conditioning during hot summer months especially in hot regions. On the other hand natural daylight can be used to reduce the use of electricity for artificial lighting. In this paper effective factors on minimizing heat gain and achieving required day light were reviewed .As daylight always accompanied by solar heat gain. Also interactions between heat gain and daylight were discussed through previous studies and equations which are related to heat gain and day lighting especially in high rise buildings. As a result importance of building-s form and its component on energy consumption in buildings were clarified.

Keywords: High rise buildings, energy demand, day lighting, heat gain.

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315 Day Type Identification for Algerian Electricity Load using Kohonen Maps

Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

Abstract:

Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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314 Global Electricity Consumption Estimation Using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Authors: E.Assareh, M.A. Behrang, R. Assareh, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Fossil Fuels, Electricity, Forecasting.

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313 Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis with Shallow-ANN and DNN

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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312 Electricity Power Planning: the Role of Wind Energy

Authors: Paula Ferreira, Madalena Araújo, M.E.J. O’Kelly

Abstract:

Combining energy efficiency with renewable energy sources constitutes a key strategy for a sustainable future. The wind power sector stands out as a fundamental element for the achievement of the European renewable objectives and Portugal is no exception to the increase of the wind energy for the electricity generation. This work proposes an optimization model for the long range electricity power planning in a system similar to the Portuguese one, where the expected impacts of the increasing installed wind power on the operating performance of thermal power plants are taken into account. The main results indicate that the increasing penetration of wind power in the electricity system will have significant effects on the combined cycle gas power plants operation and on the theoretically expected cost reduction and environmental gains. This research demonstrated the need to address the impact that energy sources with variable output may have, not only on the short-term operational planning, but especially on the medium to long range planning activities, in order to meet the strategic objectives for the energy sector.

Keywords: Wind power, electricity planning model, cost, emissions.

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311 Influence of Distributed Generation on Congestion and LMP in Competitive Electricity Market

Authors: Durga Gautam, Mithulananthan Nadarajah

Abstract:

This paper presents the influence of distributed generation (DG) on congestion and locational marginal price (LMP) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement to manage congestion and reduce LMP is formulated for the objective of social welfare maximization. From competitive electricity market standpoint, DGs have great value when they reduce load in particular locations and at particular times when feeders are heavily loaded. The paper lies on the groundwork that solution to optimal mix of generation and transmission resources can be achieved by addressing congestion and corresponding LMP. Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Specific grid locations are examined to study the influence of DG penetration on congestion and corresponding shadow prices. The influence of DG on congestion and locational marginal prices has been demonstrated in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system.

Keywords: Congestion management, distributed generation, electricity market, locational marginal price, optimal power flow, social welfare.

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310 Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach

Authors: L. L. Ivy-Yap, H. A. Bekhet

Abstract:

As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationarity of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modelled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.

Keywords: Co-integration, Elasticity, Granger causality, Malaysia, Residential electricity consumption.

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309 The Relationship between the Environmental and Financial Performance of Australian Electricity Producers

Authors: S. Forughi, A. De Zoysa, S. Bhati

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the environmental performance of the companies in the electricity-producing sector and its relationship with their financial performance. We will review the major studies that examined the relationship between the environmental and financial performance of firms in various industries. While the classical economic debates consider the environmental friendly activities costly and harmful to a firm’s profitability, it is claimed that firms will be rewarded with higher profitability in long run through the investments in environmental friendly activities. In this context, prior studies have examined the relationship between the environmental and financial performance of firms operating in different industry sectors. Our study will employ an environmental indicator to increase the accuracy of the results and be employed as an independent variable in our developed econometric model to evaluate the impact of the financial performance of the firms on their environmental friendly activities in the context of companies operating in the Australian electricity-producing sector. As a result, we expect our methodology to contribute to the literature and the findings of the study will help us to provide recommendations and policy implications to the electricity producers.

Keywords: Australian electricity sector, efficiency measurement, environmental-financial performance interaction, environmental index.

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308 Hydrogen Production at the Forecourt from Off-Peak Electricity and Its Role in Balancing the Grid

Authors: Abdulla Rahil, Rupert Gammon, Neil Brown

Abstract:

The rapid growth of renewable energy sources and their integration into the grid have been motivated by the depletion of fossil fuels and environmental issues. Unfortunately, the grid is unable to cope with the predicted growth of renewable energy which would lead to its instability. To solve this problem, energy storage devices could be used. Electrolytic hydrogen production from an electrolyser is considered a promising option since it is a clean energy source (zero emissions). Choosing flexible operation of an electrolyser (producing hydrogen during the off-peak electricity period and stopping at other times) could bring about many benefits like reducing the cost of hydrogen and helping to balance the electric systems. This paper investigates the price of hydrogen during flexible operation compared with continuous operation, while serving the customer (hydrogen filling station) without interruption. The optimization algorithm is applied to investigate the hydrogen station in both cases (flexible and continuous operation). Three different scenarios are tested to see whether the off-peak electricity price could enhance the reduction of the hydrogen cost. These scenarios are: Standard tariff (1 tier system) during the day (assumed 12 p/kWh) while still satisfying the demand for hydrogen; using off-peak electricity at a lower price (assumed 5 p/kWh) and shutting down the electrolyser at other times; using lower price electricity at off-peak times and high price electricity at other times. This study looks at Derna city, which is located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (32° 46′ 0 N, 22° 38′ 0 E) with a high potential for wind resource. Hourly wind speed data which were collected over 24½ years from 1990 to 2014 were in addition to data on hourly radiation and hourly electricity demand collected over a one-year period, together with the petrol station data.

Keywords: Hydrogen filling station off-peak electricity, renewable energy, off-peak electricity, electrolytic hydrogen.

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307 Using Exponential Lévy Models to Study Implied Volatility patterns for Electricity Options

Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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306 Electrolysis Ship for Green Hydrogen Production and Possible Applications

Authors: Julian David Hunt, Andreas Nascimento

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is the most environmental, renewable alternative to produce hydrogen. However, an important challenge to make hydrogen a competitive energy carrier is a constant supply of renewable energy, such as solar, wind and hydropower. Given that the electricity generation potential of these sources vary seasonally and interannually, this paper proposes installing an electrolysis hydrogen production plant in a ship and move the ship to the locations where electricity is cheap, or where the seasonal potential for renewable generation is high. An example of electrolysis ship application is to produce green hydrogen with hydropower from the North region of Brazil and then sail to the Northeast region of Brazil and generate hydrogen using excess electricity from offshore wind power. The electrolysis ship concept is interesting because it has the flexibility to produce green hydrogen using the cheapest renewable electricity available in the market.

Keywords: Green hydrogen, electrolysis ship, renewable energies, seasonal variations.

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305 Implementation of Neural Network Based Electricity Load Forecasting

Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

Abstract:

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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304 Feasibility Study of Air Conditioners Operated by Solar Energy in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Eman Simbawa, Budur Alasmri, Hanan Munahir, Hanin Munahir

Abstract:

Solar energy has become currently the subject of attention around the world and is undergoing many researches and studies. Using solar energy, which is a renewable energy, is aligned with the Saudi Vision 2030. People are more aware of it and are starting to use it more for environmental and economical reasons. A questionnaire was conducted in this paper to measure the awareness of people in Saudi Arabia regarding solar energy and their attitude towards it. Then, two kinds of air conditioners (one powered by electricity only and one powered by solar panels and electricity) are compared in terms of their cost over a period of 20 years. This will help the users to decide which kind of device to use depending on its cost. The result shows that as the electricity tariffs in Saudi Arabia increases, depending on the sector, the solar air conditioner is cheaper. In fact, if the tariff in the future increases to reach 50 Halalah/kWh, the solar air conditioner is more economical. This will influence users to buy more solar powered devices, and it will decrease the consumption of electricity. Therefore, the dependence on oil will decrease.

Keywords: Air conditioner, solar energy, photovoltaic cells, present value.

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303 Role of Non-Renewable and Renewable Energy for Sustainable Electricity Generation in Malaysia

Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Nor Hamisham Harun

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to give a comprehensive review of non-renewable energy and renewable energy utilization in Malaysia, including hydropower, solar photovoltaic, biomass and biogas technologies. Malaysia mainly depends on non-renewable energy (natural gas, coal and crude oil) for electricity generation. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the energy sector and discusses diversification of electricity generation as a strategy for providing sustainable energy in Malaysia. Energy policies and strategies to protect the non-renewable energy utilization also are highlighted, focusing in the different sources of energy available for high and sustained economic growth. Emphasis is also placed on a discussion of the role of renewable energy as an alternative source for the increase of electricity supply security. It is now evident that to achieve sustainable development through renewable energy, energy policies and strategies have to be well designed and supported by the government, industries (firms), and individual or community participation. The hope is to create a positive impact on sustainable development through renewable sources for current and future generations.

Keywords: Malaysia, non-renewable energy, renewable energy, sustainable energy.

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302 Impact Analysis of Transportation Modal Shift on Regional Energy Consumption and Environmental Level: Focused on Electric Automobiles

Authors: Hong Bae Kim, Chang Ho Hur

Abstract:

Many governments have tried to reduce CO2 emissions which are believed to be the main cause for global warming. The deployment of electric automobiles is regarded as an effective way to reduce CO2 emissions. The Korean government has planned to deploy about 200,000 electric automobiles. The policy for the deployment of electric automobiles aims at not only decreasing gasoline consumption but also increasing electricity production. However, if an electricity consuming regions is not consistent with an electricity producing region, the policy generates environmental problems between regions. Hence, this paper has established the energy multi-region input-output model to specifically analyze the impacts of the deployment of electric automobiles on regional energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Finally, the paper suggests policy directions regarding the deployment of electric automobiles.

Keywords: Electric automobiles, CO2 emissions, regional imbalances in electricity production and consumption, energy multi-region input-output model.

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301 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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300 Optimal Choice and Location of Multi Type Facts Devices in Deregulated Electricity Market Using Evolutionary Programming Method

Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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299 Studies on the Feasibility of Cow Dung as a Non-Conventional Energy Source

Authors: Raj Kumar Rajak, Bharat Mishra

Abstract:

Bio-batteries represent an entirely new long-term, reasonable, reachable and ecofriendly approach to produce sustainable energy. In the present experimental work, we have studied the effect of generation of power by bio-battery using different electrode pairs. The tests show that it is possible to generate electricity using cow dung as an electrolyte. C-Mg electrode pair shows maximum voltage and SCC (Short Circuit Current) while C-Zn electrode pair shows less OCV (Open Circuit Voltage) and SCC. We have chosen C-Zn electrodes because Mg electrodes are not economical. By the studies of different electrodes and cow dung, it is found that C-Zn electrode battery is more suitable. This result shows that the bio-batteries have the potency to full fill the need of electricity demand for lower energy equipment.

Keywords: Bio-batteries, electricity, cow dung, electrodes, non-conventional.

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298 Design of AC Electronics Load Surge Protection

Authors: N. Mungkung, S. Wongcharoen, C. Sukkongwari, Somchai Arunrungrasmi

Abstract:

This study examines the design and construction of AC Electronics load surge protection in order to carry electric surge load arisen from faults in low voltage electricity system (single phase/220V) by using the principle of electronics load clamping voltage during induction period so that electric voltage could go through to safe load and continue to work. The qualification of the designed device could prevent both transient over voltage and voltage swell. Both will work in cooperation, resulting in the ability to improve and modify the quality of electrical power in Thailand electricity distribution system more effective than the past and help increase the lifetime of electric appliances, electric devices, and electricity protection equipments.

Keywords: Electronics Load, Transient Over Voltage, Voltage Swell.

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