Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 32771
Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak

Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

Abstract:

Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1071077

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2291

References:


[1] O. Aburas, H. M. Aburas Index: A statistically developed index for dengue transmitting vector population prediction. Proceedings of World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 23, 151- 154(2007).
[2] Gubler, D.J. "How Effectivelly is Epidemiological Surveillance used for Dengue Programme Planning and Epidemic Response?." Dengue Bulletin, Volume 26 (2002).
[3] Gubler, D.J. "Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever." Clin Microbiol Rev, 113: 480-496 (1998).
[4] McConnell K.J. Gubler, D.J. (2003). "Guidelines of the Cost- Effectiveness of Larval Control Programs to Reduce Dengue Transmission in Puerto Rico." Rev Panam Salud Publica. 14:1(2003).
[5] WHO (World Health Organisation). Key issues in dengue vector control towards the operationlization of global strategy report of consultation. Geneva: WHO-CDC/FIL 2010.2.(2010)