Search results for: Market evaluation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3128

Search results for: Market evaluation

1688 Need of National Space Legislation for Space Faring Nations

Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Yang Caixia

Abstract:

The need for national space legislation is pivotal, particularly in light of the fact that in recent years space activities have grown immensely both in volume and diversity. Countries are progressively developing capabilities in space exploration and scientific discoveries, market their capabilities to manufacture satellites, provide launch services from their facilities and are looking to privatize and commercialize their space resources. Today, nations are also seeking to comprehend the technological and financial potential of the private sector and are considering to share their financial burdens with them and to limit their exposures to risks, but they are lagging behind in legal framework in this regard. In the perspective of these emerging developments, it is therefore, felt that national space legislation should be enacted with the goal of building and implementing a vibrant and transparent legal framework at the national level to hasten investments and to ensure growth in this capital intensive - highly yield strategic sector. This study looks at (I) the international legal framework that governs space activities; (II) motivation behind making national space laws; and (III) the need for national space legislation. The paper concludes with some recommendations with regards to the conceivable future direction for national space legislation, in particular space empowered sub-areas for countries.

Keywords: International conventions, national legislation, space faring nation, space law.

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1687 Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets

Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

Abstract:

Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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1686 A Comparison of Recent Methods for Solving a Model 1D Convection Diffusion Equation

Authors: Ashvin Gopaul, Jayrani Cheeneebash, Kamleshsing Baurhoo

Abstract:

In this paper we study some numerical methods to solve a model one-dimensional convection–diffusion equation. The semi-discretisation of the space variable results into a system of ordinary differential equations and the solution of the latter involves the evaluation of a matrix exponent. Since the calculation of this term is computationally expensive, we study some methods based on Krylov subspace and on Restrictive Taylor series approximation respectively. We also consider the Chebyshev Pseudospectral collocation method to do the spatial discretisation and we present the numerical solution obtained by these methods.

Keywords: Chebyshev Pseudospectral collocation method, convection-diffusion equation, restrictive Taylor approximation.

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1685 Anomaly Detection and Characterization to Classify Traffic Anomalies Case Study: TOT Public Company Limited Network

Authors: O. Siriporn, S. Benjawan

Abstract:

This paper represents four unsupervised clustering algorithms namely sIB, RandomFlatClustering, FarthestFirst, and FilteredClusterer that previously works have not been used for network traffic classification. The methodology, the result, the products of the cluster and evaluation of these algorithms with efficiency of each algorithm from accuracy are shown. Otherwise, the efficiency of these algorithms considering form the time that it use to generate the cluster quickly and correctly. Our work study and test the best algorithm by using classify traffic anomaly in network traffic with different attribute that have not been used before. We analyses the algorithm that have the best efficiency or the best learning and compare it to the previously used (K-Means). Our research will be use to develop anomaly detection system to more efficiency and more require in the future.

Keywords: Unsupervised, clustering, anomaly, machine learning.

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1684 Entrepreneurial Challenges Confronting Micro Enterprise of Malaysian Malays

Authors: Abu Bakar Sedek Abdul Jamak, Rohani Salleh, Subarna Sivapalan, Azrai Abdullah

Abstract:

This research focuses on micro-enterprise of Malaysian Malays that are involved in very small-scaled business activities. Among them include food stall and burger stall operators, night market hawkers, grocery store operators as well as construction and small service activities works. The study seeks to explore why some micro-entrepreneurs still lag in entrepreneurship and what needs to be rectified. This quantitative study is conducted on 173 Malay micro-enterprise owners (MEOs) and 58 Malay failed microenterprise owners (FMEOs) involved in all range of businesses throughout the state of Perak, Malaysia. The main aims are to identify the gaps between the failed micro-enterprise owners (FMEOs) and existing micro-enterprise owners (MEOs) and the problems faced among FMEOs. The results reveal that the MEOs had strong motivations and better marketing approaches as compared to FMEOs. Furthermore, the FMEOs failed in the business ventures mainly due to lack of management, sales and marketing skills and poor competitive abilities to keep up with rivals.

Keywords: Micro-enterprises, Malays, entrepreneurship, Malaysia

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1683 The Impact of Semantic Web on E-Commerce

Authors: Karim Heidari

Abstract:

Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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1682 Cement Mortar Lining as a Potential Source of Water Contamination

Authors: M. Zielina, W. Dabrowski, E. Radziszewska-Zielina

Abstract:

Several different cements have been tested to evaluate their potential to leach calcium, chromium and aluminum ions in soft water environment. The research allows comparing some different cements in order to the potential risk of water contamination. This can be done only in the same environment. To reach the results in reasonable short time intervals and to make heavy metals measurements with high accuracy, demineralized water was used. In this case the conditions of experiments are far away from the water supply practice, but short time experiments and measurably high concentrations of elements in the water solution are an important advantage. Moreover leaching mechanisms can be recognized, our experiments reported here refer to this kind of cements evaluation.

Keywords: Concrete corrosion, hydrogen sulfide, odors, reinforced concrete sewers, sewerage.

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1681 Experimental Analysis on Electrical and Photometric Performances of Commercially Available Integrated Compact Fluorescent Lamp

Authors: Hu-Hsiao Hsu, Po-Ren Chung, Ming-Chin Ho, Chieh-Feng Tsai, Che-Ming Chiang, Shin-Ku Lee

Abstract:

Lighting upgrades involve relatively lower costs which allow the benefits to be spread more widely than is possible with any other energy efficiency measure. In order to popularize the adoption of CFL in Taiwan, the authority proposes to implement a new energy efficient lamp comparative label system. The current study was accordingly undertaken to investigate the factors affecting the performance and the deviation of actual and labeled performance of commercially available integrated CFLs. In this paper, standard test methods to determine the electrical and photometric performances of CFL were developed based on CIE 84-1989 and CIE 60901-1987, then 55 selected CFLs from market were tested. The results show that with higher color temperature of CFLs lower efficacy are achieved. It was noticed that the most packaging of CFL often lack the information of Color Rendering Index. Also, there was no correlation between price and performance of the CFLs was indicated in this work. The results of this paper might help consumers to make more informed CFL-purchasing decisions.

Keywords: Compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), Efficacy, Color Rendering Index (CRI), Energy saving.

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1680 Integrating Blogging into Peer Assessment on College Students’ English Writing

Authors: Su-Lien Liao

Abstract:

Most of college students in Taiwan do not have sufficient English proficiency to express themselves in written English. Teachers spent a lot of time correcting the errors in students’ English writing, but the results are not satisfactory. This study aims to use blogs as a teaching and learning tool in written English. Before applying peer assessment, students should be trained to be good reviewers.  The teacher starts the course by posting the error analysis of students’ first English composition on blogs as the comment models for students. Then the students will go through the process of drafting, composing, peer response and last revision on blogs. Evaluation questionnaires and interviews will be conducted at the end of the course to see the impact and also students’ perception for the course.

Keywords: Blog, Peer assessment, English writing, Error analysis.

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1679 Effects of Human Factors on Workforce Scheduling

Authors: M. Othman, N. Bhuiyan, G. J. Gouw

Abstract:

In today-s competitive market, most companies develop manufacturing systems that can help in cost reduction and maximum quality. Human issues are an important part of manufacturing systems, yet most companies ignore their effects on production performance. This paper aims to developing an integrated workforce planning system that incorporates the human being. Therefore, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training, overtime for each worker type. This paper considers a workforce planning model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers- personalities, capacity, motivation, and learning rates. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, and maximize the workers- performance. The results indicate that the workers- differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human learning rates on the performance of the production systems.

Keywords: Human Factors, Learning Curves, Workers' Differences, Workforce Scheduling

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1678 Optimization of Artificial Ageing Time and Temperature on Evaluation of Hardness and Resistivity of Al-Si-Mg (Cu or/& Ni) Alloys

Authors: A. Hossain, A. S. W. Kurny

Abstract:

The factors necessary to obtain an optimal heat treatment that influence the hardness and resistivity of Al-6Si-0.5Mg casting alloys with Cu or/and Ni additions were investigated. The alloys were homogenised (24hr at 500oC), solutionized (2hr at 540oC) and artificially ageing at various times and temperatures. The alloys were aged isochronally for 60 minutes at temperatures up to 400oC and isothermally at 150, 175, 200, 225, 250 & 300oC for different periods in the range 15 to 360 minutes. The hardness and electrical resistivity of the alloys were measured for various artificial ageing times and temperatures. From the isochronal ageing treatment, hardness found maximum ageing at 225oC. And from the isothermal ageing treatment, hardness found maximum for 60 minutes at 225oC. So the optimal heat treatment consists of 60 minutes ageing at 225oC.

Keywords: Ageing, Al-Si-Mg alloy, hardness, resistivity.

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1677 Evaluation of the Displacement-Based and the Force-Based Adaptive Pushover Methods in Seismic Response Estimation of Irregular Buildings Considering Torsional Effects

Authors: R. Abbasnia, F. Mohajeri Nav, S. Zahedifar, A. Tajik

Abstract:

Recent years, adaptive pushover methods have been developed for seismic analysis of structures. Herein, the accuracy of the displacement-based adaptive pushover (DAP) method, which is introduced by Antoniou and Pinho [2004], is evaluated for Irregular buildings. The results are compared to the force-based procedure. Both concrete and steel frame structures, asymmetric in plan and elevation are analyzed and also torsional effects are taking into the account. These analyses are performed using both near fault and far fault records. In order to verify the results, the Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) is performed.

Keywords: Pushover Analysis, DAP, IDA, Torsion.

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1676 Structural Study of Boron - Nitride Nanotube with Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Parameters Calculation via Density Functional Theory Method (DFT)

Authors: Asadollah Boshra, Ahmad Seif, Mehran Aghaei

Abstract:

A model of (4, 4) single-walled boron-nitride nanotube as a representative of armchair boron-nitride nanotubes studied. At first the structure optimization performed and then Nuclear Magnetic Resonance parameters (NMR) by Density Functional Theory (DFT) method at 11B and 15N nuclei calculated. Resulted parameters evaluation presents electrostatic environment heterogeneity along the nanotube and especially at the ends but the nuclei in a layer feel the same electrostatic environment. All of calculations carried out using Gaussian 98 Software package.

Keywords: Boron-nitride nanotube, Density Functional Theory, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR).

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1675 Sentiment Analysis: Popularity of Candidates for the President of the United States

Authors: Radek Malinský, Ivan Jelínek

Abstract:

This article deals with the popularity of candidates for the president of the United States of America. The popularity is assessed according to public comments on the Web 2.0. Social networking, blogging and online forums (collectively Web 2.0) are for common Internet users the easiest way to share their personal opinions, thoughts, and ideas with the entire world. However, the web content diversity, variety of technologies and website structure differences, all of these make the Web 2.0 a network of heterogeneous data, where things are difficult to find for common users. The introductory part of the article describes methodology for gathering and processing data from Web 2.0. The next part of the article is focused on the evaluation and content analysis of obtained information, which write about presidential candidates.

Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, Web 2.0, Webometrics.

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1674 From “Boat to Plate”: Creating Value through Sustainable Fish Supply Chain Visibility

Authors: Isabel Duarte de Almeida, João Vilas-Boas, Luís Miguel Ferreira

Abstract:

Environmental concerns about the scarcity of marine resources are critical driving forces for firms aiming to prepare their supply chains for sustainability. Building on previous work, this paper highlights the implementation of good practices geared towards sustainable operations in the seafood department, which were pursued in an exploratory retailer case. Outcomes of the adopted environmentally and socially acceptable fish retailing strategies, ranged from traceability, to self-certification and eco-labelling. The consequences for business were, as follows: stronger collaboration and trust across the chain of custody, improvement of sponsors’ image and of consumers’ loyalty and, progress in the Greenpeace retailers’ evaluation ranking.

Keywords: Sustainability in sea food, Supply Chain Traceability, Social Responsibility.

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1673 The Relationship between Human Values and Service Quality with the Mediating Role of Motivation: A Quantitative Study on Malaysian Commercial Banks

Authors: Kuppusamy Singaravelloo, Zahra Kamiab

Abstract:

This study explores the mediating effects of motivation in the relationship between human values and service quality. To examine the fundamental relationships among human values, motivation, and service quality, a Structural Equation Model (SEM) with a full mediation model was adopted. The model was designed and subsequently analyzed by utilizing the Partial Least Squares (PLS) procedure on data collected from a survey that yielded 936 usable questionnaires. The survey was sent to all 117 branches of two local commercial banks (CIMB and Maybank) operating in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Both banks ranked the highest in terms of asset size and market capitalization. The mediating role of motivation was examined in the relationship between four dimensions of human values and bank service quality, whereby human values initiate service quality. The results support the notion that employee motivation fully mediates the relationship between self-enhancement values and service quality in commercial banks. These results demonstrate the unpredictable role of the interaction structures of human values on bank service quality.

Keywords: Human values, service quality, mediation, motivation, commercial bank.

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1672 Routing Load Analysis over 802.11 DCF of Reactive Routing Protocols DSR and DYMO

Authors: Parma Nand, S.C. Sharma

Abstract:

The Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) is a collection of self-configuring and rapidly deployed mobile nodes (routers) without any central infrastructure. Routing is one of the potential issues. Many routing protocols are reported but it is difficult to decide which one is best in all scenarios. In this paper on demand routing protocols DSR and DYMO based on IEEE 802.11 DCF MAC protocol are examined and characteristic summary of these routing protocols is presented. Their performance is analyzed and compared on performance measuring metrics throughput, dropped packets due to non availability of routes, duplicate RREQ generated for route discovery and normalized routing load by varying CBR data traffic load using QualNet 5.0.2 network simulator.

Keywords: Adhoc networks, wireless networks, CBR, routingprotocols, route discovery, simulation, performance evaluation, MAC, IEEE 802.11.

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1671 Maintenance Alternatives Related to Costs of Wind Turbines Using Finite State Markov Model

Authors: Boukelkoul Lahcen

Abstract:

The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the cost according to various options of maintenance.

Keywords: Cost, finite state, Markov model, operation, maintenance.

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1670 Critical Success Factors of Information Technology Projects

Authors: Md. Athar Imtiaz, Abduljalil S. Al-Mudhary, Md. Taha Mirhashemi, Roslina Ibrahim

Abstract:

Information Technology (IT) is being used by almost all organizations throughout the world. However its success at supporting and improving business is debatable. There is always the risk of IT project failure and studies have proven that a large number of IT projects indeed do fail. There are many components that further the success of IT projects; these have been studied in previous studies. Studies have found the most necessary components for success in software development projects, executive information systems etc. In this study previous literatures that have looked into these success promoting factors have been critically reviewed and analyzed. 15 Critical Success Factors (CSF) of IT projects were enlisted and examined. These factors can be applied to all IT projects and is not specific to a particular type of IT/IS project. A hypothesis was also generated after the evaluation of the factors.

Keywords: Critical Success Factors, CSF, IT Projects, IS Projects, Software Development Projects.

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1669 Equilibrium Modeling of Cu and Ni Removal from Aqueous Solutions: Influence of Salinity

Authors: Tomáš Bakalár, Milan Búgel, Henrieta Pavolová

Abstract:

This study deals with evaluation of influence of salinity (NaCl) onto equilibrium of Cu and Ni removal from aqueous solutions by natural sorbent – zeolite. Equilibrium data were obtained by batch experiments. The salinity of the aqueous solution was influenced by dissolving NaCl in distilled water. It was studied in the range of NaCl concentrations from 1 g.l-1 to 100g.l-1. For Cu sorption there is a significant influence of salinity. The maximum capacity of zeolite for Cu was decreasing with growing concentration of NaCl. For Ni sorption there is not so significant influence of salinity as for Cu. The maximum capacity of zeolite for Ni was slightly decreasing with growing concentration of NaCl.

Keywords: Cu, Ni, sorption, zeolite.

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1668 Gas Pressure Evaluation through Radial Velocity Measurement of Fluid Flow Modeled by Drift Flux Model

Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a drift flux mixture model of the blood flow. The mixture consists of gas phase which is carbon dioxide and liquid phase which is an aqueous carbon dioxide solution. This model was used to determine the distributions of the mixture velocity, the mixture pressure, and the carbon dioxide pressure. These theoretical data are used to determine a measurement method of mean gas pressure through the determination of radial velocity distribution. This method can be applicable in experimental domain.

Keywords: Mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity.

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1667 Study on Applying Fuzzy AHP and GRA in Selection of Agent Construction Enterprise

Authors: Shirong Li, Huan Yan

Abstract:

To help the client to select a competent agent construction enterprise (ACE), this study aims to investigate the selection standards by using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and build an evaluation mathematical model with Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). According to the outputs of literature review, four orderly levels are established within the model, taking the consideration of various agent construction models in practice. Then, the process of applying FAHP and GRA is discussed in detailed. Finally, through a case study, this paper illustrates how to apply these methods in getting the weights of each standard and the final assessment result.

Keywords: agent construction enterprise, agent constructionmodel, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, grey relational analysis

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1666 Evaluation of Cognitive Benefits among Differently Abled Subjects with Video Game as Intervention

Authors: H. Nagendra, Vinod Kumar, S. Mukherjee

Abstract:

In this study, the potential benefits of playing action video game among congenitally deaf and dumb subjects is reported in terms of EEG ratio indices. The frontal and occipital lobes are associated with development of motor skills, cognition, and visual information processing and color recognition. The sixteen hours of First-Person shooter action video game play resulted in the increase of the ratios β/(α+θ) and β/θ in frontal and occipital lobes. This can be attributed to the enhancement of certain aspect of cognition among deaf and dumb subjects.

Keywords: Cognitive enhancement, video games, EEG band powers, Deaf and Dumb subjects.

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1665 A Simulation Model for Bid Price Decision Making

Authors: R. Sammoura

Abstract:

In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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1664 Evaluation of the Energy Consumption per Bit inBENES Optical Packet Switch

Authors: V. Eramo, E. Miucci, A. Cianfrani, A. Germoni, M. Listanti

Abstract:

We evaluate the average energy consumption per bit in Optical Packet Switches equipped with BENES switching fabric realized in Semiconductor Optical Amplifier (SOA) technology. We also study the impact that the Amplifier Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise generated by a transmission system has on the power consumption of the BENES switches due to the gain saturation of the SOAs used to realize the switching fabric. As a matter of example for 32×32 switches supporting 64 wavelengths and offered traffic equal to 0,8, the average energy consumption per bit is 2, 34 · 10-1 nJ/bit and increases if ASE noise introduced by the transmission systems is increased.

Keywords: Benes, Amplifier Spontaneous Emission Noise, EnergyConsumption, Optical Packet Switch.

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1663 Measurement of Rainwater Chemical Composition in Malaysia based on Ion Chromatography Method

Authors: S.H. Khoon, G.I. Issabayeva, L.W. Lee

Abstract:

Air quality in Setapak district of Kuala Lumpur was studied by analysing the rainwater chemical composition using ion chromatography method. Twelve sampling sites were selected and 120 rainwater samples were collected in the period of 10 weeks. The results of this study were compared to the earlier published data and the evaluation showed that the NO3 - ion concentration increased from 0.41 to 3.32 ppm, while SO4 2- ion concentration increased from 0.39 to 3.26 ppm over the past two decades that is mostly due to rapid urban development of the city. However, it was found that the chemical composition for both residential and industrial areas does not have significant difference. Most of the rainwater samples showed alkaline pH (pH > 5.6). The possible factors for such alkaline pH in rainwater samples are assumed to be the marine sources, biomass burning and alkaline character of soil particles.

Keywords: acid deposition; atmospheric pollution; deposition fluxes; trajectories

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1662 A Linear Use Case Based Software Cost Estimation Model

Authors: Hasan.O. Farahneh, Ayman A. Issa

Abstract:

Software development is moving towards agility with use cases and scenarios being used for requirements stories. Estimates of software costs are becoming even more important than before as effects of delays is much larger in successive short releases context of agile development. Thus, this paper reports on the development of new linear use case based software cost estimation model applicable in the very early stages of software development being based on simple metric. Evaluation showed that accuracy of estimates varies between 43% and 55% of actual effort of historical test projects. These results outperformed those of wellknown models when applied in the same context. Further work is being carried out to improve the performance of the proposed model when considering the effect of non-functional requirements.

Keywords: Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Use Cases

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1661 Diagnostics of Fatigue Damage of Gas Turbine Engine Blades by Acoustic Emission Method

Authors: A.Urbach, M. Banov, V. Turko, Y.Feshchuk

Abstract:

the work contains the results of complex investigation related to the evaluation of condition of working blades of gas turbine engines during fatigue tests by applying the acoustic emission method. It demonstrates the possibility of estimating the fatigue damage of blades in the process of factory tests. The acoustic emission criteria for detecting and testing the kinetics of fatigue crack distribution were detected. It also shows the high effectiveness of the method for non-destructive testing of condition of solid and cooled working blades for high-temperature gas turbine engines.

Keywords: acoustic emission, blades for gas turbine engines, fatigue damage, diagnostics

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1660 A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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1659 Cost Sensitive Feature Selection in Decision-Theoretic Rough Set Models for Customer Churn Prediction: The Case of Telecommunication Sector Customers

Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

Abstract:

In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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