Search results for: supply chain security

Authors: Hamidreza Bagheri, Alireza Shariati

Abstract:

There are many difficulties in the purification of raw components and products. However, researchers are seeking better ways for purification. One of the recent methods is extraction using supercritical fluids. In this study, the phase equilibria of benzoic acid -supercritical carbon dioxide system were investigated. Regarding the phase equilibria of this system, the modeling of solid-supercritical fluid behavior was performed using the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) and Peng-Robinson equations of state (PR EoS). For this purpose, five PC-SAFT EoS parameters for pure benzoic acid were obtained using its experimental vapor pressure. Benzoic acid has association sites and the behavior of the benzoic acid-supercritical fluid system was well predicted using both equations of state, while the binary interaction parameter values for PR EoS were negative. Genetic algorithm, which is one of the most accurate global optimization algorithms, was also used to optimize the pure benzoic acid parameters and the binary interaction parameters. The AAD% value for the PC-SAFT EoS, were 0.22 for the carbon dioxide-benzoic acid system.

Keywords: Supercritical fluids, Solubility, Solid, PC-SAFT EoS, Genetic algorithm.

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Authors: M. Kebisek, L. Spendla, M. Kopcek, T. Skulavik

Abstract:

In our paper we describe the security capabilities of data collection. Data are collected with probes located in the near and distant surroundings of the company. Considering the numerous obstacles e.g. forests, hills, urban areas, the data collection is realized in several ways. The collection of data uses connection via wireless communication, LAN network, GSM network and in certain areas data are collected by using vehicles. In order to ensure the connection to the server most of the probes have ability to communicate in several ways. Collected data are archived and subsequently used in supervisory applications. To ensure the collection of the required data, it is necessary to propose algorithms that will allow the probes to select suitable communication channel.

Keywords: Communication, computer network, data collection, probe.

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Authors: M. D. Stelescu, E. Manaila, G. Craciun, D. Ighigeanu

Abstract:

The goal of the paper is to present the results regarding the influence of the irradiation dose and amount of multifunctional monomer trimethylol-propane trimethacrylate (TMPT) on ethylene-propylene-diene terpolymer rubber (EPDM) mixtures irradiated in electron beam. Blends, molded on an electrically heated laboratory roller mill and compressed in an electrically heated hydraulic press, were irradiated using the ALID 7 of 5.5 MeV linear accelerator in the dose range of 22.6 kGy to 56.5 kGy in atmospheric conditions and at room temperature of 25 °C. The share of cross-linking and degradation reactions was evaluated by means of sol-gel analysis, cross-linking density measurements, FTIR studies and Charlesby-Pinner parameter (p₀/q₀) calculations. The blends containing different concentrations of TMPT (3 phr and 9 phr) and irradiated with doses in the mentioned range have present the increasing of gel content and cross-linking density. Modified and new bands in FTIR spectra have appeared, because of both cross-linking and chain scission reactions.

Keywords: Electron beam irradiation, EPDM rubber, crosslinking density, gel fraction.

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Authors: Julian David Hunt, Andreas Nascimento

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is the most environmental, renewable alternative to produce hydrogen. However, an important challenge to make hydrogen a competitive energy carrier is a constant supply of renewable energy, such as solar, wind and hydropower. Given that the electricity generation potential of these sources vary seasonally and interannually, this paper proposes installing an electrolysis hydrogen production plant in a ship and move the ship to the locations where electricity is cheap, or where the seasonal potential for renewable generation is high. An example of electrolysis ship application is to produce green hydrogen with hydropower from the North region of Brazil and then sail to the Northeast region of Brazil and generate hydrogen using excess electricity from offshore wind power. The electrolysis ship concept is interesting because it has the flexibility to produce green hydrogen using the cheapest renewable electricity available in the market.

Keywords: Green hydrogen, electrolysis ship, renewable energies, seasonal variations.

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Authors: Gábor Kovács

Abstract:

Requirement for pole-changing motors emerged at the very early times of asynchronous motor design. Different solutions have been elaborated and some of them are generally used. An alternative is the so called 3 Y/3 Y pole-changing winding. This paper deals with high power application of this solution. A complete and comprehensive study is introduced, including features and design guidelines. The method presented in this paper is especially suitable for pole numbers being close to each other. The study also reveals that the method is more advantageous then the existing solutions for high power motors with 1:3 pole ratio. Using this motor, a new and complete drive supply system has been proposed as most appropriate arrangement of high power main naval propulsion drive. Further, the method makes possible to extend the pole ratio to 1:6, 1:9, 1:12, etc. At the end, the proposal is further extended to the here so far missing 1:4, 1:5, 1:7 etc. pole ratios. A complete proposal for the theoretically infinite range has been given in this way.

Keywords: Induction motor, pole changing 3Y/3Y, pole phase modulation, pole changing 1:3, 1:4, 1:5, 1:6.

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Authors: Young Sik Kim, Tae Kwon Ha

Abstract:

This article considers the problems of economic growth and Russian energy strategy. Also in this paper, the issues related to the economic growth prospects of Russian were discussed. Russian energy strategy without standing Russia`s stature in global energy markets, at the current production and extraction rates, will not be able to sustain its own production as well as fulfil its energy strategy. Indeed, Russia’s energy sector suffers from a chronic lack of investments which are necessary to modernize its energy supply system. In recent years, especially since the international financial crisis, Russia-EU energy cooperation has made substantive progress. Recently the break-through progress has been made, resulting mainly from long-term contributing factors between the countries and recent international economic and political situation changes. Analytical material presented in the article is intended for a more detailed or substantive analysis related to foreign economic relations of the countries and Russia as well.

Keywords: Russia, Energy strategy, Economic growth, Cooperation.

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Authors: Krešimir Fertalj, Mladen Matejaš

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In turbulent modern economy, the companies need to properly manage their business processes. Well-defined and stable business processes ensure security of crucial data and applications, and provide a quality product or service to the end customer. On the other side, constant changes on the market, new regulatory provisions, and emerging new technologies require the need of issuing prompt and effective changes of business process. In this article, we explore the use of agile principles in working with business process management (BPM) solutions. We deal with difficulties in BPM development cycle, review the benefits of using agility, and choose the basic agile principles that ensure the success of a BPM project.

Keywords: Agile development, BPM environment, Kanban, SCRUM, XP.

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Authors: Keun Woo Lee, Minky Son, Chanin Park, Ayoung Baek

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Certain tRNA synthetases have developed highly accurate molecular machinery to discriminate their cognate amino acids. Those aaRSs achieve their goal via editing reaction in the Connective Polypeptide 1 (CP1). Recently mutagenesis studies have revealed the critical importance of residues in the CP1 domain for editing activity and X-ray structures have shown binding mode of noncognate amino acids in the editing domain. To pursue molecular mechanism for amino acid discrimination, molecular modeling studies were performed. Our results suggest that aaRS bind the noncognate amino acid more tightly than the cognate one. Finally, by comparing binding conformations of the amino acids in three systems, the amino acid binding mode was elucidated and a discrimination mechanism proposed. The results strongly reveal that the conserved threonines are responsible for amino acid discrimination. This is achieved through side chain interactions between T252 and T247/T248 as well as between those threonines and the incoming amino acids.

Keywords: Amino acid discrimination, Binding free energy Leucyl-tRNAsynthetase, Molecular dynamics.

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Authors: Baghdasaryan Marinka

Abstract:

Monitoring the distribution of electric power consumption in the technological process of ore grinding is conducted. As a result, the impacts of the mill filling rate, the productivity of the ore supply, the volumetric density of the grinding balls, the specific density of the ground ore, and the relative speed of the mill rotation on the specific consumption of electric power have been studied. The power and technological factors affecting the reactive power generated by the synchronous motors, operating within the technological scheme are studied. A block diagram for evaluating the power consumption modes of the technological process is presented, which includes the analysis of the technological scheme, the determination of the place and volumetric density of the ore-grinding mill, the evaluation of the technological and power factors affecting the energy saving process, as well as the assessment of the electric power standards.

Keywords: Electric power standard, factor, ore grinding, power consumption, reactive power, technological.

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Authors: Keivan Karimlou, Nemat Hassani, Abdollah Rashidi Mehrabadi

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Climate change, industrial bloom, population growth and mismanagement are the most important factors that lead to water shortages around the world. Water shortages often lead to forced immigration, war, and thirst and hunger, especially in developing countries. One of the simplest solutions to solve the water shortage issues around the world is transferring water from one watershed to another; however it may not be a suitable solution. Water managers around the world use supply and demand management methods to decrease the incidence of water shortage in a sustainable manner. But as a matter of economic constraints, they must define a method to select the best possible action to reduce and limit water shortages. The following paper recognizes different kinds of criteria to select the best possible policy for reducing water shortage in mega cities by examining a comprehensive literature review.

Keywords: Criteria, management, shortage, sustainable, water.

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Authors: Kemal Bicakci, Yusuf Uzunay

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It is well-known that in wireless local area networks, authenticating nodes by their MAC addresses is not secure since it is very easy for an attacker to learn one of the authorized addresses and change his MAC address accordingly. In this paper, in order to prevent MAC address spoofing attacks, we propose to use dynamically changing MAC addresses and make each address usable for only one session. The scheme we propose does not require any change in 802.11 protocols and incurs only a small performance overhead. One of the nice features of our new scheme is that no third party can link different communication sessions of the same user by monitoring MAC addresses therefore our scheme is preferable also with respect to user privacy.

Keywords: Authentication, MAC address spoofing, security, wireless networks.

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Authors: B. M. Manjunatha, D. V. Ashok Kumar, M. Vijay Kumar

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This paper proposes five level diode clamped Z source Inverter. The existing PWM techniques used for ZSI are restricted for two level. The two level Z Source Inverter have high harmonic distortions which effects the performance of the grid connected PV system. To improve the performance of the system the number of voltage levels in the output waveform need to be increased. This paper presents comparative analysis of a five level diode clamped Z source Inverter with different carrier based Modified Pulse Width Modulation techniques. The parameters considered for comparison are output voltage, voltage gain, voltage stress across switch and total harmonic distortion when powered by same DC supply. Analytical results are verified using MATLAB.

Keywords: Diode Clamped, Pulse Width Modulation, total harmonic distortion, Z Source Inverter.

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Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

Abstract:

Breast cancer is in the top rate of cancer. We analyzed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer and finally we reviewed 25 article that 320 patient and 320 control which enrolled to our study. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman which is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulates the activities of growth steroids, obesity has confirmed as a risk factor for breast cancer. Our study and other studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And it can be prevented with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: Breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight.

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Authors: Amel Ltifi, Ahmed Zouinkhi, Med Salim Bouhlel

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Spontaneous networks such as VANET are in general deployed in an open and thus easily accessible environment. Therefore, they are vulnerable to attacks. Trust management is one of a set of security solutions dedicated to this type of networks. Moreover, the strong mobility of the nodes (in the case of VANET) makes the establishment of a trust management system complex. In this paper, we present a concept of ‘Active Vehicle’ which means an autonomous vehicle that is able to make decision about trustworthiness of alert messages transmitted about road accidents. The behavior of an “Active Vehicle” is modeled using Petri Nets.

Keywords: Component, active vehicle, cooperation, petri nets, trust management, VANET.

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Authors: Z. Khoshnood, L. Khoshnood

Abstract:

Pesticides and drugs used in agriculture and veterinary medicine may end up in aquatic environments and bioaccumulate in the food chain, thus causing serious problems for fauna and human health. For determination of the toxic effects of atrazine herbicide on Caspian kutum, Rutilus frisii kutum larvae, the 96-h LC50 of atrazine was measured for newly hatched larvae as 18.53 ppm. Toxicity of atrazine herbicide on Caspian kutum larvae was investigated using concentrations: 9.25ppm, 4.62 ppm and 2.31 ppm for 7 days. Comparison of the length, weight and condition factor showed that no significant differences between atrazine exposed and control groups. The concentration of Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and Cl- in whole body of larvae in control and atrazine exposure groups were measured and the results showed that concentrations of all these ions is higher in atrazine exposure group than control group. It is obvious from this study that atrazine negatively affects osmoregulation process and changes ion compositions of the body even at sublethal concentration and acute exposure but have no effects on growth parameters of the body.

Keywords: Atrazine, Caspian Kutum, Acute Toxicity, Body Ions, LC50.

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Authors: Cheng-Chi Lee, Min-Shiang Hwang, Shu-Yin Hsiao

Abstract:

Network exchange is now widely used. However, it still cannot avoid the problems evolving from network exchange. For example. A buyer may not receive the order even if he/she makes the payment. For another example, the seller possibly get nothing even when the merchandise is sent. Some studies about the fair exchange have proposed protocols for the design of efficiency and exploited the signature property to specify that two parties agree on the exchange. The information about purchased item and price are disclosed in this way. This paper proposes a new fair network payment protocol with off-line trusted third party. The proposed protocol can protect the buyers- purchase message from being traced. In addition, the proposed protocol can meet the proposed requirements. The most significant feature is Non-transfer property we achieved.

Keywords: E-commerce, digital signature, fair exchange, security.

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Authors: Victor Oluwaseyi Olowonisi

Abstract:

The paper aimed at presenting an overview on the concept of e-learning as it relates to higher education and how it provides opportunities for students, instructors and the government in developing the educational sector. It also touched on the benefits and challenges attached to e-learning as a new medium of reaching more students especially in the Nigerian context. The opportunities attributed to e-learning in the paper includes breaking boundaries barriers, reaching a larger number of students, provision of jobs for ICT experts, etc. In contrary, poor power supply, cost of implementation, poor computer literacy, technophobia (fear of technology), computer crime and system failure were some of the challenges of e-learning discussed in the paper. The paper proffered that the government can help the people gain more from e-learning through its financing. Also, it was stated that instructors/lecturers and students need to undergo training on computer application in order for e-learning to be more effective in developing higher education in Nigeria.

Keywords: E-Learning, education, higher education, increasing literacy.

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Authors: Hafiz Gulfam Ahmad, Chuangdong Li, Zeeshan Ahmad

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In this paper, we have proposed a parallel IDS and honeypot based approach to detect and analyze the unknown and known attack taxonomy for improving the IDS performance and protecting the network from intruders. The main theme of our approach is to record and analyze the intruder activities by using both the low and high interaction honeypots. Our architecture aims to achieve the required goals by combing signature based IDS, honeypots and generate the new signatures. The paper describes the basic component, design and implementation of this approach and also demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach to reduce the probability of network attacks.

Keywords: Network security, Intrusion detection, Honeypot, Snort, Nmap.

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Authors: Rudy Agustriyanto, Akbarningrum Fatmawati

Abstract:

The utilization of cheese whey as a fermentation substrate to produce bio-ethanol is an effort to supply bio-ethanol demand as a renewable energy. Like other process systems, modeling is also required for fermentation process design, optimization and plant operation. This research aims to study the fermentation process of cheese whey by applying mathematics and fundamental concept in chemical engineering, and to investigate the characteristic of the cheese whey fermentation process. Steady state simulation results for inlet substrate concentration of 50, 100 and 150 g/l, and various values of hydraulic retention time, showed that the ethanol productivity maximum values were 0.1091, 0.3163 and 0.5639 g/l.h respectively. Those values were achieved at hydraulic retention time of 20 hours, which was the minimum value used in this modeling. This showed that operating reactor at low hydraulic retention time was favorable. Model of bio-ethanol production from cheese whey will enhance the understanding of what really happen in the fermentation process.

Keywords: Cheese whey, ethanol, fermentation, modeling.

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Authors: A.Gjukaj, G.Kabashi, G.Pula, N.Avdiu, B.Prebreza

Abstract:

This paper discusses aspects of re-design of loadshedding schemes with respect to actual developments in the Kosovo power system. Load-shedding is a type of emergency control that is designed to ensure system stability by reducing power system load to match the power generation supply. This paper presents a new adaptive load-shedding scheme that provides emergency protection against excess frequency decline, in cases when the Kosovo power system might be disconnected from the regional transmission network. The proposed load-shedding scheme uses the local frequency rate information to adapt the load-shedding pattern to suit the size and location of the occurring disturbance. The proposed scheme is tested in a software simulation on a large scale PSS/E model which represents nine power system areas of Southeast Europe including the Kosovo power system.

Keywords: About Load Shedding, Power System Transient, PSS/E Dynamic Simulation, Under-frequency Protection

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Authors: Shengman Zhao, Yang Yu, Shenghui Cui

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Using logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition technique, this paper analyzes the change in industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province in China, based on data sets of added value and energy consumption for 35 selected industrial sub-sectors from 1999 to 2009. The change in industrial energy intensity is decomposed into intensity effect and structure effect. Results show that the industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province has achieved a reduction of 51% over the past ten years. The structural change, a shift in the mix of industrial sub-sectors, made overwhelming contribution to the reduction. The impact of energy efficiency’s improvement was relatively small. However, the aggregate industrial energy intensity was very sensitive to both the changes in energy intensity and in production share of energy-intensive sub-sectors, such as production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water. Pathway to reduce industrial energy intensity for energy conservation in Fujian Province is proposed in the end.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, energy intensity, Fujian Province, industry.

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Authors: Lien Fa Lin, Yung Ming Li, Hsin Chen Hsieh

Abstract:

The rise of smartphones brings new concept So-Lo-Mo (social-local-mobile) in mobile commerce area in recent years. However, current So-Lo-Mo services only focus on individual users but not a group of users, and the development of group commerce is not enough to satisfy the demand of real-time group buying and less to think about the social relationship between customers. In this research, we integrate mobile intelligence with group commerce and consider customers' preference, real-time context, and social influence as components in the mechanism. With the support of this mechanism, customers are able to gather near customers with the same potential purchase willingness through mobile devices when he/she wants to purchase products or services to have a real-time group-buying. By matching the demand and supply of mobile group-buying market, this research improves the business value of mobile commerce and group commerce further.

Keywords: Group formation, group commerce, mobile commerce, So-Lo-Mo, social influence.

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Authors: Khampheth Bounnady, Boontee Kruatrachue, Somkiat Wangsiripitak

Abstract:

This paper proposed high level feature for online Lao handwritten recognition. This feature must be high level enough so that the feature is not change when characters are written by different persons at different speed and different proportion (shorter or longer stroke, head, tail, loop, curve). In this high level feature, a character is divided in to sequence of curve segments where a segment start where curve reverse rotation (counter clockwise and clockwise). In each segment, following features are gathered cumulative change in direction of curve (- for clockwise), cumulative curve length, cumulative length of left to right, right to left, top to bottom and bottom to top ( cumulative change in X and Y axis of segment). This feature is simple yet robust for high accuracy recognition. The feature can be gather from parsing the original time sampling sequence X, Y point of the pen location without re-sampling. We also experiment on other segmentation point such as the maximum curvature point which was widely used by other researcher. Experiments results show that the recognition rates are at 94.62% in comparing to using maximum curvature point 75.07%. This is due to a lot of variations of turning points in handwritten.

Keywords: Handwritten feature, chain code, Lao handwritten recognition.

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Authors: Fatma Keskin Arabul, Ibrahim Senol, Ahmet Yigit Arabul, Ali Rifat Boynuegri

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On account of the concern of the fossil fuel is depleting and its negative effects on the environment, interest in alternative energy sources is increasing day by day. However, considering the importance of transportation in human life, instead of oil and its derivatives fueled vehicles with internal combustion engines, electric vehicles which are sensitive to the environment and working with electrical energy has begun to develop. In this study, simulation was carried out for providing energy management and recovering regenerative braking in fuel cell-battery hybrid electric vehicle. The main power supply of the vehicle is fuel cell on the other hand not only instantaneous power is supplied by the battery but also the energy generated due to regenerative breaking is stored in the battery. Obtained results of the simulation is analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Electric vehicles, fuel cell, battery, regenerative braking, energy management.

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Authors: Huiman C. Alberto

Abstract:

The research cites the various hazardous waste generated in the textile industry. The method used is descriptive and comparative, the process consisted of the search and evaluation of information, both nationally and internationally. The results indicate: (1) Waste is generated from the alpaca fiber industry in the various stages of camelid rearing, they stand out for their dangerousness: excreta, residual fiber and yarn scraps. (2) The main hazardous waste generated by the tannery industry are grease, hides, hair, plastic containers with traces of toxic substances, chips and pieces of leather with chrome. (3) Three companies' Solid Waste Management Plans were analyzed, randomly selected, and none of them detail waste treatment processes and warn of the lack of supervision by the authorities. It is concluded that the hazardous waste generated can affect human and environmental health. There is the possibility of taking advantage of certain hazardous waste such as manure and alpaca fiber, after treatment; while non-hazardous waste from the tannery such as yarn, panel weaving, cloth, scraps, and thread, can be used to produce new products, generating a production chain in favor of the entrepreneur himself.

Keywords: Alpaca fiber, excreta, Haute couture, hazardous waste tannery, hazardous waste treatment, textile waste,

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: Job safety, small and medium-size companies, SME, work risk, risk management.

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Authors: Bhed Bahadur Bista, Danda B. Rawat

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In this paper, we investigate multihop polling and data gathering schemes in layered sensor networks in order to extend the life time of the networks. A network consists of three layers. The lowest layer contains sensors. The middle layer contains so called super nodes with higher computational power, energy supply and longer transmission range than sensor nodes. The top layer contains a sink node. A node in each layer controls a number of nodes in lower layer by polling mechanism to gather data. We will present four types of data gathering schemes: intermediate nodes do not queue data packet, queue single packet, queue multiple packets and aggregate data, to see which data gathering scheme is more energy efficient for multihop polling in layered sensor networks.

Keywords: layered sensor network, polling, data gatheringschemes.

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Authors: A. O. Salami

Abstract:

The transportation problems are primarily concerned with the optimal way in which products produced at different plants (supply origins) are transported to a number of warehouses or customers (demand destinations). The objective in a transportation problem is to fully satisfy the destination requirements within the operating production capacity constraints at the minimum possible cost. The objective of this study is to determine ways of minimizing transportation cost in order to maximum profit. Data were sourced from the records of the Distribution Department of 7-Up Bottling Company Plc., Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. The data were computed and analyzed using the three methods of solving transportation problem. The result shows that the three methods produced the same total transportation costs amounting to N1, 358, 019, implying that any of the method can be adopted by the company in transporting its final products to the wholesale dealers in order to minimize total production cost. 

Keywords: Allocation problem, Cost Minimization, Distribution system, Resources utilization.

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Authors: Hae-Soon Ahn, Eun-Jun Yoon

Abstract:

Three-party password authenticated key exchange (3PAKE) protocols are widely deployed on lots of remote user authentication system due to its simplicity and convenience of maintaining a human-memorable password at client side to achieve secure communication within a hostile network. Recently, an improvement of 3PAKE protocol by processing a built-in data attached to other party for identity authentication to individual data was proposed by some researchers. However, this paper points out that the improved 3PAKE protocol is still vulnerable to undetectable on-line dictionary attack and off-line dictionary attack.

Keywords: Three-party key exchange, 3PAKE, Passwordauthenticated key exchange, Network security, Dictionary attack

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Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

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The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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