Search results for: Forward curve

Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc

Abstract:

S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.

Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV

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Authors: Hae-Soon Ahn, Eun-Jun Yoon

Abstract:

With the rapid development of wireless mobile communication, applications for mobile devices must focus on network security. In 2008, Chang-Chang proposed security improvements on the Lu et al.-s elliptic curve authentication key agreement protocol for wireless mobile networks. However, this paper shows that Chang- Chang-s improved protocol is still vulnerable to off-line password guessing attacks unlike their claims.

Keywords: Authentication, key agreement, wireless mobile networks, elliptic curve, password guessing attacks.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

Abstract:

The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.

Keywords: Closed-loop design, closed-loop supply chain, design evaluation, mathematical model, supply chain management, sustainable design model.

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Authors: M.Asif, M.R.Arshad, P.A.Wilson

Abstract:

In this paper, a simple active contour based visual tracking algorithm is presented for outdoor AGV application which is currently under development at the USM robotic research group (URRG) lab. The presented algorithm is computationally low cost and able to track road boundaries in an image sequence and can easily be implemented on available low cost hardware. The proposed algorithm used an active shape modeling using the B-spline deformable template and recursive curve fitting method to track the current orientation of the road.

Keywords: Active contour, B-spline, recursive curve fitting.

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Authors: Zoltan Horvath, Dora Nagy

Abstract:

In this research, it was examined whether individual COVID variants cause differences in the lactate curve of cyclists. After all, the virus variants attacked different organs in our body during the infections. During our tests, we used a traditional lactate step test, the results of which were compared with the values before the infection. In the tests, it has been proven that different virus variants show unique lactate curves. In this way, based on the lactate curve, it is possible to identify which variant caused the disease. Thanks to this, the return time has been shorten, because we can apply the best return protocol after infection to the competitors.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, lactate step test, virus mutation, lactate profile.

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Authors: S. A. Mohamed, A. S. Zayed, O. A. Abolaeha

Abstract:

A new Feed-Forward/Feedback Generalized Minimum Variance Pole-placement Controller to incorporate the robustness of classical pole-placement into the flexibility of generalized minimum variance self-tuning controller for Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) has been proposed in this paper. The design, which provides the user with an adaptive mechanism, which ensures that the closed loop poles are, located at their pre-specified positions. In addition, the controller design which has a feed-forward/feedback structure overcomes the certain limitations existing in similar poleplacement control designs whilst retaining the simplicity of adaptation mechanisms used in other designs. It tracks set-point changes with the desired speed of response, penalizes excessive control action, and can be applied to non-minimum phase systems. Besides, at steady state, the controller has the ability to regulate the constant load disturbance to zero. Example simulation results using both simulated and real plant models demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Pole-placement, Minimum variance control, self-tuning control and feedforward control.

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Authors: S. M. Rifat, André L. Marchildon, Mark F. Tachie

Abstract:

The effect of upstream surface roughness over a smooth forward facing step in an open channel was investigated using a particle image velocimetry technique. Three different upstream surface topographies consisting of hydraulically smooth wall, sandpaper 36 grit and sand grains were examined. Besides the wall roughness conditions, all other upstream flow characteristics were kept constant. It was also observed that upstream roughness decreased the approach velocity by 2% and 10% but increased the turbulence intensity by 14% and 35% at the wall-normal distance corresponding to the top plane of the step compared to smooth upstream. The results showed that roughness decreased the reattachment lengths by 14% and 30% compared to smooth upstream. Although the magnitudes of maximum positive and negative Reynolds shear stress in separated and reattached region were 0.02Ue for all the cases, the physical size of both the maximum and minimum contour levels were decreased by increasing upstream roughness.

Keywords: Forward facing step, open channel, separated and reattached turbulent flows, wall roughness.

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Authors: E. A. Azrulhisham, Y. M. Asri, A. W. Dzuraidah, A. H. Hairul Fahmi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking into account the variation of material properties associated with the size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of probability of failure of mass-produced parts.

Keywords: Stub axle, Fatigue life reliability, Stress-life, PSN curve, Weibull distribution, Pearson system

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Authors: Jianwei Zhang, Dazhi Jiang, Huaxin Peng, Chunqi Wang

Abstract:

Stress-strain curve of inter-tube connected carbon nanotube (CNT) reinforced polymer composite under axial loading generated from molecular dynamics simulation is presented. Comparison of the response to axial mechanical loading between this composite system with composite systems reinforced by long, continuous CNTs (replicated via periodic boundary conditions) and short, discontinuous CNTs has been made. Simulation results showed that the inter-tube connection improved the mechanical properties of short discontinuous CNTs dramatically. Though still weaker than long CNT/polymer composite, more remarkable increase in the stiffness relative to the polymer was observed in the inter-tube connected CNT/polymer composite than in the discontinuous CNT/polymer composite. The manually introduced bridge break process resulted in a stress-strain curve of ductile fracture mode, which is consistent with the experimental result.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, inter-tube connection, molecular dynamics, stress-strain curve

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Authors: Petia Georgieva, Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo

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This paper is focused on issues of nonlinear dynamic process modeling and model-based predictive control of a fed-batch sugar crystallization process applying the concept of artificial neural networks as computational tools. The control objective is to force the operation into following optimal supersaturation trajectory. It is achieved by manipulating the feed flow rate of sugar liquor/syrup, considered as the control input. A feed forward neural network (FFNN) model of the process is first built as part of the controller structure to predict the process response over a specified (prediction) horizon. The predictions are supplied to an optimization procedure to determine the values of the control action over a specified (control) horizon that minimizes a predefined performance index. The control task is rather challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of the process dynamics and variations in the crystallization kinetics. However, the simulation results demonstrated smooth behavior of the control actions and satisfactory reference tracking.

Keywords: Feed forward neural network, process modelling, model predictive control, crystallization process.

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Authors: Manal Mhada, BrahimEzzahiri, Ouafae Benlhabib

Abstract:

Seventy-nine accessions, including two local wild species (Chenopodium album and C. murale) and several cultivated quinoa lines developed through recurrent selection in Morocco were screened for their resistance against Peronospora farinose, the causal agent of downy mildew disease. The method of artificial inoculation on detached healthy leaves taken from the middle stage of the plant was used. Screened accessions showed different levels of quantitative resistance to downy mildew as they were scored through the calculation of their area under disease progress curve and their two resistance components, the incubation period and the latent period. Significant differences were found between accessions regarding the three criteria (Incubation Period, Latent Period and Area Under Diseases Progress Curve). Accessions M2a and S938/1 were ranked resistant as they showed the longest Incubation Period (7 days) and Latent Period (12 days) and the lowest area under diseases progress curve (4). Therefore, M24 is the most susceptible accession as it has presented the highest area under diseases progress curve (34.5) and the shortest Incubation Period (1 day) and Latent Period (3 days). In parallel to this evaluation approach, the accession resistance was confirmed under the field conditions through natural infection by using the tree-leaf method. The high correlation found between detached leaf inoculation method and field screening under natural infection allows us to use this laboratory technique with sureness in further selection works.

Keywords: Detached leaf inoculation, Downy mildew, Field screening, Quinoa.

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Authors: Melih Turgut, Süha Yılmaz

Abstract:

In this paper, first, a characterization of spherical Pseudo null curves in Semi-Euclidean space is given. Then, to investigate position vector of a pseudo null curve, a system of differential equation whose solution gives the components of the position vector of a pseudo null curve on the Frenet axis is established by means of Frenet equations. Additionally, in view of some special solutions of mentioned system, characterizations of some special pseudo null curves are presented.

Keywords: Semi-Euclidean Space, Pseudo Null Curves, Position Vectors.

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Authors: Abdul Jamil Nazari, Shigeo Honma

Abstract:

This paper evaluates and compares the effect of fractional flow curves on the heavy oil and light oil recoveries in a petroleum reservoir. Fingering of flowing water is one of the serious problems of the oil displacement by water and another problem is the estimation of the amount of recover oil from a petroleum reservoir. To address these problems, the fractional flow of heavy oil and light oil are investigated. The fractional flow approach treats the multi-phases flow rate as a total mixed fluid and then describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. Laboratory experiments are implemented for two different types of oils, heavy oil, and light oil, to experimentally obtain relative permeability and fractional flow curves. Application of the light oil fractional curve, which exhibits a regular S-shape, to the water flooding method showed that a large amount of mobile oil in the reservoir is displaced by water injection. In contrast, the fractional flow curve of heavy oil does not display an S-shape because of its high viscosity. Although the advance of the injected waterfront is faster than in light oil reservoirs, a significant amount of mobile oil remains behind the waterfront.

Keywords: Fractional flow curve, oil recovery, relative permeability, water fingering.

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Seyed Mohammad Reza Hosseini

Abstract:

The measured soil suction values when related to water content is called suction-water content relationship (SWR) or soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) and forms the basis of unsaturated soil behavior assessment. The SWCC can be measured or predicted based on soil index properties such as grain-size distribution and plasticity index. In this paper, the SWCC of clean and contaminated clayey soil classified as clay with low plasticity (CL) are presented. Laboratory studies were conducted on virgin (disturbed-uncontaminated soil collected from vicinity of Tehran oil refinery) soil and soil samples simulated to varying degrees of contamination with crude oil (i.e., 3, 6, and 9% by dry weight of soil) to compare the results before and after contamination. Laboratory tests were conducted using a device which is capable of measuring volume change and pore pressures. The soil matric suction at the ends of samples controlled by using the axis translation technique. The results show that contamination with crude oil facilitates the movement of water and reduces the soil suction.

Keywords: Axis translation technique, clayey soil, contamination, crude oil, soil-water characteristic curve.

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Mekki Mounira

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In this paper, we propose an easily computable proximity index for predicting voltage collapse of a load bus using only measured values of the bus voltage and power; Using these measurements a polynomial of fourth order is obtained by using LES estimation algorithms. The sum of the absolute values of the polynomial coefficient gives an idea of the critical bus. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on 6 bus test system. The results obtained verify its applicability, as well as its accuracy and the simplicity. From this indicator, it is allowed to predict the voltage instability or the proximity of a collapse. Results obtained by the PV curve are compared with corresponding values by QV curves and are observed to be in close agreement.

Keywords: least square method, Voltage Collapse, Voltage Stability, PV curve

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Authors: Maria Hussin, Malik Zawwar Hussain, Mubashrah Saddiqa

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We present a trigonometric scheme to approximate a circular arc with its two end points and two end tangents/unit tangents. A rational cubic trigonometric Bézier curve is constructed whose end control points are defined by the end points of the circular arc. Weight functions and the remaining control points of the cubic trigonometric Bézier curve are estimated by variational approach to reproduce a circular arc. The radius error is calculated and found less than the existing techniques.

Keywords: Control points, rational trigonometric Bézier curves, radius error, shape measure, weight functions.

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Authors: Si Chen, Caroline Wiltshire, Bin Li

Abstract:

This study statistically models the surface f0 contour and the underlying pitch target of a well-studied third sandhi tone of Mandarin Chinese. Although the growth curve analysis on the surface f0 contours indicates non-neutralization of this sandhi tone (T3) and the base T2, their underlying pitch targets do show neutralization. These results in Mandarin are also consistent with the perception of native speakers, where they cannot distinguish the third T3 from the base T2, compensating contextual variation. It is possible to use the proposed statistical procedure of testing underlying pitch targets to verify tone sandhi processes in other tonal languages.

Keywords: Growth curve analysis, tone sandhi, underlying pitch targets.

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

Abstract:

Program slicing is the task of finding all statements in a program that directly or indirectly influence the value of a variable occurrence. The set of statements that can affect the value of a variable at some point in a program is called a program backward slice. In several software engineering applications, such as program debugging and measuring program cohesion and parallelism, several slices are computed at different program points. The existing algorithms for computing program slices are introduced to compute a slice at a program point. In these algorithms, the program, or the model that represents the program, is traversed completely or partially once. To compute more than one slice, the same algorithm is applied for every point of interest in the program. Thus, the same program, or program representation, is traversed several times. In this paper, an algorithm is introduced to compute all forward static slices of a computer program by traversing the program representation graph once. Therefore, the introduced algorithm is useful for software engineering applications that require computing program slices at different points of a program. The program representation graph used in this paper is called Program Dependence Graph (PDG).

Keywords: Program slicing, static slicing, forward slicing, program dependence graph (PDG).

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Authors: Shobha Sharma, Amita Dev

Abstract:

Data driven dynamic logic is the high speed dynamic circuit with low area. The clock of the dynamic circuit is removed and data drives the circuit instead of clock for precharging purpose. This data driven dynamic nand gate is given static forward substrate biasing of Vsupply/2 as well as the substrate bias is connected to the input data, resulting in dynamic substrate bias. The dynamic substrate bias gives the shortest propagation delay with a penalty on the power dissipation. Propagation delay is reduced by 77.8% compared to the normal reverse substrate bias Data driven dynamic nand. Also dynamic substrate biased D3nand’s propagation delay is reduced by 31.26% compared to data driven dynamic nand gate with static forward substrate biasing of Vdd/2. This data driven dynamic nand gate with dynamic body biasing gives us the highest speed with no area penalty and finds its applications where power penalty is acceptable. Also combination of Dynamic and static Forward body bias can be used with reduced propagation delay compared to static forward biased circuit and with comparable increase in an average power. The simulations were done on hspice simulator with 22nm High-k metal gate strained Si technology HP models of Arizona State University, USA.

Keywords: Data driven nand gate, dynamic substrate biasing, nand gate, static substrate biasing.

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Authors: Rongli Gai, Zhiyuan Chang, Xiaohong Wang, Jingyu Liu

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In view of various situations in the interpolation process, most researchers use self-adaptation to adjust the interpolation process, which is also one of the current and future research hotspots in the field of CNC (Computerized Numerical Control) machining. In the interpolation process, according to the overview of the spline curve interpolation algorithm, the adaptive analysis is carried out from the factors affecting the interpolation process. The adaptive operation is reflected in various aspects, such as speed, parameters, errors, nodes, feed rates, random period, sensitive point, step size, curvature, adaptive segmentation, adaptive optimization, etc. This paper will analyze and summarize the research of adaptive imputation in the direction of the above factors affecting imputation.

Keywords: Adaptive algorithm, CNC machining, interpolation constraints, spline curve interpolation.

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Authors: Aytunc Durlanik, Ibrahim Sogukpinar

Abstract:

SIP (Session Initiation Protocol), using HTML based call control messaging which is quite simple and efficient, is being replaced for VoIP networks recently. As for authentication and authorization purposes there are many approaches and considerations for securing SIP to eliminate forgery on the integrity of SIP messages. On the other hand Elliptic Curve Cryptography has significant advantages like smaller key sizes, faster computations on behalf of other Public Key Cryptography (PKC) systems that obtain data transmission more secure and efficient. In this work a new approach is proposed for secure SIP authentication by using a public key exchange mechanism using ECC. Total execution times and memory requirements of proposed scheme have been improved in comparison with non-elliptic approaches by adopting elliptic-based key exchange mechanism.

Keywords: SIP, Elliptic Curve Cryptography, voice over IP.

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Authors: Raju Bhukya, DVLN Somayajulu

Abstract:

Pattern matching is one of the fundamental applications in molecular biology. Searching DNA related data is a common activity for molecular biologists. In this paper we explore the applicability of a new pattern matching technique called Index based Forward Backward Multiple Pattern Matching algorithm(IFBMPM), for DNA Sequences. Our approach avoids unnecessary comparisons in the DNA Sequence due to this; the number of comparisons of the proposed algorithm is very less compared to other existing popular methods. The number of comparisons rapidly decreases and execution time decreases accordingly and shows better performance.

Keywords: Comparisons, DNA Sequence, Index.

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Authors: Y. Boutiche, N. Ramou, M. Ben Gharsallah

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This paper is devoted to present and discuss a model that allows a local segmentation by using statistical information of a given image. It is based on Chan-Vese model, curve evolution, partial differential equations and binary level sets method. The proposed model uses the piecewise constant approximation of Chan-Vese model to compute Signed Pressure Force (SPF) function, this one attracts the curve to the true object(s)-s boundaries. The implemented model is used to extract weld defects from weld radiographic images in the aim to calculate the perimeter and surfaces of those weld defects; encouraged resultants are obtained on synthetic and real radiographic images.

Keywords: Active contour, Chan-Vese Model, local segmentation, weld radiographic images.

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Authors: Olumayede Emmanuel Gbenga, Adeniyi Azeez Adebayo

Abstract:

Carbonyls are the first-generation products from tropospheric degradation reactions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This computational study examined the mechanism of removal of carbonyls from the atmosphere via hydroxyl radical. The kinetics of the reactions were computed from the activation energy (using enthalpy (ΔH**) and Gibbs free energy (ΔG**). The minimum energy path (MEP) analysis reveals that in all the molecules, the products have more stable energy than the reactants, which implies that the forward reaction is more thermodynamically favorable. The hydrogen abstraction of the aromatic aldehyde, especially without methyl substituents, is more kinetically favorable compared with the other aldehydes in the order of aromatic (without methyl or meta methyl) > alkene (short chain) > diene > long-chain aldehydes. The activation energy is much lower for the forward reaction than the backward, indicating that the forward reactions are more kinetically stable than their backward reaction. In terms of thermodynamic stability, the aromatic compounds are found to be less favorable in comparison to the aliphatic. The study concludes that the chemistry of the carbonyl bond of the aldehyde changed significantly from the reactants to the products.

Keywords: Atmospheric carbonyls, oxidation, mechanism, kinetic, thermodynamic.

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Authors: Thomas Kampke

Abstract:

Equations with differentials relating to the inverse of an unknown function rather than to the unknown function itself are solved exactly for some special cases and numerically for the general case. Invertibility combined with differentiability over connected domains forces solutions always to be monotone. Numerical function inversion is key to all solution algorithms which either are of a forward type or a fixed point type considering whole approximate solution functions in each iteration. The given considerations are restricted to ordinary differential equations with inverted functions (ODEIs) of first order. Forward type computations, if applicable, admit consistency of order one and, under an additional accuracy condition, convergence of order one.

Keywords: Euler method, fixed points, golden section, multi-step procedures, Runge Kutta methods.

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Authors: A. Rashid, N. Hasan

Abstract:

The present study investigates numerically the phenomenon of vortex-shedding and its suppression in twodimensional mixed convective flow past a square cylinder under the joint influence of buoyancy and free-stream orientation with respect to gravity. The numerical experiments have been conducted at a fixed Reynolds number (Re) of 100 and Prandtl number (Pr) of 0.71, while Richardson number (Ri) is varied from 0 to 1.6 and freestream orientation, α, is kept in the range 0o≤ α ≤ 90o, with 0o corresponding to an upward flow and 90o representing a cross-flow scenario, respectively. The continuity, momentum and energy equations, subject to Boussinesq approximation, are discretized using a finite difference method and are solved by a semi-explicit pressure correction scheme. The critical Richardson number, leading to the suppression of the vortex-shedding (Ric), is estimated by using Stuart-Landau theory at various free-stream orientations and the neutral curve is obtained in the Ri-α plane. The neutral curve exhibits an interesting non-monotonic behavior with Ric first increasing with increasing values of α upto 45o and then decreasing till 70o. Beyond 70o, the neutral curve again exhibits a sharp increasing asymptotic trend with Ric approaching very large values as α approaches 90o. The suppression of vortex shedding is not observed at α = 90o (cross-flow). In the unsteady flow regime, the Strouhal number (St) increases with the increase in Richardson number.

Keywords: bluff body, buoyancy, free-stream orientation, vortex-shedding.

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Authors: Ahmed Sakr Ashour, Hoda Saad AboRemila

Abstract:

An attempt was made to fill the gap in the macro analysis of corruption by suggesting a conceptual framework that differentiates four types of macro corruption: state capture, political, bureaucratic and financial/corporate. The economic consequences or forward linkages (growth, inclusiveness and sustainability of development) and macro institutional determinants constituting the backward linkages of each type were delineated. The research implications of the macro perspective and proposed framework were discussed. Implications of the findings for theory, research and reform policies addressing macro corruption issues were discussed.

Keywords: Economic growth, Inclusive growth, macro corruption, sustainable development.

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Authors: Xianghan O’Dea

Abstract:

This article argues an urgent need to better understand the personal experiences of Chinese top-up students studying in the UK since the number of Chinese students taking year-long top-up programmes in the UK has risen rapidly in recent years. This lack of knowledge could potentially have implications for the reputation of some UK institutions and also the attractiveness of the UK higher education sector to future international students. This longitudinal study explored the academic and social experiences of 12 Chinese top-up students in a UK institution in-depth and revealed that the students felt their experiences were influenced significantly by their surrounding contexts at the macro and meso levels, which, however, have been largely overlooked in existing research. This article suggests the importance of improving the communications between the partner institutions in China and the UK, and also providing sufficient pre-departure and after arrival support to Chinese top-up students at the institutional level.

Keywords: Articulation agreements, Chinese top-up students, top-up programmes, U curve.

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Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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