Search results for: prediction model

Authors: David W.S. Tai, Ren-Cheng Zhang, Sheng-Hung Chang, Chin-Pin Chen, Jia-Ling Chen

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This study reports results of a meta-analytic path analysis e-learning Acceptance Model with k = 27 studies, Databases searched included Information Sciences Institute (ISI) website. Variables recorded included perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude toward behavior, and behavioral intention to use e-learning. A correlation matrix of these variables was derived from meta-analytic data and then analyzed by using structural path analysis to test the fitness of the e-learning acceptance model to the observed aggregated data. Results showed the revised hypothesized model to be a reasonable, good fit to aggregated data. Furthermore, discussions and implications are given in this article.

Keywords: E-learning, Meta Analytic Path Analysis, Technology Acceptance Model

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Authors: Devdutt

Abstract:

In this paper, passenger seat vibration control of an active quarter car model under random road excitations is considered. The designed ANFIS and Summing ANFIS PID controllers are assembled in primary suspension system of quarter car model. Simulation work is performed in time and frequency domain to obtain passenger seat acceleration and displacement responses. Simulation results show that Summing ANFIS PID based controller is highly suitable to suppress the road induced vibrations in quarter car model to achieve desired passenger ride comfort and safety compared to ANFIS and passive system.

Keywords: Quarter car model, Active suspension system, Summing ANFIS PID controller, Passenger ride comfort.

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Authors: Insung Jung, Gi-Nam Wang

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In this paper, we present user pattern learning algorithm based MDSS (Medical Decision support system) under ubiquitous. Most of researches are focus on hardware system, hospital management and whole concept of ubiquitous environment even though it is hard to implement. Our objective of this paper is to design a MDSS framework. It helps to patient for medical treatment and prevention of the high risk patient (COPD, heart disease, Diabetes). This framework consist database, CAD (Computer Aided diagnosis support system) and CAP (computer aided user vital sign prediction system). It can be applied to develop user pattern learning algorithm based MDSS for homecare and silver town service. Especially this CAD has wise decision making competency. It compares current vital sign with user-s normal condition pattern data. In addition, the CAP computes user vital sign prediction using past data of the patient. The novel approach is using neural network method, wireless vital sign acquisition devices and personal computer DB system. An intelligent agent based MDSS will help elder people and high risk patients to prevent sudden death and disease, the physician to get the online access to patients- data, the plan of medication service priority (e.g. emergency case).

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, MDSS, CAP, DSS.

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Authors: A. Majid Bahari, Kourosh Hejazi

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Different variants for buoyancy-affected terms in k-ε turbulence model have been utilized to predict the flow parameters more accurately, and investigate applicability of alternative k-ε turbulence buoyant closures in numerical simulation of a horizontal gravity current. The additional non-isotropic turbulent stress due to buoyancy has been considered in production term, based on Algebraic Stress Model (ASM). In order to account for turbulent scalar fluxes, general gradient diffusion hypothesis has been used along with Boussinesq gradient diffusion hypothesis with a variable turbulent Schmidt number and additional empirical constant c3ε.To simulate buoyant flow domain a 2D vertical numerical model (WISE, Width Integrated Stratified Environments), based on Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, has been deployed and the model has been further developed for different k-ε turbulence closures. Results are compared against measured laboratory values of a saline gravity current to explore the efficient turbulence model.

Keywords: Buoyant flows, Buoyant k-ε turbulence model, saline gravity current.

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Authors: David Lávicka

Abstract:

This paper looks into detailed investigation of thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the flow field in a fuel rod model, especially near the spacer. The area investigate represents a source of information on the velocity flow field, vortex, and on the amount of heat transfer into the coolant all of which are critical for the design and improvement of the fuel rod in nuclear power plants. The flow field investigation uses three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with the Reynolds stresses turbulence model (RSM). The fuel rod model incorporates a vertical annular channel where three different shapes of spacers are used; each spacer shape is addressed individually. These spacers are mutually compared in consideration of heat transfer capabilities between the coolant and the fuel rod model. The results are complemented with the calculated heat transfer coefficient in the location of the spacer and along the stainless-steel pipe.

Keywords: CFD, fuel rod model, heat transfer, spacer

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: Causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software.

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Authors: Xu Rumin, Chen Jianyi, Yue Ti, Wang Yaan

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With the rapid development of subsea oil and gas exploitation, the demand for the related underwater process equipment is increasing fast. In order to reduce the energy consuming, people tend to separate the gas and oil phase directly on the seabed. Accordingly, an advanced separator is needed. In this paper, the pressure drop of a new type of separator named Gas Liquid Cylindrical Cyclone (GLCC) which is used in the subsea system is investigated by both experiments and numerical simulation. In the experiments, the single phase flow and gas-liquid two phase flow in GLCC were tested. For the simulation, the performance of GLCC under both laboratory and industrial conditions was calculated. The Eulerian model was implemented to describe the mixture flow field in the GLCC under experimental conditions and industrial oil-natural gas conditions. Furthermore, a relationship among Euler number (Eu), Reynolds number (Re), and Froude number (Fr) is generated according to similarity analysis and simulation data, which can present the GLCC separation performance of pressure drop. These results can give reference to the design and application of GLCC in deep sea.

Keywords: Dimensionless analysis, gas-liquid cylindrical cyclone, numerical simulation; pressure drop.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

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Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

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Authors: Anirudha Narain, Dinesh Chandra, Ravindra K. S.

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A computationally simple approach of model order reduction for single input single output (SISO) and linear timeinvariant discrete systems modeled in frequency domain is proposed in this paper. Denominator of the reduced order model is determined using fuzzy C-means clustering while the numerator parameters are found by matching time moments and Markov parameters of high order system.

Keywords: Model Order reduction, Discrete-time system, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Padé approximation.

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Authors: Imene Atek, Abed M. Affoune, Hubert Girault, Pekka Peljo

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Due to the need for a rigorous mathematical model that can help to estimate kinetic properties for soluble-insoluble systems, through voltammetric experiments, a Nicholson Semi Analytical Approach was used in this work for modeling and prediction of theoretical linear sweep voltammetry responses for reversible, quasi reversible or irreversible electron transfer reactions. The redox system of interest is a one-step metal electrodeposition process. A rigorous analysis of simulated linear scan voltammetric responses following variation of dimensionless factors, the rate constant and charge transfer coefficients in a broad range was studied and presented in the form of the so called kinetic zones diagrams. These kinetic diagrams were divided into three kinetics zones. Interpreting these zones leads to empirical mathematical models which can allow the experimenter to determine electrodeposition reactions kinetics whatever the degree of reversibility. The validity of the obtained results was tested and an excellent experiment–theory agreement has been showed.

Keywords: Electrodeposition, kinetics diagrams, modeling, voltammetry.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is widely used and an accepted measure of energy expenditure. Its principal determinant is body mass. However, this parameter is also correlated with a variety of other factors. The objective of this study is to measure BMR and compare it with the values obtained from predictive equations in adults classified according to their body mass index (BMI) values. 276 adults were included into the scope of this study. Their age, height and weight values were recorded. Five groups were designed based on their BMI values. First group (n = 85) was composed of individuals with BMI values varying between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m². Those with BMI values varying from 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m² constituted Group 2 (n = 90). Individuals with 30.0-34.9 kg/m², 35.0-39.9 kg/m², > 40.0 kg/m² were included in Group 3 (n = 53), 4 (n = 28) and 5 (n = 20), respectively. The most commonly used equations to be compared with the measured BMR values were selected. For this purpose, the values were calculated by the use of four equations to predict BMR values, by name, introduced by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations University (UNU), Harris and Benedict, Owen and Mifflin. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, post-Hoc Tukey and Pearson’s correlation tests were performed by a statistical program designed for Windows (SPSS, version 16.0). p values smaller than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Mean ± SD of groups 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for measured BMR in kcal were 1440.3 ± 210.0, 1618.8 ± 268.6, 1741.1 ± 345.2, 1853.1 ± 351.2 and 2028.0 ± 412.1, respectively. Upon evaluation of the comparison of means among groups, differences were highly significant between Group 1 and each of the remaining four groups. The values were increasing from Group 2 to Group 5. However, differences between Group 2 and Group 3, Group 3 and Group 4, Group 4 and Group 5 were not statistically significant. These insignificances were lost in predictive equations proposed by Harris and Benedict, FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen. For Mifflin, the insignificance was limited only to Group 4 and Group 5. Upon evaluation of the correlations of measured BMR and the estimated values computed from prediction equations, the lowest correlations between measured BMR and estimated BMR values were observed among the individuals within normal BMI range. The highest correlations were detected in individuals with BMI values varying between 30.0 and 34.9 kg/m². Correlations between measured BMR values and BMR values calculated by FAO/WHO/UNU as well as Owen were the same and the highest. In all groups, the highest correlations were observed between BMR values calculated from Mifflin and Harris and Benedict equations using age as an additional parameter. In conclusion, the unique resemblance of the FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen equations were pointed out. However, mean values obtained from FAO/WHO/UNU were much closer to the measured BMR values. Besides, the highest correlations were found between BMR calculated from FAO/WHO/UNU and measured BMR. These findings suggested that FAO/WHO/UNU was the most reliable equation, which may be used in conditions when the measured BMR values are not available.

Keywords: Adult, basal metabolic rate, FAO/WHO/UNU, obesity, prediction equations.

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Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

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This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

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This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision –making.

Keywords: Ecosystem model, Environmental security, Fuzzy logic, Sustainability of habitable regions.

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Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

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Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Hypromellose, gliclazide, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

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Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from ¹¹B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of ³He+¹¹B nuclear system at different ³He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (J_R, J_W) have been calculated for ³He+¹¹B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor N_r is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

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In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

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The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

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In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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Authors: D. G. Badagha, C. D. Modhera, S. A. Vasanwala

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There is a great challenge for civil engineering field to contribute in environment prevention by finding out alternatives of cement and natural aggregates. There is a problem of global warming due to cement utilization in concrete, so it is necessary to give sustainable solution to produce concrete containing waste. It is very difficult to produce designated grade of concrete containing different ingredient and water cement ratio including waste to achieve desired fresh and harden properties of concrete as per requirement and specifications. To achieve the desired grade of concrete, a number of trials have to be taken, and then after evaluating the different parameters at long time performance, the concrete can be finalized to use for different purposes. This research work is carried out to solve the problem of time, cost and serviceability in the field of construction. In this research work, artificial neural network introduced to fix proportion of concrete ingredient with 50% waste replacement for M20, M25, M30, M35, M40, M45, M50, M55 and M60 grades of concrete. By using the neural network, mix design of high performance concrete was finalized, and the main basic mechanical properties were predicted at 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. The predicted strength was compared with the actual experimental mix design and concrete cube strength after 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. This experimentally and neural network based mix design can be used practically in field to give cost effective, time saving, feasible and sustainable high performance concrete for different types of structures.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, ANN, high performance concrete, rebound hammer, strength prediction.

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Authors: A. Zanaz, S. Yotte, F. Fouchal, A. Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven, taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: Masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

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The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP), Finite element analysis (FEA), Pre-impregnated textile composite, Non-isothermal forming.

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Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

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The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Monetary Input-Output Model, Manufacturing Process, Laptop Computer.

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis.

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Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

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Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipments like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: Bump Integrator, Pavement Distresses, Roughness Index, SPSS.

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Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

Abstract:

In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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