Commenced in January 2007
Paper Count: 30184
Forecasting of Flash Floods over Wadi Watier –Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany
Abstract:Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1084350Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1554
 X. Lin, "Flash floods in arid and semi-arid zones," IHP-V Technical Documents in Hydrology, no. 23, 1999.
 K. Smith, and R. Ward, "Floods - physical processes and human impacts," John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, UK, 1998.
 R.A. Houze, "Cloud dynamics," Academic Press, 573pp, 1993.
 R.A. Houze, "Stratiform precipitation in regions of convection," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 2179-95, 1997.
 UNEP, "World atlas of desertification," United Nations Environment Programme, 1992.
 W. Skamarock, J. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. Gill, D. Barker, M. Duda, X. Huang, W. Wang, and J. Powers, "A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3," NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN- 475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.
 M. El-Sammany, "Tool to analyze remote sensing data for rainfall forecasting," FlaFloM (Flash Flood Manager), report no. 21, Water Resources Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt, 2009.
 J. Done, C. Davis, and M. Weisman, "The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model," Atmos. Sci. Letters., 5, pp. 110-117, 2004.
 ESRI, "ArcGIS Version 9.3," http://www.esri.com