Search results for: Regression analysis.

Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

Abstract:

Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation.

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Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the overpressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, Safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRAN.

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Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: Availability Analysis, Markov Process, Performance Modeling, Steady State Availability.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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Authors: Pranee Pathomchaiwat

Abstract:

The purposes of this research are 1) to study English language learning strategies used by the fourth-year students majoring in English and Business English, 2) to study the English language learning strategies which have an affect on English learning achievement, and 3) to compare the English language learning strategies used by the students majoring in English and Business English. The population and sampling comprise of 139 university students of the Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Research instruments are language learning strategies questionnaire which was constructed by the researcher and improved on by three experts and the transcripts that show the results of English learning achievement. The questionnaire includes 1) Language Practice Strategy 2)Memory Strategy 3) Communication Strategy 4)Making an Intelligent Guess or Compensation Strategy 5) Self-discipline in Learning Management Strategy 6) Affective Strategy 7)Self-Monitoring Strategy 8) Self-studySkill Strategy. Statistics used in the study are mean, standard deviation, T-test and One Way ANOVA, Pearson product moment correlation coefficient and Regression Analysis. The results of the findings reveal that the English language learning strategies most frequently used by the students are affective strategy, making an intelligent guess or compensation strategy, self-studyskill strategy and self-monitoring strategy respectively. The aspect of making an intelligent guess or compensation strategy had the most significant affect on English learning achievement. It is found that the English language learning strategies mostly used by the Business English major students and moderately used by the English major students. Their language practice strategies uses were significantly different at the 0.05 level and their communication strategies uses were significantly different at the 0.01 level. In addition, it is found that the poor students and the fair ones most frequently used affective strategy while the good ones most frequently used making an intelligent guess or compensation strategy. KeywordsEnglish language, language learning strategies, English learning achievement, and students majoring in English, Business English. Pranee Pathomchaiwat is an Assistant Professor in Business English Program, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, Bangkok, Thailand (e-mail: [email protected]).

Keywords: English language, language learning strategies, English learning achievement, students majoring in English, Business English

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Authors: César Garza

Abstract:

In supervised binary classification and regression problems, it is well-known that learnability is equivalent to uniform convergence of the hypothesis class, and if a problem is learnable, it is learnable by empirical risk minimization. For the general learning setting of unsupervised learning tasks, there are non-trivial learning problems where uniform convergence does not hold. We present here the task of learning centers of mass with an extra feature that “activates” some of the coordinates over the unit ball in a Hilbert space. We show that the learning problem is learnable under a stable RLM rule. We introduce a family of distributions over the domain space with some mild restrictions for which the sample complexity of uniform convergence for these problems must grow logarithmically with the dimension of the Hilbert space. If we take this dimension to infinity, we obtain a learnable problem for which the uniform convergence property fails for a vast family of distributions.

Keywords: Statistical learning theory, learnability, uniform convergence, stability, regularized loss minimization.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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Authors: R. P. Mahapatra, Jitendra Singh

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This paper proposes a new technique for improving the efficiency of software testing, which is based on a conventional attempt to reduce test cases that have to be tested for any given software. The approach utilizes the advantage of Regression Testing where fewer test cases would lessen time consumption of the testing as a whole. The technique also offers a means to perform test case generation automatically. Compared to one of the techniques in the literature where the tester has no option but to perform the test case generation manually, the proposed technique provides a better option. As for the test cases reduction, the technique uses simple algebraic conditions to assign fixed values to variables (Maximum, minimum and constant variables). By doing this, the variables values would be limited within a definite range, resulting in fewer numbers of possible test cases to process. The technique can also be used in program loops and arrays.

Keywords: Software Testing, Test Case Generation, Test CaseReduction

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Authors: Djilani Kobibi Youcef Islam, Hadjeri Samir, Djehaf Mohamed Abdeldjalil

Abstract:

The Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) technology is a new advanced solution that increases the reliability and provides more flexibility, controllability, and stability of a power system. The Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC), as the most versatile FACTS device for regulating power flow, is able to control respectively transmission line real power, reactive power, and node voltage. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the UPFC on the load flow, the power losses, and the voltage stability using NEPLAN software modules, Newton-Raphson load flow is used for the power flow analysis and the modal analysis is used for the study of the voltage stability. The simulation was carried out on the IEEE 14-bus test system.

Keywords: FACTS, load flow, modal analysis, UPFC, voltage stability.

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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Authors: Byung-Soo Shin, Nam-Seok Kim, Sang-Kyu Lee, O-Hyun Keum

Abstract:

This analysis investigates the distortion of flow measurement and the increase of cavitation along orifice flowmeter. The analysis using the numerical method (CFD) validated the distortion of flow measurement through the inlet velocity profile considering the convergence and grid dependency. Realizable k-e model was selected and y+ was about 50 in this numerical analysis. This analysis also estimated the vulnerability of cavitation effect due to inlet velocity profile. The investigation concludes that inclined inlet velocity profile could vary the pressure which was measured at pressure tab near pipe wall and it led to distort the pressure values ranged from -3.8% to 5.3% near the orifice plate and to make the increase of cavitation. The investigation recommends that the fully developed inlet velocity flow is beneficial to accurate flow measurement in orifice flowmeter.

Keywords: Orifice, k-e model, CFD

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Authors: Yu Zhang, Pedro Desouza

Abstract:

Since big data has become substantially more accessible and manageable due to the development of powerful tools for dealing with unstructured data, people are eager to mine information from social media resources that could not be handled in the past. Sentiment analysis, as a novel branch of text mining, has in the last decade become increasingly important in marketing analysis, customer risk prediction and other fields. Scientists and researchers have undertaken significant work in creating and improving their sentiment models. In this paper, we present a concept of selecting appropriate classifiers based on the features and qualities of data sources by comparing the performances of five classifiers with three popular social media data sources: Twitter, Amazon Customer Reviews, and Movie Reviews. We introduced a couple of innovative models that outperform traditional sentiment classifiers for these data sources, and provide insights on how to further improve the predictive power of sentiment analysis. The modeling and testing work was done in R and Greenplum in-database analytic tools.

Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, Social Media, Twitter, Amazon, Data Mining, Machine Learning, Text Mining.

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Authors: W. Schellong

Abstract:

Industry accounts for one-third of global final energy demand. Crossover technologies (e.g. motors, pumps, process heat, and air conditioning) play an important role in improving energy efficiency. These technologies are used in many applications independent of the production branch. Especially electrical power is used by drives, pumps, compressors, and lightning. The paper demonstrates the algorithm of the energy analysis by some selected case studies for typical industrial processes. The energy analysis represents an essential part of energy management systems (EMS). Generally, process control system (PCS) can support EMS. They provide information about the production process, and they organize the maintenance actions. Combining these tools into an integrated process allows the development of an energy critical equipment strategy. Thus, asset and energy management can use the same common data to improve the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Crossover technologies, data management, energy analysis, energy efficiency, process control.

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Authors: Betül Özgenç Kaya, Soner Kuslu, Sabri Çolak, Turan Çalban

Abstract:

Ulexite (Na2O.2CaO.5B2O3.16H2O) is boron mineral that is found in large quantities in the Turkey and world. In this study, the dissolution of this mineral in the disodium hydrogen phosphate solutions has been studied. Temperature, concentration, stirring speed, solid liquid ratio and particle size were selected as parameters. The experimental results were successfully correlated by linear regression using Statistica program. Dissolution curves were evaluated shrinking core models for solid-fluid systems. It was observed that increase in the reaction temperature and decrease in the solid/liquid ratio causes an increase the dissolution rate of ulexite. The activation energy was found to be 63.4 kJ/mol. The leaching of ulexite was controlled by chemical reaction.

Keywords: Disodium hydrogen phosphate, Leaching kinetics, Ulexite.

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Authors: Subha D. Puthankattil, Paul K. Joseph

Abstract:

Analyzing brain signals of the patients suffering from the state of depression may lead to interesting observations in the signal parameters that is quite different from a normal control. The present study adopts two different methods: Time frequency domain and nonlinear method for the analysis of EEG signals acquired from depression patients and age and sex matched normal controls. The time frequency domain analysis is realized using wavelet entropy and approximate entropy is employed for the nonlinear method of analysis. The ability of the signal processing technique and the nonlinear method in differentiating the physiological aspects of the brain state are revealed using Wavelet entropy and Approximate entropy.

Keywords: EEG, Depression, Wavelet entropy, Approximate entropy, Relative Wavelet energy, Multiresolution decomposition.

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Authors: S. Ghasemi, M. M. Kamelmanesh, A. Namayandeh, R. Biabanikhankahdani

Abstract:

The common bean is the most important grain legume for direct human consumption in the world and BCMV is one of the world's most serious bean diseases that can reduce yield and quality of harvested product. To determine the best tolerance index to BCMV and recognize tolerant genotypes, 2 experiments were conducted in field conditions. Twenty five common bean genotypes were sown in 2 separate RCB design with 3 replications under contamination and non-contamination conditions. On the basis of the results of indices correlations GMP, MP and HARM were determined as the most suitable tolerance indices. The results of principle components analysis indicated 2 first components totally explained 98.52% of variations among data. The first and second components were named potential yield and stress susceptible respectively. Based on the results of BCMV tolerance indices assessment and biplot analysis WA8563-4, WA8563-2 and Cardinal were the genotypes that exhibited potential seed yield under contamination and noncontamination conditions.

Keywords: Phaseolus vulgaris, BCMV, principle components analysis, bi-plot analysis, tolerance.

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Authors: Ismail Muratoglu, Ahmet Meyveci, Abdurrahman Tuncer, Erkan Demirci

Abstract:

This study is dedicated to the analysis of the problems of occupational safety in Turkey, Italy and Poland. The need analysis was applied to three different countries which are Turkey; 4, Poland; 1, Italy; 1 state. The number of the subjects is 891 in Turkey. The number of the subjects is 26 in Italy and the number of the subjects is 19 in Poland. The total number of samples of study is 936. Four different forms (Job Security Experts Form, Student Form, Teacher Form and Company Form) were applied. Results of experts of job security forms are rate of 7.1%. Then, the students’ forms are rate of 34.3%, teacher or instructor forms are rate of 9.9%. The last corporation forms are rate of 48.7%.

Keywords: Europe, need analysis, occupational safety, Turkey, vocational education.

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Authors: Marina Sartor Hoffer

Abstract:

The multicultural composition of today's societies poses new challenges to educational contexts. Schools are therefore called first to develop dialogic aptitudes and communicative skills adapted to the complex reality of post-modern societies. It is indispensable for educators and for young people to learn theoretical and practical tools during their scholastic path, in order to allow the knowledge of themselves and of the others with the aim of recognizing the value of the others regardless of their culture. Dialogic Skills help to understand and manage individual differences by allowing the solution of problems and preventing conflicts. The Educational Sector of Eric Berne’s Transactional Analysis offers a range of methods and techniques for this purpose. Educational Transactional Analysis is firmly anchored in the Personalist Philosophy and deserves to be promoted as a theoretical frame suitable to face the challenges of contemporary education. The goal of this paper is therefore to outline some conceptual and methodological signposts for the education to dialogue by drawing concepts and methodologies from educational transactional analysis.

Keywords: Dialogic process, education to dialogue, educational transactional analysis, personalism, the good of the relationship.

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Authors: Noor A. Auzairy, Rubi Ahmad, Catherine S.F. Ho, Ros Z. Z. Sapian

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This paper is to explore the relationship and the level of stock market integration of the Asian countries, primarily concentrating on Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea, with the world from January 1997 to December 2009. The degree of short-run and long-run stock market integration of those Asian countries are analyzed in order to determine the significance of series of regional and world financial crises, liberalization policies and other financial reforms in influencing the level of stock market integration. To test for cointegration, this paper applies coefficient correlation, univariate regression analyses, cointegration tests, and vector autoregressive models (VAR) by using the four Asian stock markets main indices and the MSCI World index. The empirical findings from this work reveal that there is no long-run stock market integration for the four countries and the world market. However, there is short run integration.

Keywords: Asia, integration, relationship, stock market.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis.

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Authors: Gee-Cheol Kim, Sang-Hoon Lee, Joo-Won Kang

Abstract:

In the stadium structure, the significant dynamic responses such as resonance or similar behavior can be occurred by spectator rhythmical activities. Thus, accurate analysis and precise investigation of stadium structure that is subjected to dynamic loads are required for practical design and serviceability check of stadium structures. Moreover, it is desirable to measure and analyze the dynamic loads of spectator activities because these dynamic loads can not be easily expressed in numerical formula. In this study, various dynamic loads induced by spectator movements are measured and analyzed. These dynamic loads induced by spectators movement of stadium structure can be classified into the impact load and the periodic load. These dynamic loads can be expressed as Fourier harmonic load. And, these dynamic loads could be applied for the accurate vibration analysis of a stadium structure.

Keywords: stadium structure, spectator rhythmical activities, vibration analysis.

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Authors: Erdal Akyol, Mutlu Alkan, Ali Aydin

Abstract:

Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria are well evaluated.

Keywords: GIS, spatial analysis, multi criteria decision analysis, geotechnics.

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Authors: Jianyin Lu, Masayoshi Seike, Wei Liu, Peihong Wu, Lihua Wang, Yihua Wu, Yasuhiro Naito, Hiromu Nakajima, Yasuhiro Kouchi

Abstract:

To extract the important physiological factors related to diabetes from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) by mathematical modeling, highly informative but convenient protocols are required. Current models require a large number of samples and extended period of testing, which is not practical for daily use. The purpose of this study is to make model assessments possible even from a reduced number of samples taken over a relatively short period. For this purpose, test values were extrapolated using a support vector machine. A good correlation was found between reference and extrapolated values in evaluated 741 OGTTs. This result indicates that a reduction in the number of clinical test is possible through a computational approach.

Keywords: SVM regression, OGTT, diabetes, mathematical model

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Authors: R. Haddad, K. Morris, V. Buchanan-Wollaston

Abstract:

Biochemical and molecular analysis of some antioxidant enzyme genes revealed different level of gene expression on oilseed (Brassica napus). For molecular and biochemical analysis, leaf tissues were harvested from plants at eight different developmental stages, from young to senescence. The levels of total protein and chlorophyll were increased during maturity stages of plant, while these were decreased during the last stages of plant growth. Structural analysis (nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequence, and phylogenic tree) of a complementary DNA revealed a high level of similarity for a family of Catalase genes. The expression of the gene encoded by different Catalase isoforms was assessed during different plant growth phase. No significant difference between samples was observed, when Catalase activity was statistically analyzed at different developmental stages. EST analysis exhibited different transcripts levels for a number of other relevant antioxidant genes (different isoforms of SOD and glutathione). The high level of transcription of these genes at senescence stages was indicated that these genes are senescenceinduced genes.

Keywords: Biochemical analysis, Oilseed, Expression pattern, Growth phases

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Authors: Pham Luu Trung Duong, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

To increase precision and reliability of automatic control systems, we have to take into account of random factors affecting the control system. Thus, operational matrix technique is used for statistical analysis of first order plus time delay system with uniform random parameter. Examples with deterministic and stochastic disturbance are considered to demonstrate the validity of the method. Comparison with Monte Carlo method is made to show the computational effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: First order plus dead-time, Operational matrix, Statistical analysis, Walsh function.

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Authors: Tsung-yin Lin, Yi-yu Lee, Ching-hua Hung

Abstract:

This study focuses on the stress analysis of Mandibular Advancement Devices (MADs), which are considered as a standard treatment of snoring that promoted by American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM). Snoring is the most significant feature of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB). SDB will lead to serious problems in human health. Oral appliances are ensured in therapeutic effect and compliance, especially the MADs. This paper proposes a new MAD design, and the finite element analysis (FEA) is introduced to precede the stress simulation for this MAD.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, mandibular advancement devices, mechanical stress, snoring.

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Authors: Astrid de Leeuw, Pierre Valois

Abstract:

Environmental education is the key to enhancing or changing students’ ways of thinking and acting in order to create an environmentally robust future for all. The present study investigates the beliefs of 812 primary school students, which merit consideration when developing educational interventions. Results of multiple regression analyses reveal that educational interventions should focus on promoting students’ feelings of control over pro-environmental behaviors (PEB). For example, schools could provide recycling bins on the premises. Furthermore, it is critical to develop positive attitudes in students by stressing the various benefits of PEB for keeping our planet clean and protecting wildlife. Unfortunately, our results indicate that students believe that PEB is boring and annoying. Suggestions are offered for making PEB more interesting and relevant. Further research is needed to test the effectiveness of interventions based on the present results.

Keywords: Pro-environmental behaviors, primary school students, theory of planned behavior, beliefs, educational interventions.

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Authors: M. Movahedi Rad

Abstract:

In this study, a general approach to the reliability based limit analysis of laterally loaded piles is presented. In engineering practice the uncertainties play a very important role. The aim of this study is to evaluate the lateral load capacity of free-head and fixed-head long pile when plastic limit analysis is considered. In addition to the plastic limit analysis to control the plastic behaviour of the structure, uncertain bound on the complementary strain energy of the residual forces is also applied. This bound has significant effect for the load parameter. The solution to reliability-based problems is obtained by a computer program which is governed by the reliability index calculation.

Keywords: Reliability, laterally loaded pile, residual strain energy, probability, limit analysis.

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Authors: Yuthapoom Thanakijborisut

Abstract:

This paper studies consumption insurance against the chronic illness in Thailand. The study estimates the impact of household consumption in the chronic illness on consumption growth. Chronic illness is the health care costs of a person or a household’s decision in treatment for the long term; the causes and effects of the household’s ability for smooth consumption. The chronic illnesses are measured in health status when at least one member within the household faces the chronic illness. The data used is from the Household Social Economic Panel Survey conducted during 2007 and 2012. The survey collected data from approximately 6,000 households from every province, both inside and outside municipal areas in Thailand. The study estimates the change in household consumption by using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. The result shows that the members within the household facing the chronic illness would reduce the consumption by around 4%. This case indicates that consumption insurance in Thailand is quite sufficient against chronic illness.

Keywords: Consumption insurance, chronic illness, health care, Thailand.

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