Search results for: Bounded parameters
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3791

Search results for: Bounded parameters

2981 Quality Classification and Monitoring Using Adaptive Metric Distance and Neural Networks: Application in Pickling Process

Authors: S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche, S. Ziani, J. Bast

Abstract:

Modern manufacturing facilities are large scale, highly complex, and operate with large number of variables under closed loop control. Early and accurate fault detection and diagnosis for these plants can minimise down time, increase the safety of plant operations, and reduce manufacturing costs. Fault detection and isolation is more complex particularly in the case of the faulty analog control systems. Analog control systems are not equipped with monitoring function where the process parameters are continually visualised. In this situation, It is very difficult to find the relationship between the fault importance and its consequences on the product failure. We consider in this paper an approach to fault detection and analysis of its effect on the production quality using an adaptive centring and scaling in the pickling process in cold rolling. The fault appeared on one of the power unit driving a rotary machine, this machine can not track a reference speed given by another machine. The length of metal loop is then in continuous oscillation, this affects the product quality. Using a computerised data acquisition system, the main machine parameters have been monitored. The fault has been detected and isolated on basis of analysis of monitored data. Normal and faulty situation have been obtained by an artificial neural network (ANN) model which is implemented to simulate the normal and faulty status of rotary machine. Correlation between the product quality defined by an index and the residual is used to quality classification.

Keywords: Modeling, fault detection and diagnosis, parameters estimation, neural networks, Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD), pickling process.

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2980 Comparison Physicochemical Properties of Hexane Extracted Aniseed Oil from Cold Press Extraction Residue and Cold Press Aniseed Oil

Authors: Derya Ören Duran, Şeyma Akalin Benderli

Abstract:

Cold press technique is a traditional method to obtain oil. The cold-pressing procedure involves neither heat nor chemical treatments; therefore, cold press technique has low oil yield. The cold pressed herbal material residue still contains some oil after cold press. In this study, the oil that is remained in the cold pressed aniseed was extracted with hexane; and it was analyzed to determine physicochemical properties and quality parameters. It was found that the aniseed after cold press process still contained 10% oil. The values of other analysis parameters were 2.1 mgKOH/g for free fatty acid (FFA) and 7.6 meq02/kg for peroxide. Cold pressed aniseed oil values were determined as 2.1 mgKOH/g for FFA and 4.5 meq02/kg for peroxide, respectively. In addition, fatty acid composition was analyzed, and it was found that both types of oil had same fatty acid compositions. The main fatty acids were oleic, linoleic and palmitic acids.

Keywords: Aniseed oil, cold press, extraction, residue.

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2979 Design of Gravity Dam by Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Farzin Salmasi

Abstract:

The design of a gravity dam is performed through an interactive process involving a preliminary layout of the structure followed by a stability and stress analysis. This study presents a method to define the optimal top width of gravity dam with genetic algorithm. To solve the optimization task (minimize the cost of the dam), an optimization routine based on genetic algorithms (GAs) was implemented into an Excel spreadsheet. It was found to perform well and GA parameters were optimized in a parametric study. Using the parameters found in the parametric study, the top width of gravity dam optimization was performed and compared to a gradient-based optimization method (classic method). The accuracy of the results was within close proximity. In optimum dam cross section, the ratio of is dam base to dam height is almost equal to 0.85, and ratio of dam top width to dam height is almost equal to 0.13. The computerized methodology may provide the help for computation of the optimal top width for a wide range of height of a gravity dam.

Keywords: Chromosomes, dam, genetic algorithm, globaloptimum, preliminary layout, stress analysis, theoretical profile.

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2978 Development of a Catchment Water Quality Model for Continuous Simulations of Pollutants Build-up and Wash-off

Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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2977 Computational Intelligence Hybrid Learning Approach to Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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2976 Line Heating Forming: Methodology and Application Using Kriging and Fifth Order Spline Formulations

Authors: Henri Champliaud, Zhengkun Feng, Ngan Van Lê, Javad Gholipour

Abstract:

In this article, a method is presented to effectively estimate the deformed shape of a thick plate due to line heating. The method uses a fifth order spline interpolation, with up to C3 continuity at specific points to compute the shape of the deformed geometry. First and second order derivatives over a surface are the resulting parameters of a given heating line on a plate. These parameters are determined through experiments and/or finite element simulations. Very accurate kriging models are fitted to real or virtual surfaces to build-up a database of maps. Maps of first and second order derivatives are then applied on numerical plate models to evaluate their evolving shapes through a sequence of heating lines. Adding an optimization process to this approach would allow determining the trajectories of heating lines needed to shape complex geometries, such as Francis turbine blades.

Keywords: Deformation, kriging, fifth order spline interpolation, first, second and third order derivatives, C3 continuity, line heating, plate forming, thermal forming.

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2975 Experimental Study on Slicing of Sapphire with Fixed Abrasive Diamond Wire Saw

Authors: Mengjun Zhang, Yuli Sun, Dunwen Zuo, Chunxiang Xie, Chunming Zhang

Abstract:

Experimental study on slicing of sapphire with fixed abrasive diamond wire saw was conducted in this paper. The process parameters were optimized through orthogonal experiment of three factors and four levels. The effects of wire speed, feed speed and tension pressure on the surface roughness were analyzed. Surface roughness in cutting direction and feed direction were both detected. The results show that feed speed plays the most significant role on the surface roughness of sliced sapphire followed by wire speed and tension pressure. The optimized process parameters are as follows: wire speed 1.9 m/s, feed speed 0.187 mm/min and tension pressure 0.18 MPa. In the end, the results were verified by analysis of variance.

Keywords: Fixed abrasive, diamond wire saw, slicing, sapphire, orthogonal experiment.

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2974 GSA-Based Design of Dual Proportional Integral Load Frequency Controllers for Nonlinear Hydrothermal Power System

Authors: M. Elsisi, M. Soliman, M. A. S. Aboelela, W. Mansour

Abstract:

This paper considers the design of Dual Proportional- Integral (DPI) Load Frequency Control (LFC), using gravitational search algorithm (GSA). The design is carried out for nonlinear hydrothermal power system where generation rate constraint (GRC) and governor dead band are considered. Furthermore, time delays imposed by governor-turbine, thermodynamic process, and communication channels are investigated. GSA is utilized to search for optimal controller parameters by minimizing a time-domain based objective function. GSA-based DPI has been compared to Ziegler- Nichols based PI, and Genetic Algorithm (GA) based PI controllers in order to demonstrate the superior efficiency of the proposed design. Simulation results are carried for a wide range of operating conditions and system parameters variations.

Keywords: Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA), Load Frequency Control (LFC), Dual Proportional-Integral (DPI) controller.

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2973 Estimating Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity from Soil Physical Properties using Neural Networks Model

Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi

Abstract:

Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.

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2972 Computational Fluid Dynamics Expert System using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Gonzalo Rubio, Eusebio Valero, Sven Lanzan

Abstract:

The design of a modern aircraft is based on three pillars: theoretical results, experimental test and computational simulations. As a results of this, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solvers are widely used in the aeronautical field. These solvers require the correct selection of many parameters in order to obtain successful results. Besides, the computational time spent in the simulation depends on the proper choice of these parameters. In this paper we create an expert system capable of making an accurate prediction of the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) solver. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to design the expert system. It is shown that the developed expert system is capable of making an accurate prediction the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a CFD solver.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Optimization

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2971 Mechanical and Thermal Properties Characterisation of Vinyl Ester Matrix Nanocomposites Based On Layered Silicate: Effect of Processing Parameters

Authors: A. I. Alateyah, H. N. Dhakal, Z. Y. Zhang

Abstract:

The mechanical properties including flexural and tensile of neat vinyl ester and polymer based on layered silicate nanocomposite materials of two different methodologies are discussed. Methodology 1 revealed that the addition of layered silicate into the polymer matrix increased the mechanical and thermal properties up to 1 wt.% clay loading. The incorporation of more clay resulted in decreasing the properties which was traced to the existence of aggregation layers. The aggregation layers imparted a negative impact on the overall mechanical and thermal properties. On the other hand, methodology 2 increased the mechanical and thermal properties up to 4 wt.% clay loading. The different amounts of improvements were assigned to the various preparation parameters. Wide Angle X-ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy and Transmission Electron Microscopy were utilized in order to characterize the interlamellar structure of nanocomposites.

Keywords: Vinyl ester, nanocomposites, layered silicate, mechanical properties, thermal analysis.

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2970 The Effect of Vibration on the Absorption of CO2 with Chemical Reaction in Aqueous Solution of Calcium Hydroxide

Authors: B. Sohbi, M. Emtir, M. Elgarni

Abstract:

An interesting method to produce calcium carbonate is based in a gas-liquid reaction between carbon dioxide and aqueous solutions of calcium hydroxide. The design parameters for gas-liquid phase are flow regime, individual mass transfer, gas-liquid specific interfacial area. Most studies on gas-liquid phase were devoted to the experimental determination of some of these parameters, and more specifically, of the mass transfer coefficient, kLa which depends fundamentally on the superficial gas velocity and on the physical properties of absorption phase. The principle investigation was directed to study the effect of the vibration on the mass transfer coefficient kLa in gas-liquid phase during absorption of CO2 in the in aqueous solution of calcium hydroxide. The vibration with a higher frequency increase the mass transfer coefficient kLa, but vibration with lower frequency didn-t improve it, the mass transfer coefficient kLa increase with increase the superficial gas velocity.

Keywords: Environment technology, mass transfer coefficient, absorption, CO2, calcium hydroxide.

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2969 Gold Nanoparticle: Synthesis, Characterization, Clinico-Pathological, Pathological, and Bio-Distribution Studies in Rabbits

Authors: M. M. Bashandy, A. R. Ahmed, M. El-Gaffary, Sahar S. Abd El-Rahman

Abstract:

This study evaluated the acute toxicity and tissue distribution of intravenously administered gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) in male rabbits. Rabbits were exposed to single dose of AuNPs (300 μg/ kg). Toxic effects were assessed via general behavior, hematological parameters, serum biochemical parameters, and histopathological examination of various rabbits’ organs. Inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used to determine gold concentrations in tissue samples collected at predetermined time intervals. After one week, AuNPs exerted no obvious acute toxicity in rabbits. However, inflammatory reactions were observed in liver, lungs and kidneys accompanied with mild absolute neutrophilia and significant monocytosis. The highest gold levels were found in the spleen and liver followed by lungs, and kidneys. These results indicated that AuNPs could be distributed extensively to various tissues in the body, but primarily in the spleen and liver.

Keywords: Gold nanoparticles, toxicity, pathology, hematology, liver function, kidney function.

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2968 Developing a Town Based Soil Database to Assess the Sensitive Zones in Nutrient Management

Authors: Sefa Aksu, Ünal Kızıl

Abstract:

For this study, a town based soil database created in Gümüsçay District of Biga Town, Çanakkale, Turkey. Crop and livestock production are major activities in the district. Nutrient management is mainly based on commercial fertilizer application ignoring the livestock manure. Within the boundaries of district, 122 soil sampling points determined over the satellite image. Soil samples collected from the determined points with the help of handheld Global Positioning System. Labeled samples were sent to a commercial laboratory to determine 11 soil parameters including salinity, pH, lime, organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, iron, manganese, copper and zinc. Based on the test results soil maps for mentioned parameters were developed using remote sensing, GIS, and geostatistical analysis. In this study we developed a GIS database that will be used for soil nutrient management. Methods were explained and soil maps and their interpretations were summarized in the study.

Keywords: Geostatistics, GIS, Nutrient Management, Soil Mapping.

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2967 Language Processing of Seniors with Alzheimer’s Disease: From the Perspective of Temporal Parameters

Authors: Lai Yi-Hsiu

Abstract:

The present paper aims to examine the language processing of Chinese-speaking seniors with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) from the perspective of temporal cues. Twenty healthy adults, 17 healthy seniors, and 13 seniors with AD in Taiwan participated in this study to tell stories based on two sets of pictures. Nine temporal cues were fetched and analyzed. Oral productions in Mandarin Chinese were compared and discussed to examine to what extent and in what way these three groups of participants performed with significant differences. Results indicated that the age effects were significant in filled pauses. The dementia effects were significant in mean duration of pauses, empty pauses, filled pauses, lexical pauses, normalized mean duration of filled pauses and lexical pauses. The findings reported in the current paper help characterize the nature of language processing in seniors with or without AD, and contribute to the interactions between the AD neural mechanism and their temporal parameters.

Keywords: Language processing, Alzheimer’s disease, Mandarin Chinese, temporal cues.

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2966 Probabilistic Characteristics of older PR Frames in the Mid-America Earthquake Region

Authors: Do-Hwan Kim, Roberto Leon

Abstract:

Probabilistic characteristics of seismic responses of the Partially Restrained connection rotation (PRCR) and panel zone deformation (PZD) installed in older steel moment frames were investigated in accordance with statistical inference in decision-making process. The 4, 6 and 8 story older steel moment frames with clip angle and T-stub connections were designed and analyzed using 2%/50yrs ground motions in four cities of the Mid-America earthquake region. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of PRCR and PZD were determined by the goodness-of-fit tests based on probabilistic parameters measured from the results of the nonlinear time-history analyses. The obtained probabilistic parameters and distributions can be used to find out what performance level mainly PR connections and panel zones satisfy and how many PR connections and panel zones experience a serious damage under the Mid-America ground motions.

Keywords: Mid-America earthquake, Panel zone, PR connection, Probabilistic characteristics, seismic performance

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2965 Evaluation of Bearing Capacity of Vertically Loaded Strip Piled-Raft Embedded in Soft Clay

Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Mohammad Hosseinzade

Abstract:

Settlement and bearing capacity of a piled raft are the two important issues for the foundations of structures built on coastal areas from the geotechnical engineering point of view. Strip piled raft as a load carrying system can reduce the possible extensive consolidation settlements and improve bearing capacity of structures in soft ground. The aim of this research was to evaluate the efficiency of strip piled raft embedded in soft clay. The efficiency of bearing capacity of strip piled raft foundation has been evaluated numerically in two cases; in the first case, the cap is placed directly on the ground surface and in the second, the cap is placed above the ground. Regarding to the fact that the geotechnical parameters of the soft clay are considered at low level, low bearing capacity is expected. The length, diameter and axe-to-axe distance of piles were the parameters which varied in this study to find out how they affected the bearing capacity. Results indicate that increasing the length and the diameter of the piles increase the bearing capacity.

Keywords: Soft clay, Strip piled raft, Bearing capacity, Settlement.

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2964 Use of Multiple Linear Regressions to Evaluate the Influence of O3 and PM10 on Biological Pollutants

Authors: S. I. V. Sousa, F.G. Martins, M. C. Pereira, M. C. M. Alvim-Ferraz, H. Ribeiro, M. Oliveira, I. Abreu

Abstract:

Exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to a number of health outcomes, starting from modest transient changes in the respiratory tract and impaired pulmonary function, continuing to restrict activity/reduce performance and to the increase emergency rooms visits, hospital admissions or mortality. The increase of allergenic symptoms has been associated with air contaminants such as ozone, particulate matter, fungal spores and pollen. Considering the potential relevance of crossed effects of nonbiological pollutants and airborne pollens and fungal spores on allergy worsening, the aim of this work was to evaluate the influence of non-biological pollutants (O3 and PM10) and meteorological parameters on the concentrations of pollen and fungal spores using multiple linear regressions. The data considered in this study were collected in Oporto which is the second largest Portuguese city, located in the North. Daily mean of O3, PM10, pollen and fungal spore concentrations, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind velocity, pollen and fungal spore concentrations, for 2003, 2004 and 2005 were considered. Results showed that the 90th percentile of the adjusted coefficient of determination, P90 (R2aj), of the multiple regressions varied from 0.613 to 0.916 for pollen and from 0.275 to 0.512 for fungal spores. O3 and PM10 showed to have some influence on the biological pollutants. Among the meteorological parameters analysed, temperature was the one that most influenced the pollen and fungal spores airborne concentrations. Relative humidity also showed to have some influence on the fungal spore dispersion. Nevertheless, the models for each pollen and fungal spore were different depending on the analysed period, which means that the correlations identified as statistically significant can not be, even so, consistent enough.

Keywords: Air pollutants, meteorological parameters, biologicalpollutants, multiple linear correlations.

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2963 Quantitative Determination of Trace Elements in Some Oriental Herb Products

Authors: Nguyen Thi Kim Dzung, Pham Ngoc Khai, Rainer Ludwig

Abstract:

The quantitative determination of several trace elements (Cr, As, Se, Cd, Hg, Pb) existing as inorganic impurities in some oriental herb-products such as Lingzhi Mushroom capsules, Philamin powder, etc using ICP-MS has been studied. Various instrumental parameters such as power, gas flow rate, sample depth, as well as the concentration of nitric acid and thick background due to high concentration of possible interferences on the determination of these above-mentioned elements was investigated and the optimum working conditions of the sample measurement on ICP-MS (Agilent-7500a) were reported. Appropriate isotope internal standards were also used to improve the accuracy of mercury determination. Optimal parameters for sampling digestion were also investigated. The recovery of analytical procedure was examined by using a Certified Reference Material (IAEA-CRM 359). The recommended procedure was then applied for the quantitative determination of Cr, As, Se, Cd, Hg, Pb in Lingzhi Mushroom capsule, and Philamine powder samples. The reproducibility of sample measurement (average value between 94 and 102%) and the uncertainty of analytical data (less than 20%) are acceptable.

Keywords: Oriental herbal product, trace elements, ICP-MS, biochemistry, medical chemistry.

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2962 Depletion Layer Parameters of Al-MoO3-P-CdTe-Al MOS Structures

Authors: A. C. Sarmah

Abstract:

The Al-MoO3-P-CdTe-Al MOS sandwich structures were fabricated by vacuum deposition method on cleaned glass substrates. Capacitance versus voltage measurements were performed at different frequencies and sweep rates of applied voltages for oxide and semiconductor films of different thicknesses. In the negative voltage region of the C-V curve a high differential capacitance of the semiconductor was observed and at high frequencies (<10 kHz) the transition from accumulation to depletion and further to deep depletion was observed as the voltage was swept from negative to positive. A study have been undertaken to determine the value of acceptor density and some depletion layer parameters such as depletion layer capacitance, depletion width, impurity concentration, flat band voltage, Debye length, flat band capacitance, diffusion or built-in-potential, space charge per unit area etc. These were determined from C-V measurements for different oxide and semiconductor thicknesses.

Keywords: Debye length, Depletion width, flat band capacitance, impurity concentration.

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2961 Bias Optimization of Mach-Zehnder Modulator Considering RF Gain on OFDM Radio-Over-Fiber System

Authors: Ghazi Al Sukkar, Yazid Khattabi, Shifen Zhong

Abstract:

Most of the recent wireless LANs, broadband access networks, and digital broadcasting use Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing techniques. In addition, the increasing demand of Data and Internet makes fiber optics an important technology, as fiber optics has many characteristics that make it the best solution for transferring huge frames of Data from a point to another. Radio over fiber is the place where high quality RF is converted to optical signals over single mode fiber. Optimum values for the bias level and the switching voltage for Mach-Zehnder modulator are important for the performance of radio over fiber links. In this paper, we propose a method to optimize the two parameters simultaneously; the bias and the switching voltage point of the external modulator of a radio over fiber system considering RF gain. Simulation results show the optimum gain value under these two parameters.

Keywords: OFDM, Mach Zehnder Bias Voltage, switching voltage, radio-over-fiber, RF gain.

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2960 Prediction of the Thermal Parameters of a High-Temperature Metallurgical Reactor Using Inverse Heat Transfer

Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

Abstract:

This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: Inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness.

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2959 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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2958 Modelling Conditional Volatility of Saving Rate by a Time-Varying Parameter Model

Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

Abstract:

The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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2957 Magnetohydrodynamics Boundary Layer Flows over a Stretching Surface with Radiation Effect and Embedded in Porous Medium

Authors: Siti Khuzaimah Soid, Zanariah Mohd Yusof, Ahmad Sukri Abd Aziz, Seripah Awang Kechil

Abstract:

A steady two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics flow and heat transfer over a stretching vertical sheet influenced by radiation and porosity is studied. The governing boundary layer equations of partial differential equations are reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations using similarity transformation. The system is solved numerically by using a finite difference scheme known as the Keller-box method for some values of parameters, namely the radiation parameter N, magnetic parameter M, buoyancy parameter l , Prandtl number Pr and permeability parameter K. The effects of the parameters on the heat transfer characteristics are analyzed and discussed. It is found that both the skin friction coefficient and the local Nusselt number decrease as the magnetic parameter M and permeability parameter K increase. Heat transfer rate at the surface decreases as the radiation parameter increases.

Keywords: Keller-box, MHD boundary layer flow, permeability stretching.

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2956 Estimating the Effect of Fluid in Pressing Process

Authors: A. Movaghar, R. A. Mahdavinejad

Abstract:

To analyze the effect of various parameters of fluid on the material properties such as surface and depth defects and/or cracks, it is possible to determine the affection of pressure field on these specifications. Stress tensor analysis is also able to determine the points in which the probability of defection creation is more. Besides, from pressure field, it is possible to analyze the affection of various fluid specifications such as viscosity and density on defect created in the material. In this research, the concerned boundary conditions are analyzed first. Then the solution network and stencil used are mentioned. With the determination of relevant equation on the fluid flow between notch and matrix and their discretion according to the governed boundary conditions, these equations can be solved. Finally, with the variation creations on fluid parameters such as density and viscosity, the affection of these variations can be determined on pressure field. In this direction, the flowchart and solution algorithm with their results as vortex and current function contours for two conditions with most applications in pressing process are introduced and discussed.

Keywords: Pressing, notch, matrix, flow function, vortex.

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2955 Large Vibration Amplitudes of Circular Functionally Graded Thin Plates Resting on Winkler Elastic Foundations

Authors: El Kaak, Rachid, El Bikri, Khalid, Benamar, Rhali

Abstract:

This paper describes a study of geometrically nonlinear free vibration of thin circular functionally graded (CFGP) plates resting on Winkler elastic foundations. The material properties of the functionally graded composites examined here are assumed to be graded smoothly and continuously through the direction of the plate thickness according to a power law and are estimated using the rule of mixture. The theoretical model is based on the classical Plate theory and the Von-Kármán geometrical nonlinearity assumptions. An homogenization procedure (HP) is developed to reduce the problem considered here to that of isotropic homogeneous circular plates resting on Winkler foundation. Hamilton-s principle is applied and a multimode approach is derived to calculate the fundamental nonlinear frequency parameters which are found to be in a good agreement with the published results. On the other hand, the influence of the foundation parameters on the nonlinear fundamental frequency has also been analysed.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, nonlinear vibrations, Winkler foundation.

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2954 Measurement and Analysis of Temperature Effects on Box Girders of Continuous Rigid Frame Bridges

Authors: Bugao Wang, Weifeng Wang, Xianwei Zeng

Abstract:

Researches on the general rules of temperature field changing and their effects on the bridge in construction are necessary. This paper investigated the rules of temperature field changing and its effects on bridge using onsite measurement and computational analysis. Guanyinsha Bridge was used as a case study in this research. The temperature field was simulated in analyses. The effects of certain boundary conditions such as sun radiance, wind speed, and model parameters such as heat factor and specific heat on temperature field are investigated. Recommended values for these parameters are proposed. The simulated temperature field matches the measured observations with high accuracy. At the same time, the stresses and deflections of the bridge computed with the simulated temperature field matches measured values too. As a conclusion, the temperature effect analysis of reinforced concrete box girder can be conducted directly based on the reliable weather data of the concerned area.

Keywords: continuous rigid frame bridge, temperature effectanalysis, temperature field, temperature field simulation

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2953 Non-Sensitive Solutions in Multi-Objective Optimization of a Solar Photovoltaic/Thermal(PV/T) Air Collector

Authors: F. Sarhaddi, S. Farahat, M .A. Alavi, F. Sobhnamayan

Abstract:

In this paper, an attempt has been made to obtain nonsensitive solutions in the multi-objective optimization of a photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) air collector. The selected objective functions are overall energy efficiency and exergy efficiency. Improved thermal, electrical and exergy models are used to calculate the thermal and electrical parameters, overall energy efficiency, exergy components and exergy efficiency of a typical PV/T air collector. A computer simulation program is also developed. The results of numerical simulation are in good agreement with the experimental measurements noted in the previous literature. Finally, multi-objective optimization has been carried out under given climatic, operating and design parameters. The optimized ranges of inlet air velocity, duct depth and the objective functions in optimal Pareto front have been obtained. Furthermore, non-sensitive solutions from energy or exergy point of view in the results of multi-objective optimization have been shown.

Keywords: Solar photovoltaic thermal (PV/T) air collector, Overall energy efficiency, Exergy efficiency, Multi-objectiveoptimization, Sensitivity analysis.

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2952 Amelioration of Cardiac Arrythmias Classification Performance Using Artificial Neural Network, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy and Fuzzy Inference Systems Classifiers

Authors: Alexandre Boum, Salomon Madinatou

Abstract:

This paper aims at bringing a scientific contribution to the cardiac arrhythmia biomedical diagnosis systems; more precisely to the study of the amelioration of cardiac arrhythmia classification performance using artificial neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy inference systems classifiers. The purpose of this amelioration is to enable cardiologists to make reliable diagnosis through automatic cardiac arrhythmia analyzes and classifications based on high confidence classifiers. In this study, six classes of the most commonly encountered arrhythmias are considered: the Right Bundle Branch Block, the Left Bundle Branch Block, the Ventricular Extrasystole, the Auricular Extrasystole, the Atrial Fibrillation and the Normal Cardiac rate beat. From the electrocardiogram (ECG) extracted parameters, we constructed a matrix (360x360) serving as an input data sample for the classifiers based on neural networks and a matrix (1x6) for the classifier based on fuzzy logic. By varying three parameters (the quality of the neural network learning, the data size and the quality of the input parameters) the automatic classification permitted us to obtain the following performances: in terms of correct classification rate, 83.6% was obtained using the fuzzy logic based classifier, 99.7% using the neural network based classifier and 99.8% for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy based classifier. These results are based on signals containing at least 360 cardiac cycles. Based on the comparative analysis of the aforementioned three arrhythmia classifiers, the classifiers based on neural networks exhibit a better performance.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy, artificial neural network, cardiac arrythmias, fuzzy inference systems.

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