Search results for: statistical correlations

Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

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recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: Matta S. N. S. Kiran, Manikantadhar Maheswaram, Akshat Upadhyay, Rohit Mishra, Bhagat Singh

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A bearing is a very common and useful component of mechanical systems in order to transfer power from one end to another. Therefore, to ensure the accountability and robustness of the rotating mechanical systems, the bearing part's health condition must be checked at regular intervals, also known as preventive maintenance. This condition may lead to unnecessary higher maintenance costs and later result in higher production costs. These costs can be minimized by diagnosing the faulty bearing in its incipient stage. This paper describes an approach to detect rolling bearing defects based on Empirical Mode Decomposition. The novelty of the proposed methodology is validated experimentally using Case Western Reserve University bearing's data sets. The selected data sets comprise the two vibration signals, i.e., inner race and outer, for healthy and faulty conditions.

Keywords: Ball bearing, denoising, signal processing, statistical indicators.

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Authors: Mustafa Altin, Sakir Tasdemir, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Sevda Altin

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In this study, an experiment was executed related to the strength of wooden materials which have been commonly used both in the past and present against pressure and whether fire retardant materials used against fire have any effects or not. Totally 81 samples which included 3 different wood species, 3 different sizes, 2 different fire retardants and 2 unprocessed samples were prepared. Compressive pressure tests were applied to the prepared samples, their variance analyses were executed in accordance with the obtained results and it was aimed to determine the most convenient wooden materials and fire-retardant coating material. It was also determined that the species of wood and the species of coating caused the decrease and/or increase in the resistance against pressure.

Keywords: Resistance of wood against pressure, species of wood, variance analysis, wood coating, wood fire safety.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Mohd Iqbal Ridwan, Kerk Lee Yen, Aminuddin Musa, Bahisham Yunus

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Protective relays are components of a protection system in a power system domain that provides decision making element for correct protection and fault clearing operations. Failure of the protection devices may reduce the integrity and reliability of the power system protection that will impact the overall performance of the power system. Hence it is imperative for power utilities to assess the reliability of protective relays to assure it will perform its intended function without failure. This paper will discuss the application of reliability analysis using statistical method called Life Data Analysis in Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), a government linked power utility company in Malaysia, namely Transmission Division, to assess and evaluate the reliability of numerical overcurrent protective relays from two different manufacturers.

Keywords: Life data analysis, Protective relays, Reliability, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

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Motivated by the recent work of Herbert, Hayen, Macaskill and Walter [Interval estimation for the difference of two independent variances. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 40: 744-758, 2011.], we investigate, in this paper, new confidence intervals for the difference between two normal population variances based on the generalized confidence interval of Weerahandi [Generalized Confidence Intervals. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423): 899-905, 1993.] and the closed form method of variance estimation of Zou, Huo and Taleban [Simple confidence intervals for lognormal means and their differences with environmental applications. Environmetrics 20: 172-180, 2009]. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our proposed confidence intervals give a better coverage probability than that of the existing confidence interval. Also two new confidence intervals perform similarly based on their coverage probabilities and their average length widths.

Keywords: Confidence interval, generalized confidence interval, the closed form method of variance estimation, variance.

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos

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Statistical analysis of electrophysiological recordings obtained under, e.g. tactile, stimulation frequently suggests participation in the network dynamics of experimentally unobserved “hidden" neurons. Such interneurons making synapses to experimentally recorded neurons may strongly alter their dynamical responses to the stimuli. We propose a mathematical method that formalizes this possibility and provides an algorithm for inferring on the presence and dynamics of hidden neurons based on fitting of the experimental data to spike trains generated by the network model. The model makes use of Integrate and Fire neurons “chemically" coupled through exponentially decaying synaptic currents. We test the method on simulated data and also provide an example of its application to the experimental recording from the Dorsal Column Nuclei neurons of the rat under tactile stimulation of a hind limb.

Keywords: Integrate and fire neuron, neural network models, spike trains.

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Authors: Asmaa M. Hussein, Amr Wassal, Ahmed Farouk Al-Sadek, A. F. Abd El-Rahman

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In this study, a multivariate analysis of potato spectroscopic data was presented to detect the presence of brown rot disease or not. Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (1,350-2,500 nm) combined with multivariate analysis was used as a rapid, non-destructive technique for the detection of brown rot disease in potatoes. Spectral measurements were performed in 565 samples, which were chosen randomly at the infection place in the potato slice. In this study, 254 infected and 311 uninfected (brown rot-free) samples were analyzed using different advanced statistical analysis techniques. The discrimination performance of different multivariate analysis techniques, including classification, pre-processing, and dimension reduction, were compared. Applying a random forest algorithm classifier with different pre-processing techniques to raw spectra had the best performance as the total classification accuracy of 98.7% was achieved in discriminating infected potatoes from control.

Keywords: Brown rot disease, NIR spectroscopy, potato, random forest.

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Authors: Chaitanya Chawla, Divya Panwar, Gurneesh Singh Anand, M. P. S Bhatia

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This paper presents a deep-learning mechanism for classifying computer generated images and photographic images. The proposed method accounts for a convolutional layer capable of automatically learning correlation between neighbouring pixels. In the current form, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) will learn features based on an image's content instead of the structural features of the image. The layer is particularly designed to subdue an image's content and robustly learn the sensor pattern noise features (usually inherited from image processing in a camera) as well as the statistical properties of images. The paper was assessed on latest natural and computer generated images, and it was concluded that it performs better than the current state of the art methods.

Keywords: Image forensics, computer graphics, classification, deep learning, convolutional neural networks.

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Authors: H.B. Nguendo Yongsi

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An epidemiological cross sectional study was undertaken in Yaoundé in 2002 and updated in 2005. Focused on health within the city, the objectives were to measure diarrheal prevalence and to identify the risk factors associated with them. Results of microbiological examinations have revealed an urban average prevalence rate of 14.5%. Access to basic services in the living environment appears to be an important risk factor for diarrheas. Statistical and spatial analyses conducted have revealed that prevalence of diarrheal diseases vary among the two main types of settlement (informal and planned). More importantly, this study shows that, diarrhea prevalence rates (notably bacterial and parasitic diarrheas) vary according to the sub- category of settlements. The study draws a number of theoretical and policy implications for researchers and policy decision makers.

Keywords: Cameroon, diarrheal diseases, health risk factor, planned and spontaneous settlement, urban policy, urbanization.

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Authors: Libor Zachoval, Daire O Broin, Oisin Cawley

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E-learning platforms, such as Blackboard have two major shortcomings: limited data capture as a result of the limitations of SCORM (Shareable Content Object Reference Model), and lack of incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms which could lead to better course adaptations. With the recent development of Experience Application Programming Interface (xAPI), a large amount of additional types of data can be captured and that opens a window of possibilities from which online education can benefit. In a corporate setting, where companies invest billions on the learning and development of their employees, some learner behaviours can be troublesome for they can hinder the knowledge development of a learner. Behaviours that hinder the knowledge development also raise ambiguity about learner’s knowledge mastery, specifically those related to gaming the system. Furthermore, a company receives little benefit from their investment if employees are passing courses without possessing the required knowledge and potential compliance risks may arise. Using xAPI and rules derived from a state-of-the-art review, we identified three learner behaviours, primarily related to guessing, in a corporate compliance course. The identified behaviours are: trying each option for a question, specifically for multiple-choice questions; selecting a single option for all the questions on the test; and continuously repeating tests upon failing as opposed to going over the learning material. These behaviours were detected on learners who repeated the test at least 4 times before passing the course. These findings suggest that gauging the mastery of a learner from multiple-choice questions test scores alone is a naive approach. Thus, next steps will consider the incorporation of additional data points, knowledge estimation models to model knowledge mastery of a learner more accurately, and analysis of the data for correlations between knowledge development and identified learner behaviours. Additional work could explore how learner behaviours could be utilised to make changes to a course. For example, course content may require modifications (certain sections of learning material may be shown to not be helpful to many learners to master the learning outcomes aimed at) or course design (such as the type and duration of feedback).

Keywords: Compliance Course, Corporate Training, Learner Behaviours, xAPI.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, A. Hamid Khajavi

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In this paper, a set of experimental data has been used to assess the influence of abrasive water jet (AWJ) process parameters in cutting 6063-T6 aluminum alloy. The process variables considered here include nozzle diameter, jet traverse rate, jet pressure and abrasive flow rate. The effects of these input parameters are studied on depth of cut (h); one of most important characteristics of AWJ. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. In the next stage, the proposed model is embedded into a Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm to optimize the AWJ process parameters. The objective is to determine a suitable set of process parameters that can produce a desired depth of cut, considering the ranges of the process parameters. Computational results prove the effectiveness of the proposed model and optimization procedure.

Keywords: AWJ machining, Mathematical modeling, Simulated Annealing, Optimization

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Authors: Indradip Banerjee, Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

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‘Steganalysis’ is one of the challenging and attractive interests for the researchers with the development of information hiding techniques. It is the procedure to detect the hidden information from the stego created by known steganographic algorithm. In this paper, a novel feature based image steganalysis technique is proposed. Various statistical moments have been used along with some similarity metric. The proposed steganalysis technique has been designed based on transformation in four wavelet domains, which include Haar, Daubechies, Symlets and Biorthogonal. Each domain is being subjected to various classifiers, namely K-nearest-neighbor, K* Classifier, Locally weighted learning, Naive Bayes classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees and Support vector machines. The experiments are performed on a large set of pictures which are available freely in image database. The system also predicts the different message length definitions.

Keywords: Steganalysis, Moments, Wavelet Domain, KNN, K*, LWL, Naive Bayes Classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees, SVM.

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Authors: L. C. H. Jayarathna, W. M. N. Fernando

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Academics and researchers are interested in the effects of social media on college students, with a specific focus on the most popular social media website; Facebook. Previous studied have found contradictory result on the relationship between Facebook usage and the student engagement with positive, detrimental and no significant relationships. However, these studies were limited to western higher education system. This paper fills a gap in the literature by using a sample (300) of Sri Lankan management undergraduates to examine the relationship between Facebook usage and student engagement. Student engagement was measured 35 item scale based on the National Survey of Student Engagement and Facebook usage by Facebook intensity scale. Descriptive statistics, path analysis and structural equation modeling were applied as statistical tools and techniques. Results indicate that student engagement scale was significantly negatively related with the Facebook usage with the influence from student engagement on Facebook usage.

Keywords: Facebook Intensity, Social Networking Sites, Student Engagement.

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Authors: M. Siosemarde, F. Kave, E. Pazira, H. Sedghi, S. J. Ghaderi

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Researchers have long had trouble in measurement of Exchangeable Sodium Ratio (ESR) at salt-affected soils. this parameter are often determined using laborious and time consuming laboratory tests, but it may be more appropriate and economical to develop a method which uses a more simple soil salinity index. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between exchangeable sodium ratio (ESR) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) in some salt-affected soils of Khuzestan plain. To this purpose, two experimental areas (S1, S2) of Khuzestan province-IRAN were selected and four treatments with three replications by series of double rings were applied. The treatments were included 25cm, 50cm, 75cm and 100cm water application. The statistical results of the study indicated that in order to predict soil ESR based on soil SAR the linear regression model ESR=0.2048+0.0066 SAR (R2=0.53) & ESR=0.0564+0.0171 SAR (R2=0.76) can be recommended in Pilot S1 and S2 respectively.

Keywords: exchangeable sodium ratio, Khuzestan plain, saltaffectedsoils and sodium adsorption ratio.

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Authors: Takayuki Konishi, Kakeru Yazawa, Mariko Kondo

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This study examines developmental change in the production of epenthetic vowels by Japanese learners of English in relation to acquisition of L2 English speech rhythm. Seventy-two Japanese learners of English in the J-AESOP corpus were divided into lower- and higher-level learners according to their proficiency score and the frequency of vowel epenthesis. Three learners were excluded because no vowel epenthesis was observed in their utterances. The analysis of their read English speech data showed no statistical difference between lower- and higher-level learners, implying the absence of any developmental change in durations of epenthetic vowels. This result, together with the findings of previous studies, will be discussed in relation to the transfer of L1 phonology and manifestation of L2 English rhythm.

Keywords: Vowel epenthesis, Japanese learners of English, L2 speech corpus, speech rhythm.

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Authors: Rasheed Gbenga Jimoh, Akinbowale Nathaniel Babatunde

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The use of Automated Teller Machine (ATM) has become an important tool among commercial banks, customers of banks have come to depend on and trust the ATM conveniently meet their banking needs. Although the overwhelming advantages of ATM cannot be over-emphasized, its alarming fraud rate has become a bottleneck in it’s full adoption in Nigeria. This study examined the menace of ATM in the society another cost of running ATM services by banks in the country. The researcher developed a prototype of an enhanced Automated Teller Machine Authentication using Short Message Service (SMS) Verification. The developed prototype was tested by Ten (10) respondents who are users of ATM cards in the country and the data collected was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Based on the results of the analysis, it is being envisaged that the developed prototype will go a long way in reducing the alarming rate of ATM fraud in Nigeria.

Keywords: ATM, ATM Fraud, E-banking, Prototyping.

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Authors: Walid Cherif

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Data mining has, over recent years, seen big advances because of the spread of internet, which generates everyday a tremendous volume of data, and also the immense advances in technologies which facilitate the analysis of these data. In particular, classification techniques are a subdomain of Data Mining which determines in which group each data instance is related within a given dataset. It is used to classify data into different classes according to desired criteria. Generally, a classification technique is either statistical or machine learning. Each type of these techniques has its own limits. Nowadays, current data are becoming increasingly heterogeneous; consequently, current classification techniques are encountering many difficulties. This paper defines new measure functions to quantify the resemblance between instances and then combines them in a new approach which is different from actual algorithms by its reliability computations. Results of the proposed approach exceeded most common classification techniques with an f-measure exceeding 97% on the IRIS Dataset.

Keywords: Data mining, knowledge discovery, machine learning, similarity measurement, supervised classification.

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Authors: Hsiao-Ming Chang, Jui-Liang Hsu

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the cognitive and travel experience the situation of the tourist attraction of the sport tourism in Penghu. This study used a questionnaires, the main island of Taiwan to Penghu in the way of marine sports tourists adopted the designated convenience sampling method, a total of 1447 valid questionnaires. After statistical analysis, this study found that: 1. Tourists to Penghu sports tourism attraction cognitive as “good air quality, suitable for water activities". 2. Tourists in Penghu's tourism experience, “Let me taste the delicious specialties and snacks". 3. The attraction of the sport tourism, travel experience and perceived value are correlated, and both the perceived value with a high degree of predictive ability. Based on the findings of this study not only for Penghu's tourism industry with the unit in charge of the proposed operating and suggestions for future research to other researchers.

Keywords: Sport tourism, travel experience, perceived value, sport attraction.

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Authors: Masoud Nasri, Ali Gholami, Ali Najafi

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In recent years, most of the regions in the world are exposed to degradation and erosion caused by increasing population and over use of land resources. The understanding of the most important factors on soil erosion and sediment yield are the main keys for decision making and planning. In this study, the sediment yield and soil erosion were estimated and the priority of different soil erosion factors used in the MPSIAC method of soil erosion estimation is evaluated in AliAbad watershed in southwest of Isfahan Province, Iran. Different information layers of the parameters were created using a GIS technique. Then, a multivariate procedure was applied to estimate sediment yield and to find the most important factors of soil erosion in the model. The results showed that land use, geology, land and soil cover are the most important factors describing the soil erosion estimated by MPSIAC model.

Keywords: land degradation, Soil erosion, Sediment yield, Aliabad, GIS technique, Land use.

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Authors: Narasimhaiah Gorla, Annibal Scavarda

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Nowadays, where most of the leading economies are service oriented and e-business is being widely used for their management, supply chain management has become one of the most studied and practiced fields. Quality has an important role on today-s business processes, so it is important to understand the impact of IT service quality on the performance of supply chains. This paper will start by analyzing the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model and each of its five activities: Plan, Source, Make, Delivery, and Return. This article proposes a framework for analyzing Effect of IT Service Quality on Supply Chain Performance. Using the proposed framework, hypotheses are framed for the direct effect of IT service quality on Supply Chain Performance and its indirect effect through effective Supply Chain Management. The framework will be validated empirically based on the surveys of executives of various organizations and statistical analyses of the data collected.

Keywords: IT service quality, SCOR model, Supply Chain Management, Supply Chain Performance

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Authors: Farhad Sedaghati, Shahram Pezeshk

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Regional variations in strong ground motions for the Iranian Plateau have been investigated by using a simple statistical method called Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). In this respect, a large database consisting of 1157 records occurring within the Iranian Plateau with moment magnitudes of greater than or equal to 5 and Joyner-Boore distances up to 200 km has been considered. Geometric averages of horizontal peak ground accelerations (PGA) as well as 5% damped linear elastic response spectral accelerations (SA) at periods of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 sec are used as strong motion parameters. The initial database is divided into two different datasets, for Northern Iran (NI) and Central and Southern Iran (CSI). The comparison between strong ground motions of these two regions reveals that there is no evidence for significant differences; therefore, data from these two regions may be combined to estimate the unknown coefficients of attenuation relationships.

Keywords: ANOVA, attenuation relationships, Iranian Plateau, PGA, regional variation, SA, strong ground motion.

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Authors: P. Grasgruber, J. Cacek, S. Hřebíčková

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The purpose of this study was to test the reliability of various standards that assess the quality of proteins via the “amino-acid score” and serve as a nutritional guideline for both children and adults. The height of young men in 42 European countries, Australia, New Zealand and USA was compared with the average consumption of food (after FAOSTAT, 2009) and a subsequent statistical analysis identified types of food with the most pronounced effect on physical growth. The results show that milk products and pork meat are by far the most significant nutritional factors in this regard. Cereals, vegetables and especially wheat played a strongly negative role. The results generally agreed best with the amino-acid score of proteins according to the standard of FAO 1985. In our opinion, the new standard of FAO 2007 underestimates the importance of tryptophan, which should provoke a debate about new modifications of the FAO guidelines.

Keywords: Protein quality, amino-acid score, physical growth, male height.

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Authors: Lucie Côté, Martin Lauzier, Guy Beauchamp, France Guertin

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Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Keywords: Acceptance, coping strategies, measurement instrument, questionnaire, stress, validation process.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

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Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack.

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Authors: Anat Thapinta

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This research aimed to study on the efficiency of wastewater treatment by comparing the different aeration times of surface aerators in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. In doing so, the operation of surface aerators was divided into 2 groups which included the groups of 8 hours (8-0/opened-closed) and 4 hours (2-2/opened-closed) of aeration time per day. As a result of the study, it was found that the efficiency of wastewater treatment in the forms of DO, BOD, turbidity and NO₂^- by 8 hours (8-0/opened-closed) and 4 hours (2-2/opened-closed) of aeration time per day of surface aerators was not statistically different [Sig. = .644, .488, .716 and .054 > α (.05)] while the efficiency in the forms of NO₃^- and P was significantly different at the statistical level of .01 [Sig. = .001 and .000 < α (.01)].

Keywords: Aeration time, Surface aerator, Wastewater treatment.

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Authors: Mohammad H. Almomani, Rosmanjawati Abdul Rahman

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Statistical selection procedures are used to select the best simulated system from a finite set of alternatives. In this paper, we present a procedure that can be used to select the best system when the number of alternatives is large. The proposed procedure consists a combination between Ranking and Selection, and Ordinal Optimization procedures. In order to improve the performance of Ordinal Optimization, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation technique is used to determine the best simulation lengths for all simulation systems and to reduce the total computation time. We also argue the effect of increment in simulation samples for the combined procedure. The results of numerical illustration show clearly the effect of increment in simulation samples on the proposed combination of selection procedure.

Keywords: Indifference-Zone, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation, Ordinal Optimization, Ranking and Selection, Subset Selection.

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Authors: Emily Kislik, Gabriel Mantilla Saltos, Gladys Torres, Mercy Borbor-Córdova

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The Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is an internationally-recognized region of consistent upwelling events, high productivity, and rich biodiversity. Despite its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll condition, the archipelago has experienced phytoplankton blooms, especially in the western section between Isabela and Fernandina Islands. However, little is known about how climate variability will affect future phytoplankton standing stock in the Galápagos, and no consistent protocols currently exist to quantify phytoplankton biomass, identify species, or monitor for potential harmful algal blooms (HABs) within the archipelago. This analysis investigates physical, chemical, and biological oceanic variables that contribute to algal blooms within the GMR, using 4 km Aqua MODIS satellite imagery and 0.125-degree wind stress data from January 2003 to December 2016. Furthermore, this study analyzes chlorophyll-a concentrations at varying spatial scales— within the greater archipelago, as well as within five smaller bioregions based on species biodiversity in the GMR. Seasonal and interannual trend analyses, correlations, and hotspot identification were performed. Results demonstrate that chlorophyll-a is expressed in two seasons throughout the year in the GMR, most frequently in September and March, with a notable hotspot in the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Interannual chlorophyll-a trend analyses revealed highest peaks in 2003, 2007, 2013, and 2016, and variables that correlate highly with chlorophyll-a include surface temperature and particulate organic carbon. This study recommends future in situ sampling locations for phytoplankton monitoring, including the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Conclusions from this study contribute to the knowledge of oceanic drivers that catalyze primary productivity and consequently affect species biodiversity within the GMR. Additionally, this research can inform policy and decision-making strategies for species conservation and management within bioregions of the Galápagos.

Keywords: Bioregions, ecological monitoring, phytoplankton, remote sensing.

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Authors: D.Katherasan, Madana Sashikant, S.Sandeep Bhat, P.Sathiya

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Bead-on-plate welds were carried out on AISI 316L (N) austenitic stainless steel (ASS) using flux cored arc welding (FCAW) process. The bead on plates weld was conducted as per L25 orthogonal array. In this paper, the weld bead geometry such as depth of penetration (DOP), bead width (BW) and weld reinforcement (R) of AISI 316L (N) ASS are investigated. Taguchi approach is used as statistical design of experiment (DOE) technique for optimizing the selected welding input parameters. Grey relational analysis and desirability approach are applied to optimize the input parameters considering multiple output variables simultaneously. Confirmation experiment has also been conducted to validate the optimized parameters.

Keywords: bead-on-plate welding, bead profiles, desirability approach, grey relational analysis

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