Search results for: Human Arm model

Authors: G. Tamilpavai, C. Vishnuppriya

Abstract:

Studying DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) sequence is useful in biological processes and it is applied in the fields such as diagnostic and forensic research. DNA is the hereditary information in human and almost all other organisms. It is passed to their generations. Earlier stage detection of defective DNA sequence may lead to many developments in the field of Bioinformatics. Nowadays various tedious techniques are used to identify defective DNA. The proposed work is to analyze and identify the cancer-causing DNA motif in a given sequence. Initially the human DNA sequence is separated as k-mers using k-mer separation rule. The separated k-mers are clustered using Self Organizing Map (SOM). Using Levenshtein distance measure, cancer associated DNA motif is identified from the k-mer clusters. Experimental results of this work indicate the presence or absence of cancer causing DNA motif. If the cancer associated DNA motif is found in DNA, it is declared as the cancer disease causing DNA sequence. Otherwise the input human DNA is declared as normal sequence. Finally, elapsed time is calculated for finding the presence of cancer causing DNA motif using clustering formation. It is compared with normal process of finding cancer causing DNA motif. Locating cancer associated motif is easier in cluster formation process than the other one. The proposed work will be an initiative aid for finding genetic disease related research.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, cancer motif, DNA, k-mers, Levenshtein distance, SOM.

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Authors: H. Pahlavanzadeh, A.R.Jahangiri, I. Noshadi

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In this paper, the solubility of CO2 in AMP solution have been measured at temperature range of ( 293, 303 ,313,323) K.The amine concentration ranges studied are (2.0, 2.8, and 3.4) M. A solubility apparatus was used to measure the solubility of CO2 in AMP solution on samples of flue gases from Thermal and Central Power Plants of Esfahan Steel Company. The modified Kent Eisenberg model was used to correlate and predict the vapor-liquid equilibria of the (CO2 + AMP + H2O) system. The model predicted results are in good agreement with the experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium measurements.

Keywords: AMP, Carbon dioxide; loading, Flue gases, Modified Kent Eisenberg model

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Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

Abstract:

In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: Multi-physical domain, conduction model, port-based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling.

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Authors: Sepideh Fazeli, Fariba Bahrami

Abstract:

Investigating language acquisition is one of the most challenging problems in the area of studying language. Syllable learning as a level of language acquisition has a considerable significance since it plays an important role in language acquisition. Because of impossibility of studying language acquisition directly with children, especially in its developmental phases, computer models will be useful in examining language acquisition. In this paper a computer model of early language learning for syllable learning is proposed. It is guided by a conceptual model of syllable learning which is named Directions Into Velocities of Articulators model (DIVA). The computer model uses simple associational and reinforcement learning rules within neural network architecture which are inspired by neuroscience. Our simulation results verify the ability of the proposed computer model in producing phonemes during babbling and early speech. Also, it provides a framework for examining the neural basis of language learning and communication disorders.

Keywords: Brain modeling, computer models, language acquisition, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

Abstract:

Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: Amir Eghbal Khajeh Rahimi, Fardin Boustani, Omid Tabiee, Masoud Hashemi

Abstract:

The Beshar River is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems in the upstream of the Karun watershed in south of Iran which is affected by point and non point pollutant sources . This study was done in order to evaluate the effects of pollutants activities on the water quality of the Beshar river and its aquatic ecosystems. This river is approximately 190 km in length and situated at the geographical positions of 51° 20´ to 51° 48´ E and 30° 18´ to 30° 52´ N it is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province in south-west Iran. In this research project, five study stations were selected to examine water pollution in the Beshar River systems. Human activity is now one of the most important factors affecting on hydrology and water quality of the Beshar river. Humans use large amounts of resources to sustain various standards of living, although measures of sustainability are highly variable depending on how sustainability is defined. The Beshar river ecosystems are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to human activities. Therefore, to determine the impact of human activities on the Beshar River, the most important water quality parameters such as pH, dissolve oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD5), Total Dissolve Solids (TDS), Nitrates (NO3-N) and Phosphates (PO4) were estimated at the five stations. As the results show, the most important pollution index parameters such as BOD5, NO3 and PO4 increase and DO and pH decrease according to human activities (P<0.05). However, due to pollutant degradation and dilution, pollution index parameters improve downstream sampling stations.

Keywords: Human activities, Water pollution, Beshar River, Iran.

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Authors: Eduardo F. Arias, William Cooke III, Zhaofei Fan, William Kingery

Abstract:

During the last decade Panicum virgatum, known as Switchgrass, has been broadly studied because of its remarkable attributes as a substitute pasture and as a functional biofuel source. The objective of this investigation was to establish soil suitability for Switchgrass in the State of Mississippi. A linear weighted additive model was developed to forecast soil suitability. Multicriteria analysis and Sensitivity analysis were utilized to adjust and optimize the model. The model was fit using seven years of field data associated with soils characteristics collected from Natural Resources Conservation System - United States Department of Agriculture (NRCS-USDA). The best model was selected by correlating calculated biomass yield with each model's soils-based output for Switchgrass suitability. Coefficient of determination (r2) was the decisive factor used to establish the 'best' soil suitability model. Coefficients associated with the 'best' model were implemented within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to create a map of relative soil suitability for Switchgrass in Mississippi. A Geodatabase associated with soil parameters was built and is available for future Geographic Information System use.

Keywords: Aptness, GIS, sensitivity analysis, switchgrass, soil.

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Authors: Prateek Maheshwari, Nitin Seth, Anoop Kumar Gupta

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The objective of present research paper is to highlight the importance of measuring advertisement effectiveness in print media and to develop a conceptual model for advertisement effectiveness. The developed model is based on dimensions on which advertisement effectiveness depends and on the dimensions which are used to measure the effectiveness. An in-depth and extensive literature review is carried out to understand the concept of advertisement effectiveness and its various determinants in context of print media. Based on the insights gained, a conceptual framework for advertisement effectiveness is presented. The model is an attempt to uncover the relatively less explored area of advertisement effectiveness in Indian advertising scenario. It is believed that present work will encourage scholars and academicians to further explore the area and will offer conceptual assistance and a fresh direction in the domain of advertisement effectiveness.

Keywords: Advertisement Effectiveness, Conceptual Model, Effectiveness Dimensions, Print Media.

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Authors: Wei Dong, Guo-Ying Gu, Xiangyang Zhu, Han Ding

Abstract:

This paper presents preliminary results on modeling and control of a quadrotor UAV. With aerodynamic concepts, a mathematical model is firstly proposed to describe the dynamics of the quadrotor UAV. Parameters of this model are identified by experiments with Matlab Identify Toolbox. A group of PID controllers are then designed based on the developed model. To verify the developed model and controllers, simulations and experiments for altitude control, position control and trajectory tracking are carried out. The results show that the quadrotor UAV well follows the referenced commands, which clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Quadrotor UAV, Modeling, Control, Aerodynamics, System Identification.

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Authors: Ying Shen, Weihua Zhu

Abstract:

Medical images are important to help identifying different diseases, for example, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can be used to investigate the brain, spinal cord, bones, joints, breasts, blood vessels, and heart. Image segmentation, in medical image analysis, is usually the first step to find out some characteristics with similar color, intensity or texture so that the diagnosis could be further carried out based on these features. This paper introduces an improved C-means model to segment the MRI images. The model is based on information entropy to evaluate the segmentation results by achieving global optimization. Several contributions are significant. Firstly, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used for achieving global optimization in this model where fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCMA) is not capable of doing that. Secondly, the information entropy after segmentation is used for measuring the effectiveness of MRI image processing. Experimental results show the outperformance of the proposed model by comparing with traditional approaches.

Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Image, C-means model, image segmentation, information entropy.

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Authors: Rasaki O. Olanrewaju

Abstract:

The driven processes of Wiener and Lévy are known self-standing Gaussian-Markov processes for fitting non-linear dynamical Vasciek model. In this paper, a coincidental Gaussian density stationarity condition and autocorrelation function of the two driven processes were established. This led to the conflation of Wiener and Lévy processes so as to investigate the efficiency of estimates incorporated into the one-dimensional Vasciek model that was estimated via the Maximum Likelihood (ML) technique. The conditional laws of drift, diffusion and stationarity process was ascertained for the individual Wiener and Lévy processes as well as the commingle of the two processes for a fixed effect and Autoregressive like Vasciek model when subjected to financial series; exchange rate of Naira-CFA Franc. In addition, the model performance error of the sub-merged driven process was miniature compared to the self-standing driven process of Wiener and Lévy.

Keywords: Wiener process, Lévy process, Vasciek model, drift, diffusion, Gaussian density stationary.

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Authors: A.V.Naresh Babu, S.Sivanagaraju, Ch.Padmanabharaju, T.Ramana

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The interline power flow controller (IPFC) is one of the latest generation flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) controller used to control power flows of multiple transmission lines. This paper presents a mathematical model of IPFC, termed as power injection model (PIM). This model is incorporated in Newton- Raphson (NR) power flow algorithm to study the power flow control in transmission lines in which IPFC is placed. A program in MATLAB has been written in order to extend conventional NR algorithm based on this model. Numerical results are carried out on a standard 2 machine 5 bus system. The results without and with IPFC are compared in terms of voltages, active and reactive power flows to demonstrate the performance of the IPFC model.

Keywords: flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS), interline power flow controller (IPFC), power injection model (PIM), power flow control.

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Authors: Chen Wu, Komal Narejo, Dandan Li

Abstract:

Some extended rough set models in incomplete information system cannot distinguish the two objects that have few known attributes and more unknown attributes; some cannot make a flexible and accurate discrimination. In order to solve this problem, this paper suggests an improved limited tolerance rough set model using two thresholds to control what two objects have a relationship between them in limited tolerance relation and to classify objects. Our practical study case shows the model can get fine and reasonable decision results.

Keywords: Decision rule, incomplete information system, limited tolerance relation, rough set model.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated Strict Arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for zero inflated strict arcsine model. Bootstrapping is then employed to compute the confidence intervals for the estimated parameters.

Keywords: overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing, BCa confidence intervals.

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Authors: Chong-Yang Qiao

Abstract:

Mobile augmented reality (MAR) tracking targets from the surroundings and aids operators for interactive data and procedures visualization, potential equipment and system understandably. Operators remotely communicate and coordinate with each other for the continuous tasks, information and data exchange between control room and work-site. In the routine work, distributed control system (DCS) monitoring and work-site manipulation require operators interact in real-time manners. The critical question is the improvement of user experience in cooperative works through applying Augmented Reality in the traditional industrial field. The purpose of this exploratory study is to find the cognitive model for the multiple task performance by MAR. In particular, the focus will be on the comparison between different tasks and environment factors which influence information processing. Three experiments use interface and interaction design, the content of start-up, maintenance and stop embedded in the mobile application. With the evaluation criteria of time demands and human errors, and analysis of the mental process and the behavior action during the multiple tasks, heuristic evaluation was used to find the operators performance with different situation factors, and record the information processing in recognition, interpretation, judgment and reasoning. The research will find the functional properties of MAR and constrain the development of the cognitive model. Conclusions can be drawn that suggest MAR is easy to use and useful for operators in the remote collaborative works.

Keywords: Mobile augmented reality, remote collaboration, user experience, cognitive model.

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Authors: Trien V. Do, Jong-Weon Lee

Abstract:

This paper describes a 3D modeling system in Augmented Reality environment, named 3DARModeler. It can be considered a simple version of 3D Studio Max with necessary functions for a modeling system such as creating objects, applying texture, adding animation, estimating real light sources and casting shadows. The 3DARModeler introduces convenient, and effective human-computer interaction to build 3D models by combining both the traditional input method (mouse/keyboard) and the tangible input method (markers). It has the ability to align a new virtual object with the existing parts of a model. The 3DARModeler targets nontechnical users. As such, they do not need much knowledge of computer graphics and modeling techniques. All they have to do is select basic objects, customize their attributes, and put them together to build a 3D model in a simple and intuitive way as if they were doing in the real world. Using the hierarchical modeling technique, the users are able to group several basic objects to manage them as a unified, complex object. The system can also connect with other 3D systems by importing and exporting VRML/3Ds Max files. A module of speech recognition is included in the system to provide flexible user interfaces.

Keywords: 3D Modeling, Augmented Reality, GeometricModeling, Virtual Reality

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Authors: Nitish Kumar Vaja, Oumar Barry, Brian DeJong

Abstract:

Aeolian vibrations are the major cause for the failure of conductor cables. Using a Stockbridge damper reduces these vibrations and increases the life span of the conductor cable. Designing an efficient Stockbridge damper that suits the conductor cable requires a robust mathematical model with minimum assumptions. However it is not easy to analytically model the complex geometry of the messenger. Therefore an equivalent stiffness must be determined so that it can be used in the analytical model. This paper examines the bending stiffness of the cable and discusses the effect of this stiffness on the natural frequencies. The obtained equivalent stiffness compensates for the assumption of modeling the messenger as a rod. The results from the free vibration analysis of the analytical model with the equivalent stiffness is validated using the full scale finite element model of the Stockbridge damper.

Keywords: Equivalent stiffness, finite element model, free vibration response, Stockbridge damper.

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Authors: Mohamed Elshal, Hazim El-Mounayri, Omar El-Mounayri

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Emergency department (ED) is considered as a complex system of interacting entities: patients, human resources, software and hardware systems, interfaces, and other systems. This paper represents a research for implementing a detailed Systems Engineering (SE) approach in a mid-size hospital in central Indiana. This methodology will be applied by “The Initiative for Product Lifecycle Innovation (IPLI)” institution at Indiana University to study and solve the crowding problem with the aim of increasing throughput of patients and enhance their treatment experience; therefore, the nature of crowding problem needs to be investigated with all other problems that leads to it. The presented SE methods are workflow analysis and systems modeling where SE tools such as Microsoft Visio are used to construct a group of system-level diagrams that demonstrate: patient’s workflow, documentation and communication flow, data systems, human resources workflow and requirements, leadership involved, and integration between ER different systems. Finally, the ultimate goal will be managing the process through implementation of an executable model using commercialized software tools, which will identify bottlenecks, improve documentation flow, and help make the process faster.

Keywords: Systems modeling, ED operation, workflow modeling, systems analysis.

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Authors: L. Richter, J. Lübkemann, P. Nyhuis

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In order to remain competitive in what is a turbulent environment; businesses must be able to react rapidly to change. The past response to volatile market conditions was to introduce an element of flexibility to production. Nowadays, what is often required is a redesign of factory structures in order to cope with the state of constant flux. The Institute of Production Systems and Logistics is currently developing a descriptive and causal model for the redesign of plant structures as part of an ongoing research project. This article presents the first research findings attained in devising this model.

Keywords: Causal model, change driven factory redesign, factory planning, plant structure.

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Authors: M. K. Bhuyan, P. K. Bora, D. Ghosh

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One very interesting field of research in Pattern Recognition that has gained much attention in recent times is Gesture Recognition. In this paper, we consider a form of dynamic hand gestures that are characterized by total movement of the hand (arm) in space. For these types of gestures, the shape of the hand (palm) during gesturing does not bear any significance. In our work, we propose a model-based method for tracking hand motion in space, thereby estimating the hand motion trajectory. We employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm for time alignment and normalization of spatio-temporal variations that exist among samples belonging to the same gesture class. During training, one template trajectory and one prototype feature vector are generated for every gesture class. Features used in our work include some static and dynamic motion trajectory features. Recognition is accomplished in two stages. In the first stage, all unlikely gesture classes are eliminated by comparing the input gesture trajectory to all the template trajectories. In the next stage, feature vector extracted from the input gesture is compared to all the class prototype feature vectors using a distance classifier. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed trajectory estimator and classifier is suitable for Human Computer Interaction (HCI) platform.

Keywords: Hand gesture, human computer interaction, key video object plane, dynamic time warping.

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Authors: L. Korpinen, T. Kava, I. Salmi

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This study aimed to describe the operating model of obstructive sleep apnea. Due to the large number of patients, the role of nurses in the diagnosis and treatment of sleep apnea was important. Pulmonary physicians met only a minority of the patients. The sleep apnea study in 2018 included about 800 patients, of which about 28% were normal and 180 patients were classified as severe (apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] over 30). The operating model has proven to be workable and appropriate. The patients understand well that they may not be referred to a pulmonary doctor. However, specialized medical follow-up on professional drivers continues every year.

Keywords: Sleep, apnea patient, operating model, hospital.

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Authors: Kamolrat Turner, Boontuan Wattanakul

Abstract:

Critical thinking and creativity are prerequisite skills for working professionals in the 21^st century. A survey conducted in 2014 at the Boromarajonani College of Nursing, Chon Buri, Thailand, revealed that these skills within students across all academic years was at a low to moderate level. An action research study was conducted to develop the EREC IF Model, a framework which includes the concepts of experience, reflection, engagement, culture and language, ICT, and flexibility and fun, to guide pedagogic activities for 75 sophomores of the undergraduate nursing science program at the college. The model was applied to all professional nursing courses. Prior to implementation, workshops were held to prepare lecturers and students. Both lecturers and students initially expressed their discomfort and pointed to the difficulties with the model. However, later they felt more comfortable, and by the end of the project they expressed their understanding and appreciation of the model. A survey conducted four and eight months after implementation found that the critical thinking and creativity skills of the sophomores were significantly higher than those recorded in the pretest. It could be concluded that the EREC IF model is efficient for fostering critical thinking and creativity skills in the undergraduate nursing science program. This model should be used for other levels of students.

Keywords: Critical thinking, creativity, undergraduate nursing students, EREC IF model.

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Authors: F. F. Howard, I. Yakubu, C. B. Boye, J. S. Y. Kuma

Abstract:

Natural and human activities, such as mining operations, expose the natural soil to adverse environmental conditions, leading to contamination of soil, groundwater, and surface water, which has negative effects on humans, flora, and fauna. Bare or partly exposed soil is most liable to fluvial erosion. This paper enumerates various methods used to identify, map, and model fluvial erosion in a mining environment. Classical, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and GIS methods have been reviewed. One of the many classical methods used to estimate river erosion is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. The RUSLE model is easy to use. Its reliance on empirical relationships that may not always be applicable to specific circumstances or locations is a flaw. Other classical models for estimating fluvial erosion are the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). These models offer a more complete understanding of the underlying physical processes and encompass a wider range of situations. Although more difficult to utilise, they depend on the availability and dependability of input data for correctness. AI can help deal with multivariate and complex difficulties and predict soil loss with higher accuracy than traditional methods, and also be used to build unique models for identifying degraded areas. AI techniques have become popular as an alternative predictor for degraded environments. However, this research proposed a hybrid of classical, AI, and GIS methods for efficient and effective modelling of fluvial erosion.

Keywords: Fluvial erosion, classical methods, Artificial Intelligence, Geographic Information System.

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Authors: Shiva Abdoli, Daniel T. Semere

Abstract:

Several researches have been conducted to study consumption of energy in cutting process. Most of these researches are focusing to measure the consumption and propose consumption reduction methods. In this work, the relation between the cutting parameters and the consumption is investigated in order to establish a generalized energy consumption model that can be used for process and production planning in real production lines. Using the generalized model, the process planning will be carried out by taking into account the energy as a function of the selected process parameters. Similarly, the generalized model can be used in production planning to select the right operational parameters like batch sizes, routing, buffer size, etc. in a production line. The description and derivation of the model as well as a case study are given in this paper to illustrate the applicability and validity of the model.

Keywords: Process parameters, cutting process, energy efficiency, Material Removal Rate (MRR).

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Authors: AbdulLateef A. Olanrewaju, Mohd F. Khamidi, Arazi Idrus

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This paper is part of an ongoing research on the development of systemic maintenance management model Malaysian university buildings. In order to achieve this aim, there is a need to develop a performance model against which services are measure. Measuring performance is a significant part of maintenance management service delivery. Maintenance organization needs to know where they are in order to provide user-driven services and to enhance productivity. The aim of this paper is to formulate a template or model for university maintenance organization in Malaysia. The model is based on literature review and survey questionnaire and has been validated. Through grounded theory, this paper developed a 8 points matrix for the university maintenance organizations for measuring and improving their service delivery. The potential of the model is guide and assists towards providing value added service delivery through initiating maintenance according to user value system rather than on the condition of the building.

Keywords: Performance matrix, university buildings, users, maintenance organization

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Authors: F. Pourhasanzade, S. H. Sabzpoushan

Abstract:

The heart tissue is an excitable media. A Cellular Automata is a type of model that can be used to model cardiac action potential propagation. One of the advantages of this approach against the methods based on differential equations is its high speed in large scale simulations. Recent cellular automata models are not able to avoid flat edges in the result patterns or have large neighborhoods. In this paper, we present a new model to eliminate flat edges by minimum number of neighbors.

Keywords: Cellular Automata, Action Potential Simulation, Isotropic Pattern.

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Authors: Motonobu Hattori, Rina Suzuki

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In neural networks, when new patters are learned by a network, they radically interfere with previously stored patterns. This drawback is called catastrophic forgetting. We have already proposed a biologically inspired dual-network memory model which can much reduce this forgetting for static patterns. In this model, information is first stored in the hippocampal network, and thereafter, it is transferred to the neocortical network using pseudopatterns. Because temporal sequence learning is more important than static pattern learning in the real world, in this study, we improve our conventional  dual-network memory model so that it can deal with temporal sequences without catastrophic forgetting. The computer simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed dual-network memory model.  

Keywords: Catastrophic forgetting, dual-network, temporal sequences.

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Authors: Osama A. Marzouk

Abstract:

We propose a reduced-ordermodel for the instantaneous hydrodynamic force on a cylinder. The model consists of a system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which can be integrated in time to yield very accurate histories of the resultant force and its direction. In contrast to several existing models, the proposed model considers the actual (total) hydrodynamic force rather than its perpendicular or parallel projection (the lift and drag), and captures the complete force rather than the oscillatory part only. We study and provide descriptions of the relationship between the model parameters, evaluated utilizing results from numerical simulations, and the Reynolds number so that the model can be used at any arbitrary value within the considered range of 100 to 500 to provide accurate representation of the force without the need to perform timeconsuming simulations and solving the partial differential equations (PDEs) governing the flow field.

Keywords: reduced-order model, wake oscillator, nonlinear, ODEsystem

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Authors: Md. Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

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This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. We develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Boundary-fitted nested grid model, finite difference method, Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Southern Thailand.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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