{"title":"A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction","authors":"Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch\u00a8attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju","volume":134,"journal":"International Journal of Marine and Environmental Sciences","pagesStart":130,"pagesEnd":139,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/10008642","abstract":"The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are
\r\nconsidered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction.
\r\nA couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational
\r\nweather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely
\r\nthe Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the
\r\nWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the
\r\nmodels’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st
\r\nApril 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE)
\r\nand the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the
\r\nmodels, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events
\r\nand extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default
\r\nparameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution
\r\n(7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of
\r\nlargely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The
\r\nCOSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly
\r\n(p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF
\r\nmodel (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model
\r\n(RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better
\r\nthan the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light
\r\nrainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events
\r\nwith the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting
\r\nsignificantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE:
\r\n35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of
\r\nthe models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.","references":"[1] M. Paras and M. Sanjay, \u201cA simple weather forecasting model\r\nusing mathematical regression.,\u201d Indian Research Journal of Extension\r\nEducation, pp. 161\u2013168, 2012.\r\n[2] F. G. Du, W., X. Y. Hou, and W. Zhu, \u201cA case study in flood fatality:\r\nBeijing July 2012 flood,\u201d 2013.\r\n[3] D. J. Short Gianotti, B. T. Anderson, and G. D. Salvucci, \u201cThe potential\r\npredictability of precipitation occurrence, intensity, and seasonal totals\r\nover the continental United States.,\u201d Journal of Climate, pp. 6904\u20136918,\r\n2014.\r\n[4] I. Mugume, C. Basalirwa, D. Waiswa, J. Reuder, M. d. S. Mesquita,\r\nS. Tao, and T. J. Ngailo, \u201cComparison of parametric and nonparametric\r\nmethods for analyzing the bias of a numerical model,\u201d Modelling and\r\nSimulation in Engineering, pp. 1\u20138, 2016.\r\n[5] A. Grosjean and J. 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