Search results for: stochastic errors.

Authors: Seyed Ali Jafari, Mohammad Ghomi Avili, Emad Benhelal

Abstract:

In this study, a mathematical model was proposed and the accuracy of this model was assessed to predict the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and rhamnolipid production under nitrogen limiting (sodium nitrate) fed-batch fermentation. All of the parameters used in this model were achieved individually without using any data from the literature. The overall growth kinetic of the strain was evaluated using a dual-parallel substrate Monod equation which was described by several batch experimental data. Fed-batch data under different glycerol (as the sole carbon source, C/N=10) concentrations and feed flow rates were used to describe the proposed fed-batch model and other parameters. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed model several verification experiments were performed in a vast range of initial glycerol concentrations. While the results showed an acceptable prediction for rhamnolipid production (less than 10% error), in case of biomass prediction the errors were less than 23%. It was also found that the rhamnolipid production by P. aeruginosa was more sensitive at low glycerol concentrations. Based on the findings of this work, it was concluded that the proposed model could effectively be employed for rhamnolipid production by this strain under fed-batch fermentation on up to 80 g l- 1 glycerol.

Keywords: Fed-batch culture, glycerol, kinetic parameters, modelling, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, rhamnolipid.

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Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

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Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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Authors: Marco Soares dos Santos, Camila Nicola Boeri, Jorge Augusto Ferreira, Fernando Neto da Silva

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The highly nonlinear characteristics of drying processes have prompted researchers to seek new nonlinear control solutions. However, the relation between the implementation complexity, on-line processing complexity, reliability control structure and controller-s performance is not well established. The present paper proposes high performance nonlinear fuzzy controllers for a real-time operation of a drying machine, being developed under a consistent match between those issues. A PCI-6025E data acquisition device from National Instruments® was used, and the control system was fully designed with MATLAB® / SIMULINK language. Drying parameters, namely relative humidity and temperature, were controlled through MIMOs Hybrid Bang-bang+PI (BPI) and Four-dimensional Fuzzy Logic (FLC) real-time-based controllers to perform drying tests on biological materials. The performance of the drying strategies was compared through several criteria, which are reported without controllers- retuning. Controllers- performance analysis has showed much better performance of FLC than BPI controller. The absolute errors were lower than 8,85 % for Fuzzy Logic Controller, about three times lower than the experimental results with BPI control.

Keywords: Drying control, Fuzzy logic control, Intelligent temperature-humidity control.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.

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Authors: Pratch Kittipongpattana, Thongchai Fongsamootr

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This research aimed to study the influences of a soot blowing operation and geometrical variables to the stress characteristic of water wall tubes located in soot blowing areas which caused the boilers of Mae Moh power plant to lose their generation hour. The research method is divided into 2 parts (a) measuring the strain on water wall tubes by using 3-element rosette strain gages orientation during a full capacity plant operation and in periods of soot blowing operations (b) creating a finite element model in order to calculate stresses on tubes and validating the model by using experimental data in a steady state plant operation. Then, the geometrical variables in the model were changed to study stresses on the tubes. The results revealed that the stress was not affected by the soot blowing process and the finite element model gave the results 1.24% errors from the experiment. The geometrical variables influenced the stress, with the most optimum tubes design in this research reduced the average stress from the present design 31.28%.

Keywords: Boiler water wall tube, Finite element, Stress analysis, Strain gage rosette.

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Authors: Zulkiflee M., Robiah Y., Nur Azman Abu, Shahrin S.

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Malware is software which was invented and meant for doing harms on computers. Malware is becoming a significant threat in computer network nowadays. Malware attack is not just only involving financial lost but it can also cause fatal errors which may cost lives in some cases. As new Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) emerged, many people believe this protocol could solve most malware propagation issues due to its broader addressing scheme. As IPv6 is still new compares to native IPv4, some transition mechanisms have been introduced to promote smoother migration. Unfortunately, these transition mechanisms allow some malwares to propagate its attack from IPv4 to IPv6 network environment. In this paper, a proof of concept shall be presented in order to show that some existing IPv4 malware detection technique need to be improvised in order to detect malware attack in dual-stack network more efficiently. A testbed of dual-stack network environment has been deployed and some genuine malware have been released to observe their behaviors. The results between these different scenarios will be analyzed and discussed further in term of their behaviors and propagation methods. The results show that malware behave differently on IPv6 from the IPv4 network protocol on the dual-stack network environment. A new detection technique is called for in order to cater this problem in the near future.

Keywords: Dual-Stack, Malware, Worm, IPv6;IDS

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Authors: Jian Shi, Baoguo Yu, Haonan Jia, Meng Liu, Ping Huang

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Adapting to the flexibility of war, a large number of guided weapons launch from aircraft. Therefore, the inertial navigation system loaded in the weapon needs to undergo an alignment process in the air. This article proposes the following methods to the problem of inaccurate modeling of the system under large misalignment angles, the accuracy reduction of filtering caused by outliers, and the noise changes in GPS signals: first, considering the large misalignment errors of Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS)/GPS, a more accurate model is made rather than to make a small-angle approximation, and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithms are used to estimate the state; then, taking into account the impact of GPS noise changes on the fine alignment algorithm, the innovation adaptive filtering algorithm is introduced to estimate the GPS’s noise in real-time; at the same time, in order to improve the anti-interference ability of the air fine alignment algorithm, a robust filtering algorithm based on outlier detection is combined with the air fine alignment algorithm to improve the robustness of the algorithm. The algorithm can improve the alignment accuracy and robustness under interference conditions, which is verified by simulation.

Keywords: Air alignment, fine alignment, inertial navigation system, integrated navigation system, UKF.

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Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte, V. Grincas

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This paper deals with advanced state estimation algorithms for estimation of biomass concentration and specific growth rate in a typical fed-batch biotechnological process. This biotechnological process was represented by a nonlinear mass-balance based process model. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Particle Filter (PF) was used to estimate the unmeasured state variables from oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and base consumption (BC) measurements. To obtain more general results, a simplified process model was involved in EKF and PF estimation algorithms. This model doesn’t require any special growth kinetic equations and could be applied for state estimation in various bioprocesses. The focus of this investigation was concentrated on the comparison of the estimation quality of the EKF and PF estimators by applying different measurement noises. The simulation results show that Particle Filter algorithm requires significantly more computation time for state estimation but gives lower estimation errors both for biomass concentration and specific growth rate. Also the tuning procedure for Particle Filter is simpler than for EKF. Consequently, Particle Filter should be preferred in real applications, especially for monitoring of industrial bioprocesses where the simplified implementation procedures are always desirable.

Keywords: Biomass concentration, Extended Kalman Filter, Particle Filter, State estimation, Specific growth rate.

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient finite precision block floating point (BFP) treatment to the fixed coefficient finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. The treatment includes effective implementation of all the three forms of the conventional FIR filters, namely, direct form, cascaded and par- allel, and a roundoff error analysis of them in the BFP format. An effective block formatting algorithm together with an adaptive scaling factor is pro- posed to make the realizations more simple from hardware view point. To this end, a generic relation between the tap weight vector length and the input block length is deduced. The implementation scheme also emphasises on a simple block exponent update technique to prevent overflow even during the block to block transition phase. The roundoff noise is also investigated along the analogous lines, taking into consideration these implementational issues. The simulation results show that the BFP roundoff errors depend on the sig- nal level almost in the same way as floating point roundoff noise, resulting in approximately constant signal to noise ratio over a relatively large dynamic range.

Keywords: Finite impulse response digital filters, Cascade structure, Parallel structure, Block floating point arithmetic, Roundoff error.

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Authors: Vignesh Rangaraj, Jerin John, N. Naveen, M. Karuppasamy Pandian, P. Sathyan, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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In this paper parametric analytical studies have been carried out to examine the intrinsic flow physics pertaining to the liftoff time of solid propellant rockets. Idealized inert simulators of solid rockets are selected for numerical studies to examining the preignition chamber dynamics. Detailed diagnostic investigations have been carried out using an unsteady two-dimensional k-omega turbulence model. We conjectured from the numerical results that the altered variations of the igniter jet impingement angle, turbulence level, time and location of the first ignition, flame spread characteristics, the overall chamber dynamics including the boundary layer growth history are having bearing on the time for nozzle flow chocking for establishing the required thrust for the rocket liftoff. We concluded that the altered flow choking time of strap-on motors with the pre-determined identical ignition time at the lift off phase will lead to the malfunctioning of the rocket. We also concluded that, in the light of the space debris, an error in predicting the liftoff time can lead to an unfavorable launch window amounts the satellite injection errors and/or the mission failures.

Keywords: Liftoff, Nozzle Choking, Solid Rocket, Takeoff.

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Authors: S. P. Sharma, Monica Rani

Abstract:

In conventional reliability assessment, the reliability data of system components are treated as crisp values. The collected data have some uncertainties due to errors by human beings/machines or any other sources. These uncertainty factors will limit the understanding of system component failure due to the reason of incomplete data. In these situations, we need to generalize classical methods to fuzzy environment for studying and analyzing the systems of interest. Fuzzy set theory has been proposed to handle such vagueness by generalizing the notion of membership in a set. Essentially, in a Fuzzy Set (FS) each element is associated with a point-value selected from the unit interval [0, 1], which is termed as the grade of membership in the set. A Vague Set (VS), as well as an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (IFS), is a further generalization of an FS. Instead of using point-based membership as in FS, interval-based membership is used in VS. The interval-based membership in VS is more expressive in capturing vagueness of data. In the present paper, vague set theory coupled with conventional Lambda-Tau method is presented for reliability analysis of repairable systems. The methodology uses Petri nets (PN) to model the system instead of fault tree because it allows efficient simultaneous generation of minimal cuts and path sets. The presented method is illustrated with the press unit of the paper mill.

Keywords: Lambda -Tau methodology, Petri nets, repairable system, vague fuzzy set.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. In this paper, Continuous Genetic Algorithm (CGA) is employed to evolve the optimum large neural networks structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. This study describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. We find good performance for the large neural networks. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Feed-forward Large Neural Network, Short-TermLoad Forecasting, Continuous Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Chen Zhang, Bernhard Schwarz-Röhr, Alexander Härting

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To acquire accurate ship motions at the center of gravity, a single low-cost inertial sensor is utilized and applied on board to measure ship oscillating motions. As observations, the three axes accelerations and three axes rotational rates provided by the sensor are used. The mathematical model of processing the observation data includes determination of the distance vector between the sensor and the center of gravity in x, y, and z directions. After setting up the transfer matrix from sensor’s own coordinate system to the ship’s body frame, an extended Kalman filter is applied to deal with nonlinearities between the ship motion in the body frame and the observation information in the sensor’s frame. As a side effect, the method eliminates sensor noise and other unwanted errors. Results are not only roll and pitch, but also linear motions, in particular heave and surge at the center of gravity. For testing, we resort to measurements recorded on a small vessel in a well-defined sea state. With response amplitude operators computed numerically by a commercial software (Seaway), motion characteristics are estimated. These agree well with the measurements after processing with the suggested method.

Keywords: Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear estimation, sea trial, ship motion estimation.

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Authors: Silvio R. R. Sanches, Bianca C. Barbosa, Beatriz R. Brum, Cléber G.Corrêa

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In order to evaluate the quality of a segmentation algorithm, the researchers use subjective or objective metrics. Although subjective metrics are more accurate than objective ones, objective metrics do not require user feedback to test an algorithm. Objective metrics require subjective experiments only during their development. Subjective experiments typically display to users some videos (generated from frames with segmentation errors) that simulate the environment of an application domain. This user feedback is crucial information for metric definition. In the subjective experiments applied to develop some state-of-the-art metrics used to test segmentation algorithms, the videos displayed during the experiments did not contain audio. Audio is an essential component in applications such as videoconference and augmented reality. If the audio influences the user’s perception, using only videos without audio in subjective experiments can compromise the efficiency of an objective metric generated using data from these experiments. This work aims to identify if the audio influences the user’s perception of segmentation quality in background substitution applications with audio. The proposed approach used a subjective method based on formal video quality assessment methods. The results showed that audio influences the quality of segmentation perceived by a user.

Keywords: Background substitution, influence of audio, segmentation evaluation, segmentation quality.

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Authors: Deni Stincer Gomez, Zuraya Monroy Nasr, Luis Pérez Alvarez

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The preparation of academic documents, such as thesis, articles and research projects, is one of the requirements of the higher educational level. These documents demand the implementation of logical argumentative thinking which is experienced and executed with difficulty. To mitigate the effect of these difficulties we designed a thesis seminar, with which we have seven years of experience. It is taught in a graduate program in Psychology at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. In this seminar we use the Toulmin model as a mental heuristic and for the application of a set of psychodidactic strategies that facilitate the elaboration of the plot and culmination of the thesis. The efficiency in obtaining the degree in the groups exposed to the seminar has increased by 94% compared to the 10% that existed in the generations that were not exposed to the seminar. In this article we will emphasize the psychodidactic strategies used. The Toulmin model alone does not guarantee the success achieved. A set of actions of a psychological nature (almost psychotherapeutic) and didactics of the teacher also seem to contribute. These are actions that derive from an understanding of the psychological, epistemological and ontogenetic obstacles and the most frequent errors in which thought tends to fall when it is demanded a logical course. We have grouped the strategies into three groups: 1) strategies to facilitate logical thinking, 2) strategies to strengthen the scientific self and 3) strategies to facilitate the act of writing the text. In this work we delve into each of them.

Keywords: psychodidactic strategies, logical thinking, academic documents, Toulmin model

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Authors: Stephen C. W. Kong

Abstract:

The use of 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models to support construction project planning has been increasing in the previous year. 3D CAD models reveal more planning ideas by visually showing the construction site environment in different stages of the construction process. Using 3D CAD models together with scheduling software to prepare construction plan can identify errors in process sequence and spatial arrangement, which is vital to the success of a construction project. A number of 4D (3D plus time) CAD tools has been developed and utilized in different construction projects due to the awareness of their importance. Virtual prototyping extends the idea of 4D CAD by integrating more features for simulating real construction process. Virtual prototyping originates from the manufacturing industry where production of products such as cars and airplanes are virtually simulated in computer before they are built in the factory. Virtual prototyping integrates 3D CAD, simulation engine, analysis tools (like structural analysis and collision detection), and knowledgebase to streamline the whole product design and production process. In this paper, we present the application of a virtual prototyping software which has been used in a few construction projects in Hong Kong to support construction project planning. Specifically, the paper presents an implementation of virtual prototyping in a residential building project in Hong Kong. The applicability, difficulties and benefits of construction virtual prototyping are examined based on this project.

Keywords: construction project planning, prefabrication, simulation, virtual prototyping.

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Authors: Kyoung-Jong Park, Woong-Gi Jeon, Hee-Cheol Kim, Dong-Eog Kim, Heung-Kook Choi

Abstract:

The brain MR imaging-based clinical research and analysis system were specifically built and the development for a large-scale data was targeted. We used the general clinical data available for building large-scale data. Registration period for the selection of the lesion ROI and the region growing algorithm was used and the Mesh-warp algorithm for matching was implemented. The accuracy of the matching errors was modified individually. Also, the large ROI research data can accumulate by our developed compression method. In this way, the correctly decision criteria to the research result was suggested. The experimental groups were age, sex, MR type, patient ID and smoking which can easily be queries. The result data was visualized of the overlapped images by a color table. Its data was calculated by the statistical package. The evaluation for the utilization of this system in the chronic ischemic damage in the area has done from patients with the acute cerebral infarction. This is the cause of neurologic disability index location in the center portion of the lateral ventricle facing. The corona radiate was found in the position. Finally, the system reliability was measured both inter-user and intra-user registering correlation.

Keywords: Software tool design, Cerebral infarction, Brain MR image, Registration

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Authors: Jacqueline R. T. Alipo-on, Francesca I. F. Escobar, Myles J. T. Tan, Hezerul Abdul Karim, Nouar AlDahoul

Abstract:

Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis and processing are crucial in the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases which are considered as one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the traditional rule-based analysis of large volumes of ECG data is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and prone to human errors. With the advancement of the programming paradigm, algorithms such as machine learning have been increasingly used to perform an analysis on the ECG signals. In this paper, various deep learning algorithms were adapted to classify five classes of heart beat types. The dataset used in this work is the synthetic MIT-Beth Israel Hospital (MIT-BIH) Arrhythmia dataset produced from generative adversarial networks (GANs). Various deep learning models such as ResNet-50 convolutional neural network (CNN), 1-D CNN, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were evaluated and compared. ResNet-50 was found to outperform other models in terms of recall and F1 score using a five-fold average score of 98.88% and 98.87%, respectively. 1-D CNN, on the other hand, was found to have the highest average precision of 98.93%.

Keywords: Heartbeat classification, convolutional neural network, electrocardiogram signals, ECG signals, generative adversarial networks, long short-term memory, LSTM, ResNet-50.

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Authors: Nasibeh Nasiri, Dawood Talebi Khanmiri

Abstract:

Performance of any continuous speech recognition system is highly dependent on performance of the acoustic models. Generally, development of the robust spoken language technology relies on the availability of large amounts of data. Common way to cope with little data for training each state of Markov models is treebased state tying. This tying method applies contextual questions to tie states. Manual procedure for question generation suffers from human errors and is time consuming. Various automatically generated questions are used to construct decision tree. There are three approaches to generate questions to construct HMMs based on decision tree. One approach is based on misrecognized phonemes, another approach basically uses feature table and the other is based on state distributions corresponding to context-independent subword units. In this paper, all these methods of automatic question generation are applied to the decision tree on FARSDAT corpus in Persian language and their results are compared with those of manually generated questions. The results show that automatically generated questions yield much better results and can replace manually generated questions in Persian language.

Keywords: Decision Tree, Markov Models, Speech Recognition, State Tying.

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Authors: Atilla Bayram

Abstract:

This paper presents the trajectory tracking control of a spatial redundant hybrid manipulator. This manipulator consists of two parallel manipulators which are a variable geometry truss (VGT) module. In fact, each VGT module with 3-degress of freedom (DOF) is a planar parallel manipulator and their operational planes of these VGT modules are arranged to be orthogonal to each other. Also, the manipulator contains a twist motion part attached to the top of the second VGT module to supply the missing orientation of the endeffector. These three modules constitute totally 7-DOF hybrid (parallel-parallel) redundant spatial manipulator. The forward kinematics equations of this manipulator are obtained, then, according to these equations, the inverse kinematics is solved based on an optimization with the joint limit avoidance. The dynamic equations are formed by using virtual work method. In order to test the performance of the redundant manipulator and the controllers presented, two different desired trajectories are followed by using the computed force control method and a switching control method. The switching control method is combined with the computed force control method and genetic algorithm. In the switching control method, the genetic algorithm is only used for fine tuning in the compensation of the trajectory tracking errors.

Keywords: Computed force control method, genetic algorithm, hybrid manipulator, inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators, variable geometry truss.

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Authors: Oscar E. Ruiz, S. Arroyave, J. F. Cardona

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In the context of computer numerical control (CNC) and computer aided manufacturing (CAM), the capabilities of programming languages such as symbolic and intuitive programming, program portability and geometrical portfolio have special importance. They allow to save time and to avoid errors during part programming and permit code re-usage. Our updated literature review indicates that the current state of art presents voids in parametric programming, program portability and programming flexibility. In response to this situation, this article presents a compiler implementation for EGCL (Extended G-code Language), a new, enriched CNC programming language which allows the use of descriptive variable names, geometrical functions and flow-control statements (if-then-else, while). Our compiler produces low-level generic, elementary ISO-compliant Gcode, thus allowing for flexibility in the choice of the executing CNC machine and in portability. Our results show that readable variable names and flow control statements allow a simplified and intuitive part programming and permit re-usage of the programs. Future work includes allowing the programmer to define own functions in terms of EGCL, in contrast to the current status of having them as library built-in functions.

Keywords: CNC Programming, Compiler, G-code Language, Numerically Controlled Machine-Tools.

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Authors: Ahmet Kayabasi, Ali Akdagli

Abstract:

In this study, three robust predicting methods, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for computing the resonant frequency of A-shaped compact microstrip antennas (ACMAs) operating at UHF band. Firstly, the resonant frequencies of 144 ACMAs with various dimensions and electrical parameters were simulated with the help of IE3D™ based on method of moment (MoM). The ANN, ANFIS and SVM models for computing the resonant frequency were then built by considering the simulation data. 124 simulated ACMAs were utilized for training and the remaining 20 ACMAs were used for testing the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models are compared in the training and test process. The average percentage errors (APE) regarding the computed resonant frequencies for training of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM were obtained as 0.457%, 0.399% and 0.600%, respectively. The constructed models were then tested and APE values as 0.601% for ANN, 0.744% for ANFIS and 0.623% for SVM were achieved. The results obtained here show that ANN, ANFIS and SVM methods can be successfully applied to compute the resonant frequency of ACMAs, since they are useful and versatile methods that yield accurate results.

Keywords: A-shaped compact microstrip antenna, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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Authors: N. Hammid, F. Bouarab-Dahmani, T. Berkane

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Since its appearance, the MOOC (massive open online course) is gaining more and more intention of the educational communities over the world. Apart from the current MOOCs design and purposes, the creators of MOOC focused on the importance of the connection and knowledge exchange between individuals in learning. In this paper, we present a conceptual model for massive open online blended courses where teachers over the world can collaborate and exchange their experience to get a common efficient content designed as a MOOC opened to their students to live a better learning experience. This model is based on disciplines’ concepts capitalization and the detection of the obstacles met by their students when faced with problem situations (exercises, projects, case studies, etc.). This detection is possible by analyzing the frequently of semantic errors committed by the students. The participation of teachers in the design of the course and the attendance by their students can guarantee an efficient and extensive participation (an important number of participants) in the course, the learners’ motivation and the evaluation issues, in the way that the teachers designing the course assess their students. Thus, the teachers review, together with their knowledge, offer a better assessment and efficient connections to their students.

Keywords: MOOC, Massive Open Online Courses, Online learning, E-learning, Blended learning.

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Authors: Erika Pigliapoco, Valerio Freschi, Alessandro Bogliolo

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This work presents a new phonetic transcription system based on a tree of hierarchical pronunciation rules expressed as context-specific grapheme-phoneme correspondences. The tree is automatically inferred from a phonetic dictionary by incrementally analyzing deeper context levels, eventually representing a minimum set of exhaustive rules that pronounce without errors all the words in the training dictionary and that can be applied to out-of-vocabulary words. The proposed approach improves upon existing rule-tree-based techniques in that it makes use of graphemes, rather than letters, as elementary orthographic units. A new linear algorithm for the segmentation of a word in graphemes is introduced to enable outof- vocabulary grapheme-based phonetic transcription. Exhaustive rule trees provide a canonical representation of the pronunciation rules of a language that can be used not only to pronounce out-of-vocabulary words, but also to analyze and compare the pronunciation rules inferred from different dictionaries. The proposed approach has been implemented in C and tested on Oxford British English and Basic English. Experimental results show that grapheme-based rule trees represent phonetically sound rules and provide better performance than letter-based rule trees.

Keywords: Automatic phonetic transcription, pronunciation rules, hierarchical tree inference.

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Authors: P. S. Thein, S. Pramumijoyo, K. S. Brotopuspito, J. Kiyono, W. Wilopo, A. Furukawa, A. Setianto

Abstract:

In this study, we estimated the seismic ground motion parameters based on microtremor measurements atPalu City. Several earthquakes have struck along the Palu-Koro Fault during recent years. The USGS epicenter, magnitude Mw 6.3 event that occurred on January 23, 2005 caused several casualties. We conducted a microtremor survey to estimate the strong ground motion distribution during the earthquake. From this surveywe produced a map of the peak ground acceleration, velocity, seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain maps in Palu City. We performed single observations of microtremor at 151 sites in Palu City. We also conducted8-site microtremors array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Palu City.From the array observations, Palu City corresponds to relatively soil condition with Vs ≤ 300m/s, the predominant periods due to horizontal vertical ratios (HVSRs) are in the range of 0.4 to 1.8 s and the frequency are in the range of 0.7 to 3.3 Hz. Strong ground motions of the Palu area were predicted based on the empirical stochastic green’s function method. Peak ground acceleration and velocity becomes more than 400 gal and 30 kine in some areas, which causes severe damage for buildings in high probability. Microtremor survey results showed that in hilly areas had low seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain, whereas in coastal alluvium was composed of material having a high seismic vulnerability and ground shear strain indication.

Keywords: Palu-Koro Fault, Microtremor, Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity and Seismic Vulnerability Index.

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Authors: T. O. Olwal, K. Djouani, B. J. van Wyk, Y. Hamam, P. Siarry

Abstract:

Multi-Radio Multi-Channel Wireless Mesh Networks (MRMC-WMNs) operate at the backbone to access and route high volumes of traffic simultaneously. Such roles demand high network capacity, and long “online" time at the expense of accelerated transmission energy depletion and poor connectivity. This is the problem of transmission power control. Numerous power control methods for wireless networks are in literature. However, contributions towards MRMC configurations still face many challenges worth considering. In this paper, an energy-efficient power selection protocol called PMMUP is suggested at the Link-Layer. This protocol first divides the MRMC-WMN into a set of unified channel graphs (UCGs). A UCG consists of multiple radios interconnected to each other via a common wireless channel. In each UCG, a stochastic linear quadratic cost function is formulated. Each user minimizes this cost function consisting of trade-off between the size of unification states and the control action. Unification state variables come from independent UCGs and higher layers of the protocol stack. The PMMUP coordinates power optimizations at the network interface cards (NICs) of wireless mesh routers. The proposed PMMUP based algorithm converges fast analytically with a linear rate. Performance evaluations through simulations confirm the efficacy of the proposed dynamic power control.

Keywords: Effective band inference based power control algorithm (EBIA), Power Selection MRMC Unification Protocol (PMMUP), MRMC State unification Variable Prediction (MRSUP), Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs).

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

Abstract:

Time history dynamic analysis of structures is considered as an exact method while being computationally intensive. Filtration of earthquake strong ground motions applying wavelet transform is an approach towards reduction of computational efforts, particularly in optimization of structures against seismic effects. Wavelet transforms are categorized into continuum and discrete transforms. Since earthquake strong ground motion is a discrete function, the discrete wavelet transform is applied in the present paper. Wavelet transform reduces analysis time by filtration of non-effective frequencies of strong ground motion. Filtration process may be repeated several times while the approximation induces more errors. In this paper, strong ground motion of earthquake has been filtered once applying each wavelet. Strong ground motion of Northridge earthquake is filtered applying various wavelets and dynamic analysis of sampled shear and moment frames is implemented. The error, regarding application of each wavelet, is computed based on comparison of dynamic response of sampled structures with exact responses. Exact responses are computed by dynamic analysis of structures applying non-filtered strong ground motion.

Keywords: Wavelet transform, computational error, computational duration, strong ground motion data.

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Authors: Arnaud Nougues

Abstract:

This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from IMC (Internal Model Control) for tuning a PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need of time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary PI (Proportional-Integral) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Keywords: closed-loop model identification, IMC-PID tuning method, integrating process control, on-line PID tuning adaptation

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Authors: Mohammad Izadkhah, Mojtaba Hoseini, Alireza Khalili Tehrani

Abstract:

In this paper we presented a new method for tracking flying targets in color video sequences based on contour and kernel. The aim of this work is to overcome the problem of losing target in changing light, large displacement, changing speed, and occlusion. The proposed method is made in three steps, estimate the target location by particle filter, segmentation target region using neural network and find the exact contours by greedy snake algorithm. In the proposed method we have used both region and contour information to create target candidate model and this model is dynamically updated during tracking. To avoid the accumulation of errors when updating, target region given to a perceptron neural network to separate the target from background. Then its output used for exact calculation of size and center of the target. Also it is used as the initial contour for the greedy snake algorithm to find the exact target's edge. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a database which contains a lot of challenges such as high speed and agility of aircrafts, background clutter, occlusions, camera movement, and so on. The experimental results show that the use of neural network increases the accuracy of tracking and segmentation.

Keywords: Video tracking, particle filter, greedy snake, neural network.

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