Search results for: residential location preferences

Authors: Khaled Alenezi, Talal Alhajri, M. M. Tahir, Mohamed Ragaee K. Badr, S. O. Bamaga

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The population growth in the world requires an increase in demand of residential and housing construction. Using lightweight construction materials such as cold formed steel sections and ferrocement could be an alternate solution to foster the construction industry. In this study, a new composite column is introduced. It consists of cold formed steel section and ferrocement jacket. The ferrocement jacket was constructed using self-compacting mortar with two wire steel mesh of 550 MPa yield strength. Experimental push out tests was conducted to investigate the strength capacities and behavior of proposed shear connectors namely, bolt, bar-angle and self-drilling screw shear connectors. It was found that bolt connector showed the best behavior followed by bar-angle. Also, it was concluded that the ferrocement could be used to strength and improve the behavior of cold formed steel column.

Keywords: Cold formed steel, composite column, push out test, shear connector, ferrocement, strengthen method.

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Authors: Naser Ahmadi Sani, Karim Solaimani, Lida Razaghnia, Jalal Zandi

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In recent decades, rapid and incorrect changes in land-use have been associated with consequences such as natural resources degradation and environmental pollution. Detecting changes in land-use is one of the tools for natural resource management and assessment of changes in ecosystems. The target of this research is studying the land-use changes in Haraz basin with an area of 677000 hectares in a 15 years period (1996 to 2011) using LANDSAT data. Therefore, the quality of the images was first evaluated. Various enhancement methods for creating synthetic bonds were used in the analysis. Separate training sites were selected for each image. Then the images of each period were classified in 9 classes using supervised classification method and the maximum likelihood algorithm. Finally, the changes were extracted in GIS environment. The results showed that these changes are an alarm for the HARAZ basin status in future. The reason is that 27% of the area has been changed, which is related to changing the range lands to bare land and dry farming and also changing the dense forest to sparse forest, horticulture, farming land and residential area.

Keywords: HARAZ Basin, Change Detection, Land-use, Satellite Data.

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Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting.

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Authors: Murad A, Baker H, Mahmoud S, Gabr A

Abstract:

The groundwater is one of the main sources for sustainability in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Intensive developments in Al-Ain area lead to increase water demand, which consequently reduced the overall groundwater quantity in major aquifers. However, in certain residential areas within Al-Ain, it has been noticed that the groundwater level is rising, for example in Sha-ab Al Askher area. The reasons for the groundwater rising phenomenon are yet to be investigated. In this work, twenty four seismic refraction profiles have been carried out along the study pilot area; as well as field measurement of the groundwater level in a number of available water wells in the area. The processed seismic data indicated the deepest and shallowest groundwater levels are 15m and 2.3 meters respectively. This result is greatly consistent with the proper field measurement of the groundwater level. The minimum detected value may be referred to perched subsurface water which may be associated to the infiltration from the surrounding water bodies such as lakes, and elevated farms. The maximum values indicate the accurate groundwater level within the study area. The findings of this work may be considered as a preliminary help to the decision makers.

Keywords: groundwater, shallow seismic method, United Arab Emirates

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Authors: Yang Xu, Felix Bruns, Elizabeth Gonzalez, Shadi Traboulsi, Klaus Mott, Attila Bilgic

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Emergence of smartphones brings to live the concept of converged devices with the availability of web amenities. Such trend also challenges the mobile devices manufactures and service providers in many aspects, such as security on mobile phones, complex and long time design flow, as well as higher development cost. Among these aspects, security on mobile phones is getting more and more attention. Microkernel based virtualization technology will play a critical role in addressing these challenges and meeting mobile market needs and preferences, since virtualization provides essential isolation for security reasons and it allows multiple operating systems to run on one processor accelerating development and cutting development cost. However, virtualization benefits do not come for free. As an additional software layer, it adds some inevitable virtualization overhead to the system, which may decrease the system performance. In this paper we evaluate and analyze the virtualization performance cost of L4 microkernel based virtualization on a competitive mobile phone by comparing the L4Linux, a para-virtualized Linux on top of L4 microkernel, with the native Linux performance using lmbench and a set of typical mobile phone applications.

Keywords: L4 microkernel, virtualization overhead, mobilephone.

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Authors: Maisam Rafiee, Chikashi Deguchi, Akio Odake, Minoru Matsui, Takanori Sata

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Cities in Afghanistan have been rapidly urbanized; however, many parts of these cities have been developed with no detailed land use plan or infrastructure. In other words, they have been informally developed without any government leadership. The new government started the In-situ Upgrading Project in Kabul to upgrade roads, the water supply network system, and the surface water drainage system on the existing street layout in 2002, with the financial support of international agencies. This project is an appropriate emergency improvement for living life, but not an essential improvement of living conditions and infrastructure problems because the life expectancies of the improved facilities are as short as 10–15 years, and residents cannot obtain land tenure in the unplanned areas. The Land Readjustment System (LRS) conducted in Japan has good advantages that rearrange irregularly shaped land lots and develop the infrastructure effectively. This study investigates the effects of the In-situ Upgrading Project on private investment, land prices, and residents’ satisfaction with projects in Kart-e-Char, where properties are registered, and in Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, where properties are unregistered. These projects are located 5 km and 7 km from the CBD area of Kabul, respectively. This study discusses whether LRS should be applied to the unplanned area based on the questionnaire and interview responses of experts experienced in the In-situ Upgrading Project who have knowledge of LRS. The analysis results reveal that, in Kart-e-Char, a lot of private investment has been made in the construction of medium-rise (five- to nine-story) buildings for commercial and residential purposes. Land values have also incrementally increased since the project, and residents are commonly satisfied with the road pavement, drainage systems, and water supplies, but dissatisfied with the poor delivery of electricity as well as the lack of public facilities (e.g., parks and sport facilities). In Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, basic infrastructures like paved roads and surface water drainage systems have improved from the project. After the project, a few four- and five-story residential buildings were built with very low-level private investments, but significant increases in land prices were not evident. The residents are satisfied with the contribution ratio, drainage system, and small increase in land price, but there is still no drinking water supply system or tenure security; moreover, there are substandard paved roads and a lack of public facilities, such as parks, sport facilities, mosques, and schools. The results of the questionnaire and interviews with the four engineers highlight the problems that remain to be solved in the unplanned areas if LRS is applied—namely, land use differences, types and conditions of the infrastructure still to be installed by the project, and time spent for positive consensus building among the residents, given the project’s budget limitation.

Keywords: In-Situ Upgrading, Kabul, Land Readjustment, Land value, Planned areas, Private investment, Resident satisfaction, Unplanned areas.

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Authors: Ahlam Elkilani, Bayan Elsheikh Ali, Rasha Abu Romman, Amjed Al-mousa, Belal Sababha

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The amount of energy the world uses doubles every 20 years. Green homes play an important role in reducing the residential energy demand. This paper presents a platform that is intended to learn the behavior of home residents and build a profile about their habits and actions. The proposed resident aware home controller intervenes in the operation of home appliances in order to save energy without compromising the convenience of the residents. The presented platform can be used to simulate the actions and movements happening inside a home. The paper includes several optimization techniques that are meant to save energy in the home. In addition, several test scenarios are presented that show how the controller works. Moreover, this paper shows the computed actual savings when each of the presented techniques is implemented in a typical home. The test scenarios have validated that the techniques developed are capable of effectively saving energy at homes.

Keywords: Green Home, Resident Aware, Resident Profile, Activity Learning, Machine Learning.

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Authors: Heung Seok Chae, Jaegeol Park

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Recently, there have been an increasing interest in RFID system and RFID systems have been applied to various applications. Load balancing is a fundamental technique for providing scalability of systems by moving workload from overloaded nodes to under-loaded nodes. This paper presents an approach to adaptive load balancing for RFID middlewares. Workloads of RFID middlewares can have a considerable variation according to the location of the connected RFID readers and can abruptly change at a particular instance. The proposed approach considers those characteristics of RFID middle- wares to provide an efficient load balancing.

Keywords: RFID middleware, Adaptive load balancing.

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Authors: C. Agrawal, R. Kumar, A. Gupta, B. Chatterjee

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An experimental investigation has been carried out to study the cooling of a hot horizontal Stainless Steel surface of 3 mm thickness, which has 800±10 C initial temperature. A round water jet of 22 ± 1 oC temperature was injected over the hot surface through straight tube type nozzles of 2.5- 4.8 mm diameter and 250 mm length. The experiments were performed for the jet exit to target surface spacing of 4 times of jet diameter and jet Reynolds number of 5000 -24000. The effect of change in jet Reynolds number on the surface quenching has been investigated form the stagnation point to 16 mm spatial location.  

Keywords: Hot-Surface, Jet Impingement, Quenching, Stagnation Point.

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Authors: E. Ahvar, M. Fathy

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Ad hoc networks are characterized by multihop wireless connectivity, frequently changing network topology and the need for efficient dynamic routing protocols. We compare the performance of three routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks: Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) , Ad Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), location-aided routing(LAR1).The performance differentials are analyzed using varying network load, mobility, and network size. We simulate protocols with GLOMOSIM simulator. Based on the observations, we make recommendations about when the performance of either protocol can be best.

Keywords: Ad hoc Network , Glomosim , routing protocols.

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Authors: Keonwoo Kim, Dowon Hong

Abstract:

Electronic voting (E-voting) using an internet has been recently performed in some nations and regions. There is no spatial restriction which a voter directly has to visit the polling place, but an e-voting using an internet has to go together the computer in which the internet connection is possible. Also, this voting requires an access code for the e-voting through the beforehand report of a voter. To minimize these disadvantages, we propose a method in which a voter, who has the wireless certificate issued in advance, uses its own cellular phone for an e-voting without the special registration for a vote. Our proposal allows a voter to cast his vote in a simple and convenient way without the limit of time and location, thereby increasing the voting rate, and also ensuring confidentiality and anonymity.

Keywords: Voting, mobile terminal, confidentiality, anonymity.

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Authors: J. Pawłat, H. Stryczewska

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Shortening of natural resources will impose greater limitations of electric energy consumption in various fields including water treatment technologies. Small water treatment installations supplied with electric energy from solar sources are perfect example of zero-emission technology. Possibility of solar energy application, as one of the alternative energy resources for decontamination processes is strongly dependent on geographical location. Various examples of solar driven water purification systems are given and design of solar-water treatment installation based on ozone for the geographical conditions in Poland are presented.

Keywords: solar energy, water purification, ozone water treatment

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Authors: Mohan Kotamrazu

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Cyclone Hudhud which battered the city of Visakhapatnam on 12^th October, 2014, damaged many buildings, public amenities and infrastructure facilities along the Visakha- Bheemili coastal corridor. More than half the green cover of the city was wiped out. Majority of the trees along the coastal corridor suffered from complete or partial damage. In order to understand the different ways that trees incurred damage during the cyclone, a damage assessment study was carried out by the author. The areas covered by this study included two university campuses, several parks and residential colonies which bore the brunt of the cyclone. Post disaster attempts have been made to restore many of the trees that have suffered from partial or complete damage from the effects of extreme winds. This paper examines the various ways that trees incurred damage from the cyclone Hudhud and presents some examples of the restoration efforts carried out by educational institutions, public parks and religious institutions of the city of Visakhapatnam in the aftermath of the devastating cyclone.

Keywords: Defoliation, restoration, salt spray damage, wind throw.

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Authors: Kaiwan S. Ismael, Ergun Ercelebi, Majeed Nader

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This paper describes the design and implementation of a hardware setup for online monitoring of 24 refrigerators inside blood bank center using the microcontroller and CAN bus for communications between each node. Due to the security of locations in the blood bank hall and difficulty of monitoring of each refrigerator separately, this work proposes a solution to monitor all the blood bank refrigerators in one location. CAN-bus system is used because it has many applications and advantages, especially for this system due to easy in use, low cost, providing a reduction in wiring, fast to repair and easily expanding the project without a problem.

Keywords: Control Area Network (CAN), monitoring blood bank center, PIC microcontroller, MPLAB IDE.

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Authors: Mohammed F. Alhaddad

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Vortex Induced Vibrations (VIV) is a phenomenon that occurs as a result of a flow passing by a bluff body. The aim of this paper is to identify factors for maximizing oscillation amplitude generated by VIV in order to enhance the energy harnessed through this method. The experimental study in this paper will examine the effect of oscillating cylinder diameter, surface roughness, the location of surface roughness with respect to the centreline of the oscillating cylinder and the velocity on the oscillation amplitude of the used module.

Keywords: Energy, renewable, electrostatic, vibration, vortex.

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Authors: Dehghan Manshadi M., Mirzaei M., Soltani M. R., Ghorbanian K.

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Subsonic wind tunnel experiments were conducted to study the effect of tripped boundary layer on the pressure distribution in the contraction region of the tunnel. Measurements were performed by installing trip strip at two different positions in the concave portion of the contraction. The results show that installation of the trip strips, have significant effects on both turbulence and pressure distribution. The reduction in the free stream turbulence and reduction of the wall static pressure distribution deferred signified with the location of the trip strip.

Keywords: Contraction, pressure distribution, trip strip, turbulence intensity.

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Authors: K. Govender, M. Sinclair

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This paper demonstrates a proof of concept whereby shorter trips and land use densification can be promoted through an alternative approach to planning and implementation of road infrastructure in the South African context. It briefly discusses how the development of the Compact City concept relies on a combination of promoting shorter trips and densification through a change in focus in road infrastructure provision. The methodology developed in this paper uses a traffic model to test the impact of synthesized deterrence functions on congestion locations in the road network through the assignment of traffic on the study network. The results from this study demonstrate that intelligent planning of road infrastructure can indeed promote reduced urban sprawl, increased residential density and mixed-use areas which are supported by an efficient public transport system; and reduced dependence on the freeway network with a fixed road infrastructure budget. The study has resonance for all cities where urban sprawl is seemingly unstoppable.

Keywords: Compact cities, densification, road infrastructure planning, transportation modeling.

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Authors: Chen Bi-Hsiang, Yang Hung-Wen, Lou Jie-Chung, Han Jia-Yun

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This study was investigated on sampling and analyzing water quality in water reservoir & water tower installed in two kind of residential buildings and school facilities. Data of water quality was collected for correlation analysis with frequency of sanitization of water reservoir through questioning managers of building about the inspection charts recorded on equipment for water reservoir. Statistical software packages (SPSS) were applied to the data of two groups (cleaning frequency and water quality) for regression analysis to determine the optimal cleaning frequency of sanitization. The correlation coefficient (R) in this paper represented the degree of correlation, with values of R ranging from +1 to -1.After investigating three categories of drinking water users; this study found that the frequency of sanitization of water reservoir significantly influenced the water quality of drinking water. A higher frequency of sanitization (more than four times per 1 year) implied a higher quality of drinking water. Results indicated that sanitizing water reservoir & water tower should at least twice annually for achieving the aim of safety of drinking water.

Keywords: cleaning frequency of sanitization, parameters ofwater quality, regression analysis, water reservoir & water tower

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Authors: J.-P. Skön, M. Johansson, O. Kauhanen, M. Raatikainen, K. Leiviskä, M. Kolehmainen

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The building sector is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in the European Union (EU) and therefore the active reduction of energy consumption and elimination of energy wastage are among the main goals in it. Healthy housing and energy efficiency are affected by many factors which set challenges to monitoring, control and research of indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy consumption, especially in old buildings. These challenges include measurement and equipment costs, for example. Additionally, the measurement results are difficult to interpret and their usage in the ventilation control is also limited when taking into account the energy efficiency of housing at the same time. The main goal of this study is to develop a cost-effective building monitoring and control system especially for old buildings. The starting point or keyword of the development process is a wireless system; otherwise the installation costs become too high. As the main result, this paper describes an idea of a wireless building monitoring and control system. The first prototype of the system has been installed in 10 residential buildings and in 10 school buildings located in the City of Kuopio, Finland.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, Indoor air quality, Monitoring system, Building automation

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

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This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro, Helenice Vital

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The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed through the modelling technique. Out of the total study area, 8.26% is very high risk, 14.21% high, 9.36% medium, 22.46% low and 7.35% in the very low vulnerable category, due to costal components. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 225.2 km² and 397 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1m and 10m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential, industrial and recreational areas. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as industrializations, building regulation, urban growth planning and agriculture, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.

Keywords: Coastal planning, land use, satellite data, vulnerability.

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Authors: Rebecca Angeles

Abstract:

This case study features the Kuehne + Nagel PharmaChain solution for ‘cold chain’ pharmaceutical and biologic product shipments with IOT-enabled features for shipment temperature and location tracking. Using the case study method and content analysis, this research project investigates the application of the structurational model of technology theory introduced by Orlikowski in order to interpret the firm’s entry and participation in the IOT-impelled marketplace.

Keywords: Internet of things, IoT, radio frequency identification, supply chain management, business intelligence.

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Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Sajjad Jalali, Seyed Habib A. Rahmati

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Recently studies in area of supply chain network (SCN) have focused on the disruption issues in distribution systems. Also this paper extends the previous literature by providing a new biobjective model for cost minimization of designing a three echelon SCN across normal and failure scenarios with considering multi capacity option for manufacturers and distribution centers. Moreover, in order to solve the problem by means of LINGO software, novel model will be reformulated through a branch of LP-Metric method called Min-Max approach.

Keywords: Scenario programming, Distribution, Multi-echelon supply chain design, Reliable facility

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Authors: C. Valderrama-Ulloa, C. Schmitt, J.-P. Marchetti, V. Bucarey

Abstract:

Access to adequate housing is a fundamental human right and a crucial factor for health. Housing should be inclusive, accessible, and able to meet the needs of all its inhabitants at every stage of their lives without hindering their health, autonomy, or independence. This article addresses the importance of designing housing for people with disabilities, which varies depending on individual abilities, preferences, and cultural considerations. Based on the components of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, wheelchair users, little people (achondroplasia), children with autism spectrum disorder and Down syndrome were characterized, and six domains of activities related to daily life inside homes were defined. The article describes the main barriers homes present for this group of people. It proposes a list of architectural and design aspects to reduce barriers to housing use. The aspects are divided into three main groups: space management, building services, and supporting facilities. The article emphasizes the importance of consulting professionals and users with experience designing for diverse needs to create inclusive, safe, and supportive housing for people with disabilities.

Keywords: Achondroplasia, autism spectrum disorder, disability, down syndrome, wheelchair user.

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Authors: TamásMatuszka, Attila Kiss

Abstract:

Due the proliferation of smartphones in everyday use, several different outdoor navigation systems have become available. Since these smartphones are able to connect to the Internet, the users can obtain location-based information during the navigation as well. The users could interactively get to know the specifics of a particular area (for instance, ancient cultural area, Statue Park, cemetery) with the help of thus obtained information. In this paper, we present an Augmented Reality system which uses Semantic Web technologies and is based on the interaction between the user and the smartphone. The system allows navigating through a specific area and provides information and details about the sight an interactive manner.

Keywords: Augmented Reality, Semantic Web, Human Computer Interaction, Mobile Application.

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Authors: Waratta Authayarat, Hiroyuki Umemuro

Abstract:

This study aims to explore the differences and similarities in perceptions of affective climate antecedents at the workplace (intimacy, flexibility, employment stability, and team) among Japanese and Thai Generations X and Y. The samples in this study were Thai and Japanese workers who completed a work environment questionnaire and provided demographic information. Generational differences in perceptions (beliefs) of what factors contribute to affective climate were investigated using t-test analysis. Mean scores for each antecedent were ranked to determine how each generation in each group prioritized the importance of all affective climate antecedents. Japanese Generation Y perceived the importance of employment stability for affective climate of their workplaces to be significantly higher than did Japanese Generation X. Thai Generation Y considered flexibility with a higher priority than did Thai Generation X. Intimacy was perceived as highly important across generations and countries in regard to affective climate. Results suggest that managers should design workplaces for a mixture of diverse generations, resulting in a better affective climate. Differences in the importance of antecedents for affective climate among Generations X and Y in two countries were clarified. In addition, different preferences regarding work environment across Japanese Generations X and Y and Thai Generations X and Y were discussed.

Keywords: Affective Climate, Employee, Generational Differences, Workplace

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Authors: Huma Kanta Mishra, Akira Igarashi

Abstract:

A seismic isolation pad produced by utilizing the scrap tire rubber which contains interleaved steel reinforcing cords has been proposed. The steel cords are expected to function similar to the steel plates used in conventional laminated rubber bearings. The scrap tire rubber pad (STRP) isolator is intended to be used in low rise residential buildings of highly seismic areas of the developing countries. Experimental investigation was conducted on unbonded STRP isolators, and test results provided useful information including stiffness, damping values and an eventual instability of the isolation unit. Finite element analysis (FE analysis) of STRP isolator was carried out on properly bonded samples. These types of isolators provide positive incremental force resisting capacity up to shear strain level of 155%. This paper briefly discusses the force deformation behavior of bonded STRP isolators including stability of the isolation unit.

Keywords: base isolation, buckling load, finite element analysis, STRP isolators.

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

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Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: Carolina B. Baguio

Abstract:

One of the purposes of the robust method of estimation is to reduce the influence of outliers in the data, on the estimates. The outliers arise from gross errors or contamination from distributions with long tails. The trimmed mean is a robust estimate. This means that it is not sensitive to violation of distributional assumptions of the data. It is called an adaptive estimate when the trimming proportion is determined from the data rather than being fixed a “priori-. The main objective of this study is to find out the robustness properties of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of efficiency, high breakdown point and influence function. Specifically, it seeks to find out the magnitude of the trimming proportion of the adaptive trimmed mean which will yield efficient and robust estimates of the parameter for data which follow a modified Weibull distribution with parameter λ = 1/2 , where the trimming proportion is determined by a ratio of two trimmed means defined as the tail length. Secondly, the asymptotic properties of the tail length and the trimmed means are also investigated. Finally, a comparison is made on the efficiency of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of the standard deviation for the trimming proportions and when these were fixed a “priori". The asymptotic tail lengths defined as the ratio of two trimmed means and the asymptotic variances were computed by using the formulas derived. While the values of the standard deviations for the derived tail lengths for data of size 40 simulated from a Weibull distribution were computed for 100 iterations using a computer program written in Pascal language. The findings of the study revealed that the tail lengths of the Weibull distribution increase in magnitudes as the trimming proportions increase, the measure of the tail length and the adaptive trimmed mean are asymptotically independent as the number of observations n becomes very large or approaching infinity, the tail length is asymptotically distributed as the ratio of two independent normal random variables, and the asymptotic variances decrease as the trimming proportions increase. The simulation study revealed empirically that the standard error of the adaptive trimmed mean using the ratio of tail lengths is relatively smaller for different values of trimming proportions than its counterpart when the trimming proportions were fixed a 'priori'.

Keywords: Adaptive robust estimate, asymptotic efficiency, breakdown point, influence function, L-estimates, location parameter, tail length, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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