Search results for: Financial decision making

Authors: Hind Bouami, Patrick Millot

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Handling life-critical systems complexity requires to be equipped with appropriate technology and the right human agents’ functions such as knowledge, experience, and competence in problem’s prevention and solving. Human agents are involved in the management and control of human-machine system’s performance. Documenting human agent’s situation awareness is crucial to support human-machine designers’ decision-making. Knowledge about risks, critical parameters and factors that can impact and threaten automation system’s performance should be collected using preventive and retrospective approaches. This paper aims to document operators’ situation awareness through the analysis of automated organizations’ feedback. The analysis of automated hospital pharmacies feedback helps identify and control critical parameters influencing human machine interaction in order to enhance system’s performance and security. Our human machine system evaluation approach has been deployed in Macon hospital center’s pharmacy which is equipped with automated drug dispensing systems since 2015. Automation’s specifications are related to technical aspects, human-machine interaction, and human aspects. The evaluation of drug delivery automation performance in Macon hospital center has shown that the performance of the automated activity depends on the performance of the automated solution chosen, and also on the control of systemic factors. In fact, 80.95% of automation specification related to the chosen Sinteco’s automated solution is met. The performance of the chosen automated solution is involved in 28.38% of automation specifications performance in Macon hospital center. The remaining systemic parameters involved in automation specifications performance need to be controlled. 

Keywords: Life-critical systems, situation awareness, human-machine interaction, decision-making.

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Authors: H. Silvestre

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The aim of this paper is to know the sociodemographic and operational-financial determinants of the services quality perceived by users of the national health services. Through the use of an inquiry conducted by the Ministry of Health, comprehending 16.936 interviews in 2006, we intend to find out if there is any characteristic that determines the 2006 inquiry results. With the revision of the literature we also want to know if the operational-financial results have implications in hospitals users- perception on the quality of the received services. In order to achieve our main goals we will make use of the regression analysis to find out the possible dimensions that determine those results.

Keywords: Management by Results, Quality Approach, Tableau de Bord, Total Quality Management, Services quality.

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Authors: Erdal Akyol, Mutlu Alkan, Ali Aydin

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Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria are well evaluated.

Keywords: GIS, spatial analysis, multi criteria decision analysis, geotechnics.

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Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

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Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

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Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

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By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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Authors: Matheus Borges Carneiro, Fabiane Letícia Lizarelli, José Carlos de Toledo

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The evolution of quality management by companies was strongly enabled by, among others, ISO 9001 certification, which is considered a crucial requirement for several customers. Likewise, performance measurement provides useful insights for companies to identify the reflection of their decision-making process on their improvement. One of the most used performance measurement models is the balanced scorecard (BSC), which uses four perspectives to address a firm’s performance: financial, internal process, customer satisfaction, and learning and growth. Since ISO 9001 certified firms are likely to measure their performance through BSC approach, it is important to verify whether the certificate influences the firm performance or not. Therefore, this paper aims to verify the impact of ISO 9001:2015 on Brazilian firms’ performance based on the BSC perspective. Hence, nine certified companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil were studied through a multiple case study approach. Within this study, it was possible to identify the positive impact of ISO 9001 on firms’ overall performance, and four Critical Success Factors (CSFs) were identified as relevant on the linkage among ISO 9001 and firms’ performance: employee involvement, top management, process management, and customer focus. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of interviews was limited to the quality manager specialist, and the sample was limited since several companies were closed during the period of the study. This study presents an in-depth analysis of how the relationship between ISO 9001 certification and firms’ performance in a developing country is.

Keywords: Balanced scorecard, Brazilian firms’ performance, critical success factors, ISO 9001 certification, performance measurement.

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Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

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ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

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A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Ilyes Jenhani, Salem Benferhat, Zied Elouedi

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This paper investigates the issue of building decision trees from data with imprecise class values where imprecision is encoded in the form of possibility distributions. The Information Affinity similarity measure is introduced into the well-known gain ratio criterion in order to assess the homogeneity of a set of possibility distributions representing instances-s classes belonging to a given training partition. For the experimental study, we proposed an information affinity based performance criterion which we have used in order to show the performance of the approach on well-known benchmarks.

Keywords: Data mining from uncertain data, Decision Trees, Possibility Theory.

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Authors: Petr Teply

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The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.

Keywords: Basel II, Basel III, risk management, bank regulation

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Authors: Yung-Chien Sun, O. Grant Clark

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In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, intuition, knowledge acquisition, limited certainty.

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Authors: Kolis Karel, Kubicek Ales

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The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the customers- issues in company corporate governance and the financial performance. At the beginning theoretical background consisting stakeholder theory and corporate governance is presented. On this theoretical background, the empirical research is built, collecting data of 60 Czech joint stock companies- boards considering their relationships with customers. Correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis were employed to test the sample on two hypotheses. The weak positive correlation between stakeholder approach and the company size was identified. But both hypotheses were not supported, because there was no significant relation of independent variables to financial performance.

Keywords: customers, stakeholder theory, corporate governance, financial performance

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Authors: Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Seyed Mohammad Mirhashemi

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The current study explored the effect of economic development, financial development and institutional quality on environmental destruction in upper-middle income countries during the time period of 1999-2011. The dependent variable is logarithm of carbon dioxide emissions that can be considered as an index for destruction or quality of the environment given to its effects on the environment. Financial development and institutional development variables as well as some control variables were considered. In order to study cross-sectional correlation among the countries under study, Pesaran and Friz test was used. Since the results of both tests show cross-sectional correlation in the countries under study, seemingly unrelated regression method was utilized for model estimation. The results disclosed that Kuznets’ environmental curve hypothesis is confirmed in upper-middle income countries and also, financial development and institutional quality have a significant effect on environmental quality. The results of this study can be considered by policy makers in countries with different income groups to have access to a growth accompanied by improved environmental quality.

Keywords: Economic Development, Environmental Destruction, Financial Development, Institutional Development, Seemingly Unrelated Regression.

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Authors: Yu-Chun Lin

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We identify clawback triggers from firms- proxy statements (Form DEF 14A) and use the likelihood of restatements to proxy for financial reporting quality. Based on a sample of 578 U.S. firms that voluntarily adopt clawback provisions during 2003-2009, when restatement-based triggers could be decomposed into two types: fraud and unintentional error, and we do observe the evidence that using fraud triggers is associated with high financial reporting quality. The findings support that fraud triggers can enhance deterrent effect of clawback provision by establishing a viable disincentive against fraud, misconduct, and otherwise harmful acts. These results are robust to controlling for the compensation components, to different sample specifications and to a number of sensitivity.

Keywords: Accruals quality, Clawback provisions, Compensation, Restatements.

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Authors: Djamila Benhaddouche, Abdelkader Benyettou

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In this paper, we used data mining to extract biomedical knowledge. In general, complex biomedical data collected in studies of populations are treated by statistical methods, although they are robust, they are not sufficient in themselves to harness the potential wealth of data. For that you used in step two learning algorithms: the Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These supervised classification methods are used to make the diagnosis of thyroid disease. In this context, we propose to promote the study and use of symbolic data mining techniques.

Keywords: A classifier, Algorithms decision tree, knowledge extraction, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Ferenc Peter Pach, Janos Abonyi

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This paper focuses on the data-driven generation of fuzzy IF...THEN rules. The resulted fuzzy rule base can be applied to build a classifier, a model used for prediction, or it can be applied to form a decision support system. Among the wide range of possible approaches, the decision tree and the association rule based algorithms are overviewed, and two new approaches are presented based on the a priori fuzzy clustering based partitioning of the continuous input variables. An application study is also presented, where the developed methods are tested on the well known Wisconsin Breast Cancer classification problem.

Keywords:

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Authors: Ifedapo Francis Awolowo

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The unrelenting series of embarrassing audit failures should stimulate a paradigm shift in accounting. And in this age of information revolution, there is need for a constant improvement on the products or services one offers to the market in order to be relevant. This study explores the perceptions of external auditors, forensic accountants and accounting academics on whether a paradigm shift to forensic accounting can reduce financial statement frauds. Through Neo-empiricism/inductive analytical approach, findings reveal that a paradigm shift to forensic accounting might be the right step in the right direction in order to increase the chances of fraud prevention and detection in the financial statement. This research has implication on accounting education on the need to incorporate forensic accounting into present day accounting curriculum. Accounting professional bodies, accounting standard setters and accounting firms all have roles to play in incorporating forensic accounting education into accounting curriculum. Particularly, there is need to alter the ISA 240 to make the prevention and detection of frauds the responsibilities of bot those charged with the management and governance of companies and statutory auditors.

Keywords: Financial statement fraud, forensic accounting, fraud prevention and detection, auditing, audit expectation gap, corporate governance.

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: M. Okan Tasar

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Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis.

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Authors: Bruno Henrique Rocha Fernandes, Amir Rezaee, Jucelia Appio

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The relation between Human Resource Management (HRM) practices and organizational performance remains the subject of substantial literature. Though many studies demonstrated positive relationship, still major influencing variables are not yet clear. This study considers the Person-Environment Fit (PE Fit) and its components, Person-Supervisor (PS), Person-Group (PG), Person-Organization (PO) and Person-Job (PJ) Fit, as possible explanatory variables. We analyzed PE Fit as a moderator between HRM practices and financial performance in the “best companies to work” in Brazil. Data from HRM practices were classified through the High Performance Working Systems (HPWS) construct and data on PE-Fit were obtained through surveys among employees. Financial data, consisting of return on invested capital (ROIC) and price earnings ratio (PER) were collected for publicly traded best companies to work. Findings show that PO Fit and PJ Fit play a significant moderator role for PER but not for ROIC.

Keywords: Financial performance, human resource management, high performance working systems, person-environment fit.

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Authors: P. Luangpaiboon, P. Aungkulanon

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This work presents a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on the desirability function approach for solving the aggregate production planning (APP) decision problem upon Masud and Hwang-s model. The proposed model minimises total production costs, carrying or backordering costs and rates of change in labor levels. An industrial case demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed model to the APP problems with three scenarios of inventory levels. The proposed model yields an efficient compromise solution and the overall levels of DM satisfaction with the multiple combined response levels. There has been a trend to solve complex planning problems using various metaheuristics. Therefore, in this paper, the multi-objective APP problem is solved by hybrid metaheuristics of the hunting search (HuSIHSA) and firefly (FAIHSA) mechanisms on the improved harmony search algorithm. Results obtained from the solution of are then compared. It is observed that the FAIHSA can be used as a successful alternative solution mechanism for solving APP problems over three scenarios. Furthermore, the FAIHSA provides a systematic framework for facilitating the decision-making process, enabling a decision maker interactively to modify the desirability function approach and related model parameters until a good optimal solution is obtained with proper selection of control parameters when compared.

Keywords: Aggregate Production Planning, Desirability Function Approach, Improved Harmony Search Algorithm, Hunting Search Algorithm and Firefly Algorithm.

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Authors: Mahshid Hatamzad, Geanette Polanco

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Improving the performance of Winter Road Maintenance (WRM) can increase the traffic safety and reduce the cost as well as environmental impacts. This study evaluates the efficiency of WRM technique, named salting, in the Arctic area by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric linear method to measure the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMUs) based on handling multiple inputs and multiple outputs at the same time that their associated weights are not known. Here, roads are considered as DMUs for which the efficiency must be determined. The three input variables considered are traffic flow, road area and WRM cost. In addition, the two output variables included are level of safety in the roads and environment impacts resulted from WRM, which is also considered as an uncontrollable factor in the second scenario. The results show the performance of DMUs from the most efficient WRM to the inefficient/least efficient one and this information provides decision makers with technical support and the required suggested improvements for inefficient WRM, in order to achieve a cost-effective WRM and a safe road transportation during wintertime in the Arctic areas.

Keywords: DEA, environmental impacts, risk and safety, WRM.

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Authors: Hirohide Ushida

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This paper discusses an artificial mind model and its applications. The mind model is based on some theories which assert that emotion is an important function in human decision making. An artificial mind model with emotion is built, and the model is applied to action selection of autonomous agents. In three examples, the agents interact with humans and their environments. The examples show the proposed model effectively work in both virtual agents and real robots.

Keywords: Artificial mind, emotion, interactive agent, pet robot

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Authors: Dimitris Georgoutsos, Petros M. Migiakis

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The concurrent era is characterised by strengthened interactions among financial markets and increased capital mobility globally. In this frames we examine the effects the international financial integration process has on the European bond markets. We perform a comparative study of the interactions of the European and international bond markets and exploit Cointegration analysis results on the elimination of stochastic trends and the decomposition of the underlying long run equilibria and short run causal relations. Our investigation provides evidence on the relation between the European integration process and that of globalisation, viewed through the bond markets- sector. Additionally the structural formulation applied, offers significant implications of the findings. All in all our analysis offers a number of answers on crucial queries towards the European bond markets integration process.

Keywords: financial integration, bond markets, cointegration

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Authors: Adamu Danlami Ahmed

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Inventory management is the determinant of effective and efficient work for any manager. This study looked at the relationship between inventory management and financial performance. The population of the study comprises all conglomerate quoted companies in the Nigerian Stock Exchange market as at 31^st December 2010. The scope of the study covered the period from 2010 to 2014. Descriptive, Pearson correlation and multiple regressions are used to analyze the data. It was found that inventory management is significantly related to the profitability of the company. This entails that an efficient management of the inventory cycle will enhance the profitability of the company. Also, lack of proper management of it will hinder the financial performance of organizations. Based on the results, it was recommended that a conglomerate company should try to see that inventories are kept to a minimum, as well as make sure the proper checks are maintained to make sure only needed inventories are in the store. As well as to keep track of the movement of goods, in order to avoid unnecessary delay of finished and work in progress (WIP) goods in the store and warehouse.

Keywords: Finished goods, work in progress, financial performance, inventory.

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Authors: Hemashree Bordoloi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

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Rotation or tilt present in an image capture by digital means can be detected and corrected using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for application with a Face Recognition System (FRS). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features of faces at different angles are used to train an ANN which detects the rotation for an input image and corrected using a set of operations implemented using another system based on ANN. The work also deals with the recognition of human faces with features from the foreheads, eyes, nose and mouths as decision support entities of the system configured using a Generalized Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (GFFANN). These features are combined to provide a reinforced decision for verification of a person-s identity despite illumination variations. The complete system performing facial image rotation detection, correction and recognition using re-enforced decision support provides a success rate in the higher 90s.

Keywords: Rotation, Face, Recognition, ANN.

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Authors: Ying Zhao

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Keystroke authentication is a new access control system to identify legitimate users via their typing behavior. In this paper, machine learning techniques are adapted for keystroke authentication. Seven learning methods are used to build models to differentiate user keystroke patterns. The selected classification methods are Decision Tree, Naive Bayesian, Instance Based Learning, Decision Table, One Rule, Random Tree and K-star. Among these methods, three of them are studied in more details. The results show that machine learning is a feasible alternative for keystroke authentication. Compared to the conventional Nearest Neighbour method in the recent research, learning methods especially Decision Tree can be more accurate. In addition, the experiment results reveal that 3-Grams is more accurate than 2-Grams and 4-Grams for feature extraction. Also, combination of attributes tend to result higher accuracy.

Keywords: Keystroke Authentication, Pattern recognition, MachineLearning, Instance-based Learning, Bayesian, Decision Tree.

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Authors: Veljko Jeremic, Milica Kostic-Stankovic, Aleksandar Markovic, Milan Martic

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Evaluating the efficiency of decision making units has been frequently elaborated on in numerous publications. In this paper, the theoretical framework for a novel method of Distance Based Analysis (DBA) is presented. In addition, the method is performed on a sample of the ARWU’s top 54 Universities of the United States; the findings of which clearly demonstrate that the best ranked Universities are far from also being the most efficient.

Keywords: Evaluating Efficiency, Distance Based Analysis, Ranking of Universities, ARWU.

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Authors: Alexandru George Floares

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Chronic hepatitis B can evolve to cirrhosis and liver cancer. Interferon is the only effective treatment, for carefully selected patients, but it is very expensive. Some of the selection criteria are based on liver biopsy, an invasive, costly and painful medical procedure. Therefore, developing efficient non-invasive selection systems, could be in the patients benefit and also save money. We investigated the possibility to create intelligent systems to assist the Interferon therapeutical decision, mainly by predicting with acceptable accuracy the results of the biopsy. We used a knowledge discovery in integrated medical data - imaging, clinical, and laboratory data. The resulted intelligent systems, tested on 500 patients with chronic hepatitis B, based on C5.0 decision trees and boosting, predict with 100% accuracy the results of the liver biopsy. Also, by integrating the other patients selection criteria, they offer a non-invasive support for the correct Interferon therapeutic decision. To our best knowledge, these decision systems outperformed all similar systems published in the literature, and offer a realistic opportunity to replace liver biopsy in this medical context.

Keywords: Interferon, chronic hepatitis B, intelligent virtualbiopsy.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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