Search results for: prediction mechanism.

Authors: M. Ghanaatian, N. Ghahramany, A. Bazrafshan

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Following the laser ablation studies leading to a theory of nuclei confinement by a Debye layer mechanism, we present here numerical evaluations for the known stable nuclei where the Coulomb repulsion is included as a rather minor component especially for lager nuclei. In this research paper the required physical conditions for the formation and stability of nuclei particularly endothermic nuclei with mass number greater than to which is an open astrophysical question have been investigated. Using the Debye layer mechanism, nuclear surface energy, Fermi energy and coulomb repulsion energy it is possible to find conditions under which the process of nucleation is permitted in early universe. Our numerical calculations indicate that about 200 second after the big bang at temperature of about 100 KeV and subrelativistic region with nucleon density nearly equal to normal nuclear density namely, 10cm all endothermic and exothermic nuclei have been formed.

Keywords: Endothermic nuclear synthesis, Fermi energy, Surface tension, Debye length.

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Authors: A.F. Haroun, S.M. Megahed

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Clearance in the joints of multibody mechanical systems such as linkage mechanisms and robots is a main source of vibration, and noise of the whole system, and wear of the joints themselves. This clearance is an inevitable matter and cannot be eliminated, since it allows the relative motion between joint components and make them assemblage. This paper presents an experimental verification of the obtained simulation results of a slider – crank mechanism of one clearance revolute joint. The simulation results are obtained with the aid of CAD and dynamic simulation softwares, which is an effective method of simulation multibody systems with clearance joints and have many advantages. The comparison between both simulation and experimental results shows that the simulation results are so close to the experimental ones which proves the accuracy and efficiency of this method of modeling and simulation of mechanical systems with clearance joints.

Keywords: CAD and dynamic simulator softwares, Clearance joints, , Experimental results, Slider – crank mechanism.

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Authors: Ching-Sheng Wang, Yu-Hung Su, Ching-Yang Hong

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This paper takes the actual scene of Aletheia University campus – the Class 2 national monument, the first educational institute in northern Taiwan as an example, to present a 3D virtual navigation system which supports user positioning and pre-download mechanism. The proposed system was designed based on the principle of Voronoi Diagra) to divide the virtual scenes and its multimedia information, which combining outdoor GPS positioning and the indoor RFID location detecting function. When users carry mobile equipments such as notebook computer, UMPC, EeePC...etc., walking around the actual scenes of indoor and outdoor areas of campus, this system can automatically detect the moving path of users and pre-download the needed data so that users will have a smooth and seamless navigation without waiting.

Keywords: GPS, Positioning, RFID, Virtual Navigation, Voronoi Diagram.

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Authors: Adel Sabry Eesa, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani, Zeynep Orman

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This paper presents a new meta-heuristic bio-inspired optimization algorithm which is called Cuttlefish Algorithm (CFA). The algorithm mimics the mechanism of color changing behavior of the cuttlefish to solve numerical global optimization problems. The colors and patterns of the cuttlefish are produced by reflected light from three different layers of cells. The proposed algorithm considers mainly two processes: reflection and visibility. Reflection process simulates light reflection mechanism used by these layers, while visibility process simulates visibility of matching patterns of the cuttlefish. To show the effectiveness of the algorithm, it is tested with some other popular bio-inspired optimization algorithms such as Genetic Algorithms (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Bees Algorithm (BA) that have been previously proposed in the literature. Simulations and obtained results indicate that the proposed CFA is superior when compared with these algorithms.

Keywords: Cuttlefish Algorithm, bio-inspired algorithms, optimization.

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Authors: Peter Odero Akuon

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A rain cell ratio model is proposed that computes attenuation of the smallest rain cell which represents the maximum rain rate value i.e. the cell size when rainfall rate is exceeded 0.01% of the time, R_0.01 and predicts attenuation for other cells as the ratio with this maximum. This model incorporates the dependence of the path factor r on the ellipsoidal path variation of the Fresnel zone at different frequencies. In addition, the inhomogeneity of rainfall is modeled by a rain drop packing density factor. In order to derive the model, two empirical methods that can be used to find rain cell size distribution D_c are presented. Subsequently, attenuation measurements from different climatic zones for terrestrial radio links with frequencies F in the range 7-38 GHz are used to test the proposed model. Prediction results show that the path factor computed from the rain cell ratio technique has improved reliability when compared with other path factor and effective rain rate models, including the current ITU-R 530-15 model of 2013.

Keywords: Packing density of rain drops, prediction model, rain attenuation, rain cell ratio technique.

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Authors: Mahmoud R. Shaghaghian

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Amount of dissolve oxygen in a river has a great direct affect on aquatic macroinvertebrates and this would influence on the region ecosystem indirectly. In this paper it is tried to predict dissolved oxygen in rivers by employing an easy Fuzzy Logic Modeling, Wang Mendel method. This model just uses previous records to estimate upcoming values. For this purpose daily and hourly records of eight stations in Au Sable watershed in Michigan, United States are employed for 12 years and 50 days period respectively. Calculations indicate that for long period prediction it is better to increase input intervals. But for filling missed data it is advisable to decrease the interval. Increasing partitioning of input and output features influence a little on accuracy but make the model too time consuming. Increment in number of input data also act like number of partitioning. Large amount of train data does not modify accuracy essentially, so, an optimum training length should be selected.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Au Sable, fuzzy logic modeling, Wang Mendel.

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Authors: Arpita Soni, Sapna Mittal

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Austenite and Martensite indicate the phases of solids undergoing phase transformation which we usually associate with materials and not with living organisms. This article provides an overview of bacterial proteins and structures that are undergoing phase transformation and suggests its probable effect on mechanical behavior. The context is mainly within the role of phase transformations occurring in the flagellum of bacteria. The current knowledge of molecular mechanism leading to phase variation in living organisms is reviewed. Since in bacteria, each flagellum is driven by a separate motor, similarity to a Differential drive in case of four-wheeled vehicles is suggested. It also suggests the application of the mechanism in which bacteria changes its direction of movement to facilitate single point turning of a multi-wheeled vehicle. Finally, examples are presented to illustrate that the motion due to phase transformation of flagella in bacteria can start a whole new research on motion mechanisms.

Keywords: Flagella, Phase Transformation, Nanobots, Differential Drive, Single point turn, Biomimetics

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Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: Creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures.

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Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

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Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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Authors: O. Belalia Douma, B. Boukhatem, M. Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, superplasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: Self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Rafał Adamczak

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State-of-the-art methods for secondary structure (Porter, Psi-PRED, SAM-T99sec, Sable) and solvent accessibility (Sable, ACCpro) predictions use evolutionary profiles represented by the position specific scoring matrix (PSSM). It has been demonstrated that evolutionary profiles are the most important features in the feature space for these predictions. Unfortunately applying PSSM matrix leads to high dimensional feature spaces that may create problems with parameter optimization and generalization. Several recently published suggested that applying feature extraction for the PSSM matrix may result in improvements in secondary structure predictions. However, none of the top performing methods considered here utilizes dimensionality reduction to improve generalization. In the present study, we used simple and fast methods for features selection (t-statistics, information gain) that allow us to decrease the dimensionality of PSSM matrix by 75% and improve generalization in the case of secondary structure prediction compared to the Sable server.

Keywords: Secondary structure prediction, feature selection, position specific scoring matrix.

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Authors: Pinfa Boonrong, Boonserm Kaewkamnerdpong

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As nanotechnology advances, the use of nanotechnology for medical purposes in the field of nanomedicine seems more promising; the rise of nanorobots for medical diagnostics and treatments could be arriving in the near future. This study proposes a swarm intelligence based control mechanism for swarm nanorobots that operate as artificial platelets to search for wounds. The canonical particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed in this study. A simulation in the circulatory system is constructed and used for demonstrating the movement of nanorobots with essential characteristics to examine the performance of proposed control mechanism. The effects of three nanorobot capabilities including their perception range, maximum velocity and respond time are investigated. The results show that canonical particle swarm optimization can be used to control the early version nanorobots with simple behaviors and actions.

Keywords: Artificial platelets, canonical particle swarm optimization, nanomedicine, nanorobot, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Majid Mirzaei, Saeid Samiezadeh , Abbas Khodadadi, Mohammad R. Ghazavi

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This paper presents a novel method for prediction of the mechanical behavior of proximal femur using the general framework of the quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-based finite element Analysis (FEA). A systematic imaging and modeling procedure was developed for reliable correspondence between the QCT-based FEA and the in-vitro mechanical testing. A speciallydesigned holding frame was used to define and maintain a unique geometrical reference system during the analysis and testing. The QCT images were directly converted into voxel-based 3D finite element models for linear and nonlinear analyses. The equivalent plastic strain and the strain energy density measures were used to identify the critical elements and predict the failure patterns. The samples were destructively tested using a specially-designed gripping fixture (with five degrees of freedom) mounted within a universal mechanical testing machine. Very good agreements were found between the experimental and the predicted failure patterns and the associated load levels.

Keywords: Bone, Osteoporosis, Noninvasive methods, Failure Analysis

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Authors: Mona Almansoori, Ahmed Mustafa, Ahmad Elshamy

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Wireless sensor network was formed by a combination of nodes, systematically it transmitting the data to their base stations, this transmission data can be easily compromised if the limited processing power and the data consistency from these nodes are kept in mind; there is always a discussion to address the secure data transfer or transmission in actual time. This will present a mechanism to securely transmit the data over a chain of sensor nodes without compromising the throughput of the network by utilizing available battery resources available in the sensor node. Our methodology takes many different advantages of Z-MAC protocol for its efficiency, and it provides a unique key by sharing the mechanism using neighbor node MAC address. We present a light weighted data integrity layer which is embedded in the Z-MAC protocol to prove that our protocol performs well than Z-MAC when we introduce the different attack scenarios.

Keywords: Hybrid MAC protocol, data integrity, lightweight encryption, Neighbor based key sharing, Sensor node data processing, Z-MAC.

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

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In order to explain the damping mechanism, related to the hunting motion of the wheel axle of a high-speed railway vehicle, a generalized dynamic model is proposed. Based on such model, analytic expressions for the damping coefficient and damped natural frequency are derived, without imposing restrictions on the ratio between the lateral and vertical creep coefficients. Influence of the travelling speed, wheel conicity, dimensionless mass of the wheel axle, ratio of the creep coefficients, ratio of the track span to the yawing diameter, etc. on the damping coefficient and damped natural frequency, is clarified.

Keywords: High-speed railway vehicle, hunting motion, wheel axle, damping, creep, vibration model, analysis.

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Authors: Dhananjay C. Joshi, Jung-Hsin Lin

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Protein-protein interactions (PPI) play a crucial role in many biological processes such as cell signalling, transcription, translation, replication, signal transduction, and drug targeting, etc. Structural information about protein-protein interaction is essential for understanding the molecular mechanisms of these processes. Structures of protein-protein complexes are still difficult to obtain by biophysical methods such as NMR and X-ray crystallography, and therefore protein-protein docking computation is considered an important approach for understanding protein-protein interactions. However, reliable prediction of the protein-protein complexes is still under way. In the past decades, several grid-based docking algorithms based on the Katchalski-Katzir scoring scheme were developed, e.g., FTDock, ZDOCK, HADDOCK, RosettaDock, HEX, etc. However, the success rate of protein-protein docking prediction is still far from ideal. In this work, we first propose a more practical measure for evaluating the success of protein-protein docking predictions,the rate of first success (RFS), which is similar to the concept of mean first passage time (MFPT). Accordingly, we have assessed the ZDOCK bound and unbound benchmarks 2.0 and 3.0. We also createda new benchmark set for protein-protein docking predictions, in which the complexes have experimentally determined binding affinity data. We performed free energy calculation based on the solution of non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation (nlPBE) to improve the binding mode prediction. We used the well-studied thebarnase-barstarsystem to validate the parameters for free energy calculations. Besides,thenlPBE-based free energy calculations were conducted for the badly predicted cases by ZDOCK and ZRANK. We found that direct molecular mechanics energetics cannot be used to discriminate the native binding pose from the decoys.Our results indicate that nlPBE-based calculations appeared to be one of the promising approaches for improving the success rate of binding pose predictions.

Keywords: protein-protein docking, protein-protein interaction, molecular mechanics energetics, Poisson-Boltzmann calculations

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

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Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: Watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction.

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Authors: Akram M. Othman, May H. Riadh

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This research work is aimed at speech recognition using scaly neural networks. A small vocabulary of 11 words were established first, these words are “word, file, open, print, exit, edit, cut, copy, paste, doc1, doc2". These chosen words involved with executing some computer functions such as opening a file, print certain text document, cutting, copying, pasting, editing and exit. It introduced to the computer then subjected to feature extraction process using LPC (linear prediction coefficients). These features are used as input to an artificial neural network in speaker dependent mode. Half of the words are used for training the artificial neural network and the other half are used for testing the system; those are used for information retrieval. The system components are consist of three parts, speech processing and feature extraction, training and testing by using neural networks and information retrieval. The retrieve process proved to be 79.5-88% successful, which is quite acceptable, considering the variation to surrounding, state of the person, and the microphone type.

Keywords: Feature extraction, Liner prediction coefficients, neural network, Speech Recognition, Scaly ANN.

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Authors: Woo-tai Jung, Sung-yong Choi, Young-hwan Park

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The composite pavement system considered in this paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer. The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.

Keywords: Creep, Lean concrete, Pavement, Fiber reinforced concrete, Base.

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Authors: Woo-Tai Jung, Sung-Yong Choi, Young-Hwan Park

Abstract:

The composite pavement system considered in this paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer. The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.

Keywords: Creep, Lean concrete, Pavement, Fiber reinforced concrete, Base.

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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Authors: Ana Vieira, Fernando Lau, João Pedro Mortágua, Luís Cruz, Rui Santos

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The air transport impact on environment is more than ever a limitative obstacle to the aeronautical industry continuous growth. Over the last decades, considerable effort has been carried out in order to obtain quieter aircraft solutions, whether by changing the original design or investigating more silent maneuvers. The noise propagated by rotating surfaces is one of the most important sources of annoyance, being present in most aerial vehicles. Bearing this is mind, CEIIA developed a new computational chain for noise prediction with in-house software tools to obtain solutions in relatively short time without using excessive computer resources. This work is based on the new acoustic tool, which aims to predict the rotor noise generated during steady and maneuvering flight, making use of the flexibility of the C language and the advantages of GPU programming in terms of velocity. The acoustic tool is based in the Formulation 1A of Farassat, capable of predicting two important types of noise: the loading and thickness noise. The present work describes the most important features of the acoustic tool, presenting its most relevant results and framework analyses for helicopters and UAV quadrotors.

Keywords: Rotor noise, acoustic tool, GPU Programming, UAV noise.

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

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This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: S. A. Nta, M. J. Ayotamuno, A. H. Igoni, R. N. Okparanma

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The work sought to understand the pattern of movement of contaminant from a continuous point source through soil. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was municipal solid waste landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point located at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Analyses were conducted after maturity periods of 50 and 80 days. The maximum change in chemical concentration was observed on soil samples at a radial distance of 0.25 m. Finite element approximation based model was used to assess the future prediction, management and remediation in the polluted area. The actual field data collected for the case study were used to calibrate the modeling and thus simulated the flow pattern of the pollutants through soil. MATLAB R2015a was used to visualize the flow of pollutant through the soil. Dispersion coefficient at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance from the point of application of leachate shows a measure of the spreading of a flowing leachate due to the nature of the soil medium, with its interconnected channels distributed at random in all directions. Surface plots of metals on soil after maturity period of 80 days shows a functional relationship between a designated dependent variable (Y), and two independent variables (X and Z). Comparison of measured and predicted profile transport along the depth after 50 and 80 days of leachate application and end of the experiment shows that there were no much difference between the predicted and measured concentrations as they were all lying close to each other. For the analysis of contaminant transport, finite difference approximation based model was very effective in assessing the future prediction, management and remediation in the polluted area. The experiment gave insight into the most likely pattern of movement of contaminant as a result of continuous percolations of the leachate on soil. This is important for contaminant movement prediction and subsequent remediation of such soils.

Keywords: Contaminant, dispersion, point or leaky source, surface plot, soil.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: M. O. Welcome, Y. E. Razvodovsky, E. V. Pereverzeva, V. A. Pereverzev

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The error monitoring and processing system, EMPS is the system located in the substantia nigra of the midbrain, basal ganglia and cortex of the forebrain, and plays a leading role in error detection and correction. The main components of EMPS are the dopaminergic system and anterior cingulate cortex. Although, recent studies show that alcohol disrupts the EMPS, the ways in which alcohol affects this system are poorly understood. Based on current literature data, here we suggest a hypothesis of alcohol-related glucose-dependent system of error monitoring and processing, which holds that the disruption of the EMPS is related to the competency of glucose homeostasis regulation, which in turn may determine the dopamine level as a major component of EMPS. Alcohol may indirectly disrupt the EMPS by affecting dopamine level through disorders in blood glucose homeostasis regulation.

Keywords: Alcohol related disruption, Error monitoring andprocessing system, Mechanism.

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Authors: G.A.C.P. Ganegoda, D.M.A. Samaranayake, L.S. Bandara, K.A.D.N.K. Wimalawarne

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With the popularity of the multi-core and many-core architectures there is a great requirement for software frameworks which can support parallel programming methodologies. In this paper we introduce an Eclipse toolkit, JConqurr which is easy to use and provides robust support for flexible parallel progrmaming. JConqurr is a multi-core and many-core programming toolkit for Java which is capable of providing support for common parallel programming patterns which include task, data, divide and conquer and pipeline parallelism. The toolkit uses an annotation and a directive mechanism to convert the sequential code into parallel code. In addition to that we have proposed a novel mechanism to achieve the parallelism using graphical processing units (GPU). Experiments with common parallelizable algorithms have shown that our toolkit can be easily and efficiently used to convert sequential code to parallel code and significant performance gains can be achieved.

Keywords: Multi-core, parallel programming patterns, GPU, Java, Eclipse plugin, toolkit,

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

In this work, effects of the friction and truncation on the dynamics of a double-cone gravitational motor, self-propelled on a straight V-shaped horizontal rail, are evaluated. Such mechanism has a variable radius of contact, and, on one hand, it is similar to a pulley mechanism that changes the potential energy into the kinetic energy of rotation, but on the other hand, it is similar to a pendulum mechanism that converts the potential energy of the suspended body into the kinetic energy of translation along a circular path. Movies of the self- propelled double-cones, made of S45C carbon steel and wood, along rails made of aluminum alloy, were shot for various opening angles of the rails. Kinematical features of the double-cones were estimated through the slow-motion processing of the recorded movies. Then, a kinematical model is derived under assumption that the distance traveled by the contact points on the rectilinear rails is identical with the distance traveled by the contact points on the truncated conical surface. Additionally, a dynamic model, for this particular contact problem, was proposed and validated against the experimental results. Based on such model, the traction force and the traction torque acting on the double-cone are identified. One proved that the rolling traction force is always smaller than the sliding friction force; i.e., the double-cone is rolling without slipping. Results obtained in this work can be used to achieve the proper design of such gravitational motor.

Keywords: Truncated double-cone, friction, rolling and sliding, dynamic model, gravitational motor.

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Authors: Roman Novak, Matjaz Vencelj

Abstract:

The angular distribution of Compton scattering of two quanta originating in the annihilation of a positron with an electron is investigated as a quantum key distribution (QKD) mechanism in the gamma spectral range. The geometry of coincident Compton scattering is observed on the two sides as a way to obtain partially correlated readings on the quantum channel. We derive the noise probability density function of a conceptually equivalent prepare and measure quantum channel in order to evaluate the limits of the concept in terms of the device secrecy capacity and estimate it at roughly 1.9 bits per 1 000 annihilation events. The high error rate is well above the tolerable error rates of the common reconciliation protocols; therefore, the proposed key agreement protocol by public discussion requires key reconciliation using classical error-correcting codes. We constructed a prototype device based on the readily available monolithic detectors in the least complex setup.

Keywords: Compton scattering, gamma-ray polarization, quantumcryptography, quantum key distribution

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