Search results for: Exponential distribution

Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

Abstract:

Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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Authors: Khosrow Maleknejad, Reza Mollapourasl, Parvin Torabi, Mahdiyeh Alizadeh,

Abstract:

Sinc-collocation scheme is one of the new techniques used in solving numerical problems involving integral equations. This method has been shown to be a powerful numerical tool for finding fast and accurate solutions. So, in this paper, some properties of the Sinc-collocation method required for our subsequent development are given and are utilized to reduce integral equation of the first kind to some algebraic equations. Then convergence with exponential rate is proved by a theorem to guarantee applicability of numerical technique. Finally, numerical examples are included to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the technique.

Keywords: Integral equation, Fredholm type, Collocation method, Sinc approximation.

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Authors: Promise A. Azor, Avievie Igodo, Esabai M. Ase

Abstract:

The paper merged the return of premium clause and voluntary contributions to investigate retirees’ investment plan in a defined contributory (DC) pension scheme with a portfolio comprising of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The paper considers additional voluntary contributions paid by members, charge on balance by pension fund administrators and the mortality risk of members of the scheme during the accumulation period by introducing return of premium clause. To achieve this, the Weilbull mortality force function is used to establish the mortality rate of members during accumulation phase. Furthermore, an optimization problem from the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is obtained using dynamic programming approach. Also, the Legendre transformation method is used to transform the HJB equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation to a linear partial differential equation and solves the resultant equation for the value function and the optimal distribution plan under logarithm utility function. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of some important parameters on the optimal distribution plan were obtained and it was observed that the optimal distribution plan is inversely proportional to the initial fund size, predetermined interest rate, additional voluntary contributions, charge on balance and instantaneous volatility.

Keywords: Legendre transform, logarithm utility, optimal distribution plan, return clause of premium, charge on balance, Weibull mortality function.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

Abstract:

Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

Optimal selection of electrical insulations in electrical machinery insures reliability during operation. From the insulation studies of view for electrical machines, stator is the most important part. This fact reveals the requirement for inspection of the electrical machine insulation along with the electro-thermal stresses. In the first step of the study, a part of the whole structure of machine in which covers the general characteristics of the machine is chosen, then based on the electromagnetic analysis (finite element method), the machine operation is simulated. In the simulation results, the temperature distribution of the total structure is presented simultaneously by using electro-thermal analysis. The results of electro-thermal analysis can be used for designing an optimal cooling system. In order to design, review and comparing the cooling systems, four wiring structures in the slots of Stator are presented. The structures are compared to each other in terms of electrical, thermal distribution and remaining life of insulation by using Finite Element analysis. According to the steps of the study, an optimization algorithm has been presented for selection of appropriate structure.

Keywords: Electrical field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method, electro thermal

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Authors: A. Jamekhorshid, G. Karimi, I. Noshadi, A. Jahangiri

Abstract:

Non-uniform current distribution in polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells results in local over-heating, accelerated ageing, and lower power output than expected. This issue is very critical when fuel cell experiences water flooding. In this work, the performance of a PEM fuel cell is investigated under cathode flooding conditions. Two-dimensional partially flooded GDL models based on the conservation laws and electrochemical relations are proposed to study local current density distributions along flow fields over a wide range of cell operating conditions. The model results show a direct association between cathode inlet humidity increases and that of average current density but the system becomes more sensitive to flooding. The anode inlet relative humidity shows a similar effect. Operating the cell at higher temperatures would lead to higher average current densities and the chance of system being flooded is reduced. In addition, higher cathode stoichiometries prevent system flooding but the average current density remains almost constant. The higher anode stoichiometry leads to higher average current density and higher sensitivity to cathode flooding.

Keywords: Current distribution, Flooding, Hydrogen energysystem, PEM fuel cell.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle, Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

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Authors: J.H. Park, S. Lakshmanan, H.Y. Jung, S.M. Lee

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the delay-distributiondependent stability criteria for bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approach, a delay-probability-distribution-dependent sufficient condition is derived to achieve the globally asymptotically mean square stable of the considered BAM neural networks. The criteria are formulated in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked efficiently by use of some standard numerical packages. Finally, a numerical example and its simulation is given to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed results.

Keywords: BAM neural networks, Probabilistic time-varying delays, Stability criteria.

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Authors: Aylin Alin

Abstract:

In this paper, penalized power-divergence test statistics have been defined and their exact size properties to test a nested sequence of log-linear models have been compared with ordinary power-divergence test statistics for various penalization, λ and main effect values. Since the ordinary and penalized power-divergence test statistics have the same asymptotic distribution, comparisons have been only made for small and moderate samples. Three-way contingency tables distributed according to a multinomial distribution have been considered. Simulation results reveal that penalized power-divergence test statistics perform much better than their ordinary counterparts.

Keywords: Contingency table, Log-linear models, Penalization, Power-divergence measure, Penalized power-divergence measure.

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Authors: C. Iraklis, G. Evmiridis, A. Iraklis

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources and distributed power generation units already have an important role in electrical power generation. A mixture of different technologies penetrating the electrical grid, adds complexity in the management of distribution networks. High penetration of distributed power generation units creates node over-voltages, huge power losses, unreliable power management, reverse power flow and congestion. This paper presents an optimization algorithm capable of reducing congestion and power losses, both described as a function of weighted sum. Two factors that describe congestion are being proposed. An upgraded selective particle swarm optimization algorithm (SPSO) is used as a solution tool focusing on the technique of network reconfiguration. The upgraded SPSO algorithm is achieved with the addition of a heuristic algorithm specializing in reduction of power losses, with several scenarios being tested. Results show significant improvement in minimization of losses and congestion while achieving very small calculation times.

Keywords: Congestion, distribution networks, loss reduction, particle swarm optimization, smart grid.

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Authors: Longqiao Zhou, Zixin Liu, Shu Lü

Abstract:

This paper addresses the robust stability problem of a class of delayed neutral Lur’e systems. Combined with the property of convex function and double integral Jensen inequality, a new tripe integral Lyapunov functional is constructed to derive some new stability criteria. Compared with some related results, the new criteria established in this paper are less conservative. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.

Keywords: Lur’e system, Convex function, Jensen integral inequality, Triple-integral method, Exponential stability.

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Authors: N. Norazlimi, R. Ramli

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the diversity and abundance of shorebird species habituating the mudflat area of Jeram Beach and Remis Beach, Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia. Direct observation technique (using binoculars and video camera) was applied to record the presence of bird species in the sampling sites from August 2013 until July 2014. A total of 32 species of shorebird were recorded during both migratory and non-migratory seasons. Of these, eleven species (48%) are migrants, six species (26%) have both migrant and resident populations, four species (17%) are vagrants and two species (9%) are residents. The compositions of the birds differed significantly in all months (χ2 = 84.35, p < 0.001). There is a significant difference in avian abundance between migratory and non-migratory seasons (Mann-Whitney, t = 2.39, p = 0.036). The avian abundance were differed significantly in Jeram and Remis Beaches during migratory periods (t = 4.39, p = 0.001) but not during non-migratory periods (t = 0.78, p = 0.456). Shorebird diversity was also affected by tidal cycle. There is a significance difference between high tide and low tide (Mann-Whitney, t = 78.0, p < 0.005). Frequency of disturbance also affected the shorebird distribution (Mann-Whitney, t = 57.0, p = 0.0134). Therefore, this study concluded that tides and disturbances are two factors that affecting temporal distribution of shorebird in mudflats area.

Keywords: Biodiversity, distribution, migratory birds, direct observation.

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Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

Abstract:

In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: Bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: Residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Yanping Liao, Zenan Wu, Ruigang Zhao

Abstract:

Frequency diverse array (FDA) beamforming is a technology developed in recent years, and its antenna pattern has a unique angle-distance-dependent characteristic. However, the beam is always required to have strong concentration, high resolution and low sidelobe level to form the point-to-point interference in the concentrated set. In order to eliminate the angle-distance coupling of the traditional FDA and to make the beam energy more concentrated, this paper adopts a multi-carrier FDA structure based on proposed power exponential frequency offset to improve the array structure and frequency offset of the traditional FDA. The simulation results show that the beam pattern of the array can form a dot-shape beam with more concentrated energy, and its resolution and sidelobe level performance are improved. However, the covariance matrix of the signal in the traditional adaptive beamforming algorithm is estimated by the finite-time snapshot data. When the number of snapshots is limited, the algorithm has an underestimation problem, which leads to the estimation error of the covariance matrix to cause beam distortion, so that the output pattern cannot form a dot-shape beam. And it also has main lobe deviation and high sidelobe level problems in the case of limited snapshot. Aiming at these problems, an adaptive beamforming technique based on exponential correction for multi-carrier FDA is proposed to improve beamforming robustness. The steps are as follows: first, the beamforming of the multi-carrier FDA is formed under linear constrained minimum variance (LCMV) criteria. Then the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix is ​​performed to obtain the diagonal matrix composed of the interference subspace, the noise subspace and the corresponding eigenvalues. Finally, the correction index is introduced to exponentially correct the small eigenvalues ​​of the noise subspace, improve the divergence of small eigenvalues ​​in the noise subspace, and improve the performance of beamforming. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can make the multi-carrier FDA form a dot-shape beam at limited snapshots, reduce the sidelobe level, improve the robustness of beamforming, and have better performance.

Keywords: Multi-carrier frequency diverse array, adaptive beamforming, correction index, limited snapshot, robust.

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Authors: K. Al-Heuseen, M. R. Hashim

Abstract:

The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of Pd/n-GaN Schottky barrier were studied at temperatures over room temperature (300-470K). The values of ideality factor (n), zero-bias barrier height (φB0), flat barrier height (φBF) and series resistance (Rs) obtained from I-V-T measurements were found to be strongly temperature dependent while (φBo) increase, (n), (φBF) and (Rs) decrease with increasing temperature. The apparent Richardson constant was found to be 2.1x10-9 Acm-2K-2 and mean barrier height of 0.19 eV. After barrier height inhomogeneities correction, by assuming a Gaussian distribution (GD) of the barrier heights, the Richardson constant and the mean barrier height were obtained as 23 Acm-2K-2 and 1.78eV, respectively. The corrected Richardson constant was very closer to theoretical value of 26 Acm-2K-2. 

Keywords: Electrical properties, Gaussian distribution, Pd-GaN Schottky diodes, thermionic emission.

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Authors: P. Vaculík, P. Kaňovský

Abstract:

The following article presents Technology Centre of Ostrava (TCO) in the Czech Republic describing the structure and main research areas realized by the project ENET - Energy Units for Utilization of non Traditional Energy Sources. More details are presented from the research program dealing with transformation, accumulation and distribution of electric energy. Technology Centre has its own energy mix consisting of alternative sources of fuel sources that use of process gases from the storage part and also the energy from distribution network. The article will be focus on the properties and application possibilities SiC semiconductor devices for power semiconductor converter for photovoltaic systems.

Keywords: SiC, Si, Technology Centre of Ostrava, Photovoltaic Systems, DC/DC Converter, Simulation.

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Authors: R. Kamalakannan, N. Ravi Kumar

Abstract:

Feeder protection is important in transmission and distribution side because if any fault occurs in any feeder or transformer, man power is needed to identify the problem and it will take more time. In the existing system, directional overcurrent elements with load further secured by a load encroachment function can be used to provide necessary security and sensitivity for faults on remote points in a circuit. It is validated only in renewable plant collector circuit protection applications over a wide range of operating conditions. In this method, the directional overcurrent feeder protection is developed by using monitoring of feeder section through internet. In this web based monitoring, the fault and power theft are identified by using Toro dial sensor and its information is received by SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) and controlled by ARM microcontroller. This web based monitoring is also used to monitor the feeder management, directional current detection, demand side management, overload fault. This monitoring system is capable of monitoring the distribution feeder over a large area depending upon the cost. It is also used to reduce the power theft, time and man power. The simulation is done by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Current sensor, distribution feeder protection, directional overcurrent, power theft, protective relay.

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Authors: Yuyun Wabula, B. J. Dewancker

Abstract:

In the past decade, the social networking app has been growing very rapidly. Geolocation data is one of the important features of social media that can attach the user's location coordinate in the real world. This paper proposes the use of geolocation data from the Twitter social media application to gain knowledge about urban dynamics, especially on human mobility behavior. This paper aims to explore the relation between geolocation Twitter with the existence of people in the urban area. Firstly, the study will analyze the spread of people in the particular area, within the city using Twitter social media data. Secondly, we then match and categorize the existing place based on the same individuals visiting. Then, we combine the Twitter data from the tracking result and the questionnaire data to catch the Twitter user profile. To do that, we used the distribution frequency analysis to learn the visitors’ percentage. To validate the hypothesis, we compare it with the local population statistic data and land use mapping released by the city planning department of Makassar local government. The results show that there is the correlation between Twitter geolocation and questionnaire data. Thus, integration the Twitter data and survey data can reveal the profile of the social media users.

Keywords: Geolocation, Twitter, distribution analysis, human mobility.

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Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

Abstract:

Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: Power Quality Disturbances, Power Quality Evaluation, Statistical Analysis.

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Authors: Yongzhi Liao

Abstract:

By using the theory of exponential dichotomy and Banach fixed point theorem, this paper is concerned with the problem of the existence and uniqueness of positive almost periodic solution in a delayed Lotka-Volterra recurrent neural networks with harvesting terms. To a certain extent, our work in this paper corrects some result in recent years. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the main result.

Keywords: positive almost periodic solution, Lotka-Volterra, neural networks, Banach fixed point theorem, harvesting

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Authors: Juan Blas, Alfonso Bahillo, Santiago Mazuelas, David Bullido, Patricia Fernandez, Ruben M. Lorenzo, Evaristo J. Abril

Abstract:

This paper presents a low cost automatic system for sampling the electric field in a limited area. The scanning area is a flat surface parallel to the ground at a selected height. We discuss in detail the hardware, software and all the arrangements involved in the system operation. In order to show the system performance we include a campaign of narrow band measurements with 6017 sample points in the surroundings of a cellular base station. A commercial isotropic antenna with three orthogonal axes was used as sampling device. The results are analyzed in terms of its space average, standard deviation and statistical distribution.

Keywords: measurement device, propagation, spatial sampling.

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Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

Abstract:

Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: Air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature.

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Authors: N. Rezaee, M Nayeripour, A. Roosta, T. Niknam

Abstract:

With the prevalence of computer and development of information technology, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have long used for a variety of applications in electrical engineering. GIS are designed to support the analysis, management, manipulation and mapping of spatial data. This paper presents several usages of GIS in power utilities such as automated route selection for the construction of new power lines which uses a dynamic programming model for route optimization, load forecasting and optimizing planning of substation-s location and capacity with comprehensive algorithm which involves an accurate small-area electric load forecasting procedure and simulates the different cost functions of substations.

Keywords: Geographic information systems (GIS), optimallocation and capacity, power distribution planning, route selection, spatial load forecasting.

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

Abstract:

Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution.

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Authors: J. Levendovszky, I. Koncz, P. Boros

Abstract:

The paper is concerned with developing stochastic delay mechanisms for efficient multicast protocols and for smooth mobile handover processes which are capable of preserving a given Quality of Service (QoS). In both applications the participating entities (receiver nodes or subscribers) sample a stochastic timer and generate load after a random delay. In this way, the load on the networking resources is evenly distributed which helps to maintain QoS communication. The optimal timer distributions have been sought in different p.d.f. families (e.g. exponential, power law and radial basis function) and the optimal parameter have been found in a recursive manner. Detailed simulations have demonstrated the improvement in performance both in the case of multicast and mobile handover applications.

Keywords: Multicast communication, stochactic delay mechanisms.

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Authors: S. Anna Durai, E. Anna Saro

Abstract:

Image Compression using Artificial Neural Networks is a topic where research is being carried out in various directions towards achieving a generalized and economical network. Feedforward Networks using Back propagation Algorithm adopting the method of steepest descent for error minimization is popular and widely adopted and is directly applied to image compression. Various research works are directed towards achieving quick convergence of the network without loss of quality of the restored image. In general the images used for compression are of different types like dark image, high intensity image etc. When these images are compressed using Back-propagation Network, it takes longer time to converge. The reason for this is, the given image may contain a number of distinct gray levels with narrow difference with their neighborhood pixels. If the gray levels of the pixels in an image and their neighbors are mapped in such a way that the difference in the gray levels of the neighbors with the pixel is minimum, then compression ratio as well as the convergence of the network can be improved. To achieve this, a Cumulative distribution function is estimated for the image and it is used to map the image pixels. When the mapped image pixels are used, the Back-propagation Neural Network yields high compression ratio as well as it converges quickly.

Keywords: Back-propagation Neural Network, Cumulative Distribution Function, Correlation, Convergence.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

Abstract:

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: Zhuomin Zou, Thijs Van Landeghem, Elke Gruyaert

Abstract:

Using supplementary cementitious materials, such as ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBFS) and limestone to replace Portland cement (PC) is a promising method to reduce the carbon emissions from cement production. To efficiently use GGBFS and limestone, it is necessary to carefully select the particle size distribution (PSD) of the binders. This study investigated the effects of the PSD of binders on the performance of slag-limestone ternary cement. Based on the PSD parameters of the binders, three types of ternary cements with a similar overall PSD were designed, i.e., No.1 fine GGBFS, medium PC, and coarse limestone; No.2 fine limestone, medium PC, and coarse GGBFS; No.3. fine PC, medium GGBFS, and coarse limestone. The binder contents in the ternary cements were 50% PC, 40% slag, and 10% limestone. The mortar performance of the three ternary cements was investigated in terms of flow table value, strength at 28 days, carbonation resistance and non-steady state chloride migration resistance at 28 days. Results show that ternary cement with fine limestone (No.2) has the weakest performance among the three ternary cements. Ternary cements with fine slag (No.1) show an overall comparable performance to ternary cement with fine PC (No.3). Moreover, the chloride migration coefficient of ternary cements with fine slag (No.1) is significantly lower than the other two ternary cements.

Keywords: Limestone, particle size distribution, slag, ternary cement.

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Authors: Yingxin He, Kyouichi Tatsuno

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an architecture for easily constructing a robot controller. The architecture is a multi-agent system which has eight agents: the Man-machine interface, Task planner, Task teaching editor, Motion planner, Arm controller, Vehicle controller, Vision system and CG display. The controller has three databases: the Task knowledge database, the Robot database and the Environment database. Based on this controller architecture, we are constructing an experimental power distribution line maintenance robot system and are doing the experiment for the maintenance tasks, for example, “Bolt insertion task".

Keywords: Robot controller, Software library, Maintenance robot, Robot language, Agent system.

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