Search results for: time series models

Authors: M. Madiajagan, B. Vijayakumar

Abstract:

The ability of information systems to operate in conjunction with each other encompassing communication protocols, hardware, software, application, and data compatibility layers. There has been considerable work in industry on the development of component interoperability models, such as CORBA, (D)COM and JavaBeans. These models are intended to reduce the complexity of software development and to facilitate reuse of off-the-shelf components. The focus of these models is syntactic interface specification, component packaging, inter-component communications, and bindings to a runtime environment. What these models lack is a consideration of architectural concerns – specifying systems of communicating components, explicitly representing loci of component interaction, and exploiting architectural styles that provide well-understood global design solutions. The development of complex business applications is now focused on an assembly of components available on a local area network or on the net. These components must be localized and identified in terms of available services and communication protocol before any request. The first part of the article introduces the base concepts of components and middleware while the following sections describe the different up-todate models of communication and interaction and the last section shows how different models can communicate among themselves.

Keywords: Interoperability, component packaging, communication technology, heterogeneous platform, component interface, middleware.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: D. Lingaraju, K. Ramji, M. Pramiladevi, U. Rajyalakshmi

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Exploding concentrated underwater charges to damage underwater structures such as ship hulls is a part of naval warfare strategies. Adding small amounts of foreign particles (like clay or silica) of nanosize significantly improves the engineering properties of the polymers. In the present work the clay in terms 1, 2 and 3 percent by weight was surface treated with a suitable silane agent. The hybrid nanocomposite was prepared by the hand lay-up technique. Mathematical regression models have been employed for theoretical prediction. This will result in considerable savings in terms of project time, effort and cost.

Keywords: ANOVA, clay, halloysite, nanocomposites, underwater shock, regression, silica.

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Authors: Adil Salam, Nadia Bhuiyan, Gerard J. Gouw

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The Canadian aerospace industry faces many challenges. One of them is the difficulty in estimating costs. In particular, the design effort required in a project impacts resource requirements and lead-time, and consequently the final cost. This paper presents the findings of a case study conducted for recognized global leader in the design and manufacturing of aircraft engines. The study models parametric cost estimation relationships to estimate the design effort of integrated blade-rotor low-pressure compressor fans. Several effort drivers are selected to model the relationship. Comparative analyses of three types of models are conducted. The model with the best accuracy and significance in design estimation is retained.

Keywords: Effort estimation, design, aerospace.

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Authors: S. Cagin, X. Fischer, E. Delacourt, N. Bourabaa, C. Morin, D. Coutellier, B. Carré, S. Loumé

Abstract:

The complexity of scavenging by ports and its impact on engine efficiency create the need to understand and to model it as realistically as possible. However, there are few empirical scavenging models and these are highly specialized. In a design optimization process, they appear very restricted and their field of use is limited. This paper presents a comparison of two methods to establish and reduce a model of the scavenging process in 2-stroke diesel engines. To solve the lack of scavenging models, a CFD model has been developed and is used as the referent case. However, its large size requires a reduction. Two techniques have been tested depending on their fields of application: The NTF method and neural networks. They both appear highly appropriate drastically reducing the model’s size (over 90% reduction) with a low relative error rate (under 10%). Furthermore, each method produces a reduced model which can be used in distinct specialized fields of application: the distribution of a quantity (mass fraction for example) in the cylinder at each time step (pseudo-dynamic model) or the qualification of scavenging at the end of the process (pseudo-static model).

Keywords: Diesel engine, Design optimization, Model reduction, Neural network, NTF algorithm, Scavenging.

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Authors: S.G.Venkatesh, S.K.Ayyaswamy, G.Hariharan

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In this paper, we present a framework to determine Haar solutions of Bratu-type equations that are widely applicable in fuel ignition of the combustion theory and heat transfer. The method is proposed by applying Haar series for the highest derivatives and integrate the series. Several examples are given to confirm the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The results show that the proposed way is quite reasonable when compared to exact solution.

Keywords: Haar wavelet method, Bratu's problem, boundary value problems, initial value problems, adomain decomposition method.

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Authors: Ricardo Espinosa

Abstract:

The coherent Self-Averaging (CSA), is a new method proposed in this work; applied to simulated signals evoked potentials related to events (ERP) to find the wave P300, useful systems in the brain computer interface (BCI). The CSA method cleans signal in the time domain of white noise through of successive averaging of a single signal. The method is compared with the traditional method, coherent averaging or synchronized (CA), showing optimal results in the improvement of the signal to noise ratio (SNR). The method of CSA is easy to implement, robust and applicable to any physiological time series contaminated with white noise

Keywords: Evoked potentials, wave P300, Coherent Self-averaging, brain - computer interface (BCI).

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Authors: D. Mondal, A. Chakrabarti, A. Sengupta

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This paper aims to select the optimal location and setting parameters of TCSC (Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator) controller using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to mitigate small signal oscillations in a multimachine power system. Though Power System Stabilizers (PSSs) are prime choice in this issue, installation of FACTS device has been suggested here in order to achieve appreciable damping of system oscillations. However, performance of any FACTS devices highly depends upon its parameters and suitable location in the power network. In this paper PSO as well as GA based techniques are used separately and compared their performances to investigate this problem. The results of small signal stability analysis have been represented employing eigenvalue as well as time domain response in face of two common power system disturbances e.g., varying load and transmission line outage. It has been revealed that the PSO based TCSC controller is more effective than GA based controller even during critical loading condition.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Small Signal Stability, Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator.

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Authors: S. Grishin

Abstract:

This article is dedicated to development of mathematical models for determining the dynamics of concentration of hazardous substances in urban turbulent atmosphere. Development of the mathematical models implied taking into account the time-space variability of the fields of meteorological items and such turbulent atmosphere data as vortex nature, nonlinear nature, dissipativity and diffusivity. Knowing the turbulent airflow velocity is not assumed when developing the model. However, a simplified model implies that the turbulent and molecular diffusion ratio is a piecewise constant function that changes depending on vertical distance from the earth surface. Thereby an important assumption of vertical stratification of urban air due to atmospheric accumulation of hazardous substances emitted by motor vehicles is introduced into the mathematical model. The suggested simplified non-linear mathematical model of determining the sought exhaust concentration at a priori unknown turbulent flow velocity through non-degenerate transformation is reduced to the model which is subsequently solved analytically.

Keywords: Urban ecology, time-dependent mathematical model, exhaust concentration, turbulent and molecular diffusion, airflow velocity.

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Authors: Fantazi Walid, Ezzedine Tahar, Bargaoui Zoubeida

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This research presents the main ideas to implement an intelligent system composed by communicating wireless sensors measuring environmental data linked to drought indicators (such as air temperature, soil moisture , etc...). On the other hand, the setting up of a spatio temporal database communicating with a Web mapping application for a monitoring in real time in activity 24:00 /day, 7 days/week is proposed to allow the screening of the drought parameters time evolution and their extraction. Thus this system helps detecting surfaces touched by the phenomenon of drought. Spatio-temporal conceptual models seek to answer the users who need to manage soil water content for irrigating or fertilizing or other activities pursuing crop yield augmentation. Effectively, spatiotemporal conceptual models enable users to obtain a diagram of readable and easy data to apprehend. Based on socio-economic information, it helps identifying people impacted by the phenomena with the corresponding severity especially that this information is accessible by farmers and stakeholders themselves. The study will be applied in Siliana watershed Northern Tunisia.

Keywords: WSN, database spatio-temporal, GIS, web-mapping, indicator of drought.

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: Degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression.

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Authors: H. Hussain, N. H. Mohamad

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Practical experiences have been one of the successful criteria for the Project Management course for the art and design students. There are series of events that the students have to undergo as part of their practical exercises in the learning context for Project Management courses. These series have been divided into few mini programs that involved the whole individual in each group. Therefore, the events have been one of the bench marks for these students. Through the practical experience, the task that has been given to individual has been performed according to the needs of professional practice and ethics.

Keywords: Practical experiences, project management, art and design students, events, programs.

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Authors: Johan Fredin, Anders Jönsson

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Abrasive waterjet cutting (AWJ) is a highly efficient method for cutting almost any type of material. When holes shall be cut the waterjet first needs to pierce the material.This paper presents a vast experimental analysis of piercing parameters effect on piercing time. Results from experimentation on feed rates, work piece thicknesses, abrasive flow rates, standoff distances and water pressure are also presented as well as studies on three methods for dynamic piercing. It is shown that a large amount of time and resources can be saved by choosing the piercing parameters in a correct way. The large number of experiments puts demands on the experimental setup. An automated experimental setup including piercing detection is presented to enable large series of experiments to be carried out efficiently.

Keywords: Waterjet cutting, Piercing, Experimentation

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Authors: In Lee, Kyung-Kyu Kang, Jaewoon Lee, Dongho Kim

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Previous the 3D model texture generation from multi-view images and mapping algorithms has issues in the texture chart generation which are the self-intersection and the concentration of the texture in texture space. Also we may suffer from some problems due to the occluded areas, such as inside parts of thighs. In this paper we propose a texture mapping technique for 3D models using multi-view images on the GPU. We do texture mapping directly on the GPU fragment shader per pixel without generation of the texture map. And we solve for the occluded area using the 3D model depth information. Our method needs more calculation on the GPU than previous works, but it has shown real-time performance and previously mentioned problems do not occur.

Keywords: Texture Mapping, Multi-view Images, Camera Calibration, GPU Shader.

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar Chandra, Kaushal Kishor, Wasim Khan, Dhananjay Singh, M. S. Alam

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Single phase fluid flow through series of uniform microchannels connected via transition section (converging-diverging section with or without throat) was analytically and numerically studied to characterize the flow within the channel and in the transition sections. Three sets of microchannels of diameters 100, 184, and 249 μm were considered for investigation. Each set contains 10 numbers of microchannels of length 20 mm, connected to each other in series via transition sections. Transition section consists of either converging-diverging section with throat or without throat. The effect of non-uniformity in microchannels on pressure drop was determined by passing water/air through the set of channels for Reynolds number 50 to 1000. Compressibility and rarefaction effects in transition sections were also tested analytically and numerically for air flow. The analytical and numerical results show that these configurations can be used in enhancement of transport processes. However, converging-diverging section without throat shows superior performance over with throat configuration.

Keywords: Contraction-expansion flow, integrated microchannel, microchannel network, single phase flow.

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Authors: Xin Bai, Kresimir Sivoncik, Damla Turgut, Ladislau Bölöni

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Market based models are frequently used in the resource allocation on the computational grid. However, as the size of the grid grows, it becomes difficult for the customer to negotiate directly with all the providers. Middle agents are introduced to mediate between the providers and customers and facilitate the resource allocation process. The most frequently deployed middle agents are the matchmakers and the brokers. The matchmaking agent finds possible candidate providers who can satisfy the requirements of the consumers, after which the customer directly negotiates with the candidates. The broker agents are mediating the negotiation with the providers in real time. In this paper we present a new type of middle agent, the marketmaker. Its operation is based on two parallel operations - through the investment process the marketmaker is acquiring resources and resource reservations in large quantities, while through the resale process it sells them to the customers. The operation of the marketmaker is based on the fact that through its global view of the grid it can perform a more efficient resource allocation than the one possible in one-to-one negotiations between the customers and providers. We present the operation and algorithms governing the operation of the marketmaker agent, contrasting it with the matchmaker and broker agents. Through a series of simulations in the task oriented domain we compare the operation of the three agents types. We find that the use of marketmaker agent leads to a better performance in the allocation of large tasks and a significant reduction of the messaging overhead.

Keywords: grid computing, autonomous agents, market-basedgrid

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Authors: Asfaw Gezae Daful

Abstract:

In the present study, two distinctly different approaches are followed for modeling of reactive distillation column, the equilibrium stage model and the nonequilibrium stage model. These models are simulated with a computer code developed in the present study using MATLAB programming. In the equilibrium stage models, the vapor and liquid phases are assumed to be in equilibrium and allowance is made for finite reaction rates, where as in the nonequilibrium stage models simultaneous mass transfer and reaction rates are considered. These simulated model results are validated from the experimental data reported in the literature. The simulated results of equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared for concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles in a reactive distillation column for Methyl Tert Butyle Ether (MTBE) production. Both the models show similar trend for the concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles but the nonequilibrium model predictions are higher and closer to the experimental values reported in the literature.

Keywords: Reactive Distillation, Equilibrium model, Nonequilibrium model, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether

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Authors: S. Hellam, Y. Oulahrir, F. El Mounchid, A. Sadiq, S. Mbarki

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In this paper, we propose a method for three-dimensional (3-D)-model indexing based on defining a new descriptor, which we call new descriptor using spherical harmonics. The purpose of the method is to minimize, the processing time on the database of objects models and the searching time of similar objects to request object. Firstly we start by defining the new descriptor using a new division of 3-D object in a sphere. Then we define a new distance which will be used in the search for similar objects in the database.

Keywords: 3D indexation, spherical harmonic, similarity of 3D objects.

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: Multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

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Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: Aspasia Koutsokosta, Stefanos Katsavounis

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This paper reviews the model-based qualitative and quantitative Operations Management research in the context of Construction Supply Chain Management (CSCM). Construction industry has been traditionally blamed for low productivity, cost and time overruns, waste, high fragmentation and adversarial relationships. The construction industry has been slower than other industries to employ the Supply Chain Management (SCM) concept and develop models that support the decision-making and planning. However the last decade there is a distinct shift from a project-based to a supply-based approach of construction management. CSCM comes up as a new promising management tool of construction operations and improves the performance of construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. Modeling the Construction Supply Chain (CSC) offers the means to reap the benefits of SCM, make informed decisions and gain competitive advantage. Different modeling approaches and methodologies have been applied in the multi-disciplinary and heterogeneous research field of CSCM. The literature review reveals that a considerable percentage of the CSC modeling research accommodates conceptual or process models which present general management frameworks and do not relate to acknowledged soft Operations Research methods. We particularly focus on the model-based quantitative research and categorize the CSCM models depending on their scope, objectives, modeling approach, solution methods and software used. Although over the last few years there has been clearly an increase of research papers on quantitative CSC models, we identify that the relevant literature is very fragmented with limited applications of simulation, mathematical programming and simulation-based optimization. Most applications are project-specific or study only parts of the supply system. Thus, some complex interdependencies within construction are neglected and the implementation of the integrated supply chain management is hindered. We conclude this paper by giving future research directions and emphasizing the need to develop optimization models for integrated CSCM. We stress that CSC modeling needs a multi-dimensional, system-wide and long-term perspective. Finally, prior applications of SCM to other industries have to be taken into account in order to model CSCs, but not without translating the generic concepts to the context of construction industry.

Keywords: Construction supply chain management, modeling, operations research, optimization and simulation.

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Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte

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This paper proposes a bioprocess optimization procedure based on Relevance Vector Regression models and evolutionary programming technique. Relevance Vector Regression scheme allows developing a compact and stable data-based process model avoiding time-consuming modeling expenses. The model building and process optimization procedure could be done in a half-automated way and repeated after every new cultivation run. The proposed technique was tested in a simulated mammalian cell cultivation process. The obtained results are promising and could be attractive for optimization of industrial bioprocesses.

Keywords: Bioprocess optimization, Evolutionary programming, Relevance Vector Regression.

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Authors: S. Pattanapairoj, D. Chetchotsak

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This paper proposed classification models that would be used as a proxy for hard disk drive (HDD) functional test equitant which required approximately more than two weeks to perform the HDD status classification in either “Pass" or “Fail". These models were constructed by using committee network which consisted of a number of single neural networks. This paper also included the method to solve the problem of sparseness data in failed part, which was called “enforce learning method". Our results reveal that the constructed classification models with the proposed method could perform well in the sparse data conditions and thus the models, which used a few seconds for HDD classification, could be used to substitute the HDD functional tests.

Keywords: Sparse data, Classifications, Committee network

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

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In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time.

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Authors: M. T. Sichani, B. J. Pedersen, S. R. K. Nielsen

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Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical cross spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the wind field area is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since the succeeding state space and ARMA modelling of the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.

Keywords: Turbulence, wind turbine, complex coherence, state space modelling, ARMA modelling.

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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Authors: M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Hasan, M. Alauddin, S. Akhter

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Climate change has become a major concern across the world as the intensity along with quantity of the rainfall, mean surface temperature and other climatic parameters have been changed not only in Bangladesh but also in the entire globe. Bangladesh has already experienced many natural hazards. Among them changing of rainfall pattern, erratic and heavy rainfalls are very common. But changes of rainfall pattern and its amount is still in question to some extent. This study aimed to unfold how the historical rainfalls varied over time and how would be their future trends. In this context, historical rainfall data (1975-2014) were collected from Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) and then a time series model was developed using Box-Jenkins algorithm in IBM SPSS to forecast the future rainfall. From the historical data analysis, this study revealed that the amount of rainfall decreased over the time and shifted to the post monsoons. Forecasted rainfall shows that the pre-monsoon and early monsoon will get drier in future whereas late monsoon and post monsoon will show huge fluctuations in rainfall magnitudes with temporal variations which means Bangladesh will get comparatively drier seasons in future which may be a serious problem for the country as it depends on agriculture.

Keywords: Monsoon, Pre-monsoon, rainfall, pattern, variations, IBM-SPSS.

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Authors: P. van Tonder, C. C. Kruger

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Concrete structures deteriorate over time and degradation escalates due to various factors. The rate of deterioration can be complex and unpredictable in nature. Such deteriorations may be located beneath the surface of the concrete at high elevations. This emphasizes the need for an efficient method of finding such defects to be able to assess the severity thereof. Current methods using thermography to find defects require equipment to reach higher elevations. This could become costly and time consuming not to mention the risks involved in having personnel scaffold or abseiling at such heights. Accordingly, by combining the thermal camera needed for thermography and a remotely piloted aerial system (Drone/RPAS), it could be used to alleviate some of the issues mentioned. Images can be translated into a 3D temperature model to aid concrete diagnostics and with further research can relate back to the mechanical properties of the structure but will not be dealt with in this paper. Such diagnostics includes finding delamination, similar to finding delamination on concrete decks, which resides beneath the surface of the concrete before spalling can occur. Delamination can be caused by reinforcement eroding and causing expansion beneath the concrete surface. This could lead to spalling, where concrete pieces start breaking off from the main concrete structure.

Keywords: Concrete, diagnostic, infrared thermography, 3D thermal models.

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