Search results for: Error estimates

Authors: I Gede Puja Astawa, Yoedy Moegiharto, Ahmad Zainudin, Imam Dui Agus Salim, Nur Annisa Anggraeni

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Performance of Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) system can be improved by adding channel coding (error correction code) to detect and correct errors that occur during data transmission. One can use the convolution code. This paper present performance of OFDM using Space Time Block Codes (STBC) diversity technique use QAM modulation with code rate ½. The evaluation is done by analyzing the value of Bit Error Rate (BER) vs. Energy per Bit to Noise Power Spectral Density Ratio (Eb/No). This scheme is conducted 256 subcarrier transmits Rayleigh multipath channel in OFDM system. To achieve a BER of 10^-3 is required 10dB SNR in SISO-OFDM scheme. For 2x2 MIMO-OFDM scheme requires 10 dB to achieve a BER of 10^-3. For 4x4 MIMO-OFDM scheme requires 5 dB while adding convolution in a 4x4 MIMO-OFDM can improve performance up to 0 dB to achieve the same BER. This proves the existence of saving power by 3 dB of 4x4 MIMO-OFDM system without coding, power saving 7dB of 2x2 MIMO-OFDM and significant power savings from SISO-OFDM system

Keywords: Convolution code, OFDM, MIMO, QAM, BER.

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Authors: Vanessa Vasconcelos, Mariza A. S. Bigonha

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Understanding and using the functional paradigm is a challenge for many programmers. Looking for logical errors in code may take a lot of a developer’s time when a program grows in size. In order to facilitate both processes, this paper presents HaskellFL, a tool that uses fault localization techniques to locate a logical error in Haskell code. The Haskell subset used in this work is sufficiently expressive for those studying Functional Programming to get immediate help debugging their code and to answer questions about key concepts associated with the functional paradigm. HaskellFL was tested against Functional Programming assignments submitted by students enrolled at the Functional Programming class at the Federal University of Minas Gerais and against exercises from the Exercism Haskell track that are publicly available in GitHub. This work also evaluated the effectiveness of two fault localization techniques, Tarantula and Ochiai, in the Haskell context. Furthermore, the EXAM score was chosen to evaluate the tool’s effectiveness, and results showed that HaskellFL reduced the effort needed to locate an error for all tested scenarios. The results also showed that the Ochiai method was more effective than Tarantula.

Keywords: Debug, fault localization, functional programming, Haskell.

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Authors: I. Yakubu, Y. Y. Ziggah, E. A. Gyamera

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The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) started with the launch of the United State Department of Defense Global Positioning System (GPS). GNSS systems has grown over the years to include: GLONASS (Russia); Galileo (European Union); BeiDou (China). Any GNSS architecture consists of three major segments: Space, Control and User Segments. Errors such as; multipath, ionospheric and tropospheric effects, satellite clocks, receiver noise and orbit errors (relativity effect) have significant effects on GNSS positioning. To obtain centimeter level accuracy, the impacts of the relative motion of the satellites and earth need to be taken into account. This paper discusses the relevance of the theory of relativity as a source of error for GNSS receivers for position fix based on available relevant literature. Review of relevant literature reveals that due to relativity; Time dilation, Gravitational frequency shift and Sagnac effect cause significant influence on the use of GNSS receivers for positioning by an error range of ± 2.5 m based on pseudo-range computation.

Keywords: GNSS, relativistic effects, pseudo-range, accuracy.

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Authors: Yang Fu, Jaime Rodrigo Navarro, Jose F. Monserrat, Faiza Bouchmal, Oscar Carrasco Quilis

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Cellular Vehicle to Everything (C-V2X) is considered a promising solution for future autonomous driving. From Release 16 to Release 17, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) has introduced the definitions and services for 5G New Radio (NR) V2X. Since establishing a simulator for C-V2X communications is an essential preliminary step to achieve reliable and stable communication links, this paper proposes a complete framework of a link-level simulator based on the 3GPP specifications for the Physical Sidelink Share Channel (PSSCH) of the 5G NR Physical Layer (PHY). In this framework, several algorithms in the receiver part, i.e., sliding window in channel estimation and Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE)-based equalization, are developed. Finally, the performance of the developed PSSCH receiver is validated through extensive simulations under different assumptions.

Keywords: Yang Fu, Jaime Rodrigo Navarro, Jose F. Monserrat, Faiza Bouchmal, Oscar Carrasco Quilis

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Mathew Wakefield, Matthew Mitchell, Lisa Wise, Christopher McCarthy

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This paper aims to provide an interpretation of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and explore some of its implications. The interpretation views ANNs as a memory which encodes instances of experience. An experiment explores the behavior of encoding and retrieval of instances from memory. A localised representation ANN is created that allows control over encoding and retrieved memory sample size and is experimented with using the MNIST digits dataset. The relationship between input familiarity, conflict within retrieved samples, and error rates is described and demonstrated to be an effective driver for memory encoding. Results indicate that selective encoding and retrieval samples that allow detection of memory conflicts produce optimal performance, and that error rates are normally distributed with input familiarity and conflict. By using input familiarity and sample consistency to guide memory encoding, the number of encoding trials on the dataset were reduced to 18.33% of the training data while maintaining good recognition performance on the test data.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, representation, memory, conflict monitoring, confidence.

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Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

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Reduction of Single Input Single Output (SISO) continuous systems into Reduced Order Model (ROM), using a conventional and an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In the conventional technique, the mixed advantages of Mihailov stability criterion and continued fraction expansions (CFE) technique is employed where the reduced denominator polynomial is derived using Mihailov stability criterion and the numerator is obtained by matching the quotients of the Cauer second form of Continued fraction expansions. In the evolutionary technique method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example.

Keywords: Reduced Order Modeling, Stability, Continued Fraction Expansions, Mihailov Stability Criterion, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error.

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Authors: Jih-Rue Pan, Feng-Chuan Pan

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Today-s healthcare industries had become more patient-centric than profession-centric, from which the issues of quality of healthcare and the patient safety are the major concerns in the modern healthcare facilities. An unplanned extubation (UE) may be detrimental to the patient-s life, and thus is one of the major indexes of patient safety and healthcare quality. A high UE rate not only defeated the healthcare quality as well as the patient safety policy but also the nurses- morality, and job satisfaction. The UE problem in a psychiatric hospital is unique and may be a tough challenge for the healthcare professionals for the patients were mostly lacking communication capabilities. We reported with this essay a particular project that was organized to reduce the UE rate from the current 2.3% to a lower and satisfactory level in the long-term care units of a psychiatric hospital. The project was conducted between March 1st, 2011 and August 31st, 2011. Based on the error information gathered from varied units of the hospital, the team analyzed the root causes with possible solutions proposed to the meetings. Four solutions were then concluded with consensus and launched to the units in question. The UE rate was now reduced to a level of 0.17%. Experience from this project, the procedure and the tools adopted would be good reference to other hospitals.

Keywords: Unplanned extubation, patient safety, error information

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Authors: M. Hari Prabhu

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This paper is based on the performance of the Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) drives using Z-Source Inverter with the simplified rule base of Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) with the output scaling factor (SF) self-tuning mechanism are proposed. The aim of this paper is to simplify the program complexity of the controller by reducing the number of fuzzy sets of the membership functions (MFs) without losing the system performance and stability via the adjustable controller gain. ZSI exhibits both voltage-buck and voltage-boost capability. It reduces line harmonics, improves reliability, and extends output voltage range. The output SF of the controller can be tuned continuously by a gain updating factor, whose value is derived from fuzzy logic, with the plant error and error change ratio as input variables. Then the results, carried out on a four-phase 6/8 pole SRM based on the dSPACEDS1104 platform, to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the devised methods and also performance of the proposed controllers will be compared with conventional counterpart.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, scaling factor (SF), switched reluctance motor (SRM), variable-speed drives.

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Authors: Thejaswi H. Raya, Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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For over a decade, the Pulse Coupled Neural Network (PCNN) based algorithms have been successfully used in image interpretation applications including image segmentation. There are several versions of the PCNN based image segmentation methods, and the segmentation accuracy of all of them is very sensitive to the values of the network parameters. Most methods treat PCNN parameters like linking coefficient and primary firing threshold as global parameters, and determine them by trial-and-error. The automatic determination of appropriate values for linking coefficient, and primary firing threshold is a challenging problem and deserves further research. This paper presents a method for obtaining global as well as local values for the linking coefficient and the primary firing threshold for neurons directly from the image statistics. Extensive simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves excellent segmentation accuracy comparable to the best accuracy obtainable by trial-and-error for a variety of images.

Keywords: Automatic Selection of PCNN Parameters, Image Segmentation, Neural Networks, Pulse Coupled Neural Network

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A , Israel Nuñez

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A bond graph model of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation is presented. A nonlinear observer for the transformer based on multivariable circle criterion in the physical domain is proposed. In order to show the saturation and hysteresis effects on the electrical transformer, simulation results are obtained. Finally, the paper describes that convergence of the estimates to the true states is achieved.

Keywords: Bond graph, nonlinear observer, electrical transformer, nonlinear saturation.

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Authors: Kalyan Deepak Kolla, Ketan Paua, Rajkumar Bhagate

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Transmission dynamics occupy major role in customer perception of the product in both senses of touch and quality of sound. The quantity and quality of sound perceived is more concerned with the whine noise of the gears engaged. Whine noise is tonal in nature and tonal noises cause fatigue and irritation to customers, which in turn affect the quality of the product. Transmission error is the usual suspect for whine noise, which can be caused due to misalignments, tolerances, manufacturing variabilities. In-cabin noise is also more sensitive to the gear design. As the details of the gear tooth design and manufacturing are in microns, anything out of the tolerance zone, either in design or manufacturing, will cause a whine noise. This will also cause high variation in stress and deformation due to change in the load and leads to the fatigue failure of the gears. Hence gear design and development take priority in the transmission development process. This paper aims to study such variability by considering five pairs of helical spur gears and their effect on the transmission error, contact pattern and vibration level on the transmission.

Keywords: Gears, whine noise, manufacturing variability, mount vibration variability.

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Authors: Ehab F. Badran, Guoxiang Gu

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We consider optimal channel equalization for MIMO (multi-input/multi-output) time-varying channels in the sense of MMSE (minimum mean-squared-error), where the observation noise can be non-stationary. We show that all ZF (zero-forcing) receivers can be parameterized in an affine form which eliminates completely the ISI (inter-symbol-interference), and optimal channel equalizers can be designed through minimization of the MSE (mean-squarederror) between the detected signals and the transmitted signals, among all ZF receivers. We demonstrate that the optimal channel equalizer is a modified Kalman filter, and show that under the AWGN (additive white Gaussian noise) assumption, the proposed optimal channel equalizer minimizes the BER (bit error rate) among all possible ZF receivers. Our results are applicable to optimal channel equalization for DWMT (discrete wavelet multitone), multirate transmultiplexers, OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing), and DS (direct sequence) CDMA (code division multiple access) wireless data communication systems. A design algorithm for optimal channel equalization is developed, and several simulation examples are worked out to illustrate the proposed design algorithm.

Keywords: Channel equalization, Kalman filtering, Time-varying systems.

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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Authors: Mohsen A. M. El-Bendary, Mostafa A. R. El-Tokhy

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This paper presents an efficient burst error spreading tool. Also, it studies a vital issue in wireless communications, which is the transmission of images over wireless networks. IEEE ZigBee 802.15.4 is a short-range communication standard that could be used for small distance multimedia transmissions. In fact, the ZigBee network is a Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN), which needs a strong interleaving mechanism for protection against error bursts. Also, it is low power technology and utilized in the Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) implementation. This paper presents the chaotic interleaving scheme as a data randomization tool for this purpose. This scheme depends on the chaotic Baker map. The mobility effects on the image transmission are studied with different velocity through utilizing the Jakes’ model. A comparison study between the proposed chaotic interleaving scheme and the traditional block and convolutional interleaving schemes for image transmission over a correlated fading channel is presented. The simulation results show the superiority of the proposed chaotic interleaving scheme over the traditional schemes.

Keywords: WPANs, Burst Errors, Mobility, Interleaving Techniques, Fading channels.

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

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Reversible logic as a new favorable design domain can be used for various fields especially creating quantum computers because of its speed and intangible power consumption. However, its susceptibility to a variety of environmental effects may lead to yield the incorrect results. In this paper, because of the importance of multiplication operation in various computing systems, some novel reversible logic array multipliers are proposed with error detection capability by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. The new designs are presented for two main parts of array multipliers, partial product generation and multi-operand addition, by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates, which results in two signed parity-preserving array multipliers. The experimental results reveal that the best proposed 4×4 multiplier in this paper reaches 12%, 24%, and 26% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, number of required gates, and quantum cost, respectively, compared to previous design. Moreover, the best proposed design is generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Array multipliers, Baugh-Wooley method, error detection, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic.

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Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

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The selection for plantation of a particular type of mustard plant depending on its productivity (pod yield) at the stage of maturity. The growth of mustard plant dependent on some parameters of that plant, these are shoot length, number of leaves, number of roots and roots length etc. As the plant is growing, some leaves may be fall down and some new leaves may come, so it can not gives the idea to develop the relationship with the seeds weight at mature stage of that plant. It is not possible to find the number of roots and root length of mustard plant at growing stage that will be harmful of this plant as roots goes deeper to deeper inside the land. Only the value of shoot length which increases in course of time can be measured at different time instances. Weather parameters are maximum and minimum humidity, rain fall, maximum and minimum temperature may effect the growth of the plant. The parameters of pollution, water, soil, distance and crop management may be dominant factors of growth of plant and its productivity. Considering all parameters, the growth of the plant is very uncertain, fuzzy environment can be considered for the prediction of shoot length at maturity of the plant. Fuzzification plays a greater role for fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership functions. Here an effort has been made to fuzzify the original data based on gaussian function, triangular function, s-function, Trapezoidal and L –function. After that all fuzzified data are defuzzified to get normal form. Finally the error analysis (calculation of forecasting error and average error) indicates the membership function appropriate for fuzzification of data and use to predict the shoot length at maturity. The result is also verified using residual (Absolute Residual, Maximum of Absolute Residual, Mean Absolute Residual, Mean of Mean Absolute Residual, Median of Absolute Residual and Standard Deviation) analysis.

Keywords: Fuzzification, defuzzification, gaussian function, triangular function, trapezoidal function, s-function, , membership function, residual analysis.

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Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

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One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified.

Keywords: Additive models, local polynomial regression, residuals, mean square error, variable selection.

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Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

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This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: Vasco A. P. Cadavez, Fernando C. Monteiro

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The objective of this study was to develop and compare alternative prediction equations of lean meat proportion (LMP) of lamb carcasses. Forty (40) male lambs, 22 of Churra Galega Bragançana Portuguese local breed and 18 of Suffolk breed were used. Lambs were slaughtered, and carcasses weighed approximately 30 min later in order to obtain hot carcass weight (HCW). After cooling at 4º C for 24-h a set of seventeen carcass measurements was recorded. The left side of carcasses was dissected into muscle, subcutaneous fat, inter-muscular fat, bone, and remainder (major blood vessels, ligaments, tendons, and thick connective tissue sheets associated with muscles), and the LMP was evaluated as the dissected muscle percentage. Prediction equations of LMP were developed, and fitting quality was evaluated through the coefficient of determination of estimation (R2 e) and standard error of estimate (SEE). Models validation was performed by k-fold crossvalidation and the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2 p) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were computed. The BT2 measurement was the best single predictor and accounted for 37.8% of the LMP variation with a SEP of 2.30%. The prediction of LMP of lamb carcasses can be based simple models, using as predictors the HCW and one fat thickness measurement.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Carcass, Lambs, Lean meat

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Authors: Shan Ding, Lijia Zhang, Hongming Xu

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this paper presents a novel scheme which is capable of reducing the error rate and improves the transmission performance in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems. A case study of image transmission is applied to prove the efficient of scheme. The linear dispersion structure is employed to accommodate the cooperative wireless communication network in the dynamic topology of structure, as well as to achieve higher throughput than conventional space–time codes based on orthogonal designs. The LDPC encoder without girth-4 and the STBC encoder with guard intervals are respectively introduced. The experiment results show that the combined coder of LDPC-STBC with guard intervals can be the good error correcting coders and BER performance in the asynchronous cooperative communication. In the case study of image transmission, the results show that in the transmission process, the image quality which is obtained by applied combined scheme is much better than it which is not applied the scheme in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems.

Keywords: Cooperative MIMO, image transmission, lineardispersion codes, Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC)

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: Preetam Kumar

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The number of users supported in a DS-CDMA cellular system is typically less than spreading factor (N), and the system is said to be underloaded. Overloading is a technique to accommodate more number of users than the spreading factor N. In O/O overloading scheme, the first set is assigned to the N synchronous users and the second set is assigned to the additional synchronous users. An iterative multistage soft decision interference cancellation (SDIC) receiver is used to remove high level of interference between the two sets. Performance is evaluated in terms of the maximum number acceptable users so that the system performance is degraded slightly compared to the single user performance at a specified BER. In this paper, the capacity of CDMA based O/O overloading scheme is evaluated with SDIC receiver. It is observed that O/O scheme using orthogonal Gold codes provides 25% channel overloading (N=64) for synchronous DS-CDMA system on an AWGN channel in the uplink at a BER of 1e-5.For a Rayleigh faded channel, the critical capacity is 40% at a BER of 5e-5 assuming synchronous users. But in practical systems, perfect chip timing is very difficult to maintain in the uplink.. We have shown that the overloading performance reduces to 11% for a timing synchronization error of 0.02Tc for a BER of 1e-5.

Keywords: DS-CDMA, Interference Cancellation, MultiuserDetection, Orthogonal codes, Overloading.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

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There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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Authors: Andhe Dharani, P. S. Satyanarayana, Andhe Pallavi

Abstract:

Considering payload, reliability, security and operational lifetime as major constraints in transmission of images we put forward in this paper a steganographic technique implemented at the physical layer. We suggest transmission of Halftoned images (payload constraint) in wireless sensor networks to reduce the amount of transmitted data. For low power and interference limited applications Turbo codes provide suitable reliability. Ensuring security is one of the highest priorities in many sensor networks. The Turbo Code structure apart from providing forward error correction can be utilized to provide for encryption. We first consider the Halftoned image and then the method of embedding a block of data (called secret) in this Halftoned image during the turbo encoding process is presented. The small modifications required at the turbo decoder end to extract the embedded data are presented next. The implementation complexity and the degradation of the BER (bit error rate) in the Turbo based stego system are analyzed. Using some of the entropy based crypt analytic techniques we show that the strength of our Turbo based stego system approaches that found in the OTPs (one time pad).

Keywords: Halftoning, Turbo codes, security, operationallifetime, Turbo based stego system.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

Abstract:

In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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