Search results for: optimal distribution plan
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3763

Search results for: optimal distribution plan

3403 Generic Filtering of Infinite Sets of Stochastic Signals

Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Phil Howlett

Abstract:

A theory for optimal filtering of infinite sets of random signals is presented. There are several new distinctive features of the proposed approach. First, a single optimal filter for processing any signal from a given infinite signal set is provided. Second, the filter is presented in the special form of a sum with p terms where each term is represented as a combination of three operations. Each operation is a special stage of the filtering aimed at facilitating the associated numerical work. Third, an iterative scheme is implemented into the filter structure to provide an improvement in the filter performance at each step of the scheme. The final step of the scheme concerns signal compression and decompression. This step is based on the solution of a new rank-constrained matrix approximation problem. The solution to the matrix problem is described in this paper. A rigorous error analysis is given for the new filter.

Keywords: Optimal filtering, data compression, stochastic signals.

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3402 An Investigation on Electric Field Distribution around 380 kV Transmission Line for Various Pylon Models

Authors: C. F. Kumru, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan

Abstract:

In this study, electric field distribution analyses for three pylon models are carried out by a Finite Element Method (FEM) based software. Analyses are performed in both stationary and time domains to observe instantaneous values along with the effective ones. Considering the results of the study, different line geometries is considerably affecting the magnitude and distribution of electric field although the line voltages are the same. Furthermore, it is observed that maximum values of instantaneous electric field obtained in time domain analysis are quite higher than the effective ones in stationary mode. In consequence, electric field distribution analyses should be individually made for each different line model and the limit exposure values or distances to residential buildings should be defined according to the results obtained.

Keywords: Electric field, energy transmission line, finite element method, pylon.

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3401 Voltage Stability Enhancement Using Cat Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Authors: P. Suryakumari, P. Kantarao

Abstract:

Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem in electrical power system is considered as a static, non-linear, multi-objective or a single objective optimization problem. This paper presents an algorithm for solving the voltage stability objective reactive power dispatch problem in a power system .The proposed approach employs cat swarm optimization algorithm for optimal settings of RPD control variables. Generator terminal voltages, reactive power generation of the capacitor banks and tap changing transformer setting are taken as the optimization variables. CSO algorithm is tested on standard IEEE 30 bus system and the results are compared with other methods to prove the effectiveness of the new algorithm. As a result, the proposed method is the best for solving optimal reactive power dispatch problem.

Keywords: RPD problem, voltage stability enhancement, CSO algorithm.

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3400 Advanced ILQ Control for Buck-Converter viaTwo-Degrees of Freedom Servo-System

Authors: Sidshchadhaa Aumted, Shuhei Shiina, Hiroshi Takami

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an advanced ILQ control for the buck-converter via two-degrees of freedom servo-system. Our presented strategy is based on Inverse Linear Quadratic (ILQ) servo-system controller without solving Riccati-s equation directly. The optimal controller of the current and voltage control system is designed. The stability and robust control are analyzed. A conscious and persistent effort has been made to improve ILQ control via two-degrees of freedom guarantees the optimal gains on the basis of polynomial pole assignment, which our results of the proposed strategy shows that the advanced ILQ control can be controlled independently the step response and the disturbance response by appending a feed-forward compensator.

Keywords: Optimal voltage control, inverse LQ design method, second order polynomial, two-degrees of freedom.

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3399 Generator Capability Curve Constraint for PSO Based Optimal Power Flow

Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto, Takashi Hiyama

Abstract:

An optimal power flow (OPF) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed with more realistic generator security constraint using the capability curve instead of only Pmin/Pmax and Qmin/Qmax. Neural network (NN) was used in designing digital capability curve and the security check algorithm. The algorithm is very simple and flexible especially for representing non linear generation operation limit near steady state stability limit and under excitation operation area. In effort to avoid local optimal power flow solution, the particle swarm optimization was implemented with enough widespread initial population. The objective function used in the optimization process is electric production cost which is dominated by fuel cost. The proposed method was implemented at Java Bali 500 kV power systems contain of 7 generators and 20 buses. The simulation result shows that the combination of generator power output resulted from the proposed method was more economic compared with the result using conventional constraint but operated at more marginal operating point.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network

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3398 Network Reconfiguration of Distribution System Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

Authors: S. Ganesh

Abstract:

Power distribution systems typically have tie and sectionalizing switches whose states determine the topological configuration of the network. The aim of network reconfiguration of the distribution network is to minimize the losses for a load arrangement at a particular time. Thus the objective function is to minimize the losses of the network by satisfying the distribution network constraints. The various constraints are radiality, voltage limits and the power balance condition. In this paper the status of the switches is obtained by using Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm. ABC is based on a particular intelligent behavior of honeybee swarms. ABC is developed based on inspecting the behaviors of real bees to find nectar and sharing the information of food sources to the bees in the hive. The proposed methodology has three stages. In stage one ABC is used to find the tie switches, in stage two the identified tie switches are checked for radiality constraint and if the radilaity constraint is satisfied then the procedure is proceeded to stage three otherwise the process is repeated. In stage three load flow analysis is performed. The process is repeated till the losses are minimized. The ABC is implemented to find the power flow path and the Forward Sweeper algorithm is used to calculate the power flow parameters. The proposed methodology is applied for a 33–bus single feeder distribution network using MATLAB.

Keywords: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, Distribution system, Loss reduction, Network reconfiguration.

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3397 The Framework of Termination Mechanism in Modern Emergency Management

Authors: Yannan Wu, An Chen, Yan Zhao

Abstract:

Termination Mechanism is an indispensible part of the emergency management mechanism. Despite of its importance in both theory and practice, it is almost a brand new field for researching. The concept of termination mechanism is proposed firstly in this paper, and the design and implementation which are helpful to guarantee the effect and integrity of emergency management are discussed secondly. Starting with introduction of the problems caused by absent termination and incorrect termination, the essence of termination mechanism is analyzed, a model based on Optimal Stopping Theory is constructed and the termination index is given. The model could be applied to find the best termination time point.. Termination decision should not only be concerned in termination stage, but also in the whole emergency management process, which makes it a dynamic decision making process. Besides, the main subjects and the procedure of termination are illustrated after the termination time point is given. Some future works are discussed lastly.

Keywords: Emergency management, Termination Mechanism, Optimal Termination Model, Decision Making, Optimal StoppingTheory.

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3396 Optimal Trajectories for Highly Automated Driving

Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller

Abstract:

In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.

Keywords: Trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving.

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3395 Application of the Transtheoretical Model of Exercise Behavior Change Plan in High School Students

Authors: Frank C. Pan, Chih-Hao Chen

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to discuss the effect of the intervention of exercise behavior change plan for high school students on study subjects- social and psychological factors and exercise stages. This research uses the transtheoretical model as the research framework. One experiment group and one control group were used in a quasi-experimental design research. The experimental group accepted health-related physical fitness course and the traditional course; the control group accepted traditional physical education course. There is a significant difference before and after the intervention in the experimental group. Karl-s test shows the experimental group gained a better improvement than that in the control group. The Analysis of Covariance had shown the exercise stages (F=7.62, p<0.05), and the perceived exercise benefit (F=16.91, p<0.05) of the experimental group were obviously larger than those of the control group. There was no major effect on the perceived exercise barrier (F=0.61, p>0.05) after the intervention of exercise behavior change plan. However, the rate of high school students the practical implementation of the exercise is not high, obviously influenced by the exercise barrier. The academic and examination pressure may be the major causes of the exercise barrier in the high school.

Keywords: Transtheoretical model (TTM), High school students, exercise behavior

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3394 A New Hybrid Optimization Method for Optimum Distribution Capacitor Planning

Authors: A. R. Seifi

Abstract:

This work presents a new algorithm based on a combination of fuzzy (FUZ), Dynamic Programming (DP), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach for capacitor allocation in distribution feeders. The problem formulation considers two distinct objectives related to total cost of power loss and total cost of capacitors including the purchase and installation costs. The novel formulation is a multi-objective and non-differentiable optimization problem. The proposed method of this article uses fuzzy reasoning for sitting of capacitors in radial distribution feeders, DP for sizing and finally GA for finding the optimum shape of membership functions which are used in fuzzy reasoning stage. The proposed method has been implemented in a software package and its effectiveness has been verified through a 9-bus radial distribution feeder for the sake of conclusions supports. A comparison has been done among the proposed method of this paper and similar methods in other research works that shows the effectiveness of the proposed method of this paper for solving optimum capacitor planning problem.

Keywords: Capacitor planning, Fuzzy logic method, Genetic Algorithm, Dynamic programming, Radial Distribution feeder

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3393 Simulation of the Performance of Novel Nonlinear Optimal Control Technique on Two Cart-inverted Pendulum System

Authors: B. Baigzadeh, V.Nazarzehi, H.Khaloozadeh

Abstract:

The two cart inverted pendulum system is a good bench mark for testing the performance of system dynamics and control engineering principles. Devasia introduced this system to study the asymptotic tracking problem for nonlinear systems. In this paper the problem of asymptotic tracking of the two-cart with an inverted-pendulum system to a sinusoidal reference inputs via introducing a novel method for solving finite-horizon nonlinear optimal control problems is presented. In this method, an iterative method applied to state dependent Riccati equation (SDRE) to obtain a reliable algorithm. The superiority of this technique has been shown by simulation and comparison with the nonlinear approach.

Keywords: Nonlinear optimal control, State dependent Riccatiequation, Asymptotic tracking, inverted pendulum

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3392 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.

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3391 An Optimal Feature Subset Selection for Leaf Analysis

Authors: N. Valliammal, S.N. Geethalakshmi

Abstract:

This paper describes an optimal approach for feature subset selection to classify the leaves based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Kernel Based Principle Component Analysis (KPCA). Due to high complexity in the selection of the optimal features, the classification has become a critical task to analyse the leaf image data. Initially the shape, texture and colour features are extracted from the leaf images. These extracted features are optimized through the separate functioning of GA and KPCA. This approach performs an intersection operation over the subsets obtained from the optimization process. Finally, the most common matching subset is forwarded to train the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Our experimental results successfully prove that the application of GA and KPCA for feature subset selection using SVM as a classifier is computationally effective and improves the accuracy of the classifier.

Keywords: Optimization, Feature extraction, Feature subset, Classification, GA, KPCA, SVM and Computation

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3390 A Study on Optimal Determination of Partial Transmission Ratios of Helical Gearboxes with Second-Step Double Gear-Sets

Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

In this paper, a study on the applications of the optimization and regression techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets for minimal cross section dimension is introduced. From the condition of the moment equilibrium of a mechanic system including three gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for calculation of the partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets were given. Especially, by regression analysis, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are introduced. These models allow determining the partial ratios accurately and simply.

Keywords: Gearbox design, optimal design, helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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3389 Appraisal of Energy Efficiency of Urban Development Plans: The Fidelity Concept on Izmir-Balcova Case

Authors: Y. Duvarci, A. K. Kutluca

Abstract:

Design and land use are closely linked to the energy efficiency levels for an urban area. The current city planning practice does not involve an effective land useenergy evaluation in its 'blueprint' urban plans. The study proposed an appraisal method that can be embedded in GIS programs using five planning criteria as how far a planner can give away from the planning principles (criteria) for the most energy output s/he can obtain. The case of Balcova, a district in the Izmir Metropolitan area, is used conformingly for evaluating the proposed master plan and the geothermal energy (heating only) use for the concern district. If the land use design were proposed accordingly at-most energy efficiency (a 30% obtained), mainly increasing the density around the geothermal wells and also proposing more mixed use zones, we could have 17% distortion (infidelity to the main planning principles) from the original plan. The proposed method can be an effective tool for planners as simulation media, of which calculations can be made by GIS ready tools, to evaluate efficiency levels for different plan proposals, letting to know how much energy saving causes how much deviation from the other planning ideals. Lower energy uses can be possible for different land use proposals for various policy trials.

Keywords: Sustainable Urban Planning, Energy Efficiency, Geothermal Energy, District Heating Systems (DHS), EnergyPlanning

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3388 A Novel Adaptive Voltage Control Strategy for Boost Converter via Inverse LQ Servo-Control

Authors: Sorawit Stapornchaisit, Sidshchadhaa Aumted, Hiroshi Takami

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive voltage control strategy for boost converter via Inverse LQ Servo-Control. Our presented strategy is based on an analytical formula of Inverse Linear Quadratic (ILQ) design method, which is not necessary to solve Riccati’s equation directly. The optimal and adaptive controller of the voltage control system is designed. The stability and the robust control are analyzed. Whereas, we can get the analytical solution for the optimal and robust voltage control is achieved through the natural angular velocity within a single parameter and we can change the responses easily via the ILQ control theory. Our method provides effective results as the stable responses and the response times are not drifted even if the condition is changed widely.

Keywords: Boost converter, optimal voltage control, inverse LQ design method, type-1 servo-system, adaptive control.

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3387 Development of a Quantitative Material Wastage Management Plan for Effective Waste Reduction in the Building Construction Industry

Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

Combating climate change is becoming a hot topic in various sectors. Building construction and infrastructure sectors contributed a significant proportion of waste and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the environment of different countries and cities. However, there is little research on the micro-level of waste management, “building construction material wastage management,” and fewer reviews about regulatory control in the building construction sector. This paper focuses on the potentialities and importance of material wastage management and reviews the deficiencies of the current standard to take into account the reduction of material wastage in a systematic and quantitative approach.

Keywords: Quantitative measurement, material wastage management plan, waste management, uncalculated waste, circular economy.

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3386 Fault-Tolerant Optimal Broadcast Algorithm for the Hypercube Topology

Authors: Lokendra Singh Umrao, Ravi Shankar Singh

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimal broadcast algorithm for the hypercube networks. The main focus of the paper is the effectiveness of the algorithm in the presence of many node faults. For the optimal solution, our algorithm builds with spanning tree connecting the all nodes of the networks, through which messages are propagated from source node to remaining nodes. At any given time, maximum n − 1 nodes may fail due to crashing. We show that the hypercube networks are strongly fault-tolerant. Simulation results analyze to accomplish algorithm characteristics under many node faults. We have compared our simulation results between our proposed method and the Fu’s method. Fu’s approach cannot tolerate n − 1 faulty nodes in the worst case, but our approach can tolerate n − 1 faulty nodes.

Keywords: Fault tolerance, hypercube, broadcasting, link/node faults, routing.

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3385 A Model for Analysis the Induced Voltage of 115 kV On-Line Acting on Neighboring 22 kV Off-Line

Authors: S. Woothipatanapan, S. Prakobkit

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for analysis the induced voltage of transmission lines (energized) acting on neighboring distribution lines (de-energized). From environmental restrictions, 22 kV distribution lines need to be installed under 115 kV transmission lines. With the installation of the two parallel circuits like this, they make the induced voltage which can cause harm to operators. This work was performed with the ATP-EMTP modeling to analyze such phenomenon before field testing. Simulation results are used to find solutions to prevent danger to operators who are on the pole.

Keywords: Transmission system, distribution system, induced voltage, off-line operation.

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3384 Application of De Novo Programming Approach for Optimizing the Business Process

Authors: Z. Babic, I. Veza, A. Balic, M. Crnjac

Abstract:

The linear programming model is sometimes difficult to apply in real business situations due to its assumption of proportionality. This paper shows an example of how to use De Novo programming approach instead of linear programming. In the De Novo programming, resources are not fixed like in linear programming but resource quantities depend only on available budget. Budget is a new, important element of the De Novo approach. Two different production situations are presented: increasing costs and quantity discounts of raw materials. The focus of this paper is on advantages of the De Novo approach in the optimization of production plan for production company which produces souvenirs made from famous stone from the island of Brac, one of the greatest islands from Croatia.

Keywords: De Novo Programming, production plan, stone souvenirs, variable prices.

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3383 Minimum-Fuel Optimal Trajectory for Reusable First-Stage Rocket Landing Using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Kevin Spencer G. Anglim, Zhenyu Zhang, Qingbin Gao

Abstract:

Reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) present a more environmentally-friendly approach to accessing space when compared to traditional launch vehicles that are discarded after each flight. This paper studies the recyclable nature of RLVs by presenting a solution method for determining minimum-fuel optimal trajectories using principles from optimal control theory and particle swarm optimization (PSO). This problem is formulated as a minimum-landing error powered descent problem where it is desired to move the RLV from a fixed set of initial conditions to three different sets of terminal conditions. However, unlike other powered descent studies, this paper considers the highly nonlinear effects caused by atmospheric drag, which are often ignored for studies on the Moon or on Mars. Rather than optimizing the controls directly, the throttle control is assumed to be bang-off-bang with a predetermined thrust direction for each phase of flight. The PSO method is verified in a one-dimensional comparison study, and it is then applied to the two-dimensional cases, the results of which are illustrated.

Keywords: Minimum-fuel optimal trajectory, particle swarm optimization, reusable rocket, SpaceX.

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3382 Optimized Delay Constrained QoS Routing

Authors: P. S. Prakash, S. Selvan

Abstract:

QoS Routing aims to find paths between senders and receivers satisfying the QoS requirements of the application which efficiently using the network resources and underlying routing algorithm to be able to find low-cost paths that satisfy given QoS constraints. The problem of finding least-cost routing is known to be NP-hard or complete and some algorithms have been proposed to find a near optimal solution. But these heuristics or algorithms either impose relationships among the link metrics to reduce the complexity of the problem which may limit the general applicability of the heuristic, or are too costly in terms of execution time to be applicable to large networks. In this paper, we concentrate an algorithm that finds a near-optimal solution fast and we named this algorithm as optimized Delay Constrained Routing (ODCR), which uses an adaptive path weight function together with an additional constraint imposed on the path cost, to restrict search space and hence ODCR finds near optimal solution in much quicker time.

Keywords: QoS, Delay, Routing, Optimization.

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3381 Application of Pearson Parametric Distribution Model in Fatigue Life Reliability Evaluation

Authors: E. A. Azrulhisham, Y. M. Asri, A. W. Dzuraidah, A. H. Hairul Fahmi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking into account the variation of material properties associated with the size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of probability of failure of mass-produced parts.

Keywords: Stub axle, Fatigue life reliability, Stress-life, PSN curve, Weibull distribution, Pearson system

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3380 Optimal Rest Interval between Sets in Robot-Based Upper-Arm Rehabilitation

Authors: Virgil Miranda, Gissele Mosqueda, Pablo Delgado, Yimesker Yihun

Abstract:

Muscular fatigue affects the muscle activation that is needed for producing the desired clinical outcome. Integrating optimal muscle relaxation periods into a variety of health care rehabilitation protocols is important to maximize the efficiency of the therapy. In this study, four muscle relaxation periods (30, 60, 90 and 120 seconds) and their effectiveness in producing consistent muscle activation of the muscle biceps brachii between sets of an elbow flexion and extension task were investigated among a sample of 10 subjects with no disabilities. The same resting periods were then utilized in a controlled exoskeleton-based exercise for a sample size of 5 subjects and have shown similar results. On average, the muscle activity of the biceps brachii decreased by 0.3% when rested for 30 seconds, and it increased by 1.25%, 0.76% and 0.82% when using muscle relaxation periods of 60, 90 and 120 seconds, respectively. The preliminary results suggest that a muscle relaxation period of about 60 seconds is needed for optimal continuous muscle activation within rehabilitation regimens. Robot-based rehabilitation is good to produce repetitive tasks with the right intensity and knowing the optimal resting period will make the automation more effective.

Keywords: Rest intervals, muscle biceps brachii, robot rehabilitation, muscle fatigue.

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3379 Optimal Duty-Cycle Modulation Scheme for Analog-To-Digital Conversion Systems

Authors: G. Sonfack, J. Mbihi, B. Lonla Moffo

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimal duty-cycle modulation (ODCM) scheme for analog-to-digital conversion (ADC) systems. The overall ODCM-Based ADC problem is decoupled into optimal DCM and digital filtering sub-problems, while taking into account constraints of mutual design parameters between the two. Using a set of three lemmas and four morphological theorems, the ODCM sub-problem is modelled as a nonlinear cost function with nonlinear constraints. Then, a weighted least pth norm of the error between ideal and predicted frequency responses is used as a cost function for the digital filtering sub-problem. In addition, MATLAB fmincon and MATLAB iirlnorm tools are used as optimal DCM and least pth norm solvers respectively. Furthermore, the virtual simulation scheme of an overall prototyping ODCM-based ADC system is implemented and well tested with the help of Simulink tool according to relevant set of design data, i.e., 3 KHz of modulating bandwidth, 172 KHz of maximum modulation frequency and 25 MHZ of sampling frequency. Finally, the results obtained and presented show that the ODCM-based ADC achieves under 3 KHz of modulating bandwidth: 57 dBc of SINAD (signal-to-noise and distorsion), 58 dB of SFDR (Surpious free dynamic range) -80 dBc of THD (total harmonic distorsion), and 10 bits of minimum resolution. These performance levels appear to be a great challenge within the class of oversampling ADC topologies, with 2nd order IIR (infinite impulse response) decimation filter.

Keywords: Digital IIR filter, morphological lemmas and theorems, optimal DCM-based DAC, virtual simulation, weighted least pth norm.

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3378 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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3377 Optimal Design for SARMA(P,Q)L Process of EWMA Control Chart

Authors: Y. Areepong

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to study Statistical Process Control (SPC) with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart when observations are serially-correlated. The characteristic of control chart is Average Run Length (ARL) which is the average number of samples taken before an action signal is given. Ideally, an acceptable ARL of in-control process should be enough large, so-called (ARL0). Otherwise it should be small when the process is out-of-control, so-called Average of Delay Time (ARL1) or a mean of true alarm. We find explicit formulas of ARL for EWMA control chart for Seasonal Autoregressive and Moving Average processes (SARMA) with Exponential white noise. The results of ARL obtained from explicit formula and Integral equation are in good agreement. In particular, this formulas for evaluating (ARL0) and (ARL1) be able to get a set of optimal parameters which depend on smoothing parameter (λ) and width of control limit (H) for designing EWMA chart with minimum of (ARL1).

Keywords: Average Run Length1, Optimal parameters, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart.

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3376 A Thought on Exotic Statistical Distributions

Authors: R K Sinha

Abstract:

The statistical distributions are modeled in explaining nature of various types of data sets. Although these distributions are mostly uni-modal, it is quite common to see multiple modes in the observed distribution of the underlying variables, which make the precise modeling unrealistic. The observed data do not exhibit smoothness not necessarily due to randomness, but could also be due to non-randomness resulting in zigzag curves, oscillations, humps etc. The present paper argues that trigonometric functions, which have not been used in probability functions of distributions so far, have the potential to take care of this, if incorporated in the distribution appropriately. A simple distribution (named as, Sinoform Distribution), involving trigonometric functions, is illustrated in the paper with a data set. The importance of trigonometric functions is demonstrated in the paper, which have the characteristics to make statistical distributions exotic. It is possible to have multiple modes, oscillations and zigzag curves in the density, which could be suitable to explain the underlying nature of select data set.

Keywords: Exotic Statistical Distributions, Kurtosis, Mixture Distributions, Multi-modal

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3375 An Optimal Control Problem for Rigid Body Motions on Lie Group SO(2, 1)

Authors: Nemat Abazari, Ilgin Sager

Abstract:

In this paper smooth trajectories are computed in the Lie group SO(2, 1) as a motion planning problem by assigning a Frenet frame to the rigid body system to optimize the cost function of the elastic energy which is spent to track a timelike curve in Minkowski space. A method is proposed to solve a motion planning problem that minimize the integral of the square norm of Darboux vector of a timelike curve. This method uses the coordinate free Maximum Principle of Optimal control and results in the theory of integrable Hamiltonian systems. The presence of several conversed quantities inherent in these Hamiltonian systems aids in the explicit computation of the rigid body motions.

Keywords: Optimal control, Hamiltonian vector field, Darboux vector, maximum principle, lie group, Rigid body motion, Lorentz metric.

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3374 Compton Scattering of Annihilation Photons as a Short Range Quantum Key Distribution Mechanism

Authors: Roman Novak, Matjaz Vencelj

Abstract:

The angular distribution of Compton scattering of two quanta originating in the annihilation of a positron with an electron is investigated as a quantum key distribution (QKD) mechanism in the gamma spectral range. The geometry of coincident Compton scattering is observed on the two sides as a way to obtain partially correlated readings on the quantum channel. We derive the noise probability density function of a conceptually equivalent prepare and measure quantum channel in order to evaluate the limits of the concept in terms of the device secrecy capacity and estimate it at roughly 1.9 bits per 1 000 annihilation events. The high error rate is well above the tolerable error rates of the common reconciliation protocols; therefore, the proposed key agreement protocol by public discussion requires key reconciliation using classical error-correcting codes. We constructed a prototype device based on the readily available monolithic detectors in the least complex setup.

Keywords: Compton scattering, gamma-ray polarization, quantumcryptography, quantum key distribution

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