Search results for: Multiple regression modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3974

Search results for: Multiple regression modeling

374 Adoption and Use of an Electronic Voting System in Ghana

Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

Abstract:

The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: Credible elections, democracy, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM).

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373 Orbit Determination Modeling with Graphical Demonstration

Authors: Assem M. F. Sallam, Ah. El-S. Makled

Abstract:

In this paper, there is an implementation, verification, and graphical demonstration of a software application, which can be used swiftly over different preliminary orbit determination methods. A passive orbit determination method is used in this study to determine the location of a satellite or a flying body. It is named a passive orbit determination because it depends on observation without the use of any aids (radio and laser) installed on satellite. In order to understand how these methods work and how their output is accurate when compared with available verification data, the built models help in knowing the different inputs used with each method. Output from the different orbit determination methods (Gibbs, Lambert, and Gauss) will be compared with each other and verified by the data obtained from Satellite Tool Kit (STK) application. A modified model including all of the orbit determination methods using the same input will be introduced to investigate different models output (orbital parameters) for the same input (azimuth, elevation, and time). Simulation software is implemented using MATLAB. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) application named OrDet is produced using the GUI of MATLAB. It includes all the available used inputs and it outputs the current Classical Orbital Elements (COE) of satellite under observation. Produced COE are then used to propagate for a complete revolution and plotted on a 3-D view. Modified model which uses an adapter to allow same input parameters, passes these parameters to the preliminary orbit determination methods under study. Result from all orbit determination methods yield exactly the same COE output, which shows the equality of concept in determination of satellite’s location, but with different numerical methods.

Keywords: Orbit determination, STK, MATLAB-GUI, satellite tracking.

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372 Landfill Failure Mobility Analysis: A Probabilistic Approach

Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

Abstract:

Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: Landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type.

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371 Mathematical Modeling of Wind Energy System for Designing Fault Tolerant Control

Authors: Patil Ashwini, Archana Thosar

Abstract:

This paper addresses the mathematical model of wind energy system useful for designing fault tolerant control. To serve the demand of power, large capacity wind energy systems are vital. These systems are installed offshore where non planned service is very costly. Whenever there is a fault in between two planned services, the system may stop working abruptly. This might even lead to the complete failure of the system. To enhance the reliability, the availability and reduce the cost of maintenance of wind turbines, the fault tolerant control systems are very essential. For designing any control system, an appropriate mathematical model is always needed. In this paper, the two-mass model is modified by considering the frequent mechanical faults like misalignments in the drive train, gears and bearings faults. These faults are subject to a wear process and cause frictional losses. This paper addresses these faults in the mathematics of the wind energy system. Further, the work is extended to study the variations of the parameters namely generator inertia constant, spring constant, viscous friction coefficient and gear ratio; on the pole-zero plot which is related with the physical design of the wind turbine. Behavior of the wind turbine during drive train faults are simulated and briefly discussed.

Keywords: Mathematical model of wind energy system, stability analysis, shaft stiffness, viscous friction coefficient, gear ratio, generator inertia, fault tolerant control.

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370 Modeling and Analysis of Adaptive Buffer Sharing Scheme for Consecutive Packet Loss Reduction in Broadband Networks

Authors: Sakshi Kausha, R.K Sharma

Abstract:

High speed networks provide realtime variable bit rate service with diversified traffic flow characteristics and quality requirements. The variable bit rate traffic has stringent delay and packet loss requirements. The burstiness of the correlated traffic makes dynamic buffer management highly desirable to satisfy the Quality of Service (QoS) requirements. This paper presents an algorithm for optimization of adaptive buffer allocation scheme for traffic based on loss of consecutive packets in data-stream and buffer occupancy level. Buffer is designed to allow the input traffic to be partitioned into different priority classes and based on the input traffic behavior it controls the threshold dynamically. This algorithm allows input packets to enter into buffer if its occupancy level is less than the threshold value for priority of that packet. The threshold is dynamically varied in runtime based on packet loss behavior. The simulation is run for two priority classes of the input traffic – realtime and non-realtime classes. The simulation results show that Adaptive Partial Buffer Sharing (ADPBS) has better performance than Static Partial Buffer Sharing (SPBS) and First In First Out (FIFO) queue under the same traffic conditions.

Keywords: Buffer Management, Consecutive packet loss, Quality-of-Service, Priority based packet discarding, partial buffersharing.

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369 Twitter Sentiment Analysis during the Lockdown on New Zealand

Authors: Smah Doeban Almotiri

Abstract:

One of the most common fields of natural language processing (NLP) is sentimental analysis. The inferred feeling in the text can be successfully mined for various events using sentiment analysis. Twitter is viewed as a reliable data point for sentimental analytics studies since people are using social media to receive and exchange different types of data on a broad scale during the COVID-19 epidemic. The processing of such data may aid in making critical decisions on how to keep the situation under control. The aim of this research is to look at how sentimental states differed in a single geographic region during the lockdown at two different times.1162 tweets were analyzed related to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown using keywords hashtags (lockdown, COVID-19) for the first sample tweets were from March 23, 2020, until April 23, 2020, and the second sample for the following year was from March 1, 2021, until April 4, 2021. Natural language processing (NLP), which is a form of Artificial intelligent was used for this research to calculate the sentiment value of all of the tweets by using AFINN Lexicon sentiment analysis method. The findings revealed that the sentimental condition in both different times during the region's lockdown was positive in the samples of this study, which are unique to the specific geographical area of New Zealand. This research suggests applied machine learning sentimental method such as Crystal Feel and extended the size of the sample tweet by using multiple tweets over a longer period of time.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Twitter analysis, lockdown, Covid-19, AFINN, NodeJS

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368 Thermo-Mechanical Approach to Evaluate Softening Behavior of Polystyrene: Validation and Modeling

Authors: Salah Al-Enezi, Rashed Al-Zufairi, Naseer Ahmad

Abstract:

A Thermo-mechanical technique was developed to determine softening point temperature/glass transition temperature (Tg) of polystyrene exposed to high pressures. The design utilizes the ability of carbon dioxide to lower the glass transition temperature of polymers and acts as plasticizer. In this apparatus, the sorption of carbon dioxide to induce softening of polymers as a function of temperature/pressure is performed and the extent of softening is measured in three-point-flexural-bending mode. The polymer strip was placed in the cell in contact with the linear variable differential transformer (LVDT). CO2 was pumped into the cell from a supply cylinder to reach high pressure. The results clearly showed that full softening point of the samples, accompanied by a large deformation on the polymer strip. The deflection curves are initially relatively flat and then undergo a dramatic increase as the temperature is elevated. It was found that increasing the pressure of CO2 causes the temperature curves to shift from higher to lower by increment of about 45 K, over the pressure range of 0-120 bars. The obtained experimental Tg values were validated with the values reported in the literature. Finally, it is concluded that the defection model fits consistently to the generated experimental results, which attempts to describe in more detail how the central deflection of a thin polymer strip affected by the CO2 diffusions in the polymeric samples.

Keywords: Softening, high-pressure, polystyrene, CO2 diffusions.

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367 A Neurofuzzy Learning and its Application to Control System

Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

A neurofuzzy approach for a given set of input-output training data is proposed in two phases. Firstly, the data set is partitioned automatically into a set of clusters. Then a fuzzy if-then rule is extracted from each cluster to form a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, a fuzzy neural network is constructed accordingly and parameters are tuned to increase the precision of the fuzzy rule base. This network is able to learn and optimize the rule base of a Sugeno like Fuzzy inference system using Hybrid learning algorithm, which combines gradient descent, and least mean square algorithm. This proposed neurofuzzy system has the advantage of determining the number of rules automatically and also reduce the number of rules, decrease computational time, learns faster and consumes less memory. The authors also investigate that how neurofuzzy techniques can be applied in the area of control theory to design a fuzzy controller for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems modelling from a set of input/output data. The simulation analysis on a wide range of processes, to identify nonlinear components on-linely in a control system and a benchmark problem involving the prediction of a chaotic time series is carried out. Furthermore, the well-known examples of linear and nonlinear systems are also simulated under the Matlab/Simulink environment. The above combination is also illustrated in modeling the relationship between automobile trips and demographic factors.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, neuro-fuzzy techniques, fuzzy subtractive clustering, extraction of rules, and optimization of membership functions.

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366 Towards a Broader Understanding of Journal Impact: Measuring Relationships between Journal Characteristics and Scholarly Impact

Authors: X. Gu, K. L. Blackmore

Abstract:

The impact factor was introduced to measure the quality of journals. Various impact measures exist from multiple bibliographic databases. In this research, we aim to provide a broader understanding of the relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics of academic journals. Data used for this research were collected from Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory (Ulrichs), Cabell’s (Cabells), and SCImago Journal & Country Rank (SJR) from 1999 to 2015. A master journal dataset was consolidated via Journal Title and ISSN. We adopted a two-step analysis process to study the quantitative relationships between scholarly impact and other journal characteristics. Firstly, we conducted a correlation analysis over the data attributes, with results indicating that there are no correlations between any of the identified journal characteristics. Secondly, we examined the quantitative relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics using quartile analysis. The results show interesting patterns, including some expected and others less anticipated. Results show that higher quartile journals publish more in both frequency and quantity, and charge more for subscription cost. Top quartile journals also have the lowest acceptance rates. Non-English journals are more likely to be categorized in lower quartiles, which are more likely to stop publishing than higher quartiles. Future work is suggested, which includes analysis of the relationship between scholars and their publications, based on the quartile ranking of journals in which they publish.

Keywords: Academic journal, acceptance rate, impact factor, journal characteristics.

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365 Modeling Strategy and Numerical Validation of the Turbulent Flow over a two-Dimensional Flat Roof

Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Alberto Castelli, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

The construction of a civil structure inside a urban area inevitably modifies the outdoor microclimate at the building site. Wind speed, wind direction, air pollution, driving rain, radiation and daylight are some of the main physical aspects that are subjected to the major changes. The quantitative amount of these modifications depends on the shape, size and orientation of the building and on its interaction with the surrounding environment.The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine two-dimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data.Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions.The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as a guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.

Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind.

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364 Memorabilia of Suan Sunandha through Interactive User Interface

Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

Abstract:

The objectives of memorabilia of Suan Sunandha are to develop a general knowledge presentation about the historical royal garden through interactive graphic simulation technique and to employ high-functionality context in enhancing interactive user navigation. The approach infers non-intrusive display of relevant history in response to situational context. User’s navigation runs through the virtual reality campus, consisting of new and restored buildings. A flash back presentation of information pertaining to the history in the form of photos, paintings, and textual descriptions are displayed along each passing-by building. To keep the presentation lively, graphical simulation is created in a serendipity game play so that the user can both learn and enjoy the educational tour. The benefits of this human-computer interaction development are two folds. First, lively presentation technique and situational context modeling are developed that entail a usable paradigm of knowledge and information presentation combinations. Second, cost effective training and promotion for both internal personnel and public visitors to learn and keep informed of this historical royal garden can be furnished without the need for a dedicated public relations service. Future improvement on graphic simulation and ability based display can extend this work to be more realistic, user-friendly, and informative for all.

Keywords: Interactive user navigation, high-functionality context, situational context, human-computer interaction.

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363 Statistical Modeling of Local Area Fading Channels Based on Triply Stochastic Filtered Marked Poisson Point Processes

Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Fading noise degrades the performance of cellular communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this paper utilized a Poisson modulated-weighted generalized Laguerre polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multidiversity stochastically local area fading channel when the channel consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering centers with a coherent Nakagami-distributed line of sight component and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.

Keywords: Cellular communication, femto- and pico-cells, stochastically local area fading channel, triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process.

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362 Evaluation of Stent Performances using FEA considering a Realistic Balloon Expansion

Authors: Won-Pil Park, Seung-Kwan Cho, Jai-Young Ko, Anders Kristensson, S.T.S. Al-Hassani, Han-Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim

Abstract:

A number of previous studies were rarely considered the effects of transient non-uniform balloon expansion on evaluation of the properties and behaviors of stents during stent expansion, nor did they determine parameters to maximize the performances driven by mechanical characteristics. Therefore, in order to fully understand the mechanical characteristics and behaviors of stent, it is necessary to consider a realistic modeling of transient non-uniform balloon-stent expansion. The aim of the study is to propose design parameters capable of improving the ability of vascular stent through a comparative study of seven commercial stents using finite element analyses of a realistic transient non-uniform balloon-stent expansion process. In this study, seven representative commercialized stents were evaluated by finite element (FE) analysis in terms of the criteria based on the itemized list of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Standards (prEN). The results indicate that using stents composed of opened unit cells connected by bend-shaped link structures and controlling the geometrical and morphological features of the unit cell strut or the link structure at the distal ends of stent may improve mechanical characteristics of stent. This study provides a better method at the realistic transient non-uniform balloon-stent expansion by investigating the characteristics, behaviors, and parameters capable of improving the ability of vascular stent.

Keywords: Finite Element Analysis, Mechanical Characteristic, Transient Non-uniform Balloon-Stent Expansion, Vascular Stent.

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361 Single Phase 13-Level D-STATCOM Inverter with Distributed System

Authors: R. Kamalakannan, N. Ravi Kumar

Abstract:

The global energy consumption is increasing persistently and need for distributed power generation through renewable energy is essential. To meet the power requirements for consumers without any voltage fluctuations and losses, modeling and design of multilevel inverter with Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) capability is presented. The presented inverter is provided with 13-level cascaded H-bridge topology of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBTs) connected along with inbuilt Distributed Static Synchronous Compensators (DSTATCOM). The DSTATCOM device provides control of power factor stability at local feeder lines and the inverter eliminates Total Harmonic Distortion (THD). The 13-level inverter utilizes 52 switches of each H-bridge is fed with single DC sources separately and the Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) technique is used for switching IGBTs. The control strategy implemented for inverter transmits active power to grid as well as it maintains power factor to be stable with achievement of steady state power transmission. Significant outcome of this project is improvement of output voltage quality with steady state power transmission with low THD. Simulation of inverter with DSTATCOM is performed using MATLAB/Simulink environment. The scaled prototype model of proposed inverter is built and its results were validated with simulated results.

Keywords: FACTS devices, distributed-Static synchronous compensators, DSTATCOM, total harmonics elimination, modular multilevel converter.

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360 A Study on Learning Styles and Academic Performance in Relation with Kinesthetic, Verbal and Visual Intelligences

Authors: Salina Budin, Nor Liawati Abu Othman, Shaira Ismail

Abstract:

This study attempts to determine kinesthetic, verbal and visual intelligences among mechanical engineering undergraduate students and explores any probable relation with students’ learning styles and academic performance. The questionnaire used in this study is based on Howard Gardner’s multiple intelligences theory comprising of five elements of learning style; environmental, sociological, emotional, physiological and psychological. Questionnaires are distributed amongst undergraduates in the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering. Additional questions on students’ perception of learning styles and their academic performance are included in the questionnaire. The results show that one third of the students are strongly dominant in the kinesthetic intelligent (33%), followed by a combination of kinesthetic and visual intelligences (29%) and 21% are strongly dominant in all three types of intelligences. There is a statistically significant correlation between kinesthetic, verbal and visual intelligences and students learning styles and academic performances. The ANOVA analysis supports that there is a significant relationship between academic performances and level of kinesthetic, verbal and visual intelligences. In addition, it has also proven a remarkable relationship between academic performances and kinesthetic, verbal and visual learning styles amongst the male and female students. Thus, it can be concluded that, academic achievements can be enhanced by understanding as well as capitalizing the students’ types of intelligences and learning styles.

Keywords: Kinesthetic intelligent, verbal intelligent, visual intelligent, learning style, academic performances.

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359 Helping Others and Youth Mental Health: A Qualitative Study Exploring Perspectives of Youth Engaging in Prosocial Activities

Authors: Saima Hirani, Emmanuela Ojukwu, Nilanga Aki Bandara

Abstract:

Mental health challenges that begin during the youth age period may continue across the entire life course. One way to support youth mental health is to encourage youth engagement in prosocial activities. This study aimed to explore youth’s perceptions about helping others and mental wellbeing, barriers, and enablers for youth to initiate and continue prosocial activities, and strategies for developing the attribute of helping others in youth. We conducted a qualitative study using semi-structured, virtual interviews with 18 young individuals (aged 16-24 years) living in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Youth perceived helping others as a source of feeling peace and calm, finding meaning in life, experiencing social connection and promoting self-care, and relieving stress. Participants reported opportunities to learn new skills, the role of religion, social connections, previous positive experiences, and role modeling as enablers for their prosocial behavior. Heavy time commitment, negative behavior from others, self-doubt, and late exposure to such activities were considered barriers by youth when participating in prosocial activities. Youth also brought forward key recommendations for engaging youth in helping others. The findings of this study support the notion that youth have positive experiences when engaging in helping others and that involving young people in prosocial activities could be used as a protective intervention for promoting youth mental health and overall wellbeing.

Keywords: Helping others, prosocial behavior, youth, mental wellbeing.

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358 A Comparative Study on Eastern and Western Wedding Ceremonies in Korean Films and Hollywood Films

Authors: Timothy Yoonsuk Lee, Joonhyoup Lee, Yoojin Chung

Abstract:

As an adult man and woman love each other and come to have faith in each other as their spouse, they marry each other. Recently people-s economic life has become individualized and women are enjoying a high education level and increased participation in social activities, and these changes are creating environment favorable for single life. Thus, an increasing number of people are choosing celibacy, and many people prefer cohabitation to marriage. Nevertheless, marriage is still regarded as a must-to-do in our thought. Most of people throughout the world admit marriage as one of natural processes of life, and is an important passage rite in life that all people experience as we can see everywhere in the world despite the diversity of lifestyles. With regard to wedding ceremony, however, each country and culture has its own unique tradition and style of festival. It is not just a congratulatory ceremony but contains multiple concepts representing the age, country or culture. Moreover, the form and contents of wedding ceremony changes over time, and such features of wedding ceremony are well represented in films. This study took note of the fact that films reflect and reproduce each country-s historicity, culturality and analyzed four films, which are believed to show differences between Eastern and Western wedding ceremonies. The selected films are: A Perfect Match (2002), Marriage Is a Crazy Thing (2001), Bride Wars (2009) and 27 Dresses (2008). The author attempted to examine wedding ceremonies described in the four films, differences between the East and the West suggested by the films, and changes in their societies.

Keywords: Wedding ceremony, Korean films, Hollywood films, semiotics

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357 DC Bus Voltage Regulator for Renewable Energy Based Microgrid Application

Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

Abstract:

Renewable Energy based microgrids are being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. The technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Electricity generation by Renewable Energy Sources is of stochastic nature such that there is a demand for regulation of voltage output in order to satisfy the standard loads’ requirements. In a renewable energy based microgrid, the energy sources give stochastically variable magnitude AC or DC voltages. AC voltage regulation of micro and mini sources pose practical challenges as well as unbearable costs. It is therefore practically and economically viable to convert the voltage outputs from stochastic AC and DC voltage sources to constant DC voltage to satisfy various DC loads including inverters which ultimately feed AC loads. This paper presents results obtained from SEPIC converter based DC bus voltage regulator as a case study for renewable energy microgrid application. Real-Time Simulation results show that upon appropriate choice of controller parameters for control of the SEPIC converter, the output DC bus voltage can be kept constant regardless of wide range of voltage variations of the source. This feature is particularly important in the situation that multiple renewable sources are to be integrated to supply a microgrid under main grid integration or isolated modes of operation.

Keywords: DC Voltage Regulator, microgrid, multisource, Renewable Energy, SEPIC Converter.

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356 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

Abstract:

Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: Time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure machine learning.

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355 Improving Topic Quality of Scripts by Using Scene Similarity Based Word Co-Occurrence

Authors: Yunseok Noh, Chang-Uk Kwak, Sun-Joong Kim, Seong-Bae Park

Abstract:

Scripts are one of the basic text resources to understand broadcasting contents. Topic modeling is the method to get the summary of the broadcasting contents from its scripts. Generally, scripts represent contents descriptively with directions and speeches, and provide scene segments that can be seen as semantic units. Therefore, a script can be topic modeled by treating a scene segment as a document. Because scene segments consist of speeches mainly, however, relatively small co-occurrences among words in the scene segments are observed. This causes inevitably the bad quality of topics by statistical learning method. To tackle this problem, we propose a method to improve topic quality with additional word co-occurrence information obtained using scene similarities. The main idea of improving topic quality is that the information that two or more texts are topically related can be useful to learn high quality of topics. In addition, more accurate topical representations lead to get information more accurate whether two texts are related or not. In this paper, we regard two scene segments are related if their topical similarity is high enough. We also consider that words are co-occurred if they are in topically related scene segments together. By iteratively inferring topics and determining semantically neighborhood scene segments, we draw a topic space represents broadcasting contents well. In the experiments, we showed the proposed method generates a higher quality of topics from Korean drama scripts than the baselines.

Keywords: Broadcasting contents, generalized P´olya urn model, scripts, text similarity, topic model.

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354 Structural Analysis of Stiffened FGM Thick Walled Cylinders by Application of a New Cylindrical Super Element

Authors: S. A. Moeini, M. T.Ahmadian

Abstract:

Structural behavior of ring stiffened thick walled cylinders made of functionally graded materials (FGMs) is investigated in this paper. Functionally graded materials are inhomogeneous composites which are usually made from a mixture of metal and ceramic. The gradient compositional variation of the constituents from one surface to the other provides an elegant solution to the problem of high transverse shear stresses that are induced when two dissimilar materials with large differences in material properties are bonded. FGM formation of the cylinder is modeled by power-law exponent and the variation of characteristics is supposed to be in radial direction. A finite element formulation is derived for the analysis. According to the property variation of the constituent materials in the radial direction of the wall, it is not convenient to use conventional elements to model and analyze the structure of the stiffened FGM cylinders. In this paper a new cylindrical super-element is used to model the finite element formulation and analyze the static and modal behavior of stiffened FGM thick walled cylinders. By using this super-element the number of elements, which are needed for modeling, will reduce significantly and the process time is less in comparison with conventional finite element formulations. Results for static and modal analysis are evaluated and verified by comparison to finite element formulation with conventional elements. Comparison indicates a good conformity between results.

Keywords: FGMs, Modal analysis, Static analysis, Stiffened cylinders.

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353 Statistical Modeling of Accelerated Pavement Failure Using Response Surface Methodology

Authors: Anshu Manik, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha K. Khaitan

Abstract:

Rutting is one of the major load-related distresses in airport flexible pavements. Rutting in paving materials develop gradually with an increasing number of load applications, usually appearing as longitudinal depressions in the wheel paths and it may be accompanied by small upheavals to the sides. Significant research has been conducted to determine the factors which affect rutting and how they can be controlled. Using the experimental design concepts, a series of tests can be conducted while varying levels of different parameters, which could be the cause for rutting in airport flexible pavements. If proper experimental design is done, the results obtained from these tests can give a better insight into the causes of rutting and the presence of interactions and synergisms among the system variables which have influence on rutting. Although traditionally, laboratory experiments are conducted in a controlled fashion to understand the statistical interaction of variables in such situations, this study is an attempt to identify the critical system variables influencing airport flexible pavement rut depth from a statistical DoE perspective using real field data from a full-scale test facility. The test results do strongly indicate that the response (rut depth) has too much noise in it and it would not allow determination of a good model. From a statistical DoE perspective, two major changes proposed for this experiment are: (1) actual replication of the tests is definitely required, (2) nuisance variables need to be identified and blocked properly. Further investigation is necessary to determine possible sources of noise in the experiment.

Keywords: Airport Pavement, Design of Experiments, Rutting, NAPTF.

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352 Variations of Body Mass Index with Age in Masters Athletes (World Masters Games)

Authors: Walsh Joe, Climstein Mike, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

Abstract:

Whilst there is growing evidence that activity across the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are also many changes involved with the aging process and subsequently the potential for reduced indices of health. The nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted approached is necessary in order to counteract a growing obesity epidemic. By investigating age based trends within a population adhering to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing this relationship. BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071 masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91 years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample. This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing age for both the sample as a whole and these individual subgroups. This evidence of improved classification in one index of health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to the general population) implies there are either improved levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to masters sport at older ages. Demonstration of this proportionately under-investigated World Masters Games population having an improved relationship between BMI and increasing age over the general population is of particular interest in the context of the measures being taken globally to curb an obesity epidemic.

Keywords: Aging, masters athlete, Quetelet Index, sport.

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351 Basic Research for Electroretinogram Moving the Center of the Multifocal Hexagonal Stimulus Array

Authors: Naoto Suzuki

Abstract:

Many ophthalmologists can examine declines in visual sensitivity at arbitrary points on the retina using a precise perimetry device with a fundus camera function. However, the retinal layer causing the decline in visual sensitivity cannot be identified by this method. We studied an electroretinogram (ERG) function that can move the center of the multifocal hexagonal stimulus array in order to investigate cryptogenic diseases, such as macular dystrophy, acute zonal occult outer retinopathy, and multiple evanescent white dot syndrome. An electroretinographic optical system, specifically a perimetric optical system, was added to an experimental device carrying the same optical system as a fundus camera. We also added an infrared camera, a cold mirror, a halogen lamp, and a monitor. The software was generated to show the multifocal hexagonal stimulus array on the monitor using C++Builder XE8 and to move the center of the array up and down as well as back and forth. We used a multifunction I/O device and its design platform LabVIEW for data retrieval. The plate electrodes were used to measure electrodermal activities around the eyes. We used a multifocal hexagonal stimulus array with 37 elements in the software. The center of the multifocal hexagonal stimulus array could be adjusted to the same position as the examination target of the precise perimetry. We successfully added the moving ERG function to the experimental ophthalmologic device.

Keywords: Moving ERG, precise perimetry, retinal layers, visual sensitivity.

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350 Viability of Rice Husk Ash Concrete Brick/Block from Green Electricity in Bangladesh

Authors: Mohammad A. N. M. Shafiqul Karim

Abstract:

As a developing country, Bangladesh has to face numerous challenges. Self Independence in electricity, contributing to climate change by reducing carbon emission and bringing the backward population of society to the mainstream is more challenging for them. Therefore, it is essential to ensure recycled use of local products to the maximum level in every sector. Some private organizations have already worked alongside government to bring the backward population to the mainstream by developing their financial capacities. As rice husk is the largest single category of the total energy supply in Bangladesh. As part of this strategy, rice husk can play a great as a promising renewable energy source, which is readily available, has considerable environmental benefits and can produce electricity and ensure multiple uses of byproducts in construction technology. For the first time in Bangladesh, an experimental multidimensional project depending on Rice Husk Electricity and Rice Husk Ash (RHA) concrete brick/block under Green Eco-Tech Limited has already been started. Project analysis, opportunity, sustainability, the high monitoring component, limitations and finally evaluated data reflecting the viability of establishing more projects using rice husk are discussed in this paper. The by-product of rice husk from the production of green electricity, RHA, can be used for making, in particular, RHA concrete brick/block in Bangladeshi aspects is also discussed here.

Keywords: Project analysis, rice husk, rice husk ash concrete brick/block, compressive strength of rice husk ash concrete brick/block.

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349 Prospects for Sustainable Chemistry in South Africa: A Plural Healthcare System

Authors: Ntokozo C. Mthembu

Abstract:

The notion of sustainable chemistry has become significant in the discourse for a global post-colonial era, including South Africa, especially when it comes to access to the general health system and related policies in relation to disease or ease of human life. In view of the stubborn vestiges of coloniality in the daily lives of indigenous African people in general, the fundamentals of present Western medical and traditional medicine systems and related policies in the democratic era were examined in this study. The situation of traditional healers in relation to current policy was also reviewed. The advent of democracy in South Africa brought about a variety of development opportunities and limitations, particularly with respect to indigenous African knowledge systems such as traditional medicine. There were high hopes that the limitations of previous narrow cultural perspectives would be rectified in the democratic era through development interventions, but some sections of society, such as traditional healers, remain marginalised. The Afrocentric perspective was explored in dissecting government interventions related to traditional medicine. This article highlights that multiple medical systems should be adopted and that health policies should be aligned in order to guarantee mutual respect and to address the remnants of colonialism in South Africa, Africa and the broader global community.

Keywords: Traditional healing system, healers, pluralist healthcare system, post-colonial era.

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348 Automated User Story Driven Approach for Web-Based Functional Testing

Authors: Mahawish Masud, Muhammad Iqbal, M. U. Khan, Farooque Azam

Abstract:

Manual writing of test cases from functional requirements is a time-consuming task. Such test cases are not only difficult to write but are also challenging to maintain. Test cases can be drawn from the functional requirements that are expressed in natural language. However, manual test case generation is inefficient and subject to errors.  In this paper, we have presented a systematic procedure that could automatically derive test cases from user stories. The user stories are specified in a restricted natural language using a well-defined template.  We have also presented a detailed methodology for writing our test ready user stories. Our tool “Test-o-Matic” automatically generates the test cases by processing the restricted user stories. The generated test cases are executed by using open source Selenium IDE.  We evaluate our approach on a case study, which is an open source web based application. Effectiveness of our approach is evaluated by seeding faults in the open source case study using known mutation operators.  Results show that the test case generation from restricted user stories is a viable approach for automated testing of web applications.

Keywords: Automated testing, natural language, user story modeling, software engineering, software testing, test case specification, transformation and automation, user story, web application testing.

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347 Recent Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens and Ducks in Egypt: Pathological Study

Authors: A.A Abou-Rawash, H.S. Abd EL-Hamed. H A. Abd-Ellatieff, S. M. Elsamanoudy

Abstract:

Clinically, chickens showed progressively developed clinical signs represented by sever cyanosis of the comb and wattles with hemorrhage at the shanks, depression, and ruffling feathers with loss of appetite and high daily mortalities. The ducks showed severe neurological signs as torticollus, seizures and inability to stand with mild signs of diarrhea and depression. Grossly, chickens showed hemorrhages and congestion in most of the organs particularly lung, liver, spleen, trachea and kidney. The examined ducks showed multiple petechial hemorrhages, multifocal hemorrhagic necrosis in the pancreas, pulmonary edema, congestion and hemorrhage in meninges and congestion in the skeletal muscles. Histopathology revealed severe congestion and hemorrhages in most of the organs particularly lung, liver and kidney. Microscopic erosive tracheitis, sever pulmonary congestion and perivascular oedema and lymphogranulocytic pneumonia were constant. The liver showed hepatocyts necrosis and lympho-granulocytic infiltration. The kidney showed renal tubular necrosis and diffuse congestion. Multifocal, neuronal necrosis, hemorrhages, multifocal glial nodules, lympho- histiocytic perivascular cuffing, and occasional neuronophagia were observed in the cerebrum. Other organs showed moderate changes.

Keywords: Chicken, Ducks, H5N1 Avian Influenza, Pathology

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346 Resilience Assessment for Power Distribution Systems

Authors: Berna Eren Tokgoz, Mahdi Safa, Seokyon Hwang

Abstract:

Power distribution systems are essential and crucial infrastructures for the development and maintenance of a sustainable society. These systems are extremely vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The assessment of resilience focuses on preparedness and mitigation actions under pre-disaster conditions. It also concentrates on response and recovery actions under post-disaster situations. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the resilience of electric power distribution poles against wind-related events. The proposed methodology can improve the accuracy and rapidity of the evaluation of the conditions and the assessment of the resilience of poles. The methodology provides a metric for the evaluation of the resilience of poles under pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions. The metric was developed using mathematical expressions for physical forces that involve various variables, such as physical dimensions of the pole, the inclination of the pole, and wind speed. A three-dimensional imaging technology (photogrammetry) was used to determine the inclination of poles. Based on expert opinion, the proposed metric was used to define zones to visualize resilience. Visual representation of resilience is helpful for decision makers to prioritize their resources before and after experiencing a wind-related disaster. Multiple electric poles in the City of Beaumont, TX were used in a case study to evaluate the proposed methodology.  

Keywords: Photogrammetry, power distribution systems, resilience metric, system resilience, wind-related disasters.

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345 Effect of Zidovudine on Hematological and Virologic Parameters among Female Sex Workers Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in North – Western Nigeria

Authors: N. M. Sani, E. D. Jatau, O. S. Olonitola, M. Y. Gwarzo, P. Moodley, N. S. Mujahid

Abstract:

Hemoglobin (HB) indicates anemia level and by extension may reflect the nutritional level and perhaps the immunity of an individual. Some antiretroviral drugs like Zidovudine are known to cause anemia in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). A cross sectional study using demographic data and blood specimen from 218 female commercial sex workers attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics was conducted between December, 2009 and July, 2011 to assess the effect of zidovudine on hematologic, and RNA viral load of female sex workers receiving antiretroviral treatment in north western Nigeria. Anemia is a common and serious complication of both HIV infection and its treatment. In the setting of HIV infection, anemia has been associated with decreased quality of life, functional status, and survival. Antiretroviral therapy, particularly the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), has been associated with a decrease in the incidence and severity of anemia in HIV-infected patients who have received a HAART regimen for at least 1 year. In this study, result has shown that of the 218 patients, 26 with hemoglobin count between 5.1 – 10g/dl were observed to have the highest viral load count of 300,000 – 350,000copies/ml. It was also observed that most patients (190) with HB of 10.1 – 15.0g/dl had viral load count of 200,000 – 250,000 copies /ml. An inverse relationship therefore exists i.e. the lower the hemoglobin level, the higher the viral load count even though the test statistics did not show any significance between the two (P = 0.206). This shows that multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that anemia was associated with a CD4 + cell count below 50/μL, female sex workers with a viral load above 100,000 copies/mL, who use zidovudine. Severe anemia was less prevalent in this study population than in historical comparators; however, mild to moderate anemia rates remain high. The study therefore recommends that hematological and virologic parameters be monitored closely in patients receiving first line ART regimen.

Keywords: Female sex worker, Zidovudine, Hemoglobin, Anemia.

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