Search results for: risk compensation
920 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model
Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani
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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 870919 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly
Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute
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The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1524918 Analysis of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies: Case Study of Supply Chain Disruptions
Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa
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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.Keywords: Supply chain disruptions, supply chain management, supply chain resilience, just-in-time production, lean manufacturing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3466917 Effect of Distributed Generators on the Optimal Operation of Distribution Networks
Authors: J. Olamaei , T. Niknam, M. Nayeripour
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This paper presents an approach for daily optimal operation of distribution networks considering Distributed Generators (DGs). Due to private ownership of DGs, a cost based compensation method is used to encourage DGs in active and reactive power generation. The objective function is summation of electrical energy generated by DGs and substation bus (main bus) in the next day. A genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimal operation problem. The approach is tested on an IEEE34 buses distribution feeder.
Keywords: Distributed Generator, Daily Optimal Operation, Genetic Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1620916 A New Approach for Prioritization of Failure Modes in Design FMEA using ANOVA
Authors: Sellappan Narayanagounder, Karuppusami Gurusami
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The traditional Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) uses Risk Priority Number (RPN) to evaluate the risk level of a component or process. The RPN index is determined by calculating the product of severity, occurrence and detection indexes. The most critically debated disadvantage of this approach is that various sets of these three indexes may produce an identical value of RPN. This research paper seeks to address the drawbacks in traditional FMEA and to propose a new approach to overcome these shortcomings. The Risk Priority Code (RPC) is used to prioritize failure modes, when two or more failure modes have the same RPN. A new method is proposed to prioritize failure modes, when there is a disagreement in ranking scale for severity, occurrence and detection. An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is used to compare means of RPN values. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) statistical analysis package is used to analyze the data. The results presented are based on two case studies. It is found that the proposed new methodology/approach resolves the limitations of traditional FMEA approach.Keywords: Failure mode and effects analysis, Risk priority code, Critical failure mode, Analysis of variance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5419915 Robust Fuzzy Observer Design for Nonlinear Systems
Authors: Michal Polanský, C. Ardil
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This paper shows a new method for design of fuzzy observers for Takagi-Sugeno systems. The method is based on Linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and it allows to insert H constraint into the design procedure. The speed of estimation can tuned be specification of a decay rate of the observer closed loop system. We discuss here also the influence of parametric uncertainties at the output control system stability.
Keywords: H norm, Linear Matrix Inequalities, Observers, Takagi-Sugeno Systems, Parallel Distributed Compensation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2531914 Assessment-Assisted and Relationship-Based Financial Advising: Using an Empirical Assessment to Understand Personal Investor Risk Tolerance in Professional Advising Relationships
Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen
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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.
Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 943913 Numerical Study on the Static Characteristics of Novel Aerostatic Thrust Bearings Possessing Elastomer Capillary Restrictor and Bearing Surface
Authors: S. W. Lo, S.-H. Lu, Y. H. Guo, L.-C. Hsu
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In this paper a novel design of aerostatic thrust bearing is proposed and is analyzed numerically. The capillary restrictor and bearing disk are made of elastomer like silicone and PU. The viscoelasticity of elastomer helps the capillary expand for more air flux and at the same time, allows conicity of the bearing surface to form when the air pressure is enhanced. Therefore the bearing has the better ability of passive compensation. In the present example, as compared with the typical model, the new designs can nearly double the load capability and offer four times static stiffness.
Keywords: Aerostatic, bearing, elastomer, static stiffness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1914912 Impovement of a Label Extraction Method for a Risk Search System
Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ryohei Orihara
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This paper proposes an improvement method of classification efficiency in a classification model. The model is used in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.Keywords: Text mining, Risk search system, Corporate reputation, Bulletin board site, Ensemble learning
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1318911 Future Outlook and Current Situation for Security of Gas Supply in Eastern Baltic Region
Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel
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Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.
Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1895910 Using the Schunt Active Power Filter for Compensation of the Distorted and Umbalanced Power System Voltage
Authors: I. Habi, M. Bouguerra, D. Ouahdi, H. Meglouli
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In this paper, we apply the PQ theory with shunt active power filter in an unbalanced and distorted power system voltage to compensate the perturbations generated by non linear load. The power factor is also improved in the current source. The PLL system is used to extract the fundamental component of the even sequence under conditions mentioned of the power system voltage.
Keywords: Converter, power filter, harmonies, non-linear load, pq theory, PLL, unbalanced voltages, distorted voltages.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1593909 An Intelligent Fuzzy-Neural Diagnostic System for Osteoporosis Risk Assessment
Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin
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In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1931908 Copper Contamination in the Sediments of Northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan
Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong
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The distribution, enrichment, accumulation, and potential ecological risk of copper (Cu) in the surface sediments of northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from 12 locations of northern Kaohsiung Harbor were collected and characterized for Cu, aluminum, water content, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, total grease and grain size. Results showed that the Cu concentrations varied from 6.9–244 mg/kg with an average of 109±66 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cu reveals that the Cu concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor entrance region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of Cu pollution. Results from the enrichment factor and geo-accumulation index analyses imply that the sediments collected from the river mouth can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none to medium and moderate accumulation of Cu, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk.
Keywords: Accumulation, ecological risk, enrichment, copper, sediment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1326907 Risk Based Building Information Modeling (BIM) for Urban Infrastructure Transportation Project
Authors: Debasis Sarkar
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.
Keywords: Building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2116906 Surveying Earthquake Vulnerabilities of District 13 of Kabul City, Afghanistan
Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi
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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.
Keywords: Earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1622905 Economic Evaluation Offshore Wind Project under Uncertainly and Risk Circumstances
Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti
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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.
Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 785904 The Impact of Recommendation Sources on Online Purchase Intentions: The Moderating Effects of Gender and Perceived Risk
Authors: Chiao-Chen Chang, Yang-Chieh Chin
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This study examines the issue of recommendation sources from the perspectives of gender and consumers- perceived risk, and validates a model for the antecedents of consumer online purchases. The method of obtaining quantitative data was that of the instrument of a survey questionnaire. Data were collected via questionnaires from 396 undergraduate students aged 18-24, and a multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify causal relationships. Empirical findings established the link between recommendation sources (word-of-mouth, advertising, and recommendation systems) and the likelihood of making online purchases and demonstrated the role of gender and perceived risk as moderators in this context. The results showed that the effects of word-of-mouth on online purchase intentions were stronger than those of advertising and recommendation systems. In addition, female consumers have less experience with online purchases, so they may be more likely than males to refer to recommendations during the decision-making process. The findings of the study will help marketers to address the recommendation factor which influences consumers- intention to purchase and to improve firm performances to meet consumer needs.Keywords: Recommendation sources, Online purchaseintentions, Gender differences, Perceived risk.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3004903 A High Precision Temperature Insensitive Current and Voltage Reference Generator
Authors: Kimberly Jane S. Uy, Patricia Angela Reyes-Abu, Wen Yaw Chung
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A high precision temperature insensitive current and voltage reference generator is presented. It is specifically developed for temperature compensated oscillator. The circuit, designed using MXIC 0.5um CMOS technology, has an operating voltage that ranges from 2.6V to 5V and generates a voltage of 1.21V and a current of 6.38 ӴA. It exhibits a variation of ±0.3nA for the current reference and a stable output for voltage reference as the temperature is varied from 0°C to 70°C. The power supply rejection ratio obtained without any filtering capacitor at 100Hz and 10MHz is -30dB and -12dB respectively.
Keywords: Current reference, voltage reference, threshold voltage, temperature compensation, mobility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2339902 Analysis of the Fire Hazard Posed by Petrol Stations in Stellenbosch and the Degree of Risk Acknowledgement in Land-Use Planning
Authors: K. Qonono
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Despite the significance and economic benefits of petrol stations in South Africa, these still pose a huge risk of fire and explosion threatening public safety. This research paper examines the extent to which land-use planning in Stellenbosch, South Africa, considers the fire risk posed by petrol stations and the implications for public safety as well as preparedness for large fires or explosions. To achieve this, the research identified the land-use types around petrol stations in Stellenbosch and determined the extent to which their locations comply with the local, national, and international land-use planning regulations. A mixed research method consisting of the collection and analysis of geospatial data and qualitative data was applied, where petrol stations within a six-kilometre radius of Stellenbosch’s town centre were utilised as study sites. The research examined the risk of fires/explosions at these petrol stations. The research investigated Stellenbosch Municipality’s institutional preparedness to respond in the event of a fire/explosion at these petrol stations. The research observed that siting of petrol stations does not comply with local, national, and international good practices, thus exposing the surrounding developments to fires and explosions. Land-use planning practice does not consider hazards created by petrol stations. Despite the potential for major fires at petrol stations, Stellenbosch Municipality’s level of preparedness to respond to petrol station fires appears low due to the prioritisation of more frequent events.
Keywords: Petrol stations, technological hazard, DRR, land-use planning, risk analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 116901 An ANN-Based Predictive Model for Diagnosis and Forecasting of Hypertension
Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe
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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.
Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1654900 Awareness about HIV-Infection among HIV-Infected Individuals Attending Medical Moscow Center, Russia
Authors: Marina Nosik, Irina Rymanova, Sergei Sevostyanihin, Natalya Sergeeva, Alexander Sobkin
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This paper presents results of the survey regarding the awareness about HIV/AIDS among HIV-infected individuals. A questionnaire covering various aspects of HIV-infection was conducted among 110 HIV-infected individuals who attended the G.A. Zaharyan Moscow Tuberculosis Clinic, Department for treatment of TB patients with HIV. The questionnaire included questions about modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS, as well as questions about age, gender, education and employment status. The survey revealed that the respondents in the whole had a good knowledge regarding modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS: about 83,6% male respondents and 85,7% female respondents gave an accurate answers regarding the HIV-infection. However, the overwhelming majority of the study participants, that is, 88,5% men and 98% women, was quite ignorant about the risk of acquiring HIV through saliva and toothbrush of HIV-infected individual. Though that risk is rather insignificant, it is still biologically possible. And this gap in knowledge needs to be filled. As the study showed another point of concern was the fact, that despite the knowledge of HIV transmission risk through unprotected sex about 40% percent of HIVpositive men and 25% of HIV-positive women did not insist on using condoms with their sexual partners. These findings indicate that there are still some aspects about HIV-infection which needed to be clarified and explained through more detailed and specific educational programs.Keywords: AIDS, HIV transmission risks, HIV misconceptions, risk behavior.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2020899 Automated Optic Disc Detection in Retinal Images of Patients with Diabetic Retinopathy and Risk of Macular Edema
Authors: Arturo Aquino, Manuel Emilio Gegundez, Diego Marin
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In this paper, a new automated methodology to detect the optic disc (OD) automatically in retinal images from patients with risk of being affected by Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) and Macular Edema (ME) is presented. The detection procedure comprises two independent methodologies. On one hand, a location methodology obtains a pixel that belongs to the OD using image contrast analysis and structure filtering techniques and, on the other hand, a boundary segmentation methodology estimates a circular approximation of the OD boundary by applying mathematical morphology, edge detection techniques and the Circular Hough Transform. The methodologies were tested on a set of 1200 images composed of 229 retinographies from patients affected by DR with risk of ME, 431 with DR and no risk of ME and 540 images of healthy retinas. The location methodology obtained 98.83% success rate, whereas the OD boundary segmentation methodology obtained good circular OD boundary approximation in 94.58% of cases. The average computational time measured over the total set was 1.67 seconds for OD location and 5.78 seconds for OD boundary segmentation.
Keywords: Diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, optic disc, automated detection, automated segmentation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2782898 Ecological Risk Assessment of Poly Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the North Port, Malaysia
Authors: Belin Tavakoly Sany, Aishah Salleh, Abdul Halim Sulaiman, Ghazaleh Monazami Tehrani
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The pollution of sediments sampled from the North Port by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was investigated. Concentrations of PAHs estimated in the port sediments ranged from 199 to 2851.2 μg/kg dw. The highest concentration was found which is closed to the Berth line, this locations affected by intensive shipping activities and Land based runoff and they were dominated by the high molecular weight PAHs (4–6- rings). Source identification showed that PAHs originated mostly from the pyrogenic source either from the combustion of fossil fuels, grass, wood and coal (majority of the samples). Ecological Risk Assessment on the port sediments presented that slightly adverse ecological effects to biological community are expected to occur at the vicinity of the stations 1 and 4. Thus PAHs are not considered as pollutants of concern in the North Port.Keywords: PAHs, North Port, Ecological Risk, sediment
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1829897 Urban Areas Management in Developing Countries: Analysis of the Urban Areas Crossed with Risk of Storm Water Drains, Aswan-Egypt
Authors: Omar Hamdy, Schichen Zhao, Hussein Abd El-Atty, Ayman Ragab, Muhammad Salem
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One of the most risky areas in Aswan is Abouelreesh, which is suffering from flood disasters, as heavy deluge inundates urban areas causing considerable damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the main problem was the urban sprawl towards this risky area. This paper aims to identify the urban areas located in the risk areas prone to flash floods. Analyzing this phenomenon needs a lot of data to ensure satisfactory results; however, in this case the official data and field data were limited, and therefore, free sources of satellite data were used. This paper used ArcGIS tools to obtain the storm water drains network by analyzing DEM files. Additionally, historical imagery in Google Earth was studied to determine the age of each building. The last step was to overlay the urban area layer and the storm water drains layer to identify the vulnerable areas. The results of this study would be helpful to urban planners and government officials to make the disasters risk estimation and develop primary plans to recover the risky area, especially urban areas located in torrents.
Keywords: Risk area, DEM, storm water drains, GIS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 888896 Human Settlement, Land Management and Health in Sub Saharan Cities
Authors: H.B. Nguendo Yongsi
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An epidemiological cross sectional study was undertaken in Yaoundé in 2002 and updated in 2005. Focused on health within the city, the objectives were to measure diarrheal prevalence and to identify the risk factors associated with them. Results of microbiological examinations have revealed an urban average prevalence rate of 14.5%. Access to basic services in the living environment appears to be an important risk factor for diarrheas. Statistical and spatial analyses conducted have revealed that prevalence of diarrheal diseases vary among the two main types of settlement (informal and planned). More importantly, this study shows that, diarrhea prevalence rates (notably bacterial and parasitic diarrheas) vary according to the sub- category of settlements. The study draws a number of theoretical and policy implications for researchers and policy decision makers.Keywords: Cameroon, diarrheal diseases, health risk factor, planned and spontaneous settlement, urban policy, urbanization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1653895 Forest Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study from East Bokaro Coal Mining Area in India
Authors: Sujata Upgupta, Prasoon Kumar Singh
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The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km2 of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.
Keywords: Coal mining, forest, indicators, vulnerability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1154894 Suicide Wrongful Death: Standard of Care Problems Involving the Inaccurate Discernment of Lethal Risk When Focusing on the Elicitation of Suicide Ideation
Authors: Bill D. Geis, Frederick Newman
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Suicide and wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from US state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. But suicide ideation, in the matter of suicide risk determination, may be a necessary but insufficient target of lethal suicide risk assessment. Assessment of near-term suicide risk—assessment that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation and relates to acute crisis variables—is likely needed. Specifically, such other or additional suicide risk variable assessment may be required in the context of lethal suicide risk situations, as opposed to the discernment of general, nonlethal suicide behavior as a standard of practice (whether a patient is having suicidal thoughts or exhibiting an ambivalent suicide attempt potential). In the current study, verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The Lethal Suicide Risk Assessment, Acute Model, and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training and become the legal standard of care for expected clinical behavior. Without this expanded clinical assessment perspective, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current knowledge—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.
Keywords: Forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 230893 Risk Management Strategy for Protecting Cultural Heritage: Case Study of the Institute of Egypt
Authors: Amany A. Ragheb, Ghada Ragheb, Abd ElRahman A.
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Egypt has a countless heritage of mansions, castles, cities, towns, villages, industrial and manufacturing sites. This richness of heritage provides endless and matchless prospects for culture. Despite being famous worldwide, Egypt’s heritage still is in constant need of protection. Political conflicts and religious revolutions form a direct threat to buildings in various areas, historic, archaeological sites, and religious monuments. Egypt has witnessed two revolutions in less than 60 years; both had an impact on its architectural heritage. In this paper, the authors aim to review legal and policy framework to protect the cultural heritage and present the risk management strategy for cultural heritage in conflict. Through a review of selected international models of devastated architectural heritage in conflict zones and highlighting some of their changes, we can learn from the experiences of other countries to assist towards the development of a methodology to halt the plundering of architectural heritage. Finally, the paper makes an effort to enhance the formulation of a risk management strategy for protection and conservation of cultural heritage, through which to end the plundering of Egypt’s architectural legacy in the Egyptian community (revolutions, 1952 and 2011); and by presenting to its surrounding community the benefits derived from maintaining it.
Keywords: Cultural heritage, legal regulation, risk management, preservation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1408892 The Innovative Information System for Systemic Approach of the Sustainability in the Enterprise
Authors: M. Izvercianu, L. Ivascu
Abstract:
This paper presents an innovative computer system that contributes to sustainable development of the enterprise. The research refers to a rethinking of traditional systems of collaboration and risk assessment, present in any organization, leading to a sustainable enterprise. This concept integrates emerging tools that allow the implementation and exploitation of the collective intelligence of the enterprise, allowing the exchange of contextual, agile and simplified information, and collaboration with networks of customers and partners in an environment where risks are controlled. Risk assessment is done in a systemic way: the enterprise as the system compared to the contained departments and the enterprise as a subsystem compared to: families of international standards and sustainability-s responsibilities. The enterprise, in this systemic vision, responds to the requirements that any existing system to operate continuously in an indefinite future without reaching key resource depletion. The research is done by integrating collaborative science, engineering, management, psychology, obtaining thus a cornerstone of sustainable development of the enterprise.Keywords: Enterprise 2.0, ISO, Risk management, Sustainable development
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1686891 Overview of CARDIOSENSOR Project on the Development of a Nanosensor for Assessing the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease
Authors: A.C. Duarte, C.I.L. Justino, K. Duarte, A.C. Freitas, R. Pereira, P. Chaves, P. Bettencourt, S. Cardoso, T.A.P. Rocha-Santos
Abstract:
This paper aims at overviewing the topics of a research project (CARDIOSENSOR) on the field of health sciences (biomaterials and biomedical engineering). The project has focused on the development of a nanosensor for the assessment of the risk of cardiovascular diseases by the monitoring of C-reactive protein (CRP), which has been currently considered as the best validated inflammatory biomarker associated to cardiovascular diseases. The project involves tasks such as: 1) the development of sensor devices based on field effect transistors (FET): assembly, optimization and validation; 2) application of sensors to the detection of CRP in standard solutions and comparison with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); and 3) application of sensors to real samples such as blood and saliva and evaluation of their ability to predict the risk of cardiovascular disease.
Keywords: Carbon nanotubes field effect transistors, cardiovascular diseases, C-reactive protein, sensor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2029