Search results for: infectious vasculitis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 451

Search results for: infectious vasculitis

361 Management of Urinary Tract Infections by Nurse Practitioners in a Canadian Pediatric Emergency Department: A Rretrospective Cohort Study

Authors: T. Mcgraw, F. N. Morin, N. Desai

Abstract:

Background: Antimicrobial resistance is a critical issue in global health care and a significant contributor to increased patient morbidity and mortality. Suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) is a key area of inappropriate antibiotic prescription in pediatrics. Management patterns of infectious diseases have been shown to vary by provider type within a single setting. The aim of this study was to assess compliance with national UTI management guidelines by nurse practitioners in a pediatric emergency department (ED). Methods: This was a post-hoc analysis of a retrospective cohort study to review and evaluate visits to a tertiary care freestanding pediatric emergency department. Patients were included if they were 60 days to 36 months old and discharged with a diagnosis of UTI or ‘rule-out UTI’ between July 2015 and July 2020. Primary outcome measure was proportion of visits seen by Nurse Practitioners (NP) which were associated with national guideline compliance in the diagnosis and treatment of suspected UTI. We performed descriptive statistics and comparative analyses to determine differences in practice patterns between NPs, and physicians. Results: A total of 636 charts were reviewed, of which 402 patients met inclusion criteria. 17 patients were treated by NPs, 385 were treated by either Pediatric Emergency Medicine physicians (PEM) or non-PEM physicians. Overall, the proportion of infants receiving guideline-compliant care was 25.9% (21.8-30.4%). Of those who were prescribed antibiotics, 79.6% (74.7-83.8%) received first line guideline recommended therapy and 58.9% (53.8-63.8%) received fully compliant therapy with respect to age, dose, duration, and frequency. In patients treated by NPs, 16/17 (94%(95% CI:73.0-99.0)) required antibiotics, 15/16 (93%(95% CI: 71.7-98.9)) were treated with first line agent (cephalexin), 8/16 (50%(95% CI:28-72)) were guideline compliant of dose and duration. 5/8 (63%(95% CI:30.6-86.3)) were noncompliant for dose being too high. There was no difference in receiving guideline compliant empiric antibiotic therapy between physicians and nurse practitioners (OR: 0.837 CI: 0.302-2.69). Conclusion: In this post-hoc analysis, guideline noncompliance by nurse practitioners is common in children tested and treated for UTIs in a pediatric emergency department. Care by a Nurse Practitioner was not associated with greater rate of noncompliance than care by a Pediatric Emergency Medicine physician. Future appropriately powered studies may focus on confirming these results.

Keywords: antibiotic stewardship, infectious disease, nurse practitioner, urinary tract infection

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360 Study and Analysis of a Susceptible Infective Susceptible Mathematical Model with Density Dependent Migration

Authors: Jitendra Singh, Vivek Kumar

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In this paper, a susceptible infective susceptible mathematical model is proposed and analyzed where the migration of human population is given by migration function. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by direct contact of susceptible and infective populations with constant contact rate. The equilibria and their stability are studied by using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the spread of infectious disease increases when human population immigration increases in the habitat but it decreases if emigration increases.

Keywords: SIS (Susceptible Infective Susceptible) model, migration function, susceptible, stability

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359 Knowledge, Attitude and Practice on Swimming Pool Hygiene and Assessment of Microbial Contamination in Educational Institution in Selangor

Authors: Zarini Ismail, Mas Ayu Arina Mohd Anuwar, Ling Chai Ying, Tengku Zetty Maztura Tengku Jamaluddin, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Nadeeya Ayn Umaisara Mohamad Nor

Abstract:

The transmission of infectious diseases can occur anywhere, including in the swimming pools. A large number of swimmers turnover and poor hygienic behaviours will increase the occurrence of direct and indirect water contamination. A wide variety of infections such as the gastrointestinal illnesses, skin rash, eye infections, ear infections and respiratory illnesses had been reported following the exposure to the contaminated water. Understanding the importance of pool hygiene with a healthy practice will reduce the risk of infection. The aims of the study are to investigate the knowledge, attitude and practices on pool hygiene among swimming pool users and to determine the microbial contaminants in swimming pools. A cross-sectional study was conducted using self-administered questionnaires to 600 swimming pool users from four swimming pools belong to the three educational institutions in Selangor. Data was analyzed using SPSS Statistics version 22.0 for Windows. The knowledge, attitude and practice of the study participants were analyzed using the sum score based on Bloom’s cut-off point (80%). Having a score above the cut-off point was classified as having high levels of knowledge, positive attitude and good practice. The association between socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge and attitude with practice on pool hygiene was determined by Chi-Square test. The physicochemical parameters and the microbial contamination were determined using a standard method for examination of waste and wastewater. Of the 600 respondents, 465 (77.5%) were females with the mean age of 21 years old. Most of the respondents are the students (98.8%) which belong to the three educational institutions in Selangor. Overall, the majority of the respondents (89.2%) had low knowledge on pool hygiene, but had positive attitudes (91.3%). Whereas only half of the respondents (50%) practice good hygiene while using the swimming pools. There was a significant association between practice level on pool hygiene with knowledge (p < 0.001) and also the attitude (p < 0.001). The measurements of the physicochemical parameters showed that all 4 swimming pools had low levels of pH and two had low levels of free chlorine. However, all the water samples tested were negative for Escherichia coli. The findings of this study suggested that high knowledge and positive attitude towards pool hygiene ensure a good practice among swimming pool users. Thus, it is recommended that educational interventions should be given to the swimming pool users to increase their knowledge regarding the pool hygiene and this will prevent the unnecessary outbreak of infectious diseases related to swimming pool.

Keywords: attitude, knowledge, pool hygiene, practice

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358 Enzyme Inhibition Activity of Schiff Bases Against Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Using Molecular Docking

Authors: Imran Muhammad

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The main cause of infectious disease in the modern world is Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (MT). To combat tuberculosis, new and efficient drugs are an urgent need in the modern world. Schif bases are potent for their biological pharmacophore activity. Thus we selected different Vanillin-based Schiff bases for their binding activity against target enzymes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that is (DprE1 (decaprenyl phosphoryl-β-D-ribose 2′-epimerase), and DNA gyrase subunit-A), using molecular docking. We evaluate the inhibition potential, interaction, and binding mode of these compounds with the target enzymes.

Keywords: schiff bases, tuberculosis, DNA gyrase, DprE1, docking

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357 Impact of Pandemics on Cities and Societies

Authors: Deepak Jugran

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify how past Pandemics shaped social evolution and cities. Methodology: A historical and comparative analysis of major historical pandemics in human history their origin, transmission route, biological response and the aftereffects. A Comprehensive pre & post pandemic scenario and focuses selectively on major issues and pandemics that have deepest & lasting impact on society with available secondary data. Results: Past pandemics shaped the behavior of human societies and their cities and made them more resilient biologically, intellectually & socially endorsing the theory of “Survival of the fittest” by Sir Charles Darwin. Pandemics & Infectious diseases are here to stay and as a human society, we need to strengthen our collective response & preparedness besides evolving mechanisms for strict controls on inter-continental movements of people, & especially animals who become carriers for these viruses. Conclusion: Pandemics always resulted in great mortality, but they also improved the overall individual human immunology & collective social response; at the same time, they also improved the public health system of cities, health delivery systems, water, sewage distribution system, institutionalized various welfare reforms and overall collective social response by the societies. It made human beings more resilient biologically, intellectually, and socially hence endorsing the theory of “AGIL” by Prof Talcott Parsons. Pandemics & infectious diseases are here to stay and as humans, we need to strengthen our city response & preparedness besides evolving mechanisms for strict controls on inter-continental movements of people, especially animals who always acted as carriers for these novel viruses. Pandemics over the years acted like natural storms, mitigated the prevailing social imbalances and laid the foundation for scientific discoveries. We understand that post-Covid-19, institutionalized city, state and national mechanisms will get strengthened and the recommendations issued by the various expert groups which were ignored earlier will now be implemented for reliable anticipation, better preparedness & help to minimize the impact of Pandemics. Our analysis does not intend to present chronological findings of pandemics but rather focuses selectively on major pandemics in history, their causes and how they wiped out an entire city’s population and influenced the societies, their behavior and facilitated social evolution.

Keywords: pandemics, Covid-19, social evolution, cities

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356 Detection of Chaos in General Parametric Model of Infectious Disease

Authors: Javad Khaligh, Aghileh Heydari, Ali Akbar Heydari

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Mathematical epidemiological models for the spread of disease through a population are used to predict the prevalence of a disease or to study the impacts of treatment or prevention measures. Initial conditions for these models are measured from statistical data collected from a population since these initial conditions can never be exact, the presence of chaos in mathematical models has serious implications for the accuracy of the models as well as how epidemiologists interpret their findings. This paper confirms the chaotic behavior of a model for dengue fever and SI by investigating sensitive dependence, bifurcation, and 0-1 test under a variety of initial conditions.

Keywords: epidemiological models, SEIR disease model, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, 0-1 test

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355 Statistical Analysis of Interferon-γ for the Effectiveness of an Anti-Tuberculous Treatment

Authors: Shishen Xie, Yingda L. Xie

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially serious infectious disease that remains a health concern. The Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is a blood test to find out if an individual is tuberculous positive or negative. This study applies statistical analysis to the clinical data of interferon-gamma levels of seventy-three subjects who diagnosed pulmonary TB in an anti-tuberculous treatment. Data analysis is performed to determine if there is a significant decline in interferon-gamma levels for the subjects during a period of six months, and to infer if the anti-tuberculous treatment is effective.

Keywords: data analysis, interferon gamma release assay, statistical methods, tuberculosis infection

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354 Immunoglobulin G Glycosylation Profile in Influenza and COVID-19 Infected Patients

Authors: Marina Kljaković-Gašpić Batinjan, Tea Petrović, Frano Vučković, Irzal Hadžibegović, Barbara Radovani, Ivana Jurin, Lovorka Đerek, Eva Huljev, Alemka Markotić, Ivica Lukšić, Irena Trbojević-Akmačić, Gordan Lauc, Ivan Gudelj, Rok Čivljak

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Immunoglobulin G has essential role in defense against infectious diseases, but its role cannot be fully recognized without understanding of changes in its N-glycans attached to the Fc domain. We analyzed and compared total IgG glycome in plasma samples of patients with influenza, patients with COVID-19 and healthy controls. We found similarities in IgG glycosylation changes in COVID-19 survivors and influenza patients that could be the consequence of adequate immune response to enveloped viruses, while observed changes in deceased COVID-19 patients may indicate its deviation.

Keywords: COVID-19, glycosylation, immunoglobulin G, influenza, pneumonia, viral infection

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353 Drug Reaction with Eosinophilia and Systemic Symptoms (Dress) Syndrome Presenting as Multi-Organ Failure

Authors: Keshari Shrestha, Philip Vatterott

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Introduction: Drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) syndrome is a rare and potentially fatal drug-related syndrome. DRESS classically presents with a diffuse maculopapular rash, fevers, and eosinophilia more than three weeks after drug exposure. DRESS can present with multi-organ involvement, with liver damage being the most common and severe. Pulmonary involvement is a less common manifestation and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. Chest imaging is often nonspecific, and symptoms can range from mild cough to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) . This is a case of a 49-year-old female with a history of recent clostridium difficile colitis status post treatment with oral vancomycin who presented with rash, acute liver and kidney failure, as well as diffuse nodular alveolar lung opacities concerning for DRESS syndrome with multi-organ involvement. Clinical Course: This patient initially presented to an outside hospital with clostridium difficile colitis, acute liver injury, and acute kidney injury. She developed a desquamating maculopapular rash in the setting of recent oral vancomycin, meloxicam, and furosemide initiation. She was hospitalized on two additional occasions with worsening altered mental status, liver injury, and acute kidney injury and was initiated on intermittent hemodialysis. Notably, she was found to have systemic eosinophilia (4100 cells/microliter) several weeks prior. She was transferred to this institution for further management where she was found to have encephalopathy, jaundice, lower extremity edema, and diffuse bilateral rhonchorous breath sounds on pulmonary examination. The patient was started on methylprednisolone for suspected DRESS syndrome. She underwent an evaluation for alternative causes of her organ failure. Her workup included a negative infectious, autoimmune, metabolic, toxic, and malignant work-up. Abdominal computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound were remarkable for evidence of hepatic steatosis and possible cirrhotic morphology. Additionally, a chest CT demonstrated diffuse and symmetric nodular alveolar lung opacities with peripheral sparing not consistent with acute respiratory distress syndrome or edema. Ultimately, her condition continued to decline, and she required intubation on several occasions. On hospital day 25 she succumbed to distributive shock in the setting of probable sepsis and multi-organ failure. Discussion: DRESS syndrome occurs in 1 in 1,000 to 10,000 patients with a mortality rate of around 10%. Anti-convulsant, anti-bacterial, anti-viral, and sulfonamide drugs are the most common drugs implicated in the development of DRESS syndrome; however, the list of offending agents is extensive . The diagnosis of DRESS syndrome is made after excluding other causes of disease such as infectious and autoimmune etiologies. The RegiSCAR scoring system is used to diagnose DRESS syndrome with 2-3 points indicating possible disease, 4-5 probable disease, and >5 definite disease. This patient scored a 7 on the RegiSCAR scale for eosinophilia, rash, organ involvement, and exclusion of other causes (infectious and autoimmune). While the pharmacologic trigger in this case is unknown, it is speculated to be caused by vancomycin, meloxicam, or furosemide due to the favorable timeline of initiation. Despite aggressive treatment, DRESS syndrome can often be fatal. Because of this, early diagnosis and treatment of patients with suspected DRESS syndrome is imperative.

Keywords: drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms, multi-organ failure, pulmonary involvement, renal failure

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352 The Lopsided Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases in India: Evidences from the Decade 2004-2014

Authors: Kajori Banerjee, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

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India is a part of the ongoing globalization, contemporary convergence, industrialization and technical advancement that is taking place world-wide. Some of the manifestations of this evolution is rapid demographic, socio-economic, epidemiological and health transition. There has been a considerable increase in non-communicable diseases due to change in lifestyle. This study aims to assess the direction of burden of disease and compare the pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular, endocrine, metabolic and nutritional diseases. The change in prevalence in a ten-year period (2004-2014) is further decomposed to determine the net contribution of various socio-economic and demographic covariates. The present study uses the recent 71st (2014) and 60th (2004) rounds of National Sample Survey. The pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular (CVD), endocrine, metabolic and nutritional (EMN) diseases during 2004-2014 is calculated by Prevalence Rates (PR), Hospitalization Rates (HR) and Case Fatality Rates (CFR). The prevalence of non-communicable diseases are further used as a dependent variable in a logit regression to find the effect of various social, economic and demographic factors on the chances of suffering from the particular disease. Multivariate decomposition technique further assists in determining the net contribution of socio-economic and demographic covariates. This paper upholds evidences of stagnation of the burden of communicable diseases (CD) and rapid increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) uniformly for all population sub-groups in India. CFR for CVD has increased drastically in 2004-2014. Logit regression indicates the chances of suffering from CVD and EMN is significantly higher among the urban residents, older ages, females, widowed/ divorced and separated individuals. Decomposition displays ample proof that improvement in quality of life markers like education, urbanization, longevity of life has positively contributed in increasing the NCD prevalence rate. In India’s current epidemiological phase, compression theory of morbidity is in action as a significant rise in the probability of contracting the NCDs over the time period among older ages is observed. Age is found to play a vital contributor in increasing the probability of having CVD and EMN over the study decade 2004-2014 in the nationally representative sample of National Sample Survey.

Keywords: cardio-vascular disease, case-fatality rate, communicable diseases, hospitalization rate, multivariate decomposition, non-communicable diseases, prevalence rate

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351 Medicinal Plants: An Antiviral Depository with Complex Mode of Action

Authors: Daniel Todorov, Anton Hinkov, Petya Angelova, Kalina Shishkova, Venelin Tsvetkov, Stoyan Shishkov

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Human herpes viruses (HHV) are ubiquitous pathogens with a pandemic spread across the globe. HHV type 1 is the main causative agent of cold sores and fever blisters around the mouth and on the face, whereas HHV type 2 is generally responsible for genital herpes outbreaks. The treatment of both viruses is more or less successful with antivirals from the nucleoside analogues group. Their wide application increasingly leads to the emergence of resistant mutants In the past, medicinal plants have been used to treat a number of infectious and non-infectious diseases. Their diversity and ability to produce the vast variety of secondary metabolites according to the characteristics of the environment give them the potential to help us in our warfare with viral infections. The variable chemical characteristics and complex composition is an advantage in the treatment of herpes since the emergence of resistant mutants is significantly complicated. The screening process is difficult due to the lack of standardization. That is why it is especially important to follow the mechanism of antiviral action of plants. On the one hand, it may be expected to interact with its compounds, resulting in enhanced antiviral effects, and the most appropriate environmental conditions can be chosen to maximize the amount of active secondary metabolites. During our study, we followed the activity of various plant extracts on the viral replication cycle as well as their effect on the extracellular virion. We obtained our results following the logical sequence of the experimental settings - determining the cytotoxicity of the extracts, evaluating the overall effect on viral replication and extracellular virion.During our research, we have screened a variety of plant extracts for their antiviral activity against both virus replication and the virion itself. We investigated the effect of the extracts on the individual stages of the viral replication cycle - viral adsorption, penetration and the effect on replication depending on the time of addition. If there are positive results in the later experiments, we had studied the activity over viral adsorption, penetration and the effect of replication according to the time of addition. Our results indicate that some of the extracts from the Lamium album have several targets. The first stages of the viral life cycle are most affected. Several of our active antiviral agents have shown an effect on extracellular virion and adsorption and penetration processes. Our research over the last decade has shown several curative antiviral plants - some of which are from the Lamiacea family. The rich set of active ingredients of the plants in this family makes them a good source of antiviral preparation.

Keywords: human herpes virus, antiviral activity, Lamium album, Nepeta nuda

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350 The Association between Prior Antibiotic Use and Subsequent Risk of Infectious Disease: A Systematic Review

Authors: Umer Malik, David Armstrong, Mark Ashworth, Alex Dregan, Veline L'Esperance, Lucy McDonnell, Mariam Molokhia, Patrick White

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Introduction: The microbiota lining epithelial surfaces is thought to play an important role in many human physiological functions including defense against pathogens and modulation of immune response. The microbiota is susceptible to disruption from external influences such as exposure to antibiotic medication. It is thought that antibiotic-induced disruption of the microbiota could predispose to pathogen overgrowth and invasion. We hypothesized that antibiotic use would be associated with increased risk of future infections. We carried out a systematic review of evidence of associations between antibiotic use and subsequent risk of community-acquired infections. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature for observational studies assessing the association between antibiotic use and subsequent community-acquired infection. Eligible studies were published before April 29th, 2016. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science and screened titles and abstracts using a predefined search strategy. Infections caused by Clostridium difficile, drug-resistant organisms and fungal organisms were excluded as their association with prior antibiotic use has been examined in previous systematic reviews. Results: Eighteen out of 21,518 retrieved studies met the inclusion criteria. The association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent increased risk of infection was reported in 16 studies, including one study on Campylobacter jejuni infection (Odds Ratio [OR] 3.3), two on typhoid fever (ORs 5.7 and 12.2), one on Staphylococcus aureus skin infection (OR 2.9), one on invasive pneumococcal disease (OR 1.57), one on recurrent furunculosis (OR 16.6), one on recurrent boils and abscesses (Risk ratio 1.4), one on upper respiratory tract infection (OR 2.3) and urinary tract infection (OR 1.1), one on invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection (OR 1.51), one on infectious mastitis (OR 5.38), one on meningitis (OR 2.04) and five on Salmonella enteric infection (ORs 1.4, 1.59, 1.9, 2.3 and 3.8). The effect size in three studies on Salmonella enteric infection was of marginal statistical significance. A further two studies on Salmonella infection did not demonstrate a statistically significant association between prior antibiotic exposure and subsequent infection. Conclusion: We have found an association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent risk of a diverse range of infections in the community setting. Our findings provide evidence to support the hypothesis that prior antibiotic usage may predispose to future infection risk, possibly through antibiotic-induced alteration of the microbiota. The findings add further weight to calls to minimize inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions.

Keywords: antibiotic, infection, risk factor, side effect

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349 Multilayer System of Thermosetting Polymers and Specific Confining, Application to the Walls of the Hospital Unit

Authors: M. Bouzid, A. Djadi, C. Aribi, A. Irekti, B. Bezzazi, F. Halouene

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The nature of materials structuring our health institutions promote the development of germs. The sustainability of nosocomial infections remains significant (12% and 15%). One of the major factors is the portland cement which is brittle and porous. As part of a national plan to fight nosocomial infections, led by the University Hospital of Blida, we opted for a composite coating, application by multilayer model, composed of epoxy-polyester resin as a binder and calcium carbonate as mineral fillers. The application of composite materials reinforce the wall coating of hospital units and eliminates the hospital infectious areas. The resistance to impact, chemicals, raising temperature and to a biologically active environment gives satisfactory results.

Keywords: nosocomial infection, microbial load, composite materials, portland cement

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348 The Effect of Disseminating Basic Knowledge on Radiation in Emergency Distance Learning of COVID-19

Authors: Satoko Yamasaki, Hiromi Kawasaki, Kotomi Yamashita, Susumu Fukita, Kei Sounai

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People are susceptible to rumors when the cause of their health problems is unknown or invisible. In order for individuals to be unaffected by rumors, they need basic knowledge and correct information. Community health nursing classes use cases where basic knowledge of radiation can be utilized on a regular basis, thereby teaching that basic knowledge is important in preventing anxiety caused by rumors. Nursing students need to learn that preventive activities are essential for public health nursing care. This is the same methodology used to reduce COVID-19 anxiety among individuals. This study verifies the learning effect concerning the basic knowledge of radiation necessary for case consultation by emergency distance learning. Sixty third-year nursing college students agreed to participate in this research. The knowledge tests conducted before and after classes were compared, with the chi-square test used for testing. There were five knowledge questions regarding distance lessons. This was considered to be 5% significant. The students’ reports which describe the results of responding to health consultations, were analyzed qualitatively and descriptively. In this case study, a person living in an area not affected by radiation was anxious about drinking water and, thus, consulted with a student. The contents of the lecture were selected the minimum amount of knowledge used for the answers of the consultant; specifically hot spots, internal exposure risk, food safety, characteristics of cesium-137, and precautions for counselors. Before taking the class, the most correctly answered question by students concerned daily behavior at risk of internal exposure (52.2%). The question with the fewest correct answers was the selection of places that are likely to be hot spots (3.4%). All responses increased significantly after taking the class (p < 0.001). The answers to the counselors, as written by the students, were 'Cesium is strongly bound to the soil, so it is difficult to transfer to water' and 'Water quality test results of tap water are posted on the city's website.' These were concrete answers obtained by using specialized knowledge. Even in emergency distance learning, the students gained basic knowledge regarding radiation and created a document to utilize said knowledge while assuming the situation concretely. It was thought that the flipped classroom method, even if conducted remotely, could maintain students' learning. It was thought that setting specific knowledge and scenes to be used would enhance the learning effect. By changing the case to concern that of the anxiety caused by infectious diseases, students may be able to effectively gain the basic knowledge to decrease the anxiety of residents due to infectious diseases.

Keywords: effect of class, emergency distance learning, nursing student, radiation

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347 Establishing a Cause-Effect Relationship among the Key Success Factors of Healthcare Waste Management in India

Authors: Ankur Chauhan, Amol Singh

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The increasing human resource has led to the rapid increment in the generation of healthcare waste across the world. Since, this waste consists of the infectious and hazardous components emerged from the patient care activities in different healthcare facilities; therefore, its proper management becomes vital for mitigating its negative impact on society and environment. The present research work focuses on the identification of the key success factors for developing a successful healthcare waste management plan. In addition, the key success factors have been studied by developing a causal diagram with the help of a decision making trial and evaluation (DEMATEL) approach. The findings of the study would help in the filtration of dominant key success factors which would further help in making a comparative assessment of the waste management plan of different hospitals.

Keywords: healthcare waste disposal, environment and society, multi-criteria decision making, DEMATEL

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346 Approaching a Tat-Rev Independent HIV-1 Clone towards a Model for Research

Authors: Walter Vera-Ortega, Idoia Busnadiego, Sam J. Wilson

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Introduction: Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is responsible for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), a leading cause of death worldwide infecting millions of people each year. Despite intensive research in vaccine development, therapies against HIV-1 infection are not curative, and the huge genetic variability of HIV-1 challenges to drug development. Current animal models for HIV-1 research present important limitations, impairing the progress of in vivo approaches. Macaques require a CD8+ depletion to progress to AIDS, and the maintenance cost is high. Mice are a cheaper alternative but need to be 'humanized,' and breeding is not possible. The development of an HIV-1 clone able to replicate in mice is a challenging proposal. The lack of human co-factors in mice impedes the function of the HIV-1 accessory proteins, Tat and Rev, hampering HIV-1 replication. However, Tat and Rev function can be replaced by constitutive/chimeric promoters, codon-optimized proteins and the constitutive transport element (CTE), generating a novel HIV-1 clone able to replicate in mice without disrupting the amino acid sequence of the virus. By minimally manipulating the genomic 'identity' of the virus, we propose the generation of an HIV-1 clone able to replicate in mice to assist in antiviral drug development. Methods: i) Plasmid construction: The chimeric promoters and CTE copies were cloned by PCR using lentiviral vectors as templates (pCGSW and pSIV-MPCG). Tat mutants were generated from replication competent HIV-1 plasmids (NHG and NL4-3). ii) Infectivity assays: Retroviral vectors were generated by transfection of human 293T cells and murine NIH 3T3 cells. Virus titre was determined by flow cytometry measuring GFP expression. Human B-cells (AA-2) and Hela cells (TZMbl) were used for infectivity assays. iii) Protein analysis: Tat protein expression was determined by TZMbl assay and HIV-1 capsid by western blot. Results: We have determined that NIH 3T3 cells are able to generate HIV-1 particles. However, they are not infectious, and further analysis needs to be performed. Codon-optimized HIV-1 constructs are efficiently made in 293T cells in a Tat and Rev independent manner and capable of packaging a competent genome in trans. CSGW is capable of generating infectious particles in the absence of Tat and Rev in human cells when 4 copies of the CTE are placed preceding the 3’LTR. HIV-1 Tat mutant clones encoding different promoters are functional during the first cycle of replication when Tat is added in trans. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the development of an HIV-1 Tat-Rev independent clone is challenging but achievable aim. However, further investigations need to be developed prior presenting our HIV-1 clone as a candidate model for research.

Keywords: codon-optimized, constitutive transport element, HIV-1, long terminal repeats, research model

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345 An Optimal Control Model for the Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis

Authors: Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba, Rayan M. Altayeb

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease caused by the protozoa parasite of the genus leishmania. The transmission of the parasite to humans and animals occurs via the bite of adult female sandflies previously infected by biting and sucking blood of an infectious humans or animals. In this paper we use a previously proposed model, and then applied two optimal controls, namely treatment and vaccination to that model to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the spread of the disease using treatment and vaccination as the system control variables. The possible impact of using combinations of the two controls, either one at a time or two at a time on the spread of the disease is also examined. Our results provide a framework for vaccination and treatment strategies to reduce susceptible and infection individuals of VL in five years.

Keywords: visceral leishmaniasis, treatment, vaccination, optimal control, numerical simulation

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344 Social Contact Patterns among School-Age Children in Taiwan

Authors: Dih Ling Luh, Zhi Shih You, Szu Chieh Chen

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Social contact patterns among school-age children play an important role in the epidemiology of infectious disease. Since many of the greatest threats to human health are spread by direct person-to-person contact, understanding the spread of respiratory pathogens and patterns of human interactions are public health priorities. This study used social contact diaries to compare the number of contacts per day per participant across different flu/non-flu seasons and weekend/weekday. We also present contact properties such as sex, age, masking, setting, frequency, duration, and contact types among school-age children (grades 7–8). The sample size with pair-wise comparisons for the seasons (flu/non-flu) and stratification by location were 54 and 83, respectively. There was no difference in the number of contacts during the flu and non-flu seasons, with averages of 16.3 (S.D. = 12.9) and 14.6 (S.D. = 9.5) people, respectively. Weekdays were associated with 23% and 28% more contacts than weekend days during the non-flu and flu seasons, respectively (p < 0.001) (Wilcoxon signed-rank test).

Keywords: contact patterns, behavior, influenza, social mixing

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343 The Effect of Nanocomposite on the Release of Imipenem on Bacteria Causing Infections with Implants

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Pazandeh, Monir Doudi, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

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—Results The prudent administration of antibiotics aims to avoid the side effects and the microbes' resistance to antibiotics. An approach developing methods of local administration of antibiotics is especially required for localized infections caused by bacterial colonization of medical devices or implant materials. Among the wide variety of materials used as drug delivery systems, bioactive glasses (BG) have large utilization in regenerative medicine . firstly, the production of bioactive glass/nickel oxide/tin dioxide nanocomposite using sol-gel method, and then, the controlled release of imipenem from the double metal oxide/bioactive glass nanocomposite, and finally, the investigation of the antibacterial property of the nanocomposite. against a number of implant-related infectious agents. In this study, BG/SnO2 and BG/NiO single systema with different metal oxide present and BG/NiO/SnO2 nanocomposites were synthesized by sol-gel as drug carriers for tetracycline and imepinem. These two antibiotics were widely used for osteomyelitis because of its favorable penetration and bactericidal effect on all the probable osteomyelitis pathogens. The antibacterial activity of synthesized samples were evaluated against Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa as bacteria model using disk diffusion method. The BG modification using metal oxides results to antibacterial property of samples containing metal oxide with highest efficiency for nancomposite. bioactivity of all samples was assessed by determining the surface morphology, structural and composition changes using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), FTIR and X-ray diffraction (XRD) spectroscopy, respectively, after soaking in simulated body fluid (SBF) for 28 days. The hydroxyapatite formation was clearly observed as a bioactivity measurement. Then, BG nanocomposite sample was loaded using two antibiotics, separately and their release profiles were studied. The BG nancomposite sample was shown the slow and continuous drug releasing for a period of 72 hours which is desirable for a drug delivery system. The loaded antibiotic nanocomposite sample retaining antibacterial property and showing inactivation effect against bacteria under test. The modified bioactive glass forming hydroxyapatite with controlled release drug and effective against bacterial infections can be introduced as scaffolds for bone implants after clinical trials for biomedical applications . Considering the formation of biofilm by infectious bacteria after sticking on the surfaces of implants, medical devices, etc. Also, considering the complications of traditional methods, solving the problems caused by the above-mentioned microorganisms in technical and biomedical industries was one of the necessities of this research.

Keywords: antibacterial, bioglass, drug delivery system, sol- gel

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342 Vertebral Artery Dissection Complicating Pregnancy and Puerperium: Case Report and Review of the Literature

Authors: N. Reza Pour, S. Chuah, T. Vo

Abstract:

Background: Vertebral artery dissection (VAD) is a rare complication of pregnancy. It can occur spontaneously or following a traumatic event. The pathogenesis is unclear. Predisposing factors include chronic hypertension, Marfan’s syndrome, fibromuscular dysplasia, vasculitis and cystic medial necrosis. Physiological changes of pregnancy have also been proposed as potential mechanisms of injury to the vessel wall. The clinical presentation varies and it can present as a headache, neck pain, diplopia, transient ischaemic attack, or an ischemic stroke. Isolated cases of VAD in pregnancy and puerperium have been reported in the literature. One case was found to have posterior circulation stroke as a result of bilateral VAD and labour was induced at 37 weeks gestation for preeclampsia. Another patient at 38 weeks with severe neck pain that persisted after induction for elevated blood pressure and arteriography showed right VAD postpartum. A single case of lethal VAD in pregnancy with subsequent massive subarachnoid haemorrhage has been reported which was confirmed by the autopsy. Case Presentation: We report two cases of vertebral artery dissection in pregnancy. The first patient was a 32-year-old primigravida presented at the 38th week of pregnancy with the onset of early labour and blood pressure (BP) of 130/70 on arrival. After 2 hours, the patient developed a severe headache with blurry vision and BP was 238/120. Despite treatment with an intravenous antihypertensive, she had eclamptic fit. Magnesium solfate was started and Emergency Caesarean Section was performed under the general anaesthesia. On the second day after the operation, she developed left-sided neck pain. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) angiography confirmed a short segment left vertebral artery dissection at the level of C3. The patient was treated with aspirin and remained stable without any neurological deficit. The second patient was a 33-year-old primigavida who was admitted to the hospital at 36 weeks gestation with BP of 155/105, constant headache and visual disturbances. She was medicated with an oral antihypertensive agent. On day 4, she complained of right-sided neck pain. MRI angiogram revealed a short segment dissection of the right vertebral artery at the C2-3 level. Pregnancy was terminated on the same day with emergency Caesarean Section and anticoagulation was started subsequently. Post-operative recovery was complicated by rectus sheath haematoma requiring evacuation. She was discharged home on Aspirin without any neurological sequelae. Conclusion: Because of collateral circulation, unilateral vertebral artery dissections may go unrecognized and may be more common than suspected. The outcome for most patients is benign, reflecting the adequacy of the collateral circulation in young patients. Spontaneous VAD is usually treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy for a minimum of 3-6 months to prevent future ischaemic events, allowing the dissection to heal on its own. We had two cases of VAD in the context of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy with an acceptable outcome. A high level of vigilance is required particularly with preeclamptic patients presenting with head/neck pain to allow an early diagnosis. This is as we hypothesize, early and aggressive management of vertebral artery dissection may potentially prevent further complications.

Keywords: eclampsia, preeclampsia, pregnancy, Vertebral Artery Dissection

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341 Ventilator Associated Pneumonia in a Medical Intensive Care Unit, Incidence and Risk Factors: A Case Control Study

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Mahjoub Mohamed, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is currently recognized as one of the most relevant causes of morbidity and mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients worldwide. Identifying modifiable risk factors for VAP could be helpful for future controlled interventional studies aiming at improving prevention of VAP. The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence and risk factors for VAP in in a Tunisian medical ICU. Materials / Methods: A retrospective case-control study design based on the prospective database collected over a 14-month period from September 15th, 2015 through November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU. Patients under ventilation for over 48 h were included. The number of cases was estimated by Epi-info Software with the power of statistical test equal to 90 %. Each case patient was successfully matched to two controls according to the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) before VAP for cases and the total length of MV in controls. VAP in the ICU was defined according to American Thoracic Society; Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines. Early onset or late-onset VAP were defined whether the infectious process occurred within or after 96 h of ICU admission. Patients’ risk factors, causes of admission, comorbidities and respiratory specimens collected were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables associated with VAP with a p-value < 0.05. Results: During the period study, a total of 169 patients under mechanical ventilation were considered, 34 patients (20.11%) developed at least one episode of VAP in the ICU. The incidence rate for VAP was 14.88/1000 ventilation days. Among these cases, 9 (26.5 %) were early-onset VAP and 25 (73.5 %) were late-onset VAP. It was a certain diagnosis in 66.7% of cases. Tracheal aspiration was positive in 80% of cases. Multi-drug resistant Acinerobacter baumanii was the most common species detected in cases; 67.64% (n=23). The rate of mortality out of cases was 88.23% (n= 30). In univariate analysis, the patients with VAP were statistically more likely to suffer from cardiovascular diseases (p=0.035) and prolonged duration of sedation (p=0.009) and tracheostomy (p=0.001), they also had a higher number of re-intubation (p=0.017) and a longer total time of intubation (p=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases (OR= 4.44; 95% IC= [1.3 - 14]; p=0.016), tracheostomy (OR= 4.2; 95% IC= [1.16 -15.12]; p= 0.028) and prolonged duration of sedation (OR=1.21; 95% IC= [1.07, 1.36]; p=0.002) were independent risk factors for the development of VAP. Conclusion: VAP constitutes a therapeutic challenge in an ICU setting, therefore; strategies that effectively prevent VAP are needed. An infection control-training program intended to all professional heath care in this unit insisting on bundles and elaboration of procedures are planned to reduce effectively incidence rate of VAP.

Keywords: case control study, intensive care unit, risk factors, ventilator associated pneumonia

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340 Study of Germs Responsible of Nosocomial Infections in Hospital of Guelma

Authors: Wissem Abdaoui, Ilhem Mokhtari, Adel Gouri, Benouareth Djamel Eddine

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Contracted in a health facility, hospital-acquired infections are a major public health problem in recent years. The increase of nosocomial infections is partly related to diagnostic and therapeutic advances in medicine. The aim of our study was to isolate and diagnose some types of bacteria that are circulating in the hospital by performing different samples at two medical services: Pulmonary and Infectious Diseases. The antibiotic susceptibility tests were performed for bacterial isolates. The results have shown that there is a predominance of enterobacteria followed by the staphylococcus with its two species epidermidis ans saprophyticus. The study of the antibiogramme identified that some of these bacteria have a resistant profile against all the tested antibiotics. The fight against nosocomial infections is difficult because it must act on several factors: quality of care, safety of the hospital environment, hygiene, wearing gloves etc. are all areas that should be of heightened vigilance and preventive measures.

Keywords: nosocomial infection, isolation, identification, sensitivity and resistance to antibiotics

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339 Evaluation Treatment of 130 Feline Infectious Peritonitis (FIP) Cats with GS-441524 in Iran

Authors: Manely Ansary Mood, Farzaneh Aziizi, Mahmoud Akbarian

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This investigation included 130 cats diagnosed with FIP (Feb 2021-March 2022) in Iran, 74 with effusive FIP, and 56 with non-effusive FIP. The patients' initial dosage regime consisted of a subcutaneous injection of GS-441524 was 6-15mg/kg-every 24h (based on the wet or ocular and neurologic signs). The minimum treatment period was twelve weeks, extended in animals that still had abnormal lab values, clinical signs, and sonographic findings. The outcomes of the 130 cats that completed the duration of treatment (14 died, 116 cured) were checked and recorded. Clinical, sonographic, and laboratory responses were checked and compared on days 28, 56, and 83 of treatment. 2 of the 116 cured cats relapsed within observation days. At the time of this publication (May 2022), 114 of the studied patients remained healthy. We could conclude that GS-441524 appears to be an effective option for FIP treatment, and also, to the base of our knowledge, this is the first report for group treatment of infected cats of FIP with GS-441524 in Iran.

Keywords: FIP, cat, GS-441524, treatment

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338 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

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In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: equilibrium points, exposed, global stability, infective immigrants, Lyapunov function, recovered, reproduction number, susceptible

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337 Evaluation of the Sterilization Practice in Liberal Dental Surgeons at Sidi Bel Abbes- Algeria

Authors: A. Chenafa, S. Boulenouar, M. Zitouni, M. Boukouria

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The sterilization of medical devices constitutes for all the medical professions, an inescapable obligation. It has for objective to prevent the infectious risk, both for the patient and for the medical team. The Dental surgeon as every healthcare professional has to master perfectly this subject and to train his staff to the various techniques of sterilization. It is the only way to assure the patients all the security for which they are entitled to wait when they undergo a dental care. It’s for it, that we undertook to lead an investigation aiming at estimating the sterilization practice at the dental surgeon of Sidi bel Abbes. The survey result showed a youth marked with the profession with a majority use of autoclave with cycle B and an almost total absence of the sterilization controls (test of Bowie and Dick). However, the majority of the dentists control and validate their sterilizers. Finally, our survey allowed us to describe some practices which must be improved regarding control, regarding qualification and regarding staff training. And suggestions were made in this sense.

Keywords: dental surgeon, medical devices, sterilization, survey

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336 A Time since of Injection Model for Hepatitis C Amongst People Who Inject Drugs

Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

Abstract:

Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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335 Geographic Differences in Access to HIV Prevention Services and Care among Sexual Minority Men in Puerto Rico

Authors: William Coburn, Dylan Hauchard, Amel Naouali

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Background: The nature of the HIV epidemic in Puerto Rico (PR) is less understood than in the continental U.S. There is evidence to suggest that there are differences in health care access based on geographical location, such that rural areas are less underserved and have less immediate access to HIV prevention resources. Methods: The current study consists of a cross-sectional online survey of self-reporting HIV-negative sexual minority men (SMM) residing in PR. Results: In this sample, there were no differences between urban and rural-based services for SMM. However, more than half of the sample reported that they have never disclosed their gender identity and sexual practices to a physician. Conclusion: HIV is a significant public health concern affecting Latinos/Hispanics in the U.S. Findings in this paper can have implications for HIV prevention services in PR specifically, as few studies have directly focused on the impact of HIV and health care services in PR outside of the continental U.S.

Keywords: HIV, Puerto Rico, infectious diseases , public health

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334 Enzyme Redesign: From Metal-Dependent to Metal-Independent, a Symphony Orchestra without Concertmasters

Authors: Li Na Zhao, Arieh Warshel

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The design of enzymes is an extremely challenging task, and this is also true for metalloenzymes. In the case of naturally evolved enzymes, one may consider the active site residues as the musicians in the enzyme orchestra, while the metal can be considered as their concertmaster. Together they catalyze reactions as if they performed a masterpiece written by nature. The Lactonase can be thought as a member of the amidohydrolase family, with two concertmasters, Fe and Zn, at its active site. It catalyzes the quorum sensing signal- N-acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs or N-AHLs)- by hydrolyzing the lactone ring. This process, known as quorum quenching, provides a strategy in the treatment of infectious diseases without introducing selection pressure. However, the activity of lactonase is metal-dependent, and this dependence hampers the clinic usage. In our study, we use the empirical valence bond (EVB) approach to evaluate the catalytic contributions decomposing them to electrostatic and other components.

Keywords: enzyme redesign, empirical valence bond, lactonase, quorum quenching

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333 Influenza Virus Circulation among the Population of Kazakhstan in 2012-2014

Authors: N. G. Klivleyeva, T. I. Glebova, G. V. Lukmanova, S. B. Bayseit, S. Z. Taubaeva, M. K. Kalkozhaeva

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The role of viral diseases in the general infectious disease incidence increases every year and requires special attention to the problem of interpreting the etiology of infectious agents. Influenza and acute respiratory viral infections are one of the most pressing public health issues. In the period 2012-2014, collection of 419 nasal swabs and 150 blood sera has been carried out in the patient care institutions of the various Kazakhstan regions from patients with symptoms of ARVI and pneumonia. Primary identification of biosamples for the presence of influenza viral antigens in enzyme immunoassay on nitrocellulose membrane gave positive results in 125 swabs (29.8%). Biosample screening in immunofluorescence test revealed the presence of influenza viral antigens against A/H1 in 63 samples (15.0%), A/H3 – in 70 samples (16.7%) and type B – in 9 samples (2.1%). As a result of primary infection, and successive passages in chick embryos and MDCK cell cultures, 38 HAAg were isolated from 419 samples with a clear cytopathic effect and hemagglutination titre in MDCK cell culture within 1:2-1:4, in CE - 1:8-1:256. The infectivity of isolates in chicken embryos were 3.5-6.5 lg EID50/0.2, in MDCK cell culture – 2.5-6.5 lg PFU/ml. Identification of 28 isolates was carried out in inhibition reactions of hemagglutinating activity and neuraminidase activity, showed their belonging to the influenza virus: 26 strains to A/H1N1, one - to A/H3N2, and one - to type B. Serological examination of blood sera for the presence of specific antibodies being an indirect evidence of the performed isolation and contributing to the timely interpretation of the disease etiology in the epidemics takes an important place in the comprehensive study of influenza viruses circulating among people. Serological analyzes were carried out in HAI assay using a kit consisting of 12 reference strains obtained from the WHO centre for reference and research on Influenza (CDC, Atlanta, USA) and three Kazakhstan (A/Almaty/347/09 (H1N1v), A/Almaty/462/11 (H3N2) and B/Almaty/414/10) human influenza viruses that are stored in the laboratory collection. The results of serological analysis of 150 blood sera showed that antihaemagglutinins against the A/H3N2 virus serosubtype were found in 46 samples (49.4%) out of 93 sera collected in 2012-2013. The antibody titres were within 1:160-1:320. 19 sera (20.4%) were seropositive against influenza A/H1N1 virus, the antibodies were observed in titres of 1:20-1:40. Six sera (6.4%) were positive against the influenza A/H1N1+A/H3N2 virus (mixed infection); the antibodies were recorded in titres of 1:20-1:40. Antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were detected only in five sera (5.4%). The results of analysis of 57 sera collected in 2014 showed that antihaemagglutinins against A/H3N2 virus subtype were detected in 32 blood sera (56.1%) in titres of 1:160-1:640. Ten sera (17.5%) were seropositive against A/H1N1 virus; antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were not detected. Therefore, virological and serological studies have shown that in Kazakhstan, as well as in the world, the influenza viruses A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and influenza B viruses were actively circulating during the epidemic seasons in 2012-2014.

Keywords: influenza, MDCK cell, serological analysis, virus

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332 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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