Search results for: forecast

Authors: Emil Iskandarov, Nazrin Agayeva

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Background: The effectiveness of hormone suppressive therapy (HST) in patients with nodular goiter (NG) is controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the impact of long-time HST on the Quality of Life (QoL) of patients with NG. Material and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 146 patients with NG showed treated with HST showed that in 38,4% of cases, HST was not effective. Nodules were increased in size and moreover, and new nodules were developed. Statistical procedure identified the predictors of resistant nodules: only one nodule in the left lobe; nodule size >17mm; calcinate within the nodule. 174 patients with NG, by whom predictors of resistant nodules were established, were informed about the results of previous research and surgery was suggested. Eighty-eight patients (the basic group) agreed with surgery and thyroidectomy was led. 86 patients (control group) ignored the suggestion and wished to receive HST. 3, 6 and 12 months after starting HST; control group patients were examined. HST was non-effective and patients, due to developing symptoms, were operated on. Patients in both groups were followed up 3, 6 and 12 months after thyroidectomy. Quality of Life was checked with the SF-36 survey form and compared between groups. The statistical analysis was performed with the non-parametric Mann–Whitney U test and with the Student t-test. P values ＜0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results and Discussions: QoL of patients in the basic and control groups 3 months after surgery was almost the same. However, Emotional problems severely interfered with patients in a control group with normal social activities with family, friends, and neighbors. The causes were related to the non-effective HST treatment before surgery: stress for forgetting to take drugs timely every day for a long time; blood tests for thyroid hormone level; needle biopsies of nodules for cancer screening and regular ultrasound investigations, which showed that nodules not diminished in size. Changing the treatment method after 1-year non-effective HST and delayed surgery negatively impacted patient's QoL. Social role functioning and mental health in the control group were also impaired and the difference between the results in the basic group was statistically significant (p <0.05). Conclusion: Predictors, such as only one nodule, the width of nodules more than 17mm, and the existence of calcinate within the nodule, are able to forecast the resistant nodules. HST in patients with resistant nodules is non-effective and surgery is suggested in patients with resistant nodules in the thyroid gland. Long time HST has a negative impact on the QoL patient after surgery.

Keywords: thyroid gland, nodule, hormone suppressive therapy, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Gulden Aykinbaeva, Assem Umirzakova, Assel Makhadiyeva

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The problem of studying of young married couples in connection with a change of social institute of a family and marriage is represented very actual for family consultation, considering a family role in the development of modern society. Results of numerous researchs say that one of difficult in formation and stabilization of a matrimony is the period of a young family. This period is characterized by various processes of integration, adaptation and emotional compatibility of spouses. The young family in it the period endures the first standard crisis which postpones a print for the further development of the family scenario. Emergence new, earlier not existing, systems of values render a huge value on the process of formation of a young family and each of spouses separately. Possibly to solve the set family tasks at the development of the uniform system of the family relations in which socially mature persons capable to consider a family as the creativity of each other act as subjects. Due to the research objective in work the following techniques were used: a questionnaire of satisfaction with V. V. Stolin's marriage and A. N. Volkova's technique directed on detection of coherence of family values and role installations in a married couple, and also content – the analysis. Development of an internal basis of a family on mutual clearing of values is important during the work with married couples. 'The mature view' of the partner in the marriage union provides coherence between the expected and real behavior of the partner that is important for the realization of the purposes of adaptation in a family. For research of communication of the data obtained by means of A. N. Volkova's techniques, V. V. Stolina and content – the analysis, the correlation analysis, with the application of the criterion of Spirmen was used. The analysis of results of the conducted research allowed us to determine the number of consistent patterns: 1. Nature of change of satisfaction with marriage at spouses testifies that the matrimonial relations undergo high-quality changes at different stages of formation of a young family. 2. The matrimonial relations in the course of their development, formation and functioning in young marriage undergo considerable changes on psychological, social and psychological and insignificant — at the psychophysiological and sociocultural levels. The material received by us allows to plan ways of further detailed researches of the development of the matrimonial relations not only in the young marriage but also at further stages of development of a matrimony. We believe that the results received in this research can be almost applied at creation of algorithms of selection of marriage partners, at diagnostics of character and the maintenance of matrimonial disharmonies, at the forecast of stability of marriage and a family.

Keywords: married couples, formation of the young family, psychological consultation, matrimony

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: adsorption, diffusion, non-linear flow, shale gas production

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Ruzanna Muradyan

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Medical data mining is a crucial field in contemporary healthcare that offers cutting-edge tactics with enormous potential to transform patient care. This abstract examines how sophisticated data mining techniques could transform the healthcare industry, with a special focus on how they might improve patient outcomes. Healthcare data repositories have dynamically evolved, producing a rich tapestry of different, multi-dimensional information that includes genetic profiles, lifestyle markers, electronic health records, and more. By utilizing data mining techniques inside this vast library, a variety of prospects for precision medicine, predictive analytics, and insight production become visible. Predictive modeling for illness prediction, risk stratification, and therapy efficacy evaluations are important points of focus. Healthcare providers may use this abundance of data to tailor treatment plans, identify high-risk patient populations, and forecast disease trajectories by applying machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics. Better patient outcomes, more efficient use of resources, and early treatments are made possible by this proactive strategy. Furthermore, data mining techniques act as catalysts to reveal complex relationships between apparently unrelated data pieces, providing enhanced insights into the cause of disease, genetic susceptibilities, and environmental factors. Healthcare practitioners can get practical insights that guide disease prevention, customized patient counseling, and focused therapies by analyzing these associations. The abstract explores the problems and ethical issues that come with using data mining techniques in the healthcare industry. In order to properly use these approaches, it is essential to find a balance between data privacy, security issues, and the interpretability of complex models. Finally, this abstract demonstrates the revolutionary power of modern data mining methodologies in transforming the healthcare sector. Healthcare practitioners and researchers can uncover unique insights, enhance clinical decision-making, and ultimately elevate patient care to unprecedented levels of precision and efficacy by employing cutting-edge methodologies.

Keywords: data mining, healthcare, patient care, predictive analytics, precision medicine, electronic health records, machine learning, predictive modeling, disease prognosis, risk stratification, treatment efficacy, genetic profiles, precision health

Procedia PDF Downloads 31

Authors: Christian Ihwiwhu, Nnamdi Obioha, Udeme John, Edward Bobade, Oghenerunor Bekibele, Adedeji Awujoola, Ibi-Ada Itotoi

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Understanding the complexity in the distribution of hydrocarbon in a simple structure with flow baffles and connectivity issues is critical in targeting and developing the remaining pay in a mature asset. Subtle facies changes (heterogeneity) can have a drastic impact on reservoir fluids movement, and this can be crucial to identifying sweet spots in mature fields. This study aims to evaluate selected reservoirs in Ovhor Field, Niger Delta, Nigeria, with the objective of optimising production from the field by targeting undeveloped oil reserves, bypassed pay, and gaining an improved understanding of the selected reservoirs to increase the company’s reservoir limits. The task at the Ovhor field is complicated by poor stratigraphic seismic resolution over the field. 3-D geological (sedimentology and stratigraphy) interpretation, use of results from quantitative interpretation, and proper understanding of production data have been used in recognizing flow baffles and undeveloped compartments in the field. The full field 3-D model has been constructed in such a way as to capture heterogeneities and the various compartments in the field to aid the proper simulation of fluid flow in the field for future production prediction, proper history matching and design of good trajectories to adequately target undeveloped oil in the field. Reservoir property models (porosity, permeability, and net-to-gross) have been constructed by biasing log interpreted properties to a defined environment of deposition model whose interpretation captures the heterogeneities expected in the studied reservoirs. At least, two scenarios have been modelled for most of the studied reservoirs to capture the range of uncertainties we are dealing with. The total original oil in-place volume for the four reservoirs studied is 157 MMstb. The cumulative oil and gas production from the selected reservoirs are 67.64 MMstb and 9.76 Bscf respectively, with current production rate of about 7035 bopd and 4.38 MMscf/d (as at 31/08/2019). Dynamic simulation and production forecast on the 4 reservoirs gave an undeveloped reserve of about 3.82 MMstb from two (2) identified oil restoration activities. These activities include side-tracking and re-perforation of existing wells. This integrated approach led to the identification of bypassed oil in some areas of the selected reservoirs and an improved understanding of the studied reservoirs. New wells have/are being drilled now to test the results of our studies, and the results are very confirmatory and satisfying.

Keywords: facies, flow baffle, bypassed pay, heterogeneities, history matching, reservoir limit

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Authors: Anjali Uday, Yuting Wang, Andres Alfonso Pena Olare

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The Discrete Element Method is a promising approach to modeling microscopic behaviors of granular materials. The quality of the simulations however depends on the model parameters utilized. The present study focuses on calibration and validation of the discrete element parameters for Cuxhaven sand based on the experimental data from triaxial and oedometer tests. A sensitivity analysis was conducted during the sample preparation stage and the shear stage of the triaxial tests. The influence of parameters like rolling resistance, inter-particle friction coefficient, confining pressure and effective modulus were investigated on the void ratio of the sample generated. During the shear stage, the effect of parameters like inter-particle friction coefficient, effective modulus, rolling resistance friction coefficient and normal-to-shear stiffness ratio are examined. The calibration of the parameters is carried out such that the simulations reproduce the macro mechanical characteristics like dilation angle, peak stress, and stiffness. The above-mentioned calibrated parameters are then validated by simulating an oedometer test on the sand. The oedometer test results are in good agreement with experiments, which proves the suitability of the calibrated parameters. In the next step, the calibrated and validated model parameters are applied to forecast the micromechanical behavior including the evolution of contact force chains, buckling of columns of particles, observation of non-coaxiality, and sample inhomogeneity during a simple shear test. The evolution of contact force chains vividly shows the distribution, and alignment of strong contact forces. The changes in coordination number are in good agreement with the volumetric strain exhibited during the simple shear test. The vertical inhomogeneity of void ratios is documented throughout the shearing phase, which shows looser structures in the top and bottom layers. Buckling of columns is not observed due to the small rolling resistance coefficient adopted for simulations. The non-coaxiality of principal stress and strain rate is also well captured. Thus the micromechanical behaviors are well described using the calibrated and validated material parameters.

Keywords: discrete element model, parameter calibration, triaxial test, oedometer test, simple shear test

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Authors: Riofrio Jonathan, Fernandez Guillermo

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Renewable energy represented around 80% of the energy matrix for power generation in Ecuador during 2020, so the deployment of current public policies is focused on taking advantage of the high presence of renewable sources to carry out several electrification projects. These projects are part of the portfolio sent to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the established national determined contribution (NDC). In this sense, the Ecuadorian Organic Energy Efficiency Law (LOEE) published in 2019 promotes E-mobility as one of the main milestones. In fact, it states that the new vehicles for urban and interurban usage must be E-buses since 2025. As a result, and for a successful implementation of this technological change in a national context, it is important to deploy land surveys focused on technical and geographical areas to keep the quality of services in both the electricity and transport sectors. Therefore, this research presents a technological and energy comparison between a conventional diesel bus and its equivalent E-bus. Both vehicles fulfill all the technical requirements to ride in the study-case city, which is Ambato in the province of Tungurahua-Ecuador. In addition, the analysis includes the development of a model for the energy estimation of both technologies that are especially applied in a highland city such as Ambato. The altimetry of the most important bus routes in the city varies from 2557 to 3200 m.a.s.l., respectively, for the lowest and highest points. These operation conditions provide a grade of novelty to this paper. Complementary, the technical specifications of diesel buses are defined following the common features of buses registered in Ambato. On the other hand, the specifications for E-buses come from the most common units introduced in Latin America because there is not enough evidence in similar cities at the moment. The achieved results will be good input data for decision-makers since electric demand forecast, energy savings, costs, and greenhouse gases emissions are computed. Indeed, GHG is important because it allows reporting the transparency framework that it is part of the Paris Agreement. Finally, the presented results correspond to stage I of the called project “Analysis and Prospective of Electromobility in Ecuador and Energy Mix towards 2030” supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).

Keywords: high altitude cities, energy planning, NDC, e-buses, e-mobility

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Ariadna Gassiot, Raquel Camprubi, Lluis Coromina

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Creative tourism involves the participation of tourists in the co-creation of their own experiences in a tourism destination. Consequently, creative tourists move from a passive behavior to an active behavior, and tourism destinations address this type of tourism by changing the scenario and making tourists learn and participate while they travel instead of merely offering tourism products and services to them. In creative tourism experiences, tourists are in close contact with locals and their culture. In destinations where culture (i.e. food, heritage, etc.) is the basis of their offer, such as Girona, Spain, tourism stakeholders must especially consider, analyze, and further foster the co-creation of authentic tourism experiences. They should focus on discovering more about these experiences, their main attributes, visitors’ opinions, etc. Creative tourists do not only participate while they travel around the world, but they also have and active post-travel behavior. They feel free to write about tourism experiences in different channels. User-generated content becomes crucial for any tourism destination when analyzing the market, making decisions, planning strategies, and when addressing issues, such as their reputation and performance. Sentiment analysis is a methodology used to automatically analyze semantic relationships and meanings in texts, so it is a way to extract tourists’ emotions and feelings. Tourists normally express their views and opinions regarding tourism products and services. They may express positive, neutral or negative feelings towards these products or services. For example, they may express anger, love, hate, sadness or joy towards tourism services and products. They may also express feelings through verbs, nouns, adverbs, adjectives, among others. Sentiment analysis may help tourism professionals in a range of areas, from marketing to customer service. For example, sentiment analysis allows tourism stakeholders to forecast tourism expenditure and tourist arrivals, or to analyze tourists’ profile. While there is an increasing presence of creativity in tourists’ experiences, there is also an increasing need to explore tourists’ expressions about these experiences. There is a need to know how they feel about participating in specific tourism activities. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the meanings, emotions and feelings that tourists express about their creative experiences in Girona, Spain. To do so, sentiment analysis methodology is used. Results show the diversity of tourists who actively participate in tourism in Girona. Their opinions refer both to tangible aspects (e.g. food, museums, etc.) and to intangible aspects (e.g. friendliness, nightlife, etc.) of tourism experiences. Tourists express love, likeliness and other sentiments towards tourism products and services in Girona. This study can help tourism stakeholders in understanding tourists’ experiences and feelings. Consequently, they can offer more customized products and services and they can efficiently make them participate in the co-creation of their own tourism experiences.

Keywords: creative tourism, sentiment analysis, text mining, user-generated content

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Amir Gharavi, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah

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The main characteristics of unconventional reservoirs include low-to ultra low permeability and low-to-moderate porosity. As a result, hydrocarbon production from these reservoirs requires different extraction technologies than from conventional resources. An unconventional reservoir must be stimulated to produce hydrocarbons at an acceptable flow rate to recover commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. Permeability for unconventional reservoirs is mostly below 0.1 mD, and reservoirs with permeability above 0.1 mD are generally considered to be conventional. The hydrocarbon held in these formations naturally will not move towards producing wells at economic rates without aid from hydraulic fracturing which is the only technique to assess these tight reservoir productions. Horizontal well with multi-stage fracking is the key technique to maximize stimulated reservoir volume and achieve commercial production. The main objective of this research paper is to investigate development options for a tight mature oilfield. This includes multistage hydraulic fracturing and spacing by building of reservoir models in the Reveal simulator to model potential development options based on sidetracking the existing vertical well. To simulate potential options, reservoir models have been built in the Reveal. An existing Petrel geological model was used to build the static parts of these models. A FBHP limit of 40bars was assumed to take into account pump operating limits and to maintain the reservoir pressure above the bubble point. 300m, 600m and 900m lateral length wells were modelled, in conjunction with 4, 6 and 8 stages of fracs. Simulation results indicate that higher initial recoveries and peak oil rates are obtained with longer well lengths and also with more fracs and spacing. For a 25year forecast, the ultimate recovery ranging from 0.4% to 2.56% for 300m and 1000m laterals respectively. The 900m lateral with 8 fracs 100m spacing gave the highest peak rate of 120m3/day, with the 600m and 300m cases giving initial peak rates of 110m3/day. Similarly, recovery factor for the 900m lateral with 8 fracs and 100m spacing was the highest at 2.65% after 25 years. The corresponding values for the 300m and 600m laterals were 2.37% and 2.42%. Therefore, the study suggests that longer laterals with 8 fracs and 100m spacing provided the optimal recovery, and this design is recommended as the basis for further study.

Keywords: unconventional, resource, hydraulic, fracturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Ana Campina, José Caramelo Gomes, Maria Emília Teixeira, Cristina Costa-Lobo

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In the pursuit of educational equity within Human Rights and European Fundamental Laws, the reality presents serious problems based on the psychologic, social understanding. Take into account the miscellaneous cultures in the global context and the nowadays numbers of Human mobilities, there are serious problems affecting the societies. This justifies the diagnosed need of a renew pedagogical and social education strategy to achieve the integration positive context preventing violence and discrimination, especially in Education systems. Consequently, it is important to have in mind the respect, acceptance, and integration of special needs students in all study degrees, as it is law but a complex reality. Despite the UN and International Human Rights, European Fundamental Chart, and all EU Treats, as the 28th EU State Member’s fundamental laws forecast the right of Education, the respect, the action and promotion of different cultures and the Education for ‘Difference’ integration – cultures; ideologies, Special Needs Students/Citizens – there are different and severe problems. Firstly, there are questions/contexts/problems not denounced by the lack of investments, political, social or ‘powers’ pressures, so, consequently, the authorities don’t have the action as laws demand and the transgressors haven´t any juridical or judicial punishment. Secondly, and our most important point: Governments, authorities and even victims hide these violations/violence/problems what disable the effective protection and law enforcement. Finally, the official and non-official strategies to get around the duties, break away the laws, failing the victims protection and consequently enable the problems increase dramatically. With this research, we observed that there are international Organizations/regions and States acting without respect to the Education right despite their democratic ideology and the generated external ‘image’ of law-abiding and Human Rights defenders. Nevertheless, it is urgent to develop a consistent Human Rights Education program aiming to protect, promote and implement the Right to be different and be respected by the law, the governments, institutions official and non-official, adapted to the needs in each society. The background of this research is the International and European laws, in accordance with the state’s legal systems. The approaches and the differences of the Education for Human and Fundamental Rights execution in the different EU countries, studying the pedagogy and social inclusion programs/strategies, with particular analysis of the Special Needs students. The results aim to construct a European Education profiling, with the governments and EU interventions need, as well as the panorama of the Special Needs Students effective integration achieving a renewed strategy to promote the respect of the Differences and an Inclusive School life.

Keywords: international human rights, culture, differences, European education profiling

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Nana Bolashvili, Vakhtang Geladze, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Machavariani, George Geladze, Davit Kartvelishvili, Ana Karalashvili

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Fresh water is the major natural resource of Georgia. The average perennial sum of the rivers' runoff in Georgia is 52,77 km³, out of which 9,30 km³ inflows from abroad. The major volume of transit river runoff is ascribed to the Chorokhi river. Average perennial runoff in Western Georgia is 41,52 km³, in Eastern Georgia 11,25 km³. The indices of Eastern and Western Georgia were calculated with 50% and 90% river runoff respectively, while the same index calculation for other countries is based on a 50% river runoff. Out of total volume of resources, 133,2 m³/sec (4,21 km³) has been geologically prospected by the State Commission on Reserves and Acknowledged as reserves available for exploitation, 48% (2,02 km³) of which is in Western Georgia and 2,19 km³ in Eastern Georgia. Considering acknowledged water reserves of all categories per capita water resources accounts to 2,2 m³/day, whereas high industrial category -0. 88 m³ /day fresh drinking water. According to accepted norms, the possibility of using underground water reserves is 2,5 times higher than the long-term requirements of the country. The volume of abundant fresh-water reserves in Georgia is about 150 m³/sec (4,74 km³). Water in Georgia is consumed mostly in agriculture for irrigation purposes. It makes 66,4% around Georgia, in Eastern Georgia 72,4% and 38% in Western Georgia. According to the long-term forecast provision of population and the territory with water resources in Eastern Georgia will be quite normal. A bit different is the situation in the lower reaches of the Khrami and Iori rivers which could be easily overcome by corresponding financing. The present day irrigation system in Georgia does not meet the modern technical requirements. The overall efficiency of their majority varies between 0,4-0,6. Similar is the situation in the fresh water and public service water consumption. Organization of the mentioned systems, installation of water meters, introduction of new methods of irrigation without water loss will substantially increase efficiency of water use. Besides new irrigation norms developed from agro-climatic, geographical and hydrological angle will significantly reduce water waste. Taking all this into account we assume that for irrigation agricultural lands in Georgia is necessary 6,0 km³ water, 5,5 km³ of which goes to Eastern Georgia on irrigation arable areas. To increase water supply in Eastern Georgian territory and its population is possible by means of new water reservoirs as the runoff of every river considerably exceeds the consumption volume. In conclusion, we should say that fresh water resources by which Georgia is that rich could be significant source for barter exchange and investment attraction. Certain volume of fresh water can be exported from Western Georgia quite trouble free, without bringing any damage to population and hydroecosystems. The precise volume of exported water per region/time and method/place of water consumption should be defined after the estimation of different hydroecosystems and detailed analyses of water balance of the corresponding territories.

Keywords: GIS, management, rivers, water resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Abdul Haq

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The goal of this research is to better understand how wind loads affect bridges and develop strategies for designing bridges that are more stable and resistant to wind. The effect of wind on bridges is essential to their safety and functionality, especially in areas that are prone to high wind speeds or violent wind conditions. The study looks at the aerodynamic forces and vibrations caused by wind and how they affect bridge construction. Part of the research method involves first understanding the underlying ideas influencing wind flow near bridges. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are used to model and forecast the aerodynamic behaviour of bridges under different wind conditions. These models incorporate several factors, such as wind directionality, wind speed, turbulence intensity, and the influence of nearby structures or topography. The results provide significant new insights into the loads and pressures that wind places on different bridge elements, such as decks, pylons, and connections. Following the determination of the wind loads, the structural response of bridges is assessed. By simulating their dynamic behavior under wind-induced forces, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to model the bridge's component parts. This work contributes to the understanding of which areas are at risk of experiencing excessive stresses, vibrations, or oscillations due to wind excitations. Because the bridge has inherent modes and frequencies, the study considers both static and dynamic responses. Various strategies are examined to maximize the design of bridges to withstand wind. It is possible to alter the bridge's geometry, add aerodynamic components, add dampers or tuned mass dampers to lessen vibrations, and boost structural rigidity. Through an analysis of several design modifications and their effectiveness, the study aims to offer guidelines and recommendations for wind-resistant bridge design. In addition to the numerical simulations and analyses, there are experimental studies. In order to assess the computational models and validate the practicality of proposed design strategies, scaled bridge models are tested in a wind tunnel. These investigations help to improve numerical models and prediction precision by providing valuable information on wind-induced forces, pressures, and flow patterns. Using a combination of numerical models, actual testing, and long-term performance evaluation, the project aims to offer practical insights and recommendations for building wind-resistant bridges that are secure, long-lasting, and comfortable for users.

Keywords: wind effects, aerodynamic forces, computational fluid dynamics, finite element analysis

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Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Kunihisa Kakumoto

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Purpose: The global environmental problem is now raised in the global dimension. The sprawl phenomenon over the natural limitation is to be made a forecast beforehand in an algorithmic way so that the condition of our social life can hopefully be protected under the natural limitation. The sustainable condition in the globe is now to be found to keep the balance between the capacity of nature and the possibility of our social lives. The amount of water on the earth is limited. Therefore, on the reason, sustainable conditions are strongly dependent on the capacity of water. The amount of water can be considered in relation to the area of the green planting because a certain volume of the water can be obtained in the forest, where the green planting can be preserved. We can find the sustainable conditions of the water in relation to the green planting area. The reduction of CO₂ by green planting is also possible. Possible Measure and the Methods: Until now, by the opportunity of many international conferences, the concept of the solar community as one prototype has been introduced by technical papers. The algorithmic trial calculation on the basic concept of the solar community can be taken into consideration. The concept of the solar community is based on the collected data of the solar model house. According to the algorithmic results of the prototype, the simulation work in the globe can be performed as the algorithmic conversion results. This algorithmic study can be simulated by the amount of water, also in relation to the green planting area. Additionally, the submission of CO₂ in the solar community and the reduction of CO₂ by green planting can be calculated. On the base of these calculations in the solar community, the sustainable conditions on the globe can be simulated as the conversion results in an algorithmic way. The digital formation in the solar community can also be taken into consideration by this opportunity. Conclusion: For the finding of sustainable conditions around the globe, the solar community as one prototype has been taken into consideration. The role of the water is very important because the capacity of the water supply is very limited. But, at present, the cycle of the social community is not composed by the point of the natural mechanism. The simulative calculation of this study can be shown by the limitation of the total water supply. According to this process, the total capacity of the water supply and the capable residential number of the population and the areas can be taken into consideration by the algorithmic calculation. For keeping enough water, the green planting areas are very important. The planting area is also very important to keep the balance of CO₂. The simulative calculation can be performed by the relation between the submission and the reduction of CO₂ in the solar community. For the finding of this total balance and the sustainable conditions, the green planting area and the total amount of water can be recognized by the algorithmic simulative calculation. The study for the finding of sustainable conditions can be performed by the simulative calculations on the algorithmic model in the solar community as one prototype. The example of one prototype can be in balance. The activity of the social life must be in the capacity of the natural mechanism. The capable capacity of the natural environment in our world is very limited.

Keywords: the solar community, the sustainable condition, the natural limitation, the algorithmic calculation

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the operational decision of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS) regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). In the literature, this problem is also known as “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of the first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies are mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a request. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the transport time and release the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs, considering information relating to the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case-mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to evaluate different hospital selection policies. Therefore, the next steps of the research consisted of the development of a general simulation architecture, its implementation in the AnyLogic software and its validation on a realistic dataset. The hospital selection policy that produced the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, which is based on a retrospective estimate of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, which is based on a predictive estimate of the TTP determined with a constantly updated Winters model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP as a hospital selection policy raises several benefits. It allows to significantly reduce service throughput times in the ED with a minimum increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case-mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms of TTP estimation than a retrospective approach but entails a more difficult application. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, emergency medical services, forecast model, hospital selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Olena Kavats, Dmitry Khramov, Kateryna Sergieieva, Vladimir Vasyliev, Iurii Kavats

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Geoinformation technologies of space agromonitoring are a means of operative decision making support in the tasks of managing the agricultural sector of the economy. Existing technologies use satellite images in the optical range of electromagnetic spectrum. Time series of optical images often contain gaps due to the presence of clouds and haze. A geoinformation technology is created. It allows to fill gaps in time series of optical images (Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, PROBA-V, MODIS) with radar survey data (Sentinel-1) and use information about agrometeorological conditions of the growing season for individual monitoring years. The technology allows to perform crop classification and mapping for spring-summer (winter and spring crops) and autumn-winter (winter crops) periods of vegetation, monitoring the dynamics of crop state seasonal changes, crop yield forecasting. Crop classification is based on supervised classification algorithms, takes into account the peculiarities of crop growth at different vegetation stages (dates of sowing, emergence, active vegetation, and harvesting) and agriculture land state characteristics (row spacing, seedling density, etc.). A catalog of samples of the main agricultural crops (Ukraine) is created and crop spectral signatures are calculated with the preliminary removal of row spacing, cloud cover, and cloud shadows in order to construct time series of crop growth characteristics. The obtained data is used in grain crop growth tracking and in timely detection of growth trends deviations from reference samples of a given crop for a selected date. Statistical models of crop yield forecast are created in the forms of linear and nonlinear interconnections between crop yield indicators and crop state characteristics (temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, etc.). Predicted values of grain crop yield are evaluated with an accuracy up to 95%. The developed technology was used for agricultural areas monitoring in a number of Great Britain and Ukraine regions using EOS Crop Monitoring Platform (https://crop-monitoring.eos.com). The obtained results allow to conclude that joint use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images improve separation of winter crops (rapeseed, wheat, barley) in the early stages of vegetation (October-December). It allows to separate successfully the soybean, corn, and sunflower sowing areas that are quite similar in their spectral characteristics.

Keywords: geoinformation technology, crop classification, crop yield prediction, agricultural monitoring, EOS Crop Monitoring Platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: A. G. Akhundov

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Issues of obtaining unbiased data on the status of pipeline systems of oil- and oil product transportation become especially important when laying and operating pipelines under severe nature and climatic conditions. The essential attention is paid here to researching exogenous processes and their impact on linear facilities of the pipeline system. Reliable operation of pipelines under severe nature and climatic conditions, timely planning and implementation of compensating measures are only possible if operation conditions of pipeline systems are regularly monitored, and changes of permafrost soil and hydrological operation conditions are accounted for. One of the main reasons for emergency situations to appear is the geodynamic factor. Emergency situations are proved by the experience to occur within areas characterized by certain conditions of the environment and to develop according to similar scenarios depending on active processes. The analysis of natural and technical systems of main pipelines at different stages of monitoring gives a possibility of making a forecast of the change dynamics. The integration of GIS technologies, traditional means of geotechnical monitoring (in-line inspection, geodetic methods, field observations), and remote methods (aero-visual inspection, aero photo shooting, air and ground laser scanning) provides the most efficient solution of the problem. The united environment of geo information system (GIS) is a comfortable way to implement the monitoring system on the main pipelines since it provides means to describe a complex natural and technical system and every element thereof with any set of parameters. Such GIS enables a comfortable simulation of main pipelines (both in 2D and 3D), the analysis of situations and selection of recommendations to prevent negative natural or man-made processes and to mitigate their consequences. The specifics of such systems include: a multi-dimensions simulation of facilities in the pipeline system, math modelling of the processes to be observed, and the use of efficient numeric algorithms and software packets for forecasting and analyzing. We see one of the most interesting possibilities of using the monitoring results as generating of up-to-date 3D models of a facility and the surrounding area on the basis of aero laser scanning, data of aerophotoshooting, and data of in-line inspection and instrument measurements. The resulting 3D model shall be the basis of the information system providing means to store and process data of geotechnical observations with references to the facilities of the main pipeline; to plan compensating measures, and to control their implementation. The use of GISs for geotechnical monitoring of pipeline systems is aimed at improving the reliability of their operation, reducing the probability of negative events (accidents and disasters), and at mitigation of consequences thereof if they still are to occur.

Keywords: databases, 3D GIS, geotechnical monitoring, pipelines, laser scaning

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Fatemeh Faramarzi, Hosein Mahjoob

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Building dams on rivers for utilization of water resources causes problems in hydrodynamic equilibrium and results in leaving all or part of the sediments carried by water in dam reservoir. This phenomenon has also significant impacts on water and sediment flow regime and in the long term can cause morphological changes in the environment surrounding the river, reducing the useful life of the reservoir which threatens sustainable development through inefficient management of water resources. In the past, empirical methods were used to predict the sedimentation amount in dam reservoirs and to estimate its efficient lifetime. But recently the mathematical and computational models are widely used in sedimentation studies in dam reservoirs as a suitable tool. These models usually solve the equations using finite element method. This study compares the results from tow software packages, GSTARS4 & HEC-6, in the prediction of the sedimentation amount in Dez dam, southern Iran. The model provides a one-dimensional, steady-state simulation of sediment deposition and erosion by solving the equations of momentum, flow and sediment continuity and sediment transport. GSTARS4 (Generalized Sediment Transport Model for Alluvial River Simulation) which is based on a one-dimensional mathematical model that simulates bed changes in both longitudinal and transverse directions by using flow tubes in a quasi-two-dimensional scheme to calibrate a period of 47 years and forecast the next 47 years of sedimentation in Dez Dam, Southern Iran. This dam is among the highest dams all over the world (with its 203 m height), and irrigates more than 125000 square hectares of downstream lands and plays a major role in flood control in the region. The input data including geometry, hydraulic and sedimentary data, starts from 1955 to 2003 on a daily basis. To predict future river discharge, in this research, the time series data were assumed to be repeated after 47 years. Finally, the obtained result was very satisfactory in the delta region so that the output from GSTARS4 was almost identical to the hydrographic profile in 2003. In the Dez dam due to the long (65 km) and a large tank, the vertical currents are dominant causing the calculations by the above-mentioned method to be inaccurate. To solve this problem, we used the empirical reduction method to calculate the sedimentation in the downstream area which led to very good answers. Thus, we demonstrated that by combining these two methods a very suitable model for sedimentation in Dez dam for the study period can be obtained. The present study demonstrated successfully that the outputs of both methods are the same.

Keywords: Dez Dam, prediction, sedimentation, water resources, computational models, finite element method, GSTARS4, HEC-6

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Vadim Allheily, Rudiger Schmitt, Lionel Merlat, Gildas L'Hostis

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Inflight devices are nowadays major actors in both military and civilian landscapes. Among others, missiles, mortars, rockets or even drones this last decade are increasingly sophisticated, and it is today of prior manner to develop always more efficient defensive systems from all these potential threats. In this frame, recent High Energy Laser weapon prototypes (HEL) have demonstrated some extremely good operational abilities to shot down within seconds flying targets several kilometers off. Whereas test outcomes are promising from both experimental and cost-related perspectives, the deterioration process still needs to be explored to be able to closely predict the effects of a high-energy laser irradiation on typical structures, heading finally to an effective design of laser sources and protective countermeasures. Laser matter interaction researches have a long history of more than 40 years at the French-German Research Institute (ISL). Those studies were tied with laser sources development in the mid-60s, mainly for specific metrology of fast phenomena. Nowadays, laser matter interaction can be viewed as the terminal ballistics of conventional weapons, with the unique capability of laser beams to carry energy at light velocity over large ranges. In the last years, a strong focus was made at ISL on the interaction process of laser radiation with metal targets such as artillery shells. Due to the absorbed laser radiation and the resulting heating process, an encased explosive charge can be initiated resulting in deflagration or even detonation of the projectile in flight. Drones and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) are of outmost interests in modern warfare. Those aerial systems are usually made up of polymer-based composite materials, whose complexity involves new scientific challenges. Aside this main laser-matter interaction activity, a lot of experimental and numerical knowledge has been gathered at ISL within domains like spectrometry, thermodynamics or mechanics. Techniques and devices were developed to study separately each aspect concerned by this topic; optical characterization, thermal investigations, chemical reactions analysis or mechanical examinations are beyond carried out to neatly estimate essential key values. Results from these diverse tasks are then incorporated into analytic or FE numerical models that were elaborated, for example, to predict thermal repercussion on explosive charges or mechanical failures of structures. These simulations highlight the influence of each phenomenon during the laser irradiation and forecast experimental observations with good accuracy.

Keywords: composite materials, countermeasure, experimental work, high-energy laser, laser-matter interaction, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Mathias U. Bonet, Pericles Pilidis, Georgios Doulgeris

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A gas turbine-powered cruise Liner is scheduled to transport pilgrim passengers from Lagos-Nigeria to the Islamic port city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Since the gas turbine is an air breathing machine, changes in the density and/or mass flow at the compressor inlet due to an encounter with variations in weather conditions induce negative effects on the performance of the power plant during the voyage. In practice, all deviations from the reference atmospheric conditions of 15 ^oC and 1.103 bar tend to affect the power output and other thermodynamic parameters of the gas turbine cycle. Therefore, this paper seeks to evaluate how a simple cycle marine gas turbine power plant would react under a variety of scenarios that may be encountered during a voyage as the ship sails across the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea before arriving at its designated port of discharge. It is also an assessment that focuses on the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions which deteriorate the efficient operation of the propulsion system due to an increase in resistance that results from some projected levels of the ship hull fouling. The investigated passenger ship is designed to run at a service speed of 22 knots and cover a distance of 5787 nautical miles. The performance evaluation consists of three separate voyages that cover a variety of weather conditions in winter, spring and summer seasons. Real-time daily temperatures and the sea states for the selected transit route were obtained and used to simulate the voyage under the aforementioned operating conditions. Changes in engine firing temperature, power output as well as the total fuel consumed per voyage including other performance variables were separately predicted under both calm and adverse weather conditions. The collated data were obtained online from the UK Meteorological Office as well as the UK Hydrographic Office websites, while adopting the Beaufort scale for determining the magnitude of sea waves resulting from rough weather situations. The simulation of the gas turbine performance and voyage analysis was effected through the use of an integrated Cranfield-University-developed computer code known as ‘Turbomatch’ and ‘Poseidon’. It is a project that is aimed at developing a method for predicting the off design behavior of the marine gas turbine when installed and operated as the main prime mover for both propulsion and powering of all other auxiliary services onboard a passenger cruise liner. Furthermore, it is a techno-economic and environmental assessment that seeks to enable the forecast of the marine gas turbine part and full load performance as it relates to the fuel requirement for a complete voyage.

Keywords: cruise ship, gas turbine, hull fouling, performance, propulsion, weather

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Aleksandra Zieminska-Stolarska, Ireneusz Zbicinski

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Introduction: The objective of the present work was to develop and validate a 3D CFD numerical model for simulating flow through 17 kilometers long dam reservoir of a complex bathymetry. In contrast to flowing waters, dam reservoirs were not emphasized in the early years of water quality modeling, as this issue has never been the major focus of urban development. Starting in the 1970s, however, it was recognized that natural and man-made lakes are equal, if not more important than estuaries and rivers from a recreational standpoint. The Sulejow Reservoir (Central Poland) was selected as the study area as representative of many lowland dam reservoirs and due availability of a large database of the ecological, hydrological and morphological parameters of the lake. Method: 3D, 2-phase and 1-phase CFD models were analysed to determine hydrodynamics in the Sulejow Reservoir. Development of 3D, 2-phase CFD model of flow requires a construction of mesh with millions of elements and overcome serious convergence problems. As 1-phase CFD model of flow in relation to 2-phase CFD model excludes from the simulations the dynamics of waves only, which should not change significantly water flow pattern for the case of lowland, dam reservoirs. In 1-phase CFD model, the phases (water-air) are separated by a plate which allows calculations of one phase (water) flow only. As the wind affects velocity of flow, to take into account the effect of the wind on hydrodynamics in 1-phase CFD model, the plate must move with speed and direction equal to the speed and direction of the upper water layer. To determine the velocity at which the plate will move on the water surface and interacts with the underlying layers of water and apply this value in 1-phase CFD model, the 2D, 2-phase model was elaborated. Result: Model was verified on the basis of the extensive flow measurements (StreamPro ADCP, USA). Excellent agreement (an average error less than 10%) between computed and measured velocity profiles was found. As a result of work, the following main conclusions can be presented: •The results indicate that the flow field in the Sulejow Reservoir is transient in nature, with swirl flows in the lower part of the lake. Recirculating zones, with the size of even half kilometer, may increase water retention time in this region •The results of simulations confirm the pronounced effect of the wind on the development of the water circulation zones in the reservoir which might affect the accumulation of nutrients in the epilimnion layer and result e.g. in the algae bloom. Conclusion: The resulting model is accurate and the methodology develop in the frame of this work can be applied to all types of storage reservoir configurations, characteristics, and hydrodynamics conditions. Large recirculating zones in the lake which increase water retention time and might affect the accumulation of nutrients were detected. Accurate CFD model of hydrodynamics in large water body could help in the development of forecast of water quality, especially in terms of eutrophication and water management of the big water bodies.

Keywords: CFD, mathematical modelling, dam reservoirs, hydrodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Dian Zhang, Brendan Heery, Maria O’Neill, Ciprian Briciu-Burghina, Noel E. O’Connor, Fiona Regan

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Recent developments in sensors, wireless data communication and the cloud computing have brought the sensor web to a whole new generation. The introduction of the concept of ‘Internet of Thing (IoT)’ has brought the sensor research into a new level, which involves the developing of long lasting, low cost, environment friendly and smart sensors; new wireless data communication technologies; big data analytics algorithms and cloud based solutions that are tailored to large scale smart sensor network. The next generation of smart sensor network consists of several layers: physical layer, where all the smart sensors resident and data pre-processes occur, either on the sensor itself or field gateway; data transmission layer, where data and instructions exchanges happen; the data process layer, where meaningful information is extracted and organized from the pre-process data stream. There are many definitions of smart sensor, however, to summarize all these definitions, a smart sensor must be Intelligent and Adaptable. In future large scale sensor network, collected data are far too large for traditional applications to send, store or process. The sensor unit must be intelligent that pre-processes collected data locally on board (this process may occur on field gateway depends on the sensor network structure). In this case study, three smart sensing methods, corresponding to simple thresholding, statistical model and machine learning based MoPBAS method, are introduced and their strength and weakness are discussed as an introduction to the smart sensing concept. Data fusion, the integration of data and knowledge from multiple sources, are key components of the next generation smart sensor network. For example, in the water level monitoring system, weather forecast can be extracted from external sources and if a heavy rainfall is expected, the server can send instructions to the sensor notes to, for instance, increase the sampling rate or switch on the sleeping mode vice versa. In this paper, we describe the deployment of 11 affordable water level sensors in the Dublin catchment. The objective of this paper is to use the deployed river level sensor network at the Dodder catchment in Dublin, Ireland as a case study to give a vision of the next generation of a smart sensor network for flood monitoring to assist agencies in making decisions about deploying resources in the case of a severe flood event. Some of the deployed sensors are located alongside traditional water level sensors for validation purposes. Using the 11 deployed river level sensors in a network as a case study, a vision of the next generation of smart sensor network is proposed. Each key component of the smart sensor network is discussed, which hopefully inspires the researchers who are working in the sensor research domain.

Keywords: smart sensing, internet of things, water level sensor, flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Sogand Barghi

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The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in accounting practices is reshaping the landscape of financial management. This paper explores the innovative applications of AI in the realm of accounting, emphasizing its transformative impact on efficiency, accuracy, decision-making, and financial insights. By harnessing AI's capabilities in data analysis, pattern recognition, and automation, accounting professionals can redefine their roles, elevate strategic decision-making, and unlock unparalleled value for businesses. This paper delves into AI-driven solutions such as automated data entry, fraud detection, predictive analytics, and intelligent financial reporting, highlighting their potential to revolutionize the accounting profession. Artificial intelligence has swiftly emerged as a game-changer across industries, and accounting is no exception. This paper seeks to illuminate the profound ways in which AI is reshaping accounting practices, transcending conventional boundaries, and propelling the profession toward a new era of efficiency and insight-driven decision-making. One of the most impactful applications of AI in accounting is automation. Tasks that were once labor-intensive and time-consuming, such as data entry and reconciliation, can now be streamlined through AI-driven algorithms. This not only reduces the risk of errors but also allows accountants to allocate their valuable time to more strategic and analytical tasks. AI's ability to analyze vast amounts of data in real time enables it to detect irregularities and anomalies that might go unnoticed by traditional methods. Fraud detection algorithms can continuously monitor financial transactions, flagging any suspicious patterns and thereby bolstering financial security. AI-driven predictive analytics can forecast future financial trends based on historical data and market variables. This empowers organizations to make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop proactive strategies that enhance profitability and sustainability. Traditional financial reporting often involves extensive manual effort and data manipulation. With AI, reporting becomes more intelligent and intuitive. Automated report generation not only saves time but also ensures accuracy and consistency in financial statements. While the potential benefits of AI in accounting are undeniable, there are challenges to address. Data privacy and security concerns, the need for continuous learning to keep up with evolving AI technologies, and potential biases within algorithms demand careful attention. The convergence of AI and accounting marks a pivotal juncture in the evolution of financial management. By harnessing the capabilities of AI, accounting professionals can transcend routine tasks, becoming strategic advisors and data-driven decision-makers. The applications discussed in this paper underline the transformative power of AI, setting the stage for an accounting landscape that is smarter, more efficient, and more insightful than ever before. The future of accounting is here, and it's driven by artificial intelligence.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, accounting, automation, predictive analytics, financial reporting

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Delphine Mukaneza, Lin Qiao, Wang Pengxin, Li Yan, Chen Yingyi

Abstract:

Human activities on land use make the land-cover gradually change or transit. In this study, we examined the use of Landsat TM data to detect the land use change of Kigali between 1987 and 2009 using remote sensing techniques and analysis of data using ENVI and ArcGIS, a GIS software. Six different categories of land use were distinguished: bare soil, built up land, wetland, water, vegetation, and others. With remote sensing techniques, we analyzed land use data in 1987, 1999 and 2009, changed areas were found and a dynamic situation of land use in Kigali city was found during the 22 years studied. According to relevant Landsat data, the research focused on land use change in accordance with the role of remote sensing in the process of urbanization. The result of the work has shown the rapid increase of built up land between 1987 and 1999 and a big decrease of vegetation caused by the rebuild of the city after the 1994 genocide, while in the period of 1999 to 2009 there was a reduction in built up land and vegetation, after the authority of Kigali city established, a Master Plan where all constructions which were not in the range of the master Plan were destroyed. Rwanda's capital, Kigali City, through the expansion of the urban area, it is increasing the internal employment rate and attracts business investors and the service sector to improve their economy, which will increase the population growth and provide a better life. The overall planning of the city of Kigali considers the environment, land use, infrastructure, cultural and socio-economic factors, the economic development and population forecast, urban development, and constraints specification. To achieve the above purpose, the Government has set for the overall planning of city Kigali, different stages of the detailed description of the design, strategy and action plan that would guide Kigali planners and members of the public in the future to have more detailed regional plans and practical measures. Thus, land use change is significantly the performance of Kigali active human area, which plays an important role for the country to take certain decisions. Another area to take into account is the natural situation of Kigali city. Agriculture in the region does not occupy a dominant position, and with the population growth and socio-economic development, the construction area will gradually rise and speed up the process of urbanization. Thus, as a developing country, Rwanda's population continues to grow and there is low rate of utilization of land, where urbanization remains low. As mentioned earlier, the 1994 genocide massacres, population growth and urbanization processes, have been the factors driving the dramatic changes in land use. The focus on further research would be on analysis of Rwanda’s natural resources, social and economic factors that could be, the driving force of land use change.

Keywords: land use change, urbanization, Kigali City, Landsat

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Authors: Rumbidzai Sipiwe Zimvumi

Abstract:

The study aimed to identify the top management team attributes for ambidexterity in small and medium-sized enterprises by utilizing the upper echelons theory. The conventional opinion holds that an organization's ability to pursue both exploitative and explorative innovation methods at the same time is reflected in its ambidexterity. Top-level managers are critical to this matrix because they forecast and explain strategic choices that guarantee success by improving organizational performance. Since the focus of the study was on the unique characteristics of TMTs that can facilitate ambidexterity, the primary goal was to comprehend how TMTs in SMEs can better manage ambidexterity. The study used document analysis to collect information on ambidexterity and TMT traits. Finding, choosing, assessing, and synthesizing data from peer-reviewed publications allowed for the review and evaluation of papers. The fact that SMEs will perform better if they can achieve a balance between exploration and exploitation cannot be overstated. Unfortunately, exploitation is the main priority for most SMEs. The results showed that some of the noteworthy TMT traits that support ambidexterity in SMEs are age diversity, shared responsibility, leadership impact, psychological safety, and self-confidence. It has been shown that most SMEs confront significant obstacles in recruiting people, including formalizing their management and assembling executive teams with seniority. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are often held by families or people who neglect to keep their personal lives apart from the firm, which eliminates the opportunity for management and staff to take the initiative. This helps to explain why exploitative strategies, which preserve present success, are used rather than explorative strategies, which open new economic opportunities and dimensions. It is evident that psychological safety deteriorates, and creativity is hindered in the process. The study makes the case that TMTs who are motivated to become ambidextrous can exist. According to the report, small- and medium-sized business owners should value the opinions of all parties involved and provide their managers and regular staff the freedom to think creatively and in a safe environment. TMTs who experience psychological safety are more likely to be inventive, creative, and productive. A team's collective perception that it is acceptable to take chances, voice opinions and concerns, ask questions, and own up to mistakes without fear of unfavorable outcomes is known as team psychological safety. Thus, traits like age diversity, leadership influence, learning agility, psychological safety, and self-assurance are critical to the success of SMEs. As a solution to ensuring ambidexterity is attained, the study suggests a clear separation of ownership and control, the adoption of technology to stimulate creativity, team spirit and excitement, shared accountability, and good management of diversity. Among the suggestions for the SME's success are resource allocation and important collaborations.

Keywords: navigating, ambidexterity, top management team, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Domenico Carmelo Mongelli

Abstract:

The context is that of great uncertainty in the 27 countries belonging to the European Union which has adopted an epochal measure: the elimination of internal combustion engines for the traction of road vehicles starting from 2035 with complete replacement with electric vehicles. If on the one hand there is great concern at various levels for the unpreparedness for this change, on the other the Scientific Community is not preparing accurate studies on the problem, as the scientific literature deals with single aspects of the issue, moreover addressing the issue at the level of individual countries, losing sight of the global implications of the issue for the entire EU. The aim of the research is to fill these gaps: the technological, plant engineering, environmental, economic and employment aspects of the energy transition in question are addressed and connected to each other, comparing the current situation with the different scenarios that could exist in 2035 and in the following years until total disposal of the internal combustion engine vehicle fleet for the entire EU. The methodologies adopted by the research consist in the analysis of the entire life cycle of electric vehicles and batteries, through the use of specific databases, and in the dynamic simulation, using specific calculation codes, of the application of the results of this analysis to the entire EU electric vehicle fleet from 2035 onwards. Energy balance sheets will be drawn up (to evaluate the net energy saved), plant balance sheets (to determine the surplus demand for power and electrical energy required and the sizing of new plants from renewable sources to cover electricity needs), economic balance sheets (to determine the investment costs for this transition, the savings during the operation phase and the payback times of the initial investments), the environmental balances (with the different energy mix scenarios in anticipation of 2035, the reductions in CO2eq and the environmental effects are determined resulting from the increase in the production of lithium for batteries), the employment balances (it is estimated how many jobs will be lost and recovered in the reconversion of the automotive industry, related industries and in the refining, distribution and sale of petroleum products and how many will be products for technological innovation, the increase in demand for electricity, the construction and management of street electric columns). New algorithms for forecast optimization are developed, tested and validated. Compared to other published material, the research adds an overall picture of the energy transition, capturing the advantages and disadvantages of the different aspects, evaluating the entities and improvement solutions in an organic overall picture of the topic. The results achieved allow us to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the energy transition, to determine the possible solutions to mitigate these weaknesses and to simulate and then evaluate their effects, establishing the most suitable solutions to make this transition feasible.

Keywords: engines, Europe, mobility, transition

Procedia PDF Downloads 33