Search results for: disease forecast

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Asim Abbasi, Amer Habib, Sajid Hussain, Muhammad Sufyan, Iqra, Hasnain Sajjad

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Except for few scattered cases, powdery mildew disease was not a big problem for watermelon in the past but with the outbreaks of its pathotypes, races 1W and 2W, this disease becomes a serious issue all around the globe. The severe outbreak of this disease also increased the rate of fungicide application for its proper management. Twelve varieties of watermelon were screened in Research Area of Department of Plant pathology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad to check the incidence of powdery mildew disease. Disease inoculum was prepared and applied with the help of foliar spray method. Fungicides and plants extracts were also applied after the disease incidence. Percentage leaf surface area diseased was assessed visually with a modified Horsfall-Barratt scale. The results of the experiment revealed that among all varieties, WT2257 and Zcugma F1 were highly resistant showing less than 5% disease incidence while Anar Kali and Sugar baby were highly susceptible with disease incidence of more than 65%. Among botanicals neem extract gave best results with disease incidence of less than 20%. Besides neem, all other botanicals also gave significant control of powdery mildew disease than the untreated check. In case of fungicides, Gemstar showed least disease incidence i.e. < 10%, however besides control maximum disease incidence was observed in Curzate (> 30%).

Keywords: botanicals, fungicides, pathotypes, powdery mildew

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Syed Dawood M. Taimur

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Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is under diagnosed in primary care practices, yet the extent of unrecognized PAD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown. Objective: To assess the prevalence of previously unrecognized PAD in patients undergoing coronary angiogram and to determine the relationship between the presence of PAD and severity of CAD. Material & Methods: This five years retrospective study was conducted at an invasive lab of the department of Cardiology, Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital & Research Institute from January 2010 to December 2014. Total 77 patients were included in this study. Study variables were age, sex, risk factors like hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, smoking habit and positive family history for ischemic heart disease, coronary artery and peripheral artery profile. Results: Mean age was 56.83±13.64 years, Male mean age was 53.98±15.08 years and female mean age was 54.5±1.73years. Hypertension was detected in 55.8%, diabetes in 87%, dyslipidaemia in 81.8%, smoking habits in 79.2% and 58.4% had a positive family history. After catheterization 88.3% had peripheral arterial disease and 71.4% had coronary artery disease. Out of 77 patients, 52 had both coronary and peripheral arterial disease which was statistically significant (p < .014). Coronary angiogram revealed 28.6% (22) patients had triple vessel disease, 23.3% (18) had single vessel disease, 19.5% (15) had double vessel disease and 28.6% (22) were normal coronary arteries. The peripheral angiogram revealed 54.5% had superficial femoral artery disease, 26% had anterior tibial artery disease, 27.3% had posterior tibial artery disease, 20.8% had common iliac artery disease, 15.6% had common femoral artery disease and 2.6% had renal artery disease. Conclusion: There is a strong and definite correlation between coronary and peripheral arterial disease. We found that cardiovascular risk factors were in fact risk factors for both PAD and CAD.

Keywords: coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease(PVD), risk, factors, correlation, cathetarization

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Authors: W. Soufi, F. Boukli Hacene, S. Ghalem

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease that leads to a progressive and permanent deterioration of nerve cells. This disease is progressively accompanied by an intellectual deterioration leading to psychological manifestations and behavioral disorders that lead to a loss of autonomy. It is the most frequent of degenerative dementia. Alzheimer's disease (AD), which affects a growing number of people, has become a major public health problem in a few years. In the context of the study of the mechanisms governing the evolution of AD disease, we have found that natural flavonoids are good acetylcholinesterase inhibitors that reduce the rate of ßA secretion in neurons. This work is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) which is an enzyme involved in Alzheimer's disease, by methods of molecular modeling. These results will probably help in the development of an effective therapeutic tool in the fight against the development of Alzheimer's disease. Our goal of the research is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) by molecular modeling methods.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, acetylcholinesterase, flavonoids, molecular modeling

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

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The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

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Authors: Zakirul Islam, Yugo Kumokawa, Quoc Thinh Tran, Motoki Kubo

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Clubroot is a disease of cruciferous plant caused by soil born pathogen Plasmodiophora brassicae and can significantly limit the production through rapid spreading. The present study was designed to investigate the effect of cultivation practices (chemical and organic soils) on clubroot disease development in Brassica rapa. Disease index and root bacterial composition were investigated for both chemical and organic soils. The bacterial biomass and diversity in organic soil were higher than those in chemical soil. Disease severity was distinct for two different cultivation methods. The number of endophytic bacteria decreased in the infected root for both soils. The increased number of endophytic bacterial number led to reduce the proliferation of pathogen spore inside the root and thus reduced the disease severity in organic plants.

Keywords: clubroot disease, bacterial biomass, root infection, disease index, chemical cultivation, organic cultivation

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Authors: Fathia Ehmouda Zaid, Reim Abudelnbi

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Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Patients and method: Cross-section study (68) patients diagnosed as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), who visited the outpatient clinic of rheumatology, these patients were interviewed with a structured questionnaire about their past and current clinically for presence of Cardiovascular disease in systemic lupus and use SLEDAI, specific tests [ECG –ECHO –CXRAY] the data are analyzed statistically by Pearson's correlation coefficient was calculated and statistical significance was defined as P< 0.05,during period (2013-2014). Objective: Estimation Cardiovascular disease manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus, correlation with disease activity, morbidity, and mortality. Result: (68) Patients diagnosed as systemic lupus erythematosus' age range from (18-48 years), M=(13±29Y), Sex were female 66/68 (97.1%), male 2/68 (2.9%),duration of disease range[1-15year], M =[7±8y], we found Cardiovascular disease manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus 32/68 (47.1%), correlation with disease activity use SLEDAI,(r= 476** p=0.000),Morbidity,(r= .554**; p=0.000) and mortality (r=.181; p=.139), Cardiovascular disease manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus are pericarditis 8/68 (11.8%), pericardial effusion 6/68 (8.8%), myocarditis 4/68 (5.9 %), valvular lesions (endocarditis) 1/68 (1.5%), pulmonary hypertension (PAH) 12/68 (17.6%), coronary artery disease 1/68 (1.5%), none of patients have conduction abnormalities involvement. Correlation with disease activity use SLEDAI, pericarditis (r= .210, p=.086), pericardial effusion (r= 0.079, p=.520), myocarditis (r= 272*, p=.027), valvular lesions (endocarditis) (r= .112, p= .362), pulmonary hypertension (PAH) (r= .257*, p=.035) and coronary artery disease (r=.075, p=.544) correlation between cardiovascular disease manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus and specific organ involvement we found Mucocutaneous (r=.091 p= .459), musculoskeletal (MSK) (r=.110 p=.373), Renal disease (r=.278*, p=.022), neurologic disease (r=.085, p=.489) and Hematologic disease (r=-.264*, p=.030). Conclusion: Cardiovascular manifestation is more frequent symptoms with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is 47 % correlation with disease activity and morbidity but not with mortality. Recommendations: Focus research to evaluation and an adequate assessment of cardiovascular complications on the morbidity and mortality of the patients with SLE are still required.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, disease activity, mortality

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

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The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

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Authors: H. Parameshwar Naik, Shripad Kulkarni

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Powdery mildew is a serious disease among the fungal in high humid areas with varied temperature conditions. In recent days disease becomes very severe due to uncertain weather conditions and unique character of the disease is, it produces white mycelia growth on upper and lower leaf surfaces and in severe conditions it leads to defoliation. Results of the experiment revealed that sowing of crop in the I fortnight (FN) of July recorded the minimum mean disease severity (7.96 %) followed by crop sown in II FN of July (13.19 %) as against the crop sown in II FN of August (41.44 %) and I FN of September (33.78 %) and the I fortnight of October (33.77 %). In the first date of sowing infection started at 45 DAS and progressed till 73 DAS and it was up to 14.66 Percent and in second date of sowing disease progressed up to 22.66 percent and in the third date of sowing, it was up to 59.35 percent. Afterward, the disease started earlier and progressed up to 66.15 percent and in sixth and seventh date of sowing disease progressed up to 43.15 percent and 59.85 percent respectively. Disease progress is very fast after 45 days after sowing and highest disease incidence was noticed at 73 DAS irrespective of dates of sowing. From the results of the present study, it is very clear that disease development will be very high if crop sown in between 1st fortnight of August and the 1st fortnight of September.

Keywords: cucumber, India, Karnataka, powdery mildew

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Authors: Qamar Iqbal

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Companies strive to improve their forecasting methods to predict the fluctuations in customer demand. These fluctuation and variation in demand affect the manufacturing operations and can limit a company’s ability to fulfill customer demand on time. Companies keep the inventory buffer and maintain the stocking levels to reduce the impact of demand variation. A mid-size company deals with thousands of stock keeping units (skus). It is neither easy and nor efficient to control and manage each sku. Inventory classification provides a tool to the management to increase their ability to support customer demand. The paper presents a framework that shows how inventory classification can play a role to increase supply chain responsiveness. A case study will be presented to further elaborate the method both for build-to-order and build-to-forecast manufacturing environments. Results will be compared that will show which manufacturing setting has advantage over another under different circumstances. The outcome of this study is very useful to the management because this will give them an insight on how inventory classification can be used to increase their ability to respond to changing customer needs.

Keywords: inventory classification, supply chain responsiveness, forecast, manufacturing environment

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Authors: Agi Sunday

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A descriptive analysis of reported cases of sickle cell disease and the level of awareness about genetic counselling in 30 hospitals were carried out. Additionally, 150 individuals between ages 16-45 were randomly selected for evaluation of genetic counselling awareness. The main tools for this study were questionnaires which were taken to hospitals, and individuals completed the others. The numbers of reported cases of sickle cell disease recorded in private, public and teaching hospitals were 14 and 57; 143 and 89; 272 and 57 for the periods of 1995-2000 and 2001-2005, respectively. A general informal genetic counselling took place mostly in the hospitals visited. 122 (86%) individuals had the knowledge of genetic disease and only 43 (30.3%) individuals have been exposed to genetic counselling. 64% of individuals agreed that genetic counselling would help in the prevention of genetic disease.

Keywords: sickle disease, genetic counseling, genetic testing, advocacy

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Shraddha Gopal, Jayam Lazarus

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Aims: To study the referral practice and impact of DAT-scan in the diagnosis or exclusion of Parkinson’s disease. Settings and Designs: A retrospective study Materials and methods: A retrospective study of the results of 60 patients who were referred for a DAT scan over a period of 2 years from the Department of Neurology at Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS trust. The reason for DAT scan referral was noted under 5 categories against Parkinson’s disease; drug-induced Parkinson’s, essential tremors, diagnostic dilemma, not responding to Parkinson’s treatment, and others. We assessed the number of patients who were diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease against the number of patients in whom Parkinson’s disease was excluded or an alternative diagnosis was made. Statistical methods: Microsoft Excel was used for data collection and statistical analysis, Results: 30 of the 60 scans were performed to confirm the diagnosis of early Parkinson’s disease, 13 were done to differentiate essential tremors from Parkinsonism, 6 were performed to exclude drug-induced Parkinsonism, 5 were done to look for alternative diagnosis as the patients were not responding to anti-Parkinson medication and 6 indications were outside the recommended guidelines. 55% of cases were confirmed with a diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease. 43.33% had Parkinson’s disease excluded. 33 of the 60 scans showed bilateral abnormalities and confirmed the clinical diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease. Conclusion: DAT scan provides valuable information in confirming Parkinson’s disease in 55% of patients along with excluding the diagnosis in 43.33% of patients aiding an alternative diagnosis.

Keywords: DATSCAN, Parkinson's disease, diagnosis, essential tremors

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Shukla, Govind Singh, Prabhat Pant Shahzad Ahmad

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Background: Graves’ disease is an autoimmune disorder with a genetic predisposition, and CD40 plays a pathogenic role in various autoimmune diseases. A single nucleotide polymorphism at position –1 of the Kozak sequence of the 5 untranslated regions of the CD40 gene of exon 1 has been reported to be associated with the development of Graves’ Disease. Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate whether CD40 gene polymorphism confers susceptibility to Graves’ disease in the Kumaon region. CD40 gene polymorphisms were studied in Graves’ Disease patients (n=50) and healthy control subjects without anti-thyroid autoantibodies or a family history of autoimmune disorders (n=50). Material and Method: CD40 gene polymorphisms were studied in fifty Graves’ Disease patients and fifty healthy control subjects. All samples were collected from STG Hospital, Haldwani, Nainital. A C/T polymorphism at position –1 of the CD40 gene was measured using the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results: There was no significant difference in allele or genotype frequency of the CD40 SNP between Graves’ Disease and control subjects. There was a significant decrease in the TT genotype frequency in the Graves’ Disease patients who developed Graves’ Disease after 40 years old than those under 40 years of age. These data suggest that the SNP of the CD40 gene is associated with susceptibility to the later onset of Graves’ Disease. Conclusion: The CD40 gene was a different susceptibility gene for Graves’ Disease within certain families because it was both linked and associated with Graves’ Disease.

Keywords: autoimmune diseases, pathogenesis, diagnosis, therapy

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Pármenas Costa Macedo do Nascimento

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Periodontal disease is the most common disease in the oral cavity of felines. It starts with the accumulation of bacteria on the tooth surface supporting the tissues of the periodontal tissue, namely gums, alveolar bone, cementum, and periodontal ligament. The main clinical symptom observed by the owner is bad breath, which may lead to local and systemic consequences depending on the stage of periodontal disease, such as bleeding and bone loss. Therefore, the study is important to educate tutors to take better care of the felines oral health in order to try to prevent the disease. For this epidemiological study, the target population has been felines, located on the outskirts of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas, with a geographic area of 155.68 km², with no defined breed, from October 1st to 10th, 2021, whose samples has been randomly selected, with a detailed profile. The variables of interest for this study have been: absence or presence of periodontal disease, gender, age (delimited by age group), and condition (domiciled or homeless). Using a sample of 40 felines from 4 districts of the east side of Manaus chosen at random, an oral exam has been made to identify the studied disease. The animal's apparent age, condition, sex, and presence or absence of periodontal disease has been noted. It has been observed that 70% (28/40) of them had periodontal disease, mostly females, aged between 0 and 5 years and domiciled, totaling 30% (12/40).

Keywords: felines, oral cavity, oral exam, periodontal disease

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Authors: A. Al Yousef, A. Toulon, L. Petit, S. Fraitag, F. Ruemmele, S. Hadj-Rabia, C. Bodemer

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Cutaneous Crohn’s disease (CCD) refers to an extremely rare granulomatous inflammation of the skin that is non-contiguous to the bowel tract. These cutaneous lesions can occur prior to, concurrent with, or after the gastrointestinal manifestations. In adults, CCD most frequently occurs in the setting of well-documented intestinal disease. Only 20% of cases occur prior to its development. Review of CCD in children, reveals that 86% of cases (24 of 28) occurring in patients without a known diagnosis of intestinal Crohn’s disease. Overall, the genitalia was the most commonly involved location, representing 21 of the 28 cases with 16 vulvar and 5 penile/scrotal lesions.

Keywords: Crohn’s disease, cutaneous manifestations, children, atypical axillary involvement

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Authors: Subramaniam Iyer

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The most common disease that is pertaining to all human beings is heart-related. The reasons for coronary artery disease are due to lifestyle and eating habits. Due to this, many people mentally become sick, feeling that soon they will die due to their heart problems. This results in stress and anxiety, which has become common amongst all the Indians. Medicines are the commonest curative remedy in India, but it is proposed through this article some remedies through yoga. This article does not guarantee a 100% result, but it is a preventive remedy for coronary artery disease. Yoga is giving a new lease of life to many, so to tackle chronic diseases, it provides remedies that will be lifelong. It is brought to many people by Patanjali. Yoga will provide support to patients having coronary artery disease through its various relevant postures (asanas), which can be done very easily. Yoga does not send a message that if you do it regularly, you will be relieved from a particular disease. If it is performed every day, it will add vital energy for a smooth life, even if you are suffering from any chronic disease. In this article, we will be providing 6 postures (asanas), which can be performed at any time in the day, but the early morning will always be preferred (empty stomach) to get a good result. Secondly, these postures must be implemented after due consultation with your physician. If your physician disapproves, don’t do these postures as it will be harmful to your body.

Keywords: coronary artery, yoga, disease, remedy, medicine

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Authors: Habu Musa, Nusaibah Binti Syd Ali

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Oil palm industries particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia are being devastated by Ganoderma disease caused by Ganoderma spp. To date, this disease has been causing serious oil palm yield losses and collapse of oil palm trees, thus affecting its contribution to the producer’s economy. Research on sustainable and eco-friendly remedy to counter Ganoderma disease is on the upsurge to avoid the current control measures via synthetic fungicides. Trichoderma species have been the most studied and valued microbes as biological control agents in an effort to combat a wide range of plant diseases sustainably. Therefore, in this current study, the potential of Trichoderma spp. (Trichoderma asperellum, Trichoderma harzianum, and Trichoderma virens) as a consortium approach was evaluated as biological control agents against Ganoderma disease on oil palm. The consortium of Trichoderma spp. applied found to be the most effective treatment in suppressing Ganoderma disease with 83.03% and 89.16% from the foliar and bole symptoms respectively. Besides, it exhibited tremendous enhancement in the oil palm seedling vegetative growth parameters. Also, it had highly induced significant activity of peroxidase, polyphenol oxidase and total phenolic content was recorded in the consortium treatment compared to the control treatment. Disease development was slower in the seedlings treated with consortium of Trichoderma spp. compared to the positive control, which exhibited with the highest percentage of disease severity.

Keywords: biological control, ganoderma disease, trichoderma, disease severity

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

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The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Stephen L. Roberts

Abstract:

This article offers a critical analysis of the rise of syndromic surveillance systems for the advanced detection of pandemic threats within contemporary global health security frameworks. The article traces the iterative evolution and ascendancy of three such novel syndromic surveillance systems for the strengthening of health security initiatives over the past two decades: 1) The Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED-mail); 2) The Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN); and 3) HealthMap. This article demonstrates how each newly introduced syndromic surveillance system has become increasingly oriented towards the integration of digital algorithms into core surveillance capacities to continually harness and forecast upon infinitely generating sets of digital, open-source data, potentially indicative of forthcoming pandemic threats. This article argues that the increased centrality of the algorithm within these next-generation syndromic surveillance systems produces a new and distinct form of infectious disease surveillance for the governing of emergent pathogenic contingencies. Conceptually, the article also shows how the rise of this algorithmic mode of infectious disease surveillance produces divergences in the governmental rationalities of global health security, leading to the rise of an algorithmic governmentality within contemporary contexts of Big Data and these surveillance systems. Empirically, this article demonstrates how this new form of algorithmic infectious disease surveillance has been rapidly integrated into diplomatic, legal, and political frameworks to strengthen the practice of global health security – producing subtle, yet distinct shifts in the outbreak notification and reporting transparency of states, increasingly scrutinized by the algorithmic gaze of syndromic surveillance.

Keywords: algorithms, global health, pandemic, surveillance

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Authors: Asho Ali

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Tuberculosis is a disease of grave concern which infects one-third of the global population. The high incidence of tuberculosis is further compounded by the increasing emergence of drug resistant strains including multi drug resistant (MDR). Global incidence MDR-TB is ~4%. Molecular epidemiological studies, based on the assumption that patients infected with clustered strains are epidemiologically linked, have helped understand the transmission dynamics of disease. It has also helped to investigate the basis of variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains, differences in transmission, and severity of disease or drug resistance mechanisms from across the globe. This has helped in developing strategies for the treatment and prevention of the disease including MDR.

Keywords: Mycobcaterium tuberculosis, molecular epidemiology, drug resistance, disease

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Stephanie Newman

Abstract:

Niemann-Pick Type C disease is a rare, usually fatal lysosomal storage disorder. Although clinically characterized by progressive neurodegeneration, there is also evidence of altered innate immune responses such as neuroinflammation that promote disease progression. We have initiated an investigation into whether phagocytosis, an important innate immune activity and the process by which particles are ingested is defective in NPC. Using an in vitro assay, we have shown that NPC macrophages have a deficiency in the phagocytosis of different particles. We plan to investigate the mechanistic basis for impaired phagocytosis, the contribution that this deficiency makes to disease pathology, and whether therapies that have shown in vivo benefit are able to restore phagocytic activity.

Keywords: Niemann Pick Disease C, phagocytosis, innate immunity, lysosomal storage disorder

Procedia PDF Downloads 364