Search results for: climate data validation

Authors: Shashank Tiwari, S. P. Mahapatra

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The aim of this technique is to reduce the steps of process scales up, save time & cost of the industries. This technique will minimise the steps of process scale up. The new steps are, Novel Lab Scale, Novel Lab Scale Trials, Novel Trial Batches, Novel Exhibit Batches, Novel Validation Batches. In these steps, it is not divided to validation batches in three parts but the data of trials batches, Exhibit Batches and Validation batches are use and compile for production and used for validation. It also increases the batch size of the trial, exhibit batches. The new size of trials batches is not less than fifty Thousand, the exhibit batches increase up to two lack and the validation batches up to five lack. After preparing the batches all their data & drugs use for stability & maintain the validation record and compile data for the technology transfer in production department for preparing the marketed size batches.

Keywords: batches, technique, preparation, scale up, validation

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Authors: M. A. I Perera, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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his study was conducted to review and identify the unsupervised techniques that can be employed to analyze gene expression data in order to identify better subtypes of tumors. Identifying subtypes of cancer help in improving the efficacy and reducing the toxicity of the treatments by identifying clues to find target therapeutics. Process of gene expression data analysis described under three steps as preprocessing, clustering, and cluster validation. Feature selection is important since the genomic data are high dimensional with a large number of features compared to samples. Hierarchical clustering and K Means are often used in the analysis of gene expression data. There are several cluster validation techniques used in validating the clusters. Heatmaps are an effective external validation method that allows comparing the identified classes with clinical variables and visual analysis of the classes.

Keywords: cancer subtypes, gene expression data analysis, clustering, cluster validation

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Authors: Takele Nemomsa, Girma Mamo, Tesfaye Balemi

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Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variance of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. In Ethiopia; Maize production in relation to climate change at regional and sub- regional scales have not been studied in detail. Thus, this study was aimed to analyse the impact of climate change on maize yield in Ambo Districts, Central Ethiopia. To this effect, weather data, soil data and maize experimental data for Arganne hybrid were used. APSIM software was used to investigate the response of maize (Zea mays) yield to different agronomic management practices using current and future (2020s–2080s) climate data. The climate change projections data which were downscaled using SDSM were used as input of climate data for the impact analysis. Compared to agronomic practices the impact of climate change on Arganne in Central Ethiopia is minute. However, within 2020s-2080s in Ambo area; the yield of Arganne hybrid is projected to reduce by 1.06% to 2.02%, and in 2050s it is projected to reduce by 1.56 While in 2080s; it is projected to increase by 1.03% to 2.07%. Thus, to adapt to the changing climate; farmers should consider increasing plant density and fertilizer rate per hectare.

Keywords: APSIM, downscaling, response, SDSM

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

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Authors: Neli P. Zlatareva

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Ontology validation is an important part of web applications’ development, where knowledge integration and ontological reasoning play a fundamental role. It aims to ensure the consistency and correctness of ontological knowledge and to guarantee that ontological reasoning is carried out in a meaningful way. Existing approaches to ontology validation address more or less specific validation issues, but the overall process of validating web ontologies has not been formally established yet. As the size and the number of web ontologies continue to grow, the necessity to validate and ensure their consistency and interoperability is becoming increasingly important. This paper presents a validation technique intended to test the consistency of independent ontologies utilized by a common application.

Keywords: knowledge engineering, ontological reasoning, ontology validation, semantic web

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Authors: W. A. D. P. Wanigasundera, P. C. B. Alahakoon

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Kandy district in Sri Lanka has small scale and rain-fed paddy farming, and highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the status of climate change was assessed using meteorological data and compared with the perceptions of paddy farming community. Factors affecting the adaptation to the climate smart farming were also assessed. Meteorological data for 33 years were collected and the changes over time compared with the perceptions of farmers. The temperature, rainfall and number of rainy days have increased in both locations. The onset of rains also has shifted. The perceptions of the majority of the farmers were in line with the actual changes. The knowledge and attitudes about the causes of climate change and adaptation were medium and related to level of adoption. Formulating effective communication strategies, and a collaborative approach involving state, private sector, civil society to make Sri Lankan agriculture ‘climate-smart’ is urgently needed.

Keywords: adaptation of climate-smart technology, climate change, perception, rain-fed paddy

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Authors: Georgia C. Kosta, Christos S. Nicolaidis

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The present paper discusses the role of teams’ climate in the intrapreneurial process. Intrapreneurship, which corresponds for entrepreneurship in existing organizations, puts special emphasis on climate as an influential factor of the intrapreneurial behavior. Although climate exists at every level and in every subgroup of the organizational structure, research focuses mainly on the study of climate that characterizes organization as a whole. However, the climate of a work team may differ radically from the organizational climate, and in fact it can be far more influential. The paper provides a conceptual analysis of organizational climate from the intrapreneurial point of view, and sheds light upon teams’ climate role in the intrapreneurial posture.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, innovation, intrapreneurship, organizational climate, teams’ climate

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Authors: Gashaw Gismu Chakilu

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Climate and land cover change are very important issues in terms of global context and their responses to environmental and socio-economic drivers. The dynamic of these two factors is currently affecting the environment in unbalanced way including watershed hydrology. In this paper individual and combined impacts of climate change and land use land cover change on hydrological processes were evaluated through applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. The regional climate; temperature and rainfall data of the past 40 years in the study area were prepared and changes were detected by using trend analysis applying Mann-Kendall trend test. The land use land cover data were obtained from land sat image and processed by ERDAS IMAGIN 2010 software. Three land use land cover data; 1973, 1986, and 2013 were prepared and these data were used for base line, model calibration and change study respectively. The effects of these changes on high flow and low flow of the catchment have also been evaluated separately. The high flow of the catchment for these two decades was analyzed by using Annual Maximum (AM) model and the low flow was evaluated by seven day sustained low flow model. Both temperature and rainfall showed increasing trend; and then the extent of changes were evaluated in terms of monthly bases by using two decadal time periods; 1973-1982 was taken as baseline and 2004-2013 was used as change study. The efficiency of the model was determined by Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and Relative Volume error (RVe) and their values were 0.65 and 0.032 for calibration and 0.62 and 0.0051 for validation respectively. The impact of climate change was higher than that of land use land cover change on stream flow of the catchment; the flow has been increasing by 16.86% and 7.25% due to climate and LULC change respectively, and the combined change effect accounted 22.13% flow increment. The overall results of the study indicated that Climate change is more responsible for high flow than low flow; and reversely the land use land cover change showed more significant effect on low flow than high flow of the catchment. From the result we conclude that the hydrology of the catchment has been altered because of changes of climate and land cover of the study area.

Keywords: climate, LULC, SWAT, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sombol Mokhles

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Tackling climate change requires expanding networking opportunities between a diverse range of cities to accelerate climate actions. Existing climate city networks have limitations in actively engaging “ordinary” cities in networking processes between cities, as they encourage a few powerful cities to be followed by the many “ordinary” cities. To reimagine the networking opportunities between cities beyond global cities, this paper incorporates “cosmopolitan comparison” to expand our knowledge of a diverse range of cities using a data-driven approach. Through a cosmopolitan perspective, a framework is presented on how to utilise large data to expand knowledge of cities beyond global cities to reimagine the existing hierarchical networking practices. The contribution of this framework is beyond urban climate governance but inclusive of different fields which strive for a more inclusive and cosmopolitan comparison attentive to the differences across cities.

Keywords: cosmopolitan city comparison, data-driven approach, climate city networking, urban climate governance

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Authors: Sincy Wilson

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This article focuses on the data scattered throughout the 2020 Report on migration for a variety of reasons. Despite the fact that climate migrants are no longer recognized on an international or national level, their situation remains unchanged, and many countries have already encountered the problem of people entering their country without permission. With the information presented in the paper, researchers are focusing on climate-induced displacement rather than conflict-related migration. The author finishes by stating that there is no time to waste in recognizing climate migrants.

Keywords: climate refugees, climatological factors, migration, slow-onset migration

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

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Authors: Emmanuel Bintaayi Jeil, Kabila Abass, David Forkuor, Divine Odame Appiah

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In Ghana, the nature and trends of climate change-related research are not clear. This study synthesises various research evidence on climate change published in Ghana between 1999 and 2018. Data for the review was gathered using a set of search words performed in Google Scholar, Web of Science, ProQuest, and ScienceDirect following scoping review guidelines stipulated by the Joanna Briggs Institute. Data were analysed using a scoping review. A total of 114 eligible articles were identified and included in the synthesis. Findings revealed that research on climate change in Ghana is growing steadily, and most of the studies were conducted in 2018. Trends in climate change research in Ghana relate to agriculture and development. There is a lack of attention on climate change issues related to women, water availability and management, and health. Future research should therefore focus on addressing these issues in addition to alternative livelihoods for vulnerable people.

Keywords: scoping review, trends, climate change, research, Ghana

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Authors: Jane O. Munonye

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Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam

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Authors: Sujo Meghwar, Zulfqar Ali laghari, Kanji Harijan, Muhib Ali Lagari, G. M. Mastoi, Ali Mohammad Rind

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Thar Desert is the most populous Desert of the world. Climate variation in Thar Desert has induced an increase in the magnitude of drought. The variation in climate variation has caused a decrease in natural vegetations. Some plant species are eliminated forever. We have applied the SPI (standardized precipitation index) climate model to investigate the drought induced by climate change. We have gathered the anthropogenic response through a developed questionnaire. The data was analyzed in SPSS version 18. The met-data of two meteorological station elaborated by the time series has suggested an increase in temperature from 1-2.5 centigrade, the decrease in rain fall rainfall from 5-25% and reduction in humidity from 5-12 mm in the 20th century. The anthropogenic responses indicate high impact of climate change on human life and vegetations. Triangle data, we have collected, gives a new insight into the understanding of an association between climate change, drought and human activities.

Keywords: Thar desert, human impact, vegetations, temperature, rainfall, humidity

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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This study investigates the level of awareness to climate change and major factors that influence such awareness in Grande Riviere, Trinidad. Through the development of an Awareness Index and application of a Structural Equation Model to survey data, the findings suggest an Awareness index value of 0.459 in Grande Riviere. These results suggest that households have climate smart attitudes and behaviors but climate knowledge is lacking. This is supported by the structural equation model which shows a negative relationship between awareness and causes of climate change. The study concludes by highlighting the need for immediate action on increasing knowledge.

Keywords: awareness, climate change, climate education, index structural equation model

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Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

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When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production

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Authors: Amdouni Hamida, Gammoudi Mohamed Mohsen

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In order to help the expert to validate association rules extracted from data, some quality measures are proposed in the literature. We distinguish two categories: objective and subjective measures. The first one depends on a fixed threshold and on data quality from which the rules are extracted. The second one consists on providing to the expert some tools in the objective to explore and visualize rules during the evaluation step. However, the number of extracted rules to validate remains high. Thus, the manually mining rules task is very hard. To solve this problem, we propose, in this paper, a semi-automatic method to assist the expert during the association rule's validation. Our method uses rule-based classification as follow: (i) We transform association rules into classification rules (classifiers), (ii) We use the generated classifiers for data classification. (iii) We visualize association rules with their quality classification to give an idea to the expert and to assist him during validation process.

Keywords: association rules, rule-based classification, classification quality, validation

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

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As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an "optimal" value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: cross validation, parameter averaging, parameter selection, regularization parameter search

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Authors: Suhair Mereish

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This research is aimed at examining the climate for innovation in organisations with the aim of validating the psychometric properties of the Team Climate Inventory (TCI -14) for Jordan’s collectivist society. The innovativeness of teams may be improved or obstructed by the climate within the team. Further, personal factors are considered an important element that influences the climate for innovation. Accordingly, measuring the employees' personality traits using the Big Five Inventory (BFI-44) could provide insights that aid in understanding how to improve innovation. Thus, studying the climate for innovation and its associations with personality traits is valuable, considering the insights it could offer on employee performance, job satisfaction, and well-being. Essentially, the Team Climate Inventory instrument has never been tested in Jordan’s collectivist society. Accordingly, in order to address the existing gap in the literature as a whole and, more specifically, in Jordan, it is essential to investigate its factorial structure and reliability in this particular context. It is also important to explore whether the factorial structure of the Team Climate Inventory in Jordan’s collectivist society demonstrates a similar or different structure to what has been found in individualistic ones. Lastly, examining if there are associations between the Team Climate Inventory and personality traits of Jordanian employees is pivotal. The quantitative study was carried out among Jordanian employees employed in two of the top 20 companies in Jordan, a shipping and logistics company (N=473) and a telecommunications company (N=219). To generalise the findings, this was followed by collecting data from the general population of this country (N=399). The participants completed the Team Climate Inventory. Confirmatory factor analyses and reliability tests were conducted to confirm the factorial structure, validity, and reliability of the inventory. Findings presented that the four-factor structure of the Team Climate Inventory in Jordan revealed a similar structure to the ones in Western culture. The four-factor structure has been confirmed with good fit indices and reliability values. Moreover, for climate for innovation, regression analysis identified agreeableness (positive) and neuroticism (negative) from the Big Five Inventory as significant predictors. This study will contribute to knowledge in several ways. First, by examining the reliability and factorial structure in a Jordanian collectivist context rather than a Western individualistic one. Second, by comparing the Team Climate Inventory structure in Jordan with findings for the Team Climate Inventory from Western individualistic societies. Third, by studying its relationships with personality traits in that country. Furthermore, findings from this study will assist practitioners in the field of organisational psychology and development to improve the climate for innovation for employees working in organisations in Jordan. It is also expected that the results of this research will provide recommendations to professionals in the business psychology sector regarding the characteristics of employees who hold positive and negative perceptions of the workplace climate.

Keywords: big five inventory, climate for innovation, collectivism, individualism, Jordan, team climate inventory

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Authors: Cynthia E. Nwobodo, A. E. Agwu

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The study was carried out in Benue State, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 120 respondents from two agricultural zones in the State. Data was collected using interview schedule. Descriptive statistics was used in data analysis. Findings showed that youth farmers in the area had positive attitude to climate change adaptation and mitigation as shown by their response to a set of positive and negative statement including: the youth are very important stakeholders in climate change issues (M= 2.91), youths should be encouraged to be climate change conscious (2.90), everybody should be involved in planting trees not just the government (M= 2.89), I will be glad to participate in climate change seminars (M= 2.89) among others. Findings on information seeking behavior indicate that majority (80.8 %) of the respondents sought climate change information from radio at an average of 19.78 times per month, 53.3 % sought from friends and neighbours at an average of 12.55 times per month and 42.5 % sought from family members at an average of 12.55 times per month among others. It was recommended that Youth farmers should be made important stakeholders in climate change policies and programmes since they have a very positive attitude to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Keywords: adaptation, mitigation, attitude, climate change, youth farmers

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Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climate and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst island, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil nature make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long-term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at the Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for period of 2020-2090 under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources will be adversely affected by climate change during dry years. The area is projected to variably experience 2.53-22.80% decrease of spring discharge. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry years. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental necessities across other tropical karst islands in the future.

Keywords: climate change, groundwater, management strategies, tropical karst island, Rote Island, Indonesia

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Authors: Pelin Kinay, Andy P. Morse, Elmer V. Villanueva, Karyn Morrissey, Philip L Staddon, Shanzheng Zhang, Jingjing Liu

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The present study aims to evaluate the climate change and health related knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of the elderly population (60 years plus) in Hefei and Suzhou cities of China (n=300). This cross-sectional study includes 150 participants in each city. Data regarding demographic characteristics, KAP, and climate change perceptions were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. When asked about the potential impacts of climate change over 79% of participants stated that climate change affected their lifestyle. Participants were most concerned about storms (51.7%), food shortage (33.3%) and drought (26%). The main health risks cited included water contamination (32%), air pollution related diseases (38.3%) and lung disease (43%). Finally, a majority (68.3%) did not report receiving government assistance on climate change issues. Logistic regression models were used to analyse the data in order to understand the links between socio-demographical factors and KAP of the participants. These findings provide insights for potential adaptation strategies targeting the elderly. It is recommended that government should take responsibility in creating awareness strategies to improve the coping capacity of elderly in China to climate change and its health impacts and develop climate change adaptation strategies.

Keywords: China, climate change, elderly, KAP

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Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

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Authors: Laras Tursilowati, Bambang Siswanto

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Urban climate change has short- and long-term implications for decision-makers in urban development. The problem for this important metropolitan regional of population and economic value is that there is very little usable information on climate change. Research about urban climate change has been carried out in Bali Indonesia by using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) that runs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5. The history data means average data from 1975 to 2005, climate projections with RCP4.5 scenario means average data from 2006 to 2099, and anomaly (urban climate change) is RCP4.5 minus history. The results are the history of temperature between 22.5-27.5 OC, and RCP4.5 between 25.5-29.5 OC. The temperature anomalies can be seen in most of northern Bali that increased by about 1.6 to 2.9 OC. There is a reduced humidity tendency (drier) in most parts of Bali, especially the northern part of Bali, while a small portion in the south increase moisture (wetter). The comfort index of Bali region in history is still relatively comfortable (20-26 OC), but on the condition RCP4.5 there is no comfortable area with index more than 26 OC (hot and dry). This research is expected to be useful to help the government make good urban planning.

Keywords: CCAM, comfort index, IPCC AR5, temperature, urban climate change

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Authors: Weishou Shen, Chunyan Yang, Zhongliang Li

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The crop climate productivity and the distribution of cropland reflect long-term adaption of agriculture to climate. In order to fully understand the impact of climate change on cropland ecosystem in Tibet, the spatiotemporal changes of crop climate productivity and cropland distribution were analyzed with the help of GIS and RS software. Results indicated that the climate change to the direction of wet and warm in Tibet in the recent 30 years, with a rate of 0.79℃/10 yr and 23.28 mm/10yr respectively. Correspondingly, the climate productivity increased gradually, with a rate of 346.3kg/(hm2•10a), of which, the fastest-growing rate of the crop climate productivity is in Southern Tibet Mountain- plain-valley. During the study period, the total cropland area increased from 32.54 million ha to 37.13 million ha, and cropland has expanded to higher altitude area and northward. Overall, increased cropland area and crop climate productivity due to climate change plays a positive role for agriculture in Tibet.

Keywords: climate change, productivity, cropland area, Tibet plateau

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

Abstract:

Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Yoonsuh Jung, Steven N. MacEachern

Abstract:

Check loss function is used to define quantile regression. In the prospect of cross validation, it is also employed as a validation function when underlying truth is unknown. However, our empirical study indicates that the validation with check loss often leads to choosing an over estimated fits. In this work, we suggest a modified or L2-adjusted check loss which rounds the sharp corner in the middle of check loss. It has a large effect of guarding against over fitted model in some extent. Through various simulation settings of linear and non-linear regressions, the improvement of check loss by L2 adjustment is empirically examined. This adjustment is devised to shrink to zero as sample size grows.

Keywords: cross-validation, model selection, quantile regression, tuning parameter selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 240