Search results for: random match probability

Authors: John Akinwumi Makinde

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Nigerian manufacturing industry, particularly the fast moving consumer producing firms play vital roles in Nigerian economy. This sector’s product acceptability is given very little attention along with social media advertising that communicate product information to audience across the globe need to be documented. Procter and Gamble Plc operate in Nigeria with appreciable number of fast moving consumer goods that service Nigerian economy. Social media advertising disposition of the company and product acceptability of the company deserve some elucidations. This study therefore examined the impact of social media advertising on product acceptability of FMCG in Nigerian manufacturing industry, using Procter and Gamble Plc as case study. The study employed the case study type of descriptive survey research design. The population consisted of 235 customers of G&P Plc, which were selected through random sampling method. A total of 235 copies of questionnaires titled 'Social Media Advertising and Product Acceptability (SMA-PA) Questionnaire' was administered and retrieved. Data generated were analysed using frequency distribution and regression analysis at 0.05 level. It was found that social media advertising positively and significantly motivated customers to buy product of P&G Plc (r =.147**, N= 235, p(.000) < .01). Findings also showed that social media advertising has significant impact on product acceptability of FCMG in P&G Plc (F(2,61)=22.250; R2=.629; P(.000) < .05). The study concluded that social media advertising is a determinant factor of consumer decision to accept fast moving consumer goods in Nigerian manufacturing industry. It is recommended that with the growing market of FMCG, there is need to educate the market with the product unique features, standard and quality on social media. Finally, Fast Moving Consumer Goods firms should deploy excellent marketing mix on social media.

Keywords: advertising, fast moving consumer goods, manufacturing industry, product acceptability, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Yasir Memon

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The complexity and challenges in the offshore industry are increasing more than the past. The oil and gas industry is expanding every day by accomplishing these challenges. More challenging wells such as longer and deeper are being drilled in today’s environment. Blowout prevention phenomena hold a worthy importance in oil and gas biosphere. In recent, so many past years when the oil and gas industry was growing drilling operation were extremely dangerous. There was none technology to determine the pressure of reservoir and drilling hence was blind operation. A blowout arises when an uncontrolled reservoir pressure enters in wellbore. A potential of blowout in the oil industry is the danger for the both environment and the human life. Environmental damage, state/country regulators, and the capital investment causes in loss. There are many cases of blowout in the oil the gas industry caused damage to both human and the environment. A huge capital investment is being in used to stop happening of blowout through all over the biosphere to bring damage at the lowest level. The objective of this study is to promote safety and good resources to assure safety and environmental integrity in all operations during drilling. This study shows that human errors and management failure is the main cause of blowout therefore proper management with the wise use of precautions, prevention methods or controlling techniques can reduce the probability of blowout to a minimum level. It also discusses basic procedures, concepts and equipment involved in well control methods and various steps using at various conditions. Furthermore, another aim of this study work is to highlight management role in oil gas operations. Moreover, this study analyze the causes of Blowout of Macondo well occurred in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010, and deliver the recommendations and analysis of various aspect of well control methods and also provides the list of mistakes and compromises that British Petroleum and its partner were making during drilling and well completion methods and also the Macondo well disaster happened due to various safety and development rules violation. This case study concludes that Macondo well blowout disaster could be avoided with proper management of their personnel’s and communication between them and by following safety rules/laws it could be brought to minimum environmental damage.

Keywords: energy, environment, oil and gas industry, Macondo well accident

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: S. A. Salau, I. F. Ayanda, I. Afe, M. O. Adesina, N. B. Nofiu

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Food insecurity is still a critical challenge among rural and urban households in Nigeria. The country’s food insecurity situation became more pronounced due to frequent conflict between pastoralist and crop farmers. Thus, this study assesses pastoralist-crop farmers’ conflict and food security of farming households in Kwara state, Nigeria. The specific objectives are to measure the food security status of the respondents, quantify pastoralist- crop farmers’ conflict, determine the effect of pastoralist- crop farmers conflict on food security and describe the effective coping strategies adopted by the respondents to reduce the effect of food insecurity. A combination of purposive and simple random sampling techniques will be used to select 250 farming households for the study. The analytical tools include descriptive statistics, Likert-scale, logistic regression, and food security index. Using the food security index approach, the percentage of households that were food secure and insecure will be known. Pastoralist- crop farmers’ conflict will be measured empirically by quantifying loses due to the conflict. The logistic regression will indicate if pastoralist- crop farmers’ conflict is a critical determinant of food security among farming households in the study area. The coping strategies employed by the respondents in cushioning the effects of food insecurity will also be revealed. Empirical studies on the effect of pastoralist- crop farmers’ conflict on food security are rare in the literature. This study will quantify conflict and reveal the direction as well as the extent of the relationship between conflict and food security. It could contribute to the identification and formulation of strategies for the minimization of conflict among pastoralist and crop farmers in an attempt to reduce food insecurity. Moreover, this study could serve as valuable reference material for future researches and open up new areas for further researches.

Keywords: agriculture, conflict, coping strategies, food security, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Simin Shahvazi, Sepideh Soltani, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Russell J. De Souza, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Background and Objectives: Vitamin D has received attention for its potential to disrupt cancer processes such as attenuating cell proliferation and exacerbating differentiation and apoptosis. However, whether there exists a role for vitamin D in the treatment of prostate cancer specifically remains controversial. We systematically review the literature to assess whether supplementation with vitamin D influences PSA response and overall survival in patients with prostate cancer. Methods: We searched PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science and Google scholar from inception through up to 10 September 2017 for both before-and-after and randomized trials that evaluated the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the prostate specific antigen (PSA) response rate in participants with prostate cancer. The DerSimonian and Laird, inverse-weighted random-effects model was used to pool effect estimates from the studies. Heterogeneity and potential publication bias were evaluated. Subgroup analyses were also performed. Results: Twenty-two studies (16 before-after and 6 randomized controlled trials) were found and included in meta-analysis. The analysis on controlled clinical trials revealed that PSA change from baseline [weighted mean difference (WMD) = -1.66 ng/ml, 95%CI: -0.69, 0.36, P= 0.543)], PSA response (RR=1.18, 95%CI: 0.97, 1.45, P=0.104) and mortality rate (risk ratio (RR) = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.81-1.36; P=0.713) was not significantly different between vitamin D supplementation and placebo groups. Single arm trials revealed that vitamin D supplementation had had a modest effect on PSA response rate: 19% of those enrolled had at least a 50% reduction in PSA by the end of treatment (95% CI: 7% to 31%; p=0.002). Conclusion: We found that vitamin D modestly increases the PSA response rate in single arm studies. No effect on serum PSA levels, PSA response and mortality was seen in randomized controlled clinical trials. It does not seem patients with prostate cancer benefit from vitamin D supplementation.

Keywords: mortality, prostatic neoplasms, PSA response, vitamin D

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Jenan Shakoor

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Obesity prevalence is increasing worldwide. University life is a challenging period especially for students who have to leave their familiar surroundings and settle in a new environment. The current study aimed to assess the diet and exercise habits and their association with body mass index (BMI) among nursing college students living at Kirkuk University residence. This was a descriptive study. A non-probability (purposive) sample of 101 students living in Kirkuk University residence was recruited during the period from the 15^th November 2015 to the 5^th May 2016. A questionnaire was constructed for the purpose of the study which consisted of four parts: the demographic characteristics of the study sample, eating habits, eating at college and healthy habits. The data were collected by interviewing the study sample and the weight and height were measured by a trained researcher at the college. Descriptive statistical analysis was undertaken. Data were prepared, organized and entered into the computer file; the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 20) was used for data analysis. A p value≤ 0.05 was accepted as statistical significant. A total of 63 (62.4%) of the sample were aged20-21with a mean age of 22.1 (SD±0.653). A third of the sample 38 (37.6%) were from level four at college, 67 (66.3%) were female and 46 45.5% of participants were from a middle socio-economic status. 14 (13.9%) of the study sample were overweight (BMI =25-29.9kg/m²) and 6 (5.9%) were obese (BMI≥30kg/m²) compared to 73 (72.3%) were of normal weight (BMI =18.5-24.9kg/m²). With regard to eating habits and exercise, 42 (41.6%) of the students rarely ate breakfast, 79 (78.2%) eat lunch at university residence, 77 (78.2%) of the students reported rarely doing exercise and 62 (61.4%) of them were sleeping for less than eight hours. No significant association was found between the variables age, sex, level of college and socio-economic status and BMI, while there was a significant association between eating lunch at university and BMI (p =0.03). No significant association was found between eating habits, healthy habits and BMI. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among the study sample was 19.8% with female students being more obese than males. Further studies are needed to identify BMI among residence students in other colleges and increasing the awareness of undergraduate students to healthy food habits.

Keywords: body mass index, diet, obesity, university residence

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Kyungsuk Cho, Seungun Chae, Jihun Choi

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Elevators are examined as one of evacuation methods in super-tall buildings. However, data on the use of elevators for evacuation at a fire are extremely scarce. Therefore, a test to measure delay time in using an evacuation elevator was conducted. In the test, time taken to get on and get off an elevator was measured and the case in which people gave up boarding when the capacity of the elevator was exceeded was also taken into consideration. 170 men and women participated in the test, 130 of whom were young people (20 ~ 50 years old) and 40 were senior citizens (over 60 years old). The capacity of the elevator was 25 people and it travelled between the 2nd and 4th floors. A video recording device was used to analyze the test. An elevator at an ordinary building, not a super-tall building, was used in the test to measure delay time in getting on and getting off an elevator. In order to minimize interference from other elements, elevator platforms on the 2nd and 4th floors were partitioned off. The elevator travelled between the 2nd and 4th floors where people got on and off. If less than 20 people got on the elevator which was empty, the data were excluded. If the elevator carrying 10 passengers stopped and less than 10 new passengers got on the elevator, the data were excluded. Getting-on an empty elevator was observed 49 times. The average number of passengers was 23.7, it took 14.98 seconds for the passengers to get on the empty elevator and the load factor was 1.67 N/s. It took the passengers, whose average number was 23.7, 10.84 seconds to get off the elevator and the unload factor was 2.33 N/s. When an elevator’s capacity is exceeded, the excessive number of people should get off. Time taken for it and the probability of the case were measure in the test. 37% of the times of boarding experienced excessive number of people. As the number of people who gave up boarding increased, the load factor of the ride decreased. When 1 person gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.55 N/s. The case was observed 10 times, which was 12.7% of the total. When 2 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.15 N/s. The case was observed 7 times, which was 8.9% of the total. When 3 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.26 N/s. The case was observed 4 times, which was 5.1% of the total. When 4 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.03 N/s. The case was observed 5 times, which was 6.3% of the total. Getting-on and getting-off time data for people who can walk freely were obtained from the test. In addition, quantitative results were obtained from the relation between the number of people giving up boarding and time taken for getting on. This work was supported by the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST) grant by the Korea government (MSIP) (No. CRC-16-02-KICT).

Keywords: evacuation elevator, super tall buildings, evacuees, delay time

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Authors: Wondmnew Derebe Yohannis

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Farming irrigation plays a crucial role in rural development strategies, impacting both annual household income and livelihood. This research aims to evaluate the factors influencing irrigation participation and assess the impact of small-scale irrigation on rural households' annual income. The study collected data from 287 farmers in the Dahana district of northern Ethiopia. The research investigates the driving forces behind farmers' decisions to adopt small-scale irrigation and its effect on annual income gain. The findings reveal that several factors positively influence the probability of adoption, including access to credit, cultivated land size, livestock holding, extension contact, and the education level of the household head. Conversely, the distance to local markets and water schemes negatively affects the likelihood of adoption. To understand the differences in annual income between farm households that adopted irrigation and those that did not, a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching regression is estimated. This accounts for the heterogeneity in the adoption decision and unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farms. The analysis compares the expected income gain under actual and counterfactual scenarios, considering whether the farm household adopted irrigation or not. The study reveals that the group of farm households that adopted irrigation has distinct characteristics compared to those that did not adopt it. Furthermore, the research demonstrates that the adoption of irrigation practices leads to an increase in annual income. Interestingly, the impact of small-scale irrigation on annual income is greater for the farm households that actually adopted irrigation compared to those in the counterfactual scenario where they did not adopt. Based on the findings, the researcher concludes that small-scale irrigation is a practical solution for meeting household financial needs in the study area. It is recommended that investments in small-scale irrigation continue to further improve the livelihoods of rural farming communities by enhancing annual income gains.

Keywords: small-scale irrigation, income, rural farm households, endogenous switching regression, user, non-user

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Lizinis Cassendra Frederick Dony, Dewi Binti Tajuddin, Jirom Jeremy Frederick Dony, Andrew Nicholas

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Unemployed graduates have become among the world major concerns lately. 70% of Malaysian graduates are jobless. Due to this concerns, this paper aims to identify major factors influencing Sabah minority ethnic favorable in the entrepreneurialism business interest. Hence, extensive introductory entrepreneurship syllabus clusters development beginning from the early childhood, primary, secondary and university students. This may induce interest appeal and to develop focus group of self-employment. The study focus on 7 indicators consist of demographic profiles variable (DP), social norms (SN), attitude (A), self-efficacy (SE) and business management skills (BMS) with reference to university students’ entrepreneurial intention. This study also partially mediates the relationship between product attractiveness (PA) and the minority ethnic entrepreneurialism business interest (MEEBI), by testifying their direct and indirect relationships. Hence, this study provides new perception towards improving the graduates’ characteristic, capabilities to exploit the business opportunities in the market. Furthermore, this paper will assess the relationship with the product attractiveness(PA) as a mediator. The study encompasses on the type of Sabah minority ethnic (ME) and nature of family own business (FOB) background with the 280 samples students in UiTM Sabah and UMS. The descriptive and random sampling method of research which revealed that majority of the respondents agreed that FOB and entrepreneurship education had positively influenced the ethnic students’ involvement in the entrepreneurial process and career development either full-time or part-time basis.

Keywords: Demographic profile (DP), soci, unemployed graduates, Malaysian minority

Procedia PDF Downloads 420

Authors: Alyaa Farouk AbdelFattah Ibrahim, Agnes Monica, Dolores I. Cabansag

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The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is reaching epidemic proportions in many parts of the world causing an increasing public health concern. Cases of Type 2 diabetes are rapidly increasing in the Middle East region. Deprived of lifestyle deviations, a section of the Middle East’s inhabitants will be pretentious by 2035. As all sociocultural factors have created unhealthy lifestyles, which have become part of the social norms within Saudi society, thereby increased the prevalence of sedentary lifestyle and obesity in women living in Saudi Arabia. So, this study aimed to assess the impact of diabetes mellitus on quality of life of female nursing students in King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh. In a crossectional study design, 151 nursing students at King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for health sciences in Riyadh were included in the study. Biosociodemographic questionnaire and Short-Form 36 (SF-36) Health Related Quality of life Survey Arabic version were used for data collection, and all included students were screened for random blood glucose level. Results depicted that among 151 subjects included in the study 17 (11.3%) had diagnosed medical problems, and 29.4% of those participants with medical problems were diabetics. Univariate regression model for the relation between diabetes mellitus and overall percent score of SF-36 health survey domains showed no statistically significant difference between diabetic and non-diabetic subjects 0.990(0.931-1.053). In conclusion, although the diabetes prevalence was high among the study subjects it did not affect their quality of life may be due to age of the study population.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, diabetes prevalence, quality of life, university students' health

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Dylan Shiting Lu, Samson Okello, Anita Chunyan Wei, Daniel Xiao Li

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Mammotome vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (MVB) introduced in 1995 can be used for the removal of benign breast lesions. Whether or not MVB is a better option compared to conventional open surgery is inconclusive. We aim to compare the clinical and patient-related outcomes between MVB and open surgery to remove benign breast tumors less than 5 cm in women. We searched English and Chinese electronic databases with the keywords of Mammotome, clinical trial (CT), vacuum-assisted breast biopsy for studies comparing MVB and open surgery until May 2021. We performed a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis to compare incision size, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, healing time, scar length, patient satisfaction, postoperative hematoma rate, wound infection rate, postoperative ecchymosis, and postoperative sunken skin among those who have Mammotome and those who have surgery. Our analysis included nine randomized CTs with 1155 total patients (575 Mammotome, 580 surgery) and mean age 40.32 years (standard deviation 3.69). We found statistically significant favorable outcomes for Mammotome including blood loss (ml) [standardized mean difference SMD -5.03, 95%CI (-7.30, -2.76)], incision size (cm) [SMD -12.22, 95%CI (-17.40, -7.04)], operation time (min) [SMD -6.66, 95%CI (-9.01, -4.31)], scar length (cm) [SMD -7.06, 95%CI (-10.76, -3.36)], healing time (days) [SMD -6.57, 95%CI (-10.18, -2.95)], and patient satisfaction [relative risk RR 0.38, 95%CI (0.13, 1.08)]. In conclusion, Mammotome vacuum-assisted breast biopsy compared to open surgery shows better clinical and patient-related outcomes. Further studies should be done on whether or not MVB is a better option for benign breast tumors excision.

Keywords: clinical and patient outcomes, open surgery, Mammotome vacuum-assisted breast biopsy, meta-analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L. Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts as a motivating starting point. In this work, the authors extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zₚ, zₙ]. The zₚ component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zₙ component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE) only requires a simple modification of the common normalizing flow framework while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component since zₚ represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of 𝑥-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network based on an unsupervised model of z, such as a Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction

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Authors: Yue Huang, Hongcheng Gan

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The new urbanization pattern has led to a rapid growth in demand for short-distance intercity travel, and the emergence of new travel modes has also increased the variety of intercity travel options. In previous studies on intercity travel mode choice behavior, the impact of functional amenities of travel mode and travelers’ long-term personality characteristics has rarely been considered, and empirical results have typically been calibrated using revealed preference (RP) or stated preference (SP) data. This study designed a questionnaire that combines the RP and SP experiment from the perspective of a trip chain combining inner-city and intercity mobility, with consideration for the actual condition of the Huainan-Hefei traffic corridor. On the basis of RP/SP fusion data, a hybrid choice model considering both random taste heterogeneity and psychological characteristics was established to investigate travelers’ mode choice behavior for traditional train, high-speed rail, intercity bus, private car, and intercity online car-hailing. The findings show that intercity time and cost exert the greatest influence on mode choice, with significant heterogeneity across the population. Although inner-city cost does not demonstrate a significant influence, inner-city time plays an important role. Service attributes of travel mode, such as catering and hygiene services, as well as free wireless network supply, only play a minor role in mode selection. Finally, our study demonstrates that safety-seeking tendency, hedonism, and introversion all have differential and significant effects on intercity travel mode choice.

Keywords: intercity travel mode choice, stated preference survey, hybrid choice model, RP/SP fusion data, psychological latent variable, heterogeneity

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Authors: Oibar Martinez, Clara Oliver

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The Cherenkov Telescope Array Project (CTA) aims to build two different observatories of Cherenkov Telescopes, located in Cerro del Paranal, Chile, and La Palma, Spain. These facilities are used in this paper as a case study to investigate how to apply standard Directives on Electromagnetic Compatibility to astronomical observatories. Cherenkov Telescopes are able to provide valuable information from both Galactic and Extragalactic sources by measuring Cherenkov radiation, which is produced by particles which travel faster than light in the atmosphere. The construction requirements demand compliance with the European Electromagnetic Compatibility Directive. The largest telescopes of these observatories, called Large Scale Telescopes (LSTs), are high precision instruments with advanced photomultipliers able to detect the faint sub-nanosecond blue light pulses produced by Cherenkov Radiation. They have a 23-meter parabolic reflective surface. This surface focuses the radiation on a camera composed of an array of high-speed photosensors which are highly sensitive to the radio spectrum pollution. The camera has a field of view of about 4.5 degrees and has been designed for maximum compactness and lowest weight, cost and power consumption. Each pixel incorporates a photo-sensor able to discriminate single photons and the corresponding readout electronics. The first LST is already commissioned and intends to be operated as a service to Scientific Community. Because of this, it must comply with a series of reliability and functional requirements and must have a Conformité Européen (CE) marking. This demands compliance with Directive 2014/30/EU on electromagnetic compatibility. The main difficulty of accomplishing this goal resides on the fact that Conformité Européen marking setups and procedures were implemented for industrial products, whereas no clear protocols have been defined for scientific installations. In this paper, we aim to give an answer to the question on how the directive should be applied to our installation to guarantee the fulfillment of all the requirements and the proper functioning of the telescope itself. Experts in Optics and Electromagnetism were both needed to make these kinds of decisions and match tests which were designed to be made over the equipment of limited dimensions on large scientific plants. An analysis of the elements and configurations most likely to be affected by external interferences and those that are most likely to cause the maximum disturbances was also performed. Obtaining the Conformité Européen mark requires knowing what the harmonized standards are and how the elaboration of the specific requirement is defined. For this type of large installations, one needs to adapt and develop the tests to be carried out. In addition, throughout this process, certification entities and notified bodies play a key role in preparing and agreeing the required technical documentation. We have focused our attention mostly on the technical aspects of each point. We believe that this contribution will be of interest for other scientists involved in applying industrial quality assurance standards to large scientific plant.

Keywords: CE marking, electromagnetic compatibility, european directive, scientific installations

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Maryam Zarabian, Hector Guzman, Pedro Pereira-Almao, Abraham Fapojuwo

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Dry reforming of methane (DRM) has sparked significant industrial and scientific interest not only as a viable alternative for addressing the environmental concerns of two main contributors of the greenhouse effect, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), but also produces syngas, i.e., a mixture of hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) utilized by a wide range of downstream processes as a feedstock for other chemical productions. In this study, we develop an AI-enable syngas production model to tackle the problem of achieving an equivalent H₂/CO ratio [1:1] with respect to the most efficient conversion. Firstly, the unsupervised density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSAN) algorithm removes outlier data points from the original experimental dataset. Then, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) models employ the error-free dataset to predict the DRM results. DNN models inherently would not be able to obtain accurate predictions without a huge dataset. To cope with this limitation, we employ reusing pre-trained layers’ approaches such as transfer learning and greedy layer-wise pretraining. Compared to the other deep models (i.e., pure deep model and transferred deep model), the greedy layer-wise pre-trained deep model provides the most accurate prediction as well as similar accuracy to the RF model with R² values 1.00, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999 for the total outlet flow, H₂/CO ratio, H₂ yield, CO yield, CH₄ conversion, and CO₂ conversion outputs, respectively.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, dry reforming of methane, artificial neural network, deep learning, machine learning, transfer learning, greedy layer-wise pretraining

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Authors: Farideh Gheitasi, Amir Hossain Jaberansari, Payam Abedini

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The World Health Organization (WHO) Manifesto for Safe Communities states that "All human beings have an equal right to health and safety". The purpose of a safe Community is to minimize the damages threatening people. It seems that not sufficient attention has been given to relate environment and objectives of the safe Community. The reason for that can be assigned to the lack of enough information about environmental parameters and their relation with indices of the safe community like type and effect time of damages resulting from air pollution. Air pollution can be characterized as one of main environmental problems of Tehran. This problem is mostly due to the special geographic and climate situation, high population density and irregular growth in the number of vehicles. This paper is aimed at investigating the necessity of considering environmental factors to obtain a safe community through determining the effects of environmental pollution, particularly air pollution, on 490000 elders (+65) of Tehran. The methodology used in this study was on the basis of Random sampling and social surveying. The number of questionnaires was determined to be 321 through using Cochran method and the questionnaires were filled out by elders during personal interviews. The analysis of obtained results indicated that elders believe the major effects of air pollution include heart and respiratory diseases, obligation to stay at home on polluted days and its associated mental problems. Moreover, it was found that there is direct link between the number of polluted days and mortality frequency of elders. Having an environmental view may have an appreciable influence on the qualitative and quantitative development of activities and also facilitate obtaining the goals of the Safe Communities. In addition to reduce damages caused by pollutions, this view will encourage friends of the environment to cooperate with authorities of the safe community.

Keywords: air pollution, elderly people, environment, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Ekki Kurniawan, Yusuf Nur Jayanto, Erna Sugesti, Efri Suhartono, Agus Ganda Permana, Jaspar Hasudungan, Jangkung Raharjo, Rintis Manfaati

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The purpose of this research is to study the current characteristic of the electrolysis of mineral water to produce hydrogen, alkaline water, and acid water. Alkaline and hydrogen water are believed to have health benefits. Alkaline water containing hydrogen can be an anti-oxidant that captures free radicals, which will increase the immune system. In Indonesia, there are two existing types of alkaline water producing equipment, but the installation is complicated, and the price is relatively expensive. The electrolysis process is slow (6-8 hours) since they are locally made using 311 VDC full bridge rectifier power supply. This paper intends to discuss how to make hydrogen and alkaline water by a simple portable mineral water ionizer. This is an electrolysis device that is easy to carry and able to separate ions of mineral water into acidic and alkaline water. With an electric field, positive ions will be attracted to the cathode, while negative ions will be attracted to the anode. The circuit equivalent can be depicted as RLC transient ciruit. The diode component ensures that the electrolytic current is direct current. Switch S divides the switching times t1, t2, and t3. In the first stage up to t1, the electrolytic current increases exponentially, as does the inductor charging current (L). The molecules in drinking water experience magnetic properties. The direction of the dipole ions, which are random in origin, will regularly flare with the direction of the electric field. In the second stage up to t2, the electrolytic current decreases exponentially, just like the charging current of a capacitor (C). In the 3rd stage, start t3 until it tends to be constant, as is the case with the current flowing through the resistor (R).

Keywords: current electrolysis, mineral water, ions, alkaline and acid waters, inductor, capacitor, resistor

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Authors: Islam Nowisser, Noha Farag, Mohamed El Azizi

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Helicobacter pylori is a highly important human pathogen which inhabits about 50% of the population worldwide. Infection with this bacteria is very hard to treat, with high probability of recurrence. H. pylori causes severe gastric diseases, including peptic ulcer, gastritis, and gastric cancer, which has been linked to chronic inflammation. The infection has been reported to be associated with high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-1β and TNF-α. The aim of the current study is to investigate the molecular mechanisms by which H. pylori activates NLRP3 inflammasome and its contribution to Il-1 β production in an innate cellular model. H. pylori PMSS1 and G27 standard strains, as well as the PMSS1 isogenic mutant strain PMSS1ΔVacA and G27ΔVacA, G27ΔCagA in addition to clinical isolates obtained from biopsy samples from the antrum and corpus mucosa of chronic gastritis patients, were used to establish infection in RAW-264.7 macrophages. The production levels of TNF-α and IL-1β was assessed using ELISA. Since expression of these cytokines is often regulated by the transcription factor complex, nuclear factor-kB (NF-kB), the activation of NF-κB in H. pylori infected cells was also evaluated by luciferase assay. Genomic DNA was extracted from bacterial cultures of H. pylori clinical isolates as well as the standard strains and their corresponding mutants, where they were evaluated for the cagA pathogenicity island and vacA expression. The correlation between these findings and expression of the cagA Pathogenicity Island and vacA in the bacteria was also investigated. The results showed IL-1β, and TNF-α production significantly increased in raw macrophages following H. pylori infection. The cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains induced significant production of IL-1β compared to cagA- and vacA- strains. The activation pattern of NF-κB was correlated in the isolates to their cagA and vacA expression profiles. A similar finding could not be confirmed for TNF-α production. Our study shows the ability of H. pylori to activate NF-kB and induce significant IL-1β production as a possible mechanism for the augmented inflammatory response seen in subjects infected with cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains that would lead to the progression to more severe form of the disease.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, IL-1β, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor KB, TNF-α

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Authors: Tahmidul Islam

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Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique has been widely used for estimating causal effect of treatment in observational studies. One major step of implementing PSM is estimating the propensity score (PS). Logistic regression model with additive linear terms of covariates is most used technique in many studies. Logistics regression model is also used with cubic splines for retaining flexibility in the model. However, choosing the functional form of the logistic regression model has been a question since the effectiveness of PSM depends on how accurately the PS been estimated. In many situations, the linearity assumption of linear logistic regression may not hold and non-linear relation between the logit and the covariates may be appropriate. One can estimate PS using machine learning techniques such as random forest, neural network etc for more accuracy in non-linear situation. In this study, an attempt has been made to compare the efficacy of Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in various linear and non-linear settings and compare its performance with usual logistic regression. GAM is a non-parametric technique where functional form of the covariates can be unspecified and a flexible regression model can be fitted. In this study various simple and complex models have been considered for treatment under several situations (small/large sample, low/high number of treatment units) and examined which method leads to more covariate balance in the matched dataset. It is found that logistic regression model is impressively robust against inclusion quadratic and interaction terms and reduces mean difference in treatment and control set equally efficiently as GAM does. GAM provided no significantly better covariate balance than logistic regression in both simple and complex models. The analysis also suggests that larger proportion of controls than treatment units leads to better balance for both of the methods.

Keywords: accuracy, covariate balances, generalized additive model, logistic regression, non-linearity, propensity score matching

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Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu

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Improvement of health behavior among people with chronic diseases is vital for increasing longevity and enhancing quality of life. This paper researched the causal effects of informal care on the compliance with doctor’s health advices – smoking control, dietetic regulation, weight control and keep exercising – among older people with chronic diseases in China, which is facing the challenge of aging. We addressed the selection bias by using propensity score matching in the estimation process. We used the 2011-2012 national baseline data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Our results showed informal care can help improve health behavior of older people. First, informal care improved the compliance of smoking controls: whether smoke, frequency of smoking, and the time lag between wake up and the first cigarette was all lower for these older people with informal care; Second, for dietetic regulation, older people with informal care had more meals every day than older people without informal care; Third, three variables: BMI, whether gain weight and whether lose weight were used to measure the outcome of weight control. There were no significant difference between group with informal care and that without for BMI and the possibility of losing weight. Older people with informal care had lower possibility of gain weight than that without; Last, for the advice of keeping exercising, informal care increased the probability of walking exercise, however, the difference between groups for moderate and vigorous exercise were not significant. Our results indicate policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account and provide an appropriate policy to meet the demand of informal care. Our birth policy and postponed retirement policy may decrease the informal caregiving hours, so adjustments of these policies are important and urgent to meet the current situation of aged tendency of population. In addition, government could give more support to develop organizations to provide formal care, such as nursing home. We infer that formal care is also useful for health behavior improvements.

Keywords: chronic diseases, compliance, CHARLS, health advice, informal care, older people, propensity score matching

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Authors: Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Muhammad Azeem Tufail

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Inadequate sanitation causes direct costs of treating illnesses and loss of income through reduced productivity. This study estimated the economic cost of health (ECH) due to poor sanitation and factors determining the lack of access to latrine for the rural, backward hamlets and slums of district Faisalabad, Pakistan. Cross sectional data were collected and analyzed for the study. As the population under study was homogenous in nature, it is why a simple random sampling technique was used for the collection of data. Data of 440 households from 4 tehsils were gathered. The ordinary least square (OLS) model was used for health cost analysis, and the Probit regression model was employed for determining the factors responsible for inaccess to toilets. The results of the study showed that condition of toilets, situation of sewerage system, access to adequate sanitation, Cholera, diarrhea and dysentery, Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) maintenance, source of medical treatment can plausibly have a significant connection with the dependent variable. Outcomes of the second model showed that the variables of education, family system, age, and type of dwelling have positive and significant sway with the dependent variable. Variable of age depicted an insignificant association with access to toilets. Variable of monetary expenses would negatively influence the dependent variable. Findings revealed the fact, health risks are often exacerbated by inadequate sanitation, and ultimately, the cost on health also surges. Public and community toilets for youths and social campaigning are suggested for public policy.

Keywords: sanitation, toilet, economic cost of health, water, Punjab

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Authors: Mohd Najib Mansor, Nur Syamilah Md. Noor, Abdul Rahim Anuar, Shazida Jan Mohd Khan, Ahmad Zubir Ibrahim, Badariah Hj Din, Abu Sufian Abu Bakar, Kalsom Kayat, Wan Nurmahfuzah Jannah Wan Mansor

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This study aimed and focused on the behavior of youth entrepreneurs’ especially entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the performance in micro SMEs in Malaysia. Entrepreneurship development calls for support from various quarters, and mostly the need exists to initiate a youth entrepreneurship culture and drive amongst the youth in the society. Although backed up by the government and non-government organizations, micro-entrepreneurs are still facing challenges which greatly delay their progress, growth and consequently their input towards economic advancement. Micro-entrepreneurs are confronted with unique difficulties such as uncertainty, innovation, and evolution. Reviews on the development of entrepreneurial characteristics such as need for achievement, internal locus of control, risk-taking and innovation and have been recognized as highly associated with entrepreneurial behavior. The data in this study was obtained from the Department of Statistics, Malaysia. A random sampling of 830 respondents was distributed to 14 states that involve of micro-entrepreneurs. The study adopted a quantitative approach whereby a set of questionnaire was used to gather data. Multiple regression analysis was chosen as a method of analysis testing. The result of this study is expected to provide insight into the factor affecting entrepreneurial behavior and performance of youth entrepreneurs in micro SMEs. The finding showed that the Malaysian youth entrepreneurs do not have the entrepreneurial self-efficacy within themselves in order to accomplish greater success in their business venture. The establishment of entrepreneurial schools to allow our youth to be exposed to entrepreneurship from an early age and the development of special training focuses on the creation of business network so that the continuous entrepreneurial culture is crafted.

Keywords: youth entrepreneurs, micro entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, entrepreneurial performance

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Authors: Aisha Liaquat Ali, Ghulam Sarwar Gachal, Muhammad Yusuf Sheikh

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The Parrot rose ringed (Psittaculla krameri) commonly known as Tota, belongs to the order ‘Psittaciformes’ and family ‘Psittacidea’. Its sub-species inhabiting Pakistan are Psittaculla borealis. The parrot rose-ringed has been categorized the least concern species, the core aim of the present study is to investigate the ecology and taxonomy of parrot (rose-ringed). Sampling was obtained for the taxonomic identification from various adjoining areas in City Mirpurkhas by non-random method, which was conducted from Feb to June 2017. The different parameters measured with the help of a vernier caliper, foot scale, digital weighing machine. Body parameters were measured via; length of body, length of the wings, length of tail, mass in grams. During present study, a total number of 36 specimens were collected from different localities of City Mirpurkhas (38.2%) were male and (62.7%) were female. Maximum population density of Psittaculla Krameri borealis (52.9%) was collected from Sindh Horticulture Research Station (fruit farm) Mirpurkhas. Minimum no: of Psittaculla krameri borealis (5.5%) collected in urban parks. It was observed that Psittaculla krameri borealis were in dense population during the months of ‘May’ and ‘June’ when the temperature ranged between 20°C and 45°C. A Psittaculla krameri borealis female was found the heaviest in body weight. The species of parrot (rose ringed) captured during study having green plumage, coverts were gray, upper beak, red and lower beak black, shorter tail in female long tail in the male which was similar to the Psittaculla krameri borealis.

Keywords: Mirpurkhas Sindh Pakistan, environmental ecology, parrot, rose-ringed, taxonomy

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Authors: Julia V. F. Cortes, Maria E. V. Amarante, Carolina L. Cerdeira, Roberta B. V. Silva

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Nonmelanoma skin cancer is more commonly diagnosed than all other malignancies combined. In that group, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma stands out for having the highest probability of metastasis and recurrence after treatment, in addition to being the second most prevalent form of skin cancer. Its main risk factors include exposure to carcinogens, such as ultraviolet radiation related to sunlight exposure, smoking, alcohol consumption, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Considering the increased risk of skin cancer in the Brazilian population, caused by the high incidence of solar radiation, and the importance of identifying risk phenotypes for the accomplishment of public health actions, an epidemiological study was conducted in a city with a tropical climate located in southeastern Brazil, aiming to identify the target population and assist in primary and secondary prevention. This study describes the profile of patients with cutaneous squamous cell cancer, correlating the variables, sex, age, and differentiation. The study used as primary data source the results of anatomopathological exams delivered from January 2015 to December 2019 for patients registered at one pathology service, which analyzes the results of biopsies, Thus, 66 patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed. The most affected age group was 60 years or older (78.79%), emphasizing that moderately differentiated (79.49%) and well-differentiated forms (66.67%) are prevalent in this age group, resulting in a difference of 12.82 percentage points between them. In addition, the predominant sex was male (58%), and it was found that half of the women and 65.79% of men had a moderately differentiated type, whereas the well-differentiated type was slightly more frequent in women. It is worth noting that the moderately differentiated subtype has a 59.20% prevalence among all cases. Thus, it was concluded that the most affected age group was 60 years or older and that men were more affected. As for the subtype, the moderately differentiated one, which is recognized for presenting the second-highest risk for metastasis, was prevalent in this study, affecting 6.6% more men and predominating in the elderly.

Keywords: cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, epidemiology, skin cancer, spinal cell cancer

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Authors: Mohammadreza Khanmohammadi, Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari, Soofia Naghdi

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Purpose: Our study aimed to validate single item presenteeism question (SIPQ) into the Persian language for patients with low back pain. Background information: low back pain is a common health problem, and it is one of the most prevalent disorder in working people. There are the different subjective way to evaluate the effect of back pain on work productivity that one of them is by implementing single item presenteeism question. This question has not been validated into the Persian language. Method: Patients were asked to answer SIPQ and pain from 0 to 10 according to numerical rating scale (NRS). The functional rating index was administrated to evaluate construct validity. For test-retest reliability, almost 50 patients re-completed the Persian SIPQ. The construct validity of SIPQ was assessed by analyzing Spearman rank correlation between this question and the Persian version of Functional rating index questionnaire. To analyze test-retest reliability, we assessed intraclass correlation coefficient (agreement) (ICC agreement) (two-way random effects model, single measure). Results: The SIPQ score of two groups of patients (84 males, 16 females, mean age ±SD: 33.85±11.16 years, range: 19-67 years) and healthy subjects (48 male, 2 female ones, mean age ±SD: 24.24 ±8.07 years) was statistically significant. (Mann-Whitney U =198.00, P<.001). The Spearman correlation of data showed that there is a significant correlation between Persian SIPQ score and Persian FRI band (r= .559, P<.001). The ICC was .62. So, the analysis indicated good, test-retest reliability. Conclusion: This study showed that Persian version of SIPQ is reliable and valid when applied to back pain patients.

Keywords: cross cultural adaptation, economic burden, low back pain, Persian language, translation

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Authors: Mehran Nasiri, Ardeshir Poornemat

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The aim of this study was to investigate the current and ideal situations of the process of talent identification in Iranian football from the point of view of Iranian instructors of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). This research was a descriptive-analytical study; in data collection phase a questionnaire was used, whose face validity was confirmed by experts of Physical Education and Sports Science. The reliability of questionnaire was estimated through the use of Cronbach's alpha method (0.91). This study involved 122 participants of Iranian instructors of the AFC who were selected based on stratified random sampling method. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the variables and inferential statistics (Chi-square) were used to test the hypotheses of the study at significant level (p ≤ 0.05). The results of Chi-square test related to the point of view of Iranian instructors of the AFC showed that the grass-roots scientific method was the best way to identify football players (0.001), less than 10 years old were the best ages for talent identification (0.001), the Football Federation was revealed to be the most important organization in talent identification (0.002), clubs were shown to be the most important institution in developing talents (0.001), trained scouts of Football Federation were demonstrated to be the best and most appropriate group for talent identification (0.001), and being referred by the football academy coaches was shown to be the best way to attract talented football players in Iran (0.001). It was also found that there was a huge difference between the current and ideal situation of the process of talent identification in Iranian football from the point of view of Iranian instructors of the AFC. Hence, it is recommended that the policy makers of talent identification for Iranian football provide a comprehensive, clear and systematic model of talent identification and development processes for the clubs and football teams, so that the talent identification process helps to nurture football talents more efficiently.

Keywords: current situation, talent finding, ideal situation, instructors (AFC)

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Authors: Vijay Marisetty, Poonam Singh

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Research on the effect of director's network connections on investor welfare is inconclusive. Some studies suggest that directors' connections are beneficial, in terms of, improving earnings information, firms valuation for new investors. On the other hand, adverse effects of directorial networks are also reported, in terms of higher earnings management, options back dating fraud, reduction in firm performance, lower board monitoring. From regulatory perspective, the role of directorial networks on corporate welfare is crucial. Cognizant of the possible ill effects associated with directorial networks, large investors, for better representation on the boards, are building their own database of prospective directors who are highly qualified, however, sourced from outside the highly connected directorial labor market. For instance, following Dodd-Frank Reform Act, California Public Employees' Retirement Systems (CalPERs) has initiated a database for registering aspiring and highly qualified directors to nominate them for board seats (proxy access). Our paper stems from this background and tries to explore the chances of outside directors getting directorships who lack established network connections. The paper is able to identify such aspiring directors' information by accessing a unique Indian data sourced from an online portal that aims to match the supply of registered aspirants with the growing demand for outside directors in India. The online portal's tie-up with stock exchanges ensures firms to access the new pool of directors. Such direct access to the background details of aspiring directors over a period of 10 years, allows us to examine the chances of aspiring directors without corporate network, to enter directorial network. Using this resume data of 16105 aspiring corporate directors in India, who have no prior board experience in the directorial labor market, the paper analyses the entry dynamics in corporate directors' labor market. The database also allows us to investigate the value of corporate network by comparing non-network new entrants with incumbent networked directors. The study develops measures of network centrality and network degree based on merit, i.e. network of individuals belonging to elite educational institutions, like Indian Institute of Management (IIM) or Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) and based on job or company, i.e. network of individuals serving in the same company. The paper then measures the impact of these networks on the appointment of first time directors and subsequent appointment of directors. The paper reports the following main results: 1. The likelihood of becoming a corporate director, without corporate network strength, is only 1 out 100 aspirants. This is inspite of comparable educational background and similar duration of corporate experience; 2. Aspiring non-network directors' elite educational ties help them to secure directorships. However, for post-board appointments, their newly acquired corporate network strength overtakes as their main determinant for subsequent board appointments and compensation. The results thus highlight the limitations in increasing board diversity.

Keywords: aspiring corporate directors, board diversity, director labor market, director networks

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Authors: Felix Oromena Egara, Moeketsi Mosia

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The study aimed to evaluate the impact of blended learning on mathematics retention among secondary school students. Conducted in the Isoko North Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria, the research involved 1,235 senior class one (SS 1) students. Employing a non-equivalent control group pre-test-post-test quasi-experimental design, a sample of 70 students was selected from two secondary schools with ICT facilities through purposive sampling. Random allocation of students into experimental and control groups was achieved through balloting within each selected school. The investigation included three assessment points: pre-Mathematics Achievement Test (MAT), post-MAT, and post-post-MAT (retention), administered systematically by the researchers. Data collection utilized the established MAT instrument, which demonstrated a high reliability score of 0.86. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 28, with mean and standard deviation addressing study questions and analysis of covariance scrutinizing hypotheses at a significance level of .05. Results revealed significantly greater improvements in mathematics retention scores among students exposed to blended learning compared to those instructed through conventional methods. Moreover, noticeable differences in mean retention scores were observed, with male students in the blended learning group exhibiting notably higher performance. Based on these findings, recommendations were made, advocating for mathematics educators to integrate blended learning, particularly in geometry teaching, to enhance students’ retention of mathematical concepts.

Keywords: blended learning, flipped classroom model, secondary school students, station rotation model

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Authors: Mehrdad Hosseinishakib, Mozhgan Chakani, Gholamreza Babaei

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This study aims to investigate the relationship between the bilateral communication channels, communication technologies with effective communications and communication technologies, employee participation in motivated decision-making of employees using the EFQM excellence model in Education Organization of Area 4 in Karaj. This research is an applied research in terms of the purpose and is a descriptive survey research in terms of nature and method and assesses the current situation using field studies. The statistical population consists of all employees and managers of Education Organization of Area 4 in Karaj including 5442 persons and random sampling was used and sample size is 359 using Cochran formula. Measurement tool is a researcher-made questionnaire with 20 questions including two categories of expertise and general questions. The first category includes general questions about respondents' personal characteristics such as gender and level of education, work experience and courses of study. The second category includes expertise questions of the questionnaire that have been designed to test research hypotheses that its reliability was approved by Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.916 and its validity was approved according to the vies of teachers and some senior managers of Education Organization of Area 4 in Karaj. The results of the analysis of the findings show that there is a significant relationship between mutual communication channels, communication technologies with effective communication between employees and management. There is also a significant relationship between communication technologies and employee motivation and employee participation in their motivated decision-making in Education Organization of Area 4 in Karaj.

Keywords: communication channels, effective communication, EFQM model, ANOVA

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Authors: Madhur Verma, Meena Rajput, Kamal Kishore

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Background: The general view that obesity is a problem of prosperous Western countries has been repealed with substantial evidence showing that middle-income countries like India are now at the heart of a fat explosion. Neck circumference has evolved as a promising index to measure obesity, because of the convenience of its use, even in culture sensitive population. Objectives: To determine whether neck circumference (NC) was associated with overweight and obesity and contributed to the prediction like other classical anthropometric indices. Methodology: Cross-sectional study consisting of 1080 adults (> 19 years) selected through Multi-stage random sampling between August 2013 and September 2014 using the pretested semi-structured questionnaire. After recruitment, the demographic and anthropometric parameters [BMI, Waist & Hip Circumference (WC, HC), Waist to hip ratio (WHR), waist to height ratio (WHtR), body fat percentage (BF %), neck circumference (NC)] were recorded & calculated as per standard procedures. Analysis was done using appropriate statistical tests. (SPSS, version 21.) Results: Mean age of study participants was 44.55+15.65 years. Overall prevalence of overweight & obesity as per modified criteria for Asian Indians (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2) was 49.62% (Females-51.48%; Males-47.77%). Also, number of participants having high WHR, WHtR, BF%, WC & NC was 827(76.57%), 530(49.07%), 513(47.5%), 537(49.72%) & 376(34.81%) respectively. Variation of NC, BMI & BF% with age was non- significant. In both the genders, as per the Pearson’s correlational analysis, neck circumference was positively correlated with BMI (men, r=0.670 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.564 {p < 0.05}), BF% (men, r=0.407 {p < 0.05}; women, r= 0.283 {p < 0.05}), WC (men, r=0.598{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.615 {p < 0.05}), HC (men, r=0.512{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.523{p < 0.05}), WHR (men, r= 0.380{p > 0.05}; women, r=0.022{p > 0.05}) & WHtR (men, r=0.318 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.396{p < 0.05}). On ROC analysis, NC showed good discriminatory power to identify obesity with AUC (AUC for males: 0.822 & females: 0.873; p- value < 0.001) with maximum sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off value of 36.55 cms for males & 34.05cms for females. Conclusion: NC has fair validity as a community-based screener for overweight and obese individuals in the study context and has also correlated well with other classical indices.

Keywords: neck circumference, obesity, anthropometric indices, body fat percentage

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