Search results for: joint transform correlation
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 6300

Search results for: joint transform correlation

3600 Interpersonal Body-Synchronization in Young Children When Watching Video Together

Authors: Saeko Takahashi, Kazuo Hiraki

Abstract:

Is it more fun to watch videos together than watching alone? Previous studies showed that synchronizing with others enhances subsequent prosocial behavior and affiliation, and conversely, prosocial individuals tend to coordinate with a partner to a greater extent. However, compared to adults, less is known about interpersonal coordination of young children in real-life situations because most studies have focused on children’s particular movement using specific tools or tasks in a laboratory setting. It has also been unclear if prosociality of young children affect the extent of interpersonal coordination within dyads. The present study examined data from motion capture of five body parts of 4-year-old dyads watching the same stimuli together or alone. A questionnaire survey including participants’ prosocial trait was also conducted. The wavelet coherence of each body parts within dyads was calculated as a measure of the extent of interpersonal coordination. Results showed that the dyads became significantly more coordinated in a social situation compared to a non-social situation. Moreover, dyads with averagely higher prosociality were more coordinated. These results shed some light on the development of interpersonal coordination in terms of social ability in young children. This study also offers a useful method for a study of spontaneous coordination in young children and infants without instructions or verbal responses.

Keywords: child development, interpersonal coordination, prosociality, synchrony, wavelet transform

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3599 Peculiarities of the Clinical Course of the Osteoarthritis in Shift-Workers: Analysis of Clinical Data and Questionnaries

Authors: Oksana Mykytyuk

Abstract:

Chronic desynchronosis is an important factor of progression of osteoarthritis in shift workers. 80 patients with primary osteoarthritis (female:male ratio = 3:1, average age: 57.6 years, average disease duration: 6.4 years, radiological stage: II-III) were examined, 42% reported systematic night shift-work for more than two years. Full clinical examination was performed, all patients filled in SF-36, WOMAC questonnaries, marked visual analog scales for estimation of pain intensity and general well-being. Patients who had been exposed to night work had significantly worse clinical course of osteoarthritis marked by more (27.5%, p < 0.05) extensive pain syndrome, especially at night hours, (10.00 pm-2.00 am period) and estimated life quality as poorer comparing those working at day time. Osteoarthritis initiation occurred at earlier age in them comparing those who worked in non-shifted regimen. They showed a trend to generalized affliction of bigger quantity of joint groups, higher frequency of synovitis as well. Shift-workers administered higher doses of non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and estimated their effect as lower (39.6% average daily relief vs 62.5% in non-shift workers after 10 days of regular application of therapy). Frequency of chronic NSAID-induced gastropathy was 25% higher among night-workers. Shift-workers are predisposed to worse course of osteoarthritis with marked clinical symptoms, requiring higher doses on NSAIDs and with inclination towards bigger frequency of complication. That should be kept in mind while developing individual treatment and secondary prophylaxis strategy.

Keywords: desynchronosis, osteoarthritis, questionnaries, shift-work

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
3598 Characterization of Waste Thermocol Modified Bitumen by Spectroscopy, Microscopic Technique, and Dynamic Shear Rheometer

Authors: Supriya Mahida, Sangita, Yogesh U. Shah, Shanta Kumar

Abstract:

The global production of thermocol increasing day by day, due to vast applications of the use of thermocole in many sectors. Thermocol being non-biodegradable and more toxic than plastic leads towards a number of problems like its management into value-added products, environmental damage and landfill problems due to weight to volume ratio. Utilization of waste thermocol for modification of bitumen binders resulted in waste thermocol modified bitumen (WTMB) used in road construction and maintenance technology. Modification of bituminous mixes through incorporating thermocol into bituminous mixes through a dry process is one of the new options besides recycling process which consumes lots of waste thermocol. This process leads towards waste management and remedies against thermocol waste disposal. The present challenge is to dispose the thermocol waste under different forms in road infrastructure, either through the dry process or wet process to be developed in future. This paper focuses on the use of thermocol wastes which is mixed with VG 10 bitumen in proportions of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, and 2% by weight of bitumen. The physical properties of neat bitumen are evaluated and compared with modified VG 10 bitumen having thermocol. Empirical characterization like penetration, softening, and viscosity of bitumen has been carried out. Thermocol and waste thermocol modified bitumen (WTMB) were further analyzed by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), and Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR).

Keywords: DSR, FESEM, FT-IR, thermocol wastes

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3597 Assesment of Financial Performance: An Empirical Study of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Companies in India

Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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3596 Ultraviolet Visible Spectroscopy Analysis on Transformer Oil by Correlating It with Various Oil Parameters

Authors: Rajnish Shrivastava, Y. R. Sood, Priti Pundir, Rahul Srivastava

Abstract:

Power transformer is one of the most important devices that are used in power station. Due to several fault impending upon it or due to ageing, etc its life gets lowered. So, it becomes necessary to have diagnosis of oil for fault analysis. Due to the chemical, electrical, thermal and mechanical stress the insulating material in the power transformer degraded. It is important to regularly assess the condition of oil and the remaining life of the power transformer. In this paper UV-VIS absorption graph area is correlated with moisture content, Flash point, IFT and Density of Transformer oil. Since UV-VIS absorption graph area varies accordingly with the variation in different transformer parameters. So by obtaining the correlation among different oil parameters for oil with respect to UV-VIS absorption area, decay contents of transformer oil can be predicted

Keywords: breakdown voltage (BDV), interfacial Tension (IFT), moisture content, ultra violet-visible rays spectroscopy (UV-VIS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 629
3595 Modeling the Moment of Resistance Generated by an Ore-Grinding Mill

Authors: Marinka Baghdasaryan, Tigran Mnoyan

Abstract:

The pertinence of modeling the moment of resistance generated by the ore-grinding mill is substantiated. Based on the ranking of technological indices obtained in the result of the survey among the specialists of several beneficiating plants, the factors determining the level of the moment of resistance generated by the mill are revealed. A priori diagram of the ranks is obtained in which the factors are arranged in the descending order of the impact degree on the level of the moment. The obtained model of the moment of resistance shows the technological character of the operation modes of the ore-grinding mill and can be used for improving the operation modes of the system motor-mill and preventing the abnormal mode of the drive synchronous motor.

Keywords: model, abnormal mode, mill, correlation, moment of resistance, rotational speed

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3594 Thermal Reduction of Perfect Well Identified Hexagonal Graphene Oxide Nano-Sheets for Super-Capacitor Applications

Authors: A. N. Fouda

Abstract:

A novel well identified hexagonal graphene oxide (GO) nano-sheets were synthesized using modified Hummer method. Low temperature thermal reduction at 350°C in air ambient was performed. After thermal reduction, typical few layers of thermal reduced GO (TRGO) with dimension of few hundreds nanometers were observed using high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). GO has a lot of structure models due to variation of the preparation process. Determining the atomic structure of GO is essential for a better understanding of its fundamental properties and for realization of the future technological applications. Structural characterization was identified by x-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy (FTIR) measurements. A comparison between exper- imental and theoretical IR spectrum were done to confirm the match between experimentally and theoretically proposed GO structure. Partial overlap of the experimental IR spectrum with the theoretical IR was confirmed. The electrochemical properties of TRGO nano-sheets as electrode materials for supercapacitors were investigated by cyclic voltammetry and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements. An enhancement in supercapacitance after reduction was confirmed and the area of the CV curve for the TRGO electrode is larger than those for the GO electrode indicating higher specific capacitance which is promising in super-capacitor applications

Keywords: hexagonal graphene oxide, thermal reduction, cyclic voltammetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 482
3593 M-Number of Aortic Cannulas Applied During Hypothermic Cardiopulmonary Bypass

Authors: Won-Gon Kim

Abstract:

A standardized system to describe the pressure-flow characteristics of a given cannula has recently been proposed and has been termed ‘the M-number’. Using three different sizes of aortic cannulas in 50 pediatric cardiac patients on hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass, we analyzed the correlation between experimentally and clinically derived M-numbers, and found this was positive. Clinical M-numbers were typically 0.35 to 0.55 greater than experimental M-numbers, and correlated inversely with a patient's temperature change; this was most probably due to increased blood viscosity, arising from hypothermia. This inverse relationship was more marked in higher M-number cannulas. The clinical data obtained in this study suggest that experimentally derived M-numbers correlate strongly with clinical performance of the cannula, and that the influence of temperature is significant.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary bypass, M-number, aortic cannula, pressure-flow characteristics

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3592 Developing Community-Based Ecotourism Framework for Sustainability in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia

Authors: Fauziahtion A. G. Samad, Imelda Albert Gisip

Abstract:

Community-Based Ecotourism (CBET) is one of the most significant parts of the sustainability in tourism. To achieve the goal of sustainability, the Framework for Sustainable Community Based Ecotourism (FSCBE) was developed from the experience in setting and implementing Community-Based Ecotourism (CBE) under IMPAK (Community-Based Tourism Development Initiative, Kota Kinabalu City Hall) program. Desa Cinta Kobuni located in Inanam, a sub-district of Kota Kinabalu city was the first project under this program. The goal was to transform the village into a sustainable tourism destination. After five years of the program, there are three tourism destination were established included Homestay Id Kalangadan and Homestay Darau Wetland. They currently are still in the growth stage and now becoming a model for other inspiring villages to emulate. There are three major impacts to the villages, which are 1) the increment of secondary income; 2) the advancement of women’s empowerment; and 3) the enhanced sustainability initiatives of the villagers. The experience in developing the CBET has resulted the Kota Kinabalu City Hall to produce the Framework for Sustainable Community Based Ecotourism (FSCBE) that integrates Sustainable Development Goals and Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria (GSTC) for future CBET development in other villages in the city.

Keywords: community-based ecoturism, sustainability, Sabah, Malaysia

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3591 Corrosion Resistance Performance of Epoxy/Polyamidoamine Coating Due to Incorporation of Nano Aluminium Powder

Authors: Asiful Hossain Seikh, Mohammad Asif Alam, Ubair Abdus Samad, Jabair A. Mohammed, S. M. Al-Zahrani, El-Sayed M. Sherif

Abstract:

In this current investigation, aliphatic amine-cured diglycidyl ether of bisphenol-A (DGEBA) based epoxy coating was mixed with certain weight % hardener polyaminoamide (1:2) and was coated on carbon steel panels with and without 1% nano crystalline Al powder. The corrosion behavior of the coated samples were investigated by exposing them in the salt spray chamber, for 500 hours. According to ASTM-B-117, the bath was kept at 35 °C and 5% NaCl containing mist was sprayed at 1.3 bars pressure. Composition of coatings was confirmed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Electrochemical characterization of the coated samples was also performed using potentiodynamic polarization technique and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) technique. All the experiments were done in 3.5% NaCl solution. The nano Al coated sample shows good corrosion resistance property compared to bare Al sample. In fact after salt spray exposure no pitting or local damage was observed for nano coated sample and the coating gloss was negligibly affected. The surface morphology of coated and corroded samples was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM).

Keywords: epoxy, nano aluminium, potentiodynamic polarization, salt spray, electrochemical impedence spectroscopy

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3590 Relationshiop Between Occupants' Behaviour And Indoor Air Quality In Malaysian Public Hospital Outpatient Department

Authors: Farha Ibrahim, Ely Zarina Samsudin, Ahmad Razali Ishak, Jeyanthini Sathasivam

Abstract:

Introduction: Indoor air quality (IAQ) has recently gained substantial traction as the airborne transmission of infectious respiratory disease has become an increasing public health concern. Public hospital outpatient department (OPD). IAQ warrants special consideration as it is the most visited department in which patients and staff are all directly impacted by poor IAQ. However, there is limited evidence on IAQ in these settings. Moreover, occupants’ behavior like occupant’s movement and operation of door, windows and appliances, have been shown to significantly affect IAQ, yet the influence of these determinants on IAQ in such settings have not been established. Objectives: This study aims to examine IAQ in Malaysian public hospitals OPD and assess its relationships with occupants’ behavior. Methodology: A multicenter cross-sectional study in which stratified random sampling of Johor public hospitals OPD (n=6) according to building age was conducted. IAQ measurements include indoor air temperature, relative humidity (RH), air velocity (AV), carbon dioxide (CO2), total bacterial count (TBC) and total fungal count (TFC). Occupants’ behaviors in Malaysian public hospital OPD are assessed using observation forms, and results were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were performed to characterize all study variables, whereas non-parametric Spearman Rank correlation analysis was used to assess the correlation between IAQ and occupants’ behavior. Results: After adjusting for potential cofounder, the study has suggested that occupants’ movement in new building, like seated quietly, is significantly correlated with AV in new building (r 0.642, p-value 0.010), CO2 in new (r 0.772, p-value <0.001) and old building (r -0.559, p-value 0.020), TBC in new (r 0.747, p-value 0.001) and old building (r -0.559, p-value 0.020), and TFC in new (r 0.777, p-value <0.001) and old building (r -0.485, p-value 0.049). In addition, standing relaxed movement is correlated with indoor air temperature (r 0.823, p-value <0.001) in new building, CO2 (r 0.559, p-value 0.020), TBC (r 0.559, p-value 0.020), and TFC (r -0.485, p-value 0.049) in old building, while walking is correlated with AV in new building (r -0.642, p-value 0.001), CO2 in new (r -0.772, p-value <0.001) and old building (r 0.559, p-value 0.020), TBC in new (r -0.747, p-value 0.001) and old building (r 0.559, p-value 0.020), and TFC in old building (r -0.485, p-value 0.049). The indoor air temperature is significantly correlated with number of doors kept opened (r 0.522, p-value 0.046), frequency of door adjustments (r 0.753, p-value 0.001), number of windows kept opened (r 0.522, p-value 0.046), number of air-conditioned (AC) switched on (r 0.698, p-value 0.004) and frequency of AC adjustment (r 0.753, p-value 0.001) in new hospital OPD building. AV is found to be significantly correlated with number of doors kept opened (r 0.642, p-value 0.01), frequency of door adjustments (r 0.553, p-value 0.032), number of windows kept opened (r 0.642, p-value 0.01), and frequency of AC adjustment, number of fans switched on, and frequency of fans adjustment(all with r 0.553, p-value 0.032) in new building. In old hospital OPD building, the number of doors kept opened is significantly correlated with CO₂, TBC (both r -0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049), frequency of door adjustment is significantly correlated with CO₂, TBC (both r-0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049), number of windows kept opened is significantly correlated with CO₂, TBC (both r 0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r 0.495, p-value 0.049), frequency of window adjustment is significantly correlated with CO₂,TBC (both r -0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049), number of AC switched on is significantly correlated with CO₂, TBC (both r -0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049),, frequency of AC adjustment is significantly correlated with CO2 (r 0.559, p-value 0.020), TBC (0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049), number of fans switched on is significantly correlated with CO2, TBC (both r 0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r 0.495, p-value 0.049), and frequency of fans adjustment is significantly correlated with CO2, TBC (both r -0.559, p-value 0.020) and TFC (r -0.495, p-value 0.049). Conclusion: This study provided evidence on IAQ parameters in Malaysian public hospitals OPD and significant factors that may be effective targets of prospective intervention, thus enabling stakeholders to develop appropriate policies and programs to mitigate IAQ issues in Malaysian public hospitals OPD.

Keywords: outpatient department, iaq, occupants practice, public hospital

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3589 Carbon-Nanodots Modified Glassy Carbon Electrode for the Electroanalysis of Selenium in Water

Authors: Azeez O. Idris, Benjamin O. Orimolade, Potlako J. Mafa, Alex T. Kuvarega, Usisipho Feleni, Bhekie B. Mamba

Abstract:

We report a simple and cheaper method for the electrochemical detection of Se(IV) using carbon nanodots (CNDTs) prepared from oat. The carbon nanodots were synthesised by green and facile approach and characterised using scanning electron microscopy, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and Raman spectroscopy. The CNDT was used to fabricate an electrochemical sensor for the quantification of Se(IV) in water. The modification of glassy carbon electrode (GCE) with carbon nanodots led to an increase in the electroactive surface area of the electrode, which enhances the redox current peak of [Fe(CN)₆]₃₋/₄‒ in comparison to the bare GCE. Using the square wave voltammetry, the detection limit and quantification limit of 0.05 and 0.167 ppb were obtained under the optimised parameters using deposition potential of -200 mV, 0.1 M HNO₃ electrolyte, electrodeposition time of 60 s, and pH 1. The results further revealed that the GCE-CNDT was not susceptible to many interfering cations except Cu(II) and Pb(II), and Fe(II). The sensor fabrication involves a one-step electrode modification and was used to detect Se(IV) in a real water sample, and the result obtained is in agreement with the inductively coupled plasma technique. Overall, the electrode offers a cheap, fast, and sensitive way of detecting selenium in environmental matrices.

Keywords: carbon nanodots, square wave voltammetry, nanomaterials, selenium, sensor

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3588 The Relationship between Anthropometric Obesity Indices and Insulin in Children with Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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The number of indices developed for the evaluation of obesity both in adults and pediatric population is ever increasing. These indices are also used in cases with metabolic syndrome (MetS), mostly the ultimate form of morbid obesity. Aside from anthropometric measurements, formulas constituted using these parameters also find clinical use. These formulas can be listed as two groups; being weight-dependent and –independent. Some are extremely sophisticated equations and their clinical utility is questionable in routine clinical practice. The aim of this study is to compare presently available obesity indices and find the most practical one. Their associations with MetS components were also investigated to determine their capacities in differential diagnosis of morbid obesity with and without MetS. Children with normal body mass index (N-BMI) and morbid obesity were recruited for this study. Three groups were constituted. Age- and sex- dependent BMI percentiles for morbid obese (MO) children were above 99 according to World Health Organization tables. Of them, those with MetS findings were evaluated as MetS group. Children, whose values were between 85 and 15 were included in N-BMI group. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Institution. Parents filled out informed consent forms to participate in the study. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure values were recorded. Body mass index, hip index (HI), conicity index (CI), triponderal mass index (TPMI), body adiposity index (BAI), body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI), abdominal volume index (AVI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist circumference+hip circumference/2 ((WC+HC)/2) were the formulas examined within the scope of this study. Routine biochemical tests including fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) were performed. Statistical package program SPSS was used for the evaluation of study data. p<0.05 was accepted as the statistical significance degree. Hip index did not differ among the groups. A statistically significant difference was noted between N-BMI and MetS groups in terms of ABSI. All the other indices were capable of making discrimination between N-BMI-MO, N-BMI- MetS and MO-MetS groups. No correlation was found between FBG and any obesity indices in any groups. The same was true for INS in N-BMI group. Insulin was correlated with BAI, TPMI, CI, BRI, AVI and (WC+HC)/2 in MO group without MetS findings. In MetS group, the only index, which was correlated with INS was (WC+HC)/2. These findings have pointed out that complicated formulas may not be required for the evaluation of the alterations among N-BMI and various obesity groups including MetS. The simple easily computable weight-independent index, (WC+HC)/2, was unique, because it was the only index, which exhibits a valuable association with INS in MetS group. It did not exhibit any correlation with other obesity indices showing associations with INS in MO group. It was concluded that (WC+HC)/2 was pretty valuable practicable index for the discrimination of MO children with and without MetS findings.

Keywords: children, insulin, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices

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3587 High Speed Rail vs. Other Factors Affecting the Tourism Market in Italy

Authors: F. Pagliara, F. Mauriello

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the increase of accessibility brought by high speed rail (HSR) systems and the tourism market in Italy. The impacts of HSR projects on tourism can be quantified in different ways. In this manuscript, an empirical analysis has been carried out with the aid of a dataset containing information both on tourism and transport for 99 Italian provinces during the 2006-2016 period. Panel data regression models have been considered, since they allow modelling a wide variety of correlation patterns. Results show that HSR has an impact on the choice of a given destination for Italian tourists while the presence of a second level hub mainly affects foreign tourists. Attraction variables are also significant for both categories and the variables concerning security, such as number of crimes registered in a given destination, have a negative impact on the choice of a destination.

Keywords: tourists, overnights, high speed rail, attractions, security

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3586 Optimization Principles of Eddy Current Separator for Mixtures with Different Particle Sizes

Authors: Cao Bin, Yuan Yi, Wang Qiang, Amor Abdelkader, Ali Reza Kamali, Diogo Montalvão

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The study of the electrodynamic behavior of non-ferrous particles in time-varying magnetic fields is a promising area of research with wide applications, including recycling of non-ferrous metals, mechanical transmission, and space debris. The key technology for recovering non-ferrous metals is eddy current separation (ECS), which utilizes the eddy current force and torque to separate non-ferrous metals. ECS has several advantages, such as low energy consumption, large processing capacity, and no secondary pollution, making it suitable for processing various mixtures like electronic scrap, auto shredder residue, aluminum scrap, and incineration bottom ash. Improving the separation efficiency of mixtures with different particle sizes in ECS can create significant social and economic benefits. Our previous study investigated the influence of particle size on separation efficiency by combining numerical simulations and separation experiments. Pearson correlation analysis found a strong correlation between the eddy current force in simulations and the repulsion distance in experiments, which confirmed the effectiveness of our simulation model. The interaction effects between particle size and material type, rotational speed, and magnetic pole arrangement were examined. It offer valuable insights for the design and optimization of eddy current separators. The underlying mechanism behind the effect of particle size on separation efficiency was discovered by analyzing eddy current and field gradient. The results showed that the magnitude and distribution heterogeneity of eddy current and magnetic field gradient increased with particle size in eddy current separation. Based on this, we further found that increasing the curvature of magnetic field lines within particles could also increase the eddy current force, providing a optimized method to improving the separation efficiency of fine particles. By combining the results of the studies, a more systematic and comprehensive set of optimization guidelines can be proposed for mixtures with different particle size ranges. The separation efficiency of fine particles could be improved by increasing the rotational speed, curvature of magnetic field lines, and electrical conductivity/density of materials, as well as utilizing the eddy current torque. When designing an ECS, the particle size range of the target mixture should be investigated in advance, and the suitable parameters for separating the mixture can be fixed accordingly. In summary, these results can guide the design and optimization of ECS, and also expand the application areas for ECS.

Keywords: eddy current separation, particle size, numerical simulation, metal recovery

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3585 The Value of Serum Procalcitonin in Patients with Acute Musculoskeletal Infections

Authors: Mustafa Al-Yaseen, Haider Mohammed Mahdi, Haider Ali Al–Zahid, Nazar S. Haddad

Abstract:

Background: Early diagnosis of musculoskeletal infections is of vital importance to avoid devastating complications. There is no single laboratory marker which is sensitive and specific in diagnosing these infections accurately. White blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and C-reactive protein are not specific as they can also be elevated in conditions other than bacterial infections. Materials Culture and sensitivity is not a true gold standard due to its varied positivity rates. Serum Procalcitonin is one of the new laboratory markers for pyogenic infections. The objective of this study is to assess the value of PCT in the diagnosis of soft tissue, bone, and joint infections. Patients and Methods: Patients of all age groups (seventy-four patients) with a diagnosis of musculoskeletal infection are prospectively included in this study. All patients were subjected to White blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and serum Procalcitonin measurements. A healthy non infected outpatient group (twenty-two patients) taken as a control group and underwent the same evaluation steps as the study group. Results: The study group showed mean Procalcitonin levels of 1.3 ng/ml. Procalcitonin, at 0.5 ng/ml, was (42.6%) sensitive and (95.5%) specific in diagnosing of musculoskeletal infections with (positive predictive value of 87.5% and negative predictive value of 48.3%) and (positive likelihood ratio of 9.3 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.6). Conclusion: Serum Procalcitonin, at a cut – off of 0.5 ng/ml, is a specific but not sensitive marker in the diagnosis of musculoskeletal infections, and it can be used effectively to rule in the diagnosis of infection but not to rule out it.

Keywords: procalcitonin, infection, labratory markers, musculoskeletal

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3584 Antioxidant Activity, Total Phenolic Contents, and Functional Group Identification of Leaf Extracts among Lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus) Accessions

Authors: Oyenike A. Adeyemo, Elizabeth Osibote, Adeyemi Adedugba, Olatunde A. Bhadmus, Adeoluwa A. Adeoshun, Mariam O. Allison

Abstract:

Lemongrass leaves are widely used for tea and the treatment of malaria. The present study used Soxhlet extraction with aqueous ethanol (v/v). Fresh and dried leaves of selected ten lemongrasses (Cymbopogon citratus) accessions from different geographical regions in Nigeria were examined for total phenolic contents, and antioxidant activities. Aqueous methanol extraction was carried out and further partitioned into hexane, ethyl acetate, and butanol to obtain fractions according to their polarities. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) was carried out to identify the functional groups that may be present. Among the ten accessions, the leaf extracts at five different concentrations exhibited increasing antioxidant activities using DPPH (2,2-diphenyl- 1- picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging test, stronger activities for dried leaves (71.15 ± 0.14 - 89.79 ± 0.16µg/ml) than fresh leaves (71.65 ± 0.45 -81.94 ± 0.84 µg/ml) at 100 µg/ml of sample extract. The total phenolic contents of dried leaf extracts revealed higher amounts in all lines ranging from 19.57±0.57 to 43.17±0.67mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g DW when compared with fresh leaf extracts, where the values ranged from 9.68 ± 2.20 to 28.5 ± 3.90 mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g fresh weight except for two lines which showed greater total phenolic contents than in the dried leaves. High total phenolic content may help contribute to the overall high antioxidant activity of the plant. FTIR identified the presence of major active functional groups including alcohol, ester, amide, alkanes, alkenes, carboxylic acid, ketones, and aldehyde in four partitioning solvents (n-hexane, ethyl acetate, butanol, and methanol) leaf extracts of lemongrass samples.Lemongrass leaves are widely used for tea and the treatment of malaria. The present study used Soxhlet extraction with aqueous ethanol (v/v). Fresh and dried leaves of selected ten lemongrasses (Cymbopogon citratus) accessions from different geographical regions in Nigeria were examined for total phenolic contents, and antioxidant activities. Aqueous methanol extraction was carried out and further partitioned into hexane, ethyl acetate, and butanol to obtain fractions according to their polarities. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) was carried out to identify the functional groups that may be present. Among the ten accessions, the leaf extracts at five different concentrations exhibited increasing antioxidant activities using DPPH (2,2-diphenyl- 1- picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging test, stronger activities for dried leaves (71.15 ± 0.14 - 89.79 ± 0.16µg/ml) than fresh leaves (71.65 ± 0.45 -81.94 ± 0.84 µg/ml) at 100 µg/ml of sample extract. The total phenolic contents of dried leaf extracts revealed higher amounts in all lines ranging from 19.57±0.57 to 43.17±0.67mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g DW when compared with fresh leaf extracts, where the values ranged from 9.68 ± 2.20 to 28.5 ± 3.90 mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g fresh weight except for two lines which showed greater total phenolic contents than in the dried leaves. High total phenolic content may help contribute to the overall high antioxidant activity of the plant. FTIR identified the presence of major active functional groups including alcohol, ester, amide, alkanes, alkenes, carboxylic acid, ketones, and aldehyde in four partitioning solvents (n-hexane, ethyl acetate, butanol, and methanol) leaf extracts of lemongrass samples.

Keywords: antioxidant acivity, phenolic content, natural product, FTIR

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3583 Leveraging Hyperledger Iroha for the Issuance and Verification of Higher-Education Certificates

Authors: Vasiliki Vlachou, Christos Kontzinos, Ourania Markaki, Panagiotis Kokkinakos, Vagelis Karakolis, John Psarras

Abstract:

Higher Education is resisting the pull of technology, especially as this concerns the issuance and verification of degrees and certificates. It is widely known that education certificates are largely produced in paper form making them vulnerable to damage while holders of such certificates are dependent on the universities and other issuing organisations. QualiChain is an EU Horizon 2020 (H2020) research project aiming to transform and revolutionise the domain of public education and its ties with the job market by leveraging blockchain, analytics and decision support to develop a platform for the verification and sharing of education certificates. Blockchain plays an integral part in the QualiChain solution in providing a trustworthy environment to store, share and manage such accreditations. Under the context of this paper, three prominent blockchain platforms (Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric, Hyperledger Iroha) were considered as a means of experimentation for creating a system with the basic functionalities that will be needed for trustworthy degree verification. The methodology and respective system developed and presented in this paper used Hyperledger Iroha and proved that this specific platform can be used to easily develop decentralize applications. Future papers will attempt to further experiment with other blockchain platforms and assess which has the best potential.

Keywords: blockchain, degree verification, higher education certificates, Hyperledger Iroha

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
3582 Education For Social Justice: A Comparative Study of University Teachers' Conceptions and Practice

Authors: Digby Warren, Jiri Kropac

Abstract:

This comparative study seeks to develop a deeper understanding of what is meant by “education for social justice” (ESJ) - an aspiration articulated by universities, though often without much definition. The research methodology involved thematic analysis of data from in-depth interviews with academics (voluntary participants) in different disciplines and institutions in the UK, Czech Republic and other EU countries. The interviews explored lecturers’ conceptions of ESJ, their practice of it, and associated challenges and enabling factors. Main findings are that ESJ is construed as provision of equitable and conscientising education opportunities that run across the whole higher education (HE) journey, from widening access to HE to stimulating critical learning and awareness that can empower graduates to transform their lives and societies. Teaching practice featured study of topics related to social justice; collaborative and creative learning activities, and assignments offering choice and connection to students’ realities. Student responses could be mixed, occasionally resistant, but mostly positive in terms of gaining increased confidence and awareness of equality and social responsibility. Influences at the macro, meso and mico level could support or limit scope for ESJ. Overall, the study highlights the strong, values-based commitment of HE teachers to facilitating student learning engagement, wellbeing and development towards building a better world.

Keywords: higher education, social justice, inclusivity, diversity

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3581 Concerns, Attitudes and Perceptions of Mothers about Child Vulnerability for Sexual Abuse

Authors: Rukhsana Kausar, Khadija Rasheed

Abstract:

This research explored general concerns, attitudes and perceptions of Pakistani mothers about their children’s vulnerability for sexual abuse and it also examined the effect of education and work status of mothers on their concerns and attitudes about the safety of their children. The sample consisted of 166 mothers comprising of 4 groups i.e. educated-working mothers, uneducated working mothers, educated non-working mothers and uneducated non-working mothers. This research comprised of two studies. Study 1 was carried out to construct two separate scales namely Maternal Concerns and Attitudes Scale for safety of Daughters (MCA-SD) and Maternal Concerns and Attitudes Scale for safety of Sons (MCA-SS) for assessing maternal concerns and attitudes about safety and protection of daughters and sons. These scales were used in study 2 with the objective to explore mothers’ general concerns, attitudes and perceptions of about child vulnerability for sexual abuse. Data were analyzed using two-way analysis of variance and independent-samples t-test. Educated mothers had more sense of responsibility, ensured more safety and provide more information about self-protection to their children as compared to uneducated mothers. Similarly non-working mothers showed more sense of responsibility and provided more information on self-protection to their children as compared to working mothers. Moreover, mothers living in nuclear family system trusted more on their relatives and other people for the protection of their children and ensured more safety of children than those living in joint family system. Findings have very important implications for protecting children from likely sexual abuse.

Keywords: mothers’ concerns, attitudes, perceptions, child vulnerability, child sexual abuse

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3580 Evaluation of the Impact of Pavement Roughness on Vehicle Emissions by HDM-4

Authors: Muhammad Azhar, Arshad Hussain

Abstract:

Vehicular emissions have increased in recent years due to rapid growth in world traffic resulting in an increase in associated problems such as air pollution and climate change, therefore it’s necessary to control vehicle emissions. This study looks at the effect of road maintenance on vehicle emissions. The Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4) was used to find the effect of road maintenance on vehicle emissions. Key data collected were traffic volume and composition, vehicle characteristics, pavement characteristics and climate data of the study area. Two options were analysed using the HDM-4 software; the base case or do nothing while the second is overlay maintenance. The study also showed a strong correlation between average roughness and yearly emission levels in both the alternatives. Finally, the study showed that proper maintenance reduces the roughness and emissions.

Keywords: vehicle emissions, road roughness, IRI, maintenance, HDM-4, CO2

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
3579 Organic Permeation Properties of Hydrophobic Silica Membranes with Different Functional Groups

Authors: Sadao Araki, Daisuke Gondo, Satoshi Imasaka, Hideki Yamamoto

Abstract:

The separation of organic compounds from aqueous solutions is a key technology for recycling valuable organic compounds and for the treatment of wastewater. The wastewater from chemical plants often contains organic compounds such as ethyl acetate (EA), methylethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropyl alcohol (IPA). In this study, we prepared hydrophobic silica membranes by a sol-gel method. We used phenyltrimethoxysilane (PhTMS), ethyltrimethoxysilan (ETMS), Propyltrimethoxysilane (PrTMS), N-butyltrimethoxysilane (BTMS), N-Hexyltrimethoxysilane (HTMS) as silica sources to introduce each functional groups on the membrane surface. Cetyltrimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB) was used as a molecular template to create suitable pore that enable the permeation of organic compounds. These membranes with five different functional groups were characterized by SEM, FT-IR, and permporometry. Thicknesses and pore diameters of silica layer for all membrane were about 1.0 μm and about 1 nm, respectively. In other words, functional groups had an insignificant effect on the membrane thicknesses and the formation of the pore by CTAB. We confirmed the effect of functional groups on the flux and separation factor for ethyl acetate (EA), methyl ethyl ketone, acetone and 1-butanol (1-BtOH) /water mixtures. All membranes showed a high flux for ethyl acetate compared with other compounds. In particular, the hydrophobic silica membrane prepared by using BTMS showed 0.75 kg m-2 h-1 of flux for EA. For all membranes, the fluxes of organic compounds showed the large values in the order corresponding to EA > MEK > acetone > 1-BtOH. On the other hand, carbon chain length of functional groups among ETMS, PrTMS, BTMS, PrTMS and HTMS did not have a major effect on the organic flux. Although we confirmed the relationship between organic fluxes and organic molecular diameters or fugacity of organic compounds, these factors had a low correlation with organic fluxes. It is considered that these factors affect the diffusivity. Generally, permeation through membranes is based on the diffusivity and solubility. Therefore, it is deemed that organic fluxes through these hydrophobic membranes are strongly influenced by solubility. We tried to estimate the organic fluxes by Hansen solubility parameter (HSP). HSP, which is based on the cohesion energy per molar volume and is composed of dispersion forces (δd), intermolecular dipole interactions (δp), and hydrogen-bonding interactions (δh), has recently attracted attention as a means for evaluating the resolution and aggregation behavior. Evaluation of solubility for two substances can be represented by using the Ra [(MPa)1/2] value, meaning the distance of HSPs for both of substances. A smaller Ra value means a higher solubility for each substance. On the other hand, it can be estimated that the substances with large Ra value show low solubility. We established the correlation equation, which was based on Ra, of organic flux at low concentrations of organic compounds and at 295-325 K.

Keywords: hydrophobic, membrane, Hansen solubility parameter, functional group

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3578 Corrosion Inhibition of Brass in Phosphoric Acid Solution by 2-(5-Methyl-2-Nitro-1H-Imidazol-1-Yl) Ethyl Benzoate

Authors: R. Khrifou, M. Galai, R. Touir, M. Ebn Touhami, Y. Ramli

Abstract:

A 2-(5-methyl-2-Nitro-1H-imidazol-1-yl)ethyl benzoate (IMDZ-B) was synthesized and characterized using elemental analyses, NMR, and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) techniques. Its effect on brass corrosion in 1.0 M H₃PO₄ solution was investigated by using electrochemical measurements coupled with X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). The polarization measurements showed that the IMDZ-B acts as a mixed-type inhibitor. Indeed, it is found that the IMDZ-B compound is a very good inhibitor, and its inhibition efficiency increases with concentration to reach a maximum of 99.5 % at 10-³ M. In addition, the obtained electrochemical parameters from impedance indicated that the IMDZ-B molecules act by adsorption on metallic surfaces. This adsorption was found to obey Langmuir’s adsorption isotherm. However, the temperature effect on the performance of IMDZ-B was also studied. It is found that the IMDZ-B takes its performance at high temperatures. In addition, the obtained kinetic and thermodynamic parameters showed that the IMDZ-B molecules act via two adsorption modes, physisorption and chemisorptions, and its process is endothermic and spontaneous. Finally, the XRD and SEM/EDX analyses confirmed the electrochemical obtained results.

Keywords: low concentration, anti-corrosion brass, IMDZ-B product, phosphoric acid solution, electrochemical, SEM\EDAX analysis

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3577 Association of Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor with Iron as well as Vitamin D, Folate and Cobalamin in Pediatric Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

The impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on cognition and functions of the brain is being investigated. Iron deficiency and deficiencies of B9 (folate) as well as B12 (cobalamin) vitamins are best-known nutritional anemias. They are associated with cognitive disorders and learning difficulties. The antidepressant effects of vitamin D are known and the deficiency state affects mental functions negatively. The aim of this study is to investigate possible correlations of MetS with serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), iron, folate, cobalamin and vitamin D in pediatric patients. 30 children, whose age- and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles vary between 85 and 15, 60 morbid obese children with above 99th percentiles constituted the study population. Anthropometric measurements were taken. BMI values were calculated. Age- and sex-dependent BMI percentile values were obtained using the appropriate tables prepared by the World Health Organization (WHO). Obesity classification was performed according to WHO criteria. Those with MetS were evaluated according to MetS criteria. Serum BDNF was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serum folate was analyzed by an immunoassay analyzer. Serum cobalamin concentrations were measured using electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Vitamin D status was determined by the measurement of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol [25-hydroxy vitamin D3, 25(OH)D] using high performance liquid chromatography. Statistical evaluations were performed using SPSS for Windows, version 16. The p values less than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Although statistically insignificant, lower folate and cobalamin values were found in MO children compared to those observed for children with normal BMI. For iron and BDNF values, no alterations were detected among the groups. Significantly decreased vitamin D concentrations were noted in MO children with MetS in comparison with those in children with normal BMI (p ≤ 0.05). The positive correlation observed between iron and BDNF in normal-BMI group was not found in two MO groups. In THE MetS group, the partial correlation among iron, BDNF, folate, cobalamin, vitamin D controlling for waist circumference and BMI was r = -0.501; p ≤ 0.05. None was calculated in MO and normal BMI groups. In conclusion, vitamin D should also be considered during the assessment of pediatric MetS. Waist circumference and BMI should collectively be evaluated during the evaluation of MetS in children. Within this context, BDNF appears to be a key biochemical parameter during the examination of obesity degree in terms of mental functions, cognition and learning capacity. The association observed between iron and BDNF in children with normal BMI was not detected in MO groups possibly due to development of inflammation and other obesity-related pathologies. It was suggested that this finding may contribute to mental function impairments commonly observed among obese children.

Keywords: brain-derived neurotrophic factor, iron, vitamin B9, vitamin B12, vitamin D

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3576 Assessing Functional Structure in European Marine Ecosystems Using a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal Model

Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

Abstract:

In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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3575 Modelling of Hydric Behaviour of Textiles

Authors: A. Marolleau, F. Salaun, D. Dupont, H. Gidik, S. Ducept.

Abstract:

The goal of this study is to analyze the hydric behaviour of textiles which can impact significantly the comfort of the wearer. Indeed, fabrics can be adapted for different climate if hydric and thermal behaviors are known. In this study, fabrics are only submitted to hydric variations. Sorption and desorption isotherms obtained from the dynamic vapour sorption apparatus (DVS) are fitted with the parallel exponential kinetics (PEK), the Hailwood-Horrobin (HH) and the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) models. One of the major finding is the relationship existing between PEK and HH models. During slow and fast processes, the sorption of water molecules on the polymer can be in monolayer and multilayer form. According to the BET model, moisture regain, a physical property of textiles, show a linear correlation with the total amount of water taken in monolayer. This study provides potential information of the end uses of these fabrics according to the selected activity level.

Keywords: comfort, hydric properties, modelling, underwears

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3574 Investigating the Demand of Short-Shelf Life Food Products for SME Wholesalers

Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Alistair Duffy, Ashley Hopwell

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. Current research in this area focused on limited number of factors specific to a single product or a business type. This paper gives an overview of the current literature on the variability factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then extends it by adding new factors and investigating if there is a time lag and possibility of noise in the orders. It also identifies the most important factors using correlation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

Keywords: demand forecasting, deteriorating products, food wholesalers, principal component analysis, variability factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 502
3573 Mechanical Properties of Hybrid Ti6Al4V Part with Wrought Alloy to Powder-Bed Additive Manufactured Interface

Authors: Amnon Shirizly, Ohad Dolev

Abstract:

In recent years, the implementation and use of Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) parts increase. As a result, the demand for bigger parts rises along with the desire to reduce it’s the production cost. Generally, in powder bed Additive Manufacturing technology the part size is limited by the machine build volume. In order to overcome this limitation, the parts can be built in one or more machine operations and mechanically joint or weld them together. An alternative option could be a production of wrought part and built on it the AM structure (mainly to reduce costs). In both cases, the mechanical properties of the interface have to be defined and recognized. In the current study, the authors introduce guidelines on how to examine the interface between wrought alloy and powder-bed AM. The mechanical and metallurgical properties of the Ti6Al4V materials (wrought alloy and powder-bed AM) and their hybrid interface were examined. The mechanical properties gain from tensile test bars in the built direction and fracture toughness samples in various orientations. The hybrid specimens were built onto a wrought Ti6Al4V start-plate. The standard fracture toughness (CT25 samples) and hybrid tensile specimens' were heat treated and milled as a post process to final diminutions. In this Study, the mechanical tensile tests and fracture toughness properties supported by metallurgical observation will be introduced and discussed. It will show that the hybrid approach of utilizing powder bed AM onto wrought material expanding the current limitation of the future manufacturing technology.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, hybrid, fracture-toughness, powder bed

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3572 Fractal-Wavelet Based Techniques for Improving the Artificial Neural Network Models

Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

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3571 Homeless Population Modeling and Trend Prediction Through Identifying Key Factors and Machine Learning

Authors: Shayla He

Abstract:

Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 106