Search results for: tsunami risk and response

Authors: Rasha Shoumar

Abstract:

Background: Since the onset of the Syria crisis in 2011, Jordan has hosted many Syrian refugees, many of which are residing in urban and rural areas. Vulnerability of refugees has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding to their already existing challenge in access to medical services, rendering them vulnerable to the complications of untreated medical conditions and amplifying their risk for severe COVID-19 disease. To improve health outcomes and access to health care services in a COVID-19 context, IOM (The International Organization for Migration) provided health services including awareness raising, direct primary health care through mobile teams and referrals to secondary services were extended to the vulnerable populations of refugees. Method: 6 community health volunteers were trained and deployed to different governorates to provide COVID-19 and non-communicable disease awareness and collect data rated to non-communicable disease and access to medical health services. Primary health care services were extended to 7 governorates through a mobile medical team, providing medical management. The collected Data was reviewed and analyzed. Results: 2150 refugees in rural areas were reached out by community health volunteers, out of which 78 received their medications through the Ministry of Health, 121 received their medications through different non-governmental organizations, 665 patients couldn’t afford buying any medications, 1286 patients were occasionally buying their medications when they were able to afford it. 853 patients received medications and follow up through IOM mobile clinics, the most common conditions were hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, anemia, heart disease, thyroid disease, asthma, seizures, and psychiatric conditions. 709 of these patients had more than 3 of the comorbidities. Multiple cases were referred for secondary and tertiary lifesaving interventions. Conclusion: Non communicable diseases are highly prevalent among refugee population in Jordan, access to medical services have proven to be a challenge in rural areas especially during the COVID-19 era, many of the patients have multiple uncontrolled medical conditions placing them at risk for complications and risk for severe COVID-19 disease. Deployment of mobile clinics to rural areas plays an essential role in managing such medical conditions, thus improving the continuum of health care approach, physical and mental wellbeing of refugees and reducing the risk for severe COVID-19 disease among this group, taking us one step forward toward universal health access.

Keywords: COVID-19, refugees, mobile clinics, primary health care

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Kyle Burke Pfeiffer, Carmella Burdi, Karen Marsh

Abstract:

The evacuation and shelter-in-place planning process employed by most jurisdictions within the United States is not informed by a scientifically-derived framework that is inclusive of the behavioral and policy-related indicators of public compliance with evacuation orders. While a significant body of work exists to define these indicators, the research findings have not been well-integrated nor translated into useable planning factors for public safety officials. Additionally, refinement of the planning factors alone is insufficient to support science-based evacuation planning as the behavioral elements of evacuees—even with consideration of policy-related indicators—must be examined in the context of specific regional transportation and shelter networks. To address this problem, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Argonne National Laboratory developed an agent-based model to support regional analysis of zone-based evacuation in southeastern Georgia. In particular, this model allows public safety officials to analyze the consequences that a range of hazards may have upon a community, assess evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions in the context of specified evacuation and response plans, and predict outcomes based on community compliance with orders and the capacity of the regional (to include extra-jurisdictional) transportation and shelter networks. The intention is to use this model to aid evacuation planning and decision-making. Applications for the model include developing a science-driven risk communication strategy and, ultimately, in the case of evacuation, the shortest possible travel distance and clearance times for evacuees within the regional boundary conditions.

Keywords: agent-based modeling for evacuation, decision-support for evacuation planning, evacuation planning, human behavior in evacuation

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Jenny Fairthorne, Yuka Mori, Helen Leonard

Abstract:

Background: Primary care-givers of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or intellectual disability (ID) have poorer health and quality of life (QoL) than primary care-givers (hereafter referred to as just care-givers) of typically developing children. We aimed to review original research which described factors impacting the health of care-givers of children with ASD or ID and to discuss how these factors might influence care-giver health. Methods: We searched Web of Knowledge, Medline, Scopus and Google Scholar using selections of words from each of three groups. The first comprised terms associated with ASD and ID and included autism, pervasive development disorder, intellectual disability, mental retardation, disability, disabled, Down and Asperger. The second included terms related to health such as depression, physical, mental, psychiatric, psychological and well-being. The third was terms related to care-givers such as mother, parent and care-giver. We included an original paper in our review if it was published between 1st January 1990 and 31st December, 2016, described original research in a peer-reviewed journal and was written in English. Additional criteria were that the research used a study population of 15 persons or more; described a risk or protective factor for the health of care-givers of a child with ASD, ID or a sub-type (such as ASD with ID or Down syndrome). Using previous research, we developed a simple and objective five-level tool to assess the strength of evidence provided by the reviewed papers. Results: We retained 33 papers. Factors impacting primary care-giver health included child behaviour, level of support, socio-economic status (SES) and diagnostic issues. Challenging child behaviour, the most commonly identified risk factor for poorer care-giver health and QoL was reported in ten of the studies. A higher level of support was associated with improved care-giver health and QoL. For example, substantial evidence indicated that family support reduced care-giver burden in families with a child with ASD and that family and neighbourhood support was associated with improved care-giver mental health. Higher socio-economic status (SES) was a protective factor for care-giver health and particularly maternal health. Diagnostic uncertainty and an unclear prognosis are factors which can cause the greatest concern to care-givers of children with ASD and those for whom a cause of their child’s ID has not been identified. We explain how each of these factors might impact caregiver health and how they might act differentially in care-givers of children with different types of ASD or ID (such as Down syndrome and ASD without ID). Conclusion: Care-givers of children with ASD may be more likely to experience many risk factors and less likely to experience the protective factors we identified for poorer mental health. Interventions to reduce risk factors and increase protective factors could pave the way for improved care-giver health. For example, workshops to train care-givers to better manage challenging child behaviours and earlier diagnosis of ASD (and particularly ASD without ID) would seem likely to improve care-giver well-being. Similarly, helping to expand support networks might reduce care-giver burden and stress leading to improved health.

Keywords: autism, caregivers, health, intellectual disability, mothers, review

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

Abstract:

This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Pablo Vidal, Misael Martinez, Carlos Hernandez, Ananta R. Adhikari, Luis Materon, Yuanbing Mao, Karen Lozano

Abstract:

Conjugated polymers are smart materials that show tremendous practical applications in diverse subjects. Polydiacetylenes are conjugated polymers with special optical properties. In response to the environmental changes such as pH and molecular binding, it changes its color. Such an interesting chromic and emissive behavior of polydiacetylenes make them a highly popular polymer in wide areas, including biomedicine such as a biosensor. In this research, we used polyvinyl butyrate as a matrix to fibrillate polydiacetylenes. We initially prepared polyvinyl butyrate/diacetylene matrix using forcespinning technique. They were then polymerized to form polyvinyl butyrate/polydiacetylene (PVB/PDA). These matrices then studied for their bio-sensing response to gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria. The sensing ability of the PVB/PDA biosensor was observed as early as 30 min in the presence of bacteria at 37°C. Now our effort is to decrease this effective temperature to room temperature to make this device applicable in the general daily life. These chromic biosensors will find extensive application not only alert the infection but also find other promising applications such as wearable sensors and diagnostic systems.

Keywords: smart material, conjugated polymers, biosensor, polyvinyl butyrate/polydiacetylene

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: A. M. Khourshid, I. Sabry

Abstract:

Friction Stir Welding (FSW), a solid state joining technique, is widely being used for joining Al alloys for aerospace, marine automotive and many other applications of commercial importance. FSW were carried out using a vertical milling machine on Al 5083 alloy pipe. These pipe sections are relatively small in diameter, 5mm, and relatively thin walled, 2 mm. In this study, 5083 aluminum alloy pipe were welded as similar alloy joints using (FSW) process in order to investigate mechanical and microstructural properties .rotation speed 1400 r.p.m and weld speed 10,40,70 mm/min. In order to investigate the effect of welding speeds on mechanical properties, metallographic and mechanical tests were carried out on the welded areas. Vickers hardness profile and tensile tests of the joints as a metallurgical feasibility of friction stir welding for joining Al 6061 aluminum alloy welding was performed on pipe with different thickness 2, 3 and 4 mm,five rotational speeds (485,710,910,1120 and 1400) rpm and a traverse speed (4, 8 and 10)mm/min was applied. This work focuses on two methods such as artificial neural networks using software (pythia) and response surface methodology (RSM) to predict the tensile strength, the percentage of elongation and hardness of friction stir welded 6061 aluminum alloy. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the analysis of the friction stir welding parameters of 6061 pipe. The tensile strength, the percentage of elongation and hardness of weld joints were predicted by taking the parameters Tool rotation speed, material thickness and travel speed as a function. A comparison was made between measured and predicted data. Response surface methodology (RSM) also developed and the values obtained for the response Tensile strengths, the percentage of elongation and hardness are compared with measured values. The effect of FSW process parameter on mechanical properties of 6061 aluminum alloy has been analyzed in detail.

Keywords: friction stir welding (FSW), al alloys, mechanical properties, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 457

Authors: Matthew Heidman, Susan Dallabrida, Analice Costa

Abstract:

Background:Accuracy of caregiver reported outcomes is essential for infant growth and tolerability study success. Crying/fussiness, stool consistencies, and other gastrointestinal characteristics are important parameters regarding tolerability, and inter-caregiver reporting can see a significant amount of subjectivity and vary greatly within a study, compromising data. This study sought to elucidate how caregiver reported questions related to stool frequency are answered before and after a short amount of training and how training impacts caregivers’ understanding, and how they would answer the question. Methods:A digital survey was issued for 90 daysin the US (n=121) and 30 days in Mexico (n=88), targeting respondents with children ≤4 years of age. Respondents were asked a question in two formats, first without a line of training text and second with a line of training text. The question set was as follows, “If your baby had stool in his/her diaper and you changed the diaper and 10 min later there was more stool in the diaper, how many stools would you report this as?” followed by the same question beginning with “If you were given the instruction that IF there are at least 5 minutes in between stools, then it counts as two (2) stools…”.Four response items were provided for both questions, 1) 2 stools, 2) 1stool, 3) it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper, 4) There is not enough information to be able to answer the question. Response frequencies between questions were compared. Results: Responses to the question without training saw some variability in the US, with 69% selecting “2 stools”,11% selecting “1 stool”, 14% selecting “it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper”, and 7% selecting “There is not enough information to be able to answer the question” and in Mexico respondents selected 9%, 78%, 13%, and 0% respectively. However, responses to the question after training saw more consolidation in the US, with 85% of respondents selecting“2 stools,” representing an increase in those selecting the correct answer. Additionally in Mexico, with 84% of respondents selecting “1 episode” representing an increase in the those selecting the correct response. Conclusions: Caregiver reported outcomes are critical for infant growth and tolerability studies, however, they can be highly subjective and see a high variability of responses without guidance. Training is critical to standardize all caregivers’ perspective regarding how to answer questions accurately in order to provide an accurate dataset.

Keywords: infant nutrition, clinical trial optimization, stool reporting, decentralized clinical trials

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Alldila Hendy, Agi Satria

Abstract:

Background: A colostomy procedure is an important part in the management of surgical procedures in some diseases involving the gastrointestinal tract. So it is necessary to find the factors that influence the occurrence of complications. Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analytic study in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital noting medical records of patients after the colostomy from January 2012 to December 2014 at the Division of Digestive Surgery. Results: In 136 cases of post-colostomy, 66 cases have complications, 14 is early-onset, and 52 is late-onset. 70 is without complications. Most complications are dermatitis, which is 31 (22.8%), cases of infection/abscess/fistula and intestinal obstruction are 13 (9.6%) and 5 patients (4.4%). A rare complication is colostomy retraction by 2 patients (1.5%), colostomy prolapse and necrosis/gangrene, which is only 3 patients (2.2%). A colostomy procedure in emergency surgery is riskier than elective surgery for complications after colostomy (p < 0.007, OR 2.85), Based on the operator who performs a colostomy procedure, the consultant had a lower risk of complications than fellow or resident (p < 0.0001). Based on the age factor, where the age of about 50 years has a risk of complications after colostomy (p < 0.018). Conclusion: The timing of operation (emergency or elective), age, and operator who perform a colostomy procedure have a significant relationship with an increased prevalence of complications after colostomy in RSCM.

Keywords: colostomy, complications, factors, procedure

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Ali. Marjani, M. Farsi, M. Rahimizadeh

Abstract:

Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is one of the important grain legume crops in the world. However, drought stress is a serious threat to chickpea production, and development of drought-resistant varieties is a necessity. Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the response of 8 chickpea genotypes (MCC* 696, 537, 80, 283, 392, 361, 252, 397) and drought stress (S1: non-stress, S2: stress at vegetative growth stage, S3: stress at early bloom, S4: stress at early pod visible) at different growth stages. Experiment was arranged in split plot design with four replications. Difference among the drought stress time was found to be significant for investigated traits except biological yield. Differences were observed for genotypes in flowering time, pod information time, physiological maturation time and yield. Plant height reduced due to drought stress in vegetative growth stage. Stem dry weight reduced due to drought stress in pod visibly. Flowering time, maturation time, pod number, number of seed per plant and yield cause of drought stress in flowering was also reduced. The correlation between yield and number of seed per plant and biological yield was positive. The MCC283 and MCC696 were the high-tolerance genotypes. These results demonstrated that drought stress delayed phonological growth in chickpea and that flowering stage is sensitive.

Keywords: chickpea, drought stress, growth stage, tolerance

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Jorge Santos, Ana V. Girão, F. J. Oliveira, Alexandre C. Bastos

Abstract:

Protective or decorative coatings containing hexavalent chromium compounds are still used on metal and plastic parts. These hexavalent chromium compounds represent a risk to living beings and the environment, and, for this reason, there is a great need to investigate alternatives. Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) is an environmentally friendly process that allows the deposition of wear and corrosion resistant thin films with excellent optical properties. However, PVD thin films are porous and if deposited onto low corrosion resistant substrates, lead to a degradation risk. The corrosion behavior of chromium-free electroplated coating systems finished with magnetron sputtered PVD thin films was investigated in this work. The electroplated systems consisted of distinct nickel layers deposited on top of a copper interlayer on acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plates. Electrochemical and corrosion evaluation was conducted by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves on the different electroplated coating systems, with and without PVD thin film on top. The results show that the corrosion resistance is lower for the electroplated coating systems finished with PVD thin film for extended exposure periods when compared to those without the PVD overlay.

Keywords: PVD, electroplating, corrosion, thin film

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: M. Beusink, E. W. C. Coenen

Abstract:

The increased application of novel structural materials, such as high grade asphalt, concrete and laminated composites, has sparked the need for a better understanding of the often complex, non-linear mechanical behavior of such materials. The effective macroscopic mechanical response is generally dependent on the applied load path. Moreover, it is also significantly influenced by the microstructure of the material, e.g. embedded fibers, voids and/or grain morphology. At present, multiscale techniques are widely adopted to assess micro-macro interactions in a numerically efficient way. Computational homogenization techniques have been successfully applied over a wide range of engineering cases, e.g. cases involving first order and second order continua, thin shells and cohesive zone models. Most of these homogenization methods rely on Representative Volume Elements (RVE), which model the relevant microstructural details in a confined volume. Imposed through kinematical constraints or boundary conditions, a RVE can be subjected to a microscopic load sequence. This provides the RVE's effective stress-strain response, which can serve as constitutive input for macroscale analyses. Simultaneously, such a study of a RVE gives insight into fine scale phenomena such as microstructural damage and its evolution. It has been reported by several authors that the type of boundary conditions applied to the RVE affect the resulting homogenized stress-strain response. As a consequence, dedicated boundary conditions have been proposed to appropriately deal with this concern. For the specific case of a planar assumption for the analyzed structure, e.g. plane strain, axisymmetric or plane stress, this assumption needs to be addressed consistently in all considered scales. Although in many multiscale studies a planar condition has been employed, the related impact on the multiscale solution has not been explicitly investigated. This work therefore focuses on the influence of the planar assumption for multiscale modeling. In particular the plane stress case is highlighted, by proposing three different implementation strategies which are compatible with a first-order computational homogenization framework. The first method consists of applying classical plane stress theory at the microscale, whereas with the second method a generalized plane stress condition is assumed at the RVE level. For the third method, the plane stress condition is applied at the macroscale by requiring that the resulting macroscopic out-of-plane forces are equal to zero. These strategies are assessed through a numerical study of a thin walled structure and the resulting effective macroscale stress-strain response is compared. It is shown that there is a clear influence of the length scale at which the planar condition is applied.

Keywords: first-order computational homogenization, planar analysis, multiscale, microstrucutures

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Nur H. Ahmad, Silvia S. Inge, Vanessa A. Julliete, A. Veraditias, Laila F. Febinda

Abstract:

Abdominal obesity is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome and mostly found in adolescents. Waist circumference is related to abdominal obesity which has a significant effect on the increase of blood pressure. Inulin is one of prebiotic, that has health benefits by offering the potential for lipid management, that can be useful to decrease the risk factor of metabolic syndrome. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effect of 10 gram inulin-substituted ice cream in waist circumference and blood pressure of abdominal obesity adolescents. Inulin had the ability to produce Short Chain Fatty Acid which can improve blood pressure and waist circumference. Systolic blood pressure was significantly decreased in the treatment group (p=0.028) with the mean of reduction 7.35 ± 11.59 mmHg. However, diastolic blood pressure and waist circumference showed no significant effect. Waist circumference, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure was decreased in control group. These results suggest that inulin-substituted ice cream used as therapeutics and prevention for the early onset of metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: blood pressure, inulin, metabolic syndrome, waist circumference

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Ezgi Avci-Surucu, Doganbey Akgul

Abstract:

Turkey’s energy reforms has achieved energy security through a variety of interlinked measures including electricity, gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency legislation; the establishment of an energy sector regulatory authority; energy price reform; the creation of a functional electricity market; restructuring of state-owned energy enterprises; and private sector participation through privatization and new investment. However, current strategies, namely; “Electricity Sector Reform and Privatization Strategy” and “Electricity Market and Supply Security Strategy” has been criticized for various aspects. The present paper analyzes the implementation of the aforementioned strategies in the framework of generation scheduling, transmission constraints, bidding structure and general aspects; and argues the deficiencies of current strategies which decelerates power investments and creates uncertainties. We conclude by policy suggestions to eliminate these deficiencies in terms of price and risk management, infrastructure, customer focused regulations and systematic market development.

Keywords: electricity markets, risk management, regulations, balancing and settlement, bilateral trading, generation scheduling, bidding structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 549

Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Sadia Saleem

Abstract:

Infertility is a global health concern that may have a long-lasting effect on the psychosocial functioning of an individual. Rich research evidence has shown that women with infertility are at greater risk of adverse psychological experiences than men. The culture plays a risk factor when it comes to infertility. Family is considered as a central focus of a collectivistic culture like Pakistan and having children is the key factor that determines the quality of a marital relationship, individual well-being and overall standing in the society. In this collectivistic cultural context, women usually get the blame and experience more psychological distress and social isolation. A total sample of 121 (M 28.17, SD 4.73) women with primary infertility selected through purposive sampling were tested using Emotional Disclosure Questionnaire, Couple Satisfaction Index and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. The results indicate that negative emotional disclosure positively mediates the relationship between marital satisfaction and mental health problems (p < .001) in women with primary infertility. The results are discussed in terms of psychosocial counseling and family psychoeducation in Pakistani collectivistic cultural context.

Keywords: infertility, couple satisfaction, emotional disclosure, mental health

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Mehrdad Sheikhvatan, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Mehrdad Behmanesh, Shayan Ziaee

Abstract:

Contradictory results have been obtained regarding the role of integrin, beta 3 (ITGB3) gene polymorphisms in occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, we aimed to assess the association between 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene and increased risk for acute MI in patients who suffered premature CAD in Iranian population. Our prospective study included 1000 patients (492 men and 508 women aged 21 to 55 years) referred to Tehran Heart center during a period of four years from 2008 to 2011 with the final diagnosis of premature CAD and classified into two groups with history of MI (n = 461) and without of MI (n = 539). The polymorphism variants were determined by PCR-RFLP technique by entering 10% of randomized samples and then genotyping of the polymorphism was also conducted by High Resolution Melting (HRM) method. Among study samples, 640 were followed with a median follow-up time 45.74 months for determining association of long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and genotypes of polymorphisms. There was no significant difference in the frequency of 1565C/T polymorphism between the MI and non-MI groups. The frequency of wild genotype was 69.2% and 72.2%, the frequency of homozygous genotype was 21.3% and 18.4%, and the frequency of mutant genotype was 9.5% and 9.5%, respectively (p=0.505). Results were also similar when adjusted for covariates in a multivariate logistic regression model. No significant difference was also found in total-MACE free survival rate between the patients with different genotypes of 1565C/T polymorphism in both MI and non-MI group. The carriage of the 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene seems unlikely to be a significant risk factor for the development of MI in Iranian patients with premature CAD. The presence of this ITGB3 gene polymorphism may not also predict long-term cardiac events.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, gene, integrin, beta 3, polymorphism

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Bernice Lottering, Yi-Wen Lin

Abstract:

Chronic pain and depression have an estimated 80% rate of comorbidity with unsatisfactory treatment interventions signifying the importance of developing effective therapeutic interventions for a serious chronic condition affecting a large majority of the global population. Chronic pain is defined as persistent pain presenting for over 3 months. This disease state increases the risk of developing depression in comparison to healthy individuals. In the current study, complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA) was used to induce cell-mediated chronic inflammatory pain in a murine model. Significant mechanical and thermal hyperalgesia was induced, alongside observable depression-like behaviors. These conditions were attenuated through the use of electroacupuncture (EA). Similarly, these effects were also investigated with respect to the transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1), by analyzing the effects of TRPV1 gene deletion on the comorbidity of chronic pain and depression. The expression of the TRPV1 inflammatory response, and related downstream molecules, including protein kinases (PKs), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPKs), and transcriptional factors, were significantly reduced in the thalamus, prefrontal cortex (PFC), hippocampus, and periaqueductal gray (PAG) of CFA-treated mice. In addition, phosphorylated N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor 1 was also found to be reduced in the aforementioned areas, suggesting potential application and validity in a clinical setting. Our study determined the prospective therapeutic effects of EA in the treatment of chronic inflammatory pain and depression comorbidity and provides a novel and detailed mechanism underlying EA-mediated analgesia. These findings may be relevant in the utilization of clinical intervention approaches related to chronic pain and depression comorbidity.

Keywords: chronic pain, depression, NMDA, prefrontal cortex, TRPV1

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

Abstract:

This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 544

Authors: Dong Seop Lee, Byung Sik Kim

Abstract:

In the 4th Industrial Revolution, various intelligent technologies have been developed in many fields. These artificial intelligence technologies are applied in various services, including disaster management. Disaster information management does not just support disaster work, but it is also the foundation of smart disaster management. Furthermore, it gets historical disaster information using artificial intelligence technology. Disaster information is one of important elements of entire disaster cycle. Disaster information management refers to the act of managing and processing electronic data about disaster cycle from its’ occurrence to progress, response, and plan. However, information about status control, response, recovery from natural and social disaster events, etc. is mainly managed in the structured and unstructured form of reports. Those exist as handouts or hard-copies of reports. Such unstructured form of data is often lost or destroyed due to inefficient management. It is necessary to manage unstructured data for disaster information. In this paper, the Optical Character Recognition approach is used to convert handout, hard-copies, images or reports, which is printed or generated by scanners, etc. into electronic documents. Following that, the converted disaster data is organized into the disaster code system as disaster information. Those data are stored in the disaster database system. Gathering and creating disaster information based on Optical Character Recognition for unstructured data is important element as realm of the smart disaster management. In this paper, Korean characters were improved to over 90% character recognition rate by using upgraded OCR. In the case of character recognition, the recognition rate depends on the fonts, size, and special symbols of character. We improved it through the machine learning algorithm. These converted structured data is managed in a standardized disaster information form connected with the disaster code system. The disaster code system is covered that the structured information is stored and retrieve on entire disaster cycle such as historical disaster progress, damages, response, and recovery. The expected effect of this research will be able to apply it to smart disaster management and decision making by combining artificial intelligence technologies and historical big data.

Keywords: disaster information management, unstructured data, optical character recognition, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Ogundele Lasun Tunde, Ayeku Oluwagbemiga Patrick

Abstract:

Heavy metals are released into the sediments in aquatic environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources and they are considered as worldwide issue due to their deleterious ecological risks and food chain disruption. In this study, sediments samples were collected at three major sites (Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro) along Ondo coastal area using VanVeen grab sampler. The concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by employing Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The combined concentrations data were subjected to Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor approach for source identification and apportionment. The probable risks that might be posed by heavy metals in the sediment were estimated by potential and integrated ecological risks indices. Among the measured heavy metals, Fe had the average concentrations of 20.38 ± 2.86, 23.56 ± 4.16 and 25.32 ± 4.83 lg/g at Abereke, Awoye and Ayetoro sites, respectively. The PMF resulted in identification of four sources of heavy metals in the sediments. The resolved sources and their percentage contributions were oil exploration (39%), industrial waste/sludge (35%), detrital process (18%) and Mn-sources (8%). Oil exploration activities and industrial wastes are the major sources that contribute heavy metals into the coastal sediments. The major pollutants that posed ecological risks to the local aquatic ecosystem are As, Pb, Cr and Cd (40 B Ei ≤ 80) classifying the sites as moderate risk. The integrate risks values of Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro are 231.2, 234.0 and 236.4, respectively suggesting that the study areas had a moderate ecological risk. The study showed the suitability of PMF receptor model for source identification of heavy metals in the sediments. Also, the intensive anthropogenic activities and natural sources could largely discharge heavy metals into the study area, which may increase the heavy metal contents of the sediments and further contribute to the associated ecological risk, thus affecting the local aquatic ecosystem.

Keywords: positive matrix factorization, sediments, heavy metals, sources, ecological risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 18

Authors: Jiraporn Rojtinnakorn, Mallika Supa-Aksorn, Sudaporn Tongsiri, Prachaub Chaibu

Abstract:

Marble goby is one of high demand consuming in Southeast Asia. However, the product was from riparian fisheries because of low yield in aquaculture, especially in nursery stage. Therefore, we studied for herb supplement in pellet feed of marble goby fingering. Garlic, a common herb and illustrated novel pharmaceutical and medical effectiveness, was considered. Garlic extracts with water (DW), 50% EtOH (50E), 95% EtOH (95E) and diethyl ether (DE) were subjected for feed additive to induce immune response in marble goby fingering for 0 (control), 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0 and 5.0 % (w/w). After seven days of feeding, blood was collected for analysis of blood composition; i.e. haematocrit (HCT), red blood cells (RBC), white blood cells (WBC) and humoral immune responses; i.e. lysozyme activity (Lys). It was resulted that values of HCT, WBC and Lys in all garlic fed group were significantly different from control (p < 0.05). For HCT, the highest values belonged to 5% DW and 0.5% 95E. For WBC and Lys, the highest values were 5% DW. For RBC, there was not obviously significant (p < 0.05). There were only 3 groups; 0.5% 95E, 1% and 5% DW, showed distinct statistical significance from the other groups. It was concluded that garlic extracts showed satisfy bioactivity to enhancing innate immune response in marble goby fingering. This result will be valuable for specific feed formula of marble goby nursery.

Keywords: garlic extract, innate immune, marble goby, Oxyeleotris marmoratus

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Takele Nemomsa, Girma Mamo, Tesfaye Balemi

Abstract:

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variance of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. In Ethiopia; Maize production in relation to climate change at regional and sub- regional scales have not been studied in detail. Thus, this study was aimed to analyse the impact of climate change on maize yield in Ambo Districts, Central Ethiopia. To this effect, weather data, soil data and maize experimental data for Arganne hybrid were used. APSIM software was used to investigate the response of maize (Zea mays) yield to different agronomic management practices using current and future (2020s–2080s) climate data. The climate change projections data which were downscaled using SDSM were used as input of climate data for the impact analysis. Compared to agronomic practices the impact of climate change on Arganne in Central Ethiopia is minute. However, within 2020s-2080s in Ambo area; the yield of Arganne hybrid is projected to reduce by 1.06% to 2.02%, and in 2050s it is projected to reduce by 1.56 While in 2080s; it is projected to increase by 1.03% to 2.07%. Thus, to adapt to the changing climate; farmers should consider increasing plant density and fertilizer rate per hectare.

Keywords: APSIM, downscaling, response, SDSM

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

Abstract:

Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Riffat Iqbal, Sidra Ihsan, Andleeb Batool, Maryam Mukhtar

Abstract:

Glaucoma is a gathering of optic neuropathies described by dynamic degeneration of retinal ganglionic cells. It is clinically and innately heterogenous illness containing a couple of particular forms each with various causes and severities. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most generally perceived kind of glaucoma. This study investigated the genetic association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs10483727 and rs33912345) at the SIX1/SIX6 locus with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the Pakistani population. The SIX6 gene plays an important role in ocular development and has been associated with morphology of the optic nerve. A total of 100 patients clinically diagnosed with glaucoma and 100 control individuals of age over 40 were enrolled in the study. Genomic DNA was extracted by organic extraction method. The SNP genotyping was done by (i) PCR based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequencing method. Significant genetic associations were observed for rs10483727 (risk allele T) and rs33912345 (risk allele C) with POAG. Hence, it was concluded that Six6 gene is genetically associated with pathogenesis of Glaucoma in Pakistan.

Keywords: genotyping, Pakistani population, primary open-angle glaucoma, SIX6 gene

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Ilana Margalith, Adaya Meirowitz, Sigalit Cohavi

Abstract:

Violence against health professionals by patients and their families have recently become a disturbing phenomenon worldwide, exacting psychological as well as economic tolls. Health workplaces in Israel (e.g. hospitals and H.M.O clinics) provide workshops for their employees, supplying them with coping strategies. However, these workshops do not focus on nursing students, who are also subjected to this violence. Their learning environment is no longer as protective as it used to be. Furthermore, coping with violence was not part of the curriculum for Israeli nursing students. Thus, based on human aggression theories which depict the pivotal role of the professional's correct response in preventing the onset of an aggressive response or the escalation of violence, a workshop was developed for undergraduate nursing students at the Clalit Nursing Academy, Rabin Campus (Dina), Israel. The workshop aimed at reducing students' anxiety vis a vis the aggressive patient or family in addition to strengthening their ability to cope with such situations. The students practiced interpersonal skills, especially relevant to early detection of potential violence, as well as ‘a correct response’ reaction to the violence, thus developing the necessary steps to be implemented when encountering violence in the workplace. In order to assess the efficiency of the workshop, the participants filled out a questionnaire comprising knowledge and self-efficacy scales. Moreover, the replies of the 23 participants in this workshop were compared with those of 24 students who attended a standard course on interpersonal communication. Students' self-efficacy and knowledge were measured in both groups before and after the course. A statistically significant interaction was found between group (workshop/standard course) and time (before/after) as to the influence on students' self-efficacy (p=0.004) and knowledge (p=0.007). Nursing students, who participated in this ‘coping with workplace violence’ workshop, gained knowledge, confidence and a sense of self-efficacy with regard to workplace violence. Early detection of signs of imminent violence amongst patients or families and the prevention of its escalation, as well as the ability to manage the threatening situation when occurring, are acquired skills. Encouraging nursing students to learn and practice these skills may enhance their ability to cope with these unfortunate occurrences.

Keywords: early detection of violence, nursing students, patient aggression, self-efficacy, workplace violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Sadia Munir, Diana White, Aya Albahri, Pratiwi Hastania, Eltahir Mohamed, Mahmood Khan, Fathima Mohamed, Ayat Kadhi, Haila Saleem

Abstract:

Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy. Prediction and management of preeclampsia is a challenge for obstetricians. To our knowledge, no major progress has been achieved in the prevention and early detection of preeclampsia. There is very little known about the clear treatment path of this disorder. Preeclampsia puts both mother and baby at risk of several short term- and long term-health problems later in life. There is huge health service cost burden in the health care system associated with preeclampsia and its complications. Preeclampsia is divided into two different types. Early onset preeclampsia develops before 34 weeks of gestation, and late onset develops at or after 34 weeks of gestation. Different genetic and environmental factors, prognosis, heritability, biochemical and clinical features are associated with early and late onset preeclampsia. Prevalence of preeclampsia greatly varies all over the world and is dependent on ethnicity of the population and geographic region. To authors best knowledge, no published data on preeclampsia exist in Qatar. In this study, we are reporting the incidence of preeclampsia in Qatar. The purpose of this study is to compare the incidence and risk factors of both early onset and late onset preeclampsia in Qatar. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from the hospital record of Women’s Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC), from May 2014-May 2016. Data collection tool, which was approved by HMC, was a researcher made extraction sheet that included information such as blood pressure during admission, socio demographic characteristics, delivery mode, and new born details. A total of 1929 patients’ files were identified by the hospital information management when they apply codes of preeclampsia. Out of 1929 files, 878 had significant gestational hypertension without proteinuria, 365 had preeclampsia, 364 had severe preeclampsia, and 188 had preexisting hypertension with superimposed proteinuria. In this study, 78% of the data was obtained by hospital electronic system (Cerner) and the remaining 22% was from patient’s paper records. We have gone through detail data extraction from 560 files. Initial data analysis has revealed that 15.02% of pregnancies were complicated with preeclampsia from May 2014-May 2016. We have analyzed difference in the two different disease entities in the ethnicity, maternal age, severity of hypertension, mode of delivery and infant birth weight. We have identified promising differences in the risk factors of early onset and late onset preeclampsia. The data from clinical findings of preeclampsia will contribute to increased knowledge about two different disease entities, their etiology, and similarities/differences. The findings of this study can also be used in predicting health challenges, improving health care system, setting up guidelines, and providing the best care for women suffering from preeclampsia.

Keywords: preeclampsia, incidence, risk factors, maternal

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

Abstract:

Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

Procedia PDF Downloads 337