Search results for: unbiased estimator

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Alfiah Hasanah, Silvia Mendolia, Oleg Yerokhin

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This paper explores the impacts of adult child migration on the health of elderly parents left behind. The maternal and children health are a priority of health-related policy in most low and middle-income country, and so there is lack of evidence on the health of older population particularly in Indonesia. With increasing life expectancy and limited access to social security and social services for the elderly in this country, the consequences of increasing number of out-migration of adult children to parent health are important to investigate. This study use Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), the only large-scale continuing longitudinal socioeconomic and health survey that based on a sample of households representing about 83 percent of the Indonesian population in its first wave. Using four waves of IFLS including the recent wave of 2014, several indicators of the self-rated health status, interviewer-rated health status and days of illness are used to estimate the impact of labour out-migration of adult children on parent health status. Incorporate both individual fixed effects to control for unobservable factors in migrant and non-migrant households and the ordered response of self-rated health, this study apply the ordered logit of “Blow-up and Cluster” (BUC ) estimator. The result shows that labour out-migration of adult children significantly improves the self-rated health status of the elderly parent left behind. Findings of this study are consistent with the view that migration increases family resources and contribute to better health care and nutrition of the family left behind.

Keywords: aging, migration, panel data, self-rated health

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

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Authors: Venkatesh Kumar, Kasun Hewage, Rehan Sadiq

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Residential buildings consume significant amounts of energy and produce a large amount of emissions and waste. However, there is a substantial potential for energy savings in this sector which needs to be evaluated over the life cycle of residential buildings. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology has been employed to study the primary energy uses and associated environmental impacts of different phases (i.e., product, construction, use, end of life, and beyond building life) for residential buildings. Four different alternatives of residential buildings in Vancouver (BC, Canada) with a 50-year lifespan have been evaluated, including High Rise Apartment (HRA), Low Rise Apartment (LRA), Single family Attached House (SAH), and Single family Detached House (SDH). Life cycle performance of the buildings is evaluated for embodied energy, embodied environmental impacts, operational energy, operational environmental impacts, total life-cycle energy, and total life cycle environmental impacts. Estimation of operational energy and LCA are performed using DesignBuilder software and Athena Impact estimator software respectively. The study results revealed that over the life span of the buildings, the relationship between the energy use and the environmental impacts are identical. LRA is found to be the best alternative in terms of embodied energy use and embodied environmental impacts; while, HRA showed the best life-cycle performance in terms of minimum energy use and environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to study the influence of building service lifespan over 50, 75, and 100 years on the relative significance of embodied energy and total life cycle energy. The life-cycle energy requirements for SDH is found to be a significant component among the four types of residential buildings. The overall disclose that the primary operations of these buildings accounts for 90% of the total life cycle energy which far outweighs minor differences in embodied effects between the buildings.

Keywords: building simulation, environmental impacts, life cycle assessment, life cycle energy analysis, residential buildings

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Authors: Mark Morgan, Christine Li, Shuangyu Xu, Jenny McCarty

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The National Wild and Scenic Rivers System was created by the U.S. Congress in 1968 (Public Law 90-542; 16 U.S.C. 1271 et seq.) to preserve outstanding natural, cultural, and recreational values of some U.S. rivers in a free-flowing condition for the enjoyment of present and future generations. This Act is notable for safeguarding the special character of these rivers while supporting management action that encourages public participation for co-creating river protection goals and strategies. This is not an easy task. To meet the challenges of modern ecosystem management, federal resource agencies must address many legal, environmental, economic, political, and social issues. The U.S. Forest Service manages a 44-mile section of the Eleven Point National Scenic River (EPR) in southern Missouri, mainly for outdoor recreation purposes. About half of the acreage is in private lands, while the remainder flows through the Mark Twain National Forest. Private land along the river is managed by scenic easements to ensure protection of scenic values and natural resources, without public access. A portion of the EPR lies adjacent to a 16,500-acre tract known as the Irish Wilderness. The spring-fed river has steep bluffs, deep pools, clear water, and a slow current, making it an ideal setting for outdoor enthusiasts. A 10-month visitor study was conducted at five access points along the EPR during 2019 so the US Forest Service could update their river management plan. A mail-back survey was administered to 560 on-site visitors, yielding a response rate of 53%. Although different types of visitors use the EPR, boating and fishing were the predominant forms of outdoor recreation. Some river use was from locals, but other visitors came from farther away. Formulating unbiased policies for outdoor recreation is difficult because managers must assign relative values to recreational activities and travel distance. Because policymaking is a subjective process, management decisions can affect user groups in different ways (i.e., boaters vs. fishers; proximate vs. distal visitors), as seen through a GIS analysis.

Keywords: activity selection, forest recreation, policy, travel distance

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Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Hadjer Sadoune, Liza Lamini, Scherazade Krim, Amel Djouadi, Rachida Rihani

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Deep neural networks are highly regarded for their accuracy in predicting intricate fermentation processes. Their ability to learn from a large amount of datasets through artificial intelligence makes them particularly effective models. The primary obstacle in improving the performance of these models is to carefully choose the suitable hyperparameters, including the neural network architecture (number of hidden layers and hidden units), activation function, optimizer, learning rate, and other relevant factors. This study predicts biogas production from real wastewater treatment plant data using a sophisticated approach: hybrid Bayesian optimization with a tree-structured Parzen estimator (BO-TPE) for an optimised deep neural network (DNN) model. The plant utilizes an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) digester that treats industrial wastewater from soft drinks and breweries. The digester has a working volume of 1574 m3 and a total volume of 1914 m3. Its internal diameter and height were 19 and 7.14 m, respectively. The data preprocessing was conducted with meticulous attention to preserving data quality while avoiding data reduction. Three normalization techniques were applied to the pre-processed data (MinMaxScaler, RobustScaler and StandardScaler) and compared with the Non-Normalized data. The RobustScaler approach has strong predictive ability for estimating the volume of biogas produced. The highest predicted biogas volume was 2236.105 Nm³/d, with coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.712, 164.610, and 223.429, respectively.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas production, deep neural network, hybrid bo-tpe, hyperparameters tuning

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Authors: Leizhang Wang, Baocang Wang

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General Sieve Kernel (G6K) is considered as currently the fastest algorithm for the shortest vector problem (SVP) and record holder of open SVP challenge. We study the lattice basis quality improvement effects of the Workout proposed in G6K, which is composed of a series of pumps to solve SVP. Firstly, we use a low-dimensional pump output basis to propose a predictor to predict the quality of high-dimensional Pumps output basis. Both theoretical analysis and experimental tests are performed to illustrate that it is more computationally expensive to solve the LWE problems by using a G6K default SVP solving strategy (Workout) than these lattice reduction algorithms (e.g. BKZ 2.0, Progressive BKZ, Pump, and Jump BKZ) with sieving as their SVP oracle. Secondly, the default Workout in G6K is optimized to achieve a stronger reduction and lower computational cost. Thirdly, we combine the optimized Workout and the Pump output basis quality predictor to further reduce the computational cost by optimizing LWE instances selection strategy. In fact, we can solve the TU LWE challenge (n = 65, q = 4225, = 0:005) 13.6 times faster than the G6K default Workout. Fourthly, we consider a combined two-stage (Preprocessing by BKZ- and a big Pump) LWE solving strategy. Both stages use dimension for free technology to give new theoretical security estimations of several LWE-based cryptographic schemes. The security estimations show that the securities of these schemes with the conservative Newhope’s core-SVP model are somewhat overestimated. In addition, in the case of LAC scheme, LWE instances selection strategy can be optimized to further improve the LWE-solving efficiency even by 15% and 57%. Finally, some experiments are implemented to examine the effects of our strategies on the Normal Form LWE problems, and the results demonstrate that the combined strategy is four times faster than that of Newhope.

Keywords: LWE, G6K, pump estimator, LWE instances selection strategy, dimension for free

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Authors: Diane M. Bender

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In architecture and design education, students learn and understand their discipline through lecture courses and within studios. A studio is where the instructor works closely with students to help them understand design by doing design work. The final jury is the culmination of the studio learning experience. It’s value and significance are rarely questioned. Students present their work before their peers, instructors, and invited reviewers, known as jurors. These jurors are recognized experts who add a breadth of feedback to students mostly in the form of a verbal critique of the work. Since the design review or jury has been a common element of studio education for centuries, jurors themselves have been instructed in this format. Therefore, they understand its value from both a student and a juror perspective. To better understand how these reviewers see the value of a studio review, a survey was distributed to reviewers at a multi-disciplinary design school within the United States. Five design disciplines were involved in this case study: architecture, graphic design, industrial design, interior design, and landscape architecture. Respondents (n=108) provided written comments about their perceived value of the studio review system. The average respondent was male (64%), between 40-49 years of age, and has attained a master’s degree. Qualitative analysis with thematic coding revealed several themes. Reviewers view the final jury as important because it provides a variety of perspectives from unbiased external practitioners and prepares students for similar presentation challenges they will experience in professional practice. They also see it as a way to validate the assessment and evaluation of students by faculty. In addition, they see a personal benefit for themselves and their firm – the ability to network with fellow jurors, professors, and students (i.e., future colleagues). Respondents also provided additional feedback about the jury system and studio education in general. Typical responses included a desire for earlier engagement with students; a better explanation from the instructor about the project parameters, rubrics/grading, and guidelines for juror involvement; a way to balance giving encouraging feedback versus overly critical comments; and providing training for jurors prior to reviews. While this study focused on the studio review, the findings are equally applicable to other disciplines. Suggestions will be provided on how to improve the preparation of guests in the learning process and how their interaction can positively influence student engagement.

Keywords: assessment, design, jury, studio

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Authors: L. R. Valencia Pérez, A. Morita Alexander, Peña A. Juan Manuel, A. Lamadrid Álvarez

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This research shows the reflection and identification of explanatory variables and their relationships between different variables that are involved with educational technology, all of them encompassed in macro-concepts which are: cognitive inequality, economy, food and language; These will give the guideline to have a more detailed knowledge of educational systems, the communication and equipment, the physical space and the teachers; All of them interacting with each other give rise to what is called educational technology management. These elements contribute to have a very specific knowledge of the equipment of communications, networks and computer equipment, systems and content repositories. This is intended to establish the importance of knowing a global environment in the transfer of knowledge in poor countries, so that it does not diminish the capacity to be authentic and preserve their cultures, their languages or dialects, their hierarchies and real needs; In short, to respect the customs of different towns, villages or cities that are intended to be reached through the use of internationally agreed professional educational technologies. The methodology used in this research is the analytical - descriptive, which allows to explain each of the variables, which in our opinion must be taken into account, in order to achieve an optimal incorporation of the educational technology in a model that gives results in a medium term. The idea is that in an encompassing way the concepts will be integrated to others with greater coverage until reaching macro concepts that are of national coverage in the countries and that are elements of conciliation in the different federal and international reforms. At the center of the model is the educational technology which is directly related to the concepts that are contained in factors such as the educational system, communication and equipment, spaces and teachers, which are globally immersed in macro concepts Cognitive inequality, economics, food and language. One of the major contributions of this article is to leave this idea under an algorithm that allows to be as unbiased as possible when evaluating this indicator, since other indicators that are to be taken from international preference entities like the OECD in the area of education systems studied, so that they are not influenced by particular political or interest pressures. This work opens the way for a relationship between involved entities, both conceptual, procedural and human activity, to clearly identify the convergence of their impact on the problem of education and how the relationship can contribute to an improvement, but also shows possibilities of being able to reach a comprehensive education reform for all.

Keywords: relationships macro-concepts, cognitive inequality, economics, alimentation and language

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Authors: Cornelius Michael Ekenta, Aderonke Bashirat Mohammed, Sefi Ahmed

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The research examined the impact of flooding on food calorie intake and health challenges among smallholder farm households in Koton Karfe Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria. Purposive and random sampling techniques were used to select 130 farm households in selected villages in the area. Primary data were generated through the administration of a well-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, Double Difference Estimator (DDE), Calorie Intake Estimation Function, t-test, and multiple regressions. The result shows that farm households lost an average of 132, 950kg of selected crops amounting to about N20m ($56, 542) loose in income. Food daily calorie intake indicates a loss of an average of 715.18Kcal, showing a significant difference in calorie intake before and after flooding (t = 2.0629) at 5% probability. Furthermore, the health challenges most prevalent during flooding were malaria fever, typhoid fever, cholera, and dysentery. The determinants of daily calorie intake were age, household size, level of income, flooding, health challenges, and food price. The study concluded that flooding had negative impacts on crop output and income, daily food calorie intact, and health challenges of a farm household in the study area. It was recommended that the State Government should make adequate and proper arrangements to relocate residents of the area at the warning of possible flooding by the National Metrological Centre and should, through the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), provide relieve items to the residents to cushion the effects of the flooding.

Keywords: calorie, cholera, flooding, health challenges, impact

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Authors: Liwiusz Wojciechowski

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Research background: The current knowledge does not give a clear answer to the question of the impact of FDI on productivity. Results of the empirical studies are still inconclusive, no matter how extensive and diverse in terms of research approaches or groups of countries analyzed they are. It should also take into account the possibility that FDI and productivity are linked and that there is a bidirectional relationship between them. This issue is particularly important because on one hand FDI can contribute to changes in productivity in the host country, but on the other hand its level and dynamics may imply that FDI should be undertaken in a given country. As already mentioned, a two-way relationship between the presence of foreign capital and productivity in the host country should be assumed, taking into consideration the endogenous nature of FDI. Purpose of the article: The overall objective of this study is to determine the causality between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity in host county in terms of different relative absorptive capacity across countries. In the classic sense causality among variables is not always obvious and requires for testing, which would facilitate proper specification of FDI models. The aim of this article is to study endogeneity of selected macroeconomic variables commonly being used in FDI models in case of Visegrad countries: main recipients of FDI in CEE. The findings may be helpful in determining the structure of the actual relationship between variables, in appropriate models estimation and in forecasting as well as economic policymaking. Methodology/methods: Panel and time-series data techniques including GMM estimator, VEC models and causality tests were utilized in this study. Findings & Value added: The obtained results allow to confirm the hypothesis states the bi-directional causality between FDI and total factor productivity. Although results differ from among countries and data level of aggregation implications may be useful for policymakers in case of providing foreign capital attracting policy.

Keywords: endogeneity, foreign direct investment, multi-equation models, total factor productivity

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Authors: Manmeet Kaur, Madhu Vij

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The Board of Directors in a firm performs the primary role of an internal control mechanism. This Study seeks to understand the relationship between internal governance and performance of banks in India. The research paper investigates the effect of board structure (proportion of nonexecutive directors, gender diversity, board size and meetings per year) on the firm performance. This paper evaluates the impact of corporate governance mechanisms on bank’s financial performance using panel data for 28 listed banks in National Stock Exchange of India for the period of 2008-2014. Returns on Asset, Return on Equity, Tobin’s Q and Net Interest Margin were used as the financial performance indicators. To estimate the relationship among governance and bank performance initially the Study uses Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Estimation and Generalized Least Square (GLS) Estimation. Then a well-developed panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimator is developed to investigate the dynamic nature of performance and governance relationship. The Study empirically confirms that two-step system GMM approach controls the problem of unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity as compared to the OLS and GLS approach. The result suggests that banks with small board, boards with female members, and boards that meet more frequently tend to be more efficient and subsequently have a positive impact on performance of banks. The study offers insights to policy makers interested in enhancing the quality of governance of banks in India. Also, the findings suggest that board structure plays a vital role in the improvement of corporate governance mechanism for financial institutions. There is a need to have efficient boards in banks to improve the overall health of the financial institutions and the economic development of the country.

Keywords: board of directors, corporate governance, GMM estimation, Indian banking

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Authors: Maria I. Nuñez-Hernández, Maria L. Riesco

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Background: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) up to 6 months old infant have been considered one of the most important factors in the overall development of children. Nevertheless, as resources are scarce, it is essential to identify the most vulnerable groups that have major risk of EBF abandonment, in order to deliver the best strategies. Children of adolescent mothers are within these groups. Aims: To determine the EBF abandonment rate among adolescent mothers and to analyze the associated factors. Methods: Prospective cohort study of adolescent mothers in the southern area of Santiago, Chile, conducted in primary care services of public health system. The cohort was established from 2014 to 2015, with a sample of 105 adolescent mothers and their children at 2 months of life. The inclusion criteria were: adolescent mother from 14 to 19 years old; not twin babies; mother and baby leaving the hospital together after birthchild; correct attachment of the baby to the breast; no difficulty understanding the Spanish language or communicating. Follow-up was performed at 4 and 6 months old infant. Data were collected by interviews, considering EBF as breastfeeding only, without adding other milk, tea, juice, water or other product that not breast milk, except drugs. Data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics, by Kaplan-Meier estimator and Log-Rank test, admitting the probability of occurrence of type I error of 5% (p-value = 0.05). Results: The cumulative EBF abandonment rate at 2, 4 and 6 months was 33.3%, 52.2% and 63.8%, respectively. Factors associated with EBF abandonment were maternal perception of the quality of milk as poor (p < 0.001), maternal perception that the child was not satisfied after breastfeeding (p < 0.001), use of pacifier (p < 0.001), maternal consumption of illicit drugs after delivery (p < 0.001), mother return to school (p = 0.040) and presence of nipple trauma (p = 0.045). Conclusion: EBF abandonment rate was higher in the first 4 months of life and is superior to the population of women who breastfeed. Among the EBF abandonment factors, one of them is related to the adolescent condition, and two are related to the maternal subjective perception.

Keywords: adolescent, breastfeeding, midwifery, nursing

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Authors: Farzam Fatolazadeh, Kalifa Goita, Mehdi Eshagh, Shusen Wang

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is a satellite mission with twin satellites for the precise determination of spatial and temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field. The products of this mission are monthly global gravity models containing the spherical harmonic coefficients and their errors. These GRACE models can be used for estimating terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations across the globe at large scales, thereby offering an opportunity for surface and groundwater storage (GWS) assessments. Yet, the ability of GRACE to monitor changes at smaller scales is too limited for local water management authorities. This is largely due to the low spatial and temporal resolutions of its models (~200,000 km2 and one month, respectively). High-resolution GRACE data products would substantially enrich the information that is needed by local-scale decision-makers while offering the data for the regions that lack adequate in situ monitoring networks, including northern parts of Canada. Such products could eventually be obtained through downscaling. In this study, we extended the spectral combination theory to simultaneously downscale spatiotemporally the 3o spatial coarse resolution of GRACE to 0.25o degrees resolution and monthly coarse resolution to daily resolution. This method combines the monthly gravity field solution of GRACE and daily hydrological model products in the form of both low and high-frequency signals to produce high spatiotemporal resolution TWSA and GWSA products. The main contribution and originality of this study are to comprehensively and simultaneously consider GRACE and hydrological variables and their uncertainties to form the estimator in the spectral domain. Therefore, it is predicted that we reach downscale products with an acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: GRACE satellite, groundwater storage, spectral combination, terrestrial water storage

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Authors: Priscila A. Bernardes, Marcos E. Buzanskas, Luciana C. A. Regitano, Ricardo V. Ventura, Danisio P. Munari

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The best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) is a method commonly used in genetic evaluations of breeding programs. However, this approach can lead to higher inbreeding coefficients in the population due to the intensive use of few bulls with higher genetic potential, usually presenting some degree of relatedness. High levels of inbreeding are associated to low genetic viability, fertility, and performance for some economically important traits and therefore, should be constantly monitored. Unreliable pedigree data can also lead to misleading results. Genomic information (i.e., single nucleotide polymorphism – SNP) is a useful tool to estimate the inbreeding coefficient. Runs of homozygosity have been used to evaluate homozygous segments inherited due to direct or collateral inbreeding and allows inferring population selection history. This study aimed to evaluate runs of homozygosity (ROH) and inbreeding in a population of Nelore beef cattle. A total of 814 animals were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD BeadChip and the quality control was carried out excluding SNPs located in non-autosomal regions, with unknown position, with a p-value in the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium lower than 10⁻⁵, call rate lower than 0.98 and samples with the call rate lower than 0.90. After the quality control, 809 animals and 509,107 SNPs remained for analyses. For the ROH analysis, PLINK software was used considering segments with at least 50 SNPs with a minimum length of 1Mb in each animal. The inbreeding coefficient was calculated using the ratio between the sum of all ROH sizes and the size of the whole genome (2,548,724kb). A total of 25.711 ROH were observed, presenting mean, median, minimum, and maximum length of 3.34Mb, 2Mb, 1Mb, and 80.8Mb, respectively. The number of SNPs present in ROH segments varied from 50 to 14.954. The longest ROH length was observed in one animal, which presented a length of 634Mb (24.88% of the genome). Four bulls were among the 10 animals with the longest extension of ROH, presenting 11% of ROH with length higher than 10Mb. Segments longer than 10Mb indicate recent inbreeding. Therefore, the results indicate an intensive use of few sires in the studied data. The distribution of ROH along the chromosomes showed that chromosomes 5 and 6 presented a large number of segments when compared to other chromosomes. The mean, median, minimum, and maximum inbreeding coefficients were 5.84%, 5.40%, 0.00%, and 24.88%, respectively. Although the mean inbreeding was considered low, the ROH indicates a recent and intensive use of few sires, which should be avoided for the genetic progress of breed.

Keywords: autozygosity, Bos taurus indicus, genomic information, single nucleotide polymorphism

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Authors: Madhalasa Iyer

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The increase in sustainable practices have encouraged the research and production of alternative fuels. New techniques of bio flocculation with the addition of yeast and bacteria strains have increased the efficiency of biofuel production. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis in previous research has indicated that yeast can serve as a plausible enhancer for microalgal lipid production. The research hopes to identify the yeast and microalgae treatment group that produces the largest algae biomass. The mass of the dried algae is used as a proxy for TAG production correlating to the cultivation of biofuels. The study uses a model bioreactor created and built using PVC pipes, 8-port sprinkler system manifold, CO2 aquarium tank, and disposable water bottles to grow the microalgae. Nannochloropsis sp., and Isochrysis galbanawere inoculated separately in experimental group 1 and 2 with no treatments and in experimental groups 3 and 4 with each algaeco-cultured with Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the medium of standard garden stone fertilizer. S. cerevisiae was grown in a petri dish with nutrient agar medium before inoculation. A Secchi stick was used before extraction to collect data for the optical density of the microalgae. The biomass estimator was then used to measure the approximate production of biomass. The microalgae were grown and extracted with a french press to analyze secondary measurements using the dried biomass. The experimental units of Isochrysis galbana treated with the baker’s yeast strains showed an increase in the overall mass of the dried algae. S. cerevisiae proved to be an accurate and helpful addition to the solution to provide for the growth of algae. The increase in productivity of this fuel source legitimizes the possible replacement of non-renewable sources with more promising renewable alternatives. This research furthers the notion that yeast and mutants can be engineered to be employed in efficient biofuel creation.

Keywords: biofuel, co-culture, S. cerevisiae, microalgae, yeast

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr

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Knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall trends has been of great concern for efficient water resource planning, management. In this study annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends over the Sinai Peninsula were analyzed by using absolute homogeneity tests, nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The homogeneity of rainfall time-series was examined using four absolute homogeneity tests namely, the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test. Further, the sequential change in the trend of annual and seasonal rainfalls is conducted using sequential MK (SQMK) method. Then the trend analysis based on discrete wavelet transform technique (DWT) in conjunction with SQMK method is performed. The spatial patterns of the detected rainfall trends were investigated using a geostatistical and deterministic spatial interpolation technique. The results achieved from the Mann–Kendall test to the data series (using the 5% significance level) highlighted that rainfall was generally decreasing in January, February, March, November, December, wet season, and annual rainfall. A significant decreasing trend in the winter and annual rainfall with significant levels were inferred based on the Mann-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. Further, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) analysis reveal that in general, intra- and inter-annual events (up to 4 years) are more influential in affecting the observed trends. The nature of the trend captured by both methods is similar for all of the cases. On the basis of spatial trend analysis, significant rainfall decreases were also noted in the investigated stations. Overall, significant downward trends in winter and annual rainfall over the Sinai Peninsula was observed during the study period.

Keywords: trend analysis, rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, discrete wavelet transform, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Cita Ayeni

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Following countless violations of Human Rights in Nigeria by the various arms and agencies of government; from the Military to the Federal Police and other law enforcement agencies, Nigeria has been riddled with several reports of acts by these agencies against the citizens, ranging from illegal arrest and imprisonment, torture, disappearing, and extrajudicial killings, just to mention a few. This paper, focuses on SARS (Special Anti-Robbery Squad), a division of the Nigeria Police Force, and its reported threats to the people’s security, particularly the Nigerian youths, with continuous violence, extortion, illegal arrest and imprisonment, terror, and extrajudicial activities resulting in maiming and in most cases death, thus infringing on the human rights of the people it’s sworn to protect. This research further analyses how the activities of SARS has over the years instigated fear on the average Nigerian youth, preventing the free participation in daily life, education, job, and individual development, in turn impeding the realization of their full potentials for growth and participation in collective national development. This research analyzes the executive order by the then Acting President (Vice-President) of Nigeria, directing the overhauling of SARS, and its implementation by the Federal Police Force in determining if it’s enough to prevent or put a stop to the continuous Human Rights abuse and threat to the security of the individual citizen. Concluding that although the order by the Acting President was given with an intent to halt the various violations by SARS, and the Inspector General of Police’s (IGP) subsequent action by releasing a statement following the order, the bureaucracy in Nigeria, with a history of incompetency and a return to 'business as usual' after a reduced public outcry, it’s most likely that there will not be adequate follow up put in place and these violations would be slowly 'swept under the rug' with SARS officials not held accountable. It is recommended therefore that the Federal Government through the NPF, following the reforms made, in collaboration with the mentioned Independent Human Rights and civil societies organizations should periodically produce unbiased and publicly accessible reports on the implementation of these reforms and progress made. This will go a long way in assuring the public of actual fulfillment of the restructuring, reduce fear by the youths and restore some public faith in the government.

Keywords: special anti-robbery squad, youths in Nigeria, overhaul, insecurities, human rights violations

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Sepideh Mirzaee

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Gender-transformative (G-TE) education is a challenging concept in the field of education and it is a matter of hot debate in the contemporary world. Paulo Freire as the prominent advocate of transformative education considers it as an alternative to conventional banking model of education. Besides, a more inclusive concept has been introduced, namely, G-TE, as an unbiased education fostering an environment of gender justice. As its main tenet, G-TE eliminates obstacles to education and improves social shifts. A plethora of contemporary research indicates that G-TE could completely revolutionize education systems by displacing inequalities and changing gender stereotypes. Despite significant progress in female education and its effects on gender equality in Iran, challenges persist. There are some deficiencies regarding gender disparities in the society and, education, specifically. As an example, the number of women with university degrees is on the rise; thus, there will be an increasing demand for employment in the society by them. Instead, many job opportunities remain occupied by men and it is seen as intolerable for the society to assign such occupations to women. In fact, Iran is regarded as a patriarchal society where educational contexts can play a critical role to assign gender ideology to its learners. Thus, such gender ideologies in the education can become the prevailing ideologies in the entire society. Therefore, improving education in this regard, can lead to a significant change in a society subsequently influencing the status of women not only within their own country but also on a global scale. Notably, higher education plays a vital role in this empowerment and social change. Particularly higher education can have a crucial part in imparting gender neutral ideologies to its learners and bringing about substantial change. It has the potential to alleviate the detrimental effects of gender inequalities. Therefore, this study aims to conceptualize the pivotal role of G-TE and its potential power in developing gender equality within the higher educational system of Iran presented within a theoretical framework. The study emphasizes the necessity of stablishing a theoretical grounding for citizenship, and transformative education while distinguishing gender related issues including gender equality, equity and parity. This theoretical foundation will shed lights on the decisions made by policy-makers, syllabus designers, material developers, and specifically professors and students. By doing so, they will be able to promote and implement gender equality recognizing the determinants, obstacles, and consequences of sustaining gender-transformative approaches in their classes within the Iranian higher education system. The expected outcomes include the eradication of gender inequality, transformation of gender stereotypes and provision of equal opportunities for both males and females in education.

Keywords: citizenship education, gender inequality, higher education, patriarchal society, transformative education

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Authors: Moses Mwangi, Geert Verbeke, Geert Molenberghs

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Cross-over designs are commonly used in randomized clinical trials to estimate efficacy of a new treatment with respect to a reference treatment (placebo or standard). The main advantage of using cross-over design over conventional parallel design is its flexibility, where every subject become its own control, thereby reducing confounding effect. Jones & Kenward, discuss in detail more recent developments in the analysis of cross-over trials. We revisit the simple piecewise linear mixed-effects model, proposed by Mwangi et. al, (in press) for its first application in the analysis of cross-over trials. We compared performance of the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model with two commonly cited statistical models namely, (1) Grizzle model; and (2) Jones & Kenward model, used in estimation of the treatment effect, in the analysis of randomized cross-over trial. We estimate two performance measurements (mean square error (MSE) and coverage probability) for the three methods, using data simulated from the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model. Piecewise linear mixed-effects model yielded lowest MSE estimates compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small (Nobs=20) and large (Nobs=600) sample sizes. It’s coverage probability were highest compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small and large sample sizes. A piecewise linear mixed-effects model is a better estimator of treatment effect than its two competing estimators (Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models) in the analysis of cross-over trials. The data generating mechanism used in this paper captures two time periods for a simple 2-Treatments x 2-Periods cross-over design. Its application is extendible to more complex cross-over designs with multiple treatments and periods. In addition, it is important to note that, even for single response models, adding more random effects increases the complexity of the model and thus may be difficult or impossible to fit in some cases.

Keywords: Evaluation, Grizzle model, Jones & Kenward model, Performance measures, Simulation

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Authors: Kevin Henry

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Introduction: This research identifies the main struggles of non-binary people in an organizational setting using the ZMET – method of in-depth interviews. The research was done in Iceland, a country that is repeatedly listed in the top countries for gender equality and found three main categories of non-binary struggles in organizations. These categories can be used to improve organizational non-binary inclusion. Aim: The main questions this paper will answer are: Which unique obstacles are non-binary people facing in their daily organizational life? Which organizational and individual measures help with more inclusion of non-binary people? How can organizational gender equality measures be made more inclusive of non-binary issues? Background: Even though gender equality is a much-researched topic, the struggles of non-binary people are often overlooked in gender equality research. Additionally, non-binary and transgender people are frequently researched together, even though their struggles can be very different. Research focused on non-binary people is, in many cases, done on a more structural or organizational level with quantitative data such as salary or position within an organization. This research focuses on the individual and their struggles with qualitative data to derive measures for non-binary inclusion and equality. Method: An adapted approach of the ZMET-Method (Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique) will be used, during which in-depth interviews are held with individuals, utilizing pictures as a metaphorical starting point to discuss their main thoughts and feelings on being non-binary in an organizational setting. Interviewees prepared five pictures, each representing one key thought or feeling about their organizational life. The interviewer then lets the interviewee describe each picture and asks probing questions to get a deeper understanding of each individual topic. This method helps with a mostly unbiased data collection process by only asking probing questions during the interview and not leading the interviewee in any certain direction. Results: This research has identified three main categories of struggles non-binary people are facing in an organizational setting: internal (personal) struggles, external struggles and structural struggles. Internal struggles refer to struggles that originate from the person themselves (e.g., struggles with their own identity). External struggles refer to struggles from the outside (e.g. harassment from coworkers, exclusion). Structural struggles refer to struggles that are built into the organizational policy or facilities (e.g. restrooms, gendered language). Conclusion: This study shows that there are many struggles for non-binary people in organizations and that even in countries that pride themselves on being progressive and having a high level of gender equality, there is still much to be done for non-binary inclusion. Implications for Organizations: Organizations that strive to improve the inclusion of all genders should pay attention to how their structures are built, how their training is conducted, and how their policies affect people of various genders. Simple changes like making restrooms gender-neutral and using neutral language in company communications are good examples of small structural steps for more inclusion.

Keywords: gender equality, non-binary, organizations, ZMET

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Authors: Shimeles Terefe Mengistue, Ascensión Del Olmo, Paola Marziani, Mirjana Pović, María Angeles Martínez-Carballo, Jaime Perea, Isabel M. Árquez

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Quasars have historically been classified into two distinct classes, radio-loud (RL) and radio-quiet (RQ), taking into account the presence and absence of relativistic radio jets, respectively. The absence of spectra with a high S/N ratio led to the impression that all quasars (QSOs) are spectroscopically similar. Although different attempts were made to unify these two classes, there is a long-standing open debate involving the possibility of a real physical dichotomy between RL and RQ quasars. In this work, we present new high S/N spectra of 11 extremely powerful jetted quasars with radio-to-optical flux density ratio > 1000 that concomitantly cover the low-ionization emission of Mgii𝜆2800 and Hbeta𝛽 as well as the Feii blends in the redshift range 0.35 < z < 1, observed at Calar Alto Observatory (Spain). This work aims to quantify broad emission line differences between RL and RQ quasars by using the four-dimensional eigenvector 1 (4DE1) parameter space and its main sequence (MS) and to check the effect of powerful radio ejection on the low ionization broad emission lines. Emission lines are analysed by making two complementary approaches, a multicomponent non-linear fitting to account for the individual components of the broad emission lines and by analysing the full profile of the lines through parameters such as total widths, centroid velocities at different fractional intensities, asymmetry, and kurtosis indices. It is found that broad emission lines show large reward asymmetry both in Hbeta𝛽 and Mgii2800A. The location of our RL sources in a UV plane looks similar to the optical one, with weak Feii UV emission and broad Mgii2800A. We supplement the 11 sources with large samples from previous work to gain some general inferences. The result shows, compared to RQ, our extreme RL quasars show larger median Hbeta full width at half maximum (FWHM), weaker Feii emission, larger 𝑀BH, lower 𝐿bol/𝐿Edd, and a restricted space occupation in the optical and UV MS planes. The differences are more elusive when the comparison is carried out by restricting the RQ population to the region of the MS occupied by RL quasars, albeit an unbiased comparison matching 𝑀BH and 𝐿bol/𝐿Edd suggests that the most powerful RL quasars show the highest redward asymmetries in Hbeta.

Keywords: galaxies, active, line, profiles, quasars, emission lines, supermassive black holes

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: Alina Muradyan, Lina Babayan, Arsen Nanyan, Gohar Galstyan, Vigen Khachatryan

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We present a photometric method for identifying stars, galaxies and quasars in multi-color surveys, which uses a library of ∼> 65000 color templates for comparison with observed objects. The method aims for extracting the information content of object colors in a statistically correct way, and performs a classification as well as a redshift estimation for galaxies and quasars in a unified approach based on the same probability density functions. For the redshift estimation, we employ an advanced version of the Minimum Error Variance estimator which determines the redshift error from the redshift dependent probability density function itself. The method was originally developed for the Calar Alto Deep Imaging Survey (CADIS), but is now used in a wide variety of survey projects. We checked its performance by spectroscopy of CADIS objects, where the method provides high reliability (6 errors among 151 objects with R < 24), especially for the quasar selection, and redshifts accurate within σz ≈ 0.03 for galaxies and σz ≈ 0.1 for quasars. For an optimization of future survey efforts, a few model surveys are compared, which are designed to use the same total amount of telescope time but different sets of broad-band and medium-band filters. Their performance is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations as well as by analytic evaluation in terms of classification and redshift estimation. If photon noise were the only error source, broad-band surveys and medium-band surveys should perform equally well, as long as they provide the same spectral coverage. In practice, medium-band surveys show superior performance due to their higher tolerance for calibration errors and cosmic variance. Finally, we discuss the relevance of color calibration and derive important conclusions for the issues of library design and choice of filters. The calibration accuracy poses strong constraints on an accurate classification, which are most critical for surveys with few, broad and deeply exposed filters, but less severe for surveys with many, narrow and less deep filters.

Keywords: VO, ArVO, DFBS, FITS, image processing, data analysis

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Authors: Sourav Ray, Christoph Stein, Marcus Weber

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A new class of drug candidates, initially derived from mathematical modeling of ligand-receptor interactions, activate the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) preferentially at acidic extracellular pH-levels, as present in injured tissues. This is of commercial interest because it may preclude the adverse effects of conventional MOR agonists like fentanyl, which include but are not limited to addiction, constipation, sedation, and apnea. Animal studies indicate the importance of taking the pH value of the chemical environment of MOR into account when designing new drugs. Hydrogen bonds (HBs) play a crucial role in stabilizing protein secondary structure and molecular interaction, such as ligand-protein interaction. These bonds may depend on the pH value of the chemical environment. For the MOR, antagonist naloxone and agonist [D-Ala2,N-Me-Phe4,Gly5-ol]-enkephalin (DAMGO) form HBs with ionizable residue HIS 297 at physiological pH to modulate signaling. However, such interactions were markedly reduced at acidic pH. Although fentanyl-induced signaling is also diminished at acidic pH, HBs with HIS 297 residue are not observed at either acidic or physiological pH for this strong agonist of the MOR. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can provide greater insight into the interaction between the ligand of interest and the HIS 297 residue. Amino acid protonation states are adjusted to the model difference in system acidity. Unbiased and unrestrained MD simulations were performed, with the ligand in the proximity of the HIS 297 residue. Ligand-receptor complexes were embedded in 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn glycero-3-phosphatidylcholine (POPC) bilayer to mimic the membrane environment. The occurrence of HBs between the different ligands and the HIS 297 residue of MOR at acidic and physiological pH values were tracked across the various simulation trajectories. No HB formation was observed between fentanyl and HIS 297 residue at either acidic or physiological pH. Naloxone formed some HBs with HIS 297 at pH 5, but no such HBs were noted at pH 7. Interestingly, DAMGO displayed an opposite yet more pronounced HB formation trend compared to naloxone. Whereas a marginal number of HBs could be observed at even pH 5, HBs with HIS 297 were more stable and widely present at pH 7. The HB formation plays no and marginal role in the interaction of fentanyl and naloxone, respectively, with the HIS 297 residue of MOR. However, HBs play a significant role in the DAMGO and HIS 297 interaction. Post DAMGO administration, these HBs might be crucial for the remediation of opioid tolerance and restoration of opioid sensitivity. Although experimental studies concur with our observations regarding the influence of HB formation on the fentanyl and DAMGO interaction with HIS 297, the same could not be conclusively stated for naloxone. Therefore, some other supplementary interactions might be responsible for the modulation of the MOR activity by naloxone binding at pH 7 but not at pH 5. Further elucidation of the mechanism of naloxone action on the MOR could assist in the formulation of cost-effective naloxone-based treatment of opioid overdose or opioid-induced side effects.

Keywords: effect of system acidity, hydrogen bond formation, opioid action, receptor activation

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Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Thomas Vlasak, Tanja Dujlociv, Alfred Barth

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Shift work is an essential element of modern labor, ensuring ideal conditions of service for today’s economy and society. Despite the beneficial properties, its impact on the neurobehavioral performance of exposed subjects remains controversial. This meta-analysis aims to provide first summarizing the effects regarding the association between shift work exposure and different cognitive functions. A literature search was performed via the databases PubMed, PsyINFO, PsyARTICLES, MedLine, PsycNET and Scopus including eligible studies until December 2020 that compared shift workers with non-shift workers regarding neurobehavioral performance tests. A random-effects model was carried out using Hedge’s g as a meta-analytical effect size with a restricted likelihood estimator to summarize the mean differences between the exposure group and controls. The heterogeneity of effect sizes was addressed by a sensitivity analysis using funnel plots, egger’s tests, p-curve analysis, meta-regressions, and subgroup analysis. The meta-analysis included 18 studies resulting in a total sample of 18,802 participants and 37 effect sizes concerning six different neurobehavioral outcomes. The results showed significantly worse performance in shift workers compared to non-shift workers in the following cognitive functions with g (95% CI): processing speed 0.16 (0.02 - 0.30), working memory 0.28 (0.51 - 0.50), psychomotor vigilance 0.21 (0.05 - 0.37), cognitive control 0.86 (0.45 - 1.27) and visual attention 0.19 (0.11 - 0.26). Neither significant moderating effects of publication year or study quality nor significant subgroup differences regarding type of shift or type of profession were indicated for the cognitive outcomes. These are the first meta-analytical findings that associate shift work with decreased cognitive performance in processing speed, working memory, psychomotor vigilance, cognitive control, and visual attention. Further studies should focus on a more homogenous measurement of cognitive functions, a precise assessment of experience of shift work and occupation types which are underrepresented in the current literature (e.g., law enforcement). In occupations where shift work is fundamental (e.g., healthcare, industries, law enforcement), protective countermeasures should be promoted for workers.

Keywords: meta-analysis, neurobehavioral performance, occupational psychology, shift work

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