Search results for: operational risk

Authors: Ziyu Zhang, Xuanyu Ren, Fei Wu, Qinfei Lu, Yongmei Li, Xinyue Zhi

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Introduction: Adolescents experience a critical period of physical and psychological growth. Few studies focus on the influence of sleep hygiene on psychological health from the high school period to freshmen year. Also, the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic has public health significance. Methods: Totally 698 students from high school and college were included in the manuscript, and a cross-sectional procedure was conducted; the objective was to make the epidemiological comparison of the social phobia/depression prevalence and discuss the effects of potential determinants. Results: Psychological problems, including social phobia and depression, are prevalent, especially among high school students, with gender differences. The current results indicated that the association between sleep status and social phobia is most obvious among high school students, while the higher MMR risk was found both for high school social phobia students and college depressive freshmen. Moreover, the interaction between social phobia and depression was also obvious for both populations. Conclusions: Psychological problems, including social phobia and depression, are more prevalent among high school girls when compared with their male and freshmen peers. Important influenced factors for the risk of psychological problems among the two populations were different, but media multitasking status should be paid attention to for both.

Keywords: adolescence, psychological health, epidemiology, social culture

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Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

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The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switches

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Authors: R. A. Ribeiro, P. D. Angelo Assunção, E. M. Braga

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The microhardness in weld beads is a function of the microstructure obtained in the welding process, and this by its time is dependent of the input variables established at the outset of the process. In this study the influence of angle between the plate and the cold wire, the position in which the cold wire is introduced and the rate in which this introduction is made are assessed as input parameters in CW-GMAW process. This paper looks to show that ordinary changes in the frame of CW-GMAW can improve microhardness, which is expected to vary as the input parameters change. To properly correlate the changes in the input parameters to consequent changes in microhardness of the weld bead, a full factorial design was employed. In fact, changes in the operational parameters improved the overall microhardness of the weld bead, which in turns can be an indication of improvement in the resistance to abrasive wear, constituting a cheap way to augment the abrasion wear resistance of welds used for cladding.

Keywords: abrasion, CW-GMAW, full factorial design, microhardness

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Authors: Fatima M. Jadu, Asmaa A. Alzahrani, Maha A. Almutairi, Salma O. Al-Amoudi, Mawya A. Khafaji

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Introduction: Estimating the potential radiation risk for a widely used imaging technique such as cone beam CT (CBCT) is crucial. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of varying two CBCT technical factors, the voxel size (VOX) and the Field-of-View (FOV) centralization, on the radiation dose. Methodology: The head and neck slices of a RANDO® man phantom (Alderson Research Laboratories) were used with nanoDot™ OSLD dosimeters to measure the absorbed radiation dose at 25 predetermined sites. Imaging was done using the i-CAT® (Imaging Science International, Hatfield, PA, USA) CBCT unit. The VOX was changed for every three cycles of exposures from 0.2mm to 0.3mm and then 0.4mm. Then the FOV was centered on the maxilla and mandible alternatively while holding all other factors constant. Finally, the effective radiation dose was calculated for each view and voxel setting. Results: The effective radiation dose was greatest when the smallest VOX was chosen. When the FOV was centered on the maxilla, the highest radiation doses were recorded in the eyes and parotid glands. While on the mandible, the highest radiation doses were recorded in the sublingual and submandibular glands. Conclusion: Minor variations in the CBCT exposure factors significantly affect the effective radiation dose and thus the radiation risk to the patient. Therefore, extreme care must be taken when choosing these parameters especially for vulnerable patients such as children.

Keywords: CBCT, cone beam CT, effective dose, field of view, mandible, maxilla, resolution, voxel

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Authors: Md. Rashed Aalm, Md. Nuruzzaman Khan, Yothin Sawangdee

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Background: Around 47% of the total pregnancies are unintended in Bangladesh, which lead to several adverse consequences, including maternal and child mortality. Use of menstrual regulation (MR) can help women to reduce unintended pregnancy related adverse consequences. We explored the prevalence and determinants of MR services among ever-married women in Bangladesh. Methods: Total of 14,346 ever-married women data were analysed from the 2017 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Our study variable was use or non-use of MR services. Individual, household, and community level factors were the explanatory factors. Multilevel mixed-effect Poisson regression model was used to determine the factors associated with MR services in Bangladesh. Results: Nearly 7% of the total women in Bangladesh use MR services. Use of MR services was found higher among women who were aged 20-30 ages (IRR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.17–2.17), who were overweight (IRR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.13–1.81), had at least 1 child (IRR 2.97, 95% CI: 2.34– 3.77) or > 2 children (IRR 3.22, 95% CI: 2.45–4.20), and the birth preceding birth interval was(2 – 4) years (IRR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.13–2.15). Around 1.39 times (95% CI: 1.11–1.73) higher likelihood of MR was found among women whose husbands were engage with business. At the community level, MR service was found lower among the women who resided in the community with higherilliteracy (IRR 0.67, 95% CI: 0.42–0.96) and the Mymensingh division (IRR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.31–0.91). Conclusion: Use of MR service is comparatively low, which indicate a significant proportion of unintended pregnancy continued toward life-birth. This could be responsible for higher adverse maternal and child health outcomes in Bangladesh. Initiatives should be taken to ensure MR services is available when women need this service.

Keywords: menstrual regulation, pattern, risk, maternal health, Bangladesh

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Authors: Feri̇t Çakici, M. Kemal Leblebi̇ci̇oğlu

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In this study, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with level flight, vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) and mode-transitioning capability is designed and analyzed. The platform design combines both multirotor and fixed-wing (FW) conventional airplane structures and control surfaces; therefore named as VTOL-FW. The aircraft is modeled using aerodynamical principles and linear models are constructed utilizing small perturbation theory for trim conditions. The proposed method of control includes implementation of multirotor and airplane mode controllers and design of an algorithm to transition between modes in achieving smooth switching maneuvers between VTOL and FW flight. Thus, VTOL-FW UAV’s flight characteristics are expected to be improved by enlarging operational flight envelope through enabling mode-transitioning, agile maneuvers and increasing survivability. Experiments conducted in simulation and real world environments shows that VTOL-FW UAV has both multirotor and airplane characteristics with extra benefits in an enlarged flight envelope.

Keywords: aircraft design, linear analysis, mode transitioning control, UAV

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Authors: Ruth Muturi Wanjiku

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HIV/AIDS in Kenya for unborn and young kids. HIV/AIDS is a significant health concern in Kenya, with an estimated 1.5 million people living with the disease. Unfortunately, many of these individuals are unaware of their HIV status, and the disease continues to spread among the population or unborn kids. HIV/AIDS can be transmitted from an infected mother during pregnancy, childbirth, or breastfeeding. However, with early testing and treatment, the risk of mother-to-child transmission can be significantly reduced. Therefore, it is crucial for pregnant women to get tested and receive appropriate medical care. For young kids, HIV/AIDS education is critical to preventing the spread of the disease. It is essential to teach children about the importance of safe sex practices, avoiding risky behaviors such as sharing needles and getting tested regularly. Additionally, children should be taught about the stigma surrounding HIV/AIDS and encouraged to treat individuals living with the disease with compassion and respect. In conclusion, HIV/AIDS is a significant health concern in Kenya that affects individuals of all ages. For unborn kids, early testing and treatment are critical to reducing the risk of mother-to-child transmission. For young kids, education about HIV/AIDS and safe sex practices is essential to preventing the spread of the disease and reducing stigma. It is essential to promote awareness and encourage individuals to get tested and seek medical care if they believe they may be infected with HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV, children, pregnant

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Authors: Yogita Tulsian, R. S. Gupta, K. F. Laserson

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Background: Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB facilitates disease transmission in the community, so we conducted a study to evaluate the burden of and risk factors for delay in TB diagnosis and initiation of TB treatment among patients in the private and public sectors in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 100 new sputum-positive TB. Patients were interviewed in the intensive phase of treatment September 2013-November 2013 Long total diagnosis delay (TDD) was defined as a time interval between first symptom to confirmed diagnosis > 30 days. Long health treatment delay (HTD) was defined as a time interval between confirmed diagnosis to treatment initiation > 7 days. Results: We observed a median TDD of 55 days (range: 7-136 days) in the public sector and of 92 days (11-380 days) in the private sector. Long TDD in the private sector was significantly associated with middle-higher socio-economic status (Risk Ratio (RR): 2;95% CI: 1.3-3). The reasons reported from the private sector for long TDD were suspect TB patients not advised for sputum examination (RR: 42; 95% CI:2.6-660), practise of self-medication (RR: 17.4; 95% CI: 1.1-267), or lack of awareness (RR: 9.7;95% CI: 0.6-145). The median HTD in the public sector was 3 days (range: 0-14 days), and in the private sector, 2 days (range: 0-11 days) (non-significant difference). Conclusions: Long TDD in private sector may be improved through sputum referral for all suspect TB cases and better education to all regarding TB.

Keywords: diagnosis delay, treatment delay, privatesector, public sector

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Authors: Marco Avila Lopez, Hasnae Ait-Douchi, Silvia De Los Santos, Badr Eddine Lebrouhi, Pamela Ramírez Vidal

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In the context of the energy transition, fuel cell technology has emerged as a solution for harnessing hydrogen energy and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. An in-depth study was conducted on a PEMFC-type fuel cell, with an initiation of an analysis of its operational principles and constituent components. Subsequently, the modelling of the fuel cell was undertaken using the Python programming language, encompassing both steady-state and transient regimes. In the case of the steady-state regime, the physical and electrochemical phenomena occurring within the fuel cell were modelled, with the assumption of uniform temperature throughout all cell compartments. Parametric identification was carried out, resulting in a remarkable mean error of only 1.62% when the model results were compared to experimental data documented in the literature. The dynamic model that was developed enabled the scrutiny of the fuel cell's response in terms of temperature and voltage under varying current conditions.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, dynamic, thermal model, PEMFC

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Authors: Iin Mayasari

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This study aims at exploring the influence of aspects of entrepreneurial marketing on a firm’s performance. Entrepreneurs are not only supported by resources control to obtain sustainable competitive advantage, but it should also be supported by intangible resources. Entrepreneurial marketing provides the opportunity for entrepreneurs to proactively find better ways to create value for desired customers, to create innovation, and to build customer equity. Entrepreneurial marketing has the medium between entrepreneurship and marketing, and serves as an umbrella for many of the emergent perspectives on marketing. It has eight underlying dimensions. They are proactiveness, calculated risk-taking, innovativeness, an opportunity focus, entrepreneurial orientation, resource leveraging, customer intensity, and value creating. The research method of the study was a qualitative study by having an interview with 8 small companies in Kudus Region, the Central Java, Indonesia. The interviewees were the owner and the manager of the company that had the scope work of small business enterprise in wood crafting industry. The interview was related to the implementation of the elements of the entrepreneurial marketing. The result showed that the small business enterprises had implemented the elements of entrepreneurial marketing in supporting their daily activities. The understanding based on the theoretical implementation was well executed by the owner and managers. The problems in managing small business enterprises were related to the full support by the government and the branding management. Furthermore, the innovation process should be improved especially the use of internet to promote the product, to expand the market and to increase the firm’s performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurial marketing, innovativeness, risk taking, opportunity focus

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Authors: M. V. Manoj Kumar, Likewin Thomas, Annappa

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Process mining provides methods and techniques for analyzing event logs recorded in modern information systems that support real-world operations. While analyzing an event-log, state-of-the-art techniques available in process mining believe that the operational process as a static entity (stationary). This is not often the case due to the possibility of occurrence of a phenomenon called concept drift. During the period of execution, the process can experience concept drift and can evolve with respect to any of its associated perspectives exhibiting various patterns-of-change with a different pace. Work presented in this paper discusses the main aspects to consider while addressing concept drift phenomenon and proposes a method for detecting and localizing the sudden concept drifts in control-flow perspective of the process by using features extracted by processing the traces in the process log. Our experimental results are promising in the direction of efficiently detecting and localizing concept drift in the context of process mining research discipline.

Keywords: abrupt drift, concept drift, sudden drift, control-flow perspective, detection and localization, process mining

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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One of the most important factors affecting power plant performance is the reliability of the turbine units operated under different conditions. Reliability directly affects plant availability and performance. Therefore, it is very important to be able to analyze turbine units, as well as power plant system reliability and availability under various operational conditions. In this paper, data related to power station failures are collected and analyzed in detail for all power stations in the state of Kuwait. Failures are characterized and categorized. Reliabilities of various power plants are analyzed and availabilities are quantified. Based on calculated availabilities of all installed power plants, actual power output is estimated. Furthermore, based on the past 15 years of data, power consumption trend is determined and the demand for power in the future is forecasted. Estimated power output is compared to the forecasted demand in order to determine the need for future capacity expansion.

Keywords: power plants, reliability, availability, capacity, preventive maintenance, forecasting

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Authors: Magdalena Escamilla Quintal, Thelma Cetina Canto, Cecilia Aguilar Ortega

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Due to the importance that people represent for companies, the setting of a clear control of the risks that threaten the health and the material and financial resources of workers is essential. It is irrelevant if the company is a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) or a large multinational, or if it is in the construction or service sector. The risk prevention importance is related to a constitutional and human right that all people have; working in a risk-free environment to prevent accidents or illnesses that may influence their quality of life and the tranquility of their family. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the level of psychosocial risks (physical and emotional) of the employees of an SME. The participants of this study were 186 employees of a productive sector SME; 151 men and 35 women, all with an average age of 31.77 years. Their seniority inside the SME was between one month and 19.91 years. Ninety-six workers were from the production area, 28 from the management area, as well as 25 from the sales area and 40 from the supplies area. Ninety-three workers were found in Uman, 78 in Playa del Carmen, 11 in Cancun and seven in Cd. del Carmen. We found a statistically significant relationship between the burnout variable and the engagement and psychosomatic complaints as well as between the variables of sex, burnout and psychosomatic complaints. We can conclude that, for benefit of the SME, that there are low levels of burnout and psychosomatic complaints, the women experience major levels of burnout and the men show major levels of psychosomatic complaints. The findings, contributions, limitations and future proposals will be analyzed.

Keywords: psychosocial risks, SME, burnout, engagement, psychosomatic complaints

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Authors: Eduardo Remirez, Luis Moreno

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The rapid growth of the private satellite launchers sector is leading the space race. Hence, with the privatization of the sector, all the companies are racing for a more efficient and reliant way to set satellites in orbit. Having detected the current needs for power management in the launcher vehicle industry, the Modular Power Bus is proposed as a technology to revolutionize power management in current and future Launcher Vehicles. The MPBus Project is committed to develop a new power bus architecture combining ejectable batteries with the main bus through intelligent nodes. These nodes are able to communicate between them and a battery controller using an improved, data over DC line technology, expected to reduce the total weight in two main areas: improving the use of the batteries and reducing the total weight due to harness. This would result in less weight for each launch stage increasing the operational satellite payload and reducing cost. These features make the system suitable for a number of launchers.

Keywords: modular power bus, Launcher vehicles, ejectable batteries, intelligent nodes

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Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

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The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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Authors: S. Behnam Asl, H. Sadeghi Naeini, L. Sadat Ensaniat, R. Khorshidian, S. Alipour, S. Behnam Asl

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Nowadays, the construction industry is growing, especially among developing countries. Iran also has a critical role in these industries in terms of workers disorders. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) account for 7% of the whole diseases in the society, which makes some limitations. One of the main factors which causes WMSDs is awkward posture. Steel bar bending is considered as one of the prominent performance among construction workers. In this case study, we aimed to find the major tasks of bar benders and the most important risk factors related to it. This study was carried out among twenty workers (18-45 years) as our volunteer samples in some construction sites with less than 6 floors in two regions of Tehran municipality. The data was gathered through in depth observation, interview and questionnaire. Also postural analysis was done by OWAS method. In another part of study we used NMQ for gathering some data about psychosocial effects of work related disorders. Our findings show that 64% of workers were not aware of work risks, about 59% of workers had troubles in their wrists, hands, especially workers who worked in steel bar bending. In 46% cases lower back pain was in prevalence. Considering gathered data and results, awkward postures and long term tasks and their duration are known as the main risk factors of WMSDs among construction workers, meaning that work-rest schedule and tools design should be reconsidered to make an ergonomic condition for the mentioned workers.

Keywords: bar benders, construction workers, musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), OWAS method

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Authors: I. Pelizzoni, C. Cavallini, I. Salvaderi, F. Cavallini

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We present the improvement in writing skills obtained by 94 participants (aged between six and 10 years) with special educational needs through a writing enhancement program based on fluency principles. The study was planned and conducted with a single-subject experimental plan for each of the participants, in order to confirm the results in the literature. These results were obtained using precision teaching (PT) methodology to increase the number of written graphemes per minute in the pre- and post-test, by curriculum based measurement (CBM). Results indicated an increase in the number of written graphemes for all participants. The average overall duration of the intervention is 144 minutes in five months of treatment. These considerations have been analyzed taking account of the complexity of the implementation of measurement systems in real operational contexts (an Italian learning center) and important aspects of replicability and cost-effectiveness of such interventions.

Keywords: curriculum based measurement, precision teaching, writing skill, Italian learning center

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Authors: B.S. Roopa

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Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of concomitant use of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs and GPDs in recommended dose and frequency as prophylaxis. And also to know the association between risk factors and prescription of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs. Methods: Study was a prospective, observational, cross-sectional survey. Data from patients with prescription of NSAIDs at the out-patient departments of secondary care Hospital, Nilgiris, India were collected in a specially designed proforma for a period of 45 days. Analysis using χ2 tests for discrete variables. Factors that might be associated with prescription of GPD with NSIADs were assessed in multiple logistic regression models. Results: Three hundred and three patients were included in this study, and the rate of GPD prescription was 89.1%. Most of the patients received H2-receptor antagonist, and, to a lesser degree, antacid and proton pump inhibitor. Patients with history of GI ulcer/bleeding were much more likely to be co-prescribed GPD than those who had no history of GI disorders .Compared with patients who were managed in general outpatient clinic, those managed in Secondary care hospital in Nilgrisis, India were more likely to receive GPD. Conclusions: The prescription rate of GPD with NSAIDs is high. Patients were prescribed with H2RA with dose of 150mg twice daily, which are not effective in reducing the risk of NSAIDs induced gastric ulcer. Only the frequency of NSAIDs prescription was considered significant determinant for the co-prescription with GPAs in patients who are < 65 years and ≥ 65 years old.

Keywords: gastro protective agents, non steridol anti inlfammatory agents

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Authors: Abbas Sedighinejad, Hossein Khoshrang, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ashraf, Mostafa Saeedinia, Gelareh Biazar, Zahra Atrkarroushan, Mahdi Ajdadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an alarming attack broke out in China and spread rapidly worldwide. Objectives: Based on a theory indicating the correlation between some viral diseases and blood types, we investigated the relationship between blood groups and coronavirus infection risk in Guilan Province, Iran. Methods: Retrospectively, all the files of the admitted patients with suspected COVID-19, in peak conditions of the disease between March 1 and May 30, 2020, were reviewed using the Census method. The required data, including epidemiological and clinical information and outcomes, were obtained from electronic records. Results: A total of 249 cases were analyzed, of whom 109 were collected from governmental centers, and the rest were collected from private hospitals. The most common co-morbidity was diabetes with 71 (37.6%) cases and the main symptom at the admission time was dyspnea with 170 (24.5%) cases. Of the total patients, 155 (62.2%) were discharged, and the rest died. The most common blood group among our patients was O Rh-positive with 91 (36.5%) cases. No meaningful correlation was found between outcomes and blood groups in terms of ABO types (P = 0.89) or Rh factor (P = 0.456). The Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the general population (P = 0.038). Conclusions: We found that the Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the healthy individuals. However, no correlation was observed between the groups regarding ABO typing.

Keywords: ABO blood group, COVID 19, association, personal protection

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Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Pariya Gholipor, Elmira Hafez

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The present study aimed to investigate and compare the characteristics of entrepreneurship among students in senior secondary schools in the academic year 2008-2009 in Tabriz city. Research employed survey method respectively. The study population consisted of all students in the senior branch of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational (1033 patients) were included. Sample size of 493 was calculated according to Morgan table. Sampling method was random cluster and stratified sampling. Data collected by researcher made questionnaire based on the theory of MC clleland (1963) and Brvkhavs (1980). These tools would indicators be for achievement, Independence, disposition, creativity, risk-taking, self-control, tolerance for ambiguity, team work approach in the future. To determine the psychometric properties of the questionnaire, content validity of the survey was approved by relevant experts. In addition, to estimate the internal consistency of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated for 84% of total inventory. Collected data Using mean, standard deviation and were analyzed by ANOVA. The results showed that there is a significant difference between students' entrepreneurial potential fields of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational level (0/01).

Keywords: entrepreneurship, achievement motivation, risk taking, creativity, self-control, independence, tolerance of ambiguity, foresight

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

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Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Panaya Sudta, Prachya Bumrungkun

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The paper focuses on the development of a system that combines Internet of Things (IoT) technologies and deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection in residential Electric Vehicle (EV) charging in smart cities. With the increasing number of EVs, ensuring efficient and reliable charging systems has become crucial. The aim of this research is to develop an integrated IoT and deep learning system for detecting anomalies in residential EV charging and enhancing EV load profiling and event detection in smart cities. This approach utilizes IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras to collect thermal images and household EV charging profiles from the database of Thailand utility, subsequently transmitting this data to a cloud database for comprehensive analysis. The methodology includes the use of advanced deep learning techniques such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras are used to collect thermal images and EV charging profiles. The data is transmitted to a cloud database for comprehensive analysis. The researchers also utilize feature-based Gaussian mixture models for EV load profiling and event detection. Moreover, the research findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed system in detecting anomalies and critical profiles in EV charging behavior. The system provides timely alarms to users regarding potential issues and categorizes the severity of detected problems based on a health index for each charging device. The system also outperforms existing models in event detection accuracy. This research contributes to the field by showcasing the potential of integrating IoT and deep learning techniques in managing residential EV charging in smart cities. The system ensures operational safety and efficiency while also promoting sustainable energy management. The data is collected using IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras and is stored in a cloud database for analysis. The collected data is then analyzed using RNN, LSTM, and feature-based Gaussian mixture models. The approach includes both EV load profiling and event detection, utilizing a feature-based Gaussian mixture model. This comprehensive method aids in identifying unique power consumption patterns among EV owners and outperforms existing models in event detection accuracy. In summary, the research concludes that integrating IoT and deep learning techniques can effectively detect anomalies in residential EV charging and enhance EV load profiling and event detection accuracy. The developed system ensures operational safety and efficiency, contributing to sustainable energy management in smart cities.

Keywords: cloud computing framework, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory, Iot, EV charging, smart grids

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Authors: Darynne Madison Dela Gente, Panayiota Courelli

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Similarities in behavior between perpetrators of school violence and those with a parent in prison raise concern when considering the root causes of a student’s violent behavior. Dealing with parental incarceration is highly consequential on a student’s emotional well-being and may cause aggressive behavior that can lead to them becoming a perpetrator of school violence. These students are more likely to have interpersonal issues, antisocial tendencies, and a hostile demeanor, which are factors that closely align with indicators of an offender of violence. Developmental risk factors of parental incarceration are heavily understudied and often overlooked. This literature review aims to analyze the correlation between having a parent in prison and exhibiting physical or verbal aggression in a school environment. Furthermore, it strives to bring awareness to the inconsistencies in existing research and encourage a greater depth of study of the behavioral impacts, specifically in an academic setting. Furthermore, it will elaborate on the effectiveness of current intervention programs, such as Project Avary, Hope House, Kids Mates Inc., and Girl Scouts Beyond Bars, which provide immense support, as well as proposed methods of implementation in a school environment. Creating a space for these students to cope ultimately aids in the prevention of violent behaviors and intergenerational incarceration. Access to intervention programs, especially in schools located in areas with high rates of incarceration, would greatly reduce the risk of these students becoming perpetrators of school violence.

Keywords: adolescent behavior, adolescent mental health, parental incarceration, school violence prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Unexpected operational events or abnormalities of industrial processes have a serious impact on the quality of final product of interest. In terms of statistical process control, fault detection and diagnosis of processes is one of the essential tasks needed to run the process safely. In this work, nonlinear representation of process measurement data is presented and evaluated using a simulation process. The effect of using different representation methods on the diagnosis performance is tested in terms of computational efficiency and data handling. The results have shown that the nonlinear representation technique produced more reliable diagnosis results and outperforms linear methods. The use of data filtering step improved computational speed and diagnosis performance for test data sets. The presented scheme is different from existing ones in that it attempts to extract the fault pattern in the reduced space, not in the original process variable space. Thus this scheme helps to reduce the sensitivity of empirical models to noise.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, nonlinear technique, process data, reduced spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 247