Search results for: second-order effects
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10505

Search results for: second-order effects

8555 The Confiscation of Ill-Gotten Gains in Pollution: The Taiwan Experience and the Interaction between Economic Analysis of Law and Environmental Economics Perspectives

Authors: Chiang-Lead Woo

Abstract:

In reply to serious environmental problems, the Taiwan government quickly adjusted some articles to suit the needs of environmental protection recently, such as the amendment to article 190-1 of the Taiwan Criminal Code. The transfer of legislation comes as an improvement which canceled the limitation of ‘endangering public safety’. At the same time, the article 190-1 goes from accumulative concrete offense to abstract crime of danger. Thus, the public looks forward to whether environmental crime following the imposition of fines or penalties works efficiently in anti-pollution by the deterrent effects. However, according to the addition to article 38-2 of the Taiwan Criminal Code, the confiscation system seems controversial legislation to restrain ill-gotten gains. Most prior studies focused on comparisons with the Administrative Penalty Law and the Criminal Code in environmental issue in Taiwan; recently, more and more studies emphasize calculations on ill-gotten gains. Hence, this paper try to examine the deterrent effect in environmental crime by economic analysis of law and environmental economics perspective. This analysis shows that only if there is an extremely high probability (equal to 100 percent) of an environmental crime case being prosecuted criminally by Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency, the deterrent effects will work. Therefore, this paper suggests deliberating the confiscation system from supplementing the System of Environmental and Economic Accounting, reasonable deterrent fines, input management, real-time system for detection of pollution, and whistleblower system, environmental education, and modernization of law.

Keywords: confiscation, ecosystem services, environmental crime, ill-gotten gains, the deterrent effect, the system of environmental and economic accounting

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8554 Effect of the Velocity Resistance Training on Muscular Fitness and Functional Performance in Older Women

Authors: Jairo Alejandro Fernandez Ortega

Abstract:

Objective: Regarding effects of training velocity on strength in the functional condition of older adults controversy exists. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a twelve-week strength training program (PE) performed at high speed (GAV) versus a traditionally executed program (GBV), on functional performance, maximum strength and muscle power in a group of older adult women. Methodology: 86 women aged between 60-81 years participated voluntarily in the study and were assigned randomly to the GAV (three series at 40% 1RM at maximum speed, with maximum losses of 10% speed) or to the GBV (three series with three sets at 70% of 1RM). Both groups performed three weekly trainings. The maximum strength of upper and lower limbs (1RM), prehensile strength, walking speed, maximum power, mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and functional performance (senior fitness test) were evaluated before and after the PE. Results: Significant improvements were observed (p < 0.05) in all the tests in the two groups after the twelve weeks of training. However, the results of GAV were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of the GBV, in the tests of agility and dynamic equilibrium, stationary walking, sitting and standing, walking speed over 4 and 6 meters, MPV and peak power. In the tests of maximum strength and prehensile force, the differences were not significant. Conclusion: Strength training performed at high speeds seems to have a better effect on functional performance and muscle power than strength training performed at low speed.

Keywords: power training, resistance exercise, aging, strength, physical performance, high-velocity, resistance training

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8553 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Effects and What Answers?

Authors: Abdoulahad Allamine

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate variability on agriculture and food security in 43 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. We use for this purpose the data from BADC bases, UNCTAD, and WDI FAOSTAT to estimate a VAR model on panel data. The sample is divided into three (03) agro-climatic zones, more explicitly the equatorial zone, the Sahel region and the semi-arid zone. This allows to highlight the differential impacts sustained by countries and appropriate responses to each group of countries. The results show that the sharp fluctuations in the volume of rainfall negatively affect agriculture and food security of countries in the equatorial zone, with heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the Sahel region. However, countries with low temperatures and low rainfall are the least affected. The hedging policies against the risks of climate variability must be more active in the first two groups of countries. On this basis and in general, we recommend integration of agricultural policies between countries is done to reduce the effects of climate variability on agriculture and food security. It would be logical to encourage regional and international closer collaboration on the development and dissemination of improved varieties, ecological intensification, and management of biotic and abiotic stresses facing these climate variability to sustainably increase food production. Small farmers also need training in agricultural risk hedging techniques related to climate variations; this requires an increase in state budgets allocated to agriculture.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, climate variability, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa, VAR on panel data

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8552 The Effects of Collaborative Reflection and Class Observation on Improving the Quality of Teacher-Training Courses

Authors: Somayeh Sharifi

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of collaborative reflection and class observation on improving the quality of teacher training courses and the students reading comprehension skills. 13 inexperienced English teachers teaching elementary courses that were at the same level of proficiency were chosen. Thirteen participants were allocated in two groups, with 7 teachers in the experimental group and the other 6 teachers in the control group. Since two groups were not selected randomly, this study is a form of quasi-experimental research. In addition to a 3-day teacher training course for both groups, teachers in experimental group recorded and observed 20 sessions of their own classes and 30 sessions of experienced teachers’ class and participated in 12 meetings -3 month once a week- in which teachers shared any event that they found interesting during observations and their own teaching and compare it with strategies that they learned in teacher training courses. In contrast, the control group did not engage in any process of observation and collaboration. In order to test students' performance in English before and after the treatment, a Key English Test (KET) was employed to check students' reading skill. The result of the test shows that there is not a significant difference in mean of scores in KET pretest in and, since they are close to each other. However by considering mean and median of posttest in both classes we perceive that although both control and experimental group students' proficiency in English enhanced, there was a significant difference in experimental group students' final scores before and after treatment.

Keywords: collaborative reflection, reading comprehension, teacher training courses, key English test (KET)

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8551 Assessing the Effects of Land Use Spatial Structure on Urban Heat Island Using New Launched Remote Sensing in Shenzhen, China

Authors: Kai Liua, Hongbo Sua, Weimin Wangb, Hong Liangb

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Urban heat island (UHI) has attracted attention around the world since they profoundly affect human life and climatological. Better understanding the effects of landscape pattern on UHI is crucial for improving the ecological security and sustainability of cities. This study aims to investigate how landscape composition and configuration would affect UHI in Shenzhen, China, based on the analysis of land surface temperature (LST) in relation landscape metrics, mainly with the aid of three new satellite sensors launched by China. HJ-1B satellite system was utilized to estimate surface temperature and comprehensively explore the urban thermal spatial pattern. The landscape metrics of the high spatial resolution remote sensing satellites (GF-1 and ZY-3) were compared and analyzed to validate the performance of the new launched satellite sensors. Results show that the mean LST is correlated with main landscape metrics involving class-based metrics and landscape-based metrics, suggesting that the landscape composition and the spatial configuration both influence UHI. These relationships also reveal that urban green has a significant effect in mitigating UHI in Shenzhen due to its homogeneous spatial distribution and large spatial extent. Overall, our study not only confirm the applicability and effectiveness of the HJ-1B, GF-1 and ZY-3 satellite system for studying UHI but also reveal the impacts of the urban spatial structure on UHI, which is meaningful for the planning and management of the urban environment.

Keywords: urban heat island, Shenzhen, new remote sensing sensor, remote sensing satellites

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8550 Consequential Effects of Coal Utilization on Urban Water Supply Sources – a Study of Ajali River in Enugu State Nigeria

Authors: Enebe Christian Chukwudi

Abstract:

Water bodies around the world notably underground water, ground water, rivers, streams, and seas, face degradation of their water quality as a result of activities associated with coal utilization including coal mining, coal processing, coal burning, waste storage and thermal pollution from coal plants which tend to contaminate these water bodies. This contamination results from heavy metals, presence of sulphate and iron, dissolved solids, mercury and other toxins contained in coal ash, sludge, and coal waste. These wastes sometimes find their way to sources of urban water supply and contaminate them. A major problem encountered in the supply of potable water to Enugu municipality is the contamination of Ajali River, the source of water supply to Enugu municipal by coal waste. Hydro geochemical analysis of Ajali water samples indicate high sulphate and iron content, high total dissolved solids(TDS), low pH (acidity values) and significant hardness in addition to presence of heavy metals, mercury, and other toxins. This is indicative of the following remedial measures: I. Proper disposal of mine wastes at designated disposal sites that are suitably prepared. II. Proper water treatment and III. Reduction of coal related contaminants taking advantage of clean coal technology.

Keywords: effects, coal, utilization, water quality, sources, waste, contamination, treatment

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8549 Verification of the Necessity of Maintenance Anesthesia with Isoflurane after Induction with Tiletamine-Zolazepam in Dogs Using the Dixon's up-and-down Method

Authors: Sonia Lachowska, Agnieszka Antonczyk, Joanna Tunikowska, Pawel Kucharski, Bartlomiej Liszka

Abstract:

Isoflurane is one of the most commonly used anaesthetic gases in veterinary medicine. Due to its numerous side effects, intravenous anaesthesia is more often used. The combination of tiletamine with zolazepam has proved to be a safe and pharmacologically beneficial combination. Analgesic effect, fast induction time, effective myorelaxation, and smooth recovery are the main advantages of this combination of drugs. In the following study, the authors verified the necessity of isoflurane to maintain anaesthesia in dogs after the use of tiletamine-zolazepam for induction. 12 dogs were selected to the group with the inclusion criteria: ASA (American Society of Anaesthesiology) I or II. Each dog received premedication intramuscularly with medetomidine-butorfanol (10 μg/kg, 0,1 mg/kg respectively). 15 minutes from premedication, preoxygenation lasting 5 minutes was started. Anaesthesia was induced with tiletamine-zolazepam at the dose of 5 mg/kg. Then the dogs were intubated and anaesthesia was maintained with isoflurane. Initially, MAC (Minimum Alveolar Concentration) was set to 0.7 vol.%. After 15 minutes equilibration, MAC was determined using Dixon’s up-and-down method. Painful stimulation including compressions of paw pad, phalange, groin area, and clamping Backhaus on skin. Hemodynamic and ventilation parameters were measured and noted in 2 minutes intervals. In this method, the positive or negative response to the noxious stimulus is estimated and then used to determine the concentration of isoflurane for next patient. The response is only assessed once in each patient. The results show that isoflurane is not necessary to maintain anaesthesia after tiletamine-zolazepam induction. This is clinically important because the side effects resulting from using isoflurane are eliminated.

Keywords: anaesthesia, dog, Isoflurane, The Dixon's up-and-down method, Tiletamine, Zolazepam

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8548 Growth Stimulating Effects of Aspilia africana Fed to Female Pseudo-Ruminant Herbivores (Rabbits) at Different Physiological States

Authors: Nseabasi Nsikakabasi Etim

Abstract:

In recent times, there has been a significant shortfall in between the production and supply of animal protein to meet the ever increasing population. To meet the increasing demand for animal protein, there is a need to focus attention on the production of livestock whose nutritional requirement does not put much strain on the limited sources of feed ingredients to which men subscribe. An example of such livestock is the rabbit. Rabbit is a pseudo-ruminant herbivore which utilizes much undigested and unabsorbed feed materials as sources of nutrient for maintenance and production. Thus, this study was conducted to investigate the effects of feeding Aspilia africana as forage on the growth rates of female pseudo-ruminant herbivores (rabbits) at different physiological states. Thirty (30) Dutch breed rabbit does of 5–6 months of age were used for the experiment which was conducted in a completely randomized design for four months. The rabbits were divided into three treatment groups, ten does per treatment group; which consisted of mixed forages (Centrosema pubescent (200g), Panicum maximum (200g) and Ipomea batatas leaves (100g) without Aspilia africana (T1; control), fresh Aspilia africana (500g/dose/day) (T2) and wilted Aspilia africana (500g/dose/day) (T3). Rabbits in all treatment groups received the same concentrate (300g/animal/day) throughout the period of the study and mixed forages from the commencement of the experiment till the does kindled. After parturition, fresh and wilted Aspilia africana were introduced in treatments 2 and three respectively, whereas the control group continued on mixed forages throughout the study. The result of the study revealed that the initial average body weight of the rabbit does was 1.74kg. At mating and gestation periods, the body weights of the does in T2 was significantly higher (P<0.05) than the rest. There were no significant differences (P<0.05) in the body weights of does at kindling between the various treatment groups. During the physiological states of lactation, weaning and re-mating, the control group (T1) had significantly lower body weight than those of the treated groups (T2 and T3). Furthermore, T2 had significantly higher body weight than T3. The study revealed that Aspilia africana; mainly the fresh leaves have greater growth stimulating effects when fed to pseudo-ruminants (rabbits), thereby enhancing body weights of does during lactation and weaning.

Keywords: Aspilia africana, herbivores, pseudo-ruminants, physiological states

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8547 Investigations of Metals and Metal-Antibrowning Agent Effects on Polyphenol Oxidase Activity from Red Poppy Leaf

Authors: Gulnur Arabaci

Abstract:

Heavy metals are one of the major groups of contaminants in the environment and many of them are toxic even at very low concentration in plants and animals. However, some metals play important roles in the biological function of many enzymes in living organisms. Metals such as zinc, iron, and cooper are important for survival and activity of enzymes in plants, however heavy metals can inhibit enzyme which is responsible for defense system of plants. Polyphenol oxidase (PPO) is a copper-containing metalloenzyme which is responsible for enzymatic browning reaction of plants. Enzymatic browning is a major problem for the handling of vegetables and fruits in food industry. It can be increased and effected with many different futures such as metals in the nature and ground. In the present work, PPO was isolated and characterized from green leaves of red poppy plant (Papaver rhoeas). Then, the effect of some known antibrowning agents which can form complexes with metals and metals were investigated on the red poppy PPO activity. The results showed that glutathione was the most potent inhibitory effect on PPO activity. Cu(II) and Fe(II) metals increased the enzyme activities however, Sn(II) had the maximum inhibitory effect and Zn(II) and Pb(II) had no significant effect on the enzyme activity. In order to reduce the effect of heavy metals, the effects of metal-antibrowning agent complexes on the PPO activity were determined. EDTA and metal complexes had no significant effect on the enzyme. L-ascorbic acid and metal complexes decreased but L-ascorbic acid-Cu(II)-complex had no effect. Glutathione–metal complexes had the best inhibitory effect on Red poppy leaf PPO activity.

Keywords: inhibition, metal, red poppy, poly phenol oxidase (PPO)

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8546 Academic Achievement Differences in Grandiose and Vulnerable Narcissists and the Mediating Effects of Self-Esteem and Self-Efficacy

Authors: Amber Dummett, Efstathia Tzemou

Abstract:

Narcissism is a personality trait characterized by selfishness, entitlement, and superiority. Narcissism is split into two subtypes, grandiose narcissism (GN) and vulnerable narcissism (VN). Grandiose narcissists are extraverted and arrogant, while vulnerable narcissists are introverted and insecure. This study investigates the psychological mechanisms that lead to differences in academic achievement (AA) between grandiose and vulnerable narcissists, specifically the mediating effects of self-esteem and self-efficacy. While narcissism is considered to be a negative trait, one of the Dark Triads, GN, has been found to have some benefits; therefore, this study considers if better AA is one of them. Moreover, further research into VN is essential to fully compare and contrast it with GN. We hypothesize that grandiose narcissists achieve higher marks due to having high self-esteem and self-efficacy. In comparison, we hypothesize that vulnerable narcissists underperform and achieve lower marks due to having low self-esteem and self-efficacy. Two online surveys were distributed to undergraduate university students. The first was a collection of scales measuring the mentioned dimensions and semester one AA, and the second investigated end of year AA. Sequential mediation analyses were conducted using the gathered data. Our analysis shows that neither self-esteem nor self-efficacy mediates the relationship between GN and AA. GN positively predicts self-esteem but has no relationship with self-efficacy. Self-esteem does not mediate the relationship between VN and AA. VN has a negative indirect effect on AA via self-efficacy, and VN negatively predicts self-esteem. Self-efficacy positively predicts AA. GN does not affect AA through the mediation of self-esteem and then self-efficacy, and neither does VN in this way. Overall, having grandiose or vulnerable narcissistic traits does not affect students’ AA. However, being highly efficacious does lead to academic success; therefore, universities should employ methods to improve the self-efficacy of their students.

Keywords: academic achievement, grandiose narcissism, self-efficacy, self-esteem, vulnerable narcissism

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8545 Effects of Heat Treatment on the Mechanical Properties of Kenaf Fiber

Authors: Paulo Teodoro De Luna Carada, Toru Fujii, Kazuya Okubo

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Natural fibers have wide variety of uses (e.g., rope, paper, and building materials). One specific application of it is in the field of composite materials (i.e., green composites). Huge amount of research are being done in this field due to rising concerns in the harmful effects of synthetic materials to the environment. There are several natural fibers used in this field, one of which can be extracted from a plant called kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.). Kenaf fiber is regarded as a good alternative because the plant is easy to grow and the fiber is easy to extract. Additionally, it has good properties. Treatments, which are classified as mechanical or chemical in nature, can be done in order to improve the properties of the fiber. The aim of this study is to assess the effects of heat treatment in kenaf fiber. It specifically aims to observe the effect in the tensile strength and modulus of the fiber. Kenaf fiber bundles with an average diameter of at most 100μm was used for this purpose. Heat treatment was done using a constant temperature oven with the following heating temperatures: (1) 160̊C, (2) 180̊C, and (3) 200̊C for a duration of one hour. As a basis for comparison, tensile test was first done to kenaf fibers without any heat treatment. For every heating temperature, three groups of samples were prepared. Two groups of which were for doing tensile test (one group was tested right after heat treatment while the remaining group was kept inside a closed container with relative humidity of at least 95% for two days). The third group was used to observe how much moisture the treated fiber will absorb when it is enclosed in a high moisture environment for two days. The results showed that kenaf fiber can retain its tensile strength when heated up to a temperature of 160̊C. However, when heated at a temperature of about 180̊C or higher, the tensile strength decreases significantly. The same behavior was observed for the tensile modulus of the fiber. Additionally, the fibers which were stored for two days absorbed nearly the same amount of moisture (about 20% of the dried weight) regardless of the heating temperature. Heat treatment might have damaged the fiber in some way. Additional test was done in order to see if the damage due to heat treatment is attributed to changes in the viscoelastic property of the fiber. The findings showed that kenaf fibers can be heated for at most 160̊C to attain good tensile strength and modulus. Additionally, heating the fiber at high temperature (>180̊C) causes changes in its viscoelastic property. The results of this study is significant for processes which requires heat treatment not only in kenaf fiber but might also be helpful for natural fibers in general.

Keywords: heat treatment, kenaf fiber, natural fiber, mechanical properties

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8544 Assessment of Airborne PM0.5 Mutagenic and Genotoxic Effects in Five Different Italian Cities: The MAPEC_LIFE Project

Authors: T. Schilirò, S. Bonetta, S. Bonetta, E. Ceretti, D. Feretti, I. Zerbini, V. Romanazzi, S. Levorato, T. Salvatori, S. Vannini, M. Verani, C. Pignata, F. Bagordo, G. Gilli, S. Bonizzoni, A. Bonetti, E. Carraro, U. Gelatti

Abstract:

Air pollution is one of the most important worldwide health concern. In the last years, in both the US and Europe, new directives and regulations supporting more restrictive pollution limits were published. However, the early effects of air pollution occur, especially for the urban population. Several epidemiological and toxicological studies have documented the remarkable effect of particulate matter (PM) in increasing morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and natural cause mortality. The finest fractions of PM (PM with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm and less) play a major role in causing chronic diseases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has recently classified air pollution and fine PM as carcinogenic to human (1 Group). The structure and composition of PM influence the biological properties of particles. The chemical composition varies with season and region of sampling, photochemical-meteorological conditions and sources of emissions. The aim of the MAPEC (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) study is to evaluate the associations between air pollution and biomarkers of early biological effects in oral mucosa cells of 6-8 year old children recruited from first grade schools. The study was performed in five Italian towns (Brescia, Torino, Lecce, Perugia and Pisa) characterized by different levels of airborne PM (PM10 annual average from 44 µg/m3 measured in Torino to 20 µg/m3 measured in Lecce). Two to five schools for each town were chosen to evaluate the variability of pollution within the same town. Child exposure to urban air pollution was evaluated by collecting ultrafine PM (PM0.5) in the school area, on the same day of biological sampling. PM samples were collected for 72h using a high-volume gravimetric air sampler and glass fiber filters in two different seasons (winter and spring). Gravimetric analysis of the collected filters was performed; PM0.5 organic extracts were chemically analyzed (PAH, Nitro-PAH) and tested on A549 by the Comet assay and Micronucleus test and on Salmonella strains (TA100, TA98, TA98NR and YG1021) by Ames test. Results showed that PM0.5 represents a high variable PM10 percentage (range 19.6-63%). PM10 concentration were generally lower than 50µg/m3 (EU daily limit). All PM0.5 extracts showed a mutagenic effect with TA98 strain (net revertant/m3 range 0.3-1.5) and suggested the presence of indirect mutagens, while lower effect was observed with TA100 strain. The results with the TA98NR and YG1021 strains showed the presence of nitroaromatic compounds as confirmed by the chemical analysis. No genotoxic or oxidative effect of PM0.5 extracts was observed using the comet assay (with/without Fpg enzyme) and micronucleus test except for some sporadic samples. The low biological effect observed could be related to the low level of air pollution observed in this winter sampling associated to a high atmospheric instability. For a greater understanding of the relationship between PM size, composition and biological effects the results obtained in this study suggest to investigate the biological effect of the other PM fractions and in particular of the PM0.5-1 fraction.

Keywords: airborne PM, ames test, comet assay, micronucleus test

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8543 Emotion Expression of the Leader and Collective Efficacy: Pride and Guilt

Authors: Hsiu-Tsu Cho

Abstract:

Collective efficacy refers to a group’s sense of its capacity to complete a task successfully or to reach objectives. Little effort has been expended on investigating the relationship between the emotion expression of a leader and collective efficacy. In this study, we examined the impact of the different emotions and emotion expression of a group leader on collective efficacy and explored whether the emotion–expressive effects differed under conditions of negative and positive emotions. A total of 240 undergraduate and graduate students recruited using Facebook and posters at a university participated in this research. The participants were separated randomly into 80 groups of four persons consisting of three participants and a confederate. They were randomly assigned to one of five conditions in a 2 (pride vs. guilt) × 2 (emotion expression of group leader vs. no emotion expression of group leader) factorial design and a control condition. Each four-person group was instructed to get the reward in a group competition of solving the five-disk Tower of Hanoi puzzle and making decisions on an investment case. We surveyed the participants by employing the emotional measure revised from previous researchers and collective efficacy questionnaire on a 5-point scale. To induce an emotion of pride (or guilt), the experimenter announced whether the group performance was good enough to have a chance of getting the reward (ranking the top or bottom 20% among all groups) after group task. The leader (confederate) could either express or not express a feeling of pride (or guilt) following the instruction according to the assigned condition. To check manipulation of emotion, we added a control condition under which the experimenter revealed no results regarding group performance in maintaining a neutral emotion. One-way ANOVAs and post hoc pairwise comparisons among the three emotion conditions (pride, guilt, and control condition) involved assigning pride and guilt scores (pride: F(1,75) = 32.41, p < .001; guilt: F(1,75) = 6.75, p < .05). The results indicated that manipulations of emotion were successful. A two-way between-measures ANOVA was conducted to examine the predictions of the main effects of emotion types and emotion expression as well as the interaction effect of these two variables on collective efficacy. The experimental findings suggest that pride did not affect collective efficacy (F(1,60) = 1.90, ns.) more than guilt did and that the group leader did not motivate collective efficacy regardless of whether he or she expressed emotion (F(1,60) = .89, ns.). However, the interaction effect of emotion types and emotion expression was statistically significant (F(1,60) = 4.27, p < .05, ω2 = .066); the effects accounted for 6.6% of the variance. Additional results revealed that, under the pride condition, the leader enhanced group efficacy when expressing emotion, whereas, under the guilt condition, an expression of emotion could reduce collective efficacy. Overall, these findings challenge the assumption that the effect of expression emotion are the same on all emotions and suggest that a leader should be cautious when expressing negative emotions toward a group to avoid reducing group effectiveness.

Keywords: collective efficacy, group leader, emotion expression, pride, guilty

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8542 Using Audio-Visual Aids and Computer-Assisted Language Instruction to Overcome Learning Difficulties of Sound System in Students of Special Needs

Authors: Sadeq Al Yaari, Ayman Al Yaari, Adham Al Yaari, Montaha Al Yaari, Aayah Al Yaari, Sajedah Al Yaari

Abstract:

Background & Objectives: Audio-visual aids and computer-assisted language instruction (CALI) effects are strong in teaching language components (sound system, grammatical structures and vocabulary) to students of special needs. To explore the effects of the audio-visual aids and CALI in teaching sound system to this class of students by speech language therapists (SLTs), an experiment has been undertaken to evaluate their performance during their study of the sound system course. Methods: Forty students (males and females) of special needs at al-Malādh school for teaching students of special needs in Dhamar (Yemen) range between 8 and 18 years old underwent this experimental study while they were studying language sound system course. Pre-and-posttests have been administered at the begging and end of the semester. Students' treatment was compared to a similar group (control group) of the same number under the same environment. Whereas the first group was taught using audio-visual aids and CALI, the second was not. Students' performances were linguistically and statistically evaluated. Results & conclusions: Compared with the control group, the treatment group showed significantly higher scores in the posttest (72.32% vs. 31%). Compared with females, males scored higher marks (1421 vs. 1472). Thus, we should take the audio-visual aids and CALI into consideration in teaching sound system to students of special needs.

Keywords: language components, sound system, audio-visual aids, CALI, students, special needs, SLTs

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8541 Nutritional Value and Forage Quality Indicators in Some Rangeland’s Species at Different Vegetation Forms

Authors: Reza Dehghani Bidgoli

Abstract:

Information on different rangeland plants’ nutritive values at various phonological stages is important in rangelands management. This information helps rangeland managers to choose proper grazing times to achieve higher animal performance without detrimental effects on the rangeland vegetations. Effects of various plant parts’ phonological stages and vegetation types on reserve carbohydrates and forage quality indicators were investigated during the 2009 and 2010. Plant samples were collected in a completely randomized block (CRB) design. The species included, grasses (Secale montanum and Festuco ovina), forbs (Lotus corniculatus and Sanguisorba minor), and shrubs (Kochia prosterata and Salsola rigida). Aerial plant parts’ samples were oven-dried at 80oC for 24 hours, then analyzed for soluble carbohydrates, crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), dry matter digestible (DMD), and metabolizable energy (ME). Results showed that plants at the seedling stage had more reserve carbohydrates and from the three vegetation types (grass, forbs, and shrub), forbs contained more soluble carbohydrates compared to the other two (grasses and shrubs). Differences in soluble carbohydrate contents of different species at various phonological stages in 2 years were statistically significant. The forage quality indicators (CP, ADF, DMD, and ME) in different species, in different vegetation types, in the 2 years were statistically significant, except for the CP.

Keywords: grazing, soluble carbohydrate, protein, fiber, metabolizeable energy

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8540 Leasing Revisited: Mastering the Digital Transformation with Traditional Financing

Authors: Tobias Huttche, Marco Canipa-Valdez, Corinne Mühlebach

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This article discusses the role of leasing on the digital transformation process of companies and corresponding economic effects. Based on the traditional mechanisms of leasing, this article focuses in particular on the benefits of leasing as financing instrument with regard to the innovation potential of companies. Practical examples demonstrate how leasing can become an integral part of new business models. Especially, with regard to the digital transformation and corresponding investments in know-how and infrastructure, leasing can play an important role. Furthermore, findings of an empirical survey are presented dealing with the usage of leasing in Switzerland in an international context. The survey shows not only the benefits of leasing against the backdrop of digital transformation but gives guidance on how other countries can benefit from promoting leasing in their legislation and economy. Based on a simulation model for Switzerland, the economic effect of an increase in leasing volume is being calculated. Again, the respective results underline the substantial growth potential. This holds true especially for economies where asset-based lending is rarely used because of a lack of entrepreneurial or private security of the borrower (cash-based financing for developing and emerging countries). Overall, the authors found that leasing using companies are more productive and tend to grow faster than companies using less or none leasing. The positive effects of leasing on emerging digital challenges for companies and entire economies should encourage other countries to facilitate access to leasing as financing instrument by decreasing legal-, tax- and accounting-related requirements in the respective jurisdiction.

Keywords: Cash-Based financing, digital transformation, financing instruments, growth, innovation, leasing

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8539 Effects of Foreign-language Learning on Bilinguals' Production in Both Their Languages

Authors: Natalia Kartushina

Abstract:

Foreign (second) language (L2) learning is highly promoted in modern society. Students are encouraged to study abroad (SA) to achieve the most effective learning outcomes. However, L2 learning has side effects for native language (L1) production, as L1 sounds might show a drift from the L1 norms towards those of the L2, and this, even after a short period of L2 learning. L1 assimilatory drift has been attributed to a strong perceptual association between similar L1 and L2 sounds in the mind of L2 leaners; thus, a change in the production of an L2 target leads to the change in the production of the related L1 sound. However, nowadays, it is quite common that speakers acquire two languages from birth, as, for example, it is the case for many bilingual communities (e.g., Basque and Spanish in the Basque Country). Yet, it remains to be established how FL learning affects native production in individuals who have two native languages, i.e., in simultaneous or very early bilinguals. Does FL learning (here a third language, L3) affect bilinguals’ both languages or only one? What factors determine which of the bilinguals’ languages is more susceptible to change? The current study examines the effects of L3 (English) learning on the production of vowels in the two native languages of simultaneous Spanish-Basque bilingual adolescents enrolled into the Erasmus SA English program. Ten bilingual speakers read five Spanish and Basque consonant-vowel-consonant-vowel words two months before their SA and the next day after their arrival back to Spain. Each word contained the target vowel in the stressed syllable and was repeated five times. Acoustic analyses measuring vowel openness (F1) and backness (F2) were performed. Two possible outcomes were considered. First, we predicted that L3 learning would affect the production of only one language and this would be the language that would be used the most in contact with English during the SA period. This prediction stems from the results of recent studies showing that early bilinguals have separate phonological systems for each of their languages; and that late FL learner (as it is the case of our participants), who tend to use their L1 in language-mixing contexts, have more L2-accented L1 speech. The second possibility stated that L3 learning would affect both of the bilinguals’ languages in line with the studies showing that bilinguals’ L1 and L2 phonologies interact and constantly co-influence each other. The results revealed that speakers who used both languages equally often (balanced users) showed an F1 drift in both languages toward the F1 of the English vowel space. Unbalanced speakers, however, showed a drift only in the less used language. The results are discussed in light of recent studies suggesting that the amount of language use is a strong predictor of the authenticity in speech production with less language use leading to more foreign-accented speech and, eventually, to language attrition.

Keywords: language-contact, multilingualism, phonetic drift, bilinguals' production

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8538 Experimental Investigation of Tip-Speed-Ratio Effects on Wake Dynamics of Horizontal-Axis Wind Turbine

Authors: Paul Bayron, Richard Kelso, Rey Chin

Abstract:

Wind tunnel experiments were performed in the KC closed-circuit wind tunnel in the University of Adelaide to study the influence of tip-speed-ratio (

Keywords: hotwire anemometry, wake dynamics, wind tunnel, wind turbines

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8537 Foaming and Structuring Properties of Chickpea Cooking Water (Aquafaba): Effect of Ingredient Added and Their Particle Size

Authors: Carola Cappa

Abstract:

Chickpea cooking water (known as aquafaba, AF) is a “waste” product having interesting technological properties exploitable for sustainable plant-based food applications that can encounter a larger consumers demand. Different process conditions to obtain AF were defined; the addition of hydrocolloid (i.e., guar gum) and lactic acid to improve the techno-functionalities of aquafaba was explored, and the effects of these ingredients on the foaming properties and the quality of plant-based target confectionery products were investigated. Meringues having a solid foam structure and a simple formulation (i.e., foaming agent and sugar) and chocolate mousse were chosen as target foods. The effects of the sugar particle size reduction on the empirical and fundamental rheological properties of the foaming agent and of the mousse were evaluated. The treatment did not significantly change the viscosity of the system, while the overrun and foam stability were affected by sugar particle size, and mousse with coarse sugar was characterized by a higher consistency, confirming the importance of the particle size of the ingredients on the texture of the final product. This study proved that AF, a recycled “waste” product, possesses interesting techno-functionalities properties further enhanced by adding lactic acid and modulable according to ingredient particle size; these AF results are useable for plant-based food applications.

Keywords: foaming properties, foam stability, foam texture, particle size, acidification, aquafaba

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8536 The Conceptualization of the Term “Feeling Stressed” Among Polyvalent Nursing Students at ISPITS of Rabat-Morocco

Authors: Ktiri Fouad

Abstract:

Objectives: The present study examined how the polyvalent nursing students of the Higher Institute of Nursing Professions and Health Techniques (ISPITS-Rabat-Morocco) conceived the term "feeling stressed.” We checked whether they were referring to a specific type of sensation (emotional, mental, physical) or both or all of them when they said they were stressed at the time they felt it. Materials and methods: A quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted among students of the three years of polyvalent nursing courses. Using a 7-Likert scale, the students were asked to assess their states of stress and the emotional, mental and physical sensations they were experiencing before and after carrying out a mental arithmetic task. An ordinal logistic regression method was used to investigate the association between the states of stress and the 3 types of sensations. Results: 222 polyvalent nursing students out of 307 were included in the experience. Their increased perceived states of stress after carrying out the mental task were found to be significantly associated with emotional distress and mental fatigue and not with physical tiredness. The mental sensation (mental fatigue) was found to have more effects in predicting the likelihood of feeling stressed. In addition, the lower the intensity of emotional or mental sensation, the more likely the students were to experience stress, given that one of both sensations is held constant, whatever the intensity of the physical sensation. We conclude that the polyvalent nursing students refer to mental fatigue and emotional distress and not to physical tiredness when they say they felt stressed, the mental fatigue having more effects. The implications of the study are discussed.

Keywords: feeling stressed”, emotional sensation, mental sensation, physical sensation

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8535 The Friction Of Oil Contaminated Granular Soils; Experimental Study

Authors: Miron A, Tadmor R, Pinkert S

Abstract:

Soil contamination is a pressing environmental concern, drawing considerable focus due to its adverse ecological and health outcomes, and the frequent occurrence of contamination incidents in recent years. The interaction between the oil pollutant and the host soil can alter the mechanical properties of the soil in a manner that can crucially affect engineering challenges associated with the stability of soil systems. The geotechnical investigation of contaminated soils has gained momentum since the Gulf War in the 1990s, when a massive amount of oil was spilled into the ocean. Over recent years, various types of soil contaminations have been studied to understand the impact of pollution type, uncovering the mechanical complexity that arises not just from the pollutant type but also from the properties of the host soil and the interplay between them. This complexity is associated with diametrically opposite effects in different soil types. For instance, while certain oils may enhance the frictional properties of cohesive soils, they can reduce the friction in granular soils. This striking difference can be attributed to the different mechanisms at play: physico-chemical interactions predominate in the former case, whereas lubrication effects are more significant in the latter. this study introduces an empirical law designed to quantify the mechanical effect of oil contamination in granular soils, factoring the properties of both the contaminating oil and the host soil. This law is achieved by comprehensive experimental research that spans a wide array of oil types and soils with unique configurations and morphologies. By integrating these diverse data points, our law facilitates accurate predictions of how oil contamination modifies the frictional characteristics of general granular soils.

Keywords: contaminated soils, lubrication, friction, granular media

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8534 Awareness of Insomnia Caused by Coffee Consumption among Adults in Jazan, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Rama M. Chandika, Fatima A. Elfaki, Abdulrahman A. Alsayegh, Husameldin E. Khalafalla, Emadaldeen A. Alsayed, Hussin M. Hadi, Nasser M. Alhazmy, Fahed A. Aqili, Ahmed H. Al-Hadi

Abstract:

Background: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the second largest country in the Arabian Peninsula and ranks 61st out of 150 countries in terms of coffee consumption. Excessive coffee consumption is associated with the risk of adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to assess awareness of the effects of coffee consumption and its relationship with insomnia among the adult population in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 431 adults in the Jazan region. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to the participants using an online survey. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Statistical Program for the Social Sciences, Version 24.0). Results: Of 431 participants, 377 (87.5%) consumed coffee. Females and married women consumed more coffee than their counterparts (91.3%, P<0.01; 92.8%, P<0.05; respectively), while students consumed coffee (85.2%) less than both the employed and unemployed (P<0.05). The proportion of consumption increased from underweight (79.7%) to normal weight (88.5%) and as high as 91.3% among overweight/obese (P<0.05). More than one-third of the participants (35.5%) preferred drinking coffee at coffee shops. The most preferred coffee was Arabic coffee (40%), and the major reason for drinking coffee was to change their mood (29.7%). More than half of the participants (54.5%) reported that coffee caused insomnia (P<0.01). Conclusion: Awareness-raising initiatives for the negative effects of excessive coffee consumption are important. Longitudinal studies are required in the next stage of research to identify trends such as the motivations and profiles of Saudi coffee drinkers.

Keywords: Arabic coffee, coffee consumption, chi-square test, insomnia

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8533 Evaluation of Two Earliness Cotton Genotypes in Three Ecological Regions

Authors: Gholamhossein Hosseini

Abstract:

Two earliness cotton genotypes I and II, which had been developed by hybridization and backcross methods between sindise-80 as an early maturing gene parent and two other lines i.e. Red leaf and Bulgare-557 as a second parent, are subjected to different environmental conditions. The early maturing genotypes with coded names of I and II were compared with four native cotton cultivars in randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four replications in three ecological regions of Iran from 2016-2017. Two early maturing genotypes along with four native cultivars viz. Varamin, Oltan, Sahel and Arya were planted in Agricultural Research Station of Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar for evaluation. Earliness data were collected for six treatments during two years in the three regions except missing data for the second year of Kashmar. Therefore, missed data were estimated and imputed. For testing the homogeneity of error variances, each experiment at a given location or year is analyzed separately using Hartley and Bartlett’s Chi-square tests and both tests confirmed homogeneity of variance. Combined analysis of variance showed that genotypes I and II were superior in Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar regions. Earliness means and their interaction effects were compared with Duncan’s multiple range tests. Finally combined analysis of variance showed that genotypes I and II were superior in Varamin, Moghan and Kashmar regions. Earliness means and their interaction effects are compared with Duncan’s multiple range tests.

Keywords: cotton, combined, analysis, earliness

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8532 Effects of Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSC) in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) Lung Remodeling

Authors: Diana Islam, Juan Fang, Vito Fanelli, Bing Han, Julie Khang, Jianfeng Wu, Arthur S. Slutsky, Haibo Zhang

Abstract:

Introduction: MSC delivery in preclinical models of ARDS has demonstrated significant improvements in lung function and recovery from acute injury. However, the role of MSC delivery in ARDS associated pulmonary fibrosis is not well understood. Some animal studies using bleomycin, asbestos, and silica-induced pulmonary fibrosis show that MSC delivery can suppress fibrosis. While other animal studies using radiation induced pulmonary fibrosis, liver, and kidney fibrosis models show that MSC delivery can contribute to fibrosis. Hypothesis: The beneficial and deleterious effects of MSC in ARDS are modulated by the lung microenvironment at the time of MSC delivery. Methods: To induce ARDS a two-hit mouse model of Hydrochloric acid (HCl) aspiration (day 0) and mechanical ventilation (MV) (day 2) was used. HCl and injurious MV generated fibrosis within 14-28 days. 0.5x106 mouse MSCs were delivered (via both intratracheal and intravenous routes) either in the active inflammatory phase (day 2) or during the remodeling phase (day 14) of ARDS (mouse fibroblasts or PBS used as a control). Lung injury accessed using inflammation score and elastance measurement. Pulmonary fibrosis was accessed using histological score, tissue collagen level, and collagen expression. In addition alveolar epithelial (E) and mesenchymal (M) marker expression profile was also measured. All measurements were taken at day 2, 14, and 28. Results: MSC delivery 2 days after HCl exacerbated lung injury and fibrosis compared to HCl alone, while the day 14 delivery showed protective effects. However in the absence of HCl, MSC significantly reduced the injurious MV-induced fibrosis. HCl injury suppressed E markers and up-regulated M markers. MSC delivery 2 days after HCl further amplified M marker expression, indicating their role in myofibroblast proliferation/activation. While with 14-day delivery E marker up-regulation was observed indicating their role in epithelial restoration. Conclusions: Early MSC delivery can be protective of injurious MV. Late MSC delivery during repair phase may also aid in recovery. However, early MSC delivery during the exudative inflammatory phase of HCl-induced ARDS can result in pro-fibrotic profiles. It is critical to understand the interaction between MSC and the lung microenvironment before MSC-based therapies are utilized for ARDS.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mesenchymal stem cells (MSC), hydrochloric acid (HCl), mechanical ventilation (MV)

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8531 Effects of Continuous Training on Anthropometric Characteristics of Adolescents in Kano, Nigeria

Authors: Emmanuel S. Adeyanju

Abstract:

This study assessed the effects of continuous training on anthropometric characteristics of adolescents in Kano, Nigeria. The anthropometric measures of per cent body fat (%BF), body mass index (BMI), conicity index (CI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were selected because of their roles in increased adiposity and favourable cardiovascular disease (CVD) factor profiles in children and adolescence. The international standards and procedures were followed in all the measurements. A total of thirty (30) subjects (M=15; F=15), selected at random, were divided into two groups; one training (M=10; F=10) and the other control (M=5; F=5). Both groups were tested before training, at six (6) and 12 weeks in all the listed variables. The training group had 12 weeks continuous training which involved running round the standard 400 m track of the college following standard procedures; while the control group did not. The findings revealed significant sex-specific reductions in %BF (F=610.482 ˂ 0.05), BMI (F=73.860 ˂ 0.05), WHR (F=49.756 ˂ 0.05); however, no significant training effect on CI (F=1.855 ˃ 0.05) and WHR (F=1.956 ˃ 0.05) was found. Greater modifications found in females than in males (except in CI and WHR) due to training were probably related to their initial level of fitness and enzymatic modifications at subcellular level during training. The result also revealed significant relationship between the modifications in %BF, BMI and WHR but failed to establish any between CI and other adiposity measures. Thus, to avert the consequences of obesity and overweight, the declining fitness level of adolescents should be checked by ensuring they engaged in regular moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) programmes. Such a childhood habit of exercise developed early in life will have a carry-over value into adult life and improve the quality of adult population.

Keywords: adiposity, anthropometry, conicity, continuous training

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8530 Study of Therapeutic Potential of Dodonaea Viscosa Against Rheumatoid Arthritis in Collagen Induced Arthritic Mouse Model

Authors: Peter John, Zainab Ali, Attya Bhatti

Abstract:

Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is a systemic autoimmune inflammatory disease that primarily affects the joints. RA is caused in many cases by the interaction between genes and environmental factors, including tobacco, that primarily involves synovial joints. It typically starts in small peripheral joints, is usually symmetric, and progresses to involve proximal joints if left untreated. The prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis varies substantially around the globe, ranging from 0·25% to 1%.3. Rheumatoid arthritis can affect individuals of any age, with an increased incidence in people older than 40 years. Women are affected two to three times more frequently than men. The present work involved evaluating the toxicity and therapeutic potential of Dodonaea viscosa in a collagen-induced arthritic mouse model. Chemical analysis exhibited that Dodonaea viscosa has high levels of beneficial compounds, including phenols, flavonoids, and other phytochemicals. The Dodonaea viscosa showed significant antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-arthritic potential without toxic effects. Arthritic mice treated with Dodonaea viscosa showed reduced levels of rheumatoid factor and paw edema, while no significant effects on spleen indices and radiological examination of paws were found compared to control untreated arthritic mice. In summary, the Dodonaea viscosa treatment results in improvement in Arthritic Mice Model for which further studies are required.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, dodonaea viscisa, anti-inflammatory, anti-rheumatic

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8529 Effects of Waist-to-Hip Ratio and Visceral Fat Measurements Improvement on Offshore Petrochemical Company Shift Employees' Work Efficiency

Authors: Essam Amerian

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of improving waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and visceral fat components on the health of shift workers in an offshore petrochemical company. A total of 100 male shift workers participated in the study, with an average age of 40.5 years and an average BMI of 28.2 kg/m². The study employed a randomized controlled trial design, with participants assigned to either an intervention group or a control group. The intervention group received a 12-week program that included dietary counseling, physical activity recommendations, and stress management techniques. The control group received no intervention. The outcomes measured were changes in WHR, visceral fat components, blood pressure, and lipid profile. The results showed that the intervention group had a statistically significant improvement in WHR (p<0.001) and visceral fat components (p<0.001) compared to the control group. Furthermore, there were statistically significant improvements in systolic blood pressure (p=0.015) and total cholesterol (p=0.034) in the intervention group compared to the control group. These findings suggest that implementing a 12-week program that includes dietary counseling, physical activity recommendations, and stress management techniques can effectively improve WHR, visceral fat components, and cardiovascular health among shift workers in an offshore petrochemical company.

Keywords: body composition, waist-hip-ratio, visceral fat, shift worker, work efficiency

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8528 Modeling Battery Degradation for Electric Buses: Assessment of Lifespan Reduction from In-Depot Charging

Authors: Anaissia Franca, Julian Fernandez, Curran Crawford, Ned Djilali

Abstract:

A methodology to estimate the state-of-charge (SOC) of battery electric buses, including degradation effects, for a given driving cycle is presented to support long-term techno-economic analysis integrating electric buses and charging infrastructure. The degradation mechanisms, characterized by both capacity and power fade with time, have been modeled using an electrochemical model for Li-ion batteries. Iterative changes in the negative electrode film resistance and decrease in available lithium as a function of utilization is simulated for every cycle. The cycles are formulated to follow typical transit bus driving patterns. The power and capacity decay resulting from the degradation model are introduced as inputs to a longitudinal chassis dynamic analysis that calculates the power consumption of the bus for a given driving cycle to find the state-of-charge of the battery as a function of time. The method is applied to an in-depot charging scenario, for which the bus is charged exclusively at the depot, overnight and to its full capacity. This scenario is run both with and without including degradation effects over time to illustrate the significant impact of degradation mechanisms on bus performance when doing feasibility studies for a fleet of electric buses. The impact of battery degradation on battery lifetime is also assessed. The modeling tool can be further used to optimize component sizing and charging locations for electric bus deployment projects.

Keywords: battery electric bus, E-bus, in-depot charging, lithium-ion battery, battery degradation, capacity fade, power fade, electric vehicle, SEI, electrochemical models

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
8527 Perceived Effects of Work-Family Balance on Employee’s Job Satisfaction among Extension Agents in Southwest Nigeria

Authors: B. G. Abiona, A. A. Onaseso, T. D. Odetayo, J. Yila, O. E. Fapojuwo, K. G. Adeosun

Abstract:

This study determines the perceived effects of work-family balance on employees’ job satisfaction among Extension Agents in the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) in southwest Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 256 respondents for the study. Data on personal characteristics, work-family balance domain, and job satisfaction were collected. The collected data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC), multiple linear regression, and Student T-test. Results revealed that the mean age of the respondents was 40 years; the majority (59.3%) of the respondents were male, and slightly above half (51.6%) of the respondents had MSc as their highest academic qualification. Findings revealed that turnover intention (x ̅ = 3.20) and work-role conflict (x ̅ = 3.06) were the major perceived work-family balance domain in the studied areas. Further, the result showed that the respondents have a high (79%) level of job satisfaction. Multiple linear regression revealed that job involvement (ß=0.167, p<0.01) and work-role conflict (ß= -0.221, p<0.05) contributed significantly to employees’ level of job satisfaction. The results of the Student T-test revealed a significant difference in the perceived work-family balance domain (t = 0.43, p<0.05) between the two studied areas. The study concluded that work-role conflict among employees causes work-family imbalance and, therefore, negatively affects employees’ job satisfaction. The definition of job design among the respondents that will create a balance between work and family is highly recommended.

Keywords: work-life, conflict, job satisfaction, extension agent

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8526 The Display of Age-Period/Age-Cohort Mortality Trends Using 1-Year Intervals Reveals Period and Cohort Effects Coincident with Major Influenza A Events

Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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