Search results for: future return
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8098

Search results for: future return

7948 Time Estimation of Return to Sports Based on Classification of Health Levels of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Using a Convolutional Neural Network after Reconstruction Surgery

Authors: Zeinab Jafari A., Ali Sharifnezhad B., Mohammad Razi C., Mohammad Haghpanahi D., Arash Maghsoudi

Abstract:

Background and Objective: Sports-related rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and following injuries have been associated with various disorders, such as long-lasting changes in muscle activation patterns in athletes, which might last after ACL reconstruction (ACLR). The rupture of the ACL might result in abnormal patterns of movement execution, extending the treatment period and delaying athletes’ return to sports (RTS). As ACL injury is especially prevalent among athletes, the lengthy treatment process and athletes’ absence from sports are of great concern to athletes and coaches. Thus, estimating safe time of RTS is of crucial importance. Therefore, using a deep neural network (DNN) to classify the health levels of ACL in injured athletes, this study aimed to estimate the safe time for athletes to return to competitions. Methods: Ten athletes with ACLR and fourteen healthy controls participated in this study. Three health levels of ACL were defined: healthy, six-month post-ACLR surgery and nine-month post-ACLR surgery. Athletes with ACLR were tested six and nine months after the ACLR surgery. During the course of this study, surface electromyography (sEMG) signals were recorded from five knee muscles, namely Rectus Femoris (RF), Vastus Lateralis (VL), Vastus Medialis (VM), Biceps Femoris (BF), Semitendinosus (ST), during single-leg drop landing (SLDL) and forward hopping (SLFH) tasks. The Pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution (PWVD) was used to produce three-dimensional (3-D) images of the energy distribution patterns of sEMG signals. Then, these 3-D images were converted to two-dimensional (2-D) images implementing the heat mapping technique, which were then fed to a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN). Results: In this study, we estimated the safe time of RTS by designing a DCNN classifier with an accuracy of 90 %, which could classify ACL into three health levels. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the DCNN classification technique using sEMG signals in estimating RTS time, which will assist in evaluating the recovery process of ACLR in athletes.

Keywords: anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, return to sports, surface electromyography, deep convolutional neural network

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7947 Development of an Index for Asset Class in Ex-Ante Portfolio Management

Authors: Miang Hong Ngerng, Noor Diyana Jasme, May Jin Theong

Abstract:

Volatile market environment is inevitable. Fund managers are struggling to choose the right strategy to survive and overcome uncertainties and adverse market movement. Therefore, finding certainty in the mist of uncertainty future is one of the key performance objectives for fund managers. Current available theoretical results are not practical due to strong reliance on the investment assumption made. This paper is to identify the component that can be forecasted in Ex-ante setting which is the realistic situation facing a fund manager in the actual execution of asset allocation in portfolio management. Partial lease square method was used to generate an index with 10 years accounting data from 191 companies listed in KLSE. The result shows that the index reflects the inner nature of the business and up to 30% of the stock return can be explained by the index.

Keywords: active portfolio management, asset allocation ex-ante investment, asset class, partial lease square

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7946 Optimization of a High-Growth Investment Portfolio for the South African Market Using Predictive Analytics

Authors: Mia Françoise

Abstract:

This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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7945 Analysis of User Data Usage Trends on Cellular and Wi-Fi Networks

Authors: Jayesh M. Patel, Bharat P. Modi

Abstract:

The availability of on mobile devices that can invoke the demonstrated that the total data demand from users is far higher than previously articulated by measurements based solely on a cellular-centric view of smart-phone usage. The ratio of Wi-Fi to cellular traffic varies significantly between countries, This paper is shown the compression between the cellular data usage and Wi-Fi data usage by the user. This strategy helps operators to understand the growing importance and application of yield management strategies designed to squeeze maximum returns from their investments into the networks and devices that enable the mobile data ecosystem. The transition from unlimited data plans towards tiered pricing and, in the future, towards more value-centric pricing offers significant revenue upside potential for mobile operators, but, without a complete insight into all aspects of smartphone customer behavior, operators will unlikely be able to capture the maximum return from this billion-dollar market opportunity.

Keywords: cellular, Wi-Fi, mobile, smart phone

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7944 Design of S-Shape GPS Application Electrically Small Antenna

Authors: Riki H. Patel, Arpan Desai, Trushit Upadhyaya, Shobhit K. Patel

Abstract:

The micro strip antennas area has seen some inventive work in recent years and is now one of the most dynamic fields of antenna theory. A novel and simple printed wideband monopole antenna is presented. Printed on a single dielectric substrate and easily fed by using a 50 ohm microstip line, low-profile antenna structure with two parallel S-shaped meandered line of same size. In this research, S–form micro strip patch antenna is designed from measuring the prototypes of the proposed antenna one available bands with 10db return loss bandwidths of about GPS application (GPS L2 1490 MHz) and covering the 1400 to 1580 MHz frequency band at 1.5 GHz The simulated results for main parameters such as return loss, impedance bandwidth, radiation patterns and gains are also discussed herein. The modeling study shows that such antennas, in simplicity design and supply, and can satisfy GPS application. Two parallel slots are incorporated to disturb the surface flow path, introducing local inductive effect. This antenna is fed by a coaxial feeding tube.

Keywords: bandwidth, electrically small antenna, microstrip, patch antenna, GPS

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7943 The Expansion of Buddhism from India to Nepal Himalaya and Beyond

Authors: Umesh Regmi

Abstract:

This paper explores the expansion of Buddhism from India geographically to the Himalayan region of Nepal, Tibet, India, and Bhutan in chronological historical sequence. The Buddhism practiced in Tibet is the spread of the Mahayana-Vajrayana form appropriately designed by Indian Mahasiddhas, who were the practitioners of the highest form of tantra and meditation. Vajrayana Buddhism roots in the esoteric practices incorporating the teachings of Buddha, mantras, dharanis, rituals, and sadhana for attaining enlightenment. This form of Buddhism spread from India to Nepal after the 5th Century AD and Tibet after the 7th century AD and made a return journey to the Himalayan region of Nepal, India, and Bhutan after the 8th century. The first diffusion of this form of Buddhism from India to Nepal and Tibet is partially proven through Buddhist texts and the archaeological existence of monasteries historically and at times relied on mythological traditions. The second diffusion of Buddhism in Tibet was institutionalized through the textual translations and interpretations of Indian Buddhist masters and their Tibetan disciples and the establishment of different monasteries in various parts of Tibet, later resulting in different schools and their traditions: Nyingma, Kagyu, Sakya, Gelug, and their sub-schools. The first return journey of Buddhism from Tibet to the Himalayan region of Nepal, India, and Bhutan in the 8th century is mythologically recorded in local legends of the arrival of Padmasambhava, and the second journey in the 11th century and afterward flourished by many Indian masters who practiced continuously till date. This return journey of Tibetan Buddhism has been intensified after 1959 with the Chinese occupation of Tibet, resulting in the Tibetan Buddhist masters living in exile in major locations like Kathmandu, Dharmasala, Dehradun, Sikkim, Kalimpong, and beyond. The historic-cultural-critical methodology for the recognition of the qualities of cultural expressions analysis presents the Buddhist practices of the Himalayan region, explaining the concepts of Ri (mountain as spiritual symbols), yul-lha (village deities), dhar-lha (spiritual concept of mountain passes), dharchhog-lungdhar (prayer flags), rig-sum gonpo (small stupas), Chenresig, asura (demi gods), etc. Tibetan Buddhist history has preserved important textual and practical aspects of Vajrayana from Buddhism historically in the form of arrival, advent, and development, including rising and fall. Currently, Tibetan Buddhism has influenced a great deal in the contemporary Buddhist practices of the world. The exploratory findings conducted over seven years of field visits and research in the Himalayan regions of Nepal, India, and Bhutan have demonstrated the fact that Buddhism in the Himalayan region is a return journey from Tibet and lately been popularized globally after 1959 by major monasteries and their Buddhist masters, lamas, nuns and other professionals, who have contributed in different periods of time.

Keywords: Buddhism, expansion, Himalayan region, India, Nepal, Bhutan, return, Tibet, Vajrayana Buddhism

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7942 Alternative Futures for the Middle East

Authors: Dorsa Bakhshandehgeyazdi

Abstract:

This paper examines elective future of security in the Middle East trying to find a way that could take the district from a shaky past to a more secure future. Taking a gander at five situations about the eventual future of world legislative issues, in particular, globalization, fragmentation, conflict of civilizations, majority rule peace and the development of a security group, the paper contends that albeit every situation has its qualities (and in addition shortcomings), it is the situation that predicts the foundation of a security group that joins a more express thought for forming a more secure future for the Middle East.

Keywords: Middle East, Globalization, Fragmentation, Conflict of civilizations, Majority rule peace, Development of a security group

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7941 Radiofrequency Ablation: A Technique in the Management of Low Anal Fistula

Authors: R. Suresh, C. B. Singh, A. K. Sarda

Abstract:

Background: Over the decades, several surgical techniques have been developed to treat anal fistulas with variable success rates and complications. Large amount of work has been done in radiofrequency excision of the fistula for several years but no work has been done for ablating the tract. Therefore one can consider for obliteration ofanal fistula by Radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Material and Methods: A randomized controlled clinical trial was conducted at Lok Nayak Hospital, where a total of 40 patients were enrolled in the study and they were randomly assigned to Group I (fistulectomy)(n=20) and Group II (RFA) (n=20). Aim of the study was to compare the efficacy of RFA of fistula versus fistulectomy in the treatment of a low anal fistula and to evaluate RFA as an effective alternative to fistulectomy with respect to time taken for wound healing as primary outcome and post-operative pain, time taken to return to work as secondary outcomes. Patients with simple low anal fistulas, single internal and external opening, not more than two secondary tracts were included. Patients with high complex fistula, fistulas communicating with cavity, fistula due to condition like tuberculosis, Crohn's, malignancy were excluded from the study. Results: Both groups were comparable with respect to age, sex ratio, type of fistula. Themean healing time was significantly shorter in group II (41.02 days) than in group I(62.68 days).The mean operative time was significantly shorter in groupII (21.40 min) than in group I(28.50 min). The mean time taken to return to work was significantly shorter in group II(8.30 days)than in group I(12.01 days).There was no significant difference in the post operative hospital stay, mean postoperative pain score, wound infection and recurrence between the two groups. Conclusion: The patients who underwent RFA of fistula had shorter wound healing time, operative time and time taken to return to work when compared to those who underwent fistulectomy and therefore RFA shows outcome comparable to fistulectomy in the treatment of low anal fistula.

Keywords: fistulectomy, low anal fistula, radio frequency ablation, wound healing

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7940 Board of Directors Gender Diversity, Board Committees and Financial Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

Authors: Aliyu Aminu Baba, Yahaya Danjuma, Ahmad Sule Liman-Katagum

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of the board of directors’ diversity on firm performance. We investigate the relationship between the number of women directors on the board and important board committees and financial performance measured as return on assets. Our statistical analysis supports the theoretical position of the effect diversity on financial performance. These studies enhanced the previous studies on the board of director’s gender diversity, board committees, and its impacts on firm financial performance. The study uses data from eighteen (18) Nigerian commercial banks. The study finds that banks with a higher number of females directors on board and board committees have higher Earning per share(EPS)) and Return on Assets (ROA). It also finds that some banks did not even have a single female on its corporate board. Evidence imply that decisions concerning the appointment of women to corporate boards should be on criteria and financial performance. It is recommended that banks can enhance their financial performance by having more female directors on their corporate board.

Keywords: board of directors, gender diversity, board committees, financial performance

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7939 Review on Japan Environmental Future City: Development, Critics and Cases

Authors: Runlang Zhu, Weijun Gao, Yinqi Zhang, Gangwei Cai

Abstract:

In order to deal with issues such as the environmental problems and aging of the population, the Japanese government wanted to achieve goals like 'a city where everyone wants to live' and 'a city full of energy for everyone' by creating environmental, social, and economic values in the process of urban development. They began to promote the concept of 'Environmental Future City' in 2010, aiming to create cities and regions with excellent environments, sustainable economic development, and social systems. After taking a look at the history, concept, and development of environmental future cities, the paper will discuss the evaluation system of them, introduce representative cases, and point out what other cities can learn from their development process.

Keywords: environmental future city, city concept, CASBEE, environmental performance assessment

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7938 Exploring the Effect of Accounting Information on Systematic Risk: An Empirical Evidence of Tehran Stock Exchange

Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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7937 Upper Bound of the Generalized P-Value for the Difference between Two Future Population Means

Authors: Rada Somkhuean, Sa-aat Niwitpong, Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

This paper presents the generalized p-values for testing the difference between two future population means when the variances are unknown, in both cases for when the variances are equal and unequal. We also derive a closed form expression of the upper bound of the proposed generalized p-value.

Keywords: generalized p-value, two future population means, upper bound, variances

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7936 Finding Data Envelopment Analysis Targets Using Multi-Objective Programming in DEA-R with Stochastic Data

Authors: R. Shamsi, F. Sharifi

Abstract:

In this paper, we obtain the projection of inefficient units in data envelopment analysis (DEA) in the case of stochastic inputs and outputs using the multi-objective programming (MOP) structure. In some problems, the inputs might be stochastic while the outputs are deterministic, and vice versa. In such cases, we propose a multi-objective DEA-R model because in some cases (e.g., when unnecessary and irrational weights by the BCC model reduce the efficiency score), an efficient decision-making unit (DMU) is introduced as inefficient by the BCC model, whereas the DMU is considered efficient by the DEA-R model. In some other cases, only the ratio of stochastic data may be available (e.g., the ratio of stochastic inputs to stochastic outputs). Thus, we provide a multi-objective DEA model without explicit outputs and prove that the input-oriented MOP DEA-R model in the invariable return to scale case can be replaced by the MOP-DEA model without explicit outputs in the variable return to scale and vice versa. Using the interactive methods for solving the proposed model yields a projection corresponding to the viewpoint of the DM and the analyst, which is nearer to reality and more practical. Finally, an application is provided.

Keywords: DEA-R, multi-objective programming, stochastic data, data envelopment analysis

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7935 Stochastic Frontier Application for Evaluating Cost Inefficiencies in Organic Saffron

Authors: Pawan Kumar Sharma, Sudhakar Dwivedi, R. K. Arora

Abstract:

Saffron is one of the most precious spices grown on the earth and is cultivated in a very limited area in few countries of the world. It has also been grown as a niche crop in Kishtwar district of Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir State of India. This paper attempts to examine the presence of cost inefficiencies in saffron production and the associated socio-economic characteristics of saffron growers in the mentioned area. Although the numbers of inputs used in cultivation of saffron were limited, still cost inefficiencies were present in its production. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and profitability index (PI) of investment in five years of saffron production were INR 1120803, 95.67 % and 3.52 respectively. The estimated coefficients of saffron stochastic cost function for saffron bulbs, human labour, animal labour, manure and saffron output were positive. The saffron growers having non-farm income were more cost inefficient as compared to farmers who did not have sources of income other than farming by 0.04 %. The maximum value of cost efficiency for saffron grower was 1.69 with mean value of 1.12. The majority of farmers have low cost inefficiencies, as the highest frequency of occurrence of the predicted cost efficiency was below 1.06.

Keywords: saffron, internal rate of return, cost efficiency, stochastic frontier model

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7934 Disrupted or Discounted Cash Flow: Impact of Digitisation on Business Valuation

Authors: Matthias Haerri, Tobias Huettche, Clemens Kustner

Abstract:

This article discusses the impact of digitization on business valuation. In order to become and remain ‘digital’, investments are necessary whose return on investment (ROI) often remains vague. This uncertainty is contradictory for a valuation, that rely on predictable cash flows, fixed capital structures and the steady state. However digitisation does not make a company valuation impossible, but traditional approaches must be reconsidered. The authors identify four areas that are to be changing: (1) Tools instead of intuition - In the future, company valuation will neither be art nor science, but craft. This does not require intuition, but experience and good tools. Digital evaluation tools beyond Excel will therefore gain in importance. (2) Real-time instead of deadline - At present, company valuations are always carried out on a case-by-case basis and on a specific key date. This will change with the digitalization and the introduction of web-based valuation tools. Company valuations can thus not only be carried out faster and more efficiently, but can also be offered more frequently. Instead of calculating the value for a previous key date, current and real-time valuations can be carried out. (3) Predictive planning instead of analysis of the past - Past data will also be needed in the future, but its use will not be limited to monovalent time series or key figure analyses. With pictures of ‘black swans’ and the ‘turkey illusion’ it was made clear to us that we build forecasts on too few data points of the past and underestimate the power of chance. Predictive planning can help here. (4) Convergence instead of residual value - Digital transformation shortens the lifespan of viable business models. If companies want to live forever, they have to change forever. For the company valuation, this means that the business model valid on the valuation date only has a limited service life.

Keywords: business valuation, corporate finance, digitisation, disruption

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7933 Determinants of Financial Performance of South African Businesses in Africa: Evidence from JSE Listed Telecommunications Companies

Authors: Nomakhosi Tshuma, Carley Chetty

Abstract:

This study employed panel regression analysis to investigate the financial performance determinants of MTN and Vodacom’s rest of Africa businesses between 2012 to 2020. It used net profit margin, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE) as financial performance proxies. Financial performance determinants investigated were asset size, debt ratio, liquidity, number of subscribers, and exchange rate. Data relating to exchange rates were obtained from the World Bank website, while financial data and subscriber information were obtained from the companies’ audited financial statements. The study found statistically significant negative relationships between debt and both ROA and net profit, exchange rate and both ROA and net profit, and subscribers and ROE. It also found significant positive relationships between ROE and both asset size and exchange rate. The study recommends strategic options that optimise on the above findings, and these include infrastructure sharing to reduce infrastructure costs and the minimisation of foreign-denominated debt.

Keywords: financial performance, determinants of financial performance, business in Africa, telecommunications industry

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7932 Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran

Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

Abstract:

Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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7931 Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Network Comparative Analysis: Modulation Formats and Channel Spacings

Authors: A. Fayad, Q. Alqhazaly, T. Cinkler

Abstract:

In light of the substantial increase in end-user requirements and the incessant need of network operators to upgrade the capabilities of access networks, in this paper, the performance of the different modulation formats on eight-channels Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Network (TWDM-PON) transmission system has been examined and compared. Limitations and features of modulation formats have been determined to outline the most suitable design to enhance the data rate and transmission reach to obtain the best performance of the network. The considered modulation formats are On-Off Keying Non-Return-to-Zero (NRZ-OOK), Carrier Suppressed Return to Zero (CSRZ), Duo Binary (DB), Modified Duo Binary (MODB), Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK), and Differential Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (DQPSK). The performance has been analyzed by varying transmission distances and bit rates under different channel spacing. Furthermore, the system is evaluated in terms of minimum Bit Error Rate (BER) and Quality factor (Qf) without applying any dispersion compensation technique, or any optical amplifier. Optisystem software was used for simulation purposes.

Keywords: BER, DuoBinary, NRZ-OOK, TWDM-PON

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7930 Performance Management; Hotel Managers and Owners Dilemma

Authors: Olokode Enitan Aishat

Abstract:

People can perform to the best of their abilities and produce the highest-quality work most effectively and efficiently with the aid of performance management tools. The performance, goal-setting, activation, monitoring, measurement, and evaluation aspects of hospitality operations are key. The hospitality industry, the investors, and management would become irrelevant without performance since the industry would no longer be viable. The goal of this study is to elucidate the quandary for both management and investor, which derives from an intrinsic perspective in which both parties seek to reach and exceed goals while maximizing returns on investment. The desire for achievement and a return on investment is a major conundrum for all parties concerned. It is envisaged that there would be returns on the investments and expenses made in maintaining hospitality facilities with human resources. Secondary research was used to develop the theoretical framework. A random sample of respondents from hotels employee and investors within the city of Abuja was used to collect data, which was then analyzed using SPSS. This study confirms the validity of simple and straightforward common misunderstandings and provides tried and tested strategies for understanding and working together as a team among managers and owners in a business, as this would guarantee a return for business owners and management.

Keywords: performance management, hospitality industry, conflict, alignment of key performance indicator

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7929 Assessing Artificial Neural Network Models on Forecasting the Return of Stock Market Index

Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

Abstract:

Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

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7928 Ideological Passing: A Study of Tawfiq Al-Hakim’s The River of Madness

Authors: Yasser Khamis Ragab Aman

Abstract:

Tawfiq Al-Hakim (1898-1987) celebrated the 1919 Revolution by writing The Return of The Spirit published in 1933, a novel which portrayed national awakening and illustrated the cult of a nationalist leader, such as Saad Zaghloul so much that it influenced Egypt’s first president Gamal Abdel Nasser. However, in 1974, and because of an excruciating sense of disappointment, Al-Hakim wrote The Return of Consciousness. Between losing and regaining consciousness, Al-Hakim wrote The River of Madness, a short play published in 1937. It portrays an old kingdom established in a distant place where there is a conflict between the King and his minister, who have not drunk from the river of madness, on the one hand, and the inhabitants of the kingdom who thought that the King and the minister have gone mad because they refused to drink from the river. (Each party doubted the sanity of the other). In fact, the King and the minister differ in their political stance from the rest of the people. By philosophical reasoning, the minister convinces the King that it is safer to go mad with the majority than to be treated as an unwanted minority. It is believed that in The River of Madness, Al-Hakim deftly portrays an example of ideological passing as an alternative solution that can save the country from the woes of the aftermath of revolution and civil war.

Keywords: ideological passing, Al Hakim, The River of Madness, Arabic literature

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7927 Non-factoid Arabic Question-Answering Systems: A Review of Existing Studies, Research Issues, and Future Trends

Authors: Aya Mousa, Mahmoud Alsaheb

Abstract:

Question Answering System (QAS) aims to provide the most suitable answer to the user's question in any natural language. In the recent future, it will be a future version of web search. Much research has already been done on answering Arabic factoid questions and achieved good accuracy. In contrast, the progress in research on Arabic non-factoid question answering is still immature. In this survey, we summarize, discuss, and compare the existing Arab non-factoid question-answering systems to identify the limitations and the achievements that were accomplished. Furthermore, we investigate the challenges in developing non-factoid Arabic QAS and the possible future improvements. The survey is written to help the researchers to understand the field of Arabic non-factoid QAS and to motivate them to utilize different approaches to develop and enhance the Non-factoid Arabic QAS

Keywords: Arabic question answering system, non-factoid question answering, Arabic NLP, question answering

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7926 Improvement of Healthcare Quality and Psychological Stress Relieve for Transition Program in Intensive Care Units

Authors: Ru-Yu Lien, Shih-Hsin Hung, Shu-Fen Lu, Shu-I Chin, Wen-Ju Yang, Wan Ming-Shang, Chien-Ying Wang

Abstract:

Background: Upon recovery from critical condition, patients are normally transferred from the intensive care units (ICUs) to the general wards. However, transferring patients to a new environment causes stressful experiences for both patients and their families. Therefore, there is a necessity to communicate with the patients and their families to reduce psychological stress and unplanned return. Methods: This study was performed in the general ICUs from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, in Taipei Veteran General Hospital. The patients who were evaluated by doctors and liaison nurses transferred to the general wards were selected as the research objects and ranked by the Critical Care Transition Program (CCTP). The plan was applied to 40 patients in a study group and usual care support for a control group of 40 patients. The psychological condition of patients was evaluated by a migration stress scale and a hospital anxiety and depression scale. In addition, the rate of return to ICU was also measured. Results: A total of 63 patients out of 80 (78.8%) experienced moderate to severe degrees of anxiety, and 42 patients (52.6%) experienced moderate to severe degrees of depression before being transferred. The difference between anxiety and depression changed more after the transfer; moreover, when a transition program was applied, it was lower than without a transition program. The return to ICU rate in the study group was lower than in the usual transition group, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.888, P=0.034). Conclusion: Our study found that the transfer program could reduce the anxiety and depression of patients and the associated stress on their families during the transition from ICU. Before being transferred out of ICU, the healthcare providers need to assess the needs of patients to set the goals of the care plan and perform patient-centered decision-making with multidisciplinary support.

Keywords: ICU, critical care transition program, healthcare, transition program

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7925 Optimal Investment and Consumption Decision for an Investor with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic Interest Rate Model through Utility Maximization

Authors: Silas A. Ihedioha

Abstract:

In this work; it is considered that an investor’s portfolio is comprised of two assets; a risky stock which price process is driven by the geometric Brownian motion and a risk-free asset with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic interest rate of return, where consumption, taxes, transaction costs and dividends are involved. This paper aimed at the optimization of the investor’s expected utility of consumption and terminal return on his investment at the terminal time having power utility preference. Using dynamic optimization procedure of maximum principle, a second order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) (the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation HJB) was obtained from which an ordinary differential equation (ODE) obtained via elimination of variables. The solution to the ODE gave the closed form solution of the investor’s problem. It was found the optimal investment in the risky asset is horizon dependent and a ratio of the total amount available for investment and the relative risk aversion coefficient.

Keywords: optimal, investment, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, utility maximization, stochastic interest rate, maximum principle

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7924 Climate Change Impacts on Future Wheat Growing Areas

Authors: Rasha Aljaryian, Lalit Kumar

Abstract:

Climate is undergoing continuous change and this trend will affect the cultivation areas ofmost crops, including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), in the future. The current suitable cultivation areas may become unsuitable climatically. Countries that depend on wheat cultivation and export may suffer an economic loss because of production decline. On the other hand, some regions of the world could gain economically by increasing cultivation areas. This study models the potential future climatic suitability of wheat by using CLIMEX software. Two different global climate models (GCMs) were used, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), with two emission scenarios (A2, A1B). The results of this research indicate that the suitable climatic areas for wheat in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, are expected to contract by the end of this century. However, some unsuitable or marginal areas will become climatically suitable under future climate scenarios. In North America and Europe further expansion inland could occur. Also, the results illustrate that heat and dry stresses as abiotic climatic factors will play an important role in wheat distribution in the future. Providing sufficient information about future wheat distribution will be useful for agricultural ministries and organizations to manage the shift in production areas in the future. They can minimize the expected harmful economic consequences by preparing strategic plans and identifying new areas for wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate modelling, CLIMEX, Triticum aestivum, Wheat

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7923 The Future of Hospitals: A Systematic Review in the Field of Architectural Design with a Disruptive Research and Development Approach

Authors: María Araya Léon, Ainoa Abella, Aura Murillo, Ricardo Guasch, Laura Clèries

Abstract:

Objectives: This article aims to examine scientific theory framed within the term hospitals of the future from a multidisciplinary and cross-sectional perspective. To understand the connection that the various cross-sectional areas we studied have with architectural spaces and to determine the future outlook of the works examined and how they can be classified into the categories of need/solution, evolution/revolution, collective/individual, and preventive/corrective. Background: The changes currently taking place within the context of healthcare demonstrate how important these projects are and the need for companies to face future changes. Method: A systematic review has been carried out focused on what will the hospitals of the future be like in relation to the elements that form part of their use, design, and architectural space experience, using the WOS database from 2016 to 2019. Results: The large number of works about sensoring & big data and the scarce amount related to the area of materials is worth highlighting. Furthermore, no growth concerning future issues is envisaged over time. Regarding classifications, the articles we reviewed address evolutionary and collective solutions more, and in terms of preventive and corrective solutions, they were found at a similar level. Conclusions: Although our research focused on the future of hospitals, there is little evidence representing this approach. We also detected that, given the relevance of the research on how the built environment influences human health and well-being, these studies should be promoted within the context of healthcare.

Keywords: hospitals, future, architectural space, disruptive approach

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7922 A Dual Debrief-Based Co-Autoethnography of a Humanitarian Delegation Member: Supporting Ukraine Refugee Mothers through Ambiguous Loss

Authors: Bilha Paryente, Rivi Frei Landau

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Autoethnography - a combination of autobiography and ethnography - focuses on the intersection of personal experiences and the culture in which they take place and is considered a viable method for exploring human experiences. The Russo-Ukrainian war has resulted in millions of forcibly displaced asylum-seeking refugees facing ambiguous loss. Whereas much is known about refugees' support needs, little is known about the needs and experiences of the humanitarian delegation members (HDM) who assist them. Through a debrief-based co-autoethnographic account of a female HDM who supported Ukrainian refugee mothers and children on the Polish borders, we explored the lived experiences involved in such a mission. Specifically, we conducted a transnational dyadic autoethnography debrief-based co-autoethnography which included both verbal and photo-based debriefing (8 two-hour sessions) alongside a reflexive (10-day) field diary analysis. Content analysis revealed cognitive dilemmas, emotional struggles, and practical adaptations occurring within the HDM's three identity-related domains: personal, professional (psychologist), and ethnic. The methodology presented and demonstrated in this paper enhances our theoretical understanding of the challenges faced by HDMs and may contribute to better future design of HDM training. Practically, the findings of the current study suggest the need for a three-stage accompaniment for HDMs relating to their personal, professional, and ethnic identities and considering their cognitive, emotional, and adaptive aspects. First, before leaving, HDMs should be briefed on personal and professional aspects of their experiences and ways of coping with them, as well as ethnic and religious affiliation issues. Second, while volunteering every evening their dilemmas, emotional struggles, and ways of adapting should be addressed for the three layers of identities. And finally, shortly after their return, there should be a final meeting to discuss all aspects of their identities and layers of personality. In this way, HDMs can become more effective in the important mission they fulfill. We hope that future HDMs and the bodies that send them on humanitarian missions of paramount importance will adopt these recommendations and generate proactive insights for members of future delegations.

Keywords: autoethnography, refugees, humanitarian delegation, ambiguous loss, Russo-Ukraine War, parenting

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7921 Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: An Empirical Study from Pakistan

Authors: Mohammed Nishat, Ahmad Ghazali

Abstract:

This study empirically inspects the corporate governance and firm performance, and attempts to analyze the corporate governance and control related variables which are hypothesized to have effect on firm’s performance. Current study attempts to assess the mechanism and efficiency of corporate governance to achieve high level performance for the listed firms on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) for the period 2005 to 2008. To evaluate the firm performance level this study investigate the firm performance using three measures; Return on assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Tobin’s Q. To check the link between firm performances with the corporate governance three categories of corporate governance variables are tested which includes governance, ownership and control related variables. Fixed effect regression model is used to examine the relation among governance and corporate performance for 267 KSE listed Pakistani firms. The result shows that governance related variables like block shareholding by individuals have positive impact on firm performance. When chief executive officer is also the board chairperson then it is observed that performance of firm is adversely affected. Also negative relationship is found between share held by insiders and performance of firm. Leverage has negative influence on the firm performance and size of firm is positively related with performance of the firm.

Keywords: corporate governance, agency cost, KSE, ROA, Tobin’s Q

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7920 An Exploratory Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Design Rainfalls in the State of Qatar

Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

Abstract:

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

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7919 The Impact of the Length of Time Spent on the Street on Adjustment to Homelessness

Authors: Jakub Marek, Marie Vagnerova, Ladislav Csemy

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Background: The length of time spent on the street influences the degree of adjustment to homelessness. Over the years spent sleeping rough, homeless people gradually lose the ability to control their lives and their return to mainstream society becomes less and less likely. Goals: The aim of the study was to discover whether and how men who have been sleeping rough for more than ten years differ from those who have been homeless for four years or less. Methods: The research was based on a narrative analysis of in-depth interviews focused on the respondent’s entire life story, i.e. their childhood, adolescence, and the period of adulthood preceding homelessness. It also asked the respondents about how they envisaged the future. The group under examination comprised 51 homeless men aged 37 – 54. The first subgroup contained 29 men who have been sleeping rough for 10 – 21 years, the second group contained 22 men who have been homeless for four years or less. Results: Men who have been sleeping rough for more than ten years had problems adapting as children. They grew up in a problematic family or in an institution and acquired only a rudimentary education. From the start they had problems at work, found it difficult to apply themselves, and found it difficult to hold down a job. They tend to have high-risk personality traits and often a personality disorder. Early in life they had problems with alcohol or drugs and their relationships were unsuccessful. If they have children, they do not look after them. They are reckless even in respect of the law and often commit crime. They usually ended up on the street in their thirties. Most of this subgroup of homeless people lack motivation and the will to make any fundamental change to their lives. They identify with the homeless community and have no other contacts. Men who have been sleeping rough for four years or less form two subgroups. There are those who had a normal childhood, attended school and found work. They started a family but began to drink, and as a consequence lost their family and their job. Such men end up on the street between the ages of 35 and 40. And then there are men who become homeless after the age of 40 because of an inability to cope with a difficult situation, e.g. divorce or indebtedness. They are not substance abusers and do not have a criminal record. Such people can be offered effective assistance to return to mainstream society by the social services because they have not yet fully self-identified with the homeless community and most of them have retained the necessary abilities and skills. Conclusion: The length of time a person has been homeless is an important factor in respect of social prevention. It is clear that the longer a person is homeless, the worse are their chances of being reintegrated into mainstream society.

Keywords: risk factors, homelessness, chronicity, narrative analysis

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