Search results for: variances

Authors: Rada Somkhuean, Sa-aat Niwitpong, Suparat Niwitpong

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This paper presents the generalized p-values for testing the difference between two future population means when the variances are unknown, in both cases for when the variances are equal and unequal. We also derive a closed form expression of the upper bound of the proposed generalized p-value.

Keywords: generalized p-value, two future population means, upper bound, variances

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Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: Khin Fai Chen, Jee-Hou Ho, Eng Hwa Yap

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An acoustic micro-energy harvester (AMEH) is developed to convert wasted acoustical energy into useful electrical energy. AMEH is mathematically modeled using lumped element modelling (LEM) and Euler-Bernoulli beam (EBB) modelling. An experiment is designed to validate the mathematical model and assess the feasibility of AMEH. Comparison of theoretical and experimental data on critical parameter value such as Mm, Cms, dm and Ceb showed the variances are within 1% to 6%, which is reasonably acceptable. Hence, AMEH mathematical model is validated. Then, AMEH undergoes bandwidth tuning for performance optimization for further experimental work. The AMEH successfully produces 0.9 V⁄(m⁄s^2) and 1.79 μW⁄(m^2⁄s^4) at 60Hz and 400kΩ resistive load which only show variances about 7% compared to theoretical data. By integrating a capacitive load of 200µF, the discharge cycle time of AMEH is 1.8s and the usable energy bandwidth is available as low as 0.25g. At 1g and 60Hz resonance frequency, the averaged power output is about 2.2mW which fulfilled a range of wireless sensors and communication peripherals power requirements. Finally, the design for AMEH is assessed, validated and deemed as a feasible design.

Keywords: piezoelectric, acoustic, energy harvester

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Authors: Deanna Ruano-Meas, Laura Shenkman

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Variances are seen in the way healthcare personnel (HCP) don and doff PPE risking contamination to self and others. By standardizing practice, variances in technique decrease, and so does the risk of contamination. To implement this change, the Model for Improvement will be used. A system change will be developed that will outline the role of the organizational leader’s support of HCP in the proper donning and doffing of PPE. Interventions will include environmental surveys to assess the safety and work situation ensuring a permissible environment, plan audits to confirm consistency, and the assessment of PPE wear for standardization. The change will also include an educational plan that will involve instruction of the current guidelines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to all pertinent HCP, and the incorporation of PPE education in yearly educational training. The goal is a standardized practice and a reduced risk of contamination through education and organizational support. Personal protective equipment has had recent attention with the coming of the SARS-CoV-2. The realization that proper technique is important to decreasing contamination of pathogens has led to the revising of current processes.

Keywords: donning and doffing, HAI, infection control, PPE

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Authors: Adamu Usman, Grace Stanley Balami

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Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L. R. Br.) is a cereal cultivated in arid and semi-arid areas of the world. It supports more than 100 million people around the world. Parasitic weed (Striga hermonthica Del. Benth) is a major constraint to its production. Estimated yield losses are put at 10 - 95% depending on variety, ecology and cultural practices. Potentials in selection of traits in pearl millets for grain yield have been reported and it depends on genotypic variability and heritability among landraces. Variability and heritability among cultivars could offer opportunities for improvement. The study was conducted to determine the genetic variability among cultivars and estimate broad sense heritability among grain yield and related traits. F1 breeding populations were generated with 9 parental cultivars, viz; Ex-Gubio, Ex-Monguno, Ex-Baga as males and PEO 5984, Super-SOSAT, SOSAT-C88, Ex-Borno and LCIC9702 as females through Line × Tester mating during 2017 dry season at Lushi Irrigation Station, Bauchi Metropolitan in Bauchi State, Nigeria. The F1 population and the parents were evaluated during cropping season of 2018 at Bauchi and Maiduguri. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance. Results showed significant difference among cultivars and among traits indicating variability. Number of plants at emergence, days to 50% flowering, days to 100% flowering, plant height, panicle length, number of plants at harvest, Striga count at 90 days after sowing, panicle weight and grain yield were significantly different. Significant variability offer opportunity for improvement as superior individuals can be isolated. Genotypic variance estimates of traits were largely greater than environmental variances except in plant height and 1000 seed weight. Environmental variances were low and in some cases negligible. The phenotypic variances of all traits were higher than genotypic variances. Similarly phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) was higher than genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV). High heritability was found in days to 50% flowering (90.27%), Striga count at 90 days after sowing (90.07%), number of plants at harvest (87.97%), days to 100% flowering (83.89%), number of plants at emergence (82.19%) and plant height (73.18%). Greater heritability estimates could be due to presence of additive gene. The result revealed wider variability among genotypes and traits. Traits having high heritability could easily respond to selection. High value of GCV, PCV and heritability estimates indicate that selection for these traits are possible and could be effective.

Keywords: variability, heritability, phenotypic, genotypic, striga

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Authors: Kalu Ram Meena, Aditi Kar Gangopadhyay, Satrajit Mandal

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Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variances are known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the method of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

Keywords: estimation after selection, Brewster-Zidek technique, estimators, selected populations

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Authors: Daniel Fundi Murithi

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Data from economic, social, clinical, and industrial studies are in some way incomplete or incorrect due to censoring. Such data may have adverse effects if used in the estimation problem. We propose the use of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under a progressive type-II censoring scheme to remedy this problem. In particular, maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) for the location (µ) and scale (λ) parameters of two Parameter Rayleigh distribution are realized under a progressive type-II censoring scheme using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and the Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithms. These algorithms are used comparatively because they iteratively produce satisfactory results in the estimation problem. The progressively type-II censoring scheme is used because it allows the removal of test units before the termination of the experiment. Approximate asymptotic variances and confidence intervals for the location and scale parameters are derived/constructed. The efficiency of EM and the NR algorithms is compared given root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and the coverage rate. The simulation study showed that in most sets of simulation cases, the estimates obtained using the Expectation-maximization algorithm had small biases, small variances, narrower/small confidence intervals width, and small root of mean squared error compared to those generated via the Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm. Further, the analysis of a real-life data set (data from simple experimental trials) showed that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm performs better compared to Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm in all simulation cases under the progressive type-II censoring scheme.

Keywords: expectation-maximization algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, Newton-Raphson method, two-parameter Rayleigh distribution, progressive type-II censoring

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Authors: Tiptunya Duangsri, Panwilai Chomchid, Natchanok Jansawang

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This research study was to investigate of education decisions must be made which a part of it should be passed on to future generations as obligatory for all members of a chemistry class for students who will prepare themselves for a special position. The descriptions of instructional design were provided and the recent criticisms are discussed. This research study to an outline of an integrative framework for the description of information and the instructional design model give structure to negotiate a semblance of conscious understanding. The aims of this study are to describe the instructional design model for comparisons between students’ genders of their effects on STEM educational learning achievement motives to their science attitudes and logical thinking abilities with a sample size of 18 students at the 11th grade level with the cluster random sampling technique in Mahawichanukul School were designed. The chemistry learning environment was administered with the STEM education method. To build up the 5-instrument lesson instructional plan issues were instructed innovations, the 30-item Logical Thinking Test (LTT) on 5 scales, namely; Inference, Recognition of Assumptions, Deduction, Interpretation and Evaluation scales was used. Students’ responses of their perceptions with the Test Of Chemistry-Related Attitude (TOCRA) were assessed of their attitude in science toward chemistry. The validity from Index Objective Congruence value (IOC) checked by five expert specialist educator in two chemistry classroom targets in STEM education, the E1/E2 process were equaled evidence of 84.05/81.42 which results based on criteria are higher than of 80/80 standard level with the IOC from the expert educators. Comparisons between students’ learning achievement motives with STEM educational model on stoichiometry issue in chemistry classes with different genders were differentiated at evidence level of .05, significantly. Associations between students’ learning achievement motives on their posttest outcomes and logical thinking abilities, the predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 69% and 70% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their logical thinking abilities. The predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 73%; and 74% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their science attitudes toward chemistry were associated. Statistically significant on students’ perceptions of their chemistry learning classroom environment and their science attitude toward chemistry when using the MCI and TOCRA, the predictive efficiency (R2) values indicated that 72% and 74% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their chemistry classroom climate, consequently. Suggestions that supporting chemistry or science teachers from science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in addressing complex teaching and learning issues related instructional design to develop, teach, and assess traditional are important strategies with a focus on STEM education instructional method.

Keywords: development, the instructional design model, students learning achievement motives, science attitudes with STEM educational model, stoichiometry issue, chemistry classes, genders

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Authors: Staci McGill, Morgan Hayes, Robert Coleman, Kimberly Tumlin

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The interaction and relationships between horses and humans have been shown to be positive for physical, mental, and emotional wellbeing, however equine spaces where these interactions occur do include some environmental risks. There are 1.7 million jobs associated with the equine industry in the United States in addition to recreational riders, owners, and volunteers who interact with horses for substantial amounts of time daily inside built structures. One specialized facility, an “indoor arena” is a semi-indoor structure used for exercising horses and exhibiting skills during competitive events. Typically, indoor arenas have a sand or sand mixture as the footing or surface over which the horse travels, and increasingly, silica sand is being recommended due to its durable nature. It was previously identified in a semi-qualitative survey that the majority of individuals using indoor arenas have environmental concerns with dust. 27% (90/333) of respondents reported respiratory issues or allergy-like symptoms while riding with 21.6% (71/329) of respondents reporting these issues while standing on the ground observing or teaching. Frequent headaches and/or lightheadedness was reported in 9.9% (33/333) of respondents while riding and in 4.3% 14/329 while on the ground. Horse respiratory health is also negatively impacted with 58% (194/333) of respondents indicating horses cough during or after time in the indoor arena. Instructors who spent time in indoor arenas self-reported more respiratory issues than those individuals who identified as smokers, highlighting the health relevance of understanding these unique structures. To further elucidate environmental concerns and self-reported health issues, 35 facility assessments were conducted in a cross-sectional sampling design in the states of Kentucky and Ohio (USA). Data, including air speeds, were collected in a grid fashion at 15 points within the indoor arenas and then mapped spatially using krigging in ARCGIS. From the spatial maps, standard variances were obtained and differences were analyzed using multivariant analysis of variances (MANOVA) and analysis of variances (ANOVA). There were no differences for the variance of the air speeds in the spaces for facility orientation, presence and type of roof ventilation, climate control systems, amount of openings, or use of fans. Variability of the air speeds in the indoor arenas was 0.25 or less. Further analysis yielded that average air speeds within the indoor arenas were lower than 100 ft/min (0.51 m/s) which is considered still air in other animal facilities. The lack of air movement means that dust clearance is reliant on particle size and weight rather than ventilation. While further work on respirable dust is necessary, this characterization of the semi-indoor environment where animals and humans interact indicates insufficient air flow to eliminate or reduce respiratory hazards. Finally, engineering solutions to address air movement deficiencies within indoor arenas or mitigate particulate matter are critical to ensuring exposures do not lead to adverse health outcomes for equine professionals, volunteers, participants, and horses within these spaces.

Keywords: equine, indoor arena, ventilation, particulate matter, respiratory health

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Momoka Sunohara, Ashley J. Lemieux, Esther Yakobov, Andrew G. Ryder, Tomas Jurcik

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Immigration brings changes in many aspects of an individual's life, from social support dynamics, to housing and language, as well as difficulties with regards to discrimination, trauma, and loss. Past research has mostly emphasized individual differences in mental health and has neglected the impact of social-ecological context, such as acculturation and ethnic density. Purpose: The present study aimed to assess the relationship between variables associated with social integration such as perceived ethnic density and ways of coping, as well as psychological adjustment in a rapidly growing non-visible minority group of immigrants in Canada. Data: A small subset of an archival data from our previously published study was reanalyzed with additional variables. Data included information from 269 Russian-Speaking immigrants in Montreal, Canada. Method: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) investigated the relationship between two sets of variables. SAS PROC CANCORR was used to conduct CCA on a set of social integration variables, including ethnic density, discrimination, social support, family functioning, and acculturation, and a set of psychological well-being variables, including distress, depression, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. In addition, canonical redundancy analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of variances of original variables explained by their own canonical variates. Results: Significance tests using Rao’s F statistics indicated that the first two canonical correlations (i.e., r1 = 0.64, r2 = 0.40) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). Additionally, canonical redundancy analysis showed that the first two well-being canonical variates explained separately 62.9% and 12.8% variances of the standardized well-being variables, whereas the first two social integration canonical variates explained separately 14.7% and 16.7% variances of the standardized social integration variables. These results support the selection of the first two canonical correlations. Then, we interpreted the derived canonical variates based on their canonical structure (i.e., correlations with original variables). Two observations can be concluded. First, individuals who have adequate social support, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and reframing are more likely to have better self-esteem, greater life satisfaction and experience less feelings of depression or distress. Second, individuals who feel discriminated yet rate higher on a mainstream acculturation scale, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and using spirituality, while using less passive strategies are more likely to have better life satisfaction but also higher degree of depression. Implications: This model may serve to explain the complex interactions that exist between social and emotional adjustment and aid in facilitating the integration of individuals immigrating into new communities. The same group may experience greater depression but paradoxically improved life satisfaction associated with their coping process. Such findings need to be placed in the context of Russian cultural values. For instance, some Russian-speakers may value the expression of negative emotions with significant others during the integration process; this in turn may make negative emotions more salient, but also facilitate a greater sense of family and community connection, as well as life satisfaction.

Keywords: acculturation, ethnic density, mental health, Russian-speaking

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Authors: Chengxuan Geng, Yizhou E

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This paper mainly examines the changes in the relationship between earnings management and audit quality before and after financial crisis in the context of American firms from 2005 to 2010. Based on a sample of 3584 firm year observations, we find that there are changes concerning the relation between accrual-based earnings management and audit quality during the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. However, the results do not provide enough evidence with regard to the variances in the association between real activities earnings management and audit quality during these two periods.

Keywords: audit quality, earnings management, financial crisis, relationship

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Authors: N. A. Mokhtar, A. G. Hussin, Y. Z. Zubairi

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This paper proposes a new simultaneous simple linear functional relationship model by assuming equal error variances. We derive the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in the simultaneous model and the covariance. We show by simulation study the small bias values of the parameters suggest the suitability of the estimation method. As an illustration, the proposed simultaneous model is applied to real data of the wind direction and wave direction measured by two different instruments.

Keywords: simultaneous linear functional relationship model, Fisher information matrix, parameter estimation, circular variables

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: P. Thachitasing, N. Jansawang, W. Rakrai, T. Santiboon

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The aim of this study is to investigate of the comparing the instructional design models between the Think-Pair-Share and Conventional Learning (5E Inquiry Model) Processes to enhance students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills on stoichiometry issue for concerning the 2-instructional method with a sample consisted of 80 students in 2 classes at the 11th grade level in Chaturaphak Phiman Ratchadaphisek School. Students’ different learning outcomes in chemistry classes with the cluster random sampling technique were used. Instructional Methods designed with the 40-experimenl student group by Think-Pair-Share process and the 40-controlling student group by the conventional learning (5E Inquiry Model) method. These learning different groups were obtained using the 5 instruments; the 5-lesson instructional plans of Think-Pair-Share and STEM Education Method, students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills were assessed with the pretest and posttest techniques, students’ outcomes of their instructional the Think-Pair-Share (TPSM) and the STEM Education Methods were compared. Statistically significant was differences with the paired t-test and F-test between posttest and pretest technique of the whole students in chemistry classes were found, significantly. Associations between student learning outcomes in chemistry and two methods of their learning to students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills also were found. The use of two methods for this study is revealed that the students perceive their learning achievements to their problem solving skills to be differently learning achievements in different groups are guiding practical improvements in chemistry classrooms to assist teacher in implementing effective approaches for improving instructional methods. Students’ learning achievements of mean average scores to their controlling group with the Think-Pair-Share Model (TPSM) are lower than experimental student group for the STEM education method, evidence significantly. The E1/E2 process were revealed evidence of 82.56/80.44, and 83.02/81.65 which results based on criteria are higher than of 80/80 standard level with the IOC, consequently. The predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 61% and 67% and indicate that 63% and 67% of the variances in chemistry classes to their learning achievements on posttest in chemistry classes of the variances in students’ problem solving skills to their learning achievements to their chemistry classrooms on Stoichiometry issue with the posttest were attributable to their different learning outcomes for the TPSM and STEMe instructional methods.

Keywords: comparisons, students’ learning achievements, think-pare-share model (TPSM), stem education, problem solving skills, chemistry classes, stoichiometry issue

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Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

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The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

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Authors: Suphaporn Rattanaphinanchai

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The purpose of this study is to 1) describe and analyze the travel motivations of tourists visiting Phi Phi Islands after the Tsunami in 2004 and 2) to better understand whether there are significant differences in the tourists’ motivations in visiting Phi Phi Island after the Tsunami hit across tourists with different demographic profile. This study used Phi Phi Islands, which was damaged by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as a case study. The instrument used in the present study is a self-administered questionnaire. A survey with 200 questionnaires was collected in May - December, 2015. Descriptive statistics, Independent Sample Mean T-tests, and Analysis of Variances was used to analyze the data. The result of the study showed that beauty of nature, good climate, and relaxing atmosphere motivated tourists in visiting Phi Phi Islands after the tsunami.

Keywords: motivation, Thailand, Thai tourism, Thai beaches

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Authors: Hannah F. Opayinka, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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This study is an extension of a prior study on the modification of the existing m-out-of-n (moon) bootstrap method for heavy-tailed distributions in which modified m-out-of-n (mmoon) was proposed as an alternative method to the existing moon technique. In this study, both moon and mmoon techniques were applied to two real income datasets which followed Lognormal and Pareto distributions respectively with finite variances. The performances of these two techniques were compared using Standard Error (SE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The findings showed that mmoon outperformed moon bootstrap in terms of smaller SEs and RMSEs for all the sample sizes considered in the two datasets.

Keywords: Bootstrap, income data, lognormal distribution, Pareto distribution

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Authors: Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Khaled Alghamdi, Richard O. Jenkins, Parvez I. Haris

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Background: Physical activity is an important factor in the treatment and prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Reduction in HbA1c level, an important diabetes biomarker, was reported in patients who increased their daily physical activity. Although the ambient temperature was reported to be positively correlated to a negative impact on health and increase the incidences of diabetes, the exposure to bright sunlight was recently found to be associated with enhanced insulin sensitivity and improved beta-cell function. How Ramadan alters physical activity, and especially sunlight exposure, has not been adequately investigated. Aim: This study aimed to assess the physical activity and sun exposure of Saudis with T2DM over different periods (before, during, and after Ramadan) and related this to HbA1c levels. Methods: This study recruited 82 Saudis with T2DM, who chose to fast during Ramadan, from the Endocrine and Diabetic Centre of Al Iman General Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Ethical approvals for this study were obtained from De Montfort University and Saudi Ministry of Health. Physical activity and sun exposure were assessed by a self-administered questionnaire. Physical activity was estimated using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), while the sun exposure was assessed by asking the patients about their hours per week of direct exposure to the sun, and daily hours spent outdoors. Blood samples were collected in each period for measuring HbA1c. Results: Low physical activity was observed in more than 60% of the patients, with no significant changes between periods. There were no significant variances between periods in the daily hours spent outdoors and the total number of weekly hours of direct exposure to the sun. The majority of patients reported only few hours of exposure to the sun (1h or less per week) and time spent outdoors (1h or less per day). The mean HbA1c significantly changed between periods (P = 0.001), with lowest level during Ramadan. There were significant differences in the mean HbA1c between the groups for the level of physical activity (P < 0.001), with significant lower mean HbA1c in the higher-level group. There were no significant variances in the mean of HbA1c between the groups for the daily hours spent outdoors. The mean HbA1c of the patients, who reported never in their total weekly hours of exposure to the sun, was significantly lower than the mean HbA1c of those who reported 1 hour or less (P = 0.001). Conclusion: Physical inactivity was prevalent among the study population with very little exposure to the sun or time spent outdoors. Higher level of physical activity was associated with lower mean HbA1c levels. Encouraging T2DM patients to achieve the recommended levels of physical activity may help them to obtain greater benefits of Ramadan fasting, such as reducing their HbA1c levels. The impact of low direct exposure to the sun and the time spent outdoors needs to be further investigated in both healthy and diabetic patients.

Keywords: diabetes, fasting, physical activity, sunlight, Ramadan

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Authors: Cherrie Lowe

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The TrendCare Patient Dependency System is currently utilized by a large number of Maternity Services across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. In 2012, 2013, and 2014 validation studies were initiated in all three countries to validate the acuity tools used for Women in Labour, and Postnatal Mothers and Babies. This paper will present the findings of the validation study. Aim: The aim of this study was to; Identify if the care hours provided by the TrendCare Acuity System was an accurate reflection of the care required by Women and Babies. Obtain evidence of changes required to acuity indicators and/or category timings to ensure the TrendCare acuity system remains reliable and valid across a range of Maternity care models in three countries. Method: A non-experimental action research methodology was used across four District Health Boards in New Zealand, two large public Australian Maternity services and a large tertiary Maternity service in Singapore. Standardized data collection forms and timing devices were used to collect Midwife contact times with Women and Babies included in the study. Rejection processes excluded samples where care was not completed/rationed. The variances between actual timed Midwife/Mother/Baby contact and actual Trend Care acuity times were identified and investigated. Results: 87.5% (18) of TrendCare acuity category timings matched the actual timings recorded for Midwifery care. 12.5% (3) of TrendCare night duty categories provided less minutes of care than the actual timings. 100% of Labour Ward TrendCare categories matched actual timings for Midwifery care. The actual times given for assistance to New Zealand independent Midwives in Labour Ward showed a significant deviation to previous studies demonstrating the need for additional time allocations in Trend Care. Conclusion: The results demonstrated the importance of regularly validating the Trend Care category timings with the care hours required, as variances to models of care and length of stay in Maternity units have increased Midwifery workloads on the night shift. The level of assistance provided by the core labour ward staff to the Independent Midwife has increased substantially. Outcomes: As a consequence of this study changes were made to the night duty TrendCare Maternity categories, additional acuity indicators developed and times for assisting independent Midwives increased. The updated TrendCare version was delivered to Maternity services in 2014.

Keywords: maternity, acuity, research, nursing workloads

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Authors: Jeoungsu Na, Jaehawn Lee, Changil Hong, Suhee Kim

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A molecular dynamics simulation in a converging-diverging nozzle was performed to study molecular collisions and their influence to average flow velocity according to a variety of vacuum levels. The static pressures and the dynamic pressure exerted by the molecule collision on the selected walls were compared to figure out the intensity variances of the directional flows. With pressure differences constant between the entrance and the exit of the nozzle, the numerical experiment was performed for molecular velocities and directional flows. The result shows that the velocities increased at the nozzle exit as the vacuum level gets higher in that area because less molecular collisions.

Keywords: cavitation, molecular collision, nozzle, vacuum, velocity increase

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Authors: Gül Ebru Orhun

Abstract:

A half diallel crossing design was carried out during 2011 and 2012 growing seasons under Çanakkale-Turkey ecological conditions. In this research, 20 F1 maize hybrids obtained by 6x6 half diallel crossing were used. Gene action for protein content and grain yield traits were explored in half set involving six elite inbred lines. According to the results diallel analysis dominance and additive gene variances were determined for protein content. Variance/Co-variance graphs revealed for grain yield and protein content traits. In this study, inheritance of grain yield and protein content demonstrated over-dominance type of gene action.

Keywords: protein, maize, inheritance, gene action

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Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Jefrey Pilusa, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The current study investigated the effect of catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio on biodiesel production by using central composite design. Biodiesel was produced by transesterification using sodium hydroxide as a homogeneous catalyst, a laboratory scale reactor consisting of flat bottom flask mounts with a reflux condenser and a heating plate was used to produce biodiesel. Key parameters, including, time, temperature and mixing rate were kept constant at 60 minutes, 60 ^oC and 600 RPM, respectively. From the results obtained, it was observed that the biodiesel yield depends on catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio. The highest yield of 50.65% was obtained at catalyst ratio of 0.5 wt.% and methanol to oil mole ratio 10.5. The analysis of variances of biodiesel yield showed the R Squared value of 0.8387. A quadratic mathematical model was developed to predict the biodiesel yield in the specified parameters ranges.

Keywords: ANOVA, biodiesel, catalyst, CCD, transesterification

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Authors: Shruti Soudi, Anushka Nayak

Abstract:

Altruism is a voluntary helping behavior that is not motivated by rewards. The empathy-altruism hypothesis states that altruistic behavior results from empathy, a constant emotional response between the helper and the individual in need. Individual variances in familiar ways of thinking, feeling, and acting are called personalities. The personality of an individual determines their behavior. More importantly, Adler was among the first psychologists to document the importance of birth order on personality. The present study aims to understand the influence of personality and birth order on altruism. A questionnaire consisting of standardized tools to measure altruism (Hindi Self Report Altruism Scale) and personality (Big Five Personality Inventory) will aid in studying the relationship between these variables among young adults in India. A statistical analysis of the data will be completed using ANOVA and T-Test in the SPSS Software.

Keywords: altruism, personality, birth order, ANOVA, young adults

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Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Jefrey Pilusa, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The current study investigated the effect of catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio on biodiesel production by using central composite design. Biodiesel was produced by transesterification using sodium hydroxide as a homogeneous catalyst, a laboratory scale reactor consisting of flat bottom flask mounts with a reflux condenser, and a heating plate was used to produce biodiesel. Key parameters, including time, temperature, and mixing rate was kept constant at 60 minutes, 60 ^oC and 600 RPM, respectively. From the results obtained, it was observed that the biodiesel yield depends on catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio. The highest yield of 50.65% was obtained at catalyst ratio of 0.5 wt.% and methanol to oil mole ratio 10.5. The analysis of variances of biodiesel yield showed the R Squared value of 0.8387. A quadratic mathematical model was developed to predict the biodiesel yield in the specified parameters ranges.

Keywords: ANOVA, biodiesel, catalyst, transesterification, central composite design

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Authors: Wael M. Bazzi, Amir Rastegarnia, Azam Khalili

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the issue of reliability of measurements in distributed adaptive estimation problem. To this aim, we assume a sensor network with different observation noise variance among the sensors and propose new estimation method based on incremental distributed least mean-square (IDLMS) algorithm. The proposed method contains two phases: I) Estimation of each sensors observation noise variance, and II) Estimation of the desired parameter using the estimated observation variances. To deal with the reliability of measurements, in the second phase of the proposed algorithm, the step-size parameter is adjusted for each sensor according to its observation noise variance. As our simulation results show, the proposed algorithm considerably improves the performance of the IDLMS algorithm in the same condition.

Keywords: adaptive filter, distributed estimation, sensor network, IDLMS algorithm

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Authors: Mariam Shah

Abstract:

Stereotypes are not generally considered to be an acceptable influence upon any decision making process, particularly those involving judicial decision making outcomes. Yet, we are confronted with an uncomfortable truth that stereotypes may be operating to influence judicial outcomes. Variances in sentencing outcomes are not easily explained away by criminological, psychological, or sociological theorem, but may be answered via qualitative research produced within the field of phenomenology. This paper will examine the current literature pertaining to the effect of stereotypes on the criminal justice system within the UK, and will also discuss what the implications are for stereotypical influences upon decision making in the criminal justice system. This paper will give particular focus to shoplifting offences dealt with in UK criminal courts, but this research has long reaching implications for the criminal process more generally.

Keywords: decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, shoplifting, stereotypes

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Authors: Linyi Fan, C.J. Schumaker

Abstract:

Background: Biomedical efforts to treat Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have typically produced mixed to poor results, while more lifestyle-focused treatments such as exercise may fare better than existing biomedical treatments. A few promising studies have indicated that activities of daily life (ADL) may be a useful way of predicting AD. However, the existing cross-sectional studies fail to show how functional-related issues such as ADL in early years predict AD and how social factors influence health either in addition to or in interaction with individual risk factors. This study would helpbetterscreening and early treatments for the elderly population and healthcare practice. The findings have significance academically and practically in terms of creating positive social change. Methodology: The purpose of this quantitative historical, correlational study was to examine the relationship between early years’ ADL and the development of AD in later years. The studyincluded 4,526participantsderived fromRAND HRS dataset. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal household survey data set that is available forresearchof retirement and health among the elderly in the United States. The sample was selected by the completion of survey questionnaire about AD and dementia. The variablethat indicates whether the participant has been diagnosed with AD was the dependent variable. The ADL indices and changes in ADL were the independent variables. A four-step multilevel regression model approach was utilized to address the research questions. Results: Amongst 4,526 patients who completed the AD and dementia questionnaire, 144 (3.1%) were diagnosed with AD. Of the 4,526 participants, 3,465 (76.6%) have high school and upper education degrees,4,074 (90.0%) were above poverty threshold. The model evaluatedthe effect of ADL and change in ADL on onset of AD in late years while allowing the intercept of the model to vary by level of education. The results suggested that the only significant predictor of the onset of AD was changes in early years’ ADL (b = 20.253, z = 2.761, p < .05). However, the result of the sensitivity analysis (b = 7.562, z = 1.900, p =.058), which included more control variables and increased the observation period of ADL, are not supported this finding. The model also estimated whether the variances of random effect vary by Level-2 variables. The results suggested that the variances associated with random slopes were approximately zero, suggesting that the relationship between early years’ ADL were not influenced bysociodemographic factors. Conclusion: The finding indicated that an increase in changes in ADL leads to an increase in the probability of onset AD in the future. However, this finding is not support in a broad observation period model. The study also failed to reject the hypothesis that the sociodemographic factors explained significant amounts of variance in random effect. Recommendations were then made for future research and practice based on these limitations and the significance of the findings.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, epidemiology, moderation, multilevel modeling

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Authors: Roshani S. Golhar, Neerajkumar S. Sathawane, Snehal Dongre

Abstract:

Background and objectives: As the, cardiovascular illnesses increasing and becoming cause of mortality worldwide, killing around lot of people each year. Arrhythmia is a type of cardiac illness characterized by a change in the linearity of the heartbeat. The goal of this study is to develop novel deep learning algorithms for successfully interpreting arrhythmia using a single second segment. Because the ECG signal indicates unique electrical heart activity across time, considerable changes between time intervals are detected. Such variances, as well as the limited number of learning data available for each arrhythmia, make standard learning methods difficult, and so impede its exaggeration. Conclusions: The proposed method was able to outperform several state-of-the-art methods. Also proposed technique is an effective and convenient approach to deep learning for heartbeat interpretation, that could be probably used in real-time healthcare monitoring systems

Keywords: electrocardiogram, ECG classification, neural networks, convolutional neural networks, portable document format

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Authors: E. Krishna

Abstract:

An Extended form of exponential distribution using Marshall and Olkin method is introduced.The location scale family of these distributions is considered. For location scale free family, exact expressions for single and product moments of upper record statistics are derived. The mean, variance and covariance of record values are computed for various values of the shape parameter. Using these the BLUE's of location and scale parameters are derived.The variances and covariance of estimates are obtained.Through Monte Carlo simulation the condence intervals for location and scale parameters are constructed.The Best liner unbiased Predictor (BLUP) of future records are also discussed.

Keywords: BLUE, BLUP, condence interval, Marshall-Olkin distribution, Monte Carlo simulation, prediction of future records, record statistics

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