Search results for: interest rate risk
Commenced in January 2007
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Search results for: interest rate risk

654 Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis Modulates Antioxidant Capacity of in vitro Propagated Hyssop, Hyssopus officinalis L.

Authors: Maria P. Geneva, Ira V. Stancheva, Marieta G. Hristozkova, Roumiana D. Vasilevska-Ivanova, Mariana T. Sichanova, Janet R. Mincheva

Abstract:

Hyssopus officinalis L., Lamiaceae, commonly called hyssop, is an aromatic, semi-evergreen, woody-based, shrubby perennial plant. Hyssop is a good expectorant and antiviral herb commonly used to treat respiratory conditions such as influenza, sinus infections, colds, and bronchitis. Most of its medicinal properties are attributed to the essential oil of hyssop. The study was conducted to evaluate the influence of inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi of in vitro propagated hyssop plants on the: activities of antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase, catalase, guaiacol peroxidase and ascorbate peroxidase; accumulation of non-enzymatic antioxidants total phenols and flavonoid, water-soluble soluble antioxidant metabolites expressed as ascorbic acid; the antioxidant potential of hyssop methanol extracts assessed by two common methods: free radical scavenging activity using free stable radical (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl, DPPH• and ferric reducing antioxidant power FRAP in flowers and leaves. The successfully adapted to field conditions in vitro plants (survival rate 95%) were inoculated with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Claroideoglomus claroideum, ref. EEZ 54). It was established that the activities of enzymes with antioxidant capacity (superoxide dismutase, catalase, guaiacol peroxidase and ascorbate peroxidase) were significantly higher in leaves than in flowers in both control and mycorrhized plants. In flowers and leaves of inoculated plants, the antioxidant enzymes activity were lower than in non-inoculated plants, only in SOD activity, there was no difference. The content of low molecular metabolites with antioxidant capacity as total phenols, total flavonoids, and water soluble antioxidants was higher in inoculated plants. There were no significant differences between control and inoculated plants both for FRAP and DPPH antioxidant activity. According to plant essential oil content, there was no difference between non-inoculated and inoculated plants. Based on our results we could suggest that antioxidant capacity of in vitro propagated hyssop plant under conditions of cultivation is determined by the phenolic compounds-total phenols and flavonoids as well as by the levels of water-soluble metabolites with antioxidant potential. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted with financial support from National Science Fund at the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science, Project DN06/7 17.12.16.

Keywords: antioxidant enzymes, antioxidant metabolites, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, Hyssopus officinalis L.

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653 Scoring System for the Prognosis of Sepsis Patients in Intensive Care Units

Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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652 Assessment of Rainfall Erosivity, Comparison among Methods: Case of Kakheti, Georgia

Authors: Mariam Tsitsagi, Ana Berdzenishvili

Abstract:

Rainfall intensity change is one of the main indicators of climate change. It has a great influence on agriculture as one of the main factors causing soil erosion. Splash and sheet erosion are one of the most prevalence and harmful for agriculture. It is invisible for an eye at first stage, but the process will gradually move to stream cutting erosion. Our study provides the assessment of rainfall erosivity potential with the use of modern research methods in Kakheti region. The region is the major provider of wheat and wine in the country. Kakheti is located in the eastern part of Georgia and characterized quite a variety of natural conditions. The climate is dry subtropical. For assessment of the exact rate of rainfall erosion potential several year data of rainfall with short intervals are needed. Unfortunately, from 250 active metro stations running during the Soviet period only 55 of them are active now and 5 stations in Kakheti region respectively. Since 1936 we had data on rainfall intensity in this region, and rainfall erosive potential is assessed, in some old papers, but since 1990 we have no data about this factor, which in turn is a necessary parameter for determining the rainfall erosivity potential. On the other hand, researchers and local communities suppose that rainfall intensity has been changing and the number of haily days has also been increasing. However, finding a method that will allow us to determine rainfall erosivity potential as accurate as possible in Kakheti region is very important. The study period was divided into three sections: 1936-1963; 1963-1990 and 1990-2015. Rainfall erosivity potential was determined by the scientific literature and old meteorological stations’ data for the first two periods. And it is known that in eastern Georgia, at the boundary between steppe and forest zones, rainfall erosivity in 1963-1990 was 20-75% higher than that in 1936-1963. As for the third period (1990-2015), for which we do not have data of rainfall intensity. There are a variety of studies, where alternative ways of calculating the rainfall erosivity potential based on lack of data are discussed e.g.based on daily rainfall data, average annual rainfall data and the elevation of the area, etc. It should be noted that these methods give us a totally different results in case of different climatic conditions and sometimes huge errors in some cases. Three of the most common methods were selected for our research. Each of them was tested for the first two sections of the study period. According to the outcomes more suitable method for regional climatic conditions was selected, and after that, we determined rainfall erosivity potential for the third section of our study period with use of the most successful method. Outcome data like attribute tables and graphs was specially linked to the database of Kakheti, and appropriate thematic maps were created. The results allowed us to analyze the rainfall erosivity potential changes from 1936 to the present and make the future prospect. We have successfully implemented a method which can also be use for some another region of Georgia.

Keywords: erosivity potential, Georgia, GIS, Kakheti, rainfall

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651 Environmental Impacts Assessment of Power Generation via Biomass Gasification Systems: Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Approach for Tars Release

Authors: Grâce Chidikofan, François Pinta, A. Benoist, G. Volle, J. Valette

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: biomass gasification systems may be relevant for decentralized power generation from recoverable agricultural and wood residues available in rural areas. In recent years, many systems have been implemented in all over the world as especially in Cambodgia, India. Although they have many positive effects, these systems can also affect the environment and human health. Indeed, during the process of biomass gasification, black wastewater containing tars are produced and generally discharged in the local environment either into the rivers or on soil. However, in most environmental assessment studies of biomass gasification systems, the impact of these releases are underestimated, due to the difficulty of identification of their chemical substances. This work deal with the analysis of the environmental impacts of tars from wood gasification in terms of human toxicity cancer effect, human toxicity non-cancer effect, and freshwater ecotoxicity. Methodology: A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach was adopted. The inventory of tars chemicals substances was based on experimental data from a downdraft gasification system. The composition of six samples from two batches of raw materials: one batch made of tree wood species (oak+ plane tree +pine) at 25 % moisture content and the second batch made of oak at 11% moisture content. The tests were carried out for different gasifier load rates, respectively in the range 50-75% and 50-100%. To choose the environmental impacts assessment method, we compared the methods available in SIMAPRO tool (8.2.0) which are taking into account most of the chemical substances. The environmental impacts for 1kg of tars discharged were characterized by ILCD 2011+ method (V.1.08). Findings Experimental results revealed 38 important chemical substances in varying proportion from one test to another. Only 30 are characterized by ILCD 2011+ method, which is one of the best performing methods. The results show that wood species or moisture content have no significant impact on human toxicity noncancer effect (HTNCE) and freshwater ecotoxicity (FWE) for water release. For human toxicity cancer effect (HTCE), a small gap is observed between impact factors of the two batches, either 3.08E-7 CTUh/kg against 6.58E-7 CTUh/kg. On the other hand, it was found that the risk of negative effects is higher in case of tar release into water than on soil for all impact categories. Indeed, considering the set of samples, the average impact factor obtained for HTNCE varies respectively from 1.64 E-7 to 1.60E-8 CTUh/kg. For HTCE, the impact factor varies between 4.83E-07 CTUh/kg and 2.43E-08 CTUh/kg. The variability of those impact factors is relatively low for these two impact categories. Concerning FWE, the variability of impact factor is very high. It is 1.3E+03 CTUe/kg for tars release into water against 2.01E+01 CTUe/kg for tars release on soil. Statement concluding: The results of this study show that the environmental impacts of tars emission of biomass gasification systems can be consequent and it is important to investigate the ways to reduce them. For environmental research, these results represent an important step of a global environmental assessment of the studied systems. It could be used to better manage the wastewater containing tars to reduce as possible the impacts of numerous still running systems all over the world.

Keywords: biomass gasification, life cycle analysis, LCA, environmental impact, tars

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650 Social Problems and Gender Wage Gap Faced by Working Women in Readymade Garment Sector of Pakistan

Authors: Narjis Kahtoon

Abstract:

The issue of the wage discrimination on the basis of gender and social problem has been a significant research problem for several decades. Whereas lots of have explored reasons for the persistence of an inequality in the wages of male and female, none has successfully explained away the entire differentiation. The wage discrimination on the basis of gender and social problem of working women is a global issue. Although inequality in political and economic and social make-up of countries all over the world, the gender wage discrimination, and social constraint is present. The aim of the research is to examine the gender wage discrimination and social constraint from an international perspective and to determine whether any pattern exists among cultural dimensions of a country and the man and women remuneration gap in Readymade Garment Sector of Pakistan. Population growth rate is significant indicator used to explain the change in population and play a crucial point in the economic development of a country. In Pakistan, readymade garment sector consists of small, medium and large sized firms. With an estimated 30 percent of the workforce in textile- Garment is females’. Readymade garment industry is a labor intensive industry and relies on the skills of individual workers and provides highest value addition in the textile sector. In the Garment sector, female workers are concentrated in poorly paid, labor-intensive down-stream production (readymade garments, linen, towels, etc.), while male workers dominate capital- intensive (ginning, spinning and weaving) processes. Gender wage discrimination and social constraint are reality in Pakistan Labor Market. This research allows us not only to properly detect the size of gender wage discrimination and social constraint but to also fully understand its consequences in readymade garment sector of Pakistan. Furthermore, research will evaluated this measure for the three main clusters like Lahore, Karachi, and Faisalabad. These data contain complete details of male and female workers and supervisors in the readymade garment sector of Pakistan. These sources of information provide a unique opportunity to reanalyze the previous finding in the literature. The regression analysis focused on the standard 'Mincerian' earning equation and estimates it separately by gender, the research will also imply the cultural dimensions developed by Hofstede (2001) to profile a country’s cultural status and compare those cultural dimensions to the wage inequalities. Readymade garment of Pakistan is one of the important sectors since its products have huge demand at home and abroad. These researches will a major influence on the measures undertaken to design a public policy regarding wage discrimination and social constraint in readymade garment sector of Pakistan.

Keywords: gender wage differentials, decomposition, garment, cultural

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649 The Surgical Trainee Perception of the Operating Room Educational Environment

Authors: Neal Rupani

Abstract:

Background: A surgical trainee has limited learning opportunities in the operating room in order to gain an ever-increasing standard of surgical skill, competency, and proficiency. These opportunities continue to decline due to numerous factors such as the European Working Time Directive and increasing requirement for service provision. It is therefore imperative to obtain the highest educational value from each educational opportunity. A measure that has yet to be validated in England on surgical trainees called the Operating Room Educational Environment Measure (OREEM) has been developed to identify and evaluate each component of the educational environment with a view to steer future change in optimising educational events in theatre. Aims: The aims of the study are to assess the reliability of the OREEM within England and to evaluate the surgical trainee’s objective perspective of the current operating room educational environment within one region within England. Methods: Using a quantitative study approach, data was collected over one month from surgical trainees within Health Education Thames Valley (Oxford) using an online questionnaire consisting of demographic data, the OREEM, a global satisfaction score. Results: 140 surgical trainees were invited to the study, with an online response of 54 participants (response rate = 38.6%). The OREEM was shown to have good internal consistency (α = 0.906, variables = 40) and unidimensionality, along with all four of its subgroups. The mean OREEM score was 79.16%. The areas highlighted for improvement predominantly focused on improving learning opportunities (average subscale score = 72.9%) and conducting pre- and post-operative teaching (average score = 70.4%). The trainee perception is most satisfactory for the level of supervision and workload (average subscale score = 82.87%). There was no differences found between gender (U = 191.5, p = 0.535) or type of hospital (U = 258.0, p = 0.099), but the learning environment was favoured towards senior trainees (U = 223.5, p = 0.017). There was strong correlation between OREEM and the global satisfaction score (r = 0.755, p<0.001). Conclusions: The OREEM was shown to be reliable in measuring the educational environment in the operating room. This can be used to identify potentially modifiable components for improvement and as an audit tool to ensure high standards are being met. The current perception of the education environment in Health Education Thames Valley is satisfactory, and modifiable internal and external factors such as reducing service provision requirements, empowering trainees to plan lists, creating a team-working ethic between all personnel, and using tools that maximise learning from each operation have been identified to improve learning in the future. There is a favourable attitude to use of such improvement tools, especially for those currently dissatisfied.

Keywords: education environment, surgery, post-graduate education, OREEM

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648 Non Pharmacological Approach to IBS (Irritable Bowel Syndrome)

Authors: A. Aceranti, L. Moretti, S. Vernocchi, M. Colorato, P. Caristia

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Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is the association between abdominal pain, abdominal distension and intestinal dysfunction for recurring periods. About 10% of the world's population has IBS at any given time in their life, and about 200 people per 100,000 receive an initial diagnosis of IBS each year. Persistent pain is recognized as one of the most pervasive and challenging problems facing the medical community today. Persistent pain is considered more as a complex pathophysiological, diagnostic and therapeutic situation rather than as a persistent symptom. The low efficiency of conventional drug treatments has led many doctors to become interested in the non-drug alternative treatment of IBS, especially for more severe cases. Patients and providers are often dissatisfied with the available drug remedies and often seek complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), a unique and holistic approach to treatment that is not a typical component of conventional medicine. Osteopathic treatment may be of specific interest in patients with IBS. Osteopathy is a complementary health approach that emphasizes the role of the musculoskeletal system in health and promotes optimal function of the body's tissues using a variety of manual techniques to improve body function. Osteopathy has been defined as a patient-centered health discipline based on the principles of interrelation between body structure and function, the body's innate capacity for self-healing and the adoption of a whole person health approach. mainly by practicing manual processing. Studies reported that osteopathic manual treatment (OMT) reduced IBS symptoms, such as abdominal pain, constipation, diarrhea, and improved general well-being. The focus in the treatment of IBS with osteopathy has gone beyond simple spinal alignment, to directly address the abnormal physiology of the body using a series of direct and indirect techniques. The topic of this study was chosen for different reasons: due to the large number of people involved who suffer from this disorder and for the dysfunction itself, since nowadays there is still little clarity about the best type of treatment and, above all, to its origin. The visceral component in the osteopathic field is still a world to be discovered, although it is related to a large part of patient series, it has contents that affect numerous disciplines and this makes it an enigma yet to be solved. The study originated in the didactic practice where the curiosity of a topic is marked that, even today, no one is able to explain and, above all, cure definitively. The main purpose of this study is to try to create a good basis on the osteopathic discipline for subsequent studies that can be exhaustive in the best possible way, resolving some doubts about which treatment modality can be used with more relevance. The path was decided to structure it in such a way that 3 types of osteopathic treatment are used on 3 groups of people who will be selected after completing a questionnaire, which will deem them suitable for the study. They will, in fact, be divided into three groups where: - the first group was given a visceral osteopathic treatment. - The second group was given a manual osteopathic treatment of neurological stimulation. - The third group received a placebo treatment. At the end of the treatment, questionnaires will be re-proposed respectively one week after the session and one month after the treatment from which any data will be collected that will demonstrate the effectiveness or otherwise of the treatment received. The sample of 50 patients examined underwent an oral interview to evaluate the inclusion and exclusion criteria to participate in the study. Of the 50 patients questioned, 17 people who underwent different osteopathic techniques were eligible for the study. Comparing the data related to the first assessment of tenderness and frequency of symptoms with the data related to the first follow-up shows a significant improvement in the score assigned to the different questions, especially in the neurogenic and visceral groups. We are aware of the fact that it is a study performed on a small sample of patients, and this is a penalizing factor. We remain, however, convinced that having obtained good results in terms of subjective improvement in the quality of life of the subjects, it would be very interesting to re-propose the study on a larger sample and fill the gaps.

Keywords: IBS, osteopathy, colon, intestinal inflammation

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647 Liquid Food Sterilization Using Pulsed Electric Field

Authors: Tanmaya Pradhan, K. Midhun, M. Joy Thomas

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Increasing the shelf life and improving the quality are important objectives for the success of packaged liquid food industry. One of the methods by which this can be achieved is by deactivating the micro-organisms present in the liquid food through pasteurization. Pasteurization is done by heating, but some serious disadvantages such as the reduction in food quality, flavour, taste, colour, etc. were observed because of heat treatment, which leads to the development of newer methods instead of pasteurization such as treatment using UV radiation, high pressure, nuclear irradiation, pulsed electric field, etc. In recent years the use of the pulsed electric field (PEF) for inactivation of the microbial content in the food is gaining popularity. PEF uses a very high electric field for a short time for the inactivation of microorganisms, for which we require a high voltage pulsed power source. Pulsed power sources used for PEF treatments are usually in the range of 5kV to 50kV. Different pulse shapes are used, such as exponentially decaying and square wave pulses. Exponentially decaying pulses are generated by high power switches with only turn-on capacity and, therefore, discharge the total energy stored in the capacitor bank. These pulses have a sudden onset and, therefore, a high rate of rising but have a very slow decay, which yields extra heat, which is ineffective in microbial inactivation. Square pulses can be produced by an incomplete discharge of a capacitor with the help of a switch having both on/off control or by using a pulse forming network. In this work, a pulsed power-based system is designed with the help of high voltage capacitors and solid-state switches (IGBT) for the inactivation of pathogenic micro-organism in liquid food such as fruit juices. The high voltage generator is based on the Marx generator topology, which can produce variable amplitude, frequency, and pulse width according to the requirements. Liquid food is treated in a chamber where pulsed electric field is produced between stainless steel electrodes using the pulsed output voltage of the supply. Preliminary bacterial inactivation tests were performed by subjecting orange juice inoculated with Escherichia Coli bacteria. With the help of the developed pulsed power source and the chamber, the inoculated orange has been PEF treated. The voltage was varied to get a peak electric field up to 15kV/cm. For a total treatment time of 200µs, a 30% reduction in the bacterial count has been observed. The detailed results and analysis will be presented in the final paper.

Keywords: Escherichia coli bacteria, high voltage generator, microbial inactivation, pulsed electric field, pulsed forming line, solid-state switch

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646 Eggshell Waste Bioprocessing for Sustainable Acid Phosphatase Production and Minimizing Environmental Hazards

Authors: Soad Abubakr Abdelgalil, Gaber Attia Abo-Zaid, Mohamed Mohamed Yousri Kaddah

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Background: The Environmental Protection Agency has listed eggshell waste as the 15th most significant food industry pollution hazard. The utilization of eggshell waste as a source of renewable energy has been a hot topic in recent years. Therefore, finding a sustainable solution for the recycling and valorization of eggshell waste by investigating its potential to produce acid phosphatase (ACP) and organic acids by the newly-discovered B. sonorensis was the target of the current investigation. Results: The most potent ACP-producing B. sonorensis strain ACP2 was identified as a local bacterial strain obtained from the effluent of paper and pulp industries on basis of molecular and morphological characterization. The use of consecutive statistical experimental approaches of Plackett-Burman Design (PBD), and Orthogonal Central Composite Design (OCCD), followed by pH-uncontrolled cultivation conditions in a 7 L bench-top bioreactor, revealed an innovative medium formulation that substantially improved ACP production, reaching 216 U L⁻¹ with ACP yield coefficient Yp/x of 18.2 and a specific growth rate (µ) of 0.1 h⁻¹. The metals Ag+, Sn+, and Cr+ were the most efficiently released from eggshells during the solubilization process by B. sonorensis. The uncontrolled pH culture condition is the most suited and favored setting for improving the ACP and organic acids production simultaneously. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of produced organic acids were carried out using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Lactic acid, citric acid, and hydroxybenzoic acid isomer were the most common organic acids produced throughout the cultivation process. The findings of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scan calorimeter (DSC), scanning electron microscope (SEM), energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis emphasize the significant influence of organic acids and ACP activity on the solubilization of eggshells particles. Conclusions: This study emphasized robust microbial engineering approaches for the large-scale production of a newly discovered acid phosphatase accompanied by organic acids production from B. sonorensis. The biovalorization of the eggshell waste and the production of cost-effective ACP and organic acids were integrated into the current study, and this was done through the implementation of a unique and innovative medium formulation design for eggshell waste management, as well as scaling up ACP production on a bench-top scale.

Keywords: chicken eggshells waste, bioremediation, statistical experimental design, batch fermentation

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645 Strategies for Drought Adpatation and Mitigation via Wastewater Management

Authors: Simrat Kaur, Fatema Diwan, Brad Reddersen

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The unsustainable and injudicious use of natural renewable resources beyond the self-replenishment limits of our planet has proved catastrophic. Most of the Earth’s resources, including land, water, minerals, and biodiversity, have been overexploited. Owing to this, there is a steep rise in the global events of natural calamities of contrasting nature, such as torrential rains, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, and megadroughts. These are all interconnected through common elements, namely oceanic currents and land’s the green cover. The deforestation fueled by the ‘economic elites’ or the global players have already cleared massive forests and ecological biomes in every region of the globe, including the Amazon. These were the natural carbon sinks prevailing and performing CO2 sequestration for millions of years. The forest biomes have been turned into mono cultivation farms to produce feedstock crops such as soybean, maize, and sugarcane; which are one of the biggest green house gas emitters. Such unsustainable agriculture practices only provide feedstock for livestock and food processing industries with huge carbon and water footprints. These are two main factors that have ‘cause and effect’ relationships in the context of climate change. In contrast to organic and sustainable farming, the mono-cultivation practices to produce food, fuel, and feedstock using chemicals devoid of the soil of its fertility, abstract surface, and ground waters beyond the limits of replenishment, emit green house gases, and destroy biodiversity. There are numerous cases across the planet where due to overuse; the levels of surface water reservoir such as the Lake Mead in Southwestern USA and ground water such as in Punjab, India, have deeply shrunk. Unlike the rain fed food production system on which the poor communities of the world relies; the blue water (surface and ground water) dependent mono-cropping for industrial and processed food create water deficit which put the burden on the domestic users. Excessive abstraction of both surface and ground waters for high water demanding feedstock (soybean, maize, sugarcane), cereal crops (wheat, rice), and cash crops (cotton) have a dual and synergistic impact on the global green house gas emissions and prevalence of megadroughts. Both these factors have elevated global temperatures, which caused cascading events such as soil water deficits, flash fires, and unprecedented burning of the woods, creating megafires in multiple continents, namely USA, South America, Europe, and Australia. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce the green and blue water footprints of agriculture and industrial sectors through recycling of black and gray waters. This paper explores various opportunities for successful implementation of wastewater management for drought preparedness in high risk communities.

Keywords: wastewater, drought, biodiversity, water footprint, nutrient recovery, algae

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644 Utilization of Developed Single Sequence Repeats Markers for Dalmatian Pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium) in Preliminary Genetic Diversity Study on Natural Populations

Authors: F. Varga, Z. Liber, J. Jakše, A. Turudić, Z. Šatović, I. Radosavljević, N. Jeran, M. Grdiša

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Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium (Trevir.) Sch. Bip.; Asteraceae), a source of the commercially dominant plant insecticide pyrethrin, is a species endemic to the eastern Adriatic. Genetic diversity of T. cinerariifolium was previously studied using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. However, microsatellite markers (single sequence repeats - SSRs) are more informative because they are codominant, highly polymorphic, locus-specific, and more reproducible, and thus are most often used to assess the genetic diversity of plant species. Dalmatian pyrethrum is an outcrossing diploid (2n = 18) whose large genome size and high repeatability have prevented the success of the traditional approach to SSR markers development. The advent of next-generation sequencing combined with the specifically developed method recently enabled the development of, to the author's best knowledge, the first set of SSRs for genomic characterization of Dalmatian pyrethrum, which is essential from the perspective of plant genetic resources conservation. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed SSR markers in genetic differentiation of Dalmatian pyrethrum populations, a preliminary genetic diversity study was conducted on 30 individuals from three geographically distinct natural populations in Croatia (northern Adriatic island of Mali Lošinj, southern Adriatic island of Čiovo, and Mount Biokovo) based on 12 SSR loci. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) by randomization test with 10,000 permutations was performed in Arlequin 3.5. The average number of alleles per locus, observed and expected heterozygosity, probability of deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and inbreeding coefficient was calculated using GENEPOP 4.4. Genetic distance based on the proportion of common alleles (DPSA) was calculated using MICROSAT. Cluster analysis using the neighbor-joining method with 1,000 bootstraps was performed with PHYLIP to generate a dendrogram. The results of the AMOVA analysis showed that the total SSR diversity was 23% within and 77% between the three populations. A slight deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was observed in the Mali Lošinj population. Allele richness ranged from 2.92 to 3.92, with the highest number of private alleles observed in the Mali Lošinj population (17). The average observed DPSA between 30 individuals was 0.557. The highest DPSA (0.875) was observed between several pairs of Dalmatian pyrethrum individuals from the Mali Lošinj and Mt. Biokovo populations, and the lowest between two individuals from the Čiovo population. Neighbor-joining trees, based on DPSA, grouped individuals into clusters according to their population affiliation. The separation of Mt. Biokovo clade was supported (bootstrap value 58%), which is consistent with the previous study on AFLP markers, where isolated populations from Mt. Biokovo differed from the rest of the populations. The developed SSR markers are an effective tool for assessing the genetic diversity and structure of natural Dalmatian pyrethrum populations. These preliminary results are encouraging for a future comprehensive study with a larger sample size across the species' range. Combined with the biochemical data, these highly informative markers could help identify potential genotypes of interest for future development of breeding lines and cultivars that are both resistant to environmental stress and high in pyrethrins. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project ‘Genetic background of Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir./ Sch. Bip.) insecticidal potential’- (PyrDiv) (IP-06-2016-9034) and by project KK.01.1.1.01.0005, Biodiversity and Molecular Plant Breeding, at the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity and Molecular Plant Breeding (CoE CroP-BioDiv), Zagreb, Croatia.

Keywords: Asteraceae, genetic diversity, genomic SSRs, NGS, pyrethrum, Tanacetum cinerariifolium

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643 A 20 Year Comparison of Australian Childhood Bicycle Injuries – Have We Made a Difference?

Authors: Bronwyn Griffin, Caroline Acton, Tona Gillen, Roy Kimble

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Background: Bicycle riding is a common recreational activity enjoyed by many children throughout Australia that has been associated with the usual caveat of benefits related to exercise and recreation. Given Australia was the first country in the world to introduce cyclist helmet laws in 1991, very few publications have reviewed paediatric cycling injuries (fatal or non-fatal) since. Objectives: To identify trends in children (0-16 years) who required admission for greater than 24 hours following a bicycle-related injury (fatal and non-fatal) in Queensland. Further, to discuss changes that have occurred in paediatric cycling injury trends in Queensland since a prominent local study/publication in 1995. This paper aims to establish evidence to inform interventions promoting safer riding to parents, children and communities. Methods: Data on paediatric (0-16 years) cycling injuries in Queensland resulting in hospital admission more than 24 hours across three tertiary paediatric hospitals in Brisbane between November 2008-June 2015 was compiled by the Paediatric Trauma Data Registry for non-fatal injuries. The Child Death Review Team at the Queensland Families and Childhood Commission provided data on fatalities in children <17years from (June 2004 –June 2015). Comparing trends to a local study published in 1995 Results: Between 2008-2015 there were 197 patients admitted for greater than 24 hours following a cycling injury. The median age was 11 years, with males more frequently involved (n=139, 87%) compared to females. Mean length of stay was three days, with 47 (28%) children admitted to PICU, location of injury was most often the street (n=63, 37%). Between 2004 –2015 there were 15 fatalities (Incidence rate 0.25/100,000); all were male, 14/15 occurred on the street, with eight stated to have not been wearing a helmet, 11/15 children came from the least advantaged socio-economic group (SEIFA) compared to a local publication in 1995, finding of 94 fatalities between (1981-1992). Conclusions: There has been a notable decrease in incidence of fatalities between the two time periods with incidence rates dropping from 1.75-0.25/100,000. More statistics need to be run to ascertain if this is a true reduction or perhaps a decrease in children riding bicycles. Injuries that occur on the street that come in contact with a car remain of serious concern. The purpose of this paper is not to discourage bicycle riding among child and adolescent populations, rather, inform parents and the wider community about the risks associated with cycling in order to reduce injuries associated with this sport, whilst promoting safe cycling.

Keywords: paediatric, cycling, trauma, prevention, emergency

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
642 Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Air Distribution System of Larder Type Refrigerator

Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

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Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, experimental, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
641 A Vision-Based Early Warning System to Prevent Elephant-Train Collisions

Authors: Shanaka Gunasekara, Maleen Jayasuriya, Nalin Harischandra, Lilantha Samaranayake, Gamini Dissanayake

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One serious facet of the worsening Human-Elephant conflict (HEC) in nations such as Sri Lanka involves elephant-train collisions. Endangered Asian elephants are maimed or killed during such accidents, which also often result in orphaned or disabled elephants, contributing to the phenomenon of lone elephants. These lone elephants are found to be more likely to attack villages and showcase aggressive behaviour, which further exacerbates the overall HEC. Furthermore, Railway Services incur significant financial losses and disruptions to services annually due to such accidents. Most elephant-train collisions occur due to a lack of adequate reaction time. This is due to the significant stopping distance requirements of trains, as the full braking force needs to be avoided to minimise the risk of derailment. Thus, poor driver visibility at sharp turns, nighttime operation, and poor weather conditions are often contributing factors to this problem. Initial investigations also indicate that most collisions occur in localised “hotspots” where elephant pathways/corridors intersect with railway tracks that border grazing land and watering holes. Taking these factors into consideration, this work proposes the leveraging of recent developments in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) technology to detect elephants using an RGB/infrared capable camera around known hotspots along the railway track. The CNN was trained using a curated dataset of elephants collected on field visits to elephant sanctuaries and wildlife parks in Sri Lanka. With this vision-based detection system at its core, a prototype unit of an early warning system was designed and tested. This weatherised and waterproofed unit consists of a Reolink security camera which provides a wide field of view and range, an Nvidia Jetson Xavier computing unit, a rechargeable battery, and a solar panel for self-sufficient functioning. The prototype unit was designed to be a low-cost, low-power and small footprint device that can be mounted on infrastructures such as poles or trees. If an elephant is detected, an early warning message is communicated to the train driver using the GSM network. A mobile app for this purpose was also designed to ensure that the warning is clearly communicated. A centralized control station manages and communicates all information through the train station network to ensure coordination among important stakeholders. Initial results indicate that detection accuracy is sufficient under varying lighting situations, provided comprehensive training datasets that represent a wide range of challenging conditions are available. The overall hardware prototype was shown to be robust and reliable. We envision a network of such units may help contribute to reducing the problem of elephant-train collisions and has the potential to act as an important surveillance mechanism in dealing with the broader issue of human-elephant conflicts.

Keywords: computer vision, deep learning, human-elephant conflict, wildlife early warning technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 212
640 Challenges Faced by the Parents of Mentally Challenged Children in India

Authors: Chamaraja Parulli

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Family is an important social institution devoted to the growth of a child, and parents are the important agents of socialization. Mentally challenged children are those who are affected by intellectual disability, which is manifested by limitation in intellectual functioning and adoptive behavior. Intellectual disability affects about 3-4 percentage of the general population. Intellectual disability is caused by genetic condition, problems during pregnancy, problems during childbirth, or illness. Mental retardation is the world’s most complex and challenging issue. The stigmatization of disability results in social and economic marginalization. Parents of the mentally challenged children will have a very high level of parenting stress, which is significantly more than the stress perceived by the parents of the children without disability. The prevalence of severe mental disorder called Schizophrenia is among 1.1 percent of the total population in India. On the other hand, 11 to 12 percent is the overall lifetime occurrence rate of mental disorders. While the government has a separate program for mental health, the segment is marred by lack of adequate doctors and infrastructure. Mentally retarded children have certain limitations in mental functioning and skills, which makes them slow learners in speaking, walking, and taking care of their personal needs such as dressing and eating. Accepting a child with mental handicap becomes difficult for parents and to the whole family, as they have to face many problems, including those of management, finance, deprivation of rest, and leisure. Also, the problems faced by the parents can be seen in different areas like – educational, psychological, social, emotional, financial and family related issues. The study brought out various difficulties and problems faced by the parents as well as family members. The findings revealed that the mental retardation is not only a medico-psychological problem but also a socio-cultural problem. The study results, however, indicate that the quality of life of the family having children with mental retardation can be improved to a greater extent by building up a child-friendly ambience at home. The main aim of the present study is to assess the problems faced by the parents of mentally challenged children, with the help of personal interview data collected from the parents of mentally challenged children, residing in Shimoga District of Karnataka State, India. These individuals were selected using stratified random sampling method. Organizing effective intervention programs for parents, family, society, and educational institutions towards reduction of family stress, augmenting the family’s strengths, increasing child’s competence and enhancing the positive attitudes and values of the society will go a long way for the peaceful existence of the mentally challenged children.

Keywords: mentally challenged children, intellectual disability, special children, social infrastructure, differently abled, psychological stress, marginalization

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
639 Assessment of Ecosystem Readiness for Adoption of Circularity: A Multi-Case Study Analysis of Textile Supply Chain in Pakistan

Authors: Azhar Naila, Steuer Benjamin

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Over-exploitation of resources and the burden on natural systems have provoked worldwide concerns about the potential resource as well as supply risks in the future. It has been estimated that the consumption of materials and resources will double by 2060, substantially mounting the amount of waste and emissions produced by individuals, organizations, and businesses, which necessitates sustainable technological innovations to address the problem. Therefore, there is a need to design products and services purposefully for material resource efficiency. This directs us toward the conceptualization and implementation of the ‘Circular Economy (CE),’ which has gained considerable attention among policymakers, researchers, and businesses in the past decade. A large amount of literature focuses on the concept of CE. However, contextual empirical research on the need to embrace CE in an emerging economy like Pakistan is still scarce, where the traditional economic model of take-make-dispose is quite common. Textile exports account for approximately 61% of Pakistan's total exports, and the industry provides employment for about 40% of the country's total industrial workforce. The industry provides job opportunities to above 10 million farmers, with cotton as the main crop of Pakistan. Consumers, companies, as well as the government have explored very limited CE potential in the country. This gap has motivated us to carry out the present study. The study is based on a mixed method approach, for which key informant interviews have been conducted to get insight into the present situation of the ecosystem readiness for the adoption of CE in 20 textile manufacturing industries. The subject study has been conducted on the following areas i) the level of understanding of the CE concept among key stakeholders in the textile manufacturing industry ii) Companies are pushing boundaries to invest in circularity-based initiatives, exploring the depths of risk-taking iii) the current national policy framework support the adoption of CE. Qualitative assessment has been undertaken using MAXQDA to analyze the data received after the key informant interviews. The data has been transcribed and coded for further analysis. The results show that most of the key stakeholders have a clear understanding of the concept, whereas few consider it to be only relevant to the end-of-life treatment of waste generated from the industry. Non-governmental organizations have been observed to be key players in creating awareness among the manufacturing industries. Maximum companies have shown their consent to invest in initiatives related to the adoption of CE. Whereas a few consider themselves far behind the race due to a lack of financial resources and support from responsible institutions. Mostly, the industries have an ambitious vision for integrating CE into the company’s policy but seem not to be ready to take any significant steps to nurture a culture for experimentation. However, the government is not playing any vital role in the transition towards CE; rather, they have been busy with the state’s uncertain political situation. Presently, Pakistan does not have any policy framework that supports the transition towards CE. Acknowledging the present landscape a well-informed CE transition is immediately required.

Keywords: circular economy, textile supply chain, textile manufacturing industries, resource efficiency, ecosystem readiness, multi-case study analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
638 The Impact of HKUST-1 Metal-Organic Framework Pretreatment on Dynamic Acetaldehyde Adsorption

Authors: M. François, L. Sigot, C. Vallières

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Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are a real health issue, particularly in domestic indoor environments. Among these VOCs, acetaldehyde is frequently monitored in dwellings ‘air, especially due to smoking and spontaneous emissions from the new wall and soil coverings. It is responsible for respiratory complaints and is classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans. Adsorption processes are commonly used to remove VOCs from the air. Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) are a promising type of material for high adsorption performance. These hybrid porous materials composed of metal inorganic clusters and organic ligands are interesting thanks to their high porosity and surface area. The HKUST-1 (also referred to as MOF-199) is a copper-based MOF with the formula [Cu₃(BTC)₂(H₂O)₃]n (BTC = benzene-1,3,5-tricarboxylate) and exhibits unsaturated metal sites that can be attractive sites for adsorption. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of HKUST-1 pretreatment on acetaldehyde adsorption. Thus, dynamic adsorption experiments were conducted in 1 cm diameter glass column packed with 2 cm MOF bed height. MOF were sieved to 630 µm - 1 mm. The feed gas (Co = 460 ppmv ± 5 ppmv) was obtained by diluting a 1000 ppmv acetaldehyde gas cylinder in air. The gas flow rate was set to 0.7 L/min (to guarantee a suitable linear velocity). Acetaldehyde concentration was monitored online by gas chromatography coupled with a flame ionization detector (GC-FID). Breakthrough curves must allow to understand the interactions between the MOF and the pollutant as well as the impact of the HKUST-1 humidity in the adsorption process. Consequently, different MOF water content conditions were tested, from a dry material with 7 % water content (dark blue color) to water saturated state with approximately 35 % water content (turquoise color). The rough material – without any pretreatment – containing 30 % water serves as a reference. First, conclusions can be drawn from the comparison of the evolution of the ratio of the column outlet concentration (C) on the inlet concentration (Co) as a function of time for different HKUST-1 pretreatments. The shape of the breakthrough curves is significantly different. The saturation of the rough material is slower (20 h to reach saturation) than that of the dried material (2 h). However, the breakthrough time defined for C/Co = 10 % appears earlier in the case of the rough material (0.75 h) compared to the dried HKUST-1 (1.4 h). Another notable difference is the shape of the curve before the breakthrough at 10 %. An abrupt increase of the outlet concentration is observed for the material with the lower humidity in comparison to a smooth increase for the rough material. Thus, the water content plays a significant role on the breakthrough kinetics. This study aims to understand what can explain the shape of the breakthrough curves associated to the pretreatments of HKUST-1 and which mechanisms take place in the adsorption process between the MOF, the pollutant, and the water.

Keywords: acetaldehyde, dynamic adsorption, HKUST-1, pretreatment influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
637 The Effects of Grape Waste Bioactive Compounds on the Immune Response and Oxidative Stress in Pig Kidney

Authors: Mihai Palade, Gina Cecilia Pistol, Mariana Stancu, Veronica Chedea, Ionelia Taranu

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Nutrition is an important determinant of general health status, with especially focus on prevention and/or attenuation of the inflammatory-associated pathologies. People with chronic kidney disease can experience chronic inflammation that can lead to cardiovascular disease and even an increased rate of death. There are important links between chronic kidney diseases, inflammation and nutritional strategies that may prevent or protect against undesirable inflammation and oxidative stress. The grape by-products either seeds or pomace are rich in polyphenols which may be beneficial in prevention of inflammatory, antioxidant and antimicrobial processes. As a model for studying the impact of grape seeds on renal inflammation and oxidative stress, we used in this study weaned piglets. After a feeding trial of 30 days with a control diet and an experimental diet containing 5% grape seed (GS), kidney samples were collected. In renal tissues were determined the expression and activity of important markers of immune respose and oxidative stress: pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta, IL-6, IL-8, IFN-gamma), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-4, IL-10), anti-oxidant enzymes (catalase CAT, superoxide dismutase SOD, glutathione peroxidise GPx) and important mediators belonging to nuclear receptors (NF-kB1, Nrf-2 and PPAR-gamma). Gene expression was evaluated by qPCR, whereas protein concentration was determined using proteomic techniques (ELISA). The activity of anti-oxidant enzymes was determined using specific kits. Our results showed that GS enriched in polyphenols does not have effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6 and IL-1 beta gene expression and protein concentration in kidney. By contrast, the gene expression and protein level of IL-8 and IFN-gamma were decreased in GS kidney. Anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-4 and IL-10 gene levels were increased in kidneys collected from GS piglets in comparison with controls, with no modification of protein levels between the two groups. The activities of anti-oxidant enzymes CAT and GPx were increased in kidney by GS, whereas SOD activity was unmodified in comparison with control samples. Also, the GS diet was associated with no modulation of mRNAs for nuclear receptors NF-kB1, Nrf-2 and PPAR-gamma gene expressions in kidneys. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that GS enriched in bioactive compounds such polyphenols could modulate inflammation and oxidative stress markers in kidney tissues. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the mechanism of action of GS compounds in case kidney inflammation associated with oxidative stress, and signalling molecules involved in these mechanisms.

Keywords: animal model, kidney inflammation, oxidative stress, grape seed

Procedia PDF Downloads 283
636 The GRIT Study: Getting Global Rare Disease Insights Through Technology Study

Authors: Aneal Khan, Elleine Allapitan, Desmond Koo, Katherine-Ann Piedalue, Shaneel Pathak, Utkarsh Subnis

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Background: Disease management of metabolic, genetic disorders is long-term and can be cumbersome to patients and caregivers. Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) have been a useful tool in capturing patient perspectives to help enhance treatment compliance and engagement with health care providers, reduce utilization of emergency services, and increase satisfaction with their treatment choices. Currently, however, PROMs are collected during infrequent and decontextualized clinic visits, which makes translation of patient experiences challenging over time. The GRIT study aims to evaluate a digital health journal application called Zamplo that provides a personalized health diary to record self-reported health outcomes accurately and efficiently in patients with metabolic, genetic disorders. Methods: This is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) (1:1) that assesses the efficacy of Zamplo to increase patient activation (primary outcome), improve healthcare satisfaction and confidence to manage medications (secondary outcomes), and reduce costs to the healthcare system (exploratory). Using standardized online surveys, assessments will be collected at baseline, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Outcomes will be compared between patients who were given access to the application versus those with no access. Results: Seventy-seven patients were recruited as of November 30, 2021. Recruitment for the study commenced in November 2020 with a target of n=150 patients. The accrual rate was 50% from those eligible and invited for the study, with the majority of patients having Fabry disease (n=48) and the remaining having Pompe disease and mitochondrial disease. Real-time clinical responses, such as pain, are being measured and correlated to disease-modifying therapies, supportive treatments like pain medications, and lifestyle interventions. Engagement with the application, along with compliance metrics of surveys and journal entries, are being analyzed. An interim analysis of the engagement data along with preliminary findings from this pilot RCT, and qualitative patient feedback will be presented. Conclusions: The digital self-care journal provides a unique approach to disease management, allowing patients direct access to their progress and actively participating in their care. Findings from the study can help serve the virtual care needs of patients with metabolic, genetic disorders in North America and the world over.

Keywords: eHealth, mobile health, rare disease, patient outcomes, quality of life (QoL), pain, Fabry disease, Pompe disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
635 Modelling Pest Immigration into Rape Seed Crops under Past and Future Climate Conditions

Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
634 Influence of Biochar Application on Growth, Dry Matter Yield and Nutrition of Corn (Zea mays L.) Grown on Sandy Loam Soils of Gujarat, India

Authors: Pravinchandra Patel

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Sustainable agriculture in sandy loam soil generally faces large constraints due to low water holding and nutrient retention capacity, and accelerated mineralization of soil organic matter. There is need to increase soil organic carbon in the soil for higher crop productivity and soil sustainability. Recently biochar is considered as sixth element and work as a catalyst for increasing crop yield, soil fertility, soil sustainability and mitigation of climate change. Biochar was generated at the Sansoli Farm of Anand Agricultural University, Gujarat, India by pyrolysis at temperatures (250-400°C) in absence of oxygen using slow chemical process (using two kilns) from corn stover (Zea mays, L), cluster bean stover (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) and Prosopis julifera wood. There were 16 treatments; 4 organic sources (3 biochar; corn stover biochar (MS), cluster bean stover (CB) & Prosopis julifera wood (PJ) and one farmyard manure-FYM) with two rate of application (5 & 10 metric tons/ha), so there were eight treatments of organic sources. Eight organic sources was applied with the recommended dose of fertilizers (RDF) (80-40-0 kg/ha N-P-K) while remaining eight organic sources were kept without RDF. Application of corn stover biochar @ 10 metric tons/ha along with RDF (RDF+MS) increased dry matter (DM) yield, crude protein (CP) yield, chlorophyll content and plant height (at 30 and 60 days after sowing) than CB and PJ biochar and FYM. Nutrient uptake of P, K, Ca, Mg, S and Cu were significantly increased with the application of RDF + corn stover @ 10 metric tons/ha while uptake of N and Mn were significantly increased in RDF + corn stover @ 5 metric tons/ha. It was found that soil application of corn stover biochar @ 10 metric tons/ha along with the recommended dose of chemical fertilizers (RDF+MS ) exhibited the highest impact in obtaining significantly higher dry matter and crude protein yields and larger removal of nutrients from the soil and it also beneficial for built up nutrients in soil. It also showed significantly higher organic carbon content and cation exchange capacity in sandy loam soil. The lower dose of corn stover biochar @ 5 metric tons/ha (RDF+ MS) was also remained the second highest for increasing dry matter and crude protein yields of forage corn crop which ultimately resulted in larger removals of nutrients from the soil. This study highlights the importance of mixing of biochar along with recommended dose of fertilizers on its synergistic effect on sandy loam soil nutrient retention, organic carbon content and water holding capacity hence, the amendment value of biochar in sandy loam soil.

Keywords: biochar, corn yield, plant nutrient, fertility status

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
633 The Analysis of Noise Harmfulness in Public Utility Facilities

Authors: Monika Sobolewska, Aleksandra Majchrzak, Bartlomiej Chojnacki, Katarzyna Baruch, Adam Pilch

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The main purpose of the study is to perform the measurement and analysis of noise harmfulness in public utility facilities. The World Health Organization reports that the number of people suffering from hearing impairment is constantly increasing. The most alarming is the number of young people occurring in the statistics. The majority of scientific research in the field of hearing protection and noise prevention concern industrial and road traffic noise as the source of health problems. As the result, corresponding standards and regulations defining noise level limits are enforced. However, there is another field uncovered by profound research – leisure time. Public utility facilities such as clubs, shopping malls, sport facilities or concert halls – they all generate high-level noise, being out of proper juridical control. Among European Union Member States, the highest legislative act concerning noise prevention is the Environmental Noise Directive 2002/49/EC. However, it omits the problem discussed above and even for traffic, railway and aircraft noise it does not set limits or target values, leaving these issues to the discretion of the Member State authorities. Without explicit and uniform regulations, noise level control at places designed for relaxation and entertainment is often in the responsibility of people having little knowledge of hearing protection, unaware of the risk the noise pollution poses. Exposure to high sound levels in clubs, cinemas, at concerts and sports events may result in a progressive hearing loss, especially among young people, being the main target group of such facilities and events. The first step to change this situation and to raise the general awareness is to perform reliable measurements the results of which will emphasize the significance of the problem. This project presents the results of more than hundred measurements, performed in most types of public utility facilities in Poland. As the most suitable measuring instrument for such a research, personal noise dosimeters were used to collect the data. Each measurement is presented in the form of numerical results including equivalent and peak sound pressure levels and a detailed description considering the type of the sound source, size and furnishing of the room and the subjective sound level evaluation. In the absence of a straight reference point for the interpretation of the data, the limits specified in EU Directive 2003/10/EC were used for comparison. They set the maximum sound level values for workers in relation to their working time length. The analysis of the examined problem leads to the conclusion that during leisure time, people are exposed to noise levels significantly exceeding safe values. As the hearing problems are gradually progressing, most people underplay the problem, ignoring the first symptoms. Therefore, an effort has to be made to specify the noise regulations for public utility facilities. Without any action, in the foreseeable future the majority of Europeans will be dealing with serious hearing damage, which will have a negative impact on the whole societies.

Keywords: hearing protection, noise level limits, noise prevention, noise regulations, public utility facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
632 Microsimulation of Potential Crashes as a Road Safety Indicator

Authors: Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Vincenzo Pasquale Giofre, Alessandro Vitale

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Traffic microsimulation has been used extensively to evaluate consequences of different traffic planning and control policies in terms of travel time delays, queues, pollutant emissions, and every other common measured performance while at the same time traffic safety has not been considered in common traffic microsimulation packages as a measure of performance for different traffic scenarios. Vehicle conflict techniques that were introduced at intersections in the early traffic researches carried out at the General Motor laboratory in the USA and in the Swedish traffic conflict manual have been applied to vehicles trajectories simulated in microscopic traffic simulators. The concept is that microsimulation can be used as a base for calculating the number of conflicts that will define the safety level of a traffic scenario. This allows engineers to identify unsafe road traffic maneuvers and helps in finding the right countermeasures that can improve safety. Unfortunately, most commonly used indicators do not consider conflicts between single vehicles and roadside obstacles and barriers. A great number of vehicle crashes take place with roadside objects or obstacles. Only some recent proposed indicators have been trying to address this issue. This paper introduces a new procedure based on the simulation of potential crash events for the evaluation of safety levels in microsimulation traffic scenarios, which takes into account also potential crashes with roadside objects and barriers. The procedure can be used to define new conflict indicators. The proposed simulation procedure generates with the random perturbation of vehicle trajectories a set of potential crashes which can be evaluated accurately in terms of DeltaV, the energy of the impact, and/or expected number of injuries or casualties. The procedure can also be applied to real trajectories giving birth to new surrogate safety performance indicators, which can be considered as “simulation-based”. The methodology and a specific safety performance indicator are described and applied to a simulated test traffic scenario. Results indicate that the procedure is able to evaluate safety levels both at the intersection level and in the presence of roadside obstacles. The procedure produces results that are expressed in the same unity of measure for both vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to roadside object conflicts. The total energy for a square meter of all generated crash can be used and is shown on the map, for the test network, after the application of a threshold to evidence the most dangerous points. Without any detailed calibration of the microsimulation model and without any calibration of the parameters of the procedure (standard values have been used), it is possible to identify dangerous points. A preliminary sensitivity analysis has shown that results are not dependent on the different energy thresholds and different parameters of the procedure. This paper introduces a specific new procedure and the implementation in the form of a software package that is able to assess road safety, also considering potential conflicts with roadside objects. Some of the principles that are at the base of this specific model are discussed. The procedure can be applied on common microsimulation packages once vehicle trajectories and the positions of roadside barriers and obstacles are known. The procedure has many calibration parameters and research efforts will have to be devoted to make confrontations with real crash data in order to obtain the best parameters that have the potential of giving an accurate evaluation of the risk of any traffic scenario.

Keywords: road safety, traffic, traffic safety, traffic simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
631 Effect of Minimalist Footwear on Running Economy Following Exercise-Induced Fatigue

Authors: Jason Blair, Adeboye Adebayo, Mohamed Saad, Jeannette M. Byrne, Fabien A. Basset

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Running economy is a key physiological parameter of an individual’s running efficacy and a valid tool for predicting performance outcomes. Of the many factors known to influence running economy (RE), footwear certainly plays a role owing to its characteristics that vary substantially from model to model. Although minimalist footwear is believed to enhance RE and thereby endurance performance, conclusive research reports are scarce. Indeed, debates remain as to which footwear characteristics most alter RE. The purposes of this study were, therefore, two-fold: (a) to determine whether wearing minimalist shoes results in better RE compared to shod and to identify relationships with kinematic and muscle activation patterns; (b) to determine whether changes in RE with minimalist shoes are still evident following a fatiguing bout of exercise. Well-trained male distance runners (n=10; 29.0 ± 7.5 yrs; 71.0 ± 4.8 kg; 176.3 ± 6.5 cm) partook first in a maximal O₂ uptake determination test (VO₂ₘₐₓ = 61.6 ± 7.3 ml min⁻¹ kg⁻¹) 7 days prior to the experimental sessions. Second, in a fully randomized fashion, an RE test consisting of three 8-min treadmill runs in shod and minimalist footwear were performed prior to and following exercise induced fatigue (EIF). The minimalist and shod conditions were tested with a minimum of 7-day wash-out period between conditions. The RE bouts, interspaced by 2-min rest periods, were run at 2.79, 3.33, and 3.89 m s⁻¹ with a 1% grade. EIF consisted of 7 times 1000 m at 94-97% VO₂ₘₐₓ interspaced with 3-min recovery. Cardiorespiratory, electromyography (EMG), kinematics, rate of perceived exertion (RPE) and blood lactate were measured throughout the experimental sessions. A significant main speed effect on RE (p=0.001) and stride frequency (SF) (p=0.001) was observed. The pairwise comparisons showed that running at 2.79 m s⁻¹ was less economic compared to 3.33, and 3.89 m s⁻¹ (3.56 ± 0.38, 3.41 ± 0.45, 3.40 ± 0.45 ml O₂ kg⁻¹ km⁻¹; respectively) and that SF increased as a function of speed (79 ± 5, 82 ± 5, 84 ± 5 strides min⁻¹). Further, EMG analyses revealed that root mean square EMG significantly increased as a function of speed for all muscles (Biceps femoris, Gluteus maximus, Gastrocnemius, Tibialis anterior, Vastus lateralis). During EIF, the statistical analysis revealed a significant main effect of time on lactate production (from 2.7 ± 5.7 to 11.2 ± 6.2 mmol L⁻¹), RPE scores (from 7.6 ± 4.0 to 18.4 ± 2.7) and peak HR (from 171 ± 30 to 181 ± 20 bpm), expect for the recovery period. Surprisingly, a significant main footwear effect was observed on running speed during intervals (p=0.041). Participants ran faster with minimalist shoes compared to shod (3:24 ± 0:44 min [95%CI: 3:14-3:34] vs. 3:30 ± 0:47 min [95%CI: 3:19-3:41]). Although EIF altered lactate production and RPE scores, no other effect was noticeable on RE, EMG, and SF pre- and post-EIF, except for the expected speed effect. The significant footwear effect on running speed during EIF was unforeseen but could be due to shoe mass and/or heel-toe-drop differences. We also cannot discard the effect of speed on foot-strike pattern and therefore, running performance.

Keywords: exercise-induced fatigue, interval training, minimalist footwear, running economy

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630 Creative Radio Advertising in Turkey

Authors: Mehmet Sinan Erguven

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A number of authorities argue that radio is an outdated medium for advertising and does not have the same impact on consumers as it did in the past. This grim outlook on the future of radio has its basis in the audio-visual world that consumers now live in and the popularity of Internet-based marketing tools among advertising professionals. Nonetheless, consumers still appear to overwhelmingly prefer radio as an entertainment tool. Today, in Canada, 90% of all adults (18+) tune into the radio on a weekly basis, and they listen for 17 hours. Teens are the most challenging group for radio to capture as an audience, but still, almost 75% tune in weekly. One online radio station reaches more than 250 million registered listeners worldwide, and revenues from radio advertising in Australia are expected to grow at an annual rate of 3% for the foreseeable future. Radio is also starting to become popular again in Turkey, with a 5% increase in the listening rates compared to 2014. A major matter of concern always affecting radio advertising is creativity. As radio generally serves as a background medium for listeners, the creativity of the radio commercials is important in terms of attracting the attention of the listener and directing their focus on the advertising message. This cannot simply be done by using audio tools like sound effects and jingles. This study aims to identify the creative elements (execution formats appeals and approaches) and creativity factors of radio commercials in Turkey. As part of the study, all of the award winning radio commercials produced throughout the history of the Kristal Elma Advertising Festival were analyzed using the content analysis technique. Two judges (an advertising agency copywriter and an academic) coded the commercials. The reliability was measured according to the proportional agreement. The results showed that sound effects, jingles, testimonials, slices of life and announcements were the most common execution formats in creative Turkish radio ads. Humor and excitement were the most commonly used creative appeals while award-winning ads featured various approaches, such as surprise musical performances, audio wallpaper, product voice, and theater of the mind. Some ads, however, were found to not contain any creativity factors. In order to be accepted as creative, an ad must have at least one divergence factor, such as originality, flexibility, unusual/empathic perspective, and provocative questions. These findings, as well as others from the study, hold great value for the history of creative radio advertising in Turkey. Today, the nature of radio and its listeners is changing. As more and more people are tuning into online radio channels, brands will need to focus more on this relatively cheap advertising medium in the very near future. This new development will require that advertising agencies focus their attention on creativity in order to produce radio commercials for their customers that will differentiate them from their competitors.

Keywords: advertising, creativity, radio, Turkey

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629 Developing Primary Care Datasets for a National Asthma Audit

Authors: Rachael Andrews, Viktoria McMillan, Shuaib Nasser, Christopher M. Roberts

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Background and objective: The National Review of Asthma Deaths (NRAD) found that asthma management and care was inadequate in 26% of cases reviewed. Major shortfalls identified were adherence to national guidelines and standards and, particularly, the organisation of care, including supervision and monitoring in primary care, with 70% of cases reviewed having at least one avoidable factor in this area. 5.4 million people in the UK are diagnosed with and actively treated for asthma, and approximately 60,000 are admitted to hospital with acute exacerbations each year. The majority of people with asthma receive management and treatment solely in primary care. This has therefore created concern that many people within the UK are receiving sub-optimal asthma care resulting in unnecessary morbidity and risk of adverse outcome. NRAD concluded that a national asthma audit programme should be established to measure and improve processes, organisation, and outcomes of asthma care. Objective: To develop a primary care dataset enabling extraction of information from GP practices in Wales and providing robust data by which results and lessons could be drawn and drive service development and improvement. Methods: A multidisciplinary group of experts, including general practitioners, primary care organisation representatives, and asthma patients was formed and used as a source of governance and guidance. A review of asthma literature, guidance, and standards took place and was used to identify areas of asthma care which, if improved, would lead to better patient outcomes. Modified Delphi methodology was used to gain consensus from the expert group on which of the areas identified were to be prioritised, and an asthma patient and carer focus group held to seek views and feedback on areas of asthma care that were important to them. Areas of asthma care identified by both groups were mapped to asthma guidelines and standards to inform and develop primary and secondary care datasets covering both adult and pediatric care. Dataset development consisted of expert review and a targeted consultation process in order to seek broad stakeholder views and feedback. Results: Areas of asthma care identified as requiring prioritisation by the National Asthma Audit were: (i) Prescribing, (ii) Asthma diagnosis (iii) Asthma Reviews (iv) Personalised Asthma Action Plans (PAAPs) (v) Primary care follow-up after discharge from hospital (vi) Methodologies and primary care queries were developed to cover each of the areas of poor and variable asthma care identified and the queries designed to extract information directly from electronic patients’ records. Conclusion: This paper describes the methodological approach followed to develop primary care datasets for a National Asthma Audit. It sets out the principles behind the establishment of a National Asthma Audit programme in response to a national asthma mortality review and describes the development activities undertaken. Key process elements included: (i) mapping identified areas of poor and variable asthma care to national guidelines and standards, (ii) early engagement of experts, including clinicians and patients in the process, and (iii) targeted consultation of the queries to provide further insight into measures that were collectable, reproducible and relevant.

Keywords: asthma, primary care, general practice, dataset development

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628 Technology of Electrokinetic Disintegration of Virginia Fanpetals (Sida hermaphrodita) Biomass in a Biogas Production System

Authors: Mirosław Krzemieniewski, Marcin Zieliński, Marcin Dębowski

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Electrokinetic disintegration is one of the high-voltage electric methods. The design of systems is exceptionally simple. Biomass flows through a system of pipes with alongside mounted electrodes that generate an electric field. Discharges in the electric field deform cell walls and lead to their successive perforation, thereby making their contents easily available to bacteria. The spark-over occurs between electrode surface and pipe jacket which is the second pole and closes the circuit. The value of voltage ranges from 10 to 100kV. Electrodes are supplied by normal “power grid” monophase electric current (230V, 50Hz). Next, the electric current changes into direct current of 24V in modules serving for particular electrodes, and this current directly feeds the electrodes. The installation is completely safe because the value of generated current does not exceed 250mA and because conductors are grounded. Therefore, there is no risk of electric shock posed to the personnel, even in the case of failure or incorrect connection. Low values of the electric current mean small energy consumption by the electrode which is extremely low – only 35W per electrode – compared to other methods of disintegration. Pipes with electrodes with diameter of DN150 are made of acid-proof steel and connected from both sides with 90º elbows ended with flanges. The available S and U types of pipes enable very convenient fitting with system construction in the existing installations and rooms or facilitate space management in new applications. The system of pipes for electrokinetic disintegration may be installed horizontally, vertically, askew, on special stands or also directly on the wall of a room. The number of pipes and electrodes is determined by operating conditions as well as the quantity of substrate, type of biomass, content of dry matter, method of disintegration (single or circulatory), mounting site etc. The most effective method involves pre-treatment of substrate that may be pumped through the disintegration system on the way to the fermentation tank or recirculated in a buffered intermediate tank (substrate mixing tank). Biomass structure destruction in the process of electrokinetic disintegration causes shortening of substrate retention time in the tank and acceleration of biogas production. A significant intensification of the fermentation process was observed in the systems operating in the technical scale, with the greatest increase in biogas production reaching 18%. The secondary, but highly significant for the energetic balance, effect is a tangible decrease of energy input by agitators in tanks. It is due to reduced viscosity of the biomass after disintegration, and may result in energy savings reaching even 20-30% of the earlier noted consumption. Other observed phenomena include reduction in the layer of surface scum, reduced sewage capability for foaming and successive decrease in the quantity of bottom sludge banks. Considering the above, the system for electrokinetic disintegration seems a very interesting and valuable solutions meeting the offer of specialist equipment for the processing of plant biomass, including Virginia fanpetals, before the process of methane fermentation.

Keywords: electrokinetic disintegration, biomass, biogas production, fermentation, Virginia fanpetals

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627 On the Bias and Predictability of Asylum Cases

Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats

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An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.

Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining

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626 Homeless Population Modeling and Trend Prediction Through Identifying Key Factors and Machine Learning

Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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625 Entrepreneurial Resilience and Unemployment Curbing among Graduates. The Case of the Catholic University of Cameroon (CATUC) Bamenda, North West Region of Cameroon

Authors: Elizabeth Ankiambom Chiatii

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The effective participation of graduates as leaders in entrepreneurial resilience is a key driver to achieving sustainable job creation and curbing unemployment issues in the urban and rural communities of Cameroon. The unemployment problem is a global challenge in the Labour market, especially for youths graduating from universities. Statistics from the Cameroon National Institute of statistics indicate that the unemployment rate in the country increased to 3.9% in 2021 from 3.8% in 2020. One of the main causes of unemployment challenges and job hooping among university graduates is the high expectation for “white-collar jobs syndrome” as opposed to involvement in ‘blue-collar jobs’. In the recent years, the Catholic University of Cameroon has engaged its resources in problem and project based learning (PBL) approaches in order to enable the students at the end of their course work to be competent and resourceful in impacting their communities and the world at large. It is so encouraging to notice that most of our current and female ex-students have engaged as leaders in fostering entrepreneurial resilience through small and medium size ‘blue-collar’ enterprises like seamstresses or tailors, designers, catering services, poultry owners, traditional regalia designers, phone booth operators, farming (gardening) activities, saloon owners, wedding designers, restaurant operators and many other creative jobs where they also act as petty employers. A good number of them sponsor their university studies through these self-income generating activities. Part one of this paper centres on the introduction and background of study. Part two embodies some literature review in which we concentrate on some related conceptual issues. For example, we have some analogy of employment difficulties faced by the university graduates. Secondly, we will examine the details on entrepreneurial resilience within the context of Bamenda- Cameroon. Thirdly, we expound on the leadership role played by these graduates in building resilience as entrepreneurs stemming from their university training. The primary method of data collection is implemented, where questionnaires are distributed to at least 100 of these graduates engaged in building entrepreneurial resilience. The IVProbit regression analysis is used to determine the effect of these graduate participation as leader on entrepreneurial resilience. The results can contribute to the development of entrepreneurial resilience, and recommendations will be made to CATUC Bamenda, some communities and government leaders to enhance their policies to empower these young graduates in fostering these resourceful activities.

Keywords: graduates entrepreneurial resilience, unemployment challenges, white-collar job syndrome, small and medium size blue-collar enterprises

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