Search results for: probability of return

Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Taha Anjamrooz, Salwa Bheiry

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The continuous increase in the world population, resource shortage and the warning of climate change cause various environmental and social issues to the world. Thus, sustainability concept is much needed nowadays. Organizations are progressively falling under strong worldwide pressure to integrate sustainability practices into their project decision-making development. Construction projects in the industry are amongst the most significant, since it is one of the biggest divisions and of main significance for the national economy and hence has a massive effect on the environment and society. So, it is important to discover approaches to incorporate sustainability into the management of those projects. This study presents a combined sustainability index of projects with sustainable transportation which has been formed as per a comprehensive literature review and survey study. Transportation systems enable the movement of goods and services worldwide, and it is leading to economic growth and creating jobs while creating negative impacts on the environment and society. This research is study to quantify the sustainability indicators, through 1) identifying the importance of sustainable transportation indicators that are based on the sustainable practices used for the construction projects and 2) measure the effectiveness of practices through these indicators on the three sustainable pillars. A total 26 sustainability indicators have been selected and grouped under each related sustainability pillars. A survey was used to collect the opinion about the sustainability indicators by a scoring system. A combined sustainability index considering three sustainable pillars can be helpful in evaluating the transportation sustainable practices of a project and making decisions regarding project selection. In addition to focus on the issue of financial resource allocation in a project selection, the decision-maker could take into account the sustainability as an important key in addition to the project’s return and risk. The purpose of this study is to measure the performance of transportation sustainability which allow companies to assess multiple projects selection. This is useful to decision makers to rank and focus more on future sustainable projects.

Keywords: sustainable transportation, transportation performances, sustainable indicators, sustainable construction practice, sustainability

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Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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Authors: Julian Y. Raheema, Michael R. Hess, Raymond C. Provost, Mark Bilinski

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The world is rapidly moving towards advancing and utilizing artificial intelligence and autonomous robotics. The ground-breaking Boston Dynamics quadruped robot, SPOT, was designed for industrial and commercial tasks requiring limited autonomous navigation. Out of the box, SPOT has route memorization and playback – it can repeat a path that it has been manually piloted through, but it cannot autonomously navigate an area that has not been previously explored. The presented SPOT payload package is built on ROS framework to support autonomous navigation and mapping of an unexplored environment. The package is fully integrated with SPOT to take advantage of motor controls and collision avoidance that comes natively with the robot. The payload runs all computations onboard, takes advantage of visual odometry SLAM and uses an Intel RealSense depth camera and Velodyne LiDAR sensor to generate 2D and 3D maps while in autonomous navigation mode. These maps are fused into the navigation stack to generate a costmap to enable the robot to safely navigate the environment without causing damage to the surroundings or the robot. The operator defines the operational zone and start location and then sends the explore command to have SPOT explore, generate 2D and 3D maps of the environment and return to the start location to await the operator's next command. The benefit of the presented package is that it is much lighter weight and less expensive than previous approaches and, importantly, operates in GPS-denied scenarios, which is ideal for indoor mapping. There are numerous applications that are hazardous to humans for SPOT enhanced with the autonomy payload, including disaster response, nuclear inspection, mine inspection, and so on. Other less extreme uses cases include autonomous 3D and 2D scanning of facilities for inspection, engineering and construction purposes.

Keywords: autonomous, SLAM, quadruped, mapping, exploring, ROS, robotics, navigation

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Authors: G. Nampa, M. Ndlovu

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Mutualistic relationships amongst organisms drive diversity in terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, few mutual associations have been documented in the semi-arid savannas of Africa. The levels and benefits of association between Carissa bispinosa, a medium-sized evergreen thorny shrub, and Trinervitermes trinervoides, an ecosystem engineer termite species, were studied at a semi-arid savanna setting in Nylsvley nature reserve, South Africa. It was hypothesized that there would be a close plant-insect association since termite mounds provide nutrients for plant growth and, in return, the thorny shrubs protect mounds from predation and also provide a temperature buffer. Comparative plant and mounds measurements were taken from associated and isolated occurrences seasonally. Soil particle size, macro- and micronutrients were also evaluated from mounds and the adjacent topsoil matrix General Additive Mixed Models were used to assess internal mound temperatures in relation to prevailing ambient and plant shade temperatures. Findings revealed that plants growing on mounds were significantly taller with a wider canopy and remained greener in the dry season with more fruits. On the other hand, termite mounds under plants were less prone to be damaged by aardvarks and pangolins and had a significantly wider diameter than exposed mounds. All soil macronutrients except for calcium and phosphorous were enriched in mounds relative to the matrix. Only Manganese was enriched in mounds while the other micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Zn and B) were not. Termite mounds under plants maintained a better constant and higher mean internal temperature during winter compared to exposed mounds. To our best knowledge, the study has revealed a previously undocumented survival mechanism that termites use to escape extreme temperatures and predation in semi-arid savannas.

Keywords: mound, mutualism, soil nutrients, termites, thermoregulation

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Authors: Shweta Verma

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Background: Epilepsy is a chronic non-communicable central nervous system (CNS) disorder which affects a large population of all ages. Different classes of drugs are used for the treatment of this neurological disorder, but due to augmented drug resistance and side effects, these drugs become incompetent. Therefore, we design the synthesis of ten new derivatives of Phenytoin. The moiety of Phenytoin was hybridized with different phenols by using three step approach. The synthesized molecules were then investigated for different physicochemical parameters, such as Log P values using diverse software programs and to predict the potential to cross the blood-brain barrier. Objective: The Phenytoin derivatives were designed, synthesized, and characterized to meet the structural necessities indispensable for antiepileptic activity. Method: Firstly, the chloroacetylation of the 5,5-diphenyl hydantoin was carried out, and then various substituted phenols were added to it. The synthesized compounds were characterized and evaluated for antianxiety activity by elevated plus maze method and antiepileptic activity by using subcutaneous pentylenetetrazole (scPTZ) and maximal electroshock (MES) models and neurotoxicity. Result: The number of derivatives of 5,5-diphenyl hydantoin was developed and optimized. The number of parameters was optimized which reveal that the compound containing chloro group such as C3 and C6 showed imperative potential when compared with the standard drug Diazepam. Other compounds containing nitro and methyl group were also found to possess activity. Conclusion: It was summarized that the new compounds of 5,5-diphenyl hydantoin derivatives were synthesized. The results of the data show that the compound containing chloro group is more potent for CNS activity. The new compounds have the probability of being optimized further to engender new scaffolds to treat various CNS disorders.

Keywords: phenytoin, parameters, CNS activity, blood-brain barrier, Log P, CNS active

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Authors: Surbhi Aggarwal, Jaishree Paul

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Background: Role of GABA has been implicated in autoimmune diseases like multiple sclerosis, type1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis where they modulate the immune response but role in gut inflammation has not been defined. Ulcerative colitis (UC) and diarrhoeal predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-D) both involve inflammation of gastrointestinal tract. UC is a chronic, relapsing and idiopathic inflammation of gut. IBS is a common functional gastrointestinal disorder characterised by abdominal pain, discomfort and alternating bowel habits. Mild inflammation is known to occur in IBS-D. Aim: Aim of this study was to investigate the role of GABA in UC as well as in IBS-D. Materials and methods: Blood and biopsy samples from UC, IBS-D and controls were collected. ELISA was used for measuring level of GABA in serum of UC, IBS-D and controls. RT-PCR analysis was done to determine GABAergic signal system in colon biopsy of UC, IBS-D and controls. RT-PCR was done to check the expression of proinflammatory cytokines. CurveExpert 1.4, Graphpad prism-6 software were used for data analysis. Statistical analysis was done by unpaired, two-way student`s t-test. All sets of data were represented as mean± SEM. A probability level of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results and conclusion: Significantly decreased level of GABA and altered GABAergic signal system was detected in UC and IBS-D as compared to controls. Significantly increased expression of proinflammatory cytokines was also determined in UC and IBS-D as compared to controls. Hence we conclude that insufficient level of GABA in UC and IBS-D leads to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines which further contributes to inflammation. GABA may be used as a promising therapeutic target for treatment of gut inflammation or other inflammatory diseases.

Keywords: diarrheal predominant irritable bowel syndrome, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), inflammation, ulcerative colitis

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Authors: Pierre F. Gerard, Frederic F. Leymarie, William Latham

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Architects have developed a series of objective evaluations, using spatial analysis tools such as Isovist, that show how certain spatial qualities are beneficial to specific human activities hosted in the built environments. In return, they can build more adapted environments by tuning those spatial qualities in their design. In parallel, virtual reality technologies have been developed by engineers with the dream of creating a system that immerses users in a new form of spatial experiences. They already have demonstrated a useful range of benefits not only in simulating critical events to assist people in acquiring new skills, but also to enhance memory retention, to name just a few. This paper investigates the effects of two spatial qualities, openness, and complexity, on cognitive performance within immersive virtual environments. Isovist measure is used to design a series of room settings with different levels of each spatial qualities. In an empirical study, each room was then used by every participant to solve a navigational puzzle game and give a rating of their spatial experience. They were then asked to fill in a questionnaire before solving the visual-spatial memory quiz, which addressed how well they remembered the different rooms. Findings suggest that those spatial qualities have an effect on some of the measures, including navigation performance and memory retention. In particular, there is an order effect for the navigation puzzle game. Participants tended to spend a longer time in the complex room settings. Moreover, there is an interaction effect while with more open settings, participants tended to perform better when in a simple setting; however, with more closed settings, participants tended to perform better in a more complex setting. For the visual-spatial memory quiz, participants performed significantly better within the more open rooms. We believe this is a first step in using virtual environments to enhance participant cognitive performances through better use of specific spatial qualities.

Keywords: architecture, navigation, spatial cognition, virtual reality

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Authors: Nam-Hee Kim, Jang-Hoon Ko, Kwon-Hee Lee

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A relief valve is a mechanical element to keep safety by controlling high pressure. Usually, the high pressure is relieved by using the spring force and letting the fluid to flow from another way out of system. When its normal pressure is reached, the relief valve can return to initial state. The relief valve in this study has been applied for pressure vessel, evaporator, piping line, etc. The relief valve should be designed for smooth operation and should satisfy the structural safety requirement under operating condition. In general, the structural analysis is performed by following fluid flow analysis. In this process, the FSI (Fluid-Structure Interaction) is required to input the force obtained from the output of the flow analysis. Firstly, this study predicts the velocity profile and the pressure distribution in the given system. In this study, the assumptions for flow analysis are as follows: • The flow is steady-state and three-dimensional. • The fluid is Newtonian and incompressible. • The walls of the pipe and valve are smooth. The flow characteristics in this relief valve does not induce any problem. The commercial software ANSYS/CFX is utilized for flow analysis. On the contrary, very high pressure may cause structural problem due to severe stress. The relief valve is made of body, bonnet, guide, piston and nozzle, and its material is stainless steel. To investigate its structural safety, the worst case loading is considered as the pressure of 700 bar. The load is applied to inside the valve, which is greater than the load obtained from FSI. The maximum stress is calculated as 378 MPa by performing the finite element analysis. However, the value is greater than its allowable value. Thus, an alternative design is suggested to improve the structural performance through case study. We found that the sensitive design variable to the strength is the shape of the nozzle. The case study is to vary the size of the nozzle. Finally, it can be seen that the suggested design satisfy the structural design requirement. The FE analysis is performed by using the commercial software ANSYS/Workbench.

Keywords: relief valve, structural analysis, structural design, strength, safety factor

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Authors: Sarra Haouala, Issam Doghri

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In this work, a multiscale computational strategy is proposed for the analysis of structures, which are described at a refined level both in space and in time. The proposal is applied to two-phase viscoelastic-viscoplastic (VE-VP) reinforced thermoplastics subjected to large numbers of cycles. The main aim is to predict the effective long time response while reducing the computational cost considerably. The proposed computational framework is a combination of the mean-field space homogenization based on the generalized incrementally affine formulation for VE-VP composites, and the asymptotic time homogenization approach for coupled isotropic VE-VP homogeneous solids under large numbers of cycles. The time homogenization method is based on the definition of micro and macro-chronological time scales, and on asymptotic expansions of the unknown variables. First, the original anisotropic VE-VP initial-boundary value problem of the composite material is decomposed into coupled micro-chronological (fast time scale) and macro-chronological (slow time-scale) problems. The former is purely VE, and solved once for each macro time step, whereas the latter problem is nonlinear and solved iteratively using fully implicit time integration. Second, mean-field space homogenization is used for both micro and macro-chronological problems to determine the micro and macro-chronological effective behavior of the composite material. The response of the matrix material is VE-VP with J2 flow theory assuming small strains. The formulation exploits the return-mapping algorithm for the J2 model, with its two steps: viscoelastic predictor and plastic corrections. The proposal is implemented for an extended Mori-Tanaka scheme, and verified against finite element simulations of representative volume elements, for a number of polymer composite materials subjected to large numbers of cycles.

Keywords: asymptotic expansions, cyclic loadings, inclusion-reinforced thermoplastics, mean-field homogenization, time homogenization

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Laura Santagostini, Vittoria Guglielmi

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The meaning of the word 'Nature' (literally 'that which is about to be born') has accompanied researchers throughout their study of the environment and has led to the design of technical means to improve the properties of the soil, modifying its structure and/or consistency, thus favouring the emergence and growth of plants. These include soil improvers, i.e. any substance, natural or synthetic, mineral or organic, capable of modifying and improving the chemical, physical, biological and mechanical properties and characteristics of the soil. In particular, GCSCs (Green Composted Soil Conditioners) are soil conditioners produced through a controlled process of transforming selected organic green waste materials, such as clippings from the maintenance of ornamental greenery, crop residues and other plant waste. The use of GCSC in horticulture, fruit growing, industrial cultivation and nursery gardening is an active way to return organic carbon to the soil, thus limiting CO2 emissions and the production of greenhouse gases, and also to limit the environmental impact of peat extraction, which is normally used in these areas of application. With a view to distinguish between GCSC and peats and to assess what further contributions GCSC can provide to the soil and growing plants, we studied the behaviour of the two substrates by chromatographic techniques. After treating the individual soil improvers with different solvents, used individually or by applying a polarity gradient, the extracts obtained were analysed by HPLC and LCMS in order to assess their composition mainly from a qualitative point of view. Data obtained show in GCSC the presence of polyphenolic derivatives attributable to the degradation of plant material and potentially useful for the development and growth of young plants, while commercial peat-based products only sporadically showed the presence of recognisable molecules, confirming the lower complexity of the matrix under analysis. These results allowed us to distinguish the two different types of soil conditioner based on their chromatographic profiles.

Keywords: chromatographic profile, HPLC, polyphenols, soil conditioners

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

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Authors: Paul Saah, Charles Mbohwa, Nelson Sizwe Madonsela

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In the context of developing countries, this study explores a crucial component of economic development by examining the reasons behind the failure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are acknowledged as essential drivers of economic expansion, job creation, and poverty alleviation in emerging countries. This research uses South Africa as a case study to evaluate the reasons why SMEs fail in developing nations. This study explores a quantitative research methodology to investigate the complex causes of SME failures using statistical tools and reliability tests. To ensure the viability of data collection, a sample size of 400 small business owners was chosen using a non-probability selection technique. A closed-ended questionnaire was the primary technique used to obtain detailed information from the participants. Data was analysed and interpreted using computer software packages such as the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). According to the findings, the main reasons why SMEs fail in developing nations are a lack of strategic business planning, a lack of funding, poor management, a lack of innovation, a lack of business research and a low level of education and training. The results of this study show that SMEs can be sustainable and successful as long as they comprehend and use the suggested small business success determining variables into their daily operations. This implies that the more SMEs in developing countries implement the proposed determinant factors of small business success in their business operations the more the businesses are likely to succeed and vice versa.

Keywords: failure, developing countries, SMEs, economic development, South Africa

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Authors: Siddhi Khaire, Samarth Hawaldar, Baladitya Suri

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As efforts towards quantum communication advance, the need for single photon sources becomes imminent. Due to the extremely low energy of a single microwave photon, efforts to build single photon sources and detectors in the microwave range are relatively recent. We plan to use a Cooper Pair Box (CPB) that has a ‘sweet-spot’ where the two energy levels have minimal separation. Moreover, these qubits have fairly large anharmonicity making them close to ideal two-level systems. If the external gate voltage of these qubits is varied rapidly while passing through the sweet-spot, due to Landau-Zener effect, the qubit can be excited almost deterministically. The rapid change of the gate control voltage through the sweet spot induces a non-adiabatic population transfer from the ground to the excited state. The qubit eventually decays into the emission line emitting a single photon. The advantage of this setup is that the qubit can be excited without any coherent microwave excitation, thereby effectively increasing the usable source efficiency due to the absence of control pulse microwave photons. Since the probability of a Landau-Zener transition can be made almost close to unity by the appropriate design of parameters, this source behaves as an on-demand source of single microwave photons. The large anharmonicity of the CPB also ensures that only one excited state is involved in the transition and multiple photon output is highly improbable. Such a system has so far not been implemented and would find many applications in the areas of quantum optics, quantum computation as well as quantum communication.

Keywords: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum optics, superconducting qubits, flux qubit, charge qubit, microwave single photon source, quantum information processing

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Authors: R. Chinyakata, N. R. Raselekoane

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Migration has always been part of human history. Migration is spurred by globalisation which connects nations by encouraging the flow of goods, services, ideas and people across borders. Migration does not only involve movement of adults from one country to another. It also affects and involves the youth as they are the most mobile group. Musina area, like many other border areas, experiences a variety of challenges as a result of the influx of people from the neighbouring Zimbabwe and other African countries. Of great concern about this migration is the fact that the host country or area may become unsafe and unstable as a result of huge influx of migrants. There may also be tensions between local people and migrants over the resources. The study sought to investigate the effects of the Zimbabwean youth migration on Musina area. The study was undertaken in Musina area which is situated 18km from the Beit-Bridge border post. A qualitative research approach was used. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data. Non-probability quota sampling technique was used to select the respondents. The study sample consisted of sixteen female and male respondents. Thematic coding was used to analyse the data. Ethical considerations such as informed consent, confidentiality, anonymity and voluntary participation were taken into account to protect the participants. The study found that the effects of the Zimbabwean youth migration on the Musina area include, among others, tensions between locals and the Zimbabwean youth migrants over resources, job and business opportunities, overcrowding and crime. Multi-pronged strategies which involve different stakeholders should be applied to address tensions over job and business opportunities, overcrowding and crime in the Musina area.

Keywords: host country, effects, migrant, migration, Musina, youth, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Habte Tadesse Likassa, Bacha Edosa

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Customer’s satisfaction was very important thing that is required for the existence of banks to be more productive and success in any organization and business area. The main goal of the study is assessing and identifying factors that influence customer’s satisfaction in West Shoa Zone of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (Holeta, Ginchi, Ambo, Gedo and Bako). Stratified random sampling procedure was used in the study and by using simple random sampling (lottery method) 520 customers were drawn from the target population. By using Probability Proportional Size Techniques sample size for each branch of banks were allocated. Both descriptive and inferential statistics methods were used in the study. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to see the significance of factors affecting customer’s satisfaction in this study. SPSS statistical package was used for data analysis. The result of the study reveals that the overall level of customer’s satisfaction in the study area is low (38.85%) as compared those who were not satisfied (61.15%). The result of study showed that all most all factors included in the study were significantly associated with customer’s satisfaction. Therefore, it can be concluded that based on the comparison of branches on their customers satisfaction by using odd ratio customers who were using Ambo and Bako are less satisfied as compared to customers who were in Holeta branch. Additionally, customers who were in Ginchi and Gedo were more satisfied than that of customers who were in Holeta. Since the level of customers satisfaction was low in the study area, it is more advisable and recommended for concerned body works cooperatively more in maximizing satisfaction of their customers.

Keywords: customers, satisfaction, binary logistic, complain handling process, waiting time

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Kasturi Bhuyan

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In the present paper, Ground Response Analysis at the Rukni irrigation project has been thoroughly investigated. Surface level seismic hazard is mainly used by the practical Engineers for designing the important structures. Surface level seismic hazard can be obtained accounting the soil factor. Structures on soft soil will show more ground shaking than the structure located on a hard soil. The Surface level ground motion depends on the type of soil. Density and shear wave velocity is different for different types of soil. The intensity of the soil amplification depends on the density and shear wave velocity of the soil. Rukni irrigation project is located in the North Eastern region of India, near the Dauki fault (550 Km length) which has already produced earthquakes of magnitude (Mw= 8.5) in the past. There is a probability of a similar type of earthquake occuring in the future. There are several faults also located around the project site. There are 765 recorded strong ground motion time histories available for the region. These data are used to determine the soil amplification factor by incorporation of the engineering properties of soil. With this in view, three of soil bore holes have been studied at the project site up to a depth of 30 m. It has been observed that in Soil bore hole 1, the shear wave velocity vary from 99.44 m/s to 239.28 m/s. For Soil Bore Hole No 2 and 3, shear wave velocity vary from 93.24 m/s to 241.39 m/s and 93.24m/s to 243.01 m/s. In the present work, surface level seismic hazard at the project site has been calculated based on the Probabilistic seismic hazard approach accounting the soil factor.

Keywords: Ground Response Analysis, shear wave velocity, soil amplification, surface level seismic hazard

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Authors: Xiangjun Li, Huaiyuan Tian, Wujie Zhang, Dianhua Liu

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Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODE_n) as clean diesel additive can improve the combustion efficiency and quality of diesel fuel and alleviate the problem of atmospheric pollution. Considering synthetic routes, PODE production from methanol and formaldehyde is regarded as the most economical and promising synthetic route. However, methanol used for synthesizing PODE can produce water, which causes the loss of active center of catalyst and hydrolysis of PODE_n in the production process. Macroporous strong acidic cation exchange resin catalyst was prepared, which has comparative advantages over other common solid acid catalysts in terms of stability and catalytic efficiency for synthesizing PODE. Catalytic reactions were carried out under 353 K, 1 MPa and 3mL·g_cat^-1·h^-1 in a fixed bed reactor. Methanol conversion and PODE_3-6 selectivity reached 49.91% and 23.43%, respectively. Catalyst lifetime evaluation showed that resin catalyst retained its catalytic activity for 20 days without significant changes and catalytic activity of completely deactivated resin catalyst can basically return to previous level by simple acid regeneration. The acid exchange capacities of original and deactivated catalyst were 2.5191 and 0.0979 mmol·g^-1, respectively, while regenerated catalyst reached 2.0430 mmol·g^-1, indicating that the main reason for resin catalyst deactivation is that Brønsted acid sites of original resin catalyst were temporarily replaced by non-hydrogen ion cations. A separation process consisting of extraction and distillation for PODE_3-6 product was designed for separation of water and unreacted formaldehyde from reactive mixture and purification of PODE_3-6, respectively. The concentration of PODE_3-6 in final product can reach up to 97%. These results indicate that the scale-up production of PODE_3-6 from methanol and formaldehyde solution is feasible.

Keywords: inactivation, polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers, separation process, sulfonic cation exchange resin

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Authors: Pornwipa Daoduong, Jairak Loysongkroa, Napaphan Viriyautsahakul, Wachira Pengjuntr

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Obesity is on of serious health problem in many countries including Thailand where the prevalence of childhood obesity has increased from 8.8 % in 2014 to 9.5 % in 2015 and 12.9 % in 2016. The Ministry of Public Health’s objective is to reduce prevalence of childhood Obesity to 10% or lower in 2017, by implementing the measure in relation to nutrition, physical activity (PA) and environment in 6,405 targeted school with proportion of school children with obesity is higher than 10 %. Smart Kids Coacher (SKC)” is a new innovative intervention created by Department of Health and consists of 252 regional and provincial officers. The SKC aims to train the super trainers about food and nutrition.PA and emotional control through implementing three learning activities including 1) Food for Fun is about Nutrition flag, Nutrition label, food portion and Nutrition surveillance; 2) Fun for Fit includes intermediated- and advanced level workouts within 60 minutes such as kangaroo dance, Chair stretching; and 3) Control emotional is about to prevent probability of access to unhealthy food, to ensure for having meal in appropriate time, and to recruit peers and family member to increase awareness among target groups. Apart from providing SKC lesson for 3,828 officers at district level, a number of students (2,176) as role model are selected through implementing “Smart Kids Leader: (SKL)”.Consequently. The SKC lowers proportion of childhood obesity from 17% in 2012 to 12.9% in 2016. Further, the SKC coverage should be expanded to other setting. Policy maker should be aware of the important of reduction of the prevalence of childhood obesity, and it’s related risk. Network and Collaboration between stakeholders are essential as well as an improvement of holistic intervention and knowledge “NuPETHS” for kids in the future.

Keywords: childhood obesity, model, obesity, smart kids coacher

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Authors: Mitra Assadi, Md. Faan

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Background: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in a common neurodevelopmental disorder with limited pharmacological interventions. Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) has produced promising results in ASD, although there is no consensus regarding optimal targets or stimulation paradigms. A prevailing theory in ASD attributes the core deficits to dysfunction of the mirror neurons located in the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). Methods: Thus far, 11 subjects with ASD, 10 boys and 1 girl with the mean age of 13.36 years have completed the study by receiving 10 session of high frequency rTMS to the IPL. The subjects were randomized to receive stimulation on the left or right IPL and sham stimulation to the opposite side. The outcome measures included the Social Responsiveness Scale – Second Edition (SRS-2) and Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) Verbal Fluency task. Results: None of the 11 subjects experienced any adverse effects. The rTMS did not produce any improvement in verbal fluency, nor there was any statistically significant difference between the right versus left sided stimulation. Analysis of social awareness on SRS-2 (SRS-AWR) indicated a close to significant effect of the treatment with a small to medium effect size. After removing a single subject with Level 3 ASD, we demonstrated a close to significant improvement on SRS-AWR with a large effect size. The analysis of the data 3-month post TMS demonstrated return of the SRS-AWR values to baseline. Conclusion: This preliminary analysis of the 11 subjects who have completed our study thus far shows a favorable response to high frequency rTMS stimulation of the mirror neurons/IPL on social awareness. While the decay of the response noted during the 3-month follow-up may be considered a limitation of rTMS, the presence of the improvement, especially the effect size despite the small sample size, is indicative of the efficacy of this technique.

Keywords: rTMS, autism, scoial cognition, mirror neurons

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Authors: Donna Erika E. De Jesus

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Introduction: Cardiac arrest occurs when abrupt cessation of cardiac function results in loss of effective circulation and complete cardiovascular collapse. For every minute of cardiac arrest without early intervention (cardiopulmonary resuscitation [CPR], defibrillation), chances of survival drop by 7-10%. It is crucial that CPR be initiated within 4-6 minutes to avoid brain death. Most out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) occur in a residential setting where access to trained personnel and equipment is not readily available, resulting in poor victim outcomes. Methods: This is a descriptive study done from August to November 2021 using a prospective cohort design. Participants of the study include adult patients aged 18 years and above brought to the emergency room who suffered from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Out of the total 102 cases of OHCA, 63 participants were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Results: 43 were male patients, comprising the majority at 73.02%. Hypertension was identified as the top co-morbidity, followed by diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Medical causes of arrest were identified in 96.83% of the cases. 90.48% of cardiac arrests occurred at home. Only 26 patients (41.27%) received pre-hospital intervention prior to ER arrival, which comprised only hands-only CPR. Twenty-three of which were performed by individuals with background knowledge of CPR. 60.32% were brought via self-conduction, the remainder by ambulances, which were noted to have no available equipment necessary to provide proper resuscitation. The average travel time from dispatch to ER arrival is 20 minutes. Conclusion: Overall survival of OHCA in our local setting remains dismal, as a return of spontaneous circulation was not achieved in any of the patients. The small number of patients having pre-hospital CPR indicates the need for emphasis on training and community education.

Keywords: out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, basic life support, emergency medical services

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Authors: Miguel A. Orellana, Sonia E. Ruiz, Juan Bojórquez

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Optimal load factors (dead, live and seismic) used for the design of buildings may be different, depending of the seismic ground motion characteristics to which they are subjected, which are closely related to the type of soil conditions where the structures are located. The influence of the type of soil on those load factors, is analyzed in the present study. A methodology that is useful for establishing optimal load factors that minimize the cost over the life cycle of the structure is employed; and as a restriction, it is established that the probability of structural failure must be less than or equal to a prescribed value. The life-cycle cost model used here includes different types of costs. The optimization methodology is applied to two groups of reinforced concrete buildings. One set (consisting on 4-, 7-, and 10-story buildings) is located on firm ground (with a dominant period Ts=0.5 s) and the other (consisting on 6-, 12-, and 16-story buildings) on soft soil (Ts=1.5 s) of Mexico City. Each group of buildings is designed using different combinations of load factors. The statistics of the maximums inter-story drifts (associated with the structural capacity) are found by means of incremental dynamic analyses. The buildings located on firm zone are analyzed under the action of 10 strong seismic records, and those on soft zone, under 13 strong ground motions. All the motions correspond to seismic subduction events with magnitudes M=6.9. Then, the structural damage and the expected total costs, corresponding to each group of buildings, are estimated. It is concluded that the optimal load factors combination is different for the design of buildings located on firm ground than that for buildings located on soft soil.

Keywords: life-cycle cost, optimal load factors, reinforced concrete buildings, total costs, type of soil

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Authors: M. Vlahovic

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This paper presents a model of public finances, which combines three concepts: participatory budgeting, crowdfunding and blockchain technology. Participatory budgeting is defined as a process in which community members decide how to spend a part of community’s budget. Crowdfunding is a practice of funding a project by collecting small monetary contributions from a large number of people via an Internet platform. Blockchain technology is a distributed ledger that enables efficient and reliable transactions that are secure and transparent. In this hypothetical model, the government or authorities on local/regional level would set up a platform where they would propose public projects to citizens. Citizens would browse through projects and support or vote for those which they consider justified and necessary. In return, they would be entitled to a tax relief in the amount of their monetary contribution. Since the blockchain technology enables tracking of transactions, it can be used to mitigate corruption, money laundering and lack of transparency in public finances. Models of its application have already been created for e-voting, health records or land registries. By presenting a model of application of blockchain technology in public finances, this paper takes into consideration the potential of blockchain technology to disrupt governments and make processes more democratic, secure, transparent and efficient. The framework for this paper consists of multiple streams of research, including key concepts of direct democracy, public finance (especially the voluntary theory of public finance), information and communication technology, especially blockchain technology and crowdfunding. The framework defines rules of the game, basic conditions for the implementation of the model, benefits, potential problems and development perspectives. As an oversimplified map of a new form of public finances, the proposed model identifies primary factors, that influence the possibility of implementation of the model, and that could be tracked, measured and controlled in case of experimentation with the model.

Keywords: blockchain technology, distributed ledger, participatory budgeting, crowdfunding, direct democracy, internet platform, e-government, public finance

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Authors: Panagodage Janaka Sampath Fernando

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Brain circulation has become a buzzword in the skilled migration literature. However, promoting brain circulation; returning of skilled migrants is challenging. Success stories in Asia, for instances, Taiwan, and China, are results of rigorous policy interventions of the respective governments. Nonetheless, the same policy mix has failed in other countries making it skeptical to attribute the success of brain circulation to the policy interventions per se. The paper seeks to answer whether the success of brain circulation within the Knowledge Services Industry (KSI) in Sri Lanka is a policy driven or a market driven process. Mixed method approach, which is a combination of case study and survey methods, was employed. Qualitative data derived from ten case studies of returned entrepreneurs whereas quantitative data generated from a self-administered survey of 205 returned skilled migrants (returned skilled employees and entrepreneurs) within KSI. The pull factors have driven the current flow of brain circulation within KSI but to a lesser extent, push factors also have influenced. The founding stone of the industry has been laid by a group of returned entrepreneurs, and the subsequent growth of the industry has attracted returning skilled employees. Sri Lankan government has not actively implemented the reverse brain drain model, however, has played a passive role by creating a peaceful and healthy environment for the industry. Therefore, in contrast to the other stories, brain circulation within KSI has emerged as a market driven process with minimal government interventions. Entrepreneurs play the main role in a market-driven process of brain circulation, and it is free from the inherent limitations of the reverse brain drain model such as discriminating non-migrants and generating a sudden flow of low-skilled migrants. Thus, to experience a successful brain circulation, developing countries should promote returned entrepreneurs by creating opportunities in knowledge-based industries.

Keywords: brain circulation, knowledge services industry, return migration, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Eke Balla Sophie Michelle

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Forest provides a wide range of environmental goods and services among which, biodiversity or consumption goods and constitute public goods. Despite the importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in sustaining livelihood and poverty smoothening in rural communities, they are highly depleted and poorly conserved. Yokadouma is a town where NTFPs is a renewable resource in active exploitation. It has been found that such exploitation is done in the same conditions as other localities that have experienced a rapid depletion of their NTFPs in destination to cities across Cameroon, Central Africa, and overseas. Given these realities, it is necessary to access the consequences of this overexploitation through negative effects on both the population and the environment. Therefore, to enhance participatory conservation initiatives, this study determines the household’s willingness to pay in community forest (CF) of Morikouali-ye, eastern region of Cameroon, for sustainable exploitation of NTFPs using contingent valuation method (CVM) through two approaches, one parametric (Logit model) and the other non-parametric (estimator of the Turnbull lower bound). The results indicate that five species are the most collected in the study area: Irvingia gabonensis, the Ricinodendron heudelotii, Gnetum, the Jujube and bark, their sale contributes significantly to 41 % of total household income. The average willingness to pay through the Logit model and the Turnbull estimator is 6845.2861 FCFA and 4940 FCFA respectively per household per year with a social cost of degradation estimated at 3237820.3253 FCFA years. The probability to pay increases with income, gender, number of women in the household, age, the commercial activity of NTFPs and decreases with the concept of sustainable development.

Keywords: non timber forest product, contingent valuation method, willingness to pay, sustainable development

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Authors: Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, Malik Koubi, Joseph Lanfranchi, Yohan Wloczysiak

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This article assesses the consequences on the frequency and duration of ordinary sick leave of the January 2012 and 2018 reforms modifying the scope of sick leave reimbursement in the French civil service. These reforms introduce a one-day waiting period which removes the compensation for the first day of ordinary sick leave. In order to evaluate these reforms, we use an administrative database from the National Pension Fund for local public employees (FPT). The first important result of our data analysis is that the one-day waiting period was not introduced at the same time in the French Local Public Service establishments, or even never in some. This peculiarity allows for an identification strategy using a difference-in-differences method based on the definition at each date of groups of employees treated and not treated by the reform, since establishments that apply the one-day waiting period coexist with establishments that do not apply it. Two types of estimators are used for this evaluation: individual and time fixed effects estimators and DIDM estimators which correct for the biases of the Two Way Fixed Effects one. The results confirm that the change in the sick pay system decreases the probability of having at least one ordinary sick leave as well as the number and duration of these episodes. On the other hand, the estimates show that longer leave episodes are not less affected than shorter ones. Finally, the validity tests of the estimators support the results obtained for the second period of 2018-2019, but suggest estimation biases for the period 2012-2013. The extent to which the endogeneity of the choices of implementation of the reform at the local level impact these estimates needs to be further tested.

Keywords: sick leave, one-day waiting period, territorial civil service, public policy evaluation

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Authors: Lamees Nasser, Yago Diez, Robert Martí, Joan Martí, Ibrahim Sadek

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Automated 3D breast ultrasound (ABUS) screening is a novel modality in medical imaging because of its common characteristics shared with other ultrasound modalities in addition to the three orthogonal planes (i.e., axial, sagittal, and coronal) that are useful in analysis of tumors. In the literature, few automatic approaches exist for typical tasks such as segmentation or registration. In this work, we deal with two problems concerning ABUS images: nipple and rib detection. Nipple and ribs are the most visible and salient features in ABUS images. Determining the nipple position plays a key role in some applications for example evaluation of registration results or lesion follow-up. We present a nipple detection algorithm based on color and shape of the nipple, besides an automatic approach to detect the ribs. In point of fact, rib detection is considered as one of the main stages in chest wall segmentation. This approach consists of four steps. First, images are normalized in order to minimize the intensity variability for a given set of regions within the same image or a set of images. Second, the normalized images are smoothed by using anisotropic diffusion filter. Next, the ribs are detected in each slice by analyzing the eigenvalues of the 3D Hessian matrix. Finally, a breast mask and a probability map of regions detected as ribs are used to remove false positives (FP). Qualitative and quantitative evaluation obtained from a total of 22 cases is performed. For all cases, the average and standard deviation of the root mean square error (RMSE) between manually annotated points placed on the rib surface and detected points on rib borders are 15.1188 mm and 14.7184 mm respectively.

Keywords: Automated 3D Breast Ultrasound, Eigenvalues of Hessian matrix, Nipple detection, Rib detection

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Authors: Balbasatu Ibrahim

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In the 19th century, Hausaland an Islamic revolution known as the Sokoto Jihad took place that led to the establishment of the Sokoto Caliphate in 1804 under the leadership of the famous Sheik Uthman Bn Fodiye. Before the Jihad movement in Hausaland (now Northern Nigeria), women were left in ignorance and were used and dumped like old kitchen utensils. The sheik and his followers did their best to actualising women’s right to education by using their female family members as role models who were highly educated and renowned scholars. After the Jihad with the establishment of an Islamic state, the women scholars initiated different strategies to teach the generality of the women. The most efficient strategy was the ‘Yantaru Movement founded by Nana Asma’u the daughter of Sheikh Uthman Bn Fodiye in collaboration with her sisters around 1840. The ‘Yantaru movement is a women’s educational movement aimed at enlightening women in rural and urban areas. The move helped in massively mobilizing women for education. In addition to town pupils, women from villages and throughout the nooks and crannies of metropolitan Sokoto participated in the movement in the search for knowledge. Thus, the birth of the ‘Yantaru system of women’s education. The ‘Yantaru operates the three-tier system at village, town and the metropolitan capital of Sokoto. ‘Yantaru functions include imparting knowledge to elderly women and young girls. Step down enlightenment program on returning home. The most effective medium of communication in the ‘Yantaru movement was through poetry where scholars composed educational poems which were memorized by the ‘Yantaru, who on return recite it to fellow women at home. Through this system, many women were educated. This paper translated and examines one of such educative poems written by the second leader of the ‘Yantaru Movement Maryam Bn Uthman Bn Fodiye in 1855.

Keywords: English, Hausa language, public enlightenment, Maryam Bint Uthman Ibn Foduye

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Authors: Mara A. C. Lopes

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Hiring a second teacher to accompany deaf students inserted at Brazilian inclusive school system has raised questions about its role in the educational process of deaf students. Federal policies determine that deaf students inserted in regular education are accompanied by sign language interpreters, which leads to the understanding that the second teacher should assume this function. However, what those professionals do is to assume the function of teaching deaf student, instead of the classroom main teacher. Historical-Cultural Psychology was used as a reference for analysis, which aimed to identify the social function of the second teacher in the classroom. Two studies were accomplished in the public schools of Sao Paulo State: In Study 1, videotaped lectures provided by the Department of Education for collective reflection about the second teacher's role were examined, to identify the social meaning of that professional activity. Study 2 aimed to analyze the process of assigning personal sense to the teacher activity, considering the opinions of 21 professionals from Sao Paulo. Those teachers were interviewed individually with the support of a semi-structured interview. The analysis method utilized was: empirical description of data; development of categories, for reality abstraction; identifying the unit analysis; and return to reality, in order to explain it. Study 1 showed that the social meaning of the second teacher's activity is, also, to teach. However, Study 2 showed that this meaning is not shared among professionals of the school, so they understand that they must act as sign language interpreters. That comprehension causes a disruption between social meaning and the personal sense they attach to their activity. It also shows the need of both teachers at the classroom planning and executing activity together. On the contrary, a relationship of subordination of one teacher to another was identified, excluding the second teacher and the deaf student of the main activity. Results indicate that the second teacher, as a teacher, must take the responsibility for deaf student education, consciously, and to promote the full development of the subjects involved.

Keywords: deaf education, historical-cultural psychology, inclusion, teacher function

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