Search results for: decision support system (DSS)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 25345

Search results for: decision support system (DSS)

10375 Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience: A Systematic Literature Review, Holistic Framework, and Future Research

Authors: Adane Kassa Shikur

Abstract:

Today’s supply chains (SC) have become vulnerable to unexpected and ever-intensifying disruptions from myriad sources. Consequently, the concept of supply chain resilience (SCRes) has become crucial to complement the conventional risk management paradigm, which has failed to cope with unexpected SC disruptions, resulting in severe consequences affecting SC performances and making business continuity questionable. Advancements in cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and their potential to enhance SCRes by improving critical antecedents in the different phases have attracted the attention of scholars and practitioners. The research from academia and the practical interest of the industry have yielded significant publications at the nexus of AI and SCRes during the last two decades. However, the applications and examinations have been primarily conducted independently, and the extant literature is dispersed into research streams despite the complex nature of SCRes. To close this research gap, this study conducts a systematic literature review of 106 peer-reviewed articles by curating, synthesizing, and consolidating up-to-date literature and presents the state-of-the-art development from 2010 to 2022. Bayesian networks are the most topical ones among the 13 AI techniques evaluated. Concerning the critical antecedents, visibility is the first ranking to be realized by the techniques. The study revealed that AI techniques support only the first 3 phases of SCRes (readiness, response, and recovery), and readiness is the most popular one, while no evidence has been found for the growth phase. The study proposed an AI-SCRes framework to inform research and practice to approach SCRes holistically. It also provided implications for practice, policy, and theory as well as gaps for impactful future research.

Keywords: ANNs, risk, Bauesian networks, vulnerability, resilience

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10374 An Engineer-Oriented Life Cycle Assessment Tool for Building Carbon Footprint: The Building Carbon Footprint Evaluation System in Taiwan

Authors: Hsien-Te Lin

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The purpose of this paper is to introduce the BCFES (building carbon footprint evaluation system), which is a LCA (life cycle assessment) tool developed by the Low Carbon Building Alliance (LCBA) in Taiwan. A qualified BCFES for the building industry should fulfill the function of evaluating carbon footprint throughout all stages in the life cycle of building projects, including the production, transportation and manufacturing of materials, construction, daily energy usage, renovation and demolition. However, many existing BCFESs are too complicated and not very designer-friendly, creating obstacles in the implementation of carbon reduction policies. One of the greatest obstacle is the misapplication of the carbon footprint inventory standards of PAS2050 or ISO14067, which are designed for mass-produced goods rather than building projects. When these product-oriented rules are applied to building projects, one must compute a tremendous amount of data for raw materials and the transportation of construction equipment throughout the construction period based on purchasing lists and construction logs. This verification method is very cumbersome by nature and unhelpful to the promotion of low carbon design. With a view to provide an engineer-oriented BCFE with pre-diagnosis functions, a component input/output (I/O) database system and a scenario simulation method for building energy are proposed herein. Most existing BCFESs base their calculations on a product-oriented carbon database for raw materials like cement, steel, glass, and wood. However, data on raw materials is meaningless for the purpose of encouraging carbon reduction design without a feedback mechanism, because an engineering project is not designed based on raw materials but rather on building components, such as flooring, walls, roofs, ceilings, roads or cabinets. The LCBA Database has been composited from existing carbon footprint databases for raw materials and architectural graphic standards. Project designers can now use the LCBA Database to conduct low carbon design in a much more simple and efficient way. Daily energy usage throughout a building's life cycle, including air conditioning, lighting, and electric equipment, is very difficult for the building designer to predict. A good BCFES should provide a simplified and designer-friendly method to overcome this obstacle in predicting energy consumption. In this paper, the author has developed a simplified tool, the dynamic Energy Use Intensity (EUI) method, to accurately predict energy usage with simple multiplications and additions using EUI data and the designed efficiency levels for the building envelope, AC, lighting and electrical equipment. Remarkably simple to use, it can help designers pre-diagnose hotspots in building carbon footprint and further enhance low carbon designs. The BCFES-LCBA offers the advantages of an engineer-friendly component I/O database, simplified energy prediction methods, pre-diagnosis of carbon hotspots and sensitivity to good low carbon designs, making it an increasingly popular carbon management tool in Taiwan. To date, about thirty projects have been awarded BCFES-LCBA certification and the assessment has become mandatory in some cities.

Keywords: building carbon footprint, life cycle assessment, energy use intensity, building energy

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10373 Search for APN Permutations in Rings ℤ_2×ℤ_2^k

Authors: Daniel Panario, Daniel Santana de Freitas, Brett Stevens

Abstract:

Almost Perfect Nonlinear (APN) permutations with optimal resistance against differential cryptanalysis can be found in several domains. The permutation used in the standard for symmetric cryptography (the AES), for example, is based on a special kind of inversion in GF(28). Although very close to APN (2-uniform), this permutation still contains one number 4 in its differential spectrum, which means that, rigorously, it must be classified as 4-uniform. This fact motivates the search for fully APN permutations in other domains of definition. The extremely high complexity associated to this kind of problem precludes an exhaustive search for an APN permutation with 256 elements to be performed without the support of a suitable mathematical structure. On the other hand, in principle, there is nothing to indicate which mathematically structured domains can effectively help the search, and it is necessary to test several domains. In this work, the search for APN permutations in rings ℤ2×ℤ2k is investigated. After a full, exhaustive search with k=2 and k=3, all possible APN permutations in those rings were recorded, together with their differential profiles. Some very promising heuristics in these cases were collected so that, when used as a basis to prune backtracking for the same search in ℤ2×ℤ8 (search space with size 16! ≅244), just a few tenths of a second were enough to produce an APN permutation in a single CPU. Those heuristics were empirically extrapolated so that they could be applied to a backtracking search for APNs over ℤ2×ℤ16 (search space with size 32! ≅2117). The best permutations found in this search were further refined through Simulated Annealing, with a definition of neighbors suitable to this domain. The best result produced with this scheme was a 3-uniform permutation over ℤ2×ℤ16 with only 24 values equal to 3 in the differential spectrum (all the other 968 values were less than or equal 2, as it should be the case for an APN permutation). Although far from being fully APN, this result is technically better than a 4-uniform permutation and demanded only a few seconds in a single CPU. This is a strong indication that the use of mathematically structured domains, like the rings described in this work, together with heuristics based on smaller cases, can lead to dramatic cuts in the computational resources involved in the complexity of the search for APN permutations in extremely large domains.

Keywords: APN permutations, heuristic searches, symmetric cryptography, S-box design

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10372 Motherhood and Its Essence among Zimbabwean Migrant Women in Australia

Authors: Pranee Liamputtong

Abstract:

Childlessness in non-Western societies has wide-ranging social implications and profoundly affects the gender identity and well-being of women. The aspirations of women in these societies are shaped by various sociocultural expectations, encompassing social norms and their own social standing. Currently, there is limited knowledge regarding the perceptions and experiences of Zimbabwean migrant women living in Australia regarding childlessness and motherhood. This paper explores the cultural perspective on children in Zimbabwean society and investigates the personal and social consequences of infertility, as well as the cultural expectations of motherhood among Zimbabwean migrant women residing in Australia. The perceptions and experiences of this migrant community are of utmost importance in order to prevent misunderstandings about the core essence of motherhood among Zimbabwean women. Ultimately, this will lead to the provision of sensitive and culturally appropriate healthcare and social support for migrants in Australia's multicultural society. The study adopts a constructivist paradigm and employs qualitative methods, including in-depth interviews, drawings, and photo elicitation, involving 15 Zimbabwean women. Thematic analysis was employed to analyze the data. In Zimbabwean culture, the ability to bear a child holds significant meaning for women. Children not only ensure the continuity of society but also provide social security, as parents rely on their children for care in old age. Childlessness jeopardizes a woman's social status and carries social repercussions that have a profound impact on their gender identity and well-being. Cultural expectations of motherhood place the sole responsibility for the emotional and physical care of children on the mother. Despite residing in Australia, the procreative value has not diminished for Zimbabwean women. Raising awareness of the procreative needs of Zimbabwean women in a culturally sensitive manner would enhance the emotional well-being of these women.

Keywords: motherhood, culture, migrant women, Zimbabwe, Australia

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10371 Fluorescence Gold Nanoparticles: Sensing Properties and Cytotoxicity Studies in MCF-7 Human Breast Cancer Cells

Authors: Cristina Núñez, Rufina Bastida, Elena Labisbal, Alejandro Macías, María T. Pereira, José M. Vila

Abstract:

A highly selective quinoline-based fluorescent sensor L was designed in order to functionalize gold nanoparticles (GNPs@L). The cytotoxicity of compound L and GNPs@L on the MCF-7 breast cancer cells was explored and it was observed that L and GNPs@L compounds induced apoptosis in MCF-7 cancer cells. The cellular uptake of the hybrid system GNPs@L was studied using confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM).

Keywords: cytotoxicity, fluorescent probes, nanoparticles, quinoline

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10370 Sustainability Assessment of a Deconstructed Residential House

Authors: Atiq U. Zaman, Juliet Arnott

Abstract:

This paper analyses the various benefits and barriers of residential deconstruction in the context of environmental performance and circular economy based on a case study project in Christchurch, New Zealand. The case study project “Whole House Deconstruction” which aimed, firstly, to harvest materials from a residential house, secondly, to produce new products using the recovered materials, and thirdly, to organize an exhibition for the local public to promote awareness on resource conservation and sustainable deconstruction practices. Through a systematic deconstruction process, the project recovered around 12 tonnes of various construction materials, most of which would otherwise be disposed of to landfill in the traditional demolition approach. It is estimated that the deconstruction of a similar residential house could potentially prevent around 27,029 kg of carbon emission to the atmosphere by recovering and reusing the building materials. In addition, the project involved local designers to produce 400 artefacts using the recovered materials and to exhibit them to accelerate public awareness. The findings from this study suggest that the deconstruction project has significant environmental benefits, as well as social benefits by involving the local community and unemployed youth as a part of their professional skills development opportunities. However, the project faced a number of economic and institutional challenges. The study concludes that with proper economic models and appropriate institutional support a significant amount of construction and demolition waste can be reduced through a systematic deconstruction process. Traditionally, the greatest benefits from such projects are often ignored and remain unreported to wider audiences as most of the external and environmental costs have not been considered in the traditional linear economy.

Keywords: circular economy, construction and demolition waste, resource recovery, systematic deconstruction, sustainable waste management

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10369 Antecedents of Regret and Satisfaction in Electronic Commerce

Authors: Chechen Liao, Pui-Lai To, Chuang-Chun Liu

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Online shopping has become very popular recently. In today’s highly competitive online retail environment, retaining existing customers is a necessity for online retailers. This study focuses on the antecedents and consequences of Internet buyer regret and satisfaction in the online consumer purchasing process. This study examines the roles that online consumer’s purchasing process evaluations (i.e., search experience difficulty, service-attribute evaluations, product-attribute evaluations and post-purchase price perceptions) and alternative evaluation (i.e., alternative attractiveness) play in determining buyer regret and satisfaction in e-commerce. The study also examines the consequences of regret, satisfaction and habit in regard to repurchase intention. In addition, this study attempts to investigate the moderating role of habit in attaining a better understanding of the relationship between repurchase intention and its antecedents. Survey data collected from 431 online customers are analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) with partial least squares (PLS) and support provided for the hypothesized links. These results indicate that online consumer’s purchasing process evaluations (i.e., search experience difficulty, service-attribute evaluations, product-attribute evaluations and post-purchase price perceptions) have significant influences on regret and satisfaction, which in turn influences repurchase intention. In addition, alternative evaluation (i.e., alternative attractiveness) has a significant positive influence on regret. The research model can provide a richer understanding of online customers’ repurchase behavior and contribute to both research and practice.

Keywords: online shopping, purchase evaluation, regret, satisfaction

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10368 Universal Health Coverage 2019 in Indonesia: The Integration of Family Planning Services in Current Functioning Health System

Authors: Fathonah Siti, Ardiana Irma

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Indonesia is currently on its track to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2019. The program aims to address issues on disintegration in the implementation and coverage of various health insurance schemes and fragmented fund pooling. Family planning service is covered as one of benefit packages under preventive care. However, little has been done to examine how family planning program are appropriately managed across levels of governments and how family planning services are delivered to the end user. The study is performed through focus group discussion to related policy makers and selected programmers at central and district levels. The study is also benefited from relevant studies on family planning in the UHC scheme and other supporting data. The study carefully investigates some programmatic implications when family planning is integrated in the UHC program encompassing the need to recalculate contraceptive logistics for beneficiaries (eligible couple); policy reformulation for contraceptive service provision including supply chain management; establishment of family planning standard of procedure; and a call to update Management Information System. The study confirms that there is a significant increase in the numbers of contraceptive commodities needs to be procured by the government. Holding an assumption that contraceptive prevalence rate and commodities cost will be as expected increasing at 0.5% annually, the government need to allocate almost IDR 5 billion by 2019, excluded fee for service. The government shifts its focus to maintain eligible health facilities under National Population and Family Planning Board networks. By 2019, the government has set strategies to anticipate the provision of family planning services to 45.340 health facilities distributed in 514 districts and 7 thousand sub districts. Clear division of authorities has been established among levels of governments. Three models of contraceptive supply planning have been developed and currently in the process of being institutionalized. Pre service training for family planning services has been piloted in 10 prominent universities. The position of private midwives has been appreciated as part of the system. To ensure the implementation of quality and health expenditure control, family planning standard has been established as a reference to determine set of services required to deliver to the clients properly and types of health facilities to conduct particular family planning services. Recognition to individual status of program participation has been acknowledged in the Family Enumeration since 2015. The data is precisely recorded by name by address for each family and its members. It supplies valuable information to 15.131 Family Planning Field Workers (FPFWs) to provide information and education related to family planning in an attempt to generate demand and maintain the participation of family planning acceptors who are program beneficiaries. Despite overwhelming efforts described above, some obstacles remain. The program experiences poor socialization and yet removes geographical barriers for those living in remote areas. Family planning services provided for this sub population conducted outside the scheme as a complement strategy. However, UHC program has brought remarkable improvement in access and quality of family planning services.

Keywords: beneficiary, family planning services, national population and family planning board, universal health coverage

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10367 Pricing and Economic Benefits of Commercial Insurance Incorporated into Home-based Hospice Care

Authors: Lie-Fen Lin, Tzu-Hsuan Lin, Ching-Heng Lin

Abstract:

Hospice care for terminally ill patients provides not only a better quality of life but also cost-saving benefits. However, the utilization of home-based hospice care (HBH care) remains low even for countries covered by National Health Insurance (NHI) programs in Taiwan. In the current commercial insurance policy, only hospital-based hospice benefits were covered. It may have an influence on the insureds chosen to receive end-of-life care in a hospitalized manner. Thus, how to propose a feasible method to advocate HBH care utilization rate of public health policies is an important issue. A total of 130,219 cancer decedents in the year 2011-2013 from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan were included in this study. By adding a day volume pays benefits of HBH care as a commercial insurance rider, will provide alternative benefits for the insureds. A multiple-state Markov chain model was incorporated to estimate the transition intensities of patients in different states at the end of their lives (Non-hospice, HBH, hospital-based hospice), and the premiums were estimated. HBH care insurance benefits provide financial support and reduce the burden of care for patients. The rate-making of this product is very sensitive while the utilization rate is rising, especially for high ages. The proposed HBH care insurance is a feasible way to reduce the financial burden, enhance the care quality and family satisfaction of insureds. Meanwhile, insurance companies can participate in advocating a good medical policy to enhance the social image. In addition, the medical costs of NHI can reduce effectively.

Keywords: home-based hospice care, commercial insurance, Markov chain model, the day volume pays

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10366 Effect of the Aluminum Fraction “X” on the Laser Wavelengths in GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs Superlattices

Authors: F.Bendahma, S.Bentata

Abstract:

In this paper, we study numerically the eigenstates existing in a GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs superlattice with structural disorder in trimer height barrier (THB). Aluminium concentration x takes at random two different values, one of them appears only in triply and remains inferior to the second in the studied structure. In spite of the presence of disorder, the system exhibits two kinds of sets of propagating states lying below the barrier due to the characteristic structure of the superlattice. This result allows us to note the existence of a single laser emission in trimer and wavelengths are obtained in the mid-infrared.

Keywords: infrared (IR), laser emission, superlattice, trimer

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10365 The Work and Life Ethics at the Beginning of the 21st Century and the Vulnerability of Long-Term Unemployed over 45 Years Old in Spain since the Economic Crisis of 2008

Authors: Maria Del Mar Maira Vidal, Alvaro Briales

Abstract:

In this paper, we will conduct an analysis of the results of the I+D+i research project “New types of socio-existential vulnerability, support and care in Spain” (VULSOCU) (2016-20). This project had the objective to analyze the new types of vulnerability that are the result of the combination of several factors as the economic crisis, the unemployment, the transformations of the Welfare State, the individualization, etc. We have, therefore, analyzed the way that Spanish long-term unemployed over 45 years experience vulnerability and its consequences on their lives. We have focused on long-term unemployed over 45 that had previously developed stable career paths and have been looking for a job for two years or more. In order to carry out this analysis, we will try to break the dichotomy between the social and the individual, between the socio-historical and the subjectivity, to overcome some of the limits of the research on unemployment. The fieldwork consisted of more than ten focus groups and fifty in-depth interviews. The work and life ethics completely changed at the turn of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In the nineteenth century, companies had trouble maintaining their staff, but in the 21st century, unemployed workers feel that they are useless people. Workers value themselves if they have a job. This unveils that labor is a comprehensive social relationship in capitalist societies. In general, unemployed workers are not able to analyze their unemployment as a social problem. They analyze their unemployment as an individual problem. They blame themselves for their unemployment; instead of taking into account that there are millions of unemployed, they talk about themselves as if they were on their own. And the problems caused by unemployment are explained as psychological problems and are medicalized. Anyway, it is important to highlight that this is the result of an ideology and a social relationship that is part of our historical time.

Keywords: life ethics, work ethics, unemployment, unemployed over 45 years old

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10364 Modelling of Solidification in a Latent Thermal Energy Storage with a Finned Tube Bundle Heat Exchanger Unit

Authors: Remo Waser, Simon Maranda, Anastasia Stamatiou, Ludger J. Fischer, Joerg Worlitschek

Abstract:

In latent heat storage, a phase change material (PCM) is used to store thermal energy. The heat transfer rate during solidification is limited and considered as a key challenge in the development of latent heat storages. Thus, finned heat exchangers (HEX) are often utilized to increase the heat transfer rate of the storage system. In this study, a new modeling approach to calculating the heat transfer rate in latent thermal energy storages with complex HEX geometries is presented. This model allows for an optimization of the HEX design in terms of costs and thermal performance of the system. Modeling solidification processes requires the calculation of time-dependent heat conduction with moving boundaries. Commonly used computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods enable the analysis of the heat transfer in complex HEX geometries. If applied to the entire storage, the drawback of this approach is the high computational effort due to small time steps and fine computational grids required for accurate solutions. An alternative to describe the process of solidification is the so-called temperature-based approach. In order to minimize the computational effort, a quasi-stationary assumption can be applied. This approach provides highly accurate predictions for tube heat exchangers. However, it shows unsatisfactory results for more complex geometries such as finned tube heat exchangers. The presented simulation model uses a temporal and spatial discretization of heat exchanger tube. The spatial discretization is based on the smallest possible symmetric segment of the HEX. The heat flow in each segment is calculated using finite volume method. Since the heat transfer fluid temperature can be derived using energy conservation equations, the boundary conditions at the inner tube wall is dynamically updated for each time step and segment. The model allows a prediction of the thermal performance of latent thermal energy storage systems using complex HEX geometries with considerably low computational effort.

Keywords: modelling of solidification, finned tube heat exchanger, latent thermal energy storage

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10363 Development of a Secured Telemedical System Using Biometric Feature

Authors: O. Iyare, A. H. Afolayan, O. T. Oluwadare, B. K. Alese

Abstract:

Access to advanced medical services has been one of the medical challenges faced by our present society especially in distant geographical locations which may be inaccessible. Then the need for telemedicine arises through which live videos of a doctor can be streamed to a patient located anywhere in the world at any time. Patients’ medical records contain very sensitive information which should not be made accessible to unauthorized people in order to protect privacy, integrity and confidentiality. This research work focuses on a more robust security measure which is biometric (fingerprint) as a form of access control to data of patients by the medical specialist/practitioner.

Keywords: biometrics, telemedicine, privacy, patient information

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10362 Voters' Acceptance of Anti-guardians' Narratives: Electoral Politics in Establishmentarian Democracies

Authors: Rai Mansoor Imtiaz

Abstract:

Guardians in hybrid regimes fragment opposition parties and ban their political leaders, and disenfranchise their voters' political participation. When guardians in hybrid regimes are so powerful that they remain decisive on electoral politics of states, and have powers to ban political parties and their leadership, then "why do political parties backed by those powerful guardians lose elections" and "how do anti-establishment parties make electoral inroads at the local and national levels." These two questions are interrelated with the key research question of my research "why do people vote for political parties rejected by powerful guardians in establishmentarian democracies." Furthermore, this research question is important to be explored for two reasons. First, existing literature only reflects the electoral victories of opposition parties or defeats of military-sponsored parties (see Thailand and Turkey) but remains silent on political change that led the anti-military parties to win the elections. Second, why is it a case that people belonging to the countries where militaries remain popular among the public (see Turkey and Pakistan) have started putting their trust in anti-establishment politicians who criticise the military against their intervention in politics? For instance, in Pakistan, where commenting against the military is meant to comment against the state –– an anti-military narrative is getting popular support. The conceptual framework of hybrid states in this research relies on the concept of a 'reserved domain/tutelary body' (guardians of hybrid states). However, this research makes a case that hybrid states are not consolidated separate political entities but rather vacillated states that fluctuate between democratic and authoritarian practices. This paper, therefore, uses the term establishmentarian democracy as a subtype of the hybrid regime, which is more consolidated than a hybrid democracy.

Keywords: Guardians, Hybrid Regimes, Voters, Elections, Democracy, South Asia

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10361 The Establishment and Application of TRACE/FRAPTRAN Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

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10360 Parent-Child Communication: Community Based HIV/AIDS Response Strategy among Young Persons

Authors: Vicent Lwanga

Abstract:

Issue: Communication between parent and child is important and necessary. Poor parenting and lack of openness and communication between parents and their children contribute to the increasing rate of HIV infection among young persons between the ages of 10-25. The young person, when left on their own are at the risk of misinformation from peers and from other sources. Description: Parent-Child Communication (PCC) was designed as a key component of a community-based HIV and AIDS intervention focused on young persons by Elderly Widows Orphans Family Support Organisation. Findings from the preliminary community-level process indicated that the lack of parent-child communication militates against young persons adopting and maintaining healthier sexual behaviors. An integrated youth strategy consisting of youth Peer Education/Facilitation and PCC was used to bridge this gap. The process involved an interactive parent-child forum, which allowed parents and children to meet and have open and frank discussions on the needs of young persons and the role of parents. This forum addressed all emerging issues from all parties and created better cordiality amongst them. Lessons Learnt: When young people feel unconnected to their parents, family, or home, they may become involved in activities that put their health at risk. Equally, when parents affirm the value of their children through open interaction, children are more likely to develop positive and healthy attitudes about themselves. Creating the opportunity for this interactive forum is paramount in any intervention program focused on young persons. Conclusion: HIV and AIDS-related programmes, especially those focusing on youth, should have PCC as an integral, essential component. Parents should be vehicles for information dissemination and need to be equipped with the capacity and skills to take on the onerous task of talking sexual reproductive health and sexuality with their children and wards.

Keywords: aids, communication, HIV, youth

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10359 Recent Volatility in Islamic Banking Sector of Bangladesh: Nexus Between Economy, Religion and Politics

Authors: Abdul Kader

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This paper attempts to investigate several contributory factors to recent volatility in the Islamic Banking sector of Bangladesh. In particular, the study explores corporate governance, credit management, credit regulations, inept board of directors, using religious sentiment as a means to deceive general people, and the degree of political interference as potential contributory factors. To find the correlation among different variables, semi-structured questionnaires were distributed among the clients, bank managers, some Banking scholars and ex-members of the board of directors of three Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Later, ten interviews were collected from key informants to gain in-depth information about the present mismanagement of Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. After then, data were analyzed using statistical software and substantiated by secondary sources like newspapers, reports and investigative reports aired in screen media. The paper found a correlation between almost all contributory factors and recent unstable conditions in the Islamic banking sector. After performing regression analysis, this paper found a more significant relationship between some of the contributory factors with Banking volatility than others. For instance, credit management, inept board of directors, depriving customers of proving no profit in the name of business—no interest-- and political interference have a strong significant positive correlation with the present poor condition of Islamic Banking. This paper concludes that while internal management is important in recovering the losses, the government needs to ensure framing better policy for the Islamic Banking system, Central Bank needs to supervise and monitor all Islamic banks meticulously and loan receivers must go through the impartial evaluation and approved by the representatives of the Central Shariah Board. This paper also recommends that there is a need to strengthen the auditing system and improve regulatory oversight of the Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Policy recommendations that this paper put forward could provide an outline for dealing with the existing challenging condition of Islamic Banks and these could be applied to similar problems in other countries where the Islamic Banking model exists.

Keywords: Islamic bank, volatility in banking sector, shariah law, credit management, political interference

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10358 Influence of Strike-Slip Faulting in the Tectonic Evolution of North-Eastern Tunisia

Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Ali Kadri, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The major contractional events characterized by strike-slip faulting, folding, and thrusting occurred in the Eocene, Late Miocene, and Quaternary along with the NE Tunisian domain between Bou Kornine-Ressas- Msella and Cap Bon Peninsula. During the Plio-Quaternary, the Grombalia and Mornag grabens show a maximum of collapse in parallelism with the NNW-SSE SHmax direction and developed as 3rd order extensive regions within a regional compressional regime. Using available tectonic and geophysical data supplemented by new fault-kinematic observations, we show that Cenozoic deformations are dominated by first order N-S faults reactivation, this sinistral wrench system is responsible for the formation of strike-slip duplexes, thrusts, folds, and grabens. Based on our new structural interpretation, the major faults of N-S Axis, Bou Kornine-Ressas-Messella (MRB), and Hammamet-Korbous (HK) form an N-S first order restraining stepover within a left-lateral strike-slip duplex. The N-S master MRB fault is dominated by contractional imbricate fans, while the parallel HK fault is characterized by a trailing of extensional imbricate fans. The Eocene and Miocene compression phases in the study area caused sinistral strike-slip reactivation of pre-existing N-S faults, reverse reactivation of NE-SW trending faults, and normal-oblique reactivation of NW-SE faults, creating a NE-SW to N-S trending system of east-verging folds and overlaps. Seismic tomography images reveal a key role for the lithospheric subvertical tear or STEP fault (Slab Transfer Edge Propagator) evidenced below this region on the development of the MRB and the HK relay zone. The presence of extensive syntectonic Pliocene sequences above this crustal scale fault may be the result of a recent lithospheric vertical motion of this STEP fault due to the rollback and lateral migration of the Calabrian slab eastward.

Keywords: Tunisia, strike-slip fault, contractional duplex, tectonic stress, restraining stepover, STEP fault

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10357 Identifying the Challenges of Subcontractors Management in Building Area Projects and Providing Solutions (Supply Chain Management Approach)

Authors: Hamideh Sadat Zekri, Seyed Mojtaba Hosseinalipour, Mohammadreza Hafezi

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Nowadays, an organization cannot usually overcome all tasks singly due to the increasing complexity and vast expanse of projects, increment in uncertainty of activities, fast advances in technology, advent and influence of various factors in decision-making and implication of projects, and competitive atmosphere of different affairs. Thus, firms proceed to outsource the tasks to subcontractors. Nevertheless, large Iranian contracting companies suffer from extra consumed costs and time owing to conflicts between the activities of suppliers and subcontractors. The paucity of coordination in planning and execution, scarcity of coordination among suppliers, subcontractors, and the main contractor during the implementation of construction activities and also the lack of proper management of the aforesaid situation result in the growth of contradictions, number of claims, and legal issues in a project and consequently impose enormous expenses on those companies. Regarding the prosperity of supply chain management in other industries, its importance is increasingly getting appreciated in the field of construction. The ultimate aim of supply chain management is an effective delivery of the best value for customers, which is achievable by encouraging the members to interact and collaborate. In the present research, there was an effort to obtain a set of relevant challenges in the managing of subcontractors by identifying the main contractors and subcontractors and their role in the execution of projects and the supply chain management in the construction industry. Then, some of those challenges were selected in accordance with the views of industry professionals and academic experts. In the next step, a questionnaire was prepared and completed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the challenges were prioritized. When it comes to subcontractors, the findings of the research demonstrate that difficulties in timely payments, alterations in approved drawings and the lack of rectification of job after completion by the subcontractor, paucity of a predetermined and legal process for qualifications of subcontractors, neglecting the supply chain processes in material procurement from producers, and delays in delivery of works by a subcontractor are the most significant problems. Finally, some solutions for encountering, eradicating, or reducing of mentioned problems are presented in accordance with previous studies and a survey from specialists.

Keywords: main contractors, subcontractors, supply chain management, construction supply chain, analytic hierarchy process, solution

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10356 Digitalisation of Onboarding: A Case Study to Investigate the Impact of Virtual Reality Technology on Employees Social Interactions and Information Seeking During Job-Onboarding

Authors: Ewenam Gbormittah

Abstract:

Because of the effects of the pandemic, companies are focusing on the future of work arrangements for their employees. This includes adapting to a remote or hybrid working model. It is important that employers provide those working remotely or in a hybrid mode a rewarding onboarding experience and opportunities for interaction. Although, Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) have transformed the ways organisations manage employees over the years, there is still a need for a platform where organisations can adjust their onboarding to suit the social and interactive aspects of their employees, to facilitate successful integration. This study aimed to explore this matter by investigating whether Virtual Reality (VR) technology contributes to new employees integration into the organisation during their job-onboarding (JOB) process. The research questions are as follows: (1) To what extent does VR have an impact on employees successful integration into the organisation, and (2) How does VR help elements of new employees Psychological Contract (PC) during the course of interactions. An exploratory case study approach, which consisted of a semi-structured interview was conducted on 20 employees, split from two different case organisations. The results of the data were analysed according to each case, and then a cross-case comparison was provided. The results have generated 8 themes, presenting in excess of 7 sub-themes for CS1 and presented 7 themes, in excess of 7 sub-themes for CS2. The cross-case analysis has revealed that VR does have the potential to support employees integration into the organisation. However, the effects were shown to be stronger for employees in CS2, compared to employees in CS1. The results highlight practical implications for onboarding psychology and strategic talent solutions within recruitment. Such strategy this research particularly outlines, involves providing insights on how to manage the PC of employees from the recruitment stage to creating successful employment relationships.

Keywords: job-onboarding, psychological contract, virtual reality, case study one, case study two

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10355 Estimation of Soil Erosion Potential in Herat Province, Afghanistan

Authors: M. E. Razipoor, T. Masunaga, K. Sato, M. S. Saboory

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Estimation of soil erosion is economically and environmentally important in Herat, Afghanistan. Degradation of soil has negative impact (decreased soil fertility, destroyed soil structure, and consequently soil sealing and crusting) on life of Herat residents. Water and wind are the main erosive factors causing soil erosion in Herat. Furthermore, scarce vegetation cover, exacerbated by socioeconomic constraint, and steep slopes accelerate soil erosion. To sustain soil productivity and reduce soil erosion impact on human life, due to sustaining agricultural production and auditing the environment, it is needed to quantify the magnitude and extent of soil erosion in a spatial domain. Thus, this study aims to estimate soil loss potential and its spatial distribution in Herat, Afghanistan by applying RUSLE in GIS environment. The rainfall erosivity factor ranged between values of 125 and 612 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1). Soil erodibility factor varied from 0.036 to 0.073 (Mg h MJ-1 mm-1). Slope length and steepness factor (LS) values were between 0.03 and 31.4. The vegetation cover factor (C), derived from NDVI analysis of Landsat-8 OLI scenes, resulting in range of 0.03 to 1. Support practice factor (P) were assigned to a value of 1, since there is not significant mitigation practices in the study area. Soil erosion potential map was the product of these factors. Mean soil erosion rate of Herat Province was 29 Mg ha-1 year-1 that ranged from 0.024 Mg ha-1 year-1 in flat areas with dense vegetation cover to 778 Mg ha-1 year-1 in sharp slopes with high rainfall but least vegetation cover. Based on land cover map of Afghanistan, areas with soil loss rate higher than soil loss tolerance (8 Mg ha-1 year-1) occupies 98% of Forests, 81% rangelands, 64% barren lands, 60% rainfed lands, 28% urban area and 18% irrigated Lands.

Keywords: Afghanistan, erosion, GIS, Herat, RUSLE

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10354 Developing a Maturity Model of Digital Twin Application for Infrastructure Asset Management

Authors: Qingqing Feng, S. Thomas Ng, Frank J. Xu, Jiduo Xing

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Faced with unprecedented challenges including aging assets, lack of maintenance budget, overtaxed and inefficient usage, and outcry for better service quality from the society, today’s infrastructure systems has become the main focus of many metropolises to pursue sustainable urban development and improve resilience. Digital twin, being one of the most innovative enabling technologies nowadays, may open up new ways for tackling various infrastructure asset management (IAM) problems. Digital twin application for IAM, as its name indicated, represents an evolving digital model of intended infrastructure that possesses functions including real-time monitoring; what-if events simulation; and scheduling, maintenance, and management optimization based on technologies like IoT, big data and AI. Up to now, there are already vast quantities of global initiatives of digital twin applications like 'Virtual Singapore' and 'Digital Built Britain'. With digital twin technology permeating the IAM field progressively, it is necessary to consider the maturity of the application and how those institutional or industrial digital twin application processes will evolve in future. In order to deal with the gap of lacking such kind of benchmark, a draft maturity model is developed for digital twin application in the IAM field. Firstly, an overview of current smart cities maturity models is given, based on which the draft Maturity Model of Digital Twin Application for Infrastructure Asset Management (MM-DTIAM) is developed for multi-stakeholders to evaluate and derive informed decision. The process of development follows a systematic approach with four major procedures, namely scoping, designing, populating and testing. Through in-depth literature review, interview and focus group meeting, the key domain areas are populated, defined and iteratively tuned. Finally, the case study of several digital twin projects is conducted for self-verification. The findings of the research reveal that: (i) the developed maturity model outlines five maturing levels leading to an optimised digital twin application from the aspects of strategic intent, data, technology, governance, and stakeholders’ engagement; (ii) based on the case study, levels 1 to 3 are already partially implemented in some initiatives while level 4 is on the way; and (iii) more practices are still needed to refine the draft to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in key domain areas.

Keywords: digital twin, infrastructure asset management, maturity model, smart city

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10353 Combustion Variability and Uniqueness in Cylinders of a Radial Aircraft Piston Engine

Authors: Michal Geca, Grzegorz Baranski, Ksenia Siadkowska

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The work is a part of the project which aims at developing innovative power and control systems for the high power aircraft piston engine ASz62IR. Developed electronically controlled ignition system will reduce emissions of toxic compounds as a result of lowered fuel consumption, optimized combustion and engine capability of efficient combustion of ecological fuels. The tested unit is an air-cooled four-stroke gasoline engine of 9 cylinders in a radial setup, mechanically charged by a radial compressor powered by the engine crankshaft. The total engine cubic capac-ity is 29.87 dm3, and the compression ratio is 6.4:1. The maximum take-off power is 1000 HP at 2200 rpm. The maximum fuel consumption is 280 kg/h. Engine powers aircrafts: An-2, M-18 „Dromader”, DHC-3 „OTTER”, DC-3 „Dakota”, GAF-125 „HAWK” i Y5. The main problems of the engine includes the imbalanced work of cylinders. The non-uniformity value in each cylinder results in non-uniformity of their work. In radial engine cylinders arrangement causes that the mixture movement that takes place in accordance (lower cylinder) or the opposite (upper cylinders) to the direction of gravity. Preliminary tests confirmed the presence of uneven workflow of individual cylinders. The phenomenon is most intense at low speed. The non-uniformity is visible on the waveform of cylinder pressure. Therefore two studies were conducted to determine the impact of this phenomenon on the engine performance: simulation and real tests. Simplified simulation was conducted on the element of the intake system coated with fuel film. The study shows that there is an effect of gravity on the movement of the fuel film inside the radial engine intake channels. Both in the lower and the upper inlet channels the film flows downwards. It follows from the fact that gravity assists the movement of the film in the lower cylinder channels and prevents the movement in the upper cylinder channels. Real tests on aircraft engine ASz62IR was conducted in transients condition (rapid change of the excess air in each cylinder were performed. Calculations were conducted for mass of fuel reaching the cylinders theoretically and really and on this basis, the factors of fuel evaporation “x” were determined. Therefore a simplified model of the fuel supply to cylinder was adopted. Model includes time constant of the fuel film τ, the number of engine transport cycles of non-evaporating fuel along the intake pipe γ and time between next cycles Δt. The calculation results of identification of the model parameters are presented in the form of radar graphs. The figures shows the averages declines and increases of the injection time and the average values for both types of stroke. These studies shown, that the change of the position of the cylinder will cause changes in the formation of fuel-air mixture and thus changes in the combustion process. Based on the results of the work of simulation and experiments was possible to develop individual algorithms for ignition control. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: radial engine, ignition system, non-uniformity, combustion process

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10352 Transformative Measures in Chemical and Petrochemical Industry Through Agile Principles and Industry 4.0 Technologies

Authors: Bahman Ghorashi

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The immense awareness of the global climate change has compelled traditional fossil fuel companies to develop strategies to reduce their carbon footprint and simultaneously consider the production of various sources of clean energy in order to mitigate the environmental impact of their operations. Similarly, supply chain issues, the scarcity of certain raw materials, energy costs as well as market needs, and changing consumer expectations have forced the traditional chemical industry to reexamine their time-honored modes of operation. This study examines how such transformative change might occur through the applications of agile principles as well as industry 4.0 technologies. Clearly, such a transformation is complex, costly, and requires a total commitment on the part of the top leadership and the entire management structure. Factors that need to be considered include organizational speed of change, a restructuring that would lend itself toward collaboration and the selling of solutions to customers’ problems, rather than just products, integrating ‘along’ as well as ‘across’ value chains, mastering change and uncertainty as well as a recognition of the importance of concept-to-cash time, i.e., the velocity of introducing new products to market, and the leveraging of people and information. At the same time, parallel to implementing such major shifts in the ethos, and the fabric of the organization, the change leaders should remain mindful of the companies’ DNA while incorporating the necessary DNA defying shifts. Furthermore, such strategic maneuvers should inevitably incorporate the managing of the upstream and downstream operations, harnessing future opportunities, preparing and training the workforce, implementing faster decision making and quick adaptation to change, managing accelerated response times, as well as forming autonomous and cross-functional teams. Moreover, the leaders should establish the balance between high-value solutions versus high-margin products, fully implement digitization of operations and, when appropriate, incorporate the latest relevant technologies, such as: AI, IIoT, ML, and immersive technologies. This study presents a summary of the agile principles and the relevant technologies and draws lessons from some of the best practices that are already implemented within the chemical industry in order to establish a roadmap to agility. Finally, the critical role of educational institutions in preparing the future workforce for Industry 4.0 is addressed.

Keywords: agile principles, immersive technologies, industry 4.0, workforce preparation

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10351 Phytochemical Screening, Antibacterial Activity of Methanolic Extract of Syzygium aromaticum (Clove Buds) Activity on Oral Pathogens

Authors: Bello Aishatu, Saleh Hassan, Maianguwa Abdulrashid Dauda, Hammari Abubakar Muhammad, Shu’aibu Isa

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This study investigates the phytochemical constituents and antibacterial activity of methanolic extracts from Syzygium aromaticum (clove buds) against common oral pathogens. The extraction process was performed using methanol, followed by qualitative phytochemical screening to identify bioactive compounds such as alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponin, glycosides, steroids, and anthraquinones. The antibacterial efficacy was evaluated using the agar well diffusion method against several oral pathogens, including Staphylococcus epidermidis, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Enterococcus faecalis. Results indicated that the methanolic extract exhibited significant antibacterial activity, with inhibition zones correlating with the concentration of the extract. The highest inhibition was observed on S. epidermis (25 mm), E. faecalis (22.5 mm), S. aureus (21.5 mm), S. pneumoniae (19 mm) and S. mutans (17 mm) at the highest concentration (500µg/ml). While the lowest inhibition was observed at the lowest concentration (62.5 µg/ml), on S. mutans (7 mm), S. aureus (13.5 mm), S. pneumoniae (14 mm), E. faecalis (14 mm) and S. epidermis (16 mm). The positive control (Ofloxacin)-used during the experiment-shows lesser activity on some tested oral pathogen (S. epidermis and E. faecalis) as compared to that the extract and thus, the extract may serve as an alternative source of treatment of infections caused by Staphylococcus epidermidis and Enterococcus faecalis. Phytochemical analysis revealed a rich profile, suggesting a potential for clove extracts as natural antimicrobial agents in dental care. These findings support the therapeutic use of Syzygium aromaticum in managing oral infections and highlight its importance in phytomedicine.

Keywords: phytochemical, antibacterial, mentholic, clove buds

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10350 Optical Fiber Data Throughput in a Quantum Communication System

Authors: Arash Kosari, Ali Araghi

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A mathematical model for an optical-fiber communication channel is developed which results in an expression that calculates the throughput and loss of the corresponding link. The data are assumed to be transmitted by using of separate photons with different polarizations. The derived model also shows the dependency of data throughput with length of the channel and depolarization factor. It is observed that absorption of photons affects the throughput in a more intensive way in comparison with that of depolarization. Apart from that, the probability of depolarization and the absorption of radiated photons are obtained.

Keywords: absorption, data throughput, depolarization, optical fiber

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10349 Numerical Investigation of Indoor Environmental Quality in a Room Heated with Impinging Jet Ventilation

Authors: Mathias Cehlin, Arman Ameen, Ulf Larsson, Taghi Karimipanah

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The indoor environmental quality (IEQ) is increasingly recognized as a significant factor influencing the overall level of building occupants’ health, comfort and productivity. An air-conditioning and ventilation system is normally used to create and maintain good thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Providing occupant thermal comfort and well-being with minimized use of energy is the main purpose of heating, ventilating and air conditioning system. Among different types of ventilation systems, the most widely known and used ventilation systems are mixing ventilation (MV) and displacement ventilation (DV). Impinging jet ventilation (IJV) is a promising ventilation strategy developed in the beginning of 2000s. IJV has the advantage of supplying air downwards close to the floor with high momentum and thereby delivering fresh air further out in the room compare to DV. Operating in cooling mode, IJV systems can have higher ventilation effectiveness and heat removal effectiveness compared to MV, and therefore a higher energy efficiency. However, how is the performance of IJV when operating in heating mode? This paper presents the function of IJV in a typical office room for winter conditions (heating mode). In this paper, a validated CFD model, which uses the v2-f model is used for the prediction of air flow pattern, thermal comfort and air change effectiveness. The office room under consideration has the dimensions 4.2×3.6×2.5m, which can be designed like a single-person or two-person office. A number of important factors influencing in the room with IJV are studied. The considered parameters are: heating demand, number of occupants and supplied air conditions. A total of 6 simulation cases are carried out to investigate the effects of the considered parameters. Heat load in the room is contributed by occupants, computer and lighting. The model consists of one external wall including a window. The interaction effects of heat sources, supply air flow and down draught from the window result in a complex flow phenomenon. Preliminary results indicate that IJV can be used for heating of a typical office room. The IEQ seems to be suitable in the occupied region for the studied cases.

Keywords: computation fluid dynamics, impinging jet ventilation, indoor environmental quality, ventilation strategy

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10348 The Various Bodies of a Person and How to Cleanse Them Spiritually

Authors: J. B. Athavale, Sean Clarke

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Introduction According to ancient Indian scriptures, a person’s consciousness includes the physical body, the vital energy sheath (Pranshakti), the mental body (which includes one’s feelings and emotions), the intellectual body (which refers to one’s decision-making ability), and the Soul (which is the God Principle that resides in every person). Apart from the physical body, all the other aspects are subtle in nature. In today’s world, much attention is given to one’s physical appearance and intellectual prowess. While there have been improvements in the attention given to mental health, its complete nature is not understood, and in many cultures, mental ill health is considered taboo and looked down upon. Regarding the spiritual well-being of a person, our spiritual research has shown that people’s understanding and efforts are mostly lacking and superficial as they do not conform to Universal Spiritual Principles. Also, true well-being occurs only when all the bodies are healthy. Methodology The spiritual research team at the University has found that the spiritual aspect of a person’s life affects all the physical, psychological, and intellectual bodies of a person resulting in ill health. Cleansing these bodies at a spiritual level is essential to regain well-being. Using Aura and Energy Scanners and advanced sixth sense, we studied what causes spiritual impurity in various bodies and how to cleanse them. We measured the spiritual vibrations of a person and how they get affected due to various daily activities. For example, we studied the difference in a person’s aura before and after applying chemical-based makeup vs. natural makeup. Key Findings From the various spiritual research experiments we conducted, we found that: • All our actions and our thoughts affect our various bodies and have the potential to change the aura for the better or worse. • When there is an increase in negative vibrations around a person, negative energies from the subtle dimension are more likely to affect a person. • As the person’s spiritual level increases, the positivity in their aura also increases, and it is much easier to cleanse the various bodies spiritually. • Spiritual practice is like a general spiritual tonic that increases the positivity in one’s aura. The benefits of this are that it leads to mental stability and intellectual clarity. • Spiritual healing remedies augment any spiritual practice to obtain a faster healing effect. Conclusion Taking care of oneself spiritually has a positive halo effect on all one’s bodies. Spiritual cleansing is required regularly if one wants to attain a state of well-being. Spiritual practice and spiritual healing lead to spiritual growth, stability of mind, and less stress and reactions. Spiritually purer people affect the environment positively, and there is less unrest and more harmony between man and nature.

Keywords: body, spirituality, cleansing, consciousness

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10347 Communication of Expected Survival Time to Cancer Patients: How It Is Done and How It Should Be Done

Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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10346 Demand Forecasting to Reduce Dead Stock and Loss Sales: A Case Study of the Wholesale Electric Equipment and Part Company

Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

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The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

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