Search results for: support function

Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula

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The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.

Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting

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Authors: Mannan Mridha, Mohammad S. Islam

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Innovative medical technologies offer more effective medical care, with less risk to patient and healthcare personnel. Medical technology and devices when properly used provide better data, precise monitoring and less invasive treatments and can be more targeted and often less costly. The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) equipped with patient monitoring, respiratory and cardiac support, pain management, emergency resuscitation and life support devices is particularly prone to medical errors for various reasons. Many people in the developing countries now wonder whether their visit to hospital might harm rather than help them. This is because; clinicians in the developing countries are required to maintain an increasing workload with limited resources and absence of well-functioning safety system. A team of experts from the medical, biomedical and clinical engineering in Sweden and Bangladesh have worked together to study the incidents, adverse events at the ICU in Bangladesh. The study included both public and private hospitals to provide a better understanding for physical structure, organization and practice in operating processes of care, and the occurrence of adverse outcomes the errors, risks and accidents related to medical devices at the ICU, and to develop a ICT based support system in order to reduce hazards and errors and thus improve the quality of performance, care and cost effectiveness at the ICU. Concrete recommendations and guidelines have been made for preparing appropriate ICT related tools and methods for improving the routine for use of medical devices, reporting and analyzing of the incidents at the ICU in order to reduce the number of undetected and unsolved incidents and thus improve the patient safety.

Keywords: intensive care units, medical errors, medical devices, patient care and safety

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Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li

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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.

Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM

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Authors: Meenu S. Babu, K. Jayasankara Reddy

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Depression is a serious mental health concern that leads to significant distress and dysfunction in an individual. Due to the high physical, psychological, social, and economic burden it causes, it is important to study various bio-psycho-social factors that influence the onset, course, duration, intensity of depressive symptoms. The study aims to explore relationship between autobiographical memory (AM) functions, perceived control over stressful events and depressive symptoms. AM functions and perceived control were both found to be protective factors for individuals against depression and were both modifiable to predict better behavioral and affective outcomes. An extensive review of literatur, with a systematic search on Google Scholar, JSTOR, Science Direct and Springer Journals database, was conducted for the purpose of this review paper. These were used for all the aforementioned databases. The time frame used for the search was 2010-2021. An additional search was conducted with no time bar to map the development of the theoretical concepts. The relevant studies with quantitative, qualitative, experimental, and quasi- experimental research designs were included for the review. Studies including a sample with a DSM- 5 or ICD-10 diagnosis of depressive disorders were excluded from the study to focus on the behavioral patterns in a non-clinical population. The synthesis of the findings that were obtained from the review indicates there is a significant relationship between cognitive variables of AM functions and perceived control and depressive symptoms. AM functions were found to be have significant effects on once sense of self, interpersonal relationships, decision making, self- continuity and were related to better emotion regulation and lower depressive symptoms. Not all the components of AM function were equally significant in their relationships with various depressive symptoms. While self and directive functions were more related to emotion regulation, anhedonia, motivation and hence mood and affect, the social function was related to perceived social support and social engagement. Perceived control was found to be another protective cognitive factor that provides individuals a sense of agency and control over one’s life outcomes which was found to be low in individuals with depression. This was also associated to the locus of control, competency beliefs, contingency beliefs and subjective well being in individuals and acted as protective factors against depressive symptoms. AM and perceived control over stressful events serve adaptive functions, hence it is imperative to study these variables more extensively. They can be imperative in planning and implementing therapeutic interventions to foster these cognitive protective factors to mitigate or alleviate depressive symptoms. Exploring AM as a determining factor in depressive symptoms along with perceived control over stress creates a bridge between biological and cognitive factors underlying depression and increases the scope of developing a more eclectic and effective treatment plan for individuals. As culture plays a crucial role in AM functions as well as certain aspects of control such as locus of control, it is necessary to study these variables keeping in mind the cultural context to tailor culture/community specific interventions for depression.

Keywords: autobiographical memories, autobiographical memory functions, perceived control, depressive symptoms, depression, young adults

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Authors: Marta Czechowska-Bieluga

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Social work education in Poland focuses mostly on developing competencies that address the needs of individuals and families affected by a variety of life's problems. As a result of the ageing of the Polish population, much attention is equally devoted to adults, including the elderly. However, social work with children and young people is the area of education which should be given more consideration. Social work students are mostly trained to cater to the needs of families and the competencies aimed to respond to the needs of children and young people do not receive enough attention and are only offered as elective classes. This paper strives to review the social work programmes offered by the selected higher education institutions in Poland in terms of social work training aimed at helping children and young people to address their life problems. The analysis conducted in this study indicates that university education for social work focuses on training professionals who will provide assistance only to adults. Due to changes in the social and political situation, including, in particular, changes in social policy implemented for the needy, it is necessary to extend this area of education to include the specificity of the support for children and young people; especially, in the light of the appearance of new support professions within the area of social work. For example, family assistants, whose task is to support parents in performing their roles as guardians and educators, also assist children. Therefore, it becomes necessary to equip social work professionals with competencies which include issues related to the quality of life of underage people living in families. Social work curricula should be extended to include the issues of child and young person development and the patterns governing this phase of life.

Keywords: social work education, social work programmes, social worker, university

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Authors: A. Biran, P. Sobhe Bidari, A. Almazroe, V. Lakshminarayanan, K. Raahemifar

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Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a severe retinal disease which is caused by diabetes mellitus. It leads to blindness when it progress to proliferative level. Early indications of DR are the appearance of microaneurysms, hemorrhages and hard exudates. In this paper, an automatic algorithm for detection of DR has been proposed. The algorithm is based on combination of several image processing techniques including Circular Hough Transform (CHT), Contrast Limited Adaptive Histogram Equalization (CLAHE), Gabor filter and thresholding. Also, Support Vector Machine (SVM) Classifier is used to classify retinal images to normal or abnormal cases including non-proliferative or proliferative DR. The proposed method has been tested on images selected from Structured Analysis of the Retinal (STARE) database using MATLAB code. The method is perfectly able to detect DR. The sensitivity specificity and accuracy of this approach are 90%, 87.5%, and 91.4% respectively.

Keywords: diabetic retinopathy, fundus images, STARE, Gabor filter, support vector machine

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Authors: Billel Kenidra, Mohamed Benmohammed

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Data mining technique used in the field of clustering is a subject of active research and assists in biological pattern recognition and extraction of new knowledge from raw data. Clustering means the act of partitioning an unlabeled dataset into groups of similar objects. Each group, called a cluster, consists of objects that are similar between themselves and dissimilar to objects of other groups. Several clustering methods are based on partitional clustering. This category attempts to directly decompose the dataset into a set of disjoint clusters leading to an integer number of clusters that optimizes a given criterion function. The criterion function may emphasize a local or a global structure of the data, and its optimization is an iterative relocation procedure. The K-Means algorithm is one of the most widely used partitional clustering techniques. Since K-Means is extremely sensitive to the initial choice of centers and a poor choice of centers may lead to a local optimum that is quite inferior to the global optimum, we propose a strategy to initiate K-Means centers. The improved K-Means algorithm is compared with the original K-Means, and the results prove how the efficiency has been significantly improved.

Keywords: microarray data mining, biological pattern recognition, partitional clustering, k-means algorithm, centroid initialization

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Authors: T. Heiman, D. Olenik-Shemesh

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Over the past decade, with the rapid growth of electronic communication, the internet and, in particular, social networking has become an inseparable part of people's daily lives. Along with its benefits, a new type of online aggression has emerged, defined as cyber bullying, a form of interpersonal aggressive behavior that takes place through electronic means. Cyber-bullying is characterized by repetitive behavior over time of maladaptive authority and power usage using computers and cell phones via sending insulting messages and hurtful pictures. Preliminary findings suggest that the prevalence of involvement in cyber-bullying among higher education students varies between 10 and 35%. As to date, universities are facing an uphill effort in trying to restrain online misbehavior. As no studies examined the relationships between cyber-bullying involvement with personal aspects, and its impacts on academic achievement and work functioning, this present study examined the nature of cyber-bullying involvement among 1,052 undergraduate students (mean age = 27.25, S.D = 4.81; 66.2% female), coping with, as well as the effects of social support, perceived self-efficacy, well-being, and body-perception, in relation to cyber-victimization. We assume that students in higher education are a vulnerable population and at high risk of being cyber-victims. We hypothesize that social support might serve as a protective factor and will moderate the relationships between the socio-emotional variables and the occurrence of cyber- victimization. The findings of this study will present the relationships between cyber-victimization and the social-emotional aspects, which constitute risk and protective factors. After receiving approval from the Ethics Committee of the University, a Google Drive questionnaire was sent to a random sample of students, studying in the various University study centers. Students' participation was voluntary, and they completed the five questionnaires anonymously: Cyber-bullying, perceived self-efficacy, subjective well-being, social support and body perception. Results revealed that 11.6% of the students reported being cyber-victims during last year. Examining the emotional and behavioral reactions to cyber-victimization revealed that female emotional and behavioral reactions were significantly greater than the male reactions (p < .001). Moreover, females reported on a significant higher social support compared to men; male reported significantly on a lower social capability than female; and men's body perception was significantly more positive than women's scores. No gender differences were observed for subjective well-being scale. Significant positive correlations were found between cyber-victimization and fewer friends, lower grades, and work ineffectiveness (r = 0.37- .40, p < 0 .001). The results of the Hierarchical regression indicated significantly that cyber-victimization can be predicted by lower social support, lower body perception, and gender (female), that explained 5.6% of the variance (R2 = 0.056, F(5,1047) = 12.47, p < 0.001). The findings deepen our understanding of the students' involvement in cyber-bullying, and present the relationships of the social-emotional and academic aspects on cyber-victim students. In view of our findings, higher education policy could help facilitate coping with cyber-bullying incidents, and student support units could develop intervention programs aimed at reducing cyber-bullying and its impacts.

Keywords: academic and personal factors, cyber-victimization, social support, higher education

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Authors: Yuanyuan Fu

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Background and Purpose: Along with the change of society and economy, the traditional home function of old people has gradually weakened in the contemporary China. Acknowledging these situations, to better meet old people’s needs on formal services and improve the quality of later life, this study seeks to identify patterns of intended service use among frail old people living in the communities and examined determinants that explain heterogeneous variations in old people’s intended service use patterns. Additionally, this study also tested the relationship between culture value and intended service use patterns and the mediating role of enabling factors in terms of culture value and intended service use patterns. Methods：Participants were recruited from Haidian District, Beijing, China in 2015. The multi-stage sampling method was adopted to select sub-districts, communities and old people aged 70 years old or older. After screening, 577 old people with limitations in daily life, were successfully interviewed. After data cleaning, 550 samples were included for data analysis. This study establishes a conceptual framework based on the Anderson Model (including predisposing factors, enabling factors and need factors), and further developed it by adding culture value factors (including attitudes towards filial piety and attitudes towards social face). Using a latent class analysis (LCA), this study classifies overall patterns of old people’s formal service utilization. Fourteen types of formal services were taken into account, including housework, voluntary support, transportation, home-delivered meals, and home-delivery medical care, elderly’s canteen and day-care center/respite care and so on. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the direct effect of culture value on service use pattern, and the mediating effect of the enabling factors. Results: The LCA classified a hierarchical structure of service use patterns: multiple intended service use (N=69, 23%), selective intended service use (N=129, 23%), and light intended service use (N=352, 64%). Through SEM, after controlling predisposing factors and need factors, the results showed the significant direct effect of culture value on older people’s intended service use patterns. Enabling factors had a partial mediation effect on the relationship between culture value and the patterns. Conclusions and Implications: Differentiation of formal services may be important for meeting frail old people’s service needs and distributing program resources by identifying target populations for intervention, which may make reference to specific interventions to better support frail old people. Additionally, culture value had a unique direct effect on the intended service use patterns of frail old people in China, enriching our theoretical understanding of sources of culture value and their impacts. The findings also highlighted the mediation effects of enabling factors on the relationship between culture value factors and intended service use patterns. This study suggests that researchers and service providers should pay more attention to the important role of culture value factors in contributing to intended service use patterns and also be more sensitive to the mediating effect of enabling factors when discussing the relationship between culture value and the patterns.

Keywords: frail old people, intended service use pattern, culture value, enabling factors, contemporary China, latent class analysis

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Authors: Joanne DiFrancisco-Donoghue, Seth E. Jenny, Peter C. Douris, Sophia Ahmad, Kyle Yuen, Hillary Gan, Kenney Abraham, Amber Sousa

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Background: Guidelines for the maintenance of health of esports players and the cognitive changes that accompany competitive gaming are understudied. Executive functioning is an important cognitive skill for an esports player. The relationship between executive functions and physical exercise has been well established. However, the effects of prolonged sitting regardless of physical activity level have not been established. Prolonged uninterrupted sitting reduces cerebral blood flow. Reduced cerebral blood flow is associated with lower cognitive function and fatigue. This decrease in cerebral blood flow has been shown to be offset by frequent and short walking breaks. These short breaks can be as little as 2 minutes at the 30-minute mark and 6 minutes following 60 minutes of prolonged sitting. The rationale is the increase in blood flow and the positive effects this has on metabolic responses. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate executive function changes following 6-minute bouts of walking and complete rest mid-session, compared to no break, during prolonged gameplay in competitive first-person shooter (FPS) esports players. Methods: This study was conducted virtually due to the Covid-19 pandemic and was approved by the New York Institute of Technology IRB. Twelve competitive FPS participants signed written consent to participate in this randomized pilot study. All participants held a gold ranking or higher. Participants were asked to play for 2 hours on three separate days. Outcome measures to test executive function included the Color Stroop and the Tower of London tests which were administered online each day prior to gaming and at the completion of gaming. All participants completed the tests prior to testing for familiarization. One day of testing consisted of a 6-minute walk break after 60-75 minutes of play. The Rate of Perceived Exertion (RPE) was recorded. The participant continued to play for another 60-75 minutes and completed the tests again. Another day the participants repeated the same methods replacing the 6-minute walk with lying down and resting for 6 minutes. On the last day, the participant played continuously with no break for 2 hours and repeated the outcome tests pre and post-play. A Latin square was used to randomize the treatment order. Results: Using descriptive statistics, the largest change in mean reaction time incorrect congruent pre to post play was seen following the 6-minute walk (662.0 (609.6) ms pre to 602.8 (539.2) ms post), followed by the 6-minute rest group (681.7(618.1) ms pre to 666.3 (607.9) ms post), and with minimal change in the continuous group (594.0(534.1) ms pre to 589.6(552.9) ms post). The mean solution time was fastest in the resting condition (7774.6(6302.8)ms), followed by the walk condition (7929.4 (5992.8)ms), with the continuous condition being slowest (9337.3(7228.7)ms). the continuous group 9337.3(7228.7) ms; 7929.4 (5992.8 ) ms 774.6(6302.8) ms. Conclusion: Short walking breaks improve blood flow and reduce the risk of venous thromboembolism during prolonged sitting. This pilot study demonstrated that a low intensity 6 -minute walk break, following 60 minutes of play, may also improve executive function in FPS gamers.

Keywords: executive function, FPS, physical activity, prolonged sitting

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Authors: Sunantha Teyarachakul

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We consider the worker-learning Newsvendor Model, under the case of lost-sales for unmet demand, with the research objective of proposing the cost-minimization order policy and lot size, scheduled to arrive at the beginning of the selling-period. In general, the New Vendor Model is used to find the optimal order quantity for the perishable items such as fashionable products or those with seasonal demand or short-life cycles. Technically, it is used when the product demand is stochastic and available for the single selling-season, and when there is only a one time opportunity for the vendor to purchase, with possibly of long ordering lead-times. Our work differs from the classical Newsvendor Model in that we incorporate the human factor (specifically worker learning) and its influence over the costs of processing units into the model. We describe this by using the well-known Wright’s Learning Curve. Most of the assumptions of the classical New Vendor Model are still maintained in our work, such as the constant per-unit cost of leftover and shortage, the zero initial inventory, as well as the continuous time. Our problem is challenging in the way that the best order quantity in the classical model, which is balancing the over-stocking and under-stocking costs, is no longer optimal. Specifically, when adding the cost-saving from worker learning to such expected total cost, the convexity of the cost function will likely not be maintained. This has called for a new way in determining the optimal order policy. In response to such challenges, we found a number of characteristics related to the expected cost function and its derivatives, which we then used in formulating the optimal ordering policy. Examples of such characteristics are; the optimal order quantity exists and is unique if the demand follows a Uniform Distribution; if the demand follows the Beta Distribution with some specific properties of its parameters, the second derivative of the expected cost function has at most two roots; and there exists the specific level of lot size that satisfies the first order condition. Our research results could be helpful for analysis of supply chain coordination and of the periodic review system for similar problems.

Keywords: inventory management, Newsvendor model, order policy, worker learning

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Authors: Angga S. Fajar, Y. Takahashi, J. Kiyono, S. Sawada

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The structural system concept of RC pier accompanied with multi sliding friction damping mechanism was developed based on numerical analysis approach. However in the implementation, to make design for such kind of this structural system consumes a lot of effort in case high of complexity. During making design, the special behaviors of this structural system should be considered including flexible small deformation, sufficient elastic deformation capacity, sufficient lateral force resistance, and sufficient energy dissipation. The confinement distribution of friction devices has significant influence to its. Optimization and prediction with multi function regression of this structural system expected capable of providing easier and simpler design method. The confinement distribution of friction devices is optimized with SNOPT in Opensees, while some design variables of the structure are predicted using multi function regression of ANN. Based on the optimization and prediction this structural system is able to be designed easily and simply.

Keywords: RC Pier, multi sliding friction device, optimal design, flexible small deformation

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Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

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The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

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Authors: Nicolae Pascu

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Aside from being a fundamental tool in Complex analysis, Schwarz Lemma-which was finalized in its most complete form at the beginning of the last century-generated an important area of research in various fields of mathematics, which continues to advance even today. We present some properties of analytic functions in the half-plane which satisfy the conditions of the classical Schwarz Lemma (Carathéodory functions) and obtain a generalization of the well-known Aleksandrov-Sobolev Lemma for analytic functions in the half-plane (the correspondent of Schwarz-Pick Lemma from the unit disk). Using this Schwarz-type lemma, we obtain a characterization for the entire class of Carathéodory functions, which might be of independent interest. We prove two monotonicity properties for Carathéodory functions that do not depend upon their normalization at infinity (the hydrodynamic normalization). The method is based on conformal mapping arguments for analytic functions in the half-plane satisfying appropriate conditions, in the spirit of Schwarz lemma. According to the research findings in this paper, our main results give estimates for the modulus and the argument for the entire class of Carathéodory functions. As applications, we give several extensions of Julia-Wolf-Carathéodory Lemma in a half-strip and show that our results are sharp.

Keywords: schwarz lemma, Julia-wolf-caratéodory lemma, analytic function, normalization condition, caratéodory function

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Authors: Fatihin Khoirul, Muhammad Muqorrobin Ist

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Bojonegoro Regency is one of the districts that use the concept Agropolitan as the Territorial Development Policy. Three sub-district designated as Area Development District of Agropolitan are Kapas, Dander, and Kalitidu or commonly called KADEKA. Current policy has been shown results, but there was an inequality of results in some areas. One of them occurred in the Ngringinrejo village with the main commodities is Starfruit and Wedi village with the main commodities is Salak fruit. Therefore, a comparative study is used to search for causal factors of inequality result of the policy by using the 5 aspects compared, namely: (1) Management Development Agropolitan; (2) Physical Condition agropolitan Region; (3) Implementing Agency at the Village Level; (4) Village Government Support; and (5) Community support. Based on the discussion of qualitative analysis, it was found that five aspects have their respective roles in creating inequality of outcomes that occur in both villages. But beyond that, there are conditions where the two villages experienced the same condition that is when the initial implementation of the policy. The condition is referred to as 'the phenomenon of price trap.' The condition is caused by lower commodity prices, causing the village government's commitment in implementing policies too low, followed by public awareness in support of the policy is also low, so care for commodities is also low, and the quality is too low lead and eventually back causing low price. However, the difference is that the village Ngringinrejo able to get out of this condition with 'the new culture of administration' at the end of 2013. While the conditions in the village of Wedi compounded by not respected request assistance by the irrigation district.

Keywords: comparative policy analysis, qualitative comparative, inequallity, price trap, new culture of administration

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Yuko Hiramatsu, Fumihiro Sato, Atsushi Ito, Hiroyuki Hatano, Mie Sato, Yu Watanabe, Akira Sasaki

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This paper presents a mobile phone application developed for sightseeing in Nikko, one of the cultural world heritages in Japan, using the BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) beacon. Based on our pre-research, we decided to design our application for young people who walk around the area actively, but know little about the tradition and culture of Nikko. One solution is to construct many information boards to explain; however, it is difficult to construct new guide plates in cultural world heritage sites. The smartphone is a good solution to send such information to such visitors. This application was designed using a combination of the smartphone and beacons, set in the area, so that when a tourist passes near a beacon, the application displays information about the area including a map, historical or cultural information about the temples and shrines, and local shops nearby as well as a bus timetable. It is useful for foreigners, too. In addition, we developed quizzes relating to the culture and tradition of Nikko to provide information based on the Zeigarnik effect, a psychological effect. According to the results of our trials, tourists positively evaluated the basic information and young people who used the quiz function were able to learn the historical and cultural points. This application helped young visitors at Nikko to understand the cultural elements of the site. In addition, this application has a function to send notifications. This function is designed to provide information about the local community such as shops, local transportation companies and information office. The application hopes to also encourage people living in the area, and such cooperation from the local people will make this application vivid and inspire young visitors to feel that the cultural heritage site is still alive today. This is a gateway for young people to learn about a traditional place and understand the gravity of preserving such areas.

Keywords: BLE beacon, smartphone application, Zeigarnik effect, world heritage site, school trip

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Authors: Aymen Sassi

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The equipment of vehicles with wireless communication capabilities is expected to be the key to the evolution to next generation intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The IEEE community has been continuously working on the development of an efficient vehicular communication protocol for the enhancement of Wireless Access in Vehicular Environment (WAVE). Vehicular communication systems, called V2X, support vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communications. The efficiency of such communication systems depends on several factors, among which the surrounding environment and mobility are prominent. Accordingly, this study focuses on the evaluation of the real performance of vehicular communication with special focus on the effects of the real environment and mobility on V2X communication. It starts by identifying the real maximum range that such communication can support and then evaluates V2I and V2V performances. The Arada LocoMate OBU transmission system was used to test and evaluate the impact of the transmission range in V2X communication. The evaluation of V2I and V2V communication takes the real effects of low and high mobility on transmission into account.

Keywords: IEEE 802.11p, V2I, V2X, mobility, PLR, Arada LocoMate OBU, maximum range

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Authors: Hafid Smaili, Wilfred Rouwhorst, Paul Frost

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The trend of recent accident and incident cases worldwide show that the state-of-the-art automation and operations, for current and future demanding operational environments, does not provide the desired level of operational safety under crew peak workload conditions, specifically in complex situations such as loss-of-control in-flight (LOC-I). Today, the short term focus is on preparing crews to recognise and handle LOC-I situations through upset recovery training. This paper describes the cockpit integration aspects and piloted assessment of both a manually assisted and automatic upset detection and recovery system that has been developed and demonstrated within the European Advanced Cockpit for Reduction Of StreSs and workload (ACROSS) programme. The proposed system is a function that continuously monitors and intervenes when the aircraft enters an upset and provides either manually pilot-assisted guidance or takes over full control of the aircraft to recover from an upset. In order to mitigate the highly physical and psychological impact during aircraft upset events, the system provides new cockpit functionalities to support the pilot in recovering from any upset both manually assisted and automatically. A piloted simulator assessment was made in Oct-Nov 2015 using ten pilots in a representative civil large transport fly-by-wire aircraft in terms of the preference of the tested upset detection and recovery system configurations to reduce pilot workload, increase situational awareness and safe interaction with the manually assisted or automated modes. The piloted simulator evaluation of the upset detection and recovery system showed that the functionalities of the system are able to support pilots during an upset. The experiment showed that pilots are willing to rely on the guidance provided by the system during an upset. Thereby, it is important for pilots to see and understand what the aircraft is doing and trying to do especially in automatic modes. Comparing the manually assisted and the automatic recovery modes, the pilot’s opinion was that an automatic recovery reduces the workload so that they could perform a proper screening of the primary flight display. The results further show that the manually assisted recoveries, with recovery guidance cues on the cockpit primary flight display, reduced workload for severe upsets compared to today’s situation. The level of situation awareness was improved for automatic upset recoveries where the pilot could monitor what the system was trying to accomplish compared to automatic recovery modes without any guidance. An improvement in situation awareness was also noticeable with the manually assisted upset recovery functionalities as compared to the current non-assisted recovery procedures. This study shows that automatic upset detection and recovery functionalities are likely to positively impact the operational safety by means of reduced workload, improved situation awareness and crew stress reduction. It is thus believed that future developments for upset recovery guidance and loss-of-control prevention should focus on automatic recovery solutions.

Keywords: aircraft accidents, automatic flight control, loss-of-control, upset recovery

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Authors: Ngozi Claribelle Nwogu, Mohammed Nasir Kajama, Godson Osueke, Edward Gobina

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A unique sol–gel dip-coating process to form an asymmetric silica membrane with improved membrane performance and reproducibility has been reported. First, we deposited repeatedly a silica solution on top of a commercial alumina membrane support to improve its structural make up. The coated membrane is further processed under clean room conditions to avoid dust impurity and subsequent drying in an oven for high thermal, chemical and physical stability. The resulting asymmetric membrane exhibits a gradual change in the membrane layer thickness. Compared to a single-layer process using only the membrane support, the dual-layer process improves both flux and selectivity. For the scientifically significant difficulties of natural gas purification, collective CO2, CH4 and H2 gas fluxes and separation factors obtained gave reasonably excellent values. In addition, the membrane selectively separated hydrogen as demonstrated by a high concentration of hydrogen recovery.

Keywords: gas permeation, silica membrane, separation factor, membrane layer thickness

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Aayushi Patidar, Nishant Parihar

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One of the principal causes of failure in existing vehicle brokerage solutions is that they require the introduction of a single trusted third party to whom transport offers and requirements are sent, and which solves the scheduling problem. Advances in planning and scheduling could be utilized to address the scalability issues inherent here, but such refinements do not address the key need to decentralize decision-making. This is not to say that matchmaking of potential transport suppliers to consumers is not essential, but information from such a service should inform rather than determining the transport options for customers. The approach that is proposed, is the use of intelligent commuters that act within the system and to identify options open to users, weighing the evidence for desirability of each option given a model of the user’s priorities, and to drive dialogue among commuters in aiding users to solve their individual (or collective) transport goals. Existing research in commuter support for transport resource management has typically been focused on the provider. Our vision is to explore both the efficient use of limited transport resources and also to support the passengers in the transportation flexibility & integration among various modes in India.

Keywords: flexibility, integration, service design, technology

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Authors: Dereje Regasa

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The global food system is at a crossroads, which requires prompt action to minimize the effects of the crises. Agroecology is gaining prominence due to its contributions to sustainable food systems. To support efforts in mitigating the crises, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) established alternative approaches for sustainable agri-food systems. Agroecological elements and principles were developed to guide and support measures that countries need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs require the systemic integration of practices for a smart intensification or adaptation of traditional or industrial agriculture. As one of the countries working towards SDGs, the agricultural practices in Ethiopia need to be guided by these agroecological elements and principles. Aiming at the identification of challenging aspects of a sustainable agri-food system and the characterization of an enabling environment for agroecology, as well as exploring to what extent the existing policies and strategies support the agroecological transition process, five policy and strategy documents were reviewed. These documents are the Rural Development Policy and Strategy, the Environment Policy, the Biodiversity Policy, and the Soil Strategy of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Using the Agroecology Criteria Tool (ACT), the contents were reviewed, focusing on agroecological requirements and the inclusion of sustainable practices. ACT is designed to support a self-assessment of elements supporting agroecology. For each element, binary values were assigned based on the inclusion of the minimum requirements index and then validated through discussion with the document owners. The results showed that the documents were well below the requirements for an agroecological transition of the agri-food system. The Rural Development Policy and Strategy only suffice to 83% in Human and Social Value. It does not support the transition concerning the other elements. The Biodiversity Policy and Soil Strategy suffice regarding the inclusion of Co-creation and Sharing of knowledge (100%), while the remaining elements were not considered sufficiently. In contrast, the Environment Policy supports the transition with three elements accounting for 100%. These are Resilience, Recycling, and Human and Social Care. However, when the four documents were combined, elements such as Synergies, Diversity, Efficiency, Human and Social value, Responsible governance, and Co-creation and Sharing of knowledge were identified as fully supportive (100%). This showed that the policies and strategies complemented one another to a certain extent. However, the evaluation results call for improvements concerning elements like Culture and food traditions, Circular and solidarity economy, Resilience, Recycling, and Regulation and balance since the majority of the elements were not sufficiently observed. Consequently, guidance for the smart intensification of local practices is needed, as well as traditional knowledge enriched with advanced technologies. Ethiopian agricultural and environmental policies and strategies should provide sufficient support and guidance for the intensification of sustainable practices and should provide a framework for an agroecological transition towards a sustainable agri-food system.

Keywords: agroecology, diversity, recycling, sustainable food system, transition

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Authors: Amenawo I. Offiong, Hodo B. Riman

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Public debt profile of Nigeria has continuously been on the increase over the years. The drop in international crude oil prices has further worsened revenue position of the country, thus, necessitating further acquisition of public debt to bridge the gap in revenue deficit. Yet, when we look back at the increasing public sector spending, there are concerns that the government spending do not amount to increase in public goods provided for the country. Using data from 1980 to 2014 the study therefore seeks to investigate the factors responsible for the poor provision of public goods in the face of increasing public debt profile. Using the unrestricted VAR model Governance and Tax revenue were introduced into the model as structural variables. The result suggested that governance and tax revenue were structural determinants of the effectiveness of public goods provisioning in Nigeria. The study therefore identified weak governance as the major reason for the non-provision of public goods in Nigeria. While tax revenue exerted positive influence on the provisions of public goods, weak/poor governance was observed to crowd the benefits from increase tax revenue. The study therefore recommends reappraisal of the governance system in Nigeria. Elected officers in governance should be more transparent and accountable to the electorates they represent. Furthermore, the study advocates for an annual auditing of all government MDAs accounts by external auditors to ensure (a) accountability of public debts utilization, (b) transparent in implementation of program support funds, (c) integrity of agencies responsible for program management, and (d) measuring program effectiveness with amount of funds expended.

Keywords: impulse response function, public debt shocks, governance, public goods, tax revenue, vector auto-regression

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Authors: P. Hajyalikhani, E. Gilmore, C. Petty, J. Duron

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Wood framed construction is the most popular method of construction for residential buildings. The typical roof framing for wood-framed buildings is sloped and consists of several structural members, such as rafters, hips, and valleys that link to the ridge and ceiling joists. The most common type of wood framing used is platform framing, also known as stick framing. Failures of the wood framing structures are among the most common types of wind damage in densely populated regions. Wood-framed buildings are under uplift during tornadoes and hurricanes which cause the failure in the roof. The bracing long structure members such as hip and valley have a large impact on the resilience of wood-framed buildings. As a result, the common failures in wood-framed buildings are reviewed, and the critical support locations for lengthy hips and valleys with various slopes are analyzed and recommended.

Keywords: rafters, hips, valleys, hip, ceiling joist, roof failures, residential and commercial structures, hurricane, tornadoes, building codes

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Authors: Melvin Mothoa

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Small Micro and Medium Enterprises are very significant for the development of their market economies. They are the main creators of the new working places, and they present a vital core of the market economy in countries across the globe. Access to finance is identified as crucial for small, micro, and medium-sized enterprises for their growth and innovation. This paper is conceived to propose a perception-based SMME framework to aid in access to financial support. Furthermore, the study will address issues that impede SMMEs in South Africa from obtaining finance from financial institutions. The framework will be tested against data collected from 200 Small Micro & Medium Enterprises in the Gauteng province of South Africa. The study adopts a quantitative method, and the delivery of self-administered questionnaires to SMMEs will be the primary data collection tool. Structural equation modeling will be used to further analyse the data collected.

Keywords: finance, small business, growth, development

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Authors: Nicole Banton

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The maternal and infant mortality rate of Blacks is three times that of Whites in the US. Research indicates that breastfeeding lowers both. In this paper, the researcher examines how the ideas that Black/African American mothers had about breastfeeding before, during, and after pregnancy (postpartum) affected whether or not they initiated breastfeeding. The researcher used snowball sampling to recruit thirty African-American mothers from the Orlando area. At the time of her interview, each mother had at least one child who was at least three years old. Through in-depth face-to-face interviews, the researcher investigated how mothers’ healthcare providers affected their decision-making about infant feeding, as well as how the type of birth that she had (e.g., preterm, vaginal, c-section, full term) affected her actual versus idealized infant feeding practice. Through our discussions, we explored how pre-pregnancy perceptions, birth and postpartum experiences, social support, and the discourses surrounding motherhood within an African-American context affected the perceptions and experiences that the mothers in the study had with their infant feeding practice(s). Findings suggest that the pregnancy and birth experiences of the mothers in the study influenced whether or not they breastfed exclusively, combined breastfeeding and infant formula use, or used infant formula exclusively. Specifically, the interplay of invocation of agency (the ability to control their bodies before, during, and after birth), birth outcomes, and the interaction that the mothers in this study had with resources, human and material, had the highest impact on the initiation, duration, and attitude toward breastfeeding.

Keywords: African American mothers, maternal health, breastfeeding, birth, midwives, obstetricians, hospital birth, breast pumps, formula use, infant feeding, lactation consultant, postpartum, vaginal birth, c-section, familial support, social support, work, pregnancy

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Authors: Mohammad Jamalabadi, Noemi Zabari, Lukasz Bratasz

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Panel paintings -complex multi-layer structures consisting of wood support and a paint layer composed of a preparatory layer of gesso, paints, and varnishes- are among the category of cultural objects most vulnerable to relative humidity fluctuations and frequently found in museum collections. The current environmental specifications in museums have been derived using the criterion of crack initiation in an undamaged, usually new gesso layer laid on wood. In reality, historical paintings exhibit complex crack patterns called craquelures. The present paper analyses the structural response of a paint layer with a virtual network of rectangular cracks under environmental loadings using a three-dimensional model of a panel painting. Two modes of loading are considered -one induced by one-dimensional moisture response of wood support, termed the tangential loading, and the other isotropic induced by drying shrinkage of the gesso layer. The superposition of the two modes is also analysed. The modelling showed that minimum distances between cracks parallel to the wood grain depended on the gesso stiffness under the tangential loading. In spite of a non-zero Poisson’s ratio, gesso cracks perpendicular to the wood grain could not be generated by the moisture response of wood support. The isotropic drying shrinkage of gesso produced cracks that were almost evenly spaced in both directions. The modelling results were cross-checked with crack patterns obtained on a mock-up of a panel painting exposed to a number of extreme environmental variations in an environmental chamber.

Keywords: fracture saturation, surface cracking, paintings on wood, wood panels

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Authors: Afsaneh Mohammadnejad, Marianne Nygaard, Jan Baumbach, Shuxia Li, Weilong Li, Jesper Lund, Jacob v. B. Hjelmborg, Lene Christensen, Qihua Tan

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Cognitive impairment in the elderly is a key issue affecting the quality of life. Despite a strong genetic background in cognition, only a limited number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been found. These explain a small proportion of the genetic component of cognitive function, thus leaving a large proportion unaccounted for. We hypothesize that one reason for this missing heritability is the misspecified modeling in data analysis concerning phenotype distribution as well as the relationship between SNP dosage and the phenotype of interest. In an attempt to overcome these issues, we introduced a model-free method based on the generalized correlation coefficient (GCC) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of cognitive function in twin samples and compared its performance with two popular linear regression models. The GCC-based GWAS identified two genome-wide significant (P-value < 5e-8) SNPs; rs2904650 near ZDHHC2 on chromosome 8 and rs111256489 near CD6 on chromosome 11. The kinship model also detected two genome-wide significant SNPs, rs112169253 on chromosome 4 and rs17417920 on chromosome 7, whereas no genome-wide significant SNPs were found by the linear mixed model (LME). Compared to the linear models, more meaningful biological pathways like GABA receptor activation, ion channel transport, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, and the renin-angiotensin system were found to be enriched by SNPs from GCC. The GCC model outperformed the linear regression models by identifying more genome-wide significant genetic variants and more meaningful biological pathways related to cognitive function. Moreover, GCC-based GWAS was robust in handling genetically related twin samples, which is an important feature in handling genetic confounding in association studies.

Keywords: cognition, generalized correlation coefficient, GWAS, twins

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Authors: Karen L. Middlemiss, Denham G. Cook, Peter Jaksons, Alistair Jerrett, William Davison

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Lateralisation of cognitive function is a common phenomenon found throughout the animal kingdom. Strong biases in functional behaviours have evolved from asymmetrical brain hemispheres which differ in structure and/or cognitive function. In fish, lateralisation is involved in visually mediated behaviours such as schooling, predator avoidance, and foraging, and is considered to have a direct impact on species fitness. Currently, there is very little literature on the role of lateralisation in fish schools. The yellow-eyed mullet (Aldrichetta forsteri), is an estuarine and coastal species found commonly throughout temperate regions of Australia and New Zealand. This study sought to quantify visually mediated behaviours in yellow-eyed mullet to identify the significance of lateralisation, and the factors which influence functional behaviours in schooling fish. Our approach to study design was to conduct a series of tank based experiments investigating; a) individual and population level lateralisation, b) schooling behaviour, and d) optic lobe anatomy. Yellow-eyed mullet showed individual variation in direction and strength of lateralisation in juveniles, and trait specific spatial positioning within the school was evidenced in strongly lateralised fish. In combination with observed differences in schooling behaviour, the possibility of ontogenetic plasticity in both behavioural lateralisation and optic lobe morphology in adults is suggested. These findings highlight the need for research into the genetic and environmental factors (epigenetics) which drive functional behaviours such as schooling, feeding and aggression. Improved knowledge on collective behaviour could have significant benefits to captive rearing programmes through improved culture techniques and will add to the limited body of knowledge on the complex ecophysiological interactions present in our inshore fisheries.

Keywords: cerebral asymmetry, fisheries, schooling, visual bias

Procedia PDF Downloads 199