Search results for: subjective probability

Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: Eduardo Costa

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Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns in what respects patient safety. In fact, data shows that mortality rates for patients admitted during strikes are up to 30% higher than for patients admitted in other days. This paper analyses the effects of hospital strikes on patients’ outcomes. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of different strikes (physicians, nurses and other health professionals), on in-hospital mortality rates, readmission rates and length of stay. The paper uses patient-level data containing all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2017, together with a comprehensive strike dataset comprising over 250 strike days (19 physicians-strike days, 150 nurses-strike days and 50 other health professionals-strike days) from 135 different strikes. The paper uses a linear probability model and controls for hospital and regional characteristics, time trends, and changes in patients’ composition and diagnoses. Preliminary results suggest a 6-7% increase in in-hospital mortality rates for patients exposed to physicians’ strikes. The effect is smaller for patients exposed to nurses’ strikes (2-5%). Patients exposed to nurses strikes during their stay have, on average, higher 30-days urgent readmission rates (4%). Length of stay also seems to increase for patients exposed to any strike. Results – conditional on further testing, namely on non-linear models - suggest that hospital operations and service levels are partially disrupted during strikes.

Keywords: health sector strikes, in-hospital mortality rate, length of stay, readmission rate

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Authors: Leah Gwatimba, Nanga Raymond Raselekoane

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The incidences of youth who engage in unlawful or criminal activities are of great concern for the criminal justice system and government in South Africa. In terms of the juvenile justice system in South Africa, under-age youth who have been found guilty and sentenced to serve a jail term cannot be sent to the same detention facility as adults. The juvenile justice system is meant to protect young offenders from physical, emotional and mental exploitation by adult prisoners. Under-age young offenders should be assisted and exposed to educational, entrepreneurial and behavioral programmes that can equip them with the much needed skills that will turn them into law-abiding and economically productive citizens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the justice system in South Africa in the rehabilitation young offenders. A qualitative method was used. The study used the non-probability purposive sampling to select the respondents. In-depth interviews, focus groups, observation and thematic coding were used to collect and analyse the data respectively. The study population consisted of social workers and offending youth. The sample comprised of 16 respondents (i.e. 4 social workers and twelve offending youth (6 males and 6 females). The study indicated that there is worrying recurrence of the anti-social behavior by some of the young offenders. According to this study, the effectiveness of the juvenile justice system in the rehabilitation of the offending youth can be achieved by paying serious attention to follow-up services, participation of families of the offending youth in the diversion programmes and by improving the socio-economic conditions in the homes and communities of the offending youth.

Keywords: juvenile delinquent, juvenile justice system, diversion programmes, rehabilitation, restorative justice

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Authors: Abdool Qaiyum Mohabuth

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Transferrable skills are learnt abilities which are mainly acquired when experiencing work. University students have the opportunities to develop the knowledge and aptitude at work when they undertake WBL placement during their studies. There is a range of transferrable skills which students may acquire at their placement settings. Several studies have tried to identify a core set of transferrable skills which students can acquire at their placement settings. However, the different lists proposed have often been criticised for being exhaustive and duplicative. In addition, assessing the achievement of students on practice learning based on the transferrable skills is regarded as being complex and tedious due to the variability of placement settings. No attempt has been made in investigating whether these skills are assessable at practice settings. This study seeks to define a set of generic transferrable skills that can be assessed during WBL practice. Quantitative technique was used involving the design of two questionnaires. One was administered to University of Mauritius students who have undertaken WBL practice and the other was slightly modified, destined to mentors who have supervised and assessed students at placement settings. To obtain a good representation of the student’s population, the sample considered was stratified over four Faculties. As for the mentors, probability sampling was considered. Findings revealed that transferrable skills may be subject to formal assessment at practice settings. Hypothesis tested indicate that there was no significant difference between students and mentors as regards to the application of transferrable skills for formal assessment. A list of core transferrable skills that are assessable at any practice settings has been defined after taking into account their degree of being generic, extent of acquisition at work settings and their consideration for formal assessment. Both students and mentors assert that these transferrable skills are accessible at work settings and require commitment and energy to be acquired successfully.

Keywords: knowledge, skills, assessment, placement, mentors

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Authors: Matthew Heidman, Susan Dallabrida, Analice Costa

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Background:Accuracy of caregiver reported outcomes is essential for infant growth and tolerability study success. Crying/fussiness, stool consistencies, and other gastrointestinal characteristics are important parameters regarding tolerability, and inter-caregiver reporting can see a significant amount of subjectivity and vary greatly within a study, compromising data. This study sought to elucidate how caregiver reported questions related to stool frequency are answered before and after a short amount of training and how training impacts caregivers’ understanding, and how they would answer the question. Methods:A digital survey was issued for 90 daysin the US (n=121) and 30 days in Mexico (n=88), targeting respondents with children ≤4 years of age. Respondents were asked a question in two formats, first without a line of training text and second with a line of training text. The question set was as follows, “If your baby had stool in his/her diaper and you changed the diaper and 10 min later there was more stool in the diaper, how many stools would you report this as?” followed by the same question beginning with “If you were given the instruction that IF there are at least 5 minutes in between stools, then it counts as two (2) stools…”.Four response items were provided for both questions, 1) 2 stools, 2) 1stool, 3) it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper, 4) There is not enough information to be able to answer the question. Response frequencies between questions were compared. Results: Responses to the question without training saw some variability in the US, with 69% selecting “2 stools”,11% selecting “1 stool”, 14% selecting “it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper”, and 7% selecting “There is not enough information to be able to answer the question” and in Mexico respondents selected 9%, 78%, 13%, and 0% respectively. However, responses to the question after training saw more consolidation in the US, with 85% of respondents selecting“2 stools,” representing an increase in those selecting the correct answer. Additionally in Mexico, with 84% of respondents selecting “1 episode” representing an increase in the those selecting the correct response. Conclusions: Caregiver reported outcomes are critical for infant growth and tolerability studies, however, they can be highly subjective and see a high variability of responses without guidance. Training is critical to standardize all caregivers’ perspective regarding how to answer questions accurately in order to provide an accurate dataset.

Keywords: infant nutrition, clinical trial optimization, stool reporting, decentralized clinical trials

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Authors: Javed Mallick

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In metropolitan areas, rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have ecological and environmental consequences. Saudi Arabia's cities have experienced tremendous urban growth since the 1990s, resulting in urban heat islands, groundwater depletion, air pollution, loss of ecosystem services, and so on. From 1990 to 2020, this study examines the variance and heterogeneity in land surface temperature (LST) caused by LULC changes in Abha-Khamis Mushyet, Saudi Arabia. LULC was mapped using the support vector machine (SVM). The mono-window algorithm was used to calculate the land surface temperature (LST). To identify LST clusters, the local indicator of spatial associations (LISA) model was applied to spatiotemporal LST maps. In addition, the parallel coordinate (PCP) method was used to investigate the relationship between LST clusters and urban biophysical variables as a proxy for LULC. According to LULC maps, urban areas increased by more than 330% between 1990 and 2018. Between 1990 and 2018, built-up areas had an 83.6% transitional probability. Furthermore, between 1990 and 2020, vegetation and agricultural land were converted into built-up areas at a rate of 17.9% and 21.8%, respectively. Uneven LULC changes in built-up areas result in more LST hotspots. LST hotspots were associated with high NDBI but not NDWI or NDVI. This study could assist policymakers in developing mitigation strategies for urban heat islands

Keywords: land use land cover mapping, land surface temperature, support vector machine, LISA model, parallel coordinate plot

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Authors: Gayatri Ghosh

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In this work, a flavour theory of a neutrino mass model based on A_4 symmetry is considered to explain the phenomenology of neutrino mixing. The spontaneous symmetry breaking of A_4 symmetry in this model leads to tribimaximal mixing in the neutrino sector at a leading order. We consider the effect of Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in neutrino sector and find the allowed region of correction terms in the perturbation matrix that is consistent with 3σ ranges of the experimental values of the mixing angles. We study the entanglement of this formalism on the other phenomenological observables, such as δ_CP phase, the neutrino oscillation probability P(νµ → νe), the effective Majorana mass |mee| and |meff νe |. A Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in this model is introduced in the neutrino sector which leads to testable predictions of θ_13 and CP violation. By changing the magnitudes of perturbations in neutrino sector, one can generate viable values of δ_CP and neutrino oscillation parameters. Next we investigate the feasibility of charged lepton flavour violation in type-I seesaw models with leptonic flavour symmetries at high energy that leads to tribimaximal neutrino mixing. We consider an effective theory with an A_4 × Z_2 × Z_2 symmetry, which after spontaneous symmetry breaking at high scale which is much higher than the electroweak scale leads to charged lepton flavour violation processes once the heavy Majorana neutrino mass degeneracy is lifted either by renormalization group effects or by a soft breaking of the A_4 symmetry. In this context the implications for charged lepton flavour violation processes like µ → eγ, τ → eγ, τ → µγ are discussed.

Keywords: Z2 × Z2 invariant perturbations, CLFV, delta CP phase, tribimaximal neutrino mixing

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Authors: Waleed K. Saib, Abdulsalam M. Alhawsawi, Essam Banoqitah

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The idea of this research is to design a radiation spectrometer using LSO scintillation detector coupled to a C series of SiPM (silicon photomultiplier). The device can be used to detects gamma and X-ray radiation. This device is also designed to estimates the activity of the source contamination. The SiPM will detect light in the visible range above the threshold and read them as counts. Three gamma sources were used for these experiments Cs-137, Am-241 and Co-60 with various activities. These sources are applied for four experiments operating the SiPM as a spectrometer, energy resolution, pile-up set and efficiency. The SiPM is connected to a MCA to perform as a spectrometer. Cerium doped Lutetium Silicate (Lu₂SiO₅) with light yield 26000 photons/Mev coupled with the SiPM. As a result, all the main features of the Cs-137, Am-241 and Co-60 are identified in MCA. The experiment shows how photon energy and probability of interaction are inversely related. Total attenuation reduces as photon energy increases. An analytical calculation was made to obtain the FWHM resolution for each gamma source. The FWHM resolution for Am-241 (59 keV) is 28.75 %, for Cs-137 (662 keV) is 7.85 %, for Co-60 (1173 keV) is 4.46 % and for Co-60 (1332 keV) is 3.70%. Moreover, the experiment shows that the dead time and counts number decreased when the pile-up rejection was disabled and the FWHM decreased when the pile-up was enabled. The efficiencies were calculated at four different distances from the detector 2, 4, 8 and 16 cm. The detection efficiency was observed to declined exponentially with increasing distance from the detector face. Conclusively, the SiPM board operated with an LSO scintillator crystal as a spectrometer. The SiPM energy resolution for the three gamma sources used was a decent comparison to other PMTs.

Keywords: PMT, radiation, radiation detection, scintillation detectors, silicon photomultiplier, spectrometer

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Authors: Hong Yu, Ion Matei

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Carbon fiber reinforced composites (CFRP) used as aircraft structure are subject to lightning strike, putting structural integrity under risk. Indirect damage may occur after a lightning strike where the internal structure can be damaged due to excessive heat induced by lightning current, while the surface of the structures remains intact. Three damage modes may be observed after a lightning strike: fiber breakage, inter-ply delamination and intra-ply cracks. The assessment of internal damage states in composite is challenging due to complicated microstructure, inherent uncertainties, and existence of multiple damage modes. In this work, a model based approach is adopted to diagnose faults in carbon composites after lighting strikes. A resistor network model is implemented to relate the overall electrical and thermal conduction behavior under simulated lightning current waveform to the intrinsic temperature dependent material properties, microstructure and degradation of materials. A fault detection and identification (FDI) module utilizes the physics based model and a particle filtering algorithm to identify damage mode as well as calculate the probability of structural failure. Extensive simulation results are provided to substantiate the proposed fault diagnosis methodology with both single fault and multiple faults cases. The approach is also demonstrated on transient resistance data collected from a IM7/Epoxy laminate under simulated lightning strike.

Keywords: carbon composite, fault detection, fault identification, particle filter

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Authors: Deepa S N, Srinivasan a D, Veeramanju K T

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The power transformer is a critical equipment in the transmission and distribution network that must be managed to ensure uninterrupted power service. The liquid insulation is essential for the proper functioning of the transformer, as it serves as both coolant and insulating medium, which influences the transformer’s durability. Further, the insulating state of a power transformer has a significant impact on its reliability. Mineral oil derived from petroleum crude oil has been employed as liquid dielectrics for decades due to its superior functional characteristics, however as a resource for the same are getting depleted over the years. Research is undertaken across the globe to identify a viable substitute for mineral oil. Further, alternate insulating oils are being investigated for better environmental impact, biodegradability and economics. Several combinations of vegetable oil derived natural esters are being inspected by researchers across the globe in these domains. In this work, mineral oil is blended with soyabean oil with various proportions and dielectric properties such as dielectric breakdown voltage, relative permittivity, dissipation factor, viscosity, flash and fire point have been investigated according to international standards. A quantitative comparison is made among various samples and is observed that the blended oil sample of equal proportion of mineral oil and soyabean oil, MO50+SO50 exhibits superior dielectric properties such as breakdown voltage of 65kV, dissipation factor of 0.0044, relative permittivity of 3.1680 that are closer to the range of values recommended for power transformer applications. Also, Breakdown voltage values of all the investigated oil samples obeyed the Weibull and Normal probability distribution.

Keywords: blended oil, dielectric breakdown, liquid insulation, power transformer

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Authors: Livhuwani Muthelo, R. N. Malema, T. M. Mothiba

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Long term exposure to excessive noise in the mining industry increases the risk of noise induced hearing loss, with consequences for employee’s health, productivity and the overall quality of life. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that contribute to Noise Induced Hearing Loss amongst employees at the Platinum mine in the Limpopo Province, South Africa. Study method: A qualitative, phenomenological, exploratory, descriptive, contextual design was applied in order to explore and describe the contributory factors. Purposive non-probability sampling was used to select 10 male employees who were diagnosed with NIHL in the year 2014 in four mine shafts, and 10 managers who were involved in a Hearing Conservation Programme. The data were collected using semi-structured one-on-one interviews. A qualitative data analysis of Tesch’s approach was followed. Results: The following themes emerged: Experiences and challenges faced by employees in the work environment, hearing protective device factors and management and leadership factors. Hearing loss was caused by partial application of guidelines, policies, and procedures from the Department of Minerals and Energy. Conclusion: The study results indicate that although there are guidelines, policies, and procedures available, failure in the implementation of one element will affect the development and maintenance of employees hearing mechanism. It is recommended that the mine management should apply the guidelines, policies, and procedures and promptly repair the broken hearing protective devices.

Keywords: employees, factors, noise induced hearing loss, noise exposure

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Authors: Cornelius Michael Ekenta

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The research made a gender comparative analysis of the influence of sources of information on the adoption of tenera improved oil palm technology. Purposive, stratified and random sampling techniques were used to sample a total of 292 farmers (155 males and 137 females) for the study. Structured questionnaire was used to obtain primary data used for analysis. Obtained data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and Logit regressions analysis. Findings revealed that radio, extension office, television and farmers’ group were the most preferred sources of information by the farmers both male and female. Also, males perceived information from radio (92%) and farmers’ group (84%) to be available and information from Research Institutes as credible (95%). Similarly, the female perceived information from Research Institutes to be reliable (70%). The study showed that 38% of men adopted the variety, 25% of the women adopted the variety while 32% of both men and women adopted the variety in the study area. Regressions analysis indicated that radio, extension office, television, farmers’ group and research institute were significant at 0.5% of probability for men and female farmers. The study concluded that the adoption of tenera improved oil palm technology was low among male and female farmers though men adopted more than the women. It was recommended therefore that Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) in other states of the country should partner with their state radio and television stations to broadcast agricultural programmes periodically to ensure efficient dissemination of agricultural information to the farmers.

Keywords: analysis, Edo, gender, influence, information, sources, tenera

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Authors: Stacie Nelson Colling, Adele Cummings

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The United States Supreme Court recently announced that it is unconstitutional to sentence a child to life without parole for non-homicide offenses, and that each child so situated must be afforded a meaningful opportunity for release from prison in his lifetime. The Court also declared that it is unconstitutional to impose a mandatory sentence of life without parole on a child for homicide offenses. Across the United States, attorneys and advocates continue to litigate issues surrounding the implementation of these legal principles. Some states have held that any sentence to a finite term of years, no matter how long, is not the same as ‘life’ and therefore does not violate the constitution. Other states have held that a sentence to a term of years that is less than the expected life of that particular child is not unconstitutional. In Colorado, the courts have routinely looked to life expectancy estimates from governmental organizations to determine how long a particular child is expected to live. They then compare that the date that the child is expected to be eligible for parole, and if the child is expected to still be living when he is eligible for parole, the sentence is deemed constitutional. This paper argues that it is inappropriate, reckless, unconstitutional and not scientifically sound to use such estimates in determining whether a child will have a meaningful opportunity for release from prison and life outside of prison before he dies. This paper argues that the opportunity for release must mean more than a probability that a child will be released before his death, and that it must include an opportunity for a meaningful life outside of prison (not just the opportunity to be released and then die on the outside). The paper further argues that life expectancy estimates cannot guide a court or a legislature in determining whether a sentence is or is not constitutional.

Keywords: life without parole, life expectancy, juvenile sentencing, meaningful opportunity for release from prison

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Authors: Jean Berger, Nassirou Lo, Martin Noel

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Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.

Keywords: search path planning, search and rescue, multi-agent, mixed-integer linear programming, optimization

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Authors: Lana Singleton

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Achieving a sufficient global solution to climate change seems elusive through disappointing climate agreements and lack of cooperation. However, is this reluctance of coordination deep rooted on a more individual, societal level within countries due to a fundamental lack of social and institutional trust? The risks of climate change are illustrious and widely accepted, yet responses on an individual level are also largely inadequate. This research looks to further investigate types of trust, risk perception of climate change, and their interaction to build a greater understanding of whether a social trap (Rothstein, 2005) – where an absence of trust can overwhelm an individuals’ risk perception and result in minimal action despite knowing the dangers of no action – exists and where it is more prevalent. Presence of the social trap will be analysed for willingness to act in favour of climate change mitigation as well as attitude (acceptance) of different types of renewable energy forms. Using probit models with cross-sectional survey data on four developed European countries (UK, France, Germany, and Norway), we find evidence of the social trap in the aggregated data model, which highlights the importance of social trust regarding willingness to act in favour of climate mitigation as there is a high probability of action regardless of risk perception of climate change when social trust is high. In contrast, the same is not true for renewables, as interactions were mainly insignificant, although there were interesting findings involving institutional trust, gender, and country specific results for particular renewables.

Keywords: climate risk, renewables, risk perception, social trap, trust, willingness to act

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi

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Introduction: Inactivity is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. According to the study prevalence of inactivity in Iran, about 67.5% and in the staff, and especially nurses, are similar. The inflammatory index (HS-CRP) is highly predictive of the progression of these diseases. Physical activity education is very important in preventing these diseases. One of the modern educational methods is web-based theory-based education. Methods: This is a semi-experimental interventional study which was conducted in Isfahan and Kurdistan universities of medical sciences in two stages. A cross-sectional study was done to determine the status of physical activity and its predictive factors. Then, intervention was performed, and six months later the data were retrieved. The data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, an integrative model of behavior prediction constructs, a standard physical activity questionnaire and (HS-CRP) test. Data were analyzed by SPSS software. Results: Physical activity was low in 66.6% of nurses, 25.4% were moderate and 8% severe. According to Pearson correlation matrix, the highest correlation was found between behavioral intention and skill structures (0.553**), subjective norms (0.222**) and self-efficacy (0.198**). The relationship between age and physical activity in the first study was reverse and significant. After intervention, there was a significant change in attitudes, self-efficacy, skill and behavioral intention in the intervention group. This change was significant in attitudes, self-efficacy and environmental conditions of the control group. HS-CRP index decreased significantly after intervention in both groups, but there was not a significant relationship between inflammatory index and physical activity score. The change in physical activity level was significant only in the control group. Conclusion: Despite the effect of educational intervention on attitude, self-efficacy, skill, and behavioral intention, the results showed that if factors such as environmental factors are not corrected, training and changing structures cannot lead to physical activity behavior. On the other hand, no correlation between physical activity and HS-CRP showed that this index can be influenced by other factors, and this should be considered in any intervention to reduce the HS-CRP index.

Keywords: HS-CRP, integrative model of behavior prediction, physical activity, nurses, web-based education

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Authors: V. A. Ritchie

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The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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Authors: Daniel Pinheiro Da Silva Junior, Aline Paes, Daniel De Oliveira, Christiano Lacerda Ghuerren, Marcio Duran

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The Courts of Accounts are institutions responsible for overseeing and point out irregularities of Public Administration expenses. They have a high demand for processes to be analyzed, whose decisions must be grounded on severity laws. Despite the existing large amount of processes, there are several cases reporting similar subjects. Thus, previous decisions on already analyzed processes can be a precedent for current processes that refer to similar topics. Identifying similar topics is an open, yet essential task for identifying similarities between several processes. Since the actual amount of topics is considerably large, it is tedious and error-prone to identify topics using a pure manual approach. This paper presents a tool based on Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing to assists in building a labeled dataset. The tool relies on Topic Modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation to find the topics underlying a document followed by Jensen Shannon distance metric to generate a probability of similarity between documents pairs. Furthermore, in a case study with a corpus of decisions of the Rio de Janeiro State Court of Accounts, it was noted that data pre-processing plays an essential role in modeling relevant topics. Also, the combination of topic modeling and a calculated distance metric over document represented among generated topics has been proved useful in helping to construct a labeled base of similar and non-similar document pairs.

Keywords: courts of accounts, data labelling, document similarity, topic modeling

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Authors: Huma Aly, Caramel Rodger, Saman Zafar

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The present study explored the role of caste system in determining and understanding various personality characteristics related to different castes. It analyzed various personality characteristics of Arains, Jutts and Sheikhs caste of Pakistan. Reasons for the emphasis on within caste marriage in relation to personality characteristics were identified. In the present study a sample of 200 unmarried students were taken from different institutes of Lahore, Pakistan. 117 students were taken from Fast University and 83 from LUMS (Lahore University of Management and Sciences) on the basis of purposive and convenience sampling. 76 Arains, 59 Sheikhs and 65 Jutts were taken. Non-probability purposive sampling, quantitative research method, big five personality scale were used. Kruskal Wallis test was used as three independent groups were taken in the study. Results revealed various personality characteristics associated with different castes namely Arain, Jutts and Sheikhs. Individuals belonging to Jutts caste were reported to be high on being talkative, findings faults, doing thorough job, being depressed, reservedness, quarrelling, reliable, tensed, deep thinker, worrying a lot, imaginative, lazy, inventive, assertive, cold aloof, preserved and rude. Arains were reported to be original, helpful, careless,relaxed, curious, enthusiastic, forgiving, quiet, trusting, moody, shy, retaining anger, routinely working, planners, nervous, playing with ideas, artistic, cooperative, easily distracted and sophisticated. Lastly, Sheikhs were reported to be energetic, disorganized, stable. This study will play a significant part in changing the traditional viewpoint of majority of elders of our society who still have immense association with the caste they belong to.

Keywords: castes, personality, Arains, Jutts, Sheikhs, Pakistan

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Authors: Yunzi Chen, James Laybourne, Sarah Steven, Peter Carey, David Steel, Maria Sandinha

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Introduction: Bariatric surgery is popular with the rising incidence of obesity. Its well-known benefits include significant and rapid glycaemic control. However, cases of paradoxical worsening in diabetic retinopathy (DR) despite improved glycaemic control have been reported. Purpose: clarification on the evolution of diabetic retinopathy after bariatric surgery. Method: retrospective study of 40 patients with Type 2 diabetes who underwent bariatric surgery in a UK specialist bariatric unit between 2009 and 2011. Pre-operative and post-operative visual acuity (VA), weight, HbA1c and annual DRSS screening results were analysed. Median follow up was 50 months. Results: No significant change in VA was found during the post-operative period. 85% of patients improved HbA1c post-operatively of which 53% achieved non-diabetic HbA1c of <6.1% - despite this, 2 patients developed new DR. First post-operative screening showed 80% of patients experienced no change, 8% improved but 13% of patients developed new DR (1 case with sight-threatening maculopathy). 80% of these cases persisted up to 24 months. The proportion of patients developing new or worse DR fluctuated over time, peaking at the 3rd annual screening with 26% (15% regressed, 56% stable). The probability of developing new or worse DR postoperatively was significantly associated with a high pre-operative HbA1c (>8%) and male gender. Conclusions: bariatric surgery does not guarantee long-term improvement or prevention of DR. Asymptomatic changes in DR occurred up to 5 years postoperatively. We therefore consider it prudent to continue screening in this cohort of patients.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, diabetic retinopathy, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: K. Doi, T. Nishimura, H. Fujimoto, T. Tanaka

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It has been known that visually impaired persons have some problems in getting visual information. Therefore, information accessibility for the visually impaired persons is very important in a current information society. Some application software with read-aloud function for using personal computer and smartphone are getting more and more popular among visually impaired persons in the world. On the other hand, it is also very important for being able to learn how to read and write characters such as Braille and Visual character. Braille typewriter has been widely used in learning Braille. And also raised-line drawing kits as writing material has been used for decades for especially acquired visually impaired persons. However, there are some drawbacks such as the drawn line cannot be erased. Moreover, visibility of drawing lines is not so good for visually impaired with low vision. We had significant number of requests for developing new writing material for especially acquired visually impaired persons instead of raised-line drawing kits. For conducting development research of novel writing material, we could receive a research grant from ministry of health, labor and welfare in Japanese government. In this research, we developed writing material typed pens and pencils with Beeswax-discharge instead of conventional raised-line drawing kits. This writing material was equipped with cartridge heater for melting beeswax and its heat controller. When this pen users held down the pen tip on the regular paper such as fine paper and so on, the melted beeswax could be discharged from pen tip with valve structure. The beeswax was discharged at 100 gf of holding down force based on results of our previous trial study. The shape of pen tip was semispherical for becoming low friction between pen tip and surface of paper. We conducted one basic experiment to evaluate influence of the curvature of pen tip on ease to write. Concretely, the conditions of curvature was 0.15, 0.35, 0.50, 1.00 mm. The following four interval scales were used as indexes of subjective assessment during writing such as feeling of smooth motion of pen, feeling of comfortable writing, sense of security and feeling of writing fatigue. Ten subjects were asked to participate in this experiment. The results reveal that subjects could draw easily when the radius of the pen tip was 1.00 mm, and lines drawn with beeswax-discharge writing material were easy to perceive.

Keywords: beeswax-discharge writing material, raised-line drawing kits, visually impaired persons, pen tip

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Authors: Alexander N. Pisarchik, Parth Chholak

Abstract:

Intrinsic brain noise was estimated via magneto-encephalograms (MEG) recorded during perception of flickering visual stimuli with frequencies of 6.67 and 8.57 Hz. First, we measured the mean phase difference between the flicker signal and steady-state event-related field (SSERF) in the occipital area where the brain response at the flicker frequencies and their harmonics appeared in the power spectrum. Then, we calculated the probability distribution of the phase fluctuations in the regions of frequency locking and computed its kurtosis. Since kurtosis is a measure of the distribution’s sharpness, we suppose that inverse kurtosis is related to intrinsic brain noise. In our experiments, the kurtosis value varied among subjects from K = 3 to K = 5 for 6.67 Hz and from 2.6 to 4 for 8.57 Hz. The majority of subjects demonstrated leptokurtic kurtosis (K < 3), i.e., the distribution tails approached zero more slowly than Gaussian. In addition, we found a strong correlation between kurtosis and brain complexity measured as the correlation dimension, so that the MEGs of subjects with higher kurtosis exhibited lower complexity. The obtained results are discussed in the framework of nonlinear dynamics and complex network theories. Specifically, in a network of coupled oscillators, phase synchronization is mainly determined by two antagonistic factors, noise, and the coupling strength. While noise worsens phase synchronization, the coupling improves it. If we assume that each neuron and each synapse contribute to brain noise, the larger neuronal network should have stronger noise, and therefore phase synchronization should be worse, that results in smaller kurtosis. The described method for brain noise estimation can be useful for diagnostics of some brain pathologies associated with abnormal brain noise.

Keywords: brain, flickering, magnetoencephalography, MEG, visual perception, perception time

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Authors: Yu-Hong Lin

Abstract:

Background: An adverse drug reaction (ADR) reported is an injury which caused by taking medicines. Sometimes the severity of ADR reported may be minor, but sometimes it could be a life-threatening situation. In order to provide healthcare professionals as a better reference in clinical practice, we do data collection and analysis from our hospital. Methods: This was a retrospective study of ADRs reported performed from 2014 to 2015 in our hospital in Taiwan. We collected assessment items of ADRs reported, which contain gender and age, occurring sources, Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification of suspected drugs, types of adverse reactions, Naranjo score calculating by Naranjo Adverse Drug Reaction Probability Scale and so on. Results: The investigation included two hundred and seven ADRs reported. Most of ADRs reported were occurring in outpatient department (92%). The average age of ADRs reported was 65.3 years. Less than 65 years of age were in the majority in this study (54%). Majority of all ADRs reported were males (51%). According to ATC classification system, the major classification of suspected drugs was cardiovascular system (19%) and antiinfectives for systemic use (18%) respectively. Among the adverse reactions, Dermatologic Effects (35%) were the major type of ADRs. Also, the major Naranjo scores of all ADRs reported ranged from 1 to 4 points (91%), which represents a possible correlation between ADRs reported and suspected drugs. Conclusions: Definitely, ADRs reported is still an extremely important information for healthcare professionals. For that reason, we put all information of ADRs reported into our hospital's computer system, and it will improve the safety of medication use. By hospital's computer system, it can remind prescribers to think of information about patient's ADRs reported. No drugs are administered without risk. Therefore, all healthcare professionals should have a responsibility to their patients, who themselves are becoming more aware of problems associated with drug therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, Taiwan, healthcare professionals, safe use of medicines

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Authors: Kougioumtzis Konstantin, Rylander Pär, Karlsteen Magnus

Abstract:

Ball skills as a subset of fundamental motor skills are predictors for performance in sports. Currently, most tools evaluate ball skills utilizing subjective ratings. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed instrument to objectively measure ball handling skills (BHS-test) utilizing digital instrument. Participants were a convenience sample of 213 adolescents (age M = 17.1 years, SD =3.6; 55% females, 45% males) recruited from upper secondary schools and invited to a sports hall for the assessment. The 8-item instrument incorporated both accuracy-based ball skill tests and repetitive-performance tests with a ball. Testers counted performance manually in the four tests (one throwing and three juggling tasks). Furthermore, assessment was technologically enhanced in the other four tests utilizing a ball machine, a Kinect camera and balls with motion sensors (one balancing and three rolling tasks). 3D printing technology was used to construct equipment, while all results were administered digitally with smart phones/tablets, computers and a specially constructed application to send data to a server. The instrument was deemed reliable (α = .77) and principal component analysis was used in a random subset (53 of the participants). Furthermore, latent variable modeling was employed to confirm the structure with the remaining subset (160 of the participants). The analysis showed good factorial-related validity with one factor explaining 57.90 % of the total variance. Four loadings were larger than .80, two more exceeded .76 and the other two were .65 and .49. The one factor solution was confirmed by a first order model with one general factor and an excellent fit between model and data (χ² = 16.12, DF = 20; RMSEA = .00, CI90 .00–.05; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = .02). The loadings on the general factor ranged between .65 and .83. Our findings indicate good reliability and construct validity for the BHS-test. To develop the instrument further, more studies are needed with various age-groups, e.g. children. We suggest using the BHS-test for diagnostic or assessment purpose for talent development and sports participation interventions that focus on ball games.

Keywords: ball-handling skills, ball-handling ability, technologically-enhanced measurements, assessment

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Authors: Eda Orhun

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

Abstract:

Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

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Authors: O. S. Asaolu, A. Bolorunduro

Abstract:

Background: Unwanted, mistimed and unintended pregnancy is an important public health issue and the most common cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. Unintended pregnancy is a potential hazard for every sexually active woman as it most times ends in unsafe abortion. The study aimed at assessing the pre-conception contraceptive use, prevalence of unintended pregnancies and the non-contraceptive factors associated with unintended pregnancy amongst currently married women in Osun state. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study among randomly selected 341 currently married pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Ilesa town of Osun state was conducted in 5 health facilities. A random selection of 5 of the 22 health facilities in the state was done. Data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire and all completed questionnaires were analyzed with SPSS. Result: About two-fifth of the currently pregnant women (40%) who has never used an FP method reported that their current pregnancy was unintended. The results indicate that age of women, age at first sex, substance use, total children ever born of children, religion, and extramarital affairs were key predictors of unintended pregnancy. Women who have higher parity are more likely to experience unintended pregnancy compared to women with lower parity (odds ratio, 0.25). Furthermore, those women who don’t engage in extra marital affairs were less likely to experience unintended pregnancy (odds ratio, 0.3) compared to those who do not. Contribution to knowledge: The predicted probability, using logistic regression, has shown that women who engage in extramarital affairs and women with high parity are more likely to have unintended pregnancy. Conclusion: Behaviour change programs should aim to reduce unintended pregnancy by focusing mostly on identified factors so that the need for abortion is decreased and the overall well-being of the family is maintained and enhanced.

Keywords: unintended pregnancy, factors, pregnant women, Nigeria

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Authors: Narges Ebadi, Davod Ahmadi, Hiliary Monteith, Hugo Melgar-Quinonez

Abstract:

Migration cannot necessarily relieve pressure on water resources in origin communities, and male out-migration can increase the water management burden of women. However, inflows of financial remittances seem to offer possibilities of investing in improving drinking-water access. Therefore, remittances may be an important pathway for migrants to support water security. This paper explores the association between water access and the receipt of remittances in households in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from round 6 of the 'Afrobarometer' surveys in 2016 were used (n= 49,137). Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out in this study. Regardless of country, findings from descriptive analyses showed that approximately 80% of the respondents never received remittance, and 52% had enough clean water. Only one-fifth of the respondents had piped water supply inside the house (19.9%), and approximately 25% had access to a toilet inside the house. Bivariate analyses revealed that even though receiving remittances was significantly associated with water supply, the strength of association was very weak. However, other factors such as the area of residence (rural vs. urban), cash income frequencies, electricity access, and asset ownership were strongly associated with water access. Results from unadjusted multinomial logistic regression revealed that the probability of having no access to piped water increased among remittance recipients who received financial support at least once a month (OR=1.324) (p < 0.001). In contrast, those not receiving remittances were more likely to regularly have a water access concern (OR=1.294) (p < 0.001), and not have access to a latrine (OR=1.665) (p < 0.001). In conclusion, receiving remittances is significantly related to water access as the strength of odds ratios for socio-demographic factors was stronger.

Keywords: remittances, water access, SSA, migration

Procedia PDF Downloads 179