Search results for: subjective probability

Authors: Alexander N. Pisarchik, Parth Chholak

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Intrinsic brain noise was estimated via magneto-encephalograms (MEG) recorded during perception of flickering visual stimuli with frequencies of 6.67 and 8.57 Hz. First, we measured the mean phase difference between the flicker signal and steady-state event-related field (SSERF) in the occipital area where the brain response at the flicker frequencies and their harmonics appeared in the power spectrum. Then, we calculated the probability distribution of the phase fluctuations in the regions of frequency locking and computed its kurtosis. Since kurtosis is a measure of the distribution’s sharpness, we suppose that inverse kurtosis is related to intrinsic brain noise. In our experiments, the kurtosis value varied among subjects from K = 3 to K = 5 for 6.67 Hz and from 2.6 to 4 for 8.57 Hz. The majority of subjects demonstrated leptokurtic kurtosis (K < 3), i.e., the distribution tails approached zero more slowly than Gaussian. In addition, we found a strong correlation between kurtosis and brain complexity measured as the correlation dimension, so that the MEGs of subjects with higher kurtosis exhibited lower complexity. The obtained results are discussed in the framework of nonlinear dynamics and complex network theories. Specifically, in a network of coupled oscillators, phase synchronization is mainly determined by two antagonistic factors, noise, and the coupling strength. While noise worsens phase synchronization, the coupling improves it. If we assume that each neuron and each synapse contribute to brain noise, the larger neuronal network should have stronger noise, and therefore phase synchronization should be worse, that results in smaller kurtosis. The described method for brain noise estimation can be useful for diagnostics of some brain pathologies associated with abnormal brain noise.

Keywords: brain, flickering, magnetoencephalography, MEG, visual perception, perception time

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Authors: Yu-Hong Lin

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Background: An adverse drug reaction (ADR) reported is an injury which caused by taking medicines. Sometimes the severity of ADR reported may be minor, but sometimes it could be a life-threatening situation. In order to provide healthcare professionals as a better reference in clinical practice, we do data collection and analysis from our hospital. Methods: This was a retrospective study of ADRs reported performed from 2014 to 2015 in our hospital in Taiwan. We collected assessment items of ADRs reported, which contain gender and age, occurring sources, Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification of suspected drugs, types of adverse reactions, Naranjo score calculating by Naranjo Adverse Drug Reaction Probability Scale and so on. Results: The investigation included two hundred and seven ADRs reported. Most of ADRs reported were occurring in outpatient department (92%). The average age of ADRs reported was 65.3 years. Less than 65 years of age were in the majority in this study (54%). Majority of all ADRs reported were males (51%). According to ATC classification system, the major classification of suspected drugs was cardiovascular system (19%) and antiinfectives for systemic use (18%) respectively. Among the adverse reactions, Dermatologic Effects (35%) were the major type of ADRs. Also, the major Naranjo scores of all ADRs reported ranged from 1 to 4 points (91%), which represents a possible correlation between ADRs reported and suspected drugs. Conclusions: Definitely, ADRs reported is still an extremely important information for healthcare professionals. For that reason, we put all information of ADRs reported into our hospital's computer system, and it will improve the safety of medication use. By hospital's computer system, it can remind prescribers to think of information about patient's ADRs reported. No drugs are administered without risk. Therefore, all healthcare professionals should have a responsibility to their patients, who themselves are becoming more aware of problems associated with drug therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, Taiwan, healthcare professionals, safe use of medicines

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Authors: Eda Orhun

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Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: K. Doi, T. Nishimura, H. Fujimoto, T. Tanaka

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It has been known that visually impaired persons have some problems in getting visual information. Therefore, information accessibility for the visually impaired persons is very important in a current information society. Some application software with read-aloud function for using personal computer and smartphone are getting more and more popular among visually impaired persons in the world. On the other hand, it is also very important for being able to learn how to read and write characters such as Braille and Visual character. Braille typewriter has been widely used in learning Braille. And also raised-line drawing kits as writing material has been used for decades for especially acquired visually impaired persons. However, there are some drawbacks such as the drawn line cannot be erased. Moreover, visibility of drawing lines is not so good for visually impaired with low vision. We had significant number of requests for developing new writing material for especially acquired visually impaired persons instead of raised-line drawing kits. For conducting development research of novel writing material, we could receive a research grant from ministry of health, labor and welfare in Japanese government. In this research, we developed writing material typed pens and pencils with Beeswax-discharge instead of conventional raised-line drawing kits. This writing material was equipped with cartridge heater for melting beeswax and its heat controller. When this pen users held down the pen tip on the regular paper such as fine paper and so on, the melted beeswax could be discharged from pen tip with valve structure. The beeswax was discharged at 100 gf of holding down force based on results of our previous trial study. The shape of pen tip was semispherical for becoming low friction between pen tip and surface of paper. We conducted one basic experiment to evaluate influence of the curvature of pen tip on ease to write. Concretely, the conditions of curvature was 0.15, 0.35, 0.50, 1.00 mm. The following four interval scales were used as indexes of subjective assessment during writing such as feeling of smooth motion of pen, feeling of comfortable writing, sense of security and feeling of writing fatigue. Ten subjects were asked to participate in this experiment. The results reveal that subjects could draw easily when the radius of the pen tip was 1.00 mm, and lines drawn with beeswax-discharge writing material were easy to perceive.

Keywords: beeswax-discharge writing material, raised-line drawing kits, visually impaired persons, pen tip

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

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Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

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Authors: O. S. Asaolu, A. Bolorunduro

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Background: Unwanted, mistimed and unintended pregnancy is an important public health issue and the most common cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. Unintended pregnancy is a potential hazard for every sexually active woman as it most times ends in unsafe abortion. The study aimed at assessing the pre-conception contraceptive use, prevalence of unintended pregnancies and the non-contraceptive factors associated with unintended pregnancy amongst currently married women in Osun state. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study among randomly selected 341 currently married pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Ilesa town of Osun state was conducted in 5 health facilities. A random selection of 5 of the 22 health facilities in the state was done. Data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire and all completed questionnaires were analyzed with SPSS. Result: About two-fifth of the currently pregnant women (40%) who has never used an FP method reported that their current pregnancy was unintended. The results indicate that age of women, age at first sex, substance use, total children ever born of children, religion, and extramarital affairs were key predictors of unintended pregnancy. Women who have higher parity are more likely to experience unintended pregnancy compared to women with lower parity (odds ratio, 0.25). Furthermore, those women who don’t engage in extra marital affairs were less likely to experience unintended pregnancy (odds ratio, 0.3) compared to those who do not. Contribution to knowledge: The predicted probability, using logistic regression, has shown that women who engage in extramarital affairs and women with high parity are more likely to have unintended pregnancy. Conclusion: Behaviour change programs should aim to reduce unintended pregnancy by focusing mostly on identified factors so that the need for abortion is decreased and the overall well-being of the family is maintained and enhanced.

Keywords: unintended pregnancy, factors, pregnant women, Nigeria

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Authors: Kougioumtzis Konstantin, Rylander Pär, Karlsteen Magnus

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Ball skills as a subset of fundamental motor skills are predictors for performance in sports. Currently, most tools evaluate ball skills utilizing subjective ratings. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed instrument to objectively measure ball handling skills (BHS-test) utilizing digital instrument. Participants were a convenience sample of 213 adolescents (age M = 17.1 years, SD =3.6; 55% females, 45% males) recruited from upper secondary schools and invited to a sports hall for the assessment. The 8-item instrument incorporated both accuracy-based ball skill tests and repetitive-performance tests with a ball. Testers counted performance manually in the four tests (one throwing and three juggling tasks). Furthermore, assessment was technologically enhanced in the other four tests utilizing a ball machine, a Kinect camera and balls with motion sensors (one balancing and three rolling tasks). 3D printing technology was used to construct equipment, while all results were administered digitally with smart phones/tablets, computers and a specially constructed application to send data to a server. The instrument was deemed reliable (α = .77) and principal component analysis was used in a random subset (53 of the participants). Furthermore, latent variable modeling was employed to confirm the structure with the remaining subset (160 of the participants). The analysis showed good factorial-related validity with one factor explaining 57.90 % of the total variance. Four loadings were larger than .80, two more exceeded .76 and the other two were .65 and .49. The one factor solution was confirmed by a first order model with one general factor and an excellent fit between model and data (χ² = 16.12, DF = 20; RMSEA = .00, CI90 .00–.05; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = .02). The loadings on the general factor ranged between .65 and .83. Our findings indicate good reliability and construct validity for the BHS-test. To develop the instrument further, more studies are needed with various age-groups, e.g. children. We suggest using the BHS-test for diagnostic or assessment purpose for talent development and sports participation interventions that focus on ball games.

Keywords: ball-handling skills, ball-handling ability, technologically-enhanced measurements, assessment

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Authors: Narges Ebadi, Davod Ahmadi, Hiliary Monteith, Hugo Melgar-Quinonez

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Migration cannot necessarily relieve pressure on water resources in origin communities, and male out-migration can increase the water management burden of women. However, inflows of financial remittances seem to offer possibilities of investing in improving drinking-water access. Therefore, remittances may be an important pathway for migrants to support water security. This paper explores the association between water access and the receipt of remittances in households in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from round 6 of the 'Afrobarometer' surveys in 2016 were used (n= 49,137). Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out in this study. Regardless of country, findings from descriptive analyses showed that approximately 80% of the respondents never received remittance, and 52% had enough clean water. Only one-fifth of the respondents had piped water supply inside the house (19.9%), and approximately 25% had access to a toilet inside the house. Bivariate analyses revealed that even though receiving remittances was significantly associated with water supply, the strength of association was very weak. However, other factors such as the area of residence (rural vs. urban), cash income frequencies, electricity access, and asset ownership were strongly associated with water access. Results from unadjusted multinomial logistic regression revealed that the probability of having no access to piped water increased among remittance recipients who received financial support at least once a month (OR=1.324) (p < 0.001). In contrast, those not receiving remittances were more likely to regularly have a water access concern (OR=1.294) (p < 0.001), and not have access to a latrine (OR=1.665) (p < 0.001). In conclusion, receiving remittances is significantly related to water access as the strength of odds ratios for socio-demographic factors was stronger.

Keywords: remittances, water access, SSA, migration

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Authors: Jianguo Chen, Fenggang Zang, Yu Yang, Liangang Zheng

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Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is an important security barrier in nuclear power plant. Crack like defects may be produced on RPV during the whole operation lifetime due to the harsh operation condition and irradiation embrittlement. During the severe loss of coolant accident, thermal shock happened as the injection of emergency cooling water into RPV, which results in re-pressurization of the vessel and very high tension stress on the vessel wall, this event called Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS). Crack on the vessel wall may propagate even penetrate the vessel, so the safety of the RPV would undergo great challenge. Many assumptions in structure integrity evaluation make the result of deterministic fracture mechanics very conservative, which affect the operation lifetime of the plant. Actually, many parameters in the evaluation process, such as fracture toughness and nil-ductility transition temperature, have statistical distribution characteristics. So it is necessary to assess the structural integrity of RPV subjected to PTS event by means of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM). Structure integrity evaluation methods of RPV subjected to PTS event are summarized firstly, then evaluation method based on probabilistic fracture mechanics are presented by considering the probabilistic characteristics of material and structure parameters. A comprehensive analysis example is carried out at last. The results show that the probability of crack penetrates through wall increases gradually with the growth of fast neutron irradiation flux. The results give advice for reactor life extension.

Keywords: fracture toughness, integrity evaluation, pressurized thermal shock, probabilistic fracture mechanics, reactor pressure vessel

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Authors: Amaal Ali Al-Gamde

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The Syrian revolution is a major issue in the Middle East, which draws in world powers and receives a great focus in international mass media since 2011. The heavy global reliance on cyber news and digital sources plays a key role in conveying a sense of bias to a wide range of online readers. Thus, based on the assumption that media discourse possesses ideological implications, this study investigates the representation of Syrian revolution in online media. The paper explores the discursive constructions of anti and pro-government powers in Syrian revolution in 1000,000-word corpus of Fars online reports (an Iranian news agency), issued between 2013 and 2015. Taking a corpus assisted discourse analysis approach, the analysis investigates three types of lexicosemantic relations, the semantic macrostructures within which the two social actors are framed, the lexical collocations characterizing the news discourse and the discourse prosodies they tell about the two sides of the conflict. The study utilizes computer-based approaches, sketch engine and AntConc software to minimize the bias of the subjective analysis. The analysis moves from the insights of lexical frequencies and keyness scores to examine themes and the collocational patterns. The findings reveal the Fars agency’s ideological mode of representations in reporting events of Syrian revolution in two ways. The first is by stereotyping the opposition groups under the umbrella of terrorism, using words such as (law breakers, foreign-backed groups, militant groups, terrorists) to legitimize the atrocities of security forces against protesters and enhance horror among civilians. The second is through emphasizing the power of the government and depicting it as the defender of the Arab land by foregrounding the discourse of international conspiracy against Syria. The paper concludes discussing the potential importance of triangulating corpus linguistic tools with critical discourse analysis to elucidate more about discourses and reality.

Keywords: discourse prosody, ideology, keyness, semantic macrostructure

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Jacky Liu, Dulani Jayasuriya, Ryan Elmore

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Match fixing and anomalous sports events have increasingly threatened the integrity of professional sports, prompting concerns about existing detection methods. This study addresses prior research limitations in match fixing detection, improving the identification of potential fraudulent matches by incorporating advanced anomaly detection techniques. We develop a novel method to identify anomalous matches and player performances by examining series of matches, such as playoffs. Additionally, we investigate bettors' potential profits when avoiding anomaly matches and explore factors behind unusual player performances. Our literature review covers match fixing detection, match outcome forecasting models, and anomaly detection methods, underscoring current limitations and proposing a new sports anomaly detection method. Our findings reveal anomalous series in the 2022 NBA playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks series having the lowest natural occurrence probability. We identify abnormal player performances and bettors' profits significantly decrease when post-season matches are included. This study contributes by developing a new approach to detect anomalous matches and player performances, and assisting investigators in identifying responsible parties. While we cannot conclusively establish reasons behind unusual player performances, our findings suggest factors such as team financial difficulties, executive mismanagement, and individual player contract issues.

Keywords: anomaly match detection, match fixing, match outcome forecasting, problematic players identification

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Authors: Bidzina Matsaberidze

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It is known that, in emergency situations, multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) models are characterized by insufficient objective data and a lack of time to respond to the task. Evidence theory is an effective tool for describing such incomplete information in decision-making models when the expert and his knowledge are involved in the estimations of the MAGDM parameters. We consider an emergency decision-making model, where expert assessments on humanitarian aid from distribution centers (HADC) are represented in q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy numbers, and the data structure is described within the data body theory. Based on focal probability construction and experts’ evaluations, an objective function-distribution centers’ selection ranking index is constructed. Our approach for solving the constructed bicriteria partitioning problem consists of two phases. In the first phase, based on the covering’s matrix, we generate a matrix, the columns of which allow us to find all possible partitionings of the HADCs with the service centers. Some constraints are also taken into consideration while generating the matrix. In the second phase, based on the matrix and using our exact algorithm, we find the partitionings -allocations of the HADCs to the centers- which correspond to the Pareto-optimal solutions. For an illustration of the obtained results, a numerical example is given for the facility location-selection problem.

Keywords: emergency MAGDM, q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets, evidence theory, HADC, facility location problem, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, Pareto-optimal solutions

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Authors: Michael Williams

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The ability to control a flowing well is of the utmost important. During the kill phase, heavy weight kill mud is circulated around the well. While increasing bottom hole pressure near wellbore formation, the damage is increased. The addition of high density spherical objects has the potential to minimise this near wellbore damage, increase bottom hole pressure and reduce operational time to kill the well. This operational time saving is seen in the rapid deployment of high density spherical objects instead of building high density drilling fluid. The research aims to model the well kill process using a Computational Fluid Dynamics software. A model has been created as a proof of concept to analyse the flow of micron sized spherical objects in the drilling fluid. Initial results show that this new methodology of spherical objects in drilling fluid agrees with traditional stream lines seen in non-particle flow. Additional models have been created to demonstrate that areas of higher flow rate around the bit can lead to increased probability of wash out of formations but do not affect the flow of micron sized spherical objects. Interestingly, areas that experience dimensional changes such as tool joints and various BHA components do not appear at this initial stage to experience increased velocity or create areas of turbulent flow, which could lead to further borehole stability. In conclusion, the initial models of this novel well control methodology have not demonstrated any adverse flow patterns, which would conclude that this model may be viable under field conditions.

Keywords: well control, fluid mechanics, safety, environment

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, power system has been changed and flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system is simple in the household sector and the owner, decision-maker, can gain the benefits of power saving. On the other hand, the execution of the demand response in the office building is more complex than household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in making decisions. While the owners benefit from the demand saving, the occupants are forced to be exposed to demand-saved environment certain benefits. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually centralized control and each occupant cannot choose either participate demand response event or not, and contribution of each occupant to demand response is unclear to provide incentives. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature around him or herself. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of demand response participation in office building. This study investigates the personal behavior upon demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their task lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared between four groups which are divided by different motivation, the presence or absence of incentives and the way of participation. The result shows that there are the significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The way of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. ‘Opt-out’ group, where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they don't express non-participation, will have the highest participation rate in the four groups. The incentive has also an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports that the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective symptoms about the fatigue of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiogram

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Authors: O. O. Onafowokan, K. Anderson, M. R. Norton, R. G. Middleton

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Revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) is known to be a challenging procedure with potential for poor outcomes. Due to its lack of metaphyseal encroachment, hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA) is classified as a bone conserving procedure. Although the literature postulates that this is an advantage at time of revision surgery, there is no evidence to either support or refute this claim. We identified 129 hips that had undergone HRA and 129 controls undergoing first revision THA. We recorded the clinical assessment and survivorship of implants in a multi-surgeon, single centre, retrospective case control series for both arms. These were matched for age and sex. Data collected included demographics, indications for surgery, Oxford Hip Score (OHS), length of surgery, length of hospital stay, blood transfusion, implant complexity and further surgical procedures. Significance was taken as p < 0.05. Mean follow up was 7.5 years (1 to 15). There was a significant 6 point difference in postoperative OHS in favour of the revision resurfacing group (p=0.0001). The revision HRA group recorded 48 minutes less length of surgery (p<0.0001), 2 days less in length of hospital stay (p=0.018), a reduced need for blood transfusion (p=0.0001), a need for less complexity in revision implants (p=0.001) and a reduced probability of further surgery being required (P=0.003). Whilst we acknowledge the limitations of this study our results suggest that, in contrast to THA, the bone conservation element of HRA may make for a less traumatic revision procedure with better functional outcomes. Use of HRA has seen a dramatic decline as a result of concerns regarding metallosis. However, this information remains of relevance when counselling young active patients about their arthroplasty options and may become pertinent in the future if the promise of ceramic hip resurfacing is ever realized.

Keywords: hip resurfacing, metallosis, revision surgery, total hip arthroplasty

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Authors: Charles Klein O. Gorit, Mark Tristan J. Quimque Jr., M. Cecilia V. Almeda, Concepcion M. Salvana

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Chitosan is a promising biopolymer commonly found in crustacean shells that has plausible effects in water purification and wastewater treatment. It is a primary derivative of chitin and considered second of the most abundant biopolymer prior to cellulose. Morphological analysis had been done using Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Microscopy (SEM/EDS), and due to its porous nature, it showcases a certain degree of porosity, hence, larger adsorption site of heavy metal. The Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy of the chitosan and ‘lead-bound’ chitosan, shows a relative increase of percent abundance of lead cation from 1.44% to 2.08% hence, adsorption occurs. Chitosan, as a nitrogenous polysaccharide, subjected to Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis shows amide bands ranging from 1635.36 cm⁻¹ for amide 1 band and 1558.40 cm-1 for amide 2 band with NH stretching. For ‘lead-bound’ chitosan, the FT-IR analysis shows a change in peaks upon adsorption of Pb(II) cation. The spectrum shows broadening of OH and NH stretching band. Such observation can be attributed to the probability that the attachment of Pb(II) ions is in these functional groups. A column filter was devised with lead-bound chitosan to determine the zero point charge (pHzpc) of the biopolymer. The results show that at pH 8.34, below than the zpc level of literatures cited for lead which ranges from pH 4 to 7, favors the adsorption site of chitosan and its capability to adsorb traces amount of aqueous lead.

Keywords: chitosan, biopolymer, FT-IR, SEM, zero-point charge, heavy metal, lead ions

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Authors: Vivian Correa

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Hypothesis There are typical patterns - phenotypes - of sleep behaviors by age and biological sex groups of parasomnia patients where wearable devices could avoid injuries. Materials and methods We analyzed public video records on sleep-related behaviors likely representing parasomnias, looking for phenotypes in different groups. We searched public internet databases using the keywords “sleepwalking”, “sleep eating,” “sleep sex”, and “aggression in sleep” in six languages. Poor-quality vide-records and those showing apparently faked sleep behaviors were excluded. We classified the videos into estimated sex and age (children, adults, elderly) groups; scored the activity types by a self-made scoring scale; and applied binary logistic regression for analyzing the association between sleep behaviors versus the groups by STATA package providing 95% confidence interval and the probability of statistical significance. Results 224 videos (102 women) were analyzed. The odds of sleepwalking and related dangerous behaviors were lower in the elderly than in adults (P<0.025). Females performed complex risky behaviors during sleepwalking more often than males (P<0.012). Elderly people presented emotional behaviors less frequently than adults (P<0.004), and females showed them twice often as males. Elderly males had 40-fold odds compared to adults and children to perform aggressive movements and 70-fold odds of complex movements in the bed compared to adults. Conclusion Unlike other groups, the high chances of adults being sleepwalkers and elderly males performing intense and violent movements in bed showed us the importance of developing wearable parasomnia devices to prevent injuries.

Keywords: parasomnia, wearable devices, sleepwalking, RBD

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Authors: Mateusz Wielopolski, Asia Guerreschi

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Circular Economy, as the counterargument to the ‘make-take-dispose’ linear model, is an approach that includes a variety of schools of thought looking at environmental, economic, and social sustainability. This, in turn, leads to a variety of strategies and often confusion when it comes to choosing the right one to make a circular transition as effective as possible. Due to the close interplay of circular product design, business model and social responsibility, companies often struggle to develop strategies that comply with all three triple-bottom-line criteria. Hence, to transition to circularity effectively, product design approaches must become more inclusive. In a case study conducted with the University of Bayreuth and the ISPO, we correlated aspects of material choice in product design, labeling and technological innovation with customer preferences and education about specific material and technology features. The study revealed those attributes of the consumers’ environmental awareness that directly translate into an increase of purchase power - primarily connected with individual preferences regarding sports activity and technical knowledge. Based on this outcome, we constituted a product development approach that incorporates the consumers’ individual preferences towards sustainable product features as well as their awareness about materials and technology. It allows deploying targeted customer education campaigns to raise the willingness to pay for sustainability. Next, we implemented the customer preference and education analysis into a circularity assessment tool that takes into account inherent company assets as well as subjective parameters like customer awareness. The outcome is a detailed but not cumbersome scoring system, which provides guidance for material and technology choices for circular product design while considering business model and communication strategy to the attentive customers. By including customer knowledge and complying with corresponding labels, companies develop more effective circular design strategies, while simultaneously increasing customers’ trust and loyalty.

Keywords: circularity, sustainability, product design, material choice, education, awareness, willingness to pay

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Authors: Parisa Mansour

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Cystic fibrosis (CF) is one of the most common autosomal recessive diseases among whites. It mostly affects the lungs, causing infections and inflammation that account for 90% of deaths in CF patients. Because of this high variability in clinical presentation and organ involvement, investigating treatment responses and evaluating lung changes over time is critical to preventing CF progression. High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) greatly facilitates the assessment of lung disease progression in CF patients. Recently, artificial intelligence was used to analyze chest CT scans of CF patients. In this paper, we propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach to classify CF lung patterns in HRCT images. The proposed network consists of two convolutional layers with 3 × 3 kernels and maximally connected in each layer, followed by two dense layers with 1024 and 10 neurons, respectively. The softmax layer prepares a predicted output probability distribution between classes. This layer has three exits corresponding to the categories of normal (healthy), bronchitis and inflammation. To train and evaluate the network, we constructed a patch-based dataset extracted from more than 1100 lung HRCT slices obtained from 45 CF patients. Comparative evaluation showed the effectiveness of the proposed CNN compared to its close peers. Classification accuracy, average sensitivity and specificity of 93.64%, 93.47% and 96.61% were achieved, indicating the potential of CNNs in analyzing lung CF patterns and monitoring lung health. In addition, the visual features extracted by our proposed method can be useful for automatic measurement and finally evaluation of the severity of CF patterns in lung HRCT images.

Keywords: HRCT, CF, cystic fibrosis, chest CT, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Alexandra Telitsyna, Galina Semya, Elvira Garifulina

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Introduction: Starting from 2012 Russia conducts deinstitutionalization policy and now the main indicator of success is the number of children living in institutions. Active family placement process has resulted in residents of the institution now mainly consists of adolescents with behavioral and emotional problems, children with disabilities and groups of siblings. Purpose of science research: The purpose of science research is to identify factors for child’s wellbeing while temporary stay in an orphanage and the subjective assessment of children's level of well-being (psychological well-being). Methods: The data used for this project was collected by the questionnaire of 72 indicators, a tool for monitoring the behavior of children and caregivers, an additional questionnaire for children; well-being assessment questionnaire containing 10 scales for three age groups from preschool to older adolescents. In 2016-2018, the research was conducted in 1873 institution in 85 regions of Russia. In each region a team of academics, specialists from Non-profits, independent experts was created. Training was conducted for team members through a series of webinars prior to undertaking the assessment. The results: To ensure the well-being of the children, the following conditions are necessary: 1- Life of children in institution is organised according to the principles of family care (including the creation of conditions for attachment to be formed); 2- Contribution to find family-based placement for children (including reintegration into the primary family); 3- Work with parents of children, who are placed in an organization at the request of parents; 4- Children attend schools according to their needs; 5- Training of staff and volunteers; 6- Special environment and services for children with special needs and children with disabilities; 7- Cooperation with NGOs; 8 - Openness and accessibility of the organization. Conclusion: A study of the psychological well-being of children showed that the most emotionally stressful for children were questions about the presence and frequency of contact with relatives, and the level of well-being is higher in the presence of a trusted adult and respect for rights. The greatest contribution to the trouble is made by the time the child is in the orphanage, the lack of contact with parents and relatives, the uncertainty of the future.

Keywords: identifying factors, orphans, Russia, wellbeing

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Authors: Gyula I. Tóth, Shaho Abdalla

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Even though numerical simulations indeed have a significant precursory/supportive role in exploring the disordered phase displaying no long-range order in pattern formation models, studying the stability properties of this phase and determining the order of the ordered-disordered phase transition in these models necessitate an analytical description of the disordered phase. First, we will present the results of a comprehensive statistical analysis of a large number (1,000-10,000) of numerical simulations in the Swift-Hohenberg model, where the bulk disordered (or amorphous) phase is stable. We will show that the average free energy density (over configurations) converges, while the variance of the energy density vanishes with increasing system size in numerical simulations, which suggest that the disordered phase is a thermodynamic phase (i.e., its properties are independent of the configuration in the macroscopic limit). Furthermore, the structural analysis of this phase in the Fourier space suggests that the phase can be modeled by a colored isotropic Gaussian noise, where any instant of the noise describes a possible configuration. Based on these results, we developed the general mathematical framework of finding a pool of solutions to partial differential equations in the sense of continuous probability measure, which we will present briefly. Applying the general idea to the Swift-Hohenberg model we show, that the amorphous phase can be found, and its properties can be determined analytically. As the general mathematical framework is not restricted to continuum theories, we hope that the proposed methodology will open a new chapter in studying disordered phases.

Keywords: fundamental theory, mathematical physics, continuum models, analytical description

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Authors: Banu Hatice Gürcüm, Pınar Arslan, Mahmut Yalçın

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Fashion designers create lots of dresses, suits, shoes, and other clothing and accessories, which are purchased every year by consumers. Fashion trends, sketches of designs, accessories affect the apparel goods, but colors make the finishing touches to an outfit. In all fields of apparel men's, women's, and children's wear, including casual wear, suits, sportswear, formal wear, outerwear, maternity, and intimate apparel, color sells. Thus, specialization in color in apparel is a basic concern each season. The perception of color is the key to sales for every sector in textile business. Mechanism of color perception, cognition in brain and color emotion are unique subjects, which scientists have been investigating for many years. The parameters of color may not be corresponding to visual scales since human emotions induced by color are completely subjective. However, with a very few exception each manufacturer concern their top selling colors for each season through seasonal sales reports of apparel companies. This paper examines sensory and instrumental methods for quantifying color of fabrics and investigates the relationship between fabric color and sale numbers. 5 top selling colors for each season from 10 leading apparel companies in the same segment are taken. The compilation is based according to the sales of the companies for 5 to 10 years. The research’s main concern is the corelation with the magnitude of seasonal color selling figures and the CIE chromaticity coordinates. The colors are chosen from the globally accepted Pantone Textile Color System and the three-dimentional measurement system CIE L*a*b* (CIELAB) is used, L* representing the degree of lightness of color, a* the degree of color ranging from magenta to green, and b* the degree of color ranging from blue to yellow. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of relating color perceptance to a laboratory instrument yielding measurements in the CIELAB system. Our approach is to obtain a total of a hundred reference fabrics to be measured on a laboratory spectrophotometer calibrated to the CIELAB color system. Relationships between the CIE tristimulus (X, Y, Z) and CIELAB (L*, a*, b*) are examined and are reported herein.

Keywords: CIELAB, CIE tristimulus, color preference, fashion

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Clementina Ebere Okoro, Olumuyiwa Adeyemi Owolabi, Doris Bola James, Aloysius Nwabugo Maduforo, Andrew Lingililani Mbewe, Christopher Osaruwanmwen Isokpunwu

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Poor dietary practices and malnutrition, including severe acute malnutrition among under-five children in Nigeria has remained a great public health concern. This study assessed infant and young child feeding practices and nutritional status of under-five children to determine the prevalence of malnutrition of under-five children in Kuje area council, Abuja. The study was a cross-sectional study. Multi-stage sampling techniques was used in selecting the population that was studied. Probability proportion by size was applied in choosing 30 clusters for the survey using ENA for SMART software 2011 version. Questionnaires were used to obtain information from the population, while appropriate equipment was used for measurements of anthropometric parameters. The data was also subjected to statistical analysis. Results were presented in tables and figures. The result showed that 96.7% of the children were breastfed, 30.6% had early initiation to breastfeeding within first hour of birth and 22.4% were breastfed exclusively up to 6 months, 69.8% fed infants’ colostrum, while 30.2% discarded colostrum. About half of the respondents (49.1%) introduced complementary feeding before six months and 23.2% introduced it after six months while 27.7% had age appropriate timely introduction of complementary feeding. The anthropometric result showed that the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) was 12.8%, severe wasting prevalence was 5.4%, moderate wasting was 7.4%, underweight was 24.4%, stunting was 40.3% and overweight was 7.0%. The result showed that there is a high prevalence of malnutrition among under-five children in Kuje

Keywords: malnutrition, under five children, breastfeeding, complementary feeding

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Farzan Farhangian, Behnam Shakibafar, Bobda Cedric, Rene Jr. Landry

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Among the air navigation technologies, many of them are capable of increasing aviation sustainability as well as accuracy improvement in Alternative Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (APNT), especially avionics Distance Measuring Equipment (DME), Very high-frequency Omni-directional Range (VOR), etc. The integration of these air navigation solutions could make a robust and efficient accuracy in air mobility, air traffic management and autonomous operations. Designing a proper RF front-end, power amplifier and software-defined transponder could pave the way for reaching an optimized avionics navigation solution. In this article, the possibility of reaching an optimum front-end to be used with single low-cost Software-Defined Radio (SDR) has been investigated in order to reach a software-defined DME architecture. Our software-defined approach uses the firmware possibilities to design a real-time software architecture compatible with a Multi Input Multi Output (MIMO) BladeRF to estimate an accurate time delay between a Transmission (Tx) and the reception (Rx) channels using the synchronous scheduled communication. We could design a novel power amplifier for the transmission channel of the DME to pass the minimum transmission power. This article also investigates designing proper pair pulses based on the DO-178B avionics standard. Various guidelines have been tested, and the possibility of passing the certification process for each standard term has been analyzed. Finally, the performance of the DME was tested in the laboratory environment using an IFR6000, which showed that the proposed architecture reached an accuracy of less than 0.23 Nautical mile (Nmi) with 98% probability.

Keywords: avionics, DME, software defined radio, navigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Mary Therese G. Caluna, Mark Justin B. Campanero, Erlin Maris T. Cantiller, Claudine Mae A. Cantillo, Nerissa L. Caño

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Objective: The study determined the effectiveness of cold tomato paste in relieving pain caused by exacerbation of arthritis in the elderly, specifically on clients 60 years old and above. The study focused on alternative, cost-effective and non-pharmacological techniques in relieving pain experienced by the older people with osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis. Methods: Using purposive non-probability sampling, the researchers gathered a total number of 40 subjects that passed the inclusion criteria provided by the researchers. The subjects were divided into two groups, experimental group (20 subjects) and control groups (20 subjects). The Numeric Rating 11-point Scale (NRS-11) was utilized to assess the pain level of the subject prior the application of the treatment and after the application of the treatment. Key findings: There is a significant difference in the pain levels of the experimental group before and after the application of cold tomato paste. This indicates that that the application of cold tomato paste alleviates the pain experienced by elderly clients with exacerbation of arthritis. Conclusion: The effectiveness of cold tomato paste in relieving pain experienced by elderly clients who are in exacerbation of arthritis was proven to be evidence-based. The cold tomato paste application has significant impact in the field of nursing and therefore, can be used in both clinical trials and practices. The effectiveness of cold tomato application promotes innovation in the field of nursing, thus encouraging further researches regarding other uses of tomato and other herbal interventions to relieve the pain caused by osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis.

Keywords: alternative therapy, arthritis, cold tomato paste, elderly clients, exacerbation

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: Pakinee Pooprasert, Wanxin Wang, Tina Parmar, Dana Ahnood, Tafadzwa Young-Zvandasara, James Morgan

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Homelessness has been shown to be correlated to poor health outcomes, including increased visual health morbidity. Despite this, there are relatively few studies regarding visual health in the homeless population, especially in the UK. This research aims to investigate visual disability and access barriers prevalent in the homeless population in Cardiff, South Wales. Data was collected from 100 homeless participants in three different shelters. Visual outcomes included near and distance visual acuity as well as non-cycloplegic refraction. Qualitative data was collected via a questionnaire and included socio-demographic profile, ocular history, subjective visual acuity and level of access to healthcare facilities. Based on the participants’ presenting visual acuity, the total prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 17.0% and 19.0% respectively based on spherical equivalent from the eye with the greatest absolute value. The prevalence of astigmatism was 8.0%. The mean absolute spherical equivalent was 0.841D and 0.853D for right and left eye respectively. The number of participants with sight loss (as defined by VA= 6/12-6/60 in the better-seeing eye) was 27.0% in comparison to 0.89% and 1.1% in the general Cardiff and Wales population respectively (p-value is < 0.05). Additionally, 1.0% of the homeless subjects were registered blind (VA less than 3/60), in comparison to 0.17% for the national consensus after age standardization. Most participants had good knowledge regarding access to prescription glasses and eye examination services. Despite this, 85.0% never had their eyes examined by a doctor and 73.0% had their last optometrist appointment in more than 5 years. These findings suggested that there was a significant disparity in ocular health, including visual acuity and refractive error amongst the homeless in comparison to the general population. Further, the homeless were less likely to receive the same level of support and continued care in the community due to access barriers. These included a number of socio-economic factors such as travel expenses and regional availability of services, as well as administrative shortcomings. In conclusion, this research demonstrated unmet visual health needs within the homeless, and that inclusive policy changes may need to be implemented for better healthcare outcomes within this marginalized community.

Keywords: homelessness, refractive error, visual disability, Wales

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Bahador Bardshiri, Omid Moradi, Amir Komeilian, Nima Panahifar

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Formation of a conjunctival membrane over the corneal surface is a condition unique to rabbits that has been labeled aberrant corneal occlusion or pseudopterygium. In the summer of 2013, a five years old male Standard Chinchilla rabbit were presented to Karaj Central Veterinary hospital and the owner complained that his rabbit shows degrees of blindness and there were opacities on both eyes of the presented rabbit. Ophthalmic examination of the affected eyes revealed a conjunctival fold stretching over the cornea of both eyes. The fold originated from limbus and it was vascularized and centrally thickened. There were no attachments to the corneal epithelium and the fold could be easily lifted. Surgery was performed under general anesthesia. The conjunctival fold was incised centrifugally up to its attachment at the limbus and the lid margin using small scissors. The central rim of the segment was then replaced to its normal position in the fornix and fixed with mattress sutures (7/0) passing through outside skin. After the surgery, eye drops containing dexamethasone, gentamicin and polymixin were applied twice daily up to 3 weeks. Within the observation period (8 months) no recurrence was noted. "Pseudo" in the term pseudopterygium refers to the fact that the conjunctival membrane is not adhering to the underlying cornea, but growing over it. In rare cases, the membrane may be loosely attached to the cornea, but can be easily separated without causing damage. It can cover only a small part of the cornea with an annular peripheral opacification of the cornea, or cover it almost fully, leading to blindness. Ethiopathogenesis remains unclear and recurrence of the problem is very likely. The surgical technique that used here decreases probability of recurrence of conjunctival fold.

Keywords: rabbit, cornea, aberrant corneal occlusion, pseudopterygium

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Nor Azlina A. Rahman, Jamaliah Said, Salwana Hassan

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Prompt changes in global business environment, such as passionate competition, managerial/operational, changing governmental regulation and innovation in technology have significant impacts on the organizations. At present, global business environment demands for more proactive institutions on microfinance to provide an opportunity for the business success. Microfinance providers in Malaysia still accelerate its activities of funding by cash and cheque. These institutions are at high risk as the paper-based system is deemed to be slow and prone to human error, as well as requiring a major annual reconciliation process. The global transformation of financial services, growing involvement of technology, innovation and new business activities had progressively made risk management profile to be more subjective and diversified. The persistent, complex and dynamic nature of risk management activities in the institutions arise due to highly automated advancements of technology. This may thus manifest in a variety of ways throughout the financial services sector. This study seeks out to examine current operational risks management being experienced by microfinance providers in Malaysia; investigate the process of current practices on facilitator control factor mechanisms, and explore how the adoption of technology, innovation and use of management accounting practices would affect the risk management process of operation system in microfinance providers in Malaysia. A case study method was employed in this study. The case study also need to find that the vital past role of management accounting will be used for mitigation of risk management activities towards accountability as an information or guideline to microfinance provider. An empirical element obtainable with qualitative method is needed in this study, where multipart and in-depth information are essential to understand the issues of these institution phenomena. This study is expected to propose a theoretical model for implementation of technology, innovation and management accounting practices into the system of operation to improve internal control and subsequently lead to mitigation of risk management activities among microfinance providers to be more successful.

Keywords: microfinance, accountability, operational risks, management accounting practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 429