Search results for: risk based inspection

Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

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In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

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Authors: Vicent Lwanga

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Issue: Communication between parent and child is important and necessary. Poor parenting and lack of openness and communication between parents and their children contribute to the increasing rate of HIV infection among young persons between the ages of 10-25. The young person, when left on their own are at the risk of misinformation from peers and from other sources. Description: Parent-Child Communication (PCC) was designed as a key component of a community-based HIV and AIDS intervention focused on young persons by Elderly Widows Orphans Family Support Organisation. Findings from the preliminary community-level process indicated that the lack of parent-child communication militates against young persons adopting and maintaining healthier sexual behaviors. An integrated youth strategy consisting of youth Peer Education/Facilitation and PCC was used to bridge this gap. The process involved an interactive parent-child forum, which allowed parents and children to meet and have open and frank discussions on the needs of young persons and the role of parents. This forum addressed all emerging issues from all parties and created better cordiality amongst them. Lessons Learnt: When young people feel unconnected to their parents, family, or home, they may become involved in activities that put their health at risk. Equally, when parents affirm the value of their children through open interaction, children are more likely to develop positive and healthy attitudes about themselves. Creating the opportunity for this interactive forum is paramount in any intervention program focused on young persons. Conclusion: HIV and AIDS-related programmes, especially those focusing on youth, should have PCC as an integral, essential component. Parents should be vehicles for information dissemination and need to be equipped with the capacity and skills to take on the onerous task of talking sexual reproductive health and sexuality with their children and wards.

Keywords: aids, communication, HIV, youth

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Authors: Snigdha Sahai, Devaki Chikkavenkatappa Yellappa

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This study outlines approaches for testing and validating stochastic models used in epidemiology, focusing on the integration and functional testing of simulation code. It details methods for combining simple functions into comprehensive simulations, distinguishing between deterministic and stochastic components, and applying tests to ensure robustness. Techniques include isolating stochastic elements, utilizing large sample sizes for validation, and handling special cases. Practical examples are provided using R code to demonstrate integration testing, handling of incorrect inputs, and special cases. The study emphasizes the importance of both functional and defensive programming to enhance code reliability and user-friendliness.

Keywords: computational epidemiology, epidemiology, public health, infectious disease modeling, statistical analysis, health data analysis, disease transmission dynamics, predictive modeling in health, population health modeling, quantitative public health, random sampling simulations, randomized numerical analysis, simulation-based analysis, variance-based simulations, algorithmic disease simulation, computational public health strategies, epidemiological surveillance, disease pattern analysis, epidemic risk assessment, population-based health strategies, preventive healthcare models, infection dynamics in populations, contagion spread prediction models, survival analysis techniques, epidemiological data mining, host-pathogen interaction models, risk assessment algorithms for disease spread, decision-support systems in epidemiology, macro-level health impact simulations, socioeconomic determinants in disease spread, data-driven decision making in public health, quantitative impact assessment of health policies, biostatistical methods in population health, probability-driven health outcome predictions

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Authors: Mohd Izzat Md. Nor, Norfazlina Jaffar, Noor Zaitulakma Md. Zain, Nur Izyanti Mohd Suppian, Subhashini Balakrishnan, Geetha Kandavello

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During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Malaysia has been focusing on building herd immunity by introducing vaccination programs into the community. Hospital Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) were developed to prevent inpatient transmission. Objective: In this study, we focus on the positivity rate of inpatient Person Under Surveillance (PUS) becoming COVID-19 positive and compare this to the National rate in order to see the outcomes of the patient who becomes COVID-19 positive in relation to their vaccination status. Methodology: This is a retrospective observational study carried out from 1 January until 30 March 2022 in Institut Jantung Negara (IJN). There were 5,255 patients admitted during the time of this study. Pre-admission Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) swab was done for all patients. Patients with positive PCR on pre-admission screening were excluded. The patient who had exposure to COVID-19-positive staff or patients during hospitalization was defined as PUS and were quarantined and monitored for potential COVID-19 infection. Their frequency and risk of exposure (WHO definition) were recorded. A repeat PCR swab was done for PUS patients that have clinical deterioration with or without COVID symptoms and on their last day of quarantine. The severity of COVID-19 infection was defined as category 1-5A. All patients' vaccination status was recorded, and they were divided into three groups: fully immunised, partially immunised, and unvaccinated. We analyzed the positivity rate of PUS patients becoming COVID-positive, outcomes, and correlation with the vaccination status. Result: Total inpatient PUS to patients and staff was 492; only 13 became positive, giving a positivity rate of 2.6%. Eight (62%) had multiple exposures. The majority, 8/13(72.7%), had a high-risk exposure, and the remaining 5 had medium-risk exposure. Four (30.8%) were boostered, 7(53.8%) were fully vaccinated, and 2(15.4%) were partial/unvaccinated. Eight patients were in categories 1-2, whilst 38% were in categories 3-5. Vaccination status did not correlate with COVID-19 Category (P=0.641). One (7.7%) patient died due to COVID-19 complications and sepsis. Conclusion: Within the first quarter of 2022, our institution's positivity rate (2.6%) is significantly lower than the country's (14.4%). High-risk exposure and multiple exposures to positive COVID-19 cases increased the risk of PUS becoming COVID-19 positive despite their underlying vaccination status.

Keywords: COVID-19, boostered, high risk, Malaysia, quarantine, vaccination status

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Authors: Lukman Ahmad Jamil, Heather M. Wallace

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Introduction: Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a positive as well as negative association and no association in some cases between chronic use of calcium channel blockers and the increased risk of developing cancer. However, these associations were enmeshed with controversies in the absence of laboratory based studies to back up those claims. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine in mechanistic terms the association between the long-term administration of nifedipine and diltiazem and increased risk of developing cancer using the human embryonic kidney (HEK293) cell line. Methods: Cell counting using the Trypan blue dye exclusion and 3-4, 5-Dimethylthiazol-2-yl-2, 5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assays were used to investigate the effect of nifedipine and diltiazem on the growth pattern of HEK293 cells. Protein assay using modified Lowry method and analysis of intracellular polyamines concentration using Liquid Chromatography – Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS) were performed to ascertain the mechanism through which chronic use of nifedipine increases the risk of developing cancer. Results: Both nifedipine and diltiazem significantly increased the proliferation of HEK293 cells dose and time dependently. This proliferative effect after 24, 48 and 72-hour incubation period was observed at 0.78, 1.56 and 25 µM for nifedipine and 0.39, 1.56 and 25 µM for diltiazem, respectively. The increased proliferation of the cells was found to be statistically significantly (p<0.05). Furthermore, the increased proliferation of the cells induced by nifedipine was associated with the increase in the protein content and elevated intracellular polyamines concentration level. Conclusion: The chronic use of nifedipine is associated with increased proliferation of cells with concomitant elevation of polyamines concentration and elevated polyamine levels have been implicated in many malignant transformations and hence, these provide a possible explanation on the link between long term use of nifedipine and development of some human cancers. Further studies are needed to evaluate the cause of this association.

Keywords: cancer, nifedipine, polyamine, proliferation

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Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

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Authors: Mkhokheli Sithole, Brenda N. Muchapondwa

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Food security is becoming a critical issue for people residing mainly in the rural areas where frequent droughts interrupt food production, reduce income, compromise the ability to save and erode livelihoods. This tends to increase the vulnerability of poor households to food and income insecurity, hence, malnutrition. There is an emerging need for DRR strategies to complement the existing rain fed crop production based livelihoods. One of such strategies employed by the community of Nerumedzo in Bikita district is the harvesting of Encosternum delegorguei insect. This article analyses the livelihood impacts of Encosternum delegorguei insect as a DRR strategy. The research used a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The insect samples were tested in the laboratory for their nutritional composition while surveys were done on a sample of 40 community members. Participatory observations and 5 focus group discussions were also done. The results revealed that harvesting the Encosternum delegorguei insects provides a livelihood for the locals by complementing crop production thereby mitigating potential negative effects of frequent droughts. The insects are now a significant source of income to poor households in the community.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, human, social sciences

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Authors: Pooja Pandey

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The role of communication plays an integral part in the management of any disaster, whether natural or human-induced, both require effective and strategic delivery of information. The way any information is conveyed carries the most weight while dealing with the disaster. Hence, integrating communication strategies in disaster risk management (DRM) are extensively acknowledged however, these integration and planning are missing from the practical books. Researchers are continuously exploring integrated DRM and have established substantial vents between research and implementation of the strategies (gaps between science and policy). For this reason, this paper reviews the communication barriers that obstruct effective management of the disaster. Communication between first responders (government agencies, police, medical services) and the public (people directly affected by the disaster) is most critical and lacks proper delivery during a disaster. And these challenges can only be resolved if the foundation of the problem is properly dealt with, which is resolving the issues within the organizations. Through this study, it was found that it is necessary to build the communication gap between the organizations themselves as most of the hindrances occur during the mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery phase of the disaster. The study is concluded with the main aim to review the communication barriers within and at the organizational, technological, and social levels that impact effective DRM. In the end, some suggestions are made to strengthen the knowledge for future improvement in communication between the responders and their organizations.

Keywords: communication, organization, barriers, first responders, disaster risk management

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Authors: Smail Chafaa, Abdelkrim Si Bachir

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Our work aims to study the insect diversity based on bioclimatic levels of pests in olive cultures (Olea europea L.) in the area of Batna (arid and semi arid north eastern Algeria) during the period from January 2011 to May 2011. Several sampling techniques were used, those of hunting on sight, visual inspection, hatches traps, colored traps, Japanese umbrella and sweep net. We have identified in total, 2311 individuals with results in inventory 206 species divided to 74 families and 11 orders, including Coleoptera order is quantitatively the most represented with 47.1%. The most dominant diet in our inventory is the phytophagous. Between the herbivorous insects that we have listed and which are the main olive pest of olive cultivation; we quote the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae), cochineal purple olive (Parlatoria oleae) the psyllid olive (Euphyllura olivina) and olive Trips (Liothrips oleae). The distribution of species between stations shows that Boumia resort with the most number of species (113) compared to other resorts and beetles are also better represented in three groves. Total wealth is high in Boumia station compared with the others stations. The values of (H') exceeding 3.9 bits for all the stations studied indicate a specific wealth and diversity of ecological nests in insect species. The values of equitability are near the unit; that suggests a balance between the numbers of insect populations sampled in the various stations.

Keywords: entomology, olive, grove, batna, Algeria

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Authors: Phil P. Wagner

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There is an overwhelming amount of athlete-centric information available for sport practitioners in this era of tech and big data, but protocols in athletic rehabilitation remain arbitrary. It is a common assumption that the rate at which tissue heals amongst individuals is the same; yielding protocols that are entirely time-based. Progressing athletes through rehab programs that lack individualization can potentially expose athletes to stimuli they are not prepared for or unnecessarily lengthen their recovery period. A 7-year aggregated and anonymous database was used to develop reliable and valid assessments to measure athletic resilience. Each assessment utilizes force plate technology with proprietary protocols and analysis to provide key thresholds for injury risk and recovery. Using a T score to analyze movement qualities, much like the Z score used for bone density from a Dexa scan, specific prescriptions are provided to mitigate the athlete’s inherent injury risk. In addition to obliging to surgical clearance, practitioners must put in place a clearance protocol guided by standardized assessments and achievement in strength thresholds. In order to truly hold individuals accountable (practitioners, athletic trainers, performance coaches, etc.), success in improving pre-defined key performance indicators must be frequently assessed and analyzed.

Keywords: analytics, athlete rehabilitation, athlete resilience, injury prediction, injury prevention

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Authors: Renaud Gaucher

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Research on happiness has developed significantly in the past fifty years and economics and the political science are starting to be influenced by advances in the field. Until recently, finance has stayed outside this movement. The goal of our research is to integrate finance into this movement conceptually. We explain the why, the what and the how of the finance of happiness. We then study the relationship between corporate finance and happiness. We discuss the optimization of the relationship between the financial performance of a firm and the happiness at work of its employees, and the reduction of financial risk by developing goods that foster the happiness of their users. Finally we look at the development of happiness investment funds, that is investment funds founded on happiness research, and the best ways to share risks and earnings to build a happier society.

Keywords: finance, happiness, investment fund, risk

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Authors: Mengying Wang, Dongjing Liu, Holger Schwender, Ping Wang, Hongping Zhu, Tao Wu, Terri H Beaty

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Background: Maternal smoking is a recognized risk factor for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P). It has been reported that the effect of maternal smoking on oral clefts is mediated through genes that influence nicotine dependence. The polymorphisms of cholinergic receptor nicotinic alpha (CHRNA) and beta (CHRNB) subunits genes have previously shown strong associations with nicotine dependence. Here, we attempted to investigate whether the above genes are associated with clefting risk through testing for potential gene-gene (G×G) and gene-environment (G×E) interaction. Methods: We selected 120 markers in 14 genes associated with nicotine dependence to conduct transmission disequilibrium tests among 806 Chinese NSCL/P case-parent trios ascertained in an international consortium which conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of oral clefts. We applied Cordell’s method using “TRIO” package in R to explore G×G as well as G×E interaction involving environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) based on conditional logistic regression model. Results: while no SNP showed significant association with NSCL/P after Bonferroni correction, we found signals for G×G interaction between 10 pairs of SNPs in CHRNA3, CHRNA5, and CHRNB4 (p<10-8), among which the most significant interaction was found between RS3743077 (CHRNA3) and RS11636753 (CHRNB4, p<8.2×10-12). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed only low level of LD between these markers. However, there were no significant results for G×ETS interaction. Conclusion: This study fails to detect association between nicotine dependence genes and NSCL/P, but illustrates the importance of taking into account potential G×G interaction for genetic association analysis in NSCL/P. This study also suggests nicotine dependence genes should be considered as important candidate genes for NSCL/P in future studies.

Keywords: Gene-Gene Interaction, Maternal Smoking, Nicotine Dependence, Non-Syndromic Cleft Lip with or without Cleft Palate

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Authors: Prachi Choudhary, Jai Gopal Sharma

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Microbial cultures determine the type of organism, its abundance in the tested sample, or both. It is one of the primary diagnostic methods of microbiology. It is used to determine the cause of infectious disease by letting the agent multiply in a predetermined medium. Different bacteria produce colonies that may be very distinct from the bacterial species that produced them. To culture any pathogen or microorganism, we should first know about the types of media used in microbiology for culturing. Sometimes sub culturing is also done in various microorganisms if some mixed growth is seen in culture. Nearly 3 types of culture media based on consistency – solid, semi-solid, and liquid (broth) media; are further explained in the report. Then, The Five I's approach is a method for locating, growing, observing, and characterizing microorganisms, including inoculation and incubation. Isolation, inspection, and identification. For identification of bacteria, we have to culture the sample like urine, sputum, blood, etc., on suitable media; there are different methods of culturing the bacteria or microbe like pour plate method, streak plate method, swabbing by needle, pipetting, inoculation by loop, spreading by spreader, etc. After this, we see the bacterial growth after incubation of 24 hours, then according to the growth of bacteria antibiotics susceptibility test is conducted; this is done for sensitive antibiotics or resistance to that bacteria, and also for knowing the name of bacteria. Various methods like the dilution method, disk diffusion method, E test, etc., do antibiotics susceptibility tests. After that, various medicines are provided to the patients according to antibiotic sensitivity and resistance.

Keywords: inoculation, incubation, isolation, antibiotics suspectibility test, characterizing

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Authors: Singh Baljinder, Sharma Navneet

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Microalbuminuria is the earliest detectable marker of diabetic nephropathy. We planned to evaluate the prevalence of microalbuminuria in type 1 diabetics and correlate with various risk factor. We randomly selected 100 type 1 diabetic patients after inclusion and exclusion criteria from DCRC, S. P. Medical College, Bikaner. Clinical examinations for anthropometeric parameters, hypertension, retinopathy, glycaemic status, lipid profile were done and microalbuminuria was estimated by micral test. Microalbuminuria was seen in 38% patients. The mean urinary albumin concentration was 96.61 mg/l in microalbuminuria positive cases, 134 mg/L in hypertensive patients while 74.5 mg/L in normal patients. Mean diabetic duration was 6.43 years in microalbuminurics. Albumin excretion increased significantly with age at onset of 10-18 years and declined thereafter. Microalbuminuria cases exhibited mean cholesterol 181.63 mg%, TG 130.94 mg%, LDL 109.87 mg%, HDL 57.5 mg% and VLDL 30.64 mg%. Mean urinary albumin concentration in patients with retinopathy was 160.52 mg/L while 78.66 mg/L without retinopathy. In multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis, a strong positive association was seen between microalbuminuria and hypertension (OR=5.087, CI=2.1319-12.101), fasting blood sugar (OR=3. 491, CI=1.138-10.70), duration of diabetes (OR=3.41, CI=1.360-8.55) and HbA1c (OR=2.381, CI-=1.1-5.64). The present study indicates that microalbuminuria is a common complication of type 1 diabetes mellitus and can be prevented by careful management of risk factors.

Keywords: type 1 diabetes, microalbuminuria, diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy, hypertension

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Daily, many individuals die or get harmed on streets around the globe, which requires more particular solutions for transport safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) is one of the models that are considering many variables which influence road user’s safety. In iRAP, roads have been partitioned into five-star ratings from 1 star (the most reduced level) to 5 star (the most noteworthy level). These levels are calculated from risk factors which represent the effect of the geometric and traffic conditions on rod safety. The result of iRAP philosophy are the countermeasures that can be utilized to enhance safety levels and lessen fatalities numbers. These countermeasures can be utilized independently as a single treatment or in combination with other countermeasures for a section or an entire road. There is a general understanding that the efficiency of a countermeasure is liable to reduction when it is used in combination with various countermeasures. That is, crash diminishment estimations of single countermeasures cannot be summed easily. In the iRAP model, the fatalities estimations are calculated using a specific methodology. However, this methodology suffers overestimations. Therefore, this study has developed a calibration method to estimate fatalities numbers more accurately.

Keywords: crash risk factors, international road assessment program, low-income countries, road safety

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Authors: S. Tokuomi, K. Mori, Y. Tsuruzono

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A concrete-wall-climbing testing robot, has been developed. This robot adheres and climbs concrete walls using two sets of suction cups, as well as being able to rotate by the use of the alternating motion of the suction cups. The maximum climbing speed is about 60 cm/min. Each suction cup has a pressure sensor, which monitors the adhesion of each suction cup. The impact acoustic method is used in testing concrete walls. This robot has an impact acoustic device and four microphones for the acquisition of the impact sound. The effectiveness of the impact acoustic system was tested by applying it to an inspection of specimens with artificial circular void defects. A circular void defect with a diameter of 200 mm at a depth of 50 mm was able to be detected. The weight and the dimensions of the robot are about 17 kg and 1.0 m by 1.3 m, respectively. The upper limit of testing is about 10 m above the ground due to the length of the power cable.

Keywords: concrete wall, nondestructive testing, climbing robot, impact acoustic method

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Authors: Karlygash Tulendieva

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Presently vaccination is the most effective method of prevention of flu and its complications. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the increase of coverage of the population of South Kazakhstan region with flu vaccination and decrease of the ARVI morbidity. The analysis was performed on the data of flu vaccination of risk groups, including children under one year and pregnant women. Data on ARVI morbidity during 2010-2015 and data on vaccination were taken from the reports of the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit of Department of Consumers’ Rights Protection of South Kazakhstan region. Coverage with flu vaccination of the risk groups was annually increasing and in 2015 it reached 16% (450,000/2,800,682) from the total population. The ARVI morbidity rate in the entire population in 2010 was 2,010.4 per 100,000 of the population and decreased 3.2 times to 609.9 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Annual growth was observed from 2010 to 2015 of specific weight of the vaccinated main risk groups: healthcare workers by 51% (from 17,331 in 2010 to 33,538 in 2015), children with chronic pulmonary and cardio-vascular diseases, immune deficiency, weak and sickly children above six months by 39% (from 63,122 in 2010 to 158,023 in 2015), adults with chronic co-morbidities by 27% (from 44,271 in 2010 to 162,595 in 2015), persons above 65 by 17% (from 10,276 in 2010 to 57,875 in 2015), and annual coverage of pregnant women on second or third trimester from 34,443 in 2010 to 37,969 in 2015. Starting from 2013 and until 2015 vaccination was performed in the region with coverage of at least 90% of children from 6 months to one year. The ARVI morbidity in this age group decreased 3.3 times from 8,687.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2010 to 2,585.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Vaccination of pregnant women on 2-3 trimester was started in the region in 2012. Annual increase of vaccination coverage of pregnant women from 86.1% (34,443/40,000) in 2012 to 95% (37,969/40,000) in 2015 decreased the morbidity 1.5 times from 4,828.8 per 100,000 of population in 2012 to 3,022.7 per 100,000 of population in 2015. Following the increase of vaccination coverage of the population in South Kazakhstan region, the trend was observed of decrease of ARVI morbidity rates among the population and main risk groups, among pregnant women and children under one year.

Keywords: acute respiratory viral infections, flu, risk groups, vaccination

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Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

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Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Shlomit Cohen, Sigal Portnoy

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This work focuses on posture and risk factors for the musculoskeletal disorder in guitarists, which constitutes the largest group of musicians today. The source of the problems experienced by these musicians is linked to physical, psychosocial and personal risk factors. These muscular problems are referred to as Playing Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (PRMD). There is not enough research that specifically studies guitar players, and to the extent of our knowledge, there is almost no reference to the characteristics of their movement patterns while they play. This is in spite of the high prevalence of PRMD in this population. Kinematic research may provide a basis for the development of a prevention plan for this population and their unique characteristics of playing patterns. The aim of the study was to investigate the correlation between risk factors for PRMD among guitar players and self-reporting of pain in the skeletal muscles, and specifically to test whether there are differences in the kinematics of the upper body while playing in a sitting or standing posture. Twenty-five guitarists, aged 18-35, participated in the study. The methods included a motion analysis using a motion capture system, anthropometric measurements and questionnaires relating to risk factors. The questionnaires used were the Standardized Nordic Questionnaire for the Analysis of Musculoskeletal Symptoms and the Demand Control Support Questionnaire, as well as a questionnaire of personal details. All of the study participants complained of musculoskeletal pain in the past year; the most frequent complaints being in the left wrist. Statistically significant correlations were found between biodemographic indices and reports of pain in the past year and the previous week. No significant correlations were found between the physical posture while playing and reports of pain among professional guitarists. However, a difference was found in several kinematic parameters between seated and standing playing postures. In a majority of the joints, the joint angles while playing in a seated position were more extreme than those during standing. This finding may suggest a higher risk for musculoskeletal disorder while playing in a seated position. In conclusion, the results of the present research highlight the prevalence of musculoskeletal problems in guitar players and its correlation with various risk factors. The finding supports the need for intervention in the form of prevention through identifying the risk factors and addressing them. Relating to the person, to their occupation and environment, which are the basis of proper occupational therapy, can help meet this need.

Keywords: body posture, motion tracking, PRMD, guitarists

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Authors: Zahra Solgi, Hossein Rassi

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a multi-step disease, and chronic gastric infection with H. pylori could play a role in one or more of the steps in this pathogenic process. Polymorphisms in several miRNAs are considered to increase the risk for the development of CRC by controlling proliferation, apoptosis and H. pylori pathogenesis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate miRNA146a rs2910164 polymorphism and Helicobacter pylori infection in CRC. A total of 65 patients with CRC were divided into 2 groups: 28 patients < 50 years of age and 37 patients ≥ 50 years of age. DNA was extracted from all samples by a standard method and H. pylori cagA and miRNA146a rs2910164 genotypes were determined by PCR method. The results show that there was no significant difference in the frequency of H. pylori cagA gene between the two groups but there was a significant difference in the distribution of rs2910164 genotypes in patients < 50 years of age with the p-value of 0.05 and odds ratio equal to 2.69. On other hand, patients < 50 years of age with genotype CC of miRNA146a showed a significant difference in CRC risk. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation between rs2910164 CC genotype with Helicobacter pylori infection in patients < 50 years of age. The present study suggests that the CC genotype of miRNA146a in combination with H. pylori infection can be effective as risk factors and molecular markers for early diagnosis and treatment of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, Helicobacter pylori, miRNA146a, rs2910164 polymorphism

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Authors: Claire Norman-Maillet

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Insider fraud, otherwise known as occupational, employee, or internal fraud, is a financial crime threat. Perpetrated by defrauding (or attempting to defraud) one’s current, prospective, or past employer, an ‘employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including board members and contractors. The Coronavirus pandemic has forced insider fraud into the spotlight, and it isn’t dimming. As the focus of most academics and practitioners has historically been on that of ‘external fraud’, insider fraud is often overlooked or not considered to be a real threat. However, since COVID-19 changed the working world, pushing most of us into remote or hybrid working, employers cannot easily keep an eye on what their staff are doing, which has led to reliance on trust and transparency. This, therefore, brings about an increased risk of insider fraud perpetration. The objective of this paper is to explore why insider fraud is, therefore, now the biggest threat to a business. To achieve the research objective, participating individuals within the financial crime sector (either as a practitioner or consultants) attended semi-structured interviews with the researcher. The principal recruitment strategy for these individuals was via the researcher’s LinkedIn network. The main findings in the research suggest that insider fraud has been ignored and rejected as a threat to a business, owing to a reluctance to admit that a colleague may perpetrate. A positive of the Coronavirus pandemic is that it has forced insider fraud into a more prominent position and giving it more importance on a business’ agenda and risk register. Despite insider fraud always having been a possibility (and therefore a risk) within any business, it is very rare that a business has given it the attention it requires until now, if at all. The research concludes that insider fraud needs to prioritised by all businesses, and even ahead of external fraud. The research also provides advice on how a business can add new or enhance existing controls to mitigate the risk.

Keywords: insider fraud, occupational fraud, COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus, pandemic, internal fraud, financial crime, economic crime

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Authors: Djeddi Khaled, Houssou Hind, Miloudi Abdelatif, Rabah Siham

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Camels play a vital role as multipurpose animals, providing milk meat and serving as a means of transportation. They serve as a financial reserve for pastoralists and hold significant cultural and social value. Camel milk, known for its exceptional nutritional properties, is considered a valuable substitute for human milk. However, udder infections, particularly mastitis, pose significant challenges to camel farming. Clinical and subclinical mastitis can lead to substantial economic losses. Mastitis, especially the subclinical form, is a persistent and prevalent condition affecting milk hygiene and quality in dairy camels. This review offers insights into the prevalence and risk factors associated with subclinical mastitis in camels. The prevalence of subclinical mastitis in dairy camels was found to range from 9.28% to 87.78%. Major pathogens responsible for camel mastitis include Staphylococcus aureus, Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus, Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, Micrococcus spp, Pasteurella haemolytica and Corynebacterium spp. The study outlines key risk factors contributing to camel mastitis, emphasizing factors such as severe tick infestation, age, stage of lactation, parity, body condition score, skin lesion on the teats or udders, anti-suckling devices, previous history of the udder, conformation of the udder, breed, unhygienic milking practices, production system, amongst others have been reported to be important in the prevalence of subclinical mastitis. This comprehensive overview provides valuable insights into the multifaceted aspects of camel mastitis, encompassing prevalent bacterial pathogens and diverse risk factors. The findings underscore the importance of holistic management practices, emphasizing hygiene, health monitoring, and targeted interventions to ensure the well-being and productivity of camels in various agro-pastoral contexts.

Keywords: bacterial pathogens, camel, mastitis, risk factors

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Shokoufeh Abrisham, Seyed Mahmoud Hossieni, Elham Pishbin

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In this paper, a hybrid method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are employed to evaluate the team performance quality of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) procedures in emergency department. According to American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, a category relying on staff action leading to clinical incidents and also some discussions with emergency medicine experts, a fault tree model for ACLS procedure is obtained based on the human performance. The obtained FTA model is converted into BNs, and some different scenarios are defined to demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of the presented model of BNs. Also, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to indicate the effects of team leader presence and uncertainty knowledge of experts on the quality of ACLS. The proposed model based on BNs shows that how the results of risk analysis can be closed to reality comparing to the obtained results based on only FTA in medical procedures.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, fault tree analysis, Bayesian belief networks, numan performance, healthcare systems

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Authors: Sarah Gounden, Mukesh Dheda, Boikhutso Tlou, Elizabeth Ojewole, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been effective in the reduction of mortality and resulted in an improvement in the prognosis of HIV-infected patients. However, treatment with antiretrovirals (ARVs) has led to the development of many adverse drug reactions (ADRs). It is, therefore, necessary to determine the safety profile of these medicines in a South African population in order to ensure safe and optimal medicine use. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify ADRs experienced with the different ARVs currently used in South Africa, to determine the safety profile of ARV medicine in South Africa based on reported ADRs, and to determine the ARVs with the lowest risk profile based on specific patient populations. Methodology: This was a quantitative study. Individual case safety reports for the period January 2010 – December 2013 were obtained from the National Pharmacovigilance Center; these reports contained information on ADRs, ARV medicine, and patient demographics. Data was analysed to find associations that may exist between ADRs experienced, ARV medicines used and patient demographics. Results: A total of 1916 patient reports were received of which 1534 met the inclusion criteria for the study. The ARV with the lowest risk of ADRs were found to be lamivudine (0.51%, n=12), followed by lopinavir/ritonavir combination (0.8%, n=19) and abacavir (0.64%, n=15). A higher incidence of ADRs was observed in females compared to males. The age group 31–50 years and the weight group 61–80 kg had the highest incidence of ADRs reported. Conclusion: This study found that the safest ARVs to be used in a South African population are lamivudine, abacavir, and the lopinavir/ritonavir combination. Gender differences play a significant role in the occurrence of ADRs and both anatomical and physiological differences account for this. An increased BMI (body mass index) in both men and women showed an increase in the incidence of ADRs associated with ARV therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, antiretrovirals, HIV/AIDS, pharmacovigilance, South Africa

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Authors: Shima Taheri, Simon Clark

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Concrete is an essential building material used in the majority of structures. Degradation of concrete over time increases the life-cycle cost of an asset with an estimated annual cost of billions of dollars to national economies. Most of the concrete failure occurs due to cracks, which propagate through a structure and cause weakening leading to failure. Stopping crack propagation is thus the key to protecting concrete structures from failure and is the best way to prevent inconveniences and catastrophes. Furthermore, the majority of cracks occur deep within the concrete in inaccessible areas and are invisible to normal inspection. Few materials intrinsically possess self-healing ability, but one that does is concrete. However, self-healing in concrete is limited to small dormant cracks in a moist environment and is difficult to control. In this project, we developed a method for self-healing of nascent fractures in concrete components through the automatic release of self-curing healing agents encapsulated in breakable nano- and micro-structures. The Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) based two-part adhesive is encapsulated in core-shell structures with brittle/weak inert shell, synthesized via miniemulsion/solvent evaporation polymerization. Stress fields associated with propagating cracks can break these capsules releasing the healing agents at the point where they are needed. The shell thickness is playing an important role in preserving the content until the final setting of concrete. The capsules can also be surface functionalized with carboxyl groups to overcome the homogenous mixing issues. Currently, this formulated self-healing system can replace up to 1% of cement in a concrete formulation. Increasing this amount to 5-7% in the concrete formulation without compromising compression strength and shrinkage properties, is still under investigation. This self-healing system will not only increase the durability of structures by stopping crack propagation but also allow the use of less cement in concrete construction, thereby adding to the global effort for CO2 emission reduction.

Keywords: self-healing concrete, concrete crack, concrete deterioration, durability

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Authors: Sastry Y. Kandukuri, Isak Andersen

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Despite recent advances in the manufacturing sector, quality issues remain a frequent occurrence, and can result in fatal accidents, equipment downtime, and loss of life. Adequate quality is of high importance in high-risk industries such as sea-going vessels and offshore installations in which third party quality assurance and product control play an important essential role in ensuring manufacturing quality of critical components. Classification societies play a vital role in mitigating risk in these industries by making sure that all the stakeholders i.e. manufacturers, builders, and end users are provided with adequate rules and standards that effectively ensures components produced at a high level of quality based on the area of application and risk of its failure. Quality issues have also been linked to the lack of competence or negligence of stakeholders in supply value chain. However, continued actions and regulatory reforms through modernization of rules and requirements has provided additional tools for purchasers and manufacturers to confront these issues. Included among these tools are updated ‘approval of manufacturer class programs’ aimed at developing and implementing a set of standardized manufacturing quality metrics for use by the manufacturer and verified by the classification society. The establishment and collection of manufacturing and testing requirements described in these programs could provide various stakeholders – from industry to vessel owners – with greater insight into the state of quality at a given manufacturing facility, and allow stakeholders to anticipate better and address quality issues while simultaneously reducing unnecessary failures that are costly to the industry. The publication introduces, explains and discusses critical manufacturing and testing requirements set in a leading class society’s approval of manufacturer regime and its rationale and some case studies.

Keywords: classification society, manufacturing, materials processing, materials testing, quality control

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Authors: Nuray Gökçek Karaca

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This study aims to examine the application of occupational health and safety supervision in Turkey and EU countries in terms of legal regulations. The results of research reveal that occupational health and safety supervision in EU countries, whatever the understanding of welfare state, is effectively carried out and almost all legal regulations on this subject are consistent with the EU directives. On the other hand, there are serious problems in applications, not legal regulations, of occupational health and safety supervision in Turkey by the side of EU countries. Indeed, Turkey has modern regulations on occupational health and safety supervision whereas there are several problems such as ignoring prevention policy on occupational health and safety supervision, understanding of monotype inspector, problems resulting from this understanding and dispersed structure of occupational health and safety organizations in workplaces. As a result, Turkey needs to carry out effective supervision mechanisms.

Keywords: legal rules, occupational health and safety, inspection, supervision, legislation

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