Search results for: fire weather

Authors: Deepak Loura

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Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

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Authors: Mark R. Leipnik, Dahlia Durga, Linda Johnson-Bhola

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Kaieteur is the most iconic National Park in the rainforest-clad nation of Guyana in South America. However, the magnificent 226-meter-high waterfall at its center is virtually inaccessible by surface transportation, and the occasional charter flights to the small airstrip in the park are too expensive for many tourists and residents. Thus, the largest waterfall in all of Amazonia, where the Potaro River plunges over a single free drop twice as high as Victoria Falls, remains preserved in splendid isolation inside a 57,000-hectare National Park established by the British in 1929, in the deepest recesses of a remote jungle canyon. Kaieteur Falls are largely unseen firsthand, but images of the falls are depicted on the Guyanese twenty dollar note, in every Guyanese tourist promotion, and on many items in the national capital of Georgetown. Georgetown is only 223-241 kilometers away from the falls. The lack of a single mileage figure demonstrates there is no single overland route. Any journey, except by air, involves changes of vehicles, a ferry ride, and a boat ride up a jungle river. It also entails hiking for many hours to view the falls. Surface access from Georgetown (or any city) is thus a 3-5 day-long adventure; even in the dry season, during the two wet seasons, travel is a particularly sticky proposition. This journey was made overland by the paper's co-author Dahlia Durga. This paper focuses on potential ways to improve overland tourist access to Kaieteur National Park from Georgetown. This is primarily a GIS-based analysis, using multiple criteria to determine the least cost means of creating all-weather road access to the area near the base of the falls while minimizing distance and elevation changes. Critically, it also involves minimizing the number of new bridges required to be built while utilizing the one existing ferry crossings of a major river. Cost estimates are based on data from road and bridge construction engineers operating currently in the interior of Guyana. The paper contains original maps generated with ArcGIS of the potential routes for such an overland connection, including the one deemed optimal. Other factors, such as the impact on endangered species habitats and Indigenous populations, are considered. This proposed infrastructure development is taking place at a time when Guyana is undergoing the largest boom in its history due to revenues from offshore oil and gas development. Thus, better access to the most important tourist attraction in the country is likely to happen eventually in some manner. But the questions of the most environmentally sustainable and least costly alternatives for such access remain. This paper addresses those questions and others related to access to this magnificent natural treasure and the tradeoffs such access will have on the preservation of the currently pristine natural environment of Kaieteur Falls.

Keywords: nature tourism, GIS, Amazonia, national parks

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Authors: Ronahlee Asuncion

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The nature of their work and employment relationship make domestic workers easy prey to abuse, maltreatment, and exploitation. Considering their plight, this research was conceptualized and examined the: a) level of awareness of Filipino domestic workers on occupational safety and health (OSH); b) their issues/problems/concerns on OSH; c) their intervention strategies at work to address OSH related issues/problems/concerns; d) issues/problems/concerns of government, employers, and non-government organizations with regard to implementation of OSH to Filipino domestic workers; e) the role of government, employers and non-government organizations to help Filipino domestic workers address OSH related issues/problems/concerns; and f) the necessary policy amendments/initiatives/programs to address OSH related issues/problems/concerns of Filipino domestic workers. The study conducted a survey using non-probability sampling, two focus group discussions, two group interviews, and fourteen face-to-face interviews. These were further supplemented with an email correspondence to a key informant based in another country. Books, journals, magazines, and relevant websites further substantiated and enriched data of the research. Findings of the study point to the fact that domestic workers have low level of awareness on OSH because of poor information drive, fragmented implementation of the Domestic Workers Act, inactive campaign at the barangay level, weakened advocacy for domestic workers, absence of law on OSH for domestic workers, and generally low safety culture in the country among others. Filipino domestic workers suffer from insufficient rest, long hours of work, heavy workload, occupational stress, poor accommodation, insufficient hours of sleep, deprivation of day off, accidents and injuries such as cuts, burns, slipping, stumbling, electrical grounding, and fire, verbal, physical and sexual abuses, lack of medical assistance, none provision of personal protective equipment (PPE), absence of knowledge on the proper way of lifting, working at heights, and insufficient food provision. They also suffer from psychological problems because of separation from one’s family, limited mobility in the household where they work, injuries and accidents from using advanced home appliances and taking care of pets, low self-esteem, ergonomic problems, the need to adjust to all household members who have various needs and demands, inability to voice their complaints, drudgery of work, and emotional stress. With regard to illness or health problems, they commonly experience leg pains, back pains, and headaches. In the absence of intervention programs like those offered in the formal employment set up, domestic workers resort to praying, turn to family, relatives and friends for social and emotional support, connect with them through social media like Facebook which also serve as a means of entertainment to them, talk to their employer, and just try to be optimistic about their situation. Promoting OSH for domestic workers is very challenging and complicated because of interrelated factors such as cultural, knowledge, attitudinal, relational, social, resource, economic, political, institutional and legal problems. This complexity necessitates using a holistic and integrated approach as this is not a problem requiring simple solutions. With this recognition comes the full understanding that its success involves the action and cooperation of all duty bearers in attaining decent work for domestic workers.

Keywords: decent work, Filipino domestic workers, occupational safety and health, working conditions

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Authors: Sarah M. Schoellhammer, Stephen Gibb

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Bureaucracy, in particular, its core element, a formal and stable hierarchy of authority, is proving less and less appropriate under the conditions of today’s knowledge economy. Centralization and formalization were consistently found to hinder innovation, undermining cross-functional collaboration, personal responsibility, and flexibility. With its focus on systematical planning, controlling and monitoring the development of new or improved solutions for customers, even innovation management as a discipline is to a significant extent based on a mechanistic understanding of organizations. The most important drivers of innovation, human creativity, and initiative, however, can be more hindered than supported by central elements of classic innovation management, such as predefined innovation strategies, rigid stage gate processes, and decisions made in management gate meetings. Heterarchy, as an alternative network form of organization, is essentially characterized by its dynamic influence structures, whereby the biggest influence is allocated by the collective to the persons perceived the most competent in a certain issue. Theoretical arguments that the non-hierarchical concept better supports innovation than bureaucracy have been supported by empirical research. These prior studies either focus on the structure and general functioning of non-hierarchical organizations or on their innovativeness, that means innovation as an outcome. Complementing classic innovation management approaches, this work aims to shed light on how innovations are initiated and realized in heterarchies in order to identify alternative solutions practiced under conditions of the post-bureaucratic organization. Through an initial individual case study, which is part of a multiple-case project, the innovation practices of an innovative and highly heterarchical medium-sized company in the German fire engineering industry are investigated. In a pragmatic mixed methods approach media resonance, company documents, and workspace architecture are analyzed, in addition to qualitative interviews with the CEO and employees of the case company, as well as a quantitative survey aiming to characterize the company along five scaled dimensions of a heterarchy spectrum. The analysis reveals some similarities and striking differences to approaches suggested by classic innovation management. The studied heterarchy has no predefined innovation strategy guiding new product and service development. Instead, strategic direction is provided by the CEO, described as visionary and creative. Procedures for innovation are hardly formalized, with new product ideas being evaluated on the basis of gut feeling and flexible, rather general criteria. Employees still being hesitant to take responsibility and make decisions, hierarchical influence is still prominent. Described as open-minded and collaborative, culture and leadership were found largely congruent with definitions of innovation culture. Overall, innovation efforts at the case company tend to be coordinated more through cultural than through formal organizational mechanisms. To better enable innovation in mainstream organizations, responsible practitioners are recommended not to limit changes to reducing the central elements of the bureaucratic organization, formalization, and centralization. The freedoms this entails need to be sustained through cultural coordination mechanisms, with personal initiative and responsibility by employees as well as common innovation-supportive norms and values. These allow to integrate diverse competencies, opinions, and activities and, thus, to guide innovation efforts.

Keywords: bureaucracy, heterarchy, innovation management, values

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Authors: Jean Felix Tuyisingize

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Speeding or inappropriate speed is a major problem worldwide, contributing to 10-15% of road crashes and 30% of fatal injury crashes. The consequences of speeding put the driver's life at risk and the lives of other road users like motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians. To control vehicle speeds, governments, and traffic authorities enforced speed regulations through speed cameras and speed section control, which monitor all vehicle speeds and detect plate numbers to levy penalties. However, speed limit violations are prevalent, even on motorways with speed cameras. The problem with speed cameras is that they alter driver behaviors, and their effect declines with increasing distance from the speed camera location. Drivers decelerate short distances before the camera and vigorously accelerate above the speed limit just after passing by the camera. The sudden decelerating near cameras causes the drivers to try to make up for lost time after passing it, and they do this by speeding up, resulting in a phenomenon known as the "Kangaroo jump" or "V-profile" around camera/ASSC areas. This study investigated the impact of speed enforcement devices, specifically Average Speed Section Control (ASSCs) and fixed cameras, on acceleration and deceleration events within their vicinity. The research employed advanced statistical and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis on naturalistic driving data, to uncover speeding patterns near the speed enforcement systems. The study revealed a notable concentration of events within a 600-meter radius of enforcement devices, suggesting their influence on driver behaviors within a specific range. However, most of these events are of low severity, suggesting that drivers may not significantly alter their speed upon encountering these devices. This behavior could be attributed to several reasons, such as consistently maintaining safe speeds or using real-time in-vehicle intervention systems. The complexity of driver behavior is also highlighted, indicating the potential influence of factors like traffic density, road conditions, weather, time of day, and driver characteristics. Further, the study highlighted that high-severity events often occurred outside speed enforcement zones, particularly around intersections, indicating these as potential hotspots for drastic speed changes. These findings call for a broader perspective on traffic safety interventions beyond reliance on speed enforcement devices. However, the study acknowledges certain limitations, such as its reliance on a specific geographical focus, which may impact the broad applicability of the findings. Additionally, the severity of speed modification events was categorized into low, medium, and high, which could oversimplify the continuum of speed changes and potentially mask trends within each category. This research contributes valuable insights to traffic safety and driver behavior literature, illuminating the complexity of driver behavior and the potential influence of factors beyond the presence of speed enforcement devices. Future research directions may employ various categories of event severity. They may also explore the role of in-vehicle technologies, driver characteristics, and a broader set of environmental variables in driving behavior and traffic safety.

Keywords: acceleration, deceleration, speeding, inappropriate speed, speed enforcement cameras

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Authors: Stefan W. Kienzle

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The increasing number of occurrences of extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts on society and are the cause of continued and increasing loss of human and animal lives, loss or damage to property (houses, cars), and associated stresses to the public in coping with a changing climate. A climate index breaks down daily climate time series into meaningful derivatives, such as the annual number of frost days. Climate indices allow for the spatially consistent analysis of a wide range of climate-dependent variables, which enables the quantification and mapping of historical and future climate change across regions. As trends of phenomena such as the length of the growing season change differently in different hydro-climatological regions, mapping needs to be carried out at a high spatial resolution, such as the 10km by 10km Canadian Climate Grid, which has interpolated daily values from 1950 to 2017 for minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Climate indices form the basis for the analysis and comparison of means, extremes, trends, the quantification of changes, and their respective confidence levels. A total of 39 temperature indices and 16 precipitation indices were computed for the period 1951 to 2017 for the Province of Alberta. Temperature indices include the annual number of days with temperatures above or below certain threshold temperatures (0, +-10, +-20, +25, +30ºC), frost days, and timing of frost days, freeze-thaw days, growing or degree days, and energy demands for air conditioning and heating. Precipitation indices include daily and accumulated 3- and 5-day extremes, days with precipitation, period of days without precipitation, and snow and potential evapotranspiration. The rank-based nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to determine the existence and significant levels of all associated trends. The slope of the trends was determined using the non-parametric Sen’s slope test. The Google mapping interface was developed to create the website albertaclimaterecords.com, from which beach of the 55 climate indices can be queried for any of the 6833 grid cells that make up Alberta. In addition to the climate indices, climate normals were calculated and mapped for four historical 30-year periods and one future period (1951-1980, 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2017, 2041-2070). While winters have warmed since the 1950s by between 4 - 5°C in the South and 6 - 7°C in the North, summers are showing the weakest warming during the same period, ranging from about 0.5 - 1.5°C. New agricultural opportunities exist in central regions where the number of heat units and growing degree days are increasing, and the number of frost days is decreasing. While the number of days below -20ºC has about halved across Alberta, the growing season has expanded by between two and five weeks since the 1950s. Interestingly, both the number of days with heat waves and cold spells have doubled to four-folded during the same period. This research demonstrates the enormous potential of using climate indices at the best regional spatial resolution possible to enable society to understand historical and future climate changes of their region.

Keywords: climate change, climate indices, habitat risk, regional, mapping, extremes

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Authors: Kimberley Adamek

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According to the Council on Tall Buildings, there has been a rapid increase in the construction of tall or “megatall” buildings over the past two decades. Simultaneously, the New England Journal of Medicine has reported that there has been a steady increase in climate related natural disasters since the 1970s; the eastern expansion of the USA's infamous Tornado Alley being just one of many current issues. In the future, this could mean that tall buildings, which already guide high speed winds down to pedestrian levels would have to withstand stronger forces and protect pedestrians in more extreme ways. Although many projects are required to be verified within wind tunnels and a handful of cities such as San Francisco have included wind testing within building code standards, there are still many examples where wind is only considered for basic loading. This typically results in and an increase of structural expense and unwanted mitigation strategies that are proposed late within a project. When building cities, architects rarely consider how each building alters the invisible patterns of wind and how these alterations effect other areas in different ways later on. It is not until these forces move, overpower and even destroy cities that people take notice. For example, towers have caused winds to blow objects into people (Walkie-Talkie Tower, Leeds, England), cause building parts to vibrate and produce loud humming noises (Beetham Tower, Manchester), caused wind tunnels in streets as well as many other issues. Alternatively, there exist towers which have used their form to naturally draw in air and ventilate entire facilities in order to eliminate the needs for costly HVAC systems (The Met, Thailand) and used their form to increase wind speeds to generate electricity (Bahrain Tower, Dubai). Wind and weather exist and effect all parts of the world in ways such as: Science, health, war, infrastructure, catastrophes, tourism, shopping, media and materials. Working in partnership with a leading wind engineering company RWDI, a series of tests, images and animations documenting discovered interactions of different building forms with wind will be collected to emphasize the possibilities for wind use to architects. A site within San Francisco (due to its increasing tower development, consistently wind conditions and existing strict wind comfort criteria) will host a final design. Iterations of this design will be tested within the wind tunnel and computational fluid dynamic systems which will expose, utilize and manipulate wind flows to create new forms, technologies and experiences. Ultimately, this thesis aims to question the amount which the environment is allowed to permeate building enclosures, uncover new programmatic possibilities for wind in buildings, and push the boundaries of working with the wind to ensure the development and safety of future cities. This investigation will improve and expand upon the traditional understanding of wind in order to give architects, wind engineers as well as the general public the ability to broaden their scope in order to productively utilize this living phenomenon that everyone constantly feels but cannot see.

Keywords: wind engineering, climate, visualization, architectural aerodynamics

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Authors: Shanaka Gunasekara, Maleen Jayasuriya, Nalin Harischandra, Lilantha Samaranayake, Gamini Dissanayake

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One serious facet of the worsening Human-Elephant conflict (HEC) in nations such as Sri Lanka involves elephant-train collisions. Endangered Asian elephants are maimed or killed during such accidents, which also often result in orphaned or disabled elephants, contributing to the phenomenon of lone elephants. These lone elephants are found to be more likely to attack villages and showcase aggressive behaviour, which further exacerbates the overall HEC. Furthermore, Railway Services incur significant financial losses and disruptions to services annually due to such accidents. Most elephant-train collisions occur due to a lack of adequate reaction time. This is due to the significant stopping distance requirements of trains, as the full braking force needs to be avoided to minimise the risk of derailment. Thus, poor driver visibility at sharp turns, nighttime operation, and poor weather conditions are often contributing factors to this problem. Initial investigations also indicate that most collisions occur in localised “hotspots” where elephant pathways/corridors intersect with railway tracks that border grazing land and watering holes. Taking these factors into consideration, this work proposes the leveraging of recent developments in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) technology to detect elephants using an RGB/infrared capable camera around known hotspots along the railway track. The CNN was trained using a curated dataset of elephants collected on field visits to elephant sanctuaries and wildlife parks in Sri Lanka. With this vision-based detection system at its core, a prototype unit of an early warning system was designed and tested. This weatherised and waterproofed unit consists of a Reolink security camera which provides a wide field of view and range, an Nvidia Jetson Xavier computing unit, a rechargeable battery, and a solar panel for self-sufficient functioning. The prototype unit was designed to be a low-cost, low-power and small footprint device that can be mounted on infrastructures such as poles or trees. If an elephant is detected, an early warning message is communicated to the train driver using the GSM network. A mobile app for this purpose was also designed to ensure that the warning is clearly communicated. A centralized control station manages and communicates all information through the train station network to ensure coordination among important stakeholders. Initial results indicate that detection accuracy is sufficient under varying lighting situations, provided comprehensive training datasets that represent a wide range of challenging conditions are available. The overall hardware prototype was shown to be robust and reliable. We envision a network of such units may help contribute to reducing the problem of elephant-train collisions and has the potential to act as an important surveillance mechanism in dealing with the broader issue of human-elephant conflicts.

Keywords: computer vision, deep learning, human-elephant conflict, wildlife early warning technology

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Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats

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An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.

Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining

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Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

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Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

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Authors: Deepak Loura

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The most contemporary method of producing horticulture crops both qualitatively and quantitatively is protected cultivation, or greenhouse cultivation, which has gained widespread acceptance in recent decades. Protected farming, commonly referred to as controlled environment agriculture (CEA), is extremely productive, land- and water-wise, as well as environmentally friendly. The technology entails growing horticulture crops in a controlled environment where variables such as temperature, humidity, light, soil, water, fertilizer, etc. are adjusted to achieve optimal output and enable a consistent supply of them even during the off-season. Over the past ten years, protected cultivation of high-value crops and cut flowers has demonstrated remarkable potential. More and more agricultural and horticultural crop production systems are moving to protected environments as a result of the growing demand for high-quality products by global markets. By covering the crop, it is possible to control the macro- and microenvironments, enhancing plant performance and allowing for longer production times, earlier harvests, and higher yields of higher quality. These shielding features alter the environment of the plant while also offering protection from wind, rain, and insects. Protected farming opens up hitherto unexplored opportunities in agriculture as the liberalised economy and improved agricultural technologies advance. Typically, the revenues from fruit, vegetable, and flower crops are 4 to 8 times higher than those from other crops. If any of these high-value crops are cultivated in protected environments like greenhouses, net houses, tunnels, etc., this profit can be multiplied. Vegetable and cut flower post-harvest losses are extremely high (20–0%), however sheltered growing techniques and year-round cropping can greatly minimize post-harvest losses and enhance yield by 5–10 times. Seasonality and weather have a big impact on the production of vegetables and flowers. The variety of their products results in significant price and quality changes for vegetables. For the application of current technology in crop production, achieving a balance between year-round availability of vegetables and flowers with minimal environmental impact and remaining competitive is a significant problem. The future of agriculture will be protected since population growth is reducing the amount of land that may be held. Protected agriculture is a particularly profitable endeavor for tiny landholdings. Small greenhouses, net houses, nurseries, and low tunnel greenhouses can all be built by farmers to increase their income. Protected agriculture is also aided by the rise in biotic and abiotic stress factors. As a result of the greater productivity levels, these technologies are not only opening up opportunities for producers with larger landholdings, but also for those with smaller holdings. Protected cultivation can be thought of as a kind of precise, forward-thinking, parallel agriculture that covers almost all aspects of farming and is rather subject to additional inspection for technical applicability to circumstances, farmer economics, and market economics.

Keywords: protected cultivation, horticulture, greenhouse, vegetable, controlled environment agriculture

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Authors: Manta Nowbuth, Marie Anais Kimberley Therese

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The vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges stands as a critical global concern. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased the risks faced by communities living along the coastlines Worldwide. Small Island developing states (SIDS) stands out as being exceptionally vulnerable, coastal regions, ecosystems of human habitation and natural forces, bear witness to the frontlines of climate-induced challenges, and the intensification of storm surges underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of coastal vulnerability. With limited landmass, low-lying terrains, and resilience on coastal resources, SIDS face an amplified vulnerability to the consequences of storm surges, the delicate balance between human activities and environmental dynamics in these island nations increases the urgency of tailored strategies for assessing and mitigating coastal vulnerability. This research uses an approach to evaluate the vulnerability of coastal communities in Mauritius. The Satellite imagery analysis makes use of sentinel satellite imageries, modified normalised difference water index, classification techniques and the DSAS add on to quantify the extent of shoreline erosion or accumulation, providing a spatial perspective on coastal vulnerability. The coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is applied by Gonitz et al Formula, this index considers factors such as coastal slope, sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range. Weighted assessments identify regions with varying levels of vulnerability, ranging from low to high. The study was carried out in a Village Located in the south of Mauritius, namely Rivière des Galets, with a population of about 500 people over an area of 60,000m². The Village of Rivière des Galets being located in the south, and the southern coast of Mauritius being exposed to the open Indian ocean, is vulnerable to swells, The swells generated by the South east trade winds can lead to large waves and rough sea conditions along the Southern Coastline which has an impact on the coastal activities, including fishing, tourism and coastal Infrastructures, hence, On the one hand, the results highlighted that from a stretch of 123km of coastline the linear rate regression for the 5 –year span varies from-24.1m/yr. to 8.2m/yr., the maximum rate of change in terms of eroded land is -24m/yr. and the maximum rate of accretion is 8.2m/yr. On the other hand, the coastal vulnerability index varies from 9.1 to 45.6 and it was categorised into low, moderate, high and very high risks zones. It has been observed that region which lacks protective barriers and are made of sandy beaches are categorised as high risks zone and hence it is imperative to high risk regions for immediate attention and intervention, as they will most likely be exposed to coastal hazards and impacts from climate change, which demands proactive measures for enhanced resilience and sustainable adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, coastal vulnerability, disaster management, remote sensing, satellite imagery, storm surge

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Authors: Małgorzata Golonka, Jadwiga Laska

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Among self-healing materials, the most unexplored group are thermoplastic polymers. These polymers are used not only to produce packaging with a relatively short life but also to obtain coatings, insulation, casings, or parts of machines and devices. Due to its exceptional resistance to weather conditions, hydrophobicity, sufficient mechanical strength, and ease of extrusion, polyethylene is used in the production of polymer pipelines and as an insulating layer for steel pipelines. Polyethylene or PE coated steel pipelines can be used in difficult conditions such as underground or underwater installations. Both installation and use under such conditions are associated with high stresses and consequently the formation of microdamages in the structure of the material, loss of its integrity and final applicability. The ideal solution would be to include a self-healing system in the polymer material. In the presented study the behavior of resin-coated microcapsules in the extrusion process of low-density polyethylene was examined. Microcapsules are a convenient element of the repair system because they can be filled with appropriate reactive substances to ensure the repair process, but the main problem is their durability under processing conditions. Rapeseed oil, which has a relatively high boiling point of 240⁰C and low volatility, was used as the core material that simulates the reactive agents. The capsule shell, which is a key element responsible for its mechanical strength, was obtained by in situ polymerising urea-formaldehyde, melamine-urea-formaldehyde or melamine-formaldehyde resin on the surface of oil droplets dispersed in water. The strength of the capsules was compared based on the shell material, and in addition, microcapsules with single- and multilayer shells were obtained using different combinations of the chemical composition of the resins. For example, the first layer of appropriate tightness and stiffness was made of melamine-urea-formaldehyde resin, and the second layer was a melamine-formaldehyde reinforcing layer. The size, shape, distribution of capsule diameters and shell thickness were determined using digital optical microscopy and electron microscopy. The efficiency of encapsulation (i.e., the presence of rapeseed oil as the core) and the tightness of the shell were determined by FTIR spectroscopic examination. The mechanical strength and distribution of microcapsules in polyethylene were tested by extruding samples of crushed low-density polyethylene mixed with microcapsules in a ratio of 1 and 2.5% by weight. The extrusion process was carried out in a mini extruder at a temperature of 150⁰C. The capsules obtained had a diameter range of 70-200 µm. FTIR analysis confirmed the presence of rapeseed oil in both single- and multilayer shell microcapsules. Microscopic observations of cross sections of the extrudates confirmed the presence of both intact and cracked microcapsules. However, the melamine-formaldehyde resin shells showed higher processing strength compared to that of the melamine-urea-formaldehyde coating and the urea-formaldehyde coating. Capsules with a urea-formaldehyde shell work very well in resin coating systems and cement composites, i.e., in pressureless processing and moulding conditions. The addition of another layer of melamine-formaldehyde coating to both the melamine-urea-formaldehyde and melamine-formaldehyde resin layers significantly increased the number of microcapsules undamaged during the extrusion process. The properties of multilayer coatings were also determined and compared with each other using computer modelling.

Keywords: self-healing polymers, polyethylene, microcapsules, extrusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 29

Authors: Fatemeh Modirzare

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Smart interior design represents a transformative approach to creating living spaces that integrate technology seamlessly into our daily lives, enhancing comfort, convenience, and sustainability. This paper explores the concept of smart interior design, its principles, benefits, challenges, and future prospects. It also highlights various examples and applications of smart interior design to illustrate its potential in shaping the way we live and interact with our surroundings. In an increasingly digitized world, the boundaries between technology and interior design are blurring. Smart interior design, also known as intelligent or connected interior design, involves the incorporation of advanced technologies and automation systems into residential and commercial spaces. This innovative approach aims to make living environments more efficient, comfortable, and adaptable while promoting sustainability and user well-being. Smart interior design seamlessly integrates technology into the aesthetics and functionality of a space, ensuring that devices and systems do not disrupt the overall design. Sustainable materials, energy-efficient systems, and eco-friendly practices are central to smart interior design, reducing environmental impact. Spaces are designed to be adaptable, allowing for reconfiguration to suit changing needs and preferences. Smart homes and spaces offer greater comfort through features like automated climate control, adjustable lighting, and customizable ambiance. Smart interior design can significantly reduce energy consumption through optimized heating, cooling, and lighting systems. Smart interior design integrates security systems, fire detection, and emergency response mechanisms for enhanced safety. Sustainable materials, energy-efficient appliances, and waste reduction practices contribute to a greener living environment. Implementing smart interior design can be expensive, particularly when retrofitting existing spaces with smart technologies. The increased connectivity raises concerns about data privacy and cybersecurity, requiring robust measures to protect user information. Rapid advancements in technology may lead to obsolescence, necessitating updates and replacements. Users must be familiar with smart systems to fully benefit from them, requiring education and ongoing support. Residential spaces incorporate features like voice-activated assistants, automated lighting, and energy management systems. Intelligent office design enhances productivity and employee well-being through smart lighting, climate control, and meeting room booking systems. Hospitals and healthcare facilities use smart interior design for patient monitoring, wayfinding, and energy conservation. Smart retail design includes interactive displays, personalized shopping experiences, and inventory management systems. The future of smart interior design holds exciting possibilities, including AI-powered design tools that create personalized spaces based on user preferences. Smart interior design will increasingly prioritize factors that improve physical and mental health, such as air quality monitoring and mood-enhancing lighting. Smart interior design is revolutionizing the way we interact with our living and working spaces. By embracing technology, sustainability, and user-centric design principles, smart interior design offers numerous benefits, from increased comfort and convenience to energy efficiency and sustainability. Despite challenges, the future holds tremendous potential for further innovation in this field, promising a more connected, efficient, and harmonious way of living and working.

Keywords: smart interior design, home automation, sustainable living spaces, technological integration, user-centric design

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Choudhury

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Background: Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world, with high population density and high rates of poverty and illiteracy. 80% of the country is on low-lying floodplains, leaving the country one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change: sea level rise, cyclones and storms, salinity intrusion, rising temperatures and heavy monsoon downpours. Such climatic events already limit Economic Development in the country. Although Bangladesh has had little responsibility in contributing to global climatic change, it is vulnerable to both its direct and indirect impacts. Real threats include reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, increased incidence of flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources. Currently, 8.3 million Bangladeshis live in cyclone high risk areas. However, by 2050 this is expected to grow to 20.3 million people, if proper adaptive actions are not taken. Under a high emissions scenario, an additional 7.6 million people will be exposed to very high salinity by 2050 compared to current levels. It is also projected that, an average of 7.2 million people will be affected by flooding due to sea level rise every year between 2070-2100 and If global emissions decrease rapidly and adaptation interventions are taken, the population affected by flooding could be limited to only about 14,000 people. To combat the climate change adverse effects, Bangladesh government has initiated many adaptive measures specially in infrastructure and renewable energy sector. Government is investing huge money and initiated many projects which have been proved very success full. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to describe some successful measures initiated by Bangladesh government in its effort to make the country a Climate Resilient. Methodology: Review of operation plan and activities of different relevant Ministries of Bangladesh government. Result: The following initiative projects, programs and activities are considered as best practices for Climate Change adaptation successes for Bangladesh: 1. The Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL); 2. Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU); 3. The Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF); 4. Community Climate Change Project (CCCP); 5. Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP, 2011-2016)- "Climate Change and Environmental Issues"; 6. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh and WHO Collaboration; - National Adaptation Plan. -"Building adaptation to climate change in health in least developed countries through resilient WASH". 7. COP-21 “Climate and health country profile -2015 Bangladesh. Conclusion: Due to a vast coastline, low-lying land and abundance of rivers, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change. Having extensive experience with facing natural disasters, Bangladesh has developed a successful adaptation program, which led to a significant reduction in casualties from extreme weather events. In a low income country setting, Bangladesh had successfully adapted various projects and initiatives to combat future Climate Change challenges.

Keywords: climate, change, success, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Jeremiah Chinnadurai, Rebekah A. I. Lucas, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke

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Introduction: The effects of climate change (CC) are largely discussed across the globe in terms of impacts on the environment and the general population, but the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored. The predicted rise in temperatures and heat events in the CC scenario have health implications on millions of workers in physically exerting jobs. The current health and productivity risks associated with heat exposures are characterized, future risk estimates as temperature rises and recommendations towards developing protective and preventive occupational health and safety guidelines for India are discussed. Methodology: Cross-sectional studies were conducted in several occupational sectors with workers engaged in moderate to heavy labor (n=1580). Quantitative data on heat exposures (WBGT°C), physiological heat strain indicators viz., Core temperature (CBT), Urine specific gravity (USG), Sweat rate (SwR) and qualitative data on heat-related health symptoms and productivity losses were collected. Data were analyzed for associations between heat exposures, health and productivity outcomes related to heat stress. Findings: Heat conditions exceeded the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for safe manual work in 66% of the workers across several sectors (Avg.WBGT of 28.7°C±3.1°C). Widespread concerns about heat-related health outcomes (86%) were prevalent among workers exposed to high TLVs, with excessive sweating, fatigue and tiredness being commonly reported by workers. The heat stress indicators, core temperature (14%), Sweat rate (8%) and USG (9%), were above normal levels in the study population. A significant association was found between rise in Core Temperatures and WBGT exposures (p=0.000179) Elevated USG and SwR in the worker population indicate moderate dehydration, with potential risks of developing heat-related illnesses. In a steel industry with high heat exposures, an alarming 9% prevalence of kidney/urogenital anomalies was observed in a young workforce. Heat exposures above TLVs were associated with significantly increased odds of various adverse health outcomes (OR=2.43, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.13, p-value = <0.0001) and productivity losses (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.4, p-value = 0.0002). Rough estimates for the number of workers who would be subjected to higher than TLV levels in the various RCP scenarios are RCP2.6 =79%, RCP4.5 & RCP6 = 81% and at RCP 8.5 = 85%. Rising temperatures due to CC has the capacity to further reduce already compromised health and productivity by subjecting the workers to increased heat exposures in the RCP scenarios are of concern for the country’s occupational health and economy. Conclusion: The findings of this study clearly identify that health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in the Indian subcontinent and understanding the various adaptation techniques needs urgent attention. Further research with a multi-targeted approach to develop strategies for implementing interventions to protect the millions of workers is imperative. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the “Health in All Policies” approach to avert adverse health and productivity consequences as climate change proceeds.

Keywords: heat stress, occupational health, productivity loss, heat strain, adverse health outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

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— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Festus Okotie

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Nigeria is the giant of Africa with great and diverse transport potentials yet to be fully tapped into and explored.it is the most populated nation in Africa with nearly 200 million people, the sixth largest oil producer overall and largest oil producer in Africa with proven oil and gas reserves of 37 billion barrels and 192 trillion cubic feet, over 300 square kilometers of arable land and significant deposits of largely untapped minerals. A world bank indicator which measures trading across border ranked Nigeria at 183 out of 185 countries in 2017 and although different governments in the past made efforts through different interventions such as 2007 ports reforms led by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former minister of Finance and world bank managing director also attempted to resolve some of the challenges such as infrastructure shortcomings, policy and regulatory inconsistencies, overlapping functions and duplicated roles among the different MDA’S. It is one of the fundamental structures smart nations and cities are using to improve the living conditions of its citizens and achieving sustainability. Examples of some of its benefits includes tracking high pedestrian areas, traffic patterns, railway stations, planning and scheduling bus times, it also enhances interoperability, creates alerts of transport situation and has swift capacity to share information among the different platforms and transport modes. It also offers a comprehensive approach to risk management, putting emergency procedures and response capabilities in place, identifying dangers, including vandalism or violence, fare evasion, and medical emergencies. The Nigerian transport system is urgently in need of modern infrastructures such as ITS. Smart city transport technology helps cities to function productively, while improving services for businesses and lives of is citizens. This technology has the ability to improve travel across traditional modes of transport, such as cars and buses, with immediate benefits for city dwellers and also helps in managing transport systems such as dangerous weather conditions, heavy traffic, and unsafe speeds which can result in accidents and loss of lives. Intelligent transportation systems help in traffic control such as permitting traffic lights to react to changing traffic patterns, instead of working on a fixed schedule in traffic. Intelligent transportation systems is very important in Nigeria’s transportation sector and so would require trained personnel to drive its efficiency to greater height because the purpose of introducing it is to add value and at the same time reduce motor vehicle miles and traffic congestion which is a major challenge around Tin can island and Apapa Port, a major transportation hub in Nigeria. The need for the federal government, state governments, houses of assembly to organise a national transportation workshop to begin the process of addressing the challenges in our nation’s transport sector is highly expedient and so bills that will facilitate the implementation of policies to promote intelligent transportation systems needs to be sponsored because of its potentials to create thousands of jobs for our citizens, provide farmers with better access to cities and a better living condition for Nigerians.

Keywords: intelligent, transport, system, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Emmanuel Maiyanga

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Access to sufficiently good quality freshwater has been a global challenge, but more notably in low-income countries, particularly in the Sub-Saharan countries, which Nigeria is one. Urban population is soaring, especially in many low-income countries, the existing centralised water supply infrastructures are ageing and inadequate, moreover in households peoples’ lifestyles have become more water-demanding. So, people mostly device coping strategies where municipal supply is perceived to have failed. This development threatens the futures of groundwater and calls for a review of management strategy and research approach. The various issues associated with water demand management in low-income countries and Nigeria, in particular, are well documented in the literature. However, the way people use water daily in households and the reasons they do so, and how the situation is constructing demand among the middle-class population in Abuja Nigeria is poorly understood. This is what this research aims to unpack. This is achieved by using the social practices research approach (which is based on the Theory of Practices) to understand how this situation impacts on the shared groundwater resource. A qualitative method was used for data gathering. This involved audio-recorded interviews of householders and water professionals in the private and public sectors. It also involved observation, note-taking, and document study. The data were analysed thematically using NVIVO software. The research reveals the major household practices that draw on the water on a domestic scale, and they include water sourcing, body hygiene and sanitation, laundry, kitchen, and outdoor practices (car washing, domestic livestock farming, and gardening). Among all the practices, water sourcing, body hygiene, kitchen, and laundry practices, are identified to impact most on groundwater, with impact scale varying with household peculiarities. Water sourcing practices involve people sourcing mostly from personal boreholes because the municipal water supply is perceived inadequate and unreliable in terms of service delivery and water quality, and people prefer easier and unlimited access and control using boreholes. Body hygiene practices reveal that every respondent prefers bucket bathing at least once daily, and the majority bathe twice or more every day. Frequency is determined by the feeling of hotness and dirt on the skin. Thus, people bathe to cool down, stay clean, and satisfy perceived social, religious, and hygiene demand. Kitchen practice consumes water significantly as people run the tap for vegetable washing in daily food preparation and dishwashing after each meal. Laundry practice reveals that most people wash clothes most frequently (twice in a week) during hot and dusty weather, and washing with hands in basins and buckets is the most prevalent and water wasting due to soap overdose. The research also reveals poor water governance as a major cause of current inadequate municipal water delivery. The implication poor governance and widespread use of boreholes is an uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater to satisfy desired household practices, thereby putting the future of the shared aquifer at great risk of total depletion with attendant multiplying effects on the people and the environment and population continues to soar.

Keywords: boreholes, groundwater, household water practices, self-supply

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Bangun F., Crevits B., Bellet T., Banet A., Boy G. A., Katili I.

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This paper seeks the incoherencies in cognitive process during an accident of Powered Two Wheelers (PTW) by understanding the factual sequences of events and causal relations for each case of accident. The principle of this approach is undertaking in-depth investigations on case per case of PTW accidents based on elaborate data acquisitions on accident sites that officially stamped in Police Crash Report (PCRs) 2012 of Medan with criteria, involved at least one PTW and resulted in serious injury and fatalities. The analysis takes into account four modules: accident chronologies, perpetrator, and victims, injury surveillance, vehicles and road infrastructures, comprising of traffic facilities, road geometry, road alignments and weather. The proposal for improvement could have provided a favorable influence on the chain of functional processes and events leading to collision. Decision Aiding Processes (DAP) assists in structuring different entities at different decisional levels, as each of these entities has its own objectives and constraints. The entities (A) are classified into 6 groups of accidents: solo PTW accidents; PTW vs. PTW; PTW vs. pedestrian; PTW vs. motor-trishaw; and PTW vs. other vehicles and consecutive crashes. The entities are also distinguished into 4 decisional levels: level of road users and street systems; operational level (crash-attended police officers or CAPO and road engineers), tactical level (Regional Traffic Police, Department of Transportation, and Department of Public Work), and strategic level (Traffic Police Headquarters (TCPHI)), parliament, Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Public Work). These classifications will lead to conceptualization of Problem Situations (P) and Problem Formulations (I) in DAP context. The DAP concerns the sequences process of the incidents until the time the accident occurs, which can be modelled in terms of five activities of procedural rationality: identification on initial human features (IHF), investigation on proponents attributes (PrAT), on Injury Surveillance (IS), on the interaction between IHF and PrAt and IS (intercorrelation), then unravel the sequences of incidents; filtering and disclosure, which include: what needs to activate, modify or change or remove, what is new and what is priority. These can relate to the activation or modification or new establishment of law. The PrAt encompasses the problems of environmental, road infrastructure, road and traffic facilities, and road geometry. The evaluation model (MP) is generated to bridge P and I since MP is produced by the intercorrelations among IHF, PrAT and IS extracted from the PCRs 2012 of Medan. There are 7 findings of incoherences: lack of knowledge and awareness on the traffic regulations and the risks of accidents, especially when riding between 0 < x < 10 km from house, riding between 22 p.m.–05.30 a.m.; lack of engagements on procurement of IHF Data by CAPO; lack of competency of CAPO on data procurement in accident-sites; no intercorrelation among IHF and PrAt and IS in the database systems of PCRs; lack of maintenance and supervision on the availabilities and the capacities of traffic facilities and road infrastructure; instrumental bias with wash-back impacts towards the TCPHI; technical robustness with wash-back impacts towards the CAPO and TCPHI.

Keywords: decision aiding processes, evaluation model, PTW accidents, police crash reports

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Brooklyn Rushton, Michelle Rutty, Natalie Knowles, Daniel Scott

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As people are increasingly on the search for extraordinary experiences and connections with nature, adventure tourism is experiencing significant growth and providing tourists with life-changing experiences. Unlike built attraction-based tourism, adventure tourism relies entirely on natural heritage, which leaves communities dependent on adventure tourism extremely vulnerable to environmental and climatic changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that global climate change will influence the future of adventure tourism and mountain outdoor recreation opportunities on a global scale. Across Canada, more specifically, climate change is broadly anticipated to present risks for winter-snow sports, while opportunities are anticipated to arise for green season activities. These broad seasonal shifts do not account for the indirect impacts of climate change on adventure tourism, such as the cost of adaptation or the increase of natural hazards and the associated likelihood of accidents. While some research has examined the impact of climate change on natural environments that adventure tourism relies on, a very small body of research has specifically focused on guides’ perspectives or included hard adventure tourism activities. The guiding industry is unique, as guides are trained through an elegant blend of art and science to make decisions based on experience, observation, and intuition. While quantitative research can monitor change in natural environments, guides local knowledge can provide eye-witness accounts and outline what environmental changes mean for the future sustainability of adventure tourism. This research will capture the extensive knowledge of mountain guides to better understand the implications of climate change for mountain adventure and potential adaptive responses for the adventure tourism industry. This study uses a structured online survey with open and close-ended questions that will be administered using Qualtrics (an online survey platform). This survey is disseminated to current members of the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG). Participation in this study will be exclusive to members of the ACMG operating in the outdoor guiding streams. The 25 survey questions are organized into four sections: demographic and professional operation (9 questions), physical change (4 questions), climate change perception (6 questions), and climate change adaptation (6 questions). How mountain guides perceive and respond to climate change is important knowledge for the future of the expanding adventure tourism industry. Results from this study are expected to provide important information to mountain destinations on climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Expected results of this study include guides insight into: (1) experience-safety relevant observed physical changes in guided regions (i.e. glacial coverage, permafrost coverage, precipitation, temperature, and slope instability) (2) changes in hazards within the guiding environment (i.e. avalanches, rockfall, icefall, forest fires, flooding, and extreme weather events), (3) existing and potential adaptation strategies, and (4) key information and other barriers for adaptation. By gaining insight from the knowledge of mountain guides, this research can help the tourism industry at large understand climate risk and create adaptation strategies to ensure the resiliency of the adventure tourism industry.

Keywords: adventure tourism, climate change, environmental change, mountain hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Caroline Spencer, Suzanne Cross, Dudley McArdle, Frank Archer

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Objectives: The evolution of the Victorian Compendium of Community-Based Resilience Building Case Studies and its capacity to help communities implement activities that encourage adaptation to disaster risk reduction and promote community resilience in rural and urban locations provide this paper's objectives. Background: Between 2012 and 2019, community groups presented at the Monash University Disaster Resilience Initiative (MUDRI) 'Advancing Community Resilience Annual Forums', provided opportunities for communities to impart local resilience activities, how to solve challenges and share unforeseen learning and be considered for inclusion in the Compendium. A key tenet of the Compendium encourages compiling and sharing of grass-roots resilience building activities to help communities before, during, and after unexpected emergencies. The online Compendium provides free access for anyone wanting to help communities build expertise, reduce program duplication, and save valuable community resources. Identifying case study features across the emergency phases and analyzing critical success factors helps communities understand what worked and what did not work to achieve success and avoid known barriers. International exemplars inform the Compendium, which represents an Australian first and enhances Victorian community resilience initiatives. Emergency Management Victoria provided seed funding for the Compendium. MUDRI matched this support and continues to fund the project. A joint Steering Committee with broad-based user input and Human ethics approval guides its continued growth. Methods: A thematic analysis of the Compendium identified case study features, including critical success factors. Results: The Compendium comprises 38 case studies, representing all eight Victorian regions. Case studies addressed emergency phases, before (29), during (7), and after (17) events. Case studies addressed all hazards (23), bushfires (11), heat (2), fire safety (1), and house fires (1). Twenty case studies used a framework. Thirty received funding, of which nine received less than $20,000 and five received more than $100,000. Twenty-nine addressed a whole of community perspective. Case studies revealed unique and valuable learning in diverse settings. Critical success factors included strong governance; board support, leadership, and trust; partnerships; commitment, adaptability, and stamina; community-led initiatives. Other success factors included a paid facilitator and local government support; external funding, and celebrating success. Anecdotally, we are aware that community groups reference Compendium and that its value adds to community resilience planning. Discussion: The Compendium offers an innovative contribution to resilience research and practice. It augments the seven resilience characteristics to strengthen and encourage communities as outlined in the Statewide Community Resilience Framework for Emergency Management; brings together people from across sectors to deliver distinct, yet connected actions to strengthen resilience as a part of the Rockefeller funded Resilient Melbourne Strategy, and supports communities and economies to be resilient when a shock occurs as identified in the recently published Australian National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework. Each case study offers learning about connecting with community and how to increase their resilience to disaster risks and to keep their community safe from unexpected emergencies. Conclusion: The Compendium enables diverse communities to adopt or adapt proven resilience activities, thereby preserving valuable community resources and offers the opportunity to extend to a national or international Compendium.

Keywords: case study, community, compendium, disaster risk reduction, resilience

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Authors: Ankush, Harshit Sosan Lakra, Rachita Kuthial

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Climate change poses significant challenges to vulnerable communities, particularly indigenous populations in ecologically sensitive regions. Jharkhand, located in the heart of India, is home to several indigenous communities, including the Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs). The Indigenous architecture of the region functions as a significant reservoir of climate adaptation wisdom. It explores the architectural analysis encompassing the construction materials, construction techniques, design principles, climate responsiveness, cultural relevance, adaptation, integration with the environment and traditional wisdom that has evolved through generations, rooted in cultural and socioeconomic traditions, and has allowed these communities to thrive in a variety of climatic zones, including hot and dry, humid, and hilly terrains to withstand the test of time. Despite their historical resilience to adverse climatic conditions, PVTG tribal communities face new and amplified challenges due to the accelerating pace of climate change. There is a significant research void that exists in assimilating their traditional practices and local wisdom into contemporary climate resilience initiatives. Most of the studies place emphasis on technologically advanced solutions, often ignoring the invaluable Indigenous Local knowledge that can complement and enhance these efforts. This research gap highlights the need to bridge the disconnect between indigenous knowledge and contemporary climate adaptation strategies. The study aims to explore and leverage indigenous knowledge of vernacular architecture as a strategic tool for enhancing climatic resilience among PVTGs of the region. The first objective is to understand the traditional wisdom of vernacular architecture by analyzing and documenting distinct architectural practices and cultural significance of PVTG communities, emphasizing construction techniques, materials and spatial planning. The second objective is to develop culturally sensitive climatic resilience strategies based on findings of vernacular architecture by employing a multidisciplinary research approach that encompasses ethnographic fieldwork climate data assessment considering multiple variables such as temperature variations, precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and climate change reports. This will be a tailor-made solution integrating indigenous knowledge with modern technology and sustainable practices. With the involvement of indigenous communities in the process, the research aims to ensure that the developed strategies are practical, culturally appropriate, and accepted. To foster long-term resilience against the global issue of climate change, we can bridge the gap between present needs and future aspirations with Traditional wisdom, offering sustainable solutions that will empower PVTG communities. Moreover, the study emphasizes the significance of preserving and reviving traditional Architectural wisdom for enhancing climatic resilience. It also highlights the need for cooperative endeavors of communities, stakeholders, policymakers, and researchers to encourage integrating traditional Knowledge into Modern sustainable design methods. Through these efforts, this research will contribute not only to the well-being of PVTG communities but also to the broader global effort to build a more resilient and sustainable future. Also, the Indigenous communities like PVTG in the state of Jharkhand can achieve climatic resilience while respecting and safeguarding the cultural heritage and peculiar characteristics of its native population.

Keywords: vernacular architecture, climate change, resilience, PVTGs, Jharkhand, indigenous people, India

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Authors: Carmen García Sánchez

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The UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals – specifically the nº 3 and nº 11- urgently call for new architectural design solutions at different design scales to increase human contact with nature in the health and wellbeing promotion of primarily urban communities. The discipline of Interior Design offers an important alternative to large-scale nature-inclusive actions which are not always possible due to space limitations. These circumstances provide an immense opportunity to integrate biophilic design, a complex emerging and under-developed approach that pursues sustainable design strategies for increasing the human-nature connection through the experience of the built environment. Biophilic design explores the diverse ways humans are inherently inclined to affiliate with nature, attach meaning to and derive benefit from the natural world. It represents a biological understanding of architecture which categorization is still in progress. The internationally renowned Danish domestic architecture built in the 1950´s and early 1960´s - a golden age of Danish modern architecture - left a leading legacy that has greatly influenced the domestic sphere and has further led the world in terms of good design and welfare. This study examines how four existing post-war domestic buildings establish a dialogue with nature and her variations over time. The case-studies unveil both memorable and unique biophilic resources through sophisticated and original design expressions, where transformative processes connect the users to the natural setting and reflect fundamental ways in which they attach meaning to the place. In addition, fascinating analogies in terms of this nature interaction with particular traditional Japanese architecture inform the research. They embody prevailing lessons for our time today. The research methodology is based on a thorough literature review combined with a phenomenological analysis into how these case-studies contribute to the connection between humans and nature, after conducting fieldwork throughout varying seasons to document understanding in nature transformations multi-sensory perception (via sight, touch, sound, smell, time and movement) as a core research strategy. The cases´ most outstanding features have been studied attending the following key parameters: 1. Space: 1.1. Relationships (itineraries); 1.2. Measures/scale; 2. Context: Context: Landscape reading in different weather/seasonal conditions; 3. Tectonic: 3.1. Constructive joints, elements assembly; 3.2. Structural order; 4. Materiality: 4.1. Finishes, 4.2. Colors; 4.3. Tactile qualities; 5. Daylight interplay. Departing from an artistic-scientific exploration this groundbreaking study provides sustainable practical design strategies, perspectives, and inspiration to boost humans´ contact with nature through the experience of the interior built environment. Some strategies are associated with access to outdoor space or require ample space, while others can thrive in a dense urban context without direct access to the natural environment. The objective is not only to produce knowledge, but to phase in biophilic design in the built environment, expanding its theory and practice into a new dimension. Its long-term vision is to efficiently enhance the health and well-being of urban communities through daily interaction with Nature.

Keywords: sustainability, biophilic design, architectural design, interior design, nature, Danish architecture, Japanese architecture

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mohiuddin

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Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world, and ranks low on almost all measures of economic development, thus leaving the population extremely vulnerable to natural disasters and climate events. 20% of GDP come from agriculture but more than 60% of the population relies on agriculture as their main source of income making the entire economy vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. High population density exacerbates the exposure to and effect of climate events, and increases the levels of vulnerability, as does the poor institutional development of the country. The most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts in Bangladesh are agriculture, coastal zones, water resources, forestry, fishery, health, biomass, and energy. High temperatures, heavy rainfall, high humidity and fairly marked seasonal variations characterize the climate in Bangladesh: Mild winter, hot humid summer and humid, warm rainy monsoon. Much of the country is flooded during the summer monsoon. The Department of Environment (DOE) under the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) is the focal point for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and coordinates climate related activities in the country. Recently, a Climate Change Cell (CCC) has been established to address several issues including adaptation to climate change. The climate change focus started with The National Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP) which was prepared in 1995 in order to initiate the process to address environmental and climate change issues as long-term environmental problems for Bangladesh. Bangladesh was one of the first countries to finalise a NAPA (Preparation of a National Adaptation Plan of Action) which addresses climate change issues. The NAPA was completed in 2005, and is the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation to national policies and actions to cope with climate change and vulnerability. The NAPA suggests a number of adaptation strategies, for example: - Providing drinking water to coastal communities to fight the enhanced salinity caused by sea level rise, - Integrating climate change in planning and design of infrastructure, - Including climate change issues in education, - Supporting adaptation of agricultural systems to new weather extremes, - Mainstreaming CCA into policies and programmes in different sectors, e.g. disaster management, water and health, - Dissemination of CCA information and awareness raising on enhanced climate disasters, especially in vulnerable communities. Bangladesh has geared up its environment conservation steps to save the world’s poorest countries from the adverse effects of global warming. Now it is turning towards green economy policies to save the degrading ecosystem. Bangladesh is a developing country and always fights against Natural Disaster. At the same time we also fight for establishing ecological environment through promoting Green Economy/Energy by Youth Networking. ANTAR is coordinating a big Youth Network in the southern part of Bangladesh where 30 Youth group involved. It can be explained as the economic development based on sustainable development which generates growth and improvement in human’s lives while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. Green economy in Bangladesh promotes three bottom lines – sustaining economic, environment and social well-being.

Keywords: resilience, networking, mobilizing, resource

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Authors: Tehrrie Konig, Cassiano Bortolozo, Daniel Metodiev, Rodolfo Mendes, Marcio Andrade, Marcio Moraes

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Gravitational mass movements are recurrent events in Brazil, usually triggered by intense rainfall. When these events occur in urban areas, they end up becoming disasters due to the economic damage, social impact, and loss of human life. To identify the landslide-susceptible areas, it is important to know the geotechnical parameters of the soil, such as cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic diffusivity. The measurement of these parameters is made by collecting soil samples to analyze in the laboratory and by using geophysical methodologies, such as Vertical Electrical Survey (VES). The geophysical surveys analyze the soil properties with minimal impact in its initial structure. Statistical analysis and mathematical models of physical basis are used to model and calculate the Factor of Safety for steep slope areas. In general, such mathematical models work from the combination of slope stability models and hydrological models. One example is the mathematical model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope- Stability Model) which calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety of a determined study area. The model relies on changes in pore-pressure and soil moisture during a rainfall event. TRIGRS was written in the Fortran programming language and associates the hydrological model, which is based on the Richards Equation, with the stability model based on the principle of equilibrium limit. Therefore, the aims of this work are modeling the slope stability of Campos do Jordão with TRIGRS, using geotechnical and geophysical methodologies to acquire the soil properties. The study area is located at southern-east of Sao Paulo State in the Mantiqueira Mountains and has a historic landslide register. During the fieldwork, soil samples were collected, and the VES method applied. These procedures provide the soil properties, which were used as input data in the TRIGRS model. The hydrological data (infiltration rate and initial water table height) and rainfall duration and intensity, were acquired from the eight rain gauges installed by Cemaden in the study area. A very high spatial resolution digital terrain model was used to identify the slopes declivity. The analyzed period is from March 6th to March 8th of 2017. As results, the TRIGRS model calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety within a 72-hour period in which two heavy rainfall events stroke the area and six landslides were registered. After each rainfall, the Factor of Safety declined, as expected. The landslides happened in areas identified by the model with low values of Factor of Safety, proving its efficiency on the identification of landslides susceptible areas. This study presents a critical threshold for landslides, in which an accumulated rainfall higher than 80mm/m² in 72 hours might trigger landslides in urban and natural slopes. The geotechnical and geophysics methods are shown to be very useful to identify the soil properties and provide the geological characteristics of the area. Therefore, the combine geotechnical and geophysical methods for soil characterization and the modeling of landslides susceptible areas with TRIGRS are useful for urban planning. Furthermore, early warning systems can be developed by combining the TRIGRS model and weather forecast, to prevent disasters in urban slopes.

Keywords: landslides, susceptibility, TRIGRS, vertical electrical survey

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Authors: Yiqi Zhu, Jean Francois Trani, Rameez Ulhassan

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Extreme weather phenomena increased by 46% between 2007 and 2017 and have become more intense with the rise in global average temperatures. This increased intensity of climate variations often induces humanitarian crises and particularly affects vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Expectant and lactating mothers are among the most vulnerable groups. Pakistan ranks 10th among the most affected countries by climate disasters. In 2022, monsoon floods submerged a third of the country, causing the loss of 1,500 lives. Approximately 650,000 expectant and lactating mothers faced systematic stress from climatic disasters. Our study used participatory methods to investigate the systematic impact of climatic disasters on maternal health. In March 2023, we conducted six Group Model Building (GMB) workshops with healthcare workers, fathers, and mothers separately in two of the most affected areas in Pakistan. This study was approved by the Islamic Relief Research Review Board. GMB workshops consist of three sessions. In the first session, participants discussed the factors that impact maternal health. After identifying the factors, they discussed the connections among them and explored the system structures that collectively impact maternal health. Based on the discussion, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was created. Finally, participants discussed action ideas that could improve the system to enhance maternal health. Based on our discussions and the causal loop diagram, we identified interconnected factors at the family, community, and policy levels. Mothers and children are directly impacted by three interrelated factors: food insecurity, unstable housing, and lack of income. These factors create a reinforcing cycle that negatively affects both mothers and newborns. After the flood, many mothers were unable to produce sufficient breastmilk due to their health status. Without breastmilk and sufficient food for complementary feeding, babies tend to get sick in damp and unhygienic environments resulting from temporary or unstable housing. When parents take care of sick children, they miss out on income-generating opportunities. At the community level, the lack of access to clean water and sanitation (WASH) and maternal healthcare further worsens the situation. Structural failures such as a lack of safety nets and programs associated with flood preparedness make families increasingly vulnerable with each disaster. Several families reported that they had not fully recovered from a flood that occurred ten years ago, and this latest disaster destroyed their lives again. Although over twenty non-profit organizations are working in these villages, few of them provide sustainable support. Therefore, participants called for systemic changes in response to the increasing frequency of climate disasters. The study reveals the systematic vulnerabilities of mothers and children after climatic disasters. The most vulnerable populations are often affected the most by climate change. Collaborative efforts are required to improve water and forest management, strengthen public infrastructure, increase access to WASH, and gradually build climate-resilient communities. Governments, non-governmental organizations, and the community should work together to develop and implement effective strategies to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to climate change and its impacts.

Keywords: climatic disasters, maternal health, Pakistan, systematic impact, flood, disaster relief.

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