Search results for: least squares estimation

Authors: Mohammad Haghighi, Amineh Akhondi, Leila Jahangard, Mohammad Ahmadpanah, Masoud Ansari

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Background: According to the recent estimation, approximately 4%-12% percent of Iranians have difficulty in learning to read and spell possibly as a result of developmental dyslexia. The study was planned to investigate spelling error patterns among Persian children with developmental dyslexia and compare that with the errors exhibited by control groups Participants: 90 students participated in this study. 30 students from Grade level five, diagnosed as dyslexics by professionals, 30 normal 5th Grade readers and 30 younger normal readers. There were 15 boys and 15 girls in each of the groups. Qualitative and quantitative methods for analysis of errors were used. Results and conclusion: results of this study indicate similar spelling error profiles among dyslexics and the reading level matched groups, and these profiles were different from age-matched group. However, performances of dyslexic group and reading level matched group were different and inconsistent in some cases.

Keywords: spelling, error types, developmental dyslexia, Persian, writing system, learning disabilities, processing

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Authors: Yadpiroon Onmek, Jean Triboulet, Sebastien Druon, Bruno Jouvencel

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The objective of this paper is to develop the 3D underwater reconstruction of archaeology object, which is based on the fusion between a sonar system and stereo camera system. The underwater images are obtained from a calibrated camera system. The multiples image pairs are input, and we first solve the problem of image processing by applying the well-known filter, therefore to improve the quality of underwater images. The features of interest between image pairs are selected by well-known methods: a FAST detector and FLANN descriptor. Subsequently, the RANSAC method is applied to reject outlier points. The putative inliers are matched by triangulation to produce the local sparse point clouds in 3D space, using a pinhole camera model and Euclidean distance estimation. The SFM technique is used to carry out the global sparse point clouds. Finally, the ICP method is used to fusion the sonar information with the stereo model. The final 3D models have a précised by measurement comparing with the real object.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction, archaeology, fusion, stereo system, sonar system, underwater

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Authors: Piyush Hajela

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Public spaces in Indian market places are vibrant, colorful and carry latent dimensions that make them attractive and popular gathering spaces. These markets satisfy the household needs of the people and also their social, cultural and traditional aspirations. Going to a market place for shopping in India is a great source of entertainment for the people. They would love to spend as much time as possible and stay for longer durations than otherwise required. It is this desire of the people that generates public spaces. Much of these public spaces emerge as squares, plazas, corners of varied shapes and sizes at different locations, and yet provide a conducive environment. Such public spaces grow organically and are discovered by the people themselves. Indian markets serve people of different culture, religion, caste, age, gender which keeps them alive all the year round. Indian is a diverse country and this diversity is reflected clearly in the market places. They hold the people together and promote harmony across cultures. Free access to these market places makes them magnets for social interaction. Public spaces are spread across a city and more or less have established their existence and prominence in a social set up. While few of them are created, others are discovered by the people themselves in their constant search for desirable interactive public spaces. These are the most sought after gathering spaces that have the quality of promoting social interaction, providing free accessibility, provide desirable scale etc. The paper aims at identifying these freely accessible public spaces and the dimensions within it that make these public spaces hold the people for significant duration of time. The dimensions present shall be judged through collective response of human senses in form of safety, comfort and so on through the expressions of the participants. The aim therefore would be to trace the freely accessible public spaces emerged in Indian markets and evaluate them for human response and behavior. The hierarchy of market places in the city of Bhopal is well established as, city center level, sub city-center level, community level, local and convenient level market places. While many city-centers are still referred to as the old or traditional or the core area of the city, the others are part of the planned city. These different levels of market places are studied for emerged public spaces. These emerged public spaces are then documented in detail for unveiling the dimensions they offer through, photographs, visual observations, questionnaires and response of the participants of these public spaces.

Keywords: human comfort, enclosure, safety, social interaction

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Authors: Farag Ahwide, Souhel Bousheha

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A technical assessment has been made of electricity generation, considering wind turbines ranging between Vestas (V80-2.0 MW and V112-3.0 MW) and the air density is equal to 1.225 Kg/m3, at different towns in Libya. Wind speed might have been measured each 3 hours during 10 m stature at a time for 10 quite sometime between 2000 Furthermore 2009, these towns which are spotted on the bank from claiming Mediterranean ocean also how in the desert, which need aid Derna 1, Derna 2, Shahat, Benghazi, Ajdabya, Sirte, Misurata, Tripoli-Airport, Al-Zawya, Al-Kofra, Sabha, Nalut. The work presented long term "wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, monthly and diurnal variations at these sites. Wind power density with different heights has been studied. Excel sheet program was used to calculate the values of wind power density and the values of wind speed frequency for the stations; their seasonally values have been estimated. Limit variable with rated wind pace to 10 different wind turbines need to be been estimated, which is used to focus those required yearly vitality yield of a wind vitality change framework (WECS), acknowledging wind turbines extending between 600 kW and 3000 kW).

Keywords: energy yield, wind turbines, wind speed, wind power density

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Authors: Flavio Contrera, Paulo Cesar Gregorio

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Recent political developments and government control actions in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic draw attention to the contrast between the duties of government and the demands of democratic representation. Elected by mobilizing far-right issues, Trump and Bolsonaro moved away from the WHO guidelines but had to accommodate demands on the health and on the social protection system on the one hand and demands from the economic sector on the other. This study used the MARPOR Project method to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the issue and ideological congruence between the electoral and governmental arena in both the Trump and Bolsonaro Administrations. Findings reveal issue congruence between arenas in "National Way of Life: Positive", "Law and Order," and "Technology and Infrastructure" for Donald Trump, and "Welfare State Expansion" for Bolsonaro. Ideological estimation results show that Trump and Bolsonaro positioned to the right in their presidential elections, initially moved to the center-right. However, welfare policies actions at high frequency during the COVID-19 pandemic moved the ideological estimations of both governments to the center-left, despite their denial rhetoric.

Keywords: congruence, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro

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Authors: Amir Mukhtar, Dr. Likun Xia

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An improved, robust and efficient visual target tracking algorithm using particle filtering is proposed. Particle filtering has been proven very successful in estimating non-Gaussian and non-linear problems. In this paper, the particle filter is used with color feature to estimate the target state with time. Color distributions are applied as this feature is scale and rotational invariant, shows robustness to partial occlusion and computationally efficient. The performance is made more robust by choosing the different (YIQ) color scheme. Tracking is performed by comparison of chrominance histograms of target and candidate positions (particles). Color based particle filter tracking often leads to inaccurate results when light intensity changes during a video stream. Furthermore, background subtraction technique is used for size estimation of the target. The qualitative evaluation of proposed algorithm is performed on several real-world videos. The experimental results demonstrate that the improved algorithm can track the moving objects very well under illumination changes, occlusion and moving background.

Keywords: tracking, particle filter, histogram, corner points, occlusion, illumination

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Authors: Daniel Gredig, Annabelle Bartelsen-Raemy

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Social work professionals should underpin their decisions with scientific knowledge and research findings. Hence, research is used as a framework for social work education and research courses have become a taken-for-granted component of study programmes. However, it has been acknowledged that social work students have negative beliefs and attitudes as well as frequently feelings of fear of research courses. Against this background, the present study aimed to establish the relationship between student’s fear of research courses, their research orientation and interest in research courses. We hypothesized that fear predicts the interest in research courses. Further, we hypothesized that research orientation (perceived importance and attributed usefulness for research for social work practice and perceived unbiased nature of research) was a mediating variable. In the years 2014, 2015 and 2016, we invited students enrolled for a bachelor programme in social work in Switzerland to participate in the study during their introduction day to the school taking place two weeks before their programme started. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered on-line questionnaire filled in on site. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (generalized least squares estimates method). The sample included 708 students enrolled in a social work bachelor-programme, 501 being female, 184 male, and 5 intersexual, aged 19–56, having various entitlements to study, and registered for three different types of programme modes (full time programme; part time study with field placements in blocks; part time study involving concurrent field placement). Analysis showed that the interest in research courses was predicted by fear of research courses (β = -0.29) as well as by the perceived importance (β = 0.27), attributed usefulness of research (β = 0.15) and perceived unbiased nature of research (β = 0.08). These variables were predicted, in turn, by fear of research courses (β = -0.10, β = -0.23, and β = -0.13). Moreover, interest was predicted by age (β = 0.13). Fear of research courses was predicted by age (β = -0.10) female gender (β = 0.28) and having completed a general baccalaureate (β = -0.09). (GFI = 0.997, AGFI = 0.988, SRMR = 0.016, CMIN/df = 0.946, adj. R2 = 0.312). Findings evidence a direct as well as a mediated impact of fear on the interest in research courses in entering first-year students in a social work bachelor-programme. It highlights one of the challenges social work education in a research framework has to meet with. It seems, there have been considerable efforts to address the research orientation of students. However, these findings point out that, additionally, research anxiety in terms of fear of research courses should be considered and addressed by teachers when conceptualizing research courses.

Keywords: research anxiety, research courses, research interest, research orientation, social work students, teaching

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The primary purpose of this study is to develop a methodological framework to predict daily subway ridership at a station-level and to examine the association between subway ridership and bus demand incorporating commercial business facility in the vicinity of each subway station. The socio-economic characteristics, land-use, and built environment as factors may have an impact on subway ridership. However, it should be considered not only the endogenous relationship between bus and subway demand but also the characteristics of commercial business within a subway station’s sphere of influence, and integrated transit network topology. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, therefore it should be considered endogeneity and heteroscedastic issues which might have in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of bus demand, commercial business characteristics, and network topology on subway ridership and developing more precise subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers entire Seoul city in South Korea and includes 243 stations with the temporal scope set at twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The data for subway and bus ridership was collected Seoul Smart Card data from 2015 and 2016. Three-Stage Least Square(3SLS) approach was applied to develop daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity and heteroscedasticity between bus and subway demand. Independent variables incorporating in the modeling process were commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. As a result, it was found that bus ridership and subway ridership were endogenous each other and they had a significantly positive sign of coefficients which means one transit mode could increase another transportation mode’s ridership. In other words, two transit modes of subway and bus have a mutual relationship instead of the competitive relationship. The commercial business characteristics are the most critical dimension among the independent variables. The variables of commercial business facility rate in the paper containing six types; medical, educational, recreational, financial, food service, and shopping. From the model result, a higher rate in medical, financial buildings, shopping, and food service facility lead to increment of subway ridership at a station, while recreational and educational facility shows lower subway ridership. The complex network theory was applied for estimating integrated network topology measures that cover the entire Seoul transit network system, and a framework for seeking an impact on subway ridership. The centrality measures were found to be significant and showed a positive sign indicating higher centrality led to more subway ridership at a station level. The results of model accuracy tests by out of samples provided that 3SLS model has less mean square error rather than OLS and showed the methodological approach for the 3SLS model was plausible to estimate more accurate subway ridership. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (2017R1C1B2010175).

Keywords: subway ridership, bus ridership, commercial business characteristic, endogeneity, network topology

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Authors: Mishari AlNaim

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A field experiment was conducted for two seasons of 2011 and 2012 in The Agricultural Experiment Research Station in King Faisal University at Al-Hasa region, Saudi Arabia to estimate evapotranspiration (ETC) of Eggplant crop using Drainage Lysimeter with surface area of 2 x 2 m and depth of 1.5 m. The irrigation was applied daily. The amount of drainage was measured before each irrigation event. The results showed that there was almost no difference in the seasonal evapotranspiration of eggplant crop in the two seasons. The average evapotranspiration values for eggplant crop for the summer and winter seasons were 823.4 mm and 479.7 mm respectively. The highest and the lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two summer seasons were 8.6 mm/day and 3.9 mm/day respectively, while the highest and lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two winter seasons were 3.9 mm/day and 2.0 mm/day respectively. The measured values of ETc, in conjunction with the results of Penmen-Monteith equation for reference Evapotranspiration (ETR), were used to determine the crop coefficient (KC ini, KC mid and KC end) for eggplant crop. The average values were 0.50, 84 and 0.60 for KC ini, KC mid and KC end in Al-Hasa region, respectively. These estimated values for KC were used to approximate (ETc) for eggplant crop. High positive correlation coefficient (0.959) was detected between the approximated and measured values of eggplant crop evapotranspiration.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, eggpant, ETC, Al-Hasa

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Authors: Piyush Hajela

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The significance of public spaces is on a rise in Indian cities as a strong interaction space across cultures and community. It is a pertinent gathering space for people across age and gender, where the face keeps changing with time. A public space is directly related to the social dimension, people, comfort, safety, and security, that, it proposes to provide, as inherent qualities. The presence of these and other dimensions of space, together with related equitable environments, impart certain quality to a public space. The higher the optimum contents of these dimensions, the better the quality of public space. Public is represented by PEOPLE through society and community, and space is created by dimensions. Society contains children, women and the elderly, community is composed of social, and religious groups. These behave differently in a different setting and call for varied quality of spaces, created and generated. Public spaces are spread across a city and have more or less established their existence and prominence in a social set up. While few of them are created others are discovered by the people themselves in their constant search for desirable interactive public spaces. These are the most sought after gathering spaces that have the quality of promoting social interaction, providing free accessibility, provide desirable scale etc. The emergence of public space dates back to the times when people started forming communities, display cultures and traditions publicly, gathered for religious observations and celebrations, and address the society. Traditional cities and societies in India were feudal and orthodox in their nature and yet had public spaces. When the gathering of people at one point in a city became more frequent the point became more accessible and occupied. Baras (large courts, Chowks (public squares) and Maidans (large grounds) became well-known gathering spaces in the towns and cities. As the population grew such points grew in number, each becoming a public space in itself and with a different and definite social character. The author aims at studying the various dimensions of public spaces with which a public space has power to hold people for a significant period of time. The human senses here are note referred to as taste, sight, hearing, touch or smell, but how human senses collectively respond to when stationed in a given public space. The collectives may reflect in dimensions like comfort, safety, environment, freedom etc. Various levels of similar other responses would be studied through interviews, observations and other scientific methods for both qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Keywords: society, interaction, people, accessibility, comfort, enclosure

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Authors: Petra Dilling

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This study examines the market reaction to the publication of integrated reports for a sample of 316 global companies for the reporting year 2018. Applying event study methodology, we find significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) after the publication date. To ensure robust estimation resultsthe three-factor model, according to Fama and French, is used as well as a market-adjusted model, a CAPM and a Frama-French model taking GARCH effects into account. We find a significant positive CAAR after the publication day of the integrated report. Our results suggest that investors react to information provided in the integrated report and that they react differently to the annual financial report. Furthermore, our cross-sectional analysis confirms that companies with a significant positive cumulative average abnormal show certain characteristic. It was found that European companies have a higher likelihood to experience a stronger significant positive market reaction to their integrated report publication.

Keywords: integrated report, event methodology, cumulative abnormal return, sustainability, CAPM

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: Wangshi Yong, Wei Shi, Jing Zou, Qiang Li, Yilin Tian

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With the advancement of the reform of China’s housing security system, the impact is becoming increasingly profound. This paper explores the relationship between the housing security system and household entrepreneurship on the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and conducts a large number of robustness checks, including PSM and IV estimation. The results show that the assistance of the housing security system will significantly promote family entrepreneurship, increasing the probability of entrepreneurship by 2%. Its internal mechanism is mainly achieved by relaxing liquidity constraints and increasing household social capital. However, the risk preference effect has not existed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of the housing security system on family entrepreneurship is mainly reflected in areas with high housing prices and incomes, as well as households with long-term security and social or commercial insurance. Meanwhile, it also verifies that the positive externalities of the housing security system will also positively affect active entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurial intensity, and entrepreneurial innovation.

Keywords: the housing security system, household entrepreneurship, social capital, liquidity constraints, risk preference

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Authors: Valerian Omsarashvili, Nino Jamrishvili

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Georgia is one of the hail-dangerous countries of world. The work on action on hail processes in Georgia was conducted in 1960-1989 (East Georgia) over the total area of approximately 1.2 million hectares with average positive economic effect near 75 %. In 2015 in East Georgia, the anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, for the estimation of the effectiveness of action on the hail processes at present, arose the need for the detailed analysis of damage from the hail in the past. The work presents the analysis of the data about the number of days with the hail, the areas of damage of agricultural crops (general and to 100 %), and also the economic damage from the hail, of the caused loss to agricultural crops on the territories land of 123 separate populated areas of into 1982 and 1984-1989. In particular, on the average to one populated area, the total area of agricultural crops damaged from the hail was approximately 140 hectares, to 100% damage - 60 hectares, economic damage - 120 thousand US dollars. The corresponding maps of the distribution of the damaged areas on the investigated territory with the use of GIS-technologies are obtained.

Keywords: damage to agricultural crops, hail, Georgia, economic damage

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Authors: Tahere Fazilat

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Caspian red deer or maral (Cervus elaphus maral) is the largest type of deer in iran. Maral in the past has lived in the north forests of Iran from the Caspian sea coast, Alborz mountains chain and oak forest of Zagros margin from the Azarbaijan up to fars province. However, the generation of them was completely destroyed in the north west and west of Iran. According to reports about 50 years and out of reach of humans. In the present studies, data were collected from 2004 to 2014 in the Mazandaran state Hyrcanian forest by means of guard of environment and justiciary office of department of environment of Mazandaran in this process the all arrested illegal hunting of red deer and the population census, estimation and the correlation of these data was assayed. We provide a first evaluation of how suitable these methods are by comparing the results with population estimates obtained using cohort analysis, and by analyzing the within-season variation in number of seen deer. The data gave us the future of red deer in northern forest of Iran and the results of policy of department of environment in Iran in red deer conservation.

Keywords: illegal hunting, red deer, census, concervation

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Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

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Authors: R. Kiran, B. R. Lakshmikantha, R. V. Parimala

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Secure operation of power systems requires monitoring of the system operating conditions. Phasor measurement units (PMU) are the device, which uses synchronized signals from the GPS satellites, and provide the phasors information of voltage and currents at a given substation. The optimal locations for the PMUs must be determined, in order to avoid redundant use of PMUs. The objective of this paper is to make system observable by using minimum number of PMUs & the implementation of stability software at 22OkV grid for on-line estimation of the power system transfer capability based on voltage and thermal limitations and for security monitoring. This software utilizes State Estimator (SE) and synchrophasor PMU data sets for determining the power system operational margin under normal and contingency conditions. This software improves security of transmission system by continuously monitoring operational margin expressed in MW or in bus voltage angles, and alarms the operator if the margin violates a pre-defined threshold.

Keywords: state estimator (SE), flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS), optimal location, phasor measurement units (PMU)

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Authors: Manar Amayri, Hussain Kazimi, Quoc-Dung Ngo, Stephane Ploix

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A general approach is proposed to determine occupant behavior (occupancy and activity) in residential buildings and to use these estimates for improved energy management. Occupant behaviour is modelled with a Bayesian Network in an unsupervised manner. This algorithm makes use of domain knowledge gathered via questionnaires and recorded sensor data for motion detection, power, and hot water consumption as well as indoor CO₂ concentration. Two case studies are presented which show the real world applicability of estimating occupant behaviour in this way. Furthermore, experiments integrating occupancy estimation and hot water production control show that energy efficiency can be increased by roughly 5% over known optimal control techniques and more than 25% over rule-based control while maintaining the same occupant comfort standards. The efficiency gains are strongly correlated with occupant behaviour and accuracy of the occupancy estimates.

Keywords: energy, management, control, optimization, Bayesian methods, learning theory, sensor networks, knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems, artificial intelligence, buildings

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Authors: Alexander E. Hramov, Vadim V. Grubov, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Maria K. Kurovskaуa, Anastasija E. Runnova

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The perception of visual signals in the brain was among the first issues discussed in terms of multistability which has been introduced to provide mechanisms for information processing in biological neural systems. In this work the influence of the cognitive noise on the visual perception of multistable pictures has been investigated. The study includes an experiment with the bistable Necker cube illusion and the theoretical background explaining the obtained experimental results. In our experiments Necker cubes with different wireframe contrast were demonstrated repeatedly to different people and the probability of the choice of one of the cubes projection was calculated for each picture. The Necker cube was placed at the middle of a computer screen as black lines on a white background. The contrast of the three middle lines centered in the left middle corner was used as one of the control parameter. Between two successive demonstrations of Necker cubes another picture was shown to distract attention and to make a perception of next Necker cube more independent from the previous one. Eleven subjects, male and female, of the ages 20 through 45 were studied. The choice of the Necker cube projection was detected with the Electroencephalograph-recorder Encephalan-EEGR-19/26, Medicom MTD. To treat the experimental results we carried out theoretical consideration using the simplest double-well potential model with the presence of noise that led to the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density of the stochastic process. At the first time an analytical solution for the probability of the selection of one of the Necker cube projection for different values of wireframe contrast have been obtained. Furthermore, having used the results of the experimental measurements with the help of the method of least squares we have calculated the value of the parameter corresponding to the cognitive noise of the person being studied. The range of cognitive noise parameter values for studied subjects turned to be [0.08; 0.55]. It should be noted, that experimental results have a good reproducibility, the same person being studied repeatedly another day produces very similar data with very close levels of cognitive noise. We found an excellent agreement between analytically deduced probability and the results obtained in the experiment. A good qualitative agreement between theoretical and experimental results indicates that even such a simple model allows simulating brain cognitive dynamics and estimating important cognitive characteristic of the brain, such as brain noise.

Keywords: bistability, brain, noise, perception, stochastic processes

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Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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The use of regularization for statistical methods has become popular. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework has become the standard tool for sparse regression. However, it is well known that the LASSO is sensitive to outliers or leverage points. We consider a new robust estimation which is composed of the weighted loss function of the pairwise difference of residuals and the adaptive penalty function regulating the tuning parameter for each variable. Rank regression is resistant to regression outliers, but not to leverage points. By adopting a weighted loss function, the proposed method is robust to leverage points of the predictor variable. Furthermore, the adaptive penalty function gives us good statistical properties in variable selection such as oracle property and consistency. We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the proposed estimator using basic functions in program R. We used an optimal tuning parameter based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Numerical simulation shows that the proposed estimator is effective for analyzing real data set and contaminated data.

Keywords: adaptive penalty function, robust penalized regression, variable selection, weighted rank regression

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Authors: Eyup Dogan

Abstract:

This empirical aims to analyze the impacts of real income and biomass energy consumption on the level of emissions in the EKC model for the panel of biomass-consuming countries over the period 1980-2011. Because we detect the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries for the analyzed data, we use panel estimation methods robust to cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The CADF and the CIPS panel unit root tests indicate that carbon emissions, real income and biomass energy consumption are stationary at the first-differences. The LM bootstrap panel cointegration test shows that the analyzed variables are cointegrated. Results from the panel group-mean DOLS and the panel group-mean FMOLS estimators show that increase in biomass energy consumption decreases CO2 emissions and the EKC hypothesis is validated. Therefore, countries are advised to boost their production and increase the use of biomass energy for lower level of emissions.

Keywords: biomass energy, CO2 emissions, EKC model, heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence

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Authors: M. V. Chidananda Murthy, M. Z. Kurian, H. S. Guruprasad

Abstract:

Image restoration in the process of communication is one of the emerging fields in the image processing. The motion analysis processing is the simplest case to detect motion in an image. Applications of motion analysis widely spread in many areas such as surveillance, remote sensing, film industry, navigation of autonomous vehicles, etc. The scene may contain multiple moving objects, by using motion analysis techniques the blur caused by the movement of the objects can be enhanced by filling-in occluded regions and reconstruction of transparent objects, and it also removes the motion blurring. This paper presents the design and comparison of various motion detection and enhancement filters. Median filter, Linear image deconvolution, Inverse filter, Pseudoinverse filter, Wiener filter, Lucy Richardson filter and Blind deconvolution filters are used to remove the blur. In this work, we have considered different types and different amount of blur for the analysis. Mean Square Error (MSE) and Peak Signal to Noise Ration (PSNR) are used to evaluate the performance of the filters. The designed system has been implemented in Matlab software and tested for synthetic and real-time images.

Keywords: image enhancement, motion analysis, motion detection, motion estimation

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Authors: A. M. U. P. Kumari, Vidanapathirana. J., Amarasekara J., Karunanayaka L.

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection with significant morbidity and mortality. As an occupational disease, it has become a global concern due to its disease burden in endemic countries and rural areas. The aim of this study was to assess disease burden in terms of DALYs of leptospirosis. A hospital-based descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted using 450 clinically diagnosed leptospirosis patients admitted to base and above hospitals in Monaragala district, Sri Lanka, using a pretested interviewer administered questionnaire. The patients were followed up till normal day today life after discharge. Estimation of DALYs was done using laboratory confirmed leptospirosis patients. Leptospirosis disease burden in the Monaragala district was 44.9 DALYs per 100,000 population which includes 33.18 YLLs and 10.9 YLDs. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Monaragala district during the study period was 59.8 per 100,000 population, and the case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.5% due to delay in health seeking behaviour; 75% of deaths were among males due to multi organ failure. The disease burden of leptospirosis in the Moneragala district was significantly high, and urgent efforts to control and prevent leptospirosis should be a priority.

Keywords: human leptospirosis, disease burden, disability adjusted life Years, Sri Lanka

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

Abstract:

Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: empirical models, rubberwood, moisture ratio, hot air drying

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Authors: J. Bertrandt, A. Kłos, R. Waszkowski, T. Nowicki, R. Pytlak, E. Stęzycka, A. Gazdzinska

Abstract:

The aim of the work was estimation of copper intake with the daily food rations used for alimentation of students of military high schools and soldiers doing compulsory military service in the Polish Army. An average planned copper content in daily food rations used for alimentation of students and soldiers amounted to 2.49±0.35 mg, and 2.44±0.25 mg respectively. The copper content in the daily food ration given for consumption to students amounted from 1.81±0.14 mg to 2.58±0.44 mg while daily food rations served to soldiers delivered from 2.06±0.45 mg to 2.13±0.33 mg. The copper content in the rations planned for students and soldiers’ alimentation was within the limits of the norms obligatory in Poland. Daily food rations given for consumption, except rations served for students, were within the limits of the recommended norms, but food rations really eaten by examined men didn’t cover the requirements for copper.

Keywords: copper, daily food ration, military service, food security, nutrition

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Authors: P. Zarfam, M. Mansouri Baghbaderani

Abstract:

In seismic design, the proper reaction to the earthquake and the correct and accurate prediction of its subsequent effects on the structure are critical. Choose a proper probability distribution, which gives a more realistic probability of the structure's damage rate, is essential in damage discussions. With the development of design based on performance, analytical method of modal push over as an inexpensive, efficacious, and quick one in the estimation of the structures' seismic response is broadly used in engineering contexts. In this research three concrete frames of 3, 6, and 13 stories are analyzed in non-linear modal push over by 30 different earthquake records by OpenSEES software, then the detriment indexes of roof's displacement and relative displacement ratio of the stories are calculated by two parameters: peak ground acceleration and spectra acceleration. These indexes are used to establish the value of damage relations with log-normal distribution and logistics distribution. Finally the value of these relations is compared and the effect of height on the mentioned damage relations is studied, too.

Keywords: modal pushover analysis, concrete structure, seismic damage, log-normal distribution, logistic distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Anoop T. R., Otman Basir, Robert F. Hess, Ben Thompson

Abstract:

Strabismus refers to a misalignment of the eyes. Early detection and treatment of strabismus in childhood can prevent the development of permanent vision loss due to abnormal development of visual brain areas. Currently, many children with strabismus remain undiagnosed until school entry because current automated screening methods have limited success in the preschool age range. A method for strabismus detection using eye alignment stability (EAS) is proposed. This method starts with face detection, followed by facial landmark detection, eye region segmentation, eye gaze extraction, and eye alignment stability estimation. Binarization and morphological operations are performed for segmenting the pupil region from the eye. After finding the EAS, its absolute value is used to differentiate the strabismic eye from the non-strabismic eye. If the value of the eye alignment stability is greater than a particular threshold, then the eyes are misaligned, and if its value is less than the threshold, the eyes are aligned. The method was tested on 175 strabismic and non-strabismic images obtained from Kaggle and Google Photos. The strabismic eye is taken as a positive class, and the non-strabismic eye is taken as a negative class. The test produced a true positive rate of 100% and a false positive rate of 7.69%.

Keywords: strabismus, face detection, facial landmarks, eye segmentation, eye gaze, binarization

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Authors: Yaner Yan, Ning Li, Yajun Qiao, Shuqing An

Abstract:

Although most studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services, there is still a knowledge gap on coastal ecosystem services and an urgent need to assess them. Lau (2013) clearly defined five types of costal ecosystem services: carbon sequestration, shoreline protection, fish nursery, biodiversity, and water quality. While high-resolution remote sensing can provide the more direct, spatially estimates of biophysical parameters, such as species distribution relating to biodiversity service, and Fluorescence information derived from remote sensing direct relate to photosynthesis, availing in estimation of carbon sequestration and the response to environmental changes in coastal wetland. Here, we review the capabilities of high-resolution and fluorescence remote sesing for describing biodiversity, vegetation condition, ecological processes and highlight how these prodicts may contribute to costal ecosystem service assessment. In so doing, we anticipate rapid progress to combine the high-resolution and fluorescence remote sesing to estimate the spatial pattern of costal ecosystem services.

Keywords: ecosystem services, high resolution, remote sensing, chlorophyll fluorescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 507