Search results for: flood risk governance

Authors: Tanapond S.

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Typically, most of the controlling firms are relate to family firms which are widespread and important for economic growth particularly in Asian Pacific region. The unique characteristics of the controlling families tend to play an important role in determining the corporate policies such as dividend policy. Given the complexity of the family business phenomenon, the empirical evidence has been unclear on how the families behind business groups influence dividend policy in Asian markets with the prevalent existence of cross-shareholdings and pyramidal structure. Dividend policy as one of an important determinant of firm value could also be implemented in order to examine the effect of the controlling families behind business groups on strategic decisions-making in terms of a governance perspective and agency problems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ownership structure and concentration which are influential internal corporate governance mechanisms in family firms on dividend decision-making. Using panel data and constructing a unique dataset of family ownership and control through hand-collecting information from the nonfinancial companies listed in Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2000 and 2015, the study finds that family firms with large stakes distribute higher dividends than family firms with small stakes. Family ownership can mitigate the agency problems and the expropriation of minority investors in family firms. To provide insight into the distinguish between ownership rights and control rights, this study examines specific firm characteristics including the degrees of concentration of controlling shareholders by classifying family ownership in different categories. The results show that controlling families with large deviation between voting rights and cash flow rights have more power and affect lower dividend payment. These situations become worse when second blockholders are families. To the best knowledge of the researcher, this study is the first to examine the association between family firms’ characteristics and dividend policy from the corporate governance perspectives in Thailand with weak investor protection environment and high ownership concentration. This research also underscores the importance of family control especially in a context in which family business groups and pyramidal structure are prevalent. As a result, academics and policy makers can develop markets and corporate policies to eliminate agency problem.

Keywords: agency theory, dividend policy, family control, Thailand

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Authors: Patricia Chinyere Oranefo

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This study examined the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The dearth of empirical evidence and literature on “governance disclosure” as one of the explanatory variables of sustainability accounting reporting were the major motivation for this study. The main objective was to ascertain the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. An ex–post facto research design approach was adopted for the study. The population of this study comprises of five (5) Brewery firms quoted on the floor of the Nigeria exchange group (NSX) and the sample size of four (4) listed firms was drawn using purposive sampling method. Secondary data were carefully sourced from the financial statement/annual reports and sustainability reports from 2012 to 2021 of the Brewery firms quoted on the Nigeria exchange group (NSX). Panel regression analysis by aid of E-views 10.0 software was used to test for statistical significance of the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The results showed that economic sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect return on asset of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The findings further revealed that environmental sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect return on equity of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. More so, results showed that Social Sustainability disclosure indexes significantly affect Net Profit Margin of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. Finally, the result established also that governance sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect Earnings per share of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. Consequent upon the findings, this study recommended among others; that managers of Brewers in Nigeria should improve and sustain full disclosure practices on economic, environmental, social and governance disclosures following the guidelines of the Global Reporting Index (GRI) as they are capable of exerting significant effect on financial performance of firms in Nigeria.

Keywords: sustainability, accounting, disclosure, financial performance

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Authors: Wang Yongdong, Yeneayehu Fenetahun, You Yuan, Ogbue Chukwuka, Yahaya Ibrahim, Xu Xinwen

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This paper explores an innovative Ethiopian approach to combatting desertification, focusing on the semi-arid savanna grasslands in Southern Ethiopia. The study investigates the multifaceted strategies employed by Ethiopian communities, governmental bodies, and non-governmental organizations to address desertification challenges in the region. Through an analysis of legislative frameworks, community engagement, afforestation programs, and sustainable land management techniques, this research highlights the efficacy of Ethiopia's strategy in reducing the effects of desertification. The results emphasize how crucial it is to build effective measures for halting desertification in fragile ecosystems by utilizing local knowledge, community involvement, and adaptive governance. In addition, this study also addresses how the Ethiopian approach may be applied to other areas with comparable environmental problems. In summary, this research adds significant perspectives to the worldwide conversation about desertification and provides useful guidance for sustainable land use.

Keywords: adaptive governance, community engagement, desertification, policy frameworks

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Authors: M. Mokhber, J. Hedayati

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From the managerial perspective, it is important to devise an operational plan based on top priorities due to limited resources, diversity of measures and high costs needed to improve safety in infrastructure. Dealing with the high-risk corridors across Iran, this study prioritized the corridors according to statistical data on accidents involving fatalities, injury or damage over three consecutive years. In collaboration with the Iranian Police Department, data were collected and modified. Then, the prioritization criteria were specified based on the expertise opinions and international standards. In this study, the prioritization criteria included accident severity and accident density. Finally, the criteria were standardized and weighted (equal weights) to score each high-risk corridor. The prioritization phase involved the scoring and weighting procedure. The high-risk corridors were divided into twelve groups out of 50. The results of data analysis for a three-year span suggested that the first three groups (150 corridors) along with a quarter of Iranian road network length account for nearly 60% of traffic accidents. In the next step, according to variables including weather conditions particular roads for the purpose of winter safety measures were extracted from the abovementioned categories. According to the results ranking, ‎‏9‏‎ roads with the overall ‎length of about ‎‎‏1000‏‎ Km of high-risk corridors are considered as preferences of ‎safety measures‎.

Keywords: high-risk corridors, HRCs, road safety rating, road scoring, winter safety measures

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Authors: Sana Masmoudi, Yosra Makni

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Regulators highlight the importance of the Audit Committee (AC) as a key internal corporate governance mechanism. One of the most important roles of this committee is to oversee the financial reporting process. The purpose of this paper is to examine the link between the characteristics of an audit committee and the financial reporting quality by investigating whether the formation of audit committees and their characteristics are associated with improved financial reporting quality. This study provides empirical evidence of the association between audit committee independence, financial expertise, gender diversity, and meetings and Real Earnings Management (REM) as a proxy of financial reporting quality. Using data from, with a sample of 80 companies listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange during 2010-2017, the study finds that independence and AC Gender diversity are strongly related to financial reporting quality. In fact, these two characteristics constrain REM. The results also suggest that AC-financial expertise reduces to some extent, the likelihood of engaging in REM. These conclusions provide support then to the audit committee requirement under the Dutch Corporate Governance Code rules regarding gender diversity and AC meetings.

Keywords: audit committee, financial expertise, independence, real earnings management

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Authors: Fatemeh Nokhodchi Bonab

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Bioinformatics, in its broad sense, involves application of computer processes to solve biological problems. A wide range of computational tools are needed to effectively and efficiently process large amounts of data being generated as a result of recent technological innovations in biology and medicine. A number of computational tools have been developed or adapted to deal with the experimental riches of complex and multivariate data and transition from data collection to information or knowledge. These bioinformatics tools are being evaluated and applied in various medical areas including early detection, risk assessment, classification, and prognosis of cancer. The goal of these efforts is to develop and identify bioinformatics methods with optimal sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capabilities. The recent flood of data from genome sequences and functional genomics has given rise to new field, bioinformatics, which combines elements of biology and computer science. Bioinformatics is conceptualizing biology in terms of macromolecules (in the sense of physical-chemistry) and then applying "informatics" techniques (derived from disciplines such as applied maths, computer science, and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with these molecules, on a large-scale. Here we propose a definition for this new field and review some of the research that is being pursued, particularly in relation to transcriptional regulatory systems.

Keywords: methods, applications, transcriptional regulatory systems, techniques

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Authors: Muhammad Sheraz, Vasile Preda, Silvia Dedu

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Concepts of econophysics are usually used to solve problems related to uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. In the theory of option pricing the risk neutral probabilities play very important role. The application of entropy in finance can be regarded as the extension of both information entropy and the probability entropy. It can be an important tool in various financial methods such as measure of risk, portfolio selection, option pricing and asset pricing. Gulko applied Entropy Pricing Theory (EPT) for pricing stock options and introduced an alternative framework of Black-Scholes model for pricing European stock option. In this article, we present solutions to maximum entropy problems based on Tsallis, Weighted-Tsallis, Kaniadakis, Weighted-Kaniadakies entropies, to obtain risk-neutral densities. We have also obtained the value of European call and put in this framework.

Keywords: option pricing, Black-Scholes model, Tsallis entropy, Kaniadakis entropy, weighted entropy, risk-neutral density

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Authors: Dana Cassandra Winkler, Delia Leiding, Rene Bergs, Franziska Kaiser, Ramona Kirchhart, Ute Habel

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Background: Violence is a multidimensional phenomenon, affecting people of every age, socio-economic status and gender. Nevertheless, most studies primarily focus on men perpetrating women. Aim of the present study is to identify the likelihood of mental and somatic disorders and risk-taking behavior in male violence affected. In addition, the relationship between age of violence experience and the risk for health-related problems was analyzed. Method: On the basis of current evidence, a questionnaire was developed focusing on demographic background, health status, risk-taking behavior, and active and passive violence exposure. In total, 5221 males (Mean: 56,1 years, SD: 17,6) were consulted. To account for the time of violence experience in an efficient way, age clusters ‘0-12 years’, ‘13-20 years’, ‘21-35 years’, ‘36-65 years’ and ‘over 65 years’ were defined. A binary logistic regression was calculated to reveal differences in violence-affected and non-violence affected males regarding health and risk-taking factors. Males who experienced violence on a daily/ almost daily basis vs. males who reported violence occurrence once/ several times a month/ year were compared with respect to health factors and risk-taking behavior. Data of males, who indicated active and passive violence exposure, were analyzed by a chi²-analysis, to investigate a possible relation between the age of victimization and violence perpetration. Findings: Results imply that general violence experience, independent of active and passive violence exposure increases the likelihood in favor of somatic-, psychosomatic- and mental disorders as well as risk-taking behavior in males. Experiencing violence on a daily or almost daily basis in childhood and adolescence may serve as a predictor for increased health problems and risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, the violence experience and perpetration occur significantly within the same age cluster. This underlines the importance of a near-term intervention to minimize the risk, that victims become perpetrators later. Conclusion: The present study reveals predictors concerning health risk factors as well as risk-taking behavior in males with violence exposure. The results of this study may underscore the benefit of intervention and regular health care approaches in violence-affected males and underline the importance of acknowledging the overlap of violence experience and perpetration for further research.

Keywords: health disease, male, mental health, prevalence, risk-taking behavior, violence

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: scaffolding, health and safety at work, temperature, wind velocity

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

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Authors: Nayab Kanwal, Noor Us Saher

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The management and utilization of food resources is becoming a big issue due to rapid urbanization, wastage and non-sustainable use of food, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the use of seafood as alternative sources is strongly promoted worldwide. Marine pollution strongly affects marine organisms, which ultimately decreases their export quality. The monitoring of contamination in marine organisms is a good indicator of the environmental quality as well as seafood quality. Monitoring the accumulation of chemical elements within various tissues of organisms has become a useful tool to survey current or chronic levels of heavy metal exposure within an environment. In this perspective, this study was carried out to compare the previous and current levels (Year 2012 and 2014) of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn) in crabs marketed in Karachi and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. The accumulation of metals in marine organisms, both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Pb, Cd and Cr), natural and anthropogenic, is an actual food safety issue. Significant (p>0.05) variations in metal concentrations were found in all crab species between the two years, with most of the metals showing high accumulation in 2012. For toxicological risk assessment, EWI (Estimated weekly intake), Target Hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk (CR) were also assessed and high EWI, Non- cancer risk (THQ < 1) showed that there is no serious threat associated with the consumption of shellfish species on Karachi coast. The Cancer risk showed the highest risk from Cd and Pb pollution if consumed in excess. We summarize key environmental health research on health effects associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. It could be concluded that considering the Pakistan coast, these edible species may be sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of environmental contaminants; more attention should be paid to the Pb and Cd metal bioaccumulation and to toxicological risks to seafood and consumers.

Keywords: cancer risk, edible crabs, heavy metals pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: behavior-based advising, financial relationship building, risk capacity based on behavior, risk tolerance, systematic way to assist in financial relationship building

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Authors: M. A. Stoian, D. M. Cocarta, A. Badea

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The main sources of soil pollution due to petroleum contaminants are industrial processes involve crude oil. Soil polluted with crude oil is toxic for plants, animals, and humans. Human exposure to the contaminated soil occurs through different exposure pathways: Soil ingestion, diet, inhalation, and dermal contact. The present study research is focused on soil contamination with heavy metals as a consequence of soil pollution with petroleum products. Human exposure pathways considered are: Accidentally ingestion of contaminated soil and dermal contact. The purpose of the paper is to identify the human health risk (carcinogenic risk) from soil contaminated with heavy metals. The human exposure and risk were evaluated for five contaminants of concern of the eleven which were identified in soil. Two soil samples were collected from a bioremediation platform from Muntenia Region of Romania. The soil deposited on the bioremediation platform was contaminated through extraction and oil processing. For the research work, two average soil samples from two different plots were analyzed: The first one was slightly contaminated with petroleum products (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in soil was 1420 mg/kg_d.w.), while the second one was highly contaminated (TPH in soil was 24306 mg/kg_d.w.). In order to evaluate risks posed by heavy metals due soil pollution with petroleum products, five metals known as carcinogenic were investigated: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium^VI (Cr^VI), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb). Results of the chemical analysis performed on samples collected from the contaminated soil evidence soil contamination with heavy metals as following: As in Site 1 = 6.96 mg/kg_d.w; As in Site 2 = 11.62 mg/kg_d.w, Cd in Site 1 = 0.9 mg/kg_d.w; Cd in Site 2 = 1 mg/kg_d.w; Cr^VI was 0.1 mg/kg_d.w for both sites; Ni in Site 1 = 37.00 mg/kg_d.w; Ni in Site 2 = 42.46 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 1 = 34.67 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 2 = 120.44 mg/kg_d.w. The concentrations for these metals exceed the normal values established in the Romanian regulation, but are smaller than the alert level for a less sensitive use of soil (industrial). Although, the concentrations do not exceed the thresholds, the next step was to assess the human health risk posed by soil contamination with these heavy metals. Results for risk were compared with the acceptable one (10^-6, according to World Human Organization). As, expected, the highest risk was identified for the soil with a higher degree of contamination: Individual Risk (IR) was 1.11×10^-5 compared with 8.61×10^-6. 

Keywords: carcinogenic risk, heavy metals, human health risk assessment, soil pollution

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Authors: Rosa Nadine Danenberg

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In recent years, bottom-up urban development has started growing as an alternative to conventional top-down planning. In large proportions, citizens and communities initiate small-scale interventions; suddenly seeming to form a trend. As a result, more and more cities are witnessing not only the growth of but also an interest in these initiatives, as they bear the potential to reshape urban spaces. Such alternative city-making efforts cause new dynamics in urban governance, with inevitable consequences for the controlled city planning and its administration. The emergence of enabling relationships between top-down and bottom-up actors signals an increasingly common urban practice. Various case studies show that an enabling relationship is possible, yet, how it can be optimally realized stays rather underexamined. Therefore, the seemingly growing worldwide phenomenon of ‘municipal bottom-up urban development’ necessitates an adequate governance structure. As such, the aim of this research is to contribute knowledge to how municipalities can enable citizen-led urban initiatives from a governance innovation perspective. Empirical case-study research in Stockholm and Istanbul, derived from interviews with founders of four citizen-led urban initiatives and one municipal representative in each city, provided valuable insights to possibilities and constraints for enabling practices. On the one hand, diverging outcomes emphasize the extreme oppositional features of both cases (Stockholm and Istanbul). Firstly, both cities’ characteristics are drastically different. Secondly, the ideologies and motifs for the initiatives to emerge vary widely. Thirdly, the major constraints for citizen-led urban initiatives to relate to the municipality are considerably different. Two types of municipality’s organizational structures produce different underlying mechanisms which demonstrate the constraints. The first municipal organizational structure is steered by bureaucracy (Stockholm). It produces an administrative division that brings up constraints such as the lack of responsibility, transparency and continuity by municipal representatives. The second structure is dominated by municipal politics and governmental hierarchy (Istanbul). It produces informality, lack of transparency and a fragmented civil society. In order to cope with the constraints produced by both types of organizational structures, the initiatives have adjusted their organization to the municipality’s underlying structures. On the other hand, this paper has in fact also come to a rather unifying conclusion. Interestingly, the suggested possibilities for an enabling relationship underline converging new urban governance arrangements. This could imply that for the two varying types of municipality’s organizational structures there is an accurate governance structure. Namely, the combination of a neighborhood council with a municipal guide, with allowance for the initiatives to adopt a politicizing attitude is found as coinciding. Especially its combination appears key to redeem varying constraints. A municipal guide steers the initiatives through bureaucratic struggles, is supported by coproduction methods, while it balances out municipal politics. Next, a neighborhood council, that is politically neutral and run by local citizens, can function as an umbrella for citizen-led urban initiatives. What is crucial is that it should cater for a more entangled relationship between municipalities and initiatives with enhanced involvement of the initiatives in decision-making processes and limited involvement of prevailing constraints pointed out in this research.

Keywords: bottom-up urban development, governance innovation, Istanbul, Stockholm

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Authors: Sharon Garyn-Tal, Shoshana Shahrabani

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Military service in general, and in combat units in particular, can be physically and psychologically stressful. Therefore, type of service may have significant implications for soldiers during and after their military service including emotions, judgments and risk perceptions. Previous studies have focused on risk propensity and risky behavior among soldiers, however there is still lack of knowledge on the impact of type of army service on risk perceptions. The current study examines the effect of type of army service (combat versus non-combat service) and negative incidental emotions on risk perceptions. In 2014 a survey was conducted among 153 combat and non-combat Israeli soldiers. The survey was distributed in train stations and central bus stations in various places in Israel among soldiers waiting for the train/bus. Participants answered questions related to the levels of incidental negative emotions they felt, to their risk perceptions (chances to be hurt by terror attack, by violent crime and by car accident), and personal details including type of army service. The data in this research is unique because military service in Israel is compulsory, so that the Israeli population serving in the army is wide and diversified. The results indicate that currently serving combat participants were more pessimistic in their risk perceptions (for all type of risks) compared to the currently serving non-combat participants. Since combat participants probably experienced severe and distressing situations during their service, they became more pessimistic regarding their probabilities of being hurt in different situations in life. This result supports the availability heuristic theory and the findings of previous studies indicating that those who directly experience distressing events tend to overestimate danger. The findings also indicate that soldiers who feel higher levels of incidental fear and anger have pessimistic risk perceptions. In addition, respondents who experienced combat army service also have pessimistic risk perceptions if they feel higher levels of fear. In addition, the findings suggest that higher levels of the incidental emotions of fear and anger are related to more pessimistic risk perceptions. These results can be explained by the compulsory army service in Israel that constitutes a focused threat to soldiers' safety during their period of service. Thus, in this stressful environment, negative incidental emotions even during routine times correlate with higher risk perceptions. In conclusion, the current study results suggest that combat army service shapes risk perceptions and the way young people control their negative incidental emotions in everyday life. Recognizing the factors affecting risk perceptions among soldiers is important for better understanding the impact of army service on young people.

Keywords: army service, combat soldiers, incidental emotions, risk perceptions

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Authors: Faouzi Ameur, Atef Belhaj Ali

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Located in the South-west of Saudi Arabia, Jeddah is more than a harbor. It is a big city of the Red Sea and the second town of Saudi Arabia, after Riyadh the capital. Jeddah profits from several economic assets due especially to its transit position towards the high sacred places of Islam like Mecca and Medina. During summer, this metropolis is transformed into a political capital and a tourist resort for foreigners and Saudis alike. The city of Jeddah was affected by serious sudden floods; two great ones took place in 2009, and in 2011. The human and material tools were considerable, since these events caused the death to hundreds of people, damaged thousands of buildings built on basins slopes, which, however had the authorizations necessary. To cope with these natural disasters, several urban hydraulic measures were undertaken like building dams and canals to collect surface waters. These urban measures aimed at the protection of inhabitants and belongings against the risks of floods as well as the interception and the drainage of streams. Although these protection measures are important, expensive, and effective, they are no longer enough or effective to cope with the evolution of the natural disasters that the city of Jeddah is constantly exposed to. These protective hydraulic measures did not make it possible to reach risk zero situations. They transferred the damages towards other zones. This paper purports to study the protection network systems in Jeddah and to understand their various impacts during floods on the city and on its inhabitants.

Keywords: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, urbanization, hydraulic protection

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Authors: Prathibha Ganesan

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This paper discusses discontents of inhabitants in the landfills and its culmination into resistance against centralised waste disposal during the last three decades in Kerala. The study is based on a sample survey of 175 households located in the landfill sites and city limits of two Municipal Corporations viz. Thrissur and Cochin. The study found that waste is dumped in the periphery of the urban area where economically and socially vulnerable people are densely populated. Moreover, landfill sites are unscientifically managed to cause severe socio-economic and health issues to the local people, finally leading to their mobilisation and persistent struggle. The struggles often culminate in the closure of landfills or forced relocation or abandonment of the region by the community. The study concluded that persistent people’s struggles compel the local state to either find alternatives to centralised solid waste management system or use political power to subsume the local resistance. The persistence of the struggles determined the type waste governance adopted by the local governments.

Keywords: solid waste management, municipal corporation, resistance movements, urban, Kerala

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Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu

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Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.

Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Rawan Masarwa, Merav Ben Natan, Yaron Berkovich

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Background: Hip fracture repair surgery carries a certain mortality risk, yet evidence suggests that orthopedic surgeons often refrain from discussing this issue with patients prior to surgery. Aim: This study aims to examine whether orthopedic surgeons address the issue of one-year post-surgery mortality before hip fracture repair surgery and to explore the factors influencing this decision. Method: The study uses a cross-sectional design, administering validated digital questionnaires to 150 orthopedic surgeons. Results: A minority of orthopedic surgeons reported consistently informing patients about the risk of mortality in the year following hip fracture surgery. The primary reasons for not discussing this risk were a desire to avoid frightening patients, time constraints, and concerns about undermining patient hope. Surgeons reported a medium-high level of perceived self-efficacy, with higher self-efficacy linked to a reduced likelihood of discussing one-year mortality risk. In contrast, older age and holding a specialist status in orthopedic surgery were associated with a higher likelihood of discussing this risk with patients. Conclusions: The findings suggest a need for interventions to address communication barriers and ensure consistent provision of essential information to patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of considering individual factors such as self-efficacy, age, and expertise in developing strategies to enhance patient-provider communication in orthopedic care settings.

Keywords: orthopedic surgeons, hip fracture surgery, mortality risk communication, patient information

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

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Authors: Emrah Ayhan, Puspa Saananta Irfani, Ömer Doğukan Şahin

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Public services, which are important for the order and continuity of social life, have begun to transform into electronic services (E-service) with the development of information and communication technologies in recent years. In particular, as a result of the widespread use of the internet and the increase in citizen demands, it has become necessary to provide public services electronically. In addition to facilitating traditional public services, new types of e-services strengthen the interaction, cooperation, accessibility, transparency, citizen participation (e-governance) and accountability between citizens and the state. In this context, the factors in the literature that are considered to influence the citizens’ satisfaction towards e-services will be examined through the example of student satisfaction with the e-services (Anasis, Mergen, E-mail, library, cafeteria and other transactions) offered by Anadolu University (Eskişehir, Türkiye) through university website and mobile application. The data for the analysis will be obtained from the survey research that will be used to measure user satisfaction with university e-services of 1,000 students studying at 9 different faculties and graduate schools of Anadolu University. These data will be analyzed with a unique methodology that uses the E-GovQual model and Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) methods together. The e-GovQual model serves as a framework for evaluating the quality of e-services, allowing a detailed understanding of students' perceptions. On the other hand, the IPA method will be used to determine the performance level of Anadolu University in the provision of e-services and to understand the areas that require improvement and student expectations. Strategic goals and suggestions will be made to decision-makers, students, and researchers in line with the findings obtained in the research. Thus, it is planned to contribute to e-governance and user satisfaction in educational institutions and to reveal practical implications for optimizing online platforms to better serve student needs.

Keywords: e-service, Anadolu university, student satisfaction, e-governance, e-govqual, importance performance analysis

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: Deretha Bester

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This article explores the recent military coups in Mali (August 2020) and Burkina Faso (January 2022), utilizing qualitative case study analyses to examine the pre-coup domestic contextual conditions that precipitated the events. By framing the research through the conceptual lens of state fragility, the research identifies key political, economic, and societal factors that converge to create an environment conducive for coups to occur. From the analyses, the study discusses several patterns that emerged, all revealing the significance of the core functions of governance. Through an in-depth exploration that brings the state back into the coup debate, the study provides rich insights into the complex dynamics of military intervention in political affairs, highlighting the urgency of understanding the underlying domestic factors that can lead to radical political changes. By illuminating these intricate dynamics, the article seeks to provide detailed insights needed to fully understand the challenges moulding the region's political terrain.

Keywords: governance failures, military coups, political dynamics, Sahel region, state fragility

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Authors: J. H. Boonzaaier, A. C. Brent

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South Africa, a water scarce country, experiences the phenomenon that its life supporting natural water resources is seriously threatened by the users that are totally dependent on it. South Africa is globally applauded to have of the best and most progressive water laws and policies. There are however growing concerns regarding natural water resource quality deterioration and a critical void in the management of natural resources and compliance to policies due to increasing institutional uncertainties and failures. These are in accordance with concerns of many South African researchers and practitioners that call for a change in paradigm from talk to practice and a more constructive, practical approach to governance challenges in the management of water resources. A qualitative theory-building case study through longitudinal action research was conducted from 2014 to 2017. The research assessed whether a strategic positioned institutional agent can be parlayed to facilitate and execute WRM on catchment level by engaging multiple stakeholders in a polycentric setting. Through a critical realist approach a distinction was made between ex ante self-deterministic human behaviour in the realist realm, and ex post governance-management in the constructivist realm. A congruence analysis, including Toulmin’s method of argumentation analysis, was utilised. The study evaluated the unique case of a self-steering local water management institution, the Impala Water Users Association (WUA) in the Pongola River catchment in the northern part of the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa. Exploiting prevailing water resource threats, it expanded its ancillary functions from 20,000 to 300,000 ha. Embarking on WRM activities, it addressed natural water system quality assessments, social awareness, knowledge support, and threats, such as: soil erosion, waste and effluent into water systems, coal mining, and water security dimensions; through structured engagement with 21 different catchment stakeholders. By implementing a proposed polycentric governance-management model on a catchment scale, the WUA achieved to fill the void. It developed a foundation and capacity to protect the resilience of the natural environment that is critical for freshwater resources to ensure long-term water security of the Pongola River basin. Further work is recommended on appropriate statutory delegations, mechanisms of sustainable funding, sufficient penetration of knowledge to local levels to catalyse behaviour change, incentivised support from professionals, back-to-back expansion of WUAs to alleviate scale and cost burdens, and the creation of catchment data monitoring and compilation centres.

Keywords: institutional agent, water governance, polycentric water resource management, water resource management

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