Search results for: Penalized Quasi Likelihood
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1243

Search results for: Penalized Quasi Likelihood

1243 Comparison of Methods of Estimation for Use in Goodness of Fit Tests for Binary Multilevel Models

Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

Abstract:

It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood, type-I error

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
1242 Credit Risk Prediction Based on Bayesian Estimation of Logistic Regression Model with Random Effects

Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

Abstract:

The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
1241 A Comparison of Smoothing Spline Method and Penalized Spline Regression Method Based on Nonparametric Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

Procedia PDF Downloads 392
1240 Parameter Estimation of Gumbel Distribution with Maximum-Likelihood Based on Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno Quasi-Newton

Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

Abstract:

Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

Procedia PDF Downloads 295
1239 Parameter Estimation for the Mixture of Generalized Gamma Model

Authors: Wikanda Phaphan

Abstract:

Mixture generalized gamma distribution is a combination of two distributions: generalized gamma distribution and length biased generalized gamma distribution. These two distributions were presented by Suksaengrakcharoen and Bodhisuwan in 2014. The findings showed that probability density function (pdf) had fairly complexities, so it made problems in estimating parameters. The problem occurred in parameter estimation was that we were unable to calculate estimators in the form of critical expression. Thus, we will use numerical estimation to find the estimators. In this study, we presented a new method of the parameter estimation by using the expectation – maximization algorithm (EM), the conjugate gradient method, and the quasi-Newton method. The data was generated by acceptance-rejection method which is used for estimating α, β, λ and p. λ is the scale parameter, p is the weight parameter, α and β are the shape parameters. We will use Monte Carlo technique to find the estimator's performance. Determining the size of sample equals 10, 30, 100; the simulations were repeated 20 times in each case. We evaluated the effectiveness of the estimators which was introduced by considering values of the mean squared errors and the bias. The findings revealed that the EM-algorithm had proximity to the actual values determined. Also, the maximum likelihood estimators via the conjugate gradient and the quasi-Newton method are less precision than the maximum likelihood estimators via the EM-algorithm.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, quasi-Newton method, EM-algorithm, generalized gamma distribution, length biased generalized gamma distribution, maximum likelihood method

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
1238 Generating Links That Are Both Quasi-Alternating and Almost Alternating

Authors: Hamid Abchir, Mohammed Sabak2

Abstract:

We construct an infinite family of links which are both almost alternating and quasi-alternating from a given either almost alternating diagram representing a quasi-alternating link, or connected and reduced alternating tangle diagram. To do that we use what we call a dealternator extension which consists in replacing the dealternator by a rational tangle extending it. We note that all non-alternating and quasi-alternating Montesinos links can be obtained in that way. We check that all the obtained quasi-alternating links satisfy Conjecture 3.1 of Qazaqzeh et al. (JKTR 22 (6), 2013), that is the crossing number of a quasi-alternating link is less than or equal to its determinant. We also prove that the converse of Theorem 3.3 of Qazaqzeh et al. (JKTR 24 (1), 2015) is false.

Keywords: quasi-alternating links, almost alternating links, tangles, determinants

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
1237 Module Valuations and Quasi-Valuations

Authors: Shai Sarussi

Abstract:

Suppose F is a field with valuation v and valuation domain Oᵥ, and R is an Oᵥ-algebra. It is known that there exists a filter quasi-valuation on R; the existence of a quasi-valuation yields several important connections between Oᵥ and R, in particular with respect to their prime spectra. In this paper, the notion of a module valuation is introduced. It is shown that any torsion-free module over Oᵥ has an induced module valuation. Moreover, several results connecting the filter quasi-valuation and module valuations are presented.

Keywords: valuations, quasi-valuations, prime spectrum, algebras over valuation domains

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
1236 A Survey on Quasi-Likelihood Estimation Approaches for Longitudinal Set-ups

Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasilikelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQLIII) that are based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: longitudinal, com-Poisson, ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
1235 Statistical Inferences for GQARCH-It\^{o} - Jumps Model Based on The Realized Range Volatility

Authors: Fu Jinyu, Lin Jinguan

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel approach that unifies two types of models: one is the continuous-time jump-diffusion used to model high-frequency data, and the other is discrete-time GQARCH employed to model low-frequency financial data by embedding the discrete GQARCH structure with jumps in the instantaneous volatility process. This model is named “GQARCH-It\^{o} -Jumps mode.” We adopt the realized range-based threshold estimation for high-frequency financial data rather than the realized return-based volatility estimators, which entail the loss of intra-day information of the price movement. Meanwhile, a quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GQARCH structure with jumps is developed for the parametric estimate. The asymptotic theories are mainly established for the proposed estimators in the case of finite activity jumps. Moreover, simulation studies are implemented to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that how our proposed approaches can be practically used on some financial data.

Keywords: It\^{o} process, GQARCH, leverage effects, threshold, realized range-based volatility estimator, quasi-maximum likelihood estimate

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
1234 Fixed Point of Lipschitz Quasi Nonexpansive Mappings

Authors: Maryam Moosavi, Hadi Khatibzadeh

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to study the proximal point algorithm for quasi-nonexpansive mappings in Hadamard spaces. △-convergence and strong convergence of cyclic resolvents for a finite family of quasi-nonexpansive mappings one to a fixed point of the mappings are established

Keywords: Fixed point, Hadamard space, Proximal point algorithm, Quasi-nonexpansive sequence of mappings, Resolvent

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
1233 Orthogonal Regression for Nonparametric Estimation of Errors-In-Variables Models

Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

Abstract:

Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
1232 A Dislocation-Based Explanation to Quasi-Elastic Release in Shock Loaded Aluminum

Authors: Song L. Yao, Ji D. Yu, Xiao Y. Pei

Abstract:

An explanation is introduced to study the quasi-elastic release phenomenon in shock compressed aluminum. A dislocation-based model, taking into account of dislocation substructures and evolutions, is applied to simulate the elastic-plastic response of both single crystal and polycrystalline aluminum. Simulated results indicate that dislocation immobilization during dynamic deformation results in a smooth increase of yield stress, which leads to the quasi-elastic release. While the generation of dislocations caused by plastic release wave results in the appearance of transition point between the quasi-elastic release and the plastic release in the profile. The quantities of calculated shear strength and dislocation density are in accordance with experimental result, which demonstrates the accuracy of our simulations.

Keywords: dislocation density, quasi-elastic release, wave profile, shock wave

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
1231 On Quasi Conformally Flat LP-Sasakian Manifolds with a Coefficient α

Authors: Jay Prakash Singh

Abstract:

The aim of the present paper is to study properties of Quasi conformally flat LP-Sasakian manifolds with a coefficient α. In this paper, we prove that a Quasi conformally flat LP-Sasakian manifold M (n > 3) with a constant coefficient α is an η−Einstein and in a quasi conformally flat LP-Sasakian manifold M (n > 3) with a constant coefficient α if the scalar curvature tensor is constant then M is of constant curvature.

Keywords: LP-Sasakian manifolds, quasi-conformal curvature tensor, concircular vector field, torse forming vector field, Einstein manifold

Procedia PDF Downloads 760
1230 Response Solutions of 2-Dimensional Elliptic Degenerate Quasi-Periodic Systems With Small Parameters

Authors: Song Ni, Junxiang Xu

Abstract:

This paper concerns quasi-periodic perturbations with parameters of 2-dimensional degenerate systems. If the equilibrium point of the unperturbed system is elliptic-type degenerate. Assume that the perturbation is real analytic quasi-periodic with diophantine frequency. Without imposing any assumption on the perturbation, we can use a path of equilibrium points to tackle with the Melnikov non-resonance condition, then by the Leray-Schauder Continuation Theorem and the Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser technique, it is proved that the equation has a small response solution for many sufficiently small parameters.

Keywords: quasi-periodic systems, KAM-iteration, degenerate equilibrium point, response solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
1229 Power MOSFET Models Including Quasi-Saturation Effect

Authors: Abdelghafour Galadi

Abstract:

In this paper, accurate power MOSFET models including quasi-saturation effect are presented. These models have no internal node voltages determined by the circuit simulator and use one JFET or one depletion mode MOSFET transistors controlled by an “effective” gate voltage taking into account the quasi-saturation effect. The proposed models achieve accurate simulation results with an average error percentage less than 9%, which is an improvement of 21 percentage points compared to the commonly used standard power MOSFET model. In addition, the models can be integrated in any available commercial circuit simulators by using their analytical equations. A description of the models will be provided along with the parameter extraction procedure.

Keywords: power MOSFET, drift layer, quasi-saturation effect, SPICE model

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
1228 Survival and Hazard Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate Based on Right Censored Data of Weibull Distribution

Authors: Al Omari Mohammed Ahmed

Abstract:

This paper focuses on Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate. Covariates are incorporated into the Weibull model. Under this regression model with regards to maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the covariate, shape parameter, survival function and hazard rate of the Weibull regression distribution with right censored data are estimated. The mean square error (MSE) and absolute bias are used to compare the performance of Weibull regression distribution. For the simulation comparison, the study used various sample sizes and several specific values of the Weibull shape parameter.

Keywords: weibull regression distribution, maximum likelihood estimator, survival function, hazard rate, right censoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 410
1227 Efficient Estimation for the Cox Proportional Hazards Cure Model

Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

Abstract:

While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
1226 The Generalized Pareto Distribution as a Model for Sequential Order Statistics

Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

Abstract:

‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 469
1225 Evaluation of Quasi-Newton Strategy for Algorithmic Acceleration

Authors: T. Martini, J. M. Martínez

Abstract:

An algorithmic acceleration strategy based on quasi-Newton (or secant) methods is displayed for address the practical problem of accelerating the convergence of the Newton-Lagrange method in the case of convergence to critical multipliers. Since the Newton-Lagrange iteration converges locally at a linear rate, it is natural to conjecture that quasi-Newton methods based on the so called secant equation and some minimal variation principle, could converge superlinearly, thus restoring the convergence properties of Newton's method. This strategy can also be applied to accelerate the convergence of algorithms applied to fixed-points problems. Computational experience is reported illustrating the efficiency of this strategy to solve fixed-point problems with linear convergence rate.

Keywords: algorithmic acceleration, fixed-point problems, nonlinear programming, quasi-newton method

Procedia PDF Downloads 460
1224 Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations For Quantile Regression

Authors: Kajingulu Malandala, Ranganai Edmore

Abstract:

The asymmetric Laplace distribution (ADL) is commonly used as the likelihood function of the Bayesian quantile regression, and it offers different families of likelihood method for quantile regression. Notwithstanding their popularity and practicality, ADL is not smooth and thus making it difficult to maximize its likelihood. Furthermore, Bayesian inference is time consuming and the selection of likelihood may mislead the inference, as the Bayes theorem does not automatically establish the posterior inference. Furthermore, ADL does not account for greater skewness and Kurtosis. This paper develops a new aspect of quantile regression approach for count data based on inverse of the cumulative density function of the Poisson, binomial and Delaporte distributions using the integrated nested Laplace Approximations. Our result validates the benefit of using the integrated nested Laplace Approximations and support the approach for count data.

Keywords: quantile regression, Delaporte distribution, count data, integrated nested Laplace approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
1223 Cascaded Multi-Level Single-Phase Switched Boost Inverter

Authors: Van-Thuan Tran, Minh-Khai Nguyen, Geum-Bae Cho

Abstract:

Recently, multilevel inverters have become more attractive for researchers due to low total harmonic distortion (THD) in the output voltage and low electromagnetic interference (EMI). This paper proposes a single-phase cascaded H-bridge quasi switched boost inverter (CHB-qSBI) for renewable energy sources applications. The proposed inverter has the advantage over the cascaded H-bridge quasi-Z-source inverter (CHB-qZSI) in reducing two capacitors and two inductors. As a result, cost, weight, and size are reduced. Furthermore, the dc-link voltage of each module is controlled by individual shoot-through duty cycle to get the same values. Therefore, the proposed inverter solves the imbalance problem of dc-link voltage in traditional CHB inverter. This paper shows the operating principles and analysis of the single-phase cascaded H-bridge quasi switched boost inverter. Also, a control strategy for the proposed inverter is shown. Experimental and simulation results are shown to verify the operating principle of the proposed inverter.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, cascaded h-bridge inverter, quasi switched boost inverter, quasi z-source inverter, multilevel inverter

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
1222 An Ancient Rule for Constructing Dodecagonal Quasi-Periodic Formations

Authors: Rima A. Ajlouni

Abstract:

The discovery of quasi-periodic structures in material science is revealing an exciting new class of symmetries, which has never been explored before. Due to their unique structural and visual properties, these symmetries are drawing interest from many scientific and design disciplines. Especially, in art and architecture, these symmetries can provide a rich source of geometry for exploring new patterns, forms, systems, and structures. However, the structural systems of these complicated symmetries are still posing a perplexing challenge. While much of their local order has been explored, the global governing system is still unresolved. Understanding their unique global long-range order is essential to their generation and application. The recent discovery of dodecagonal quasi-periodic patterns in historical Islamic architecture is generating a renewed interest into understanding the mathematical principles of traditional Islamic geometry. Astonishingly, many centuries before its description in the modern science, ancient artists, by using the most primitive tools (a compass and a straight edge), were able to construct patterns with quasi-periodic formations. These ancient patterns can be found all over the ancient Islamic world, many of which exhibit formations with 5, 8, 10 and 12 quasi-periodic symmetries. Based on the examination of these historical patterns and derived from the generating principles of Islamic geometry, a global multi-level structural model is presented that is able to describe the global long-range order of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations in Islamic Architecture. Furthermore, this method is used to construct new quasi-periodic tiling systems as well as generating their deflation and inflation rules. This method can be used as a general guiding principle for constructing infinite patches of dodecagon-based quasi-periodic formations, without the need for local strategies (tiling, matching, grid, substitution, etc.) or complicated mathematics; providing an easy tool for scientists, mathematicians, teachers, designers and artists, to generate and study a wide range of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations.

Keywords: dodecagonal, Islamic architecture, long-range order, quasi-periodi

Procedia PDF Downloads 369
1221 An Experimental Study of Dynamic Compressive Strength of Bushveld Complex Brittle Rocks under Impact Loadingsa Chemicals and Fibre Corporation, Changhua Branch

Authors: A. Mudau, T. R. Stacey, R. A. Govender

Abstract:

This paper reports for the first time the findings on the dynamic compressive strength data of Bushveld Complex brittle rock materials. These rocks were subjected to both quasi-static and impact loading tests to help understand their behaviour both under quasi-static and dynamic loading conditions. Unlike quasi-static tests, characterization of dynamic behaviour of materials is challenging, in particularly brittle rock materials. The split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) results reported for anorthosite and norite showed relatively low values for dynamic compressive strength compared to the quasi-static uniaxial compressive strength data. It was noticed that the dynamic stress conditions were not fully attained during testing, as well as constant strain rate.

Keywords: Bushveld Complex, dynamic comperession, rock brittleness, stress equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 454
1220 Negative Self-Awareness and Its Effect on Crime

Authors: Guinevere Servis

Abstract:

This paper hypothesizes that withdrawal from positive self-awareness, and the increase of counterfactual-thinking and self-handicapping can help provide ample justification for an individual before, during and/or after committing a crime. The understanding of who someone is, one’s perspective on the world, and why they think the way they do is key to therapy in preventing recidivism. Developing habits to escape self-awareness, by using self-handicapping and counterfactual ideologies, may provide the necessary thinking patterns to decide disobeying the law is a worthy act to pursue. An increase in self-awareness is hypothesized to decrease the likelihood of recidivism, and ways of thinking that withdraw from self awareness can increase the likelihood of it. Especially for those who have been disadvantaged in life and disobeyed the law, self-handicapping and counterfactual thinking can also help to justify one's wrongdoing. The understanding of how a criminal views their disadvantages in the world, and one’s thinking patterns are hypothesized to help one better understand the entire scope on why a crime was committed and thus reduce the likelihood of recidivism. Utilizing therapy for prisoners to increase self-awareness of both thought and action can lead to a healthy, happier life and reduce the likelihood of reoffending. By discussing the terms associated with self-awareness theory and other psychological topics such as self-handicapping, counterfactual thinking, this paper argues the actions towards increasing positive self-awareness can help decrease likelihood of recidivism. Adversely, hypothesizing that increasing the ways of thinking that withdraw one from self-awareness, through counterfactual thinking and self-handicapping, can inherently increase the likelihood of recidivism. Evaluating these findings to further understand the needed changes in correctional institutions is fundamental to reducing crime, benefiting the criminal, the victim(s) and their family, and the state.

Keywords: crime, self-awareness theory, correctional institutions, self-regulate, counterfactual thinking, recidivism

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
1219 All-Silicon Raman Laser with Quasi-Phase-Matched Structures and Resonators

Authors: Isao Tomita

Abstract:

The principle of all-silicon Raman lasers for an output wavelength of 1.3 μm is presented, which employs quasi-phase-matched structures and resonators to enhance the output power. 1.3-μm laser beams for GE-PONs in FTTH systems generated from a silicon device are very important because such a silicon device can be monolithically integrated with the silicon planar lightwave circuits (Si PLCs) used in the GE-PONs. This reduces the device fabrication processes and time and also optical losses at the junctions between optical waveguides of the Si PLCs and Si laser devices when compared with 1.3-μm III-V semiconductor lasers set on the Si PLCs employed at present. We show that the quasi-phase-matched Si Raman laser with resonators can produce about 174 times larger laser power at 1.3 μm (at maximum) than that without resonators for a Si waveguide of Raman gain 20 cm/GW and optical loss 1.2 dB/cm, pumped at power 10 mW, where the length of the waveguide is 3 mm and its cross-section is (1.5 μm)2.

Keywords: All-Silicon Raman Laser, FTTH, GE-PON, Quasi-Phase-Matched Structure, resonator

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
1218 Robust Inference with a Skew T Distribution

Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

Abstract:

There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
1217 Integrating Process Planning, WMS Dispatching, and WPPW Weighted Due Date Assignment Using a Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Tarık Cakar, Ibrahim Cil, Muharrem Dugenci, Caner Erden

Abstract:

Conventionally, process planning, scheduling, and due-date assignment functions are performed separately and sequentially. The interdependence of these functions requires integration. Although integrated process planning and scheduling, and scheduling with due date assignment problems are popular research topics, only a few works address the integration of these three functions. This work focuses on the integration of process planning, WMS scheduling, and WPPW due date assignment. Another novelty of this work is the use of a weighted due date assignment. In the literature, due dates are generally assigned without considering the importance of customers. However, in this study, more important customers get closer due dates. Typically, only tardiness is punished, but the JIT philosophy punishes both earliness and tardiness. In this study, all weighted earliness, tardiness, and due date related costs are penalized. As no customer desires distant due dates, such distant due dates should be penalized. In this study, various levels of integration of these three functions are tested and genetic search and random search are compared both with each other and with ordinary solutions. Higher integration levels are superior, while search is always useful. Genetic searches outperformed random searches.

Keywords: process planning, weighted scheduling, weighted due-date assignment, genetic algorithm, random search

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
1216 Quasi–Periodicity of Tonic Intervals in Octave and Innovation of Themes in Music Compositions

Authors: R. C. Tyagi

Abstract:

Quasi-periodicity of frequency intervals observed in Shruti based Absolute Scale of Music has been used to graphically identify the Anchor notes ‘Vadi’ and ‘Samvadi’ which are nodal points for expansion, elaboration and iteration of the emotional theme represented by the characteristic tonic arrangement in Raga compositions. This analysis leads to defining the Tonic parameters in the octave including the key-note frequency, tonic intervals’ anchor notes and the on-set and range of quasi-periodicities as exponents of 2. Such uniformity of representation of characteristic data would facilitate computational analysis and synthesis of music compositions and also help develop noise suppression techniques. Criteria for tuning of strings for compatibility with placement of frets on finger boards is discussed. Natural Rhythmic cycles in music compositions are analytically shown to lie between 3 and 126 beats.

Keywords: absolute scale, anchor notes, computational analysis, frets, innovation, noise suppression, Quasi-periodicity, rhythmic cycle, tonic interval, Shruti

Procedia PDF Downloads 271
1215 One vs. Rest and Error Correcting Output Codes Principled Rebalancing Schemes for Solving Imbalanced Multiclass Problems

Authors: Alvaro Callejas-Ramos, Lorena Alvarez-Perez, Alexander Benitez-Buenache, Anibal R. Figueiras-Vidal

Abstract:

This contribution presents a promising formulation which allows to extend the principled binary rebalancing procedures, also known as neutral re-balancing mechanisms in the sense that they do not alter the likelihood ratio

Keywords: Bregman divergences, imbalanced multiclass classifi-cation, informed re-balancing, invariant likelihood ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
1214 A Compact Quasi-Zero Stiffness Vibration Isolator Using Flexure-Based Spring Mechanisms Capable of Tunable Stiffness

Authors: Thanh-Phong Dao, Shyh-Chour Huang

Abstract:

This study presents a quasi-zero stiffness (QZS) vibration isolator using flexure-based spring mechanisms which afford both negative and positive stiffness elements, which enable self-adjustment. The QZS property of the isolator is achieved at the equilibrium position. A nonlinear mathematical model is then developed, based on the pre-compression of the flexure-based spring mechanisms. The dynamics are further analyzed using the Harmonic Balance method. The vibration attention efficiency is illustrated using displacement transmissibility, which is then compared with the corresponding linear isolator. The effects of parameters on performance are also investigated by numerical solutions. The flexure-based spring mechanisms are subsequently designed using the concept of compliant mechanisms, with evaluation by ANSYS software, and simulations of the QZS isolator.

Keywords: vibration isolator, quasi-zero stiffness, flexure-based spring mechanisms, compliant mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 429