Search results for: weighted risk scores
6914 OnabotulinumtoxinA Injection for Glabellar Frown Lines as an Adjunctive Treatment for Depression
Authors: I. Witbooi, J. De Smidt, A. Oelofse
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Negative emotions that are common in depression are coupled with the activation of the corrugator supercilli and procerus muscles in the glabellar region of the face. This research investigated the impact of OnabotulinumtoxinA (BOTOX) in the improvement of emotional states in depressed subjects by relaxing the mentioned muscles. The aim of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of BOTOX treatment for glabellar frown lines as an adjunctive therapy for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and to improve the quality of life and self-esteem of the subjects. It is hypothesized that BOTOX treatment for glabellar frown lines reduces depressive symptoms significantly and therefore augment conventional antidepressant medication. Forty-five (45) subjects diagnosed with MDD were assigned to a treatment (n = 15), placebo (n = 15), and control (n = 15) group. The treatment group received BOTOX injection, while the placebo group received saline injection into the Procerus and Corrugator supercilli muscles with follow-up visits every 3 weeks (weeks 3, 6 and 12 respectively). The control group received neither BOTOX nor saline injections and were only interviewed again on the 12th week. To evaluate the effect of BOTOX treatment in the glabellar region on depressive symptoms, the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating (MADRS) scale and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used. The Quality of Life Enjoyment and Satisfaction Questionnaire-Short Form (Q-LES-Q-SF) and Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) were used in the assessment of self-esteem and quality of life. Participants were followed up for a 12 week period. The expected primary outcome measure is the response to treatment, and it is defined as a ≥ 50% reduction in MADRS score from baseline. Other outcome measures include a clinically significant decrease in BDI scores and the increase in quality of life and self-esteem respectively. Initial results show a clear trend towards such differences. Results showed trends towards expected differences. Patients in the Botox group had a mean MADRS score of 14.0 at 3 weeks compared to 20.3 of the placebo group. This trend was still visible at 6 weeks with the Botox and placebo group scoring an average of 10 vs. 18 respectively. The mean difference in MDRS scores from baseline to 3 weeks were 9.3 and 2.0 for the Botox and placebo group respectively. Similarly, the BDI scores were lower in the Botox group (17.25) compared to the placebo group (19.43). The two self-esteem questionnaires showed expected results at this stage with the RSES 19.1 in the Botox group compared to 18.6 in the placebo group. Similarly, the Botox patients had a higher score for the Q-LES-Q-SF of 49.2 compared to 46.1 for the placebo group. Conclusions: Initial results clearly demonstrated that the use of Botox had positive effects on both scores of depressions and that of self-esteem when compared to a placebo group.Keywords: adjunctive therapy, depression, glabellar area, OnabotulinumtoxinA
Procedia PDF Downloads 1396913 A Systematic Review of Efficacy and Safety of Radiofrequency Ablation in Patients with Spinal Metastases
Authors: Pascale Brasseur, Binu Gurung, Nicholas Halfpenny, James Eaton
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Development of minimally invasive treatments in recent years provides a potential alternative to invasive surgical interventions which are of limited value to patients with spinal metastases due to short life expectancy. A systematic review was conducted to explore the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation (RFA), a minimally invasive treatment in patients with spinal metastases. EMBASE, Medline and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to March 2017 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies. Conference proceedings for ASCO and ESMO published in 2015 and 2016 were also searched. Fourteen studies were included: three prospective interventional studies, four prospective case series and seven retrospective case series. No RCTs or studies comparing RFA with another treatment were identified. RFA was followed by cement augmentation in all patients in seven studies and some patients (40-96%) in the remaining seven studies. Efficacy was assessed as pain relief in 13/14 studies with the use of a numerical rating scale (NRS) or a visual analogue scale (VAS) at various time points. Ten of the 13 studies reported a significant decrease in pain outcome, post-RFA compared to baseline. NRS scores improved significantly at 1 week (5.9 to 3.5, p < 0.0001; 8 to 4.3, p < 0.02 and 8 to 3.9, p < 0.0001) and this improvement was maintained at 1 month post-RFA compared to baseline (5.9 to 2.6, p < 0.0001; 8 to 2.9, p < 0.0003; 8 to 2.9, p < 0.0001). Similarly, VAS scores decreased significantly at 1 week (7.5 to 2.7, p=0.00005; 7.51 to 1.73, p < 0.0001; 7.82 to 2.82, p < 0.001) and this pattern was maintained at 1 month post-RFA compared to baseline (7.51 to 2.25, p < 0.0001; 7.82 to 3.3; p < 0.001). A significant pain relief was achieved regardless of whether patients had cement augmentation in two studies assessing the impact of RFA with or without cement augmentation on VAS pain scores. In these two studies, a significant decrease in pain scores was reported for patients receiving RFA alone and RFA+cement at 1 week (4.3 to 1.7. p=0.0004 and 6.6 to 1.7, p=0.003 respectively) and 15-36 months (7.9 to 4, p=0.008 and 7.6 to 3.5, p=0.005 respectively) after therapy. Few minor complications were reported and these included neural damage, radicular pain, vertebroplasty leakage and lower limb pain/numbness. In conclusion, the efficacy and safety of RFA were consistently positive between prospective and retrospective studies with reductions in pain and few procedural complications. However, the lack of control groups in the identified studies indicates the possibility of selection bias inherent in single arm studies. Controlled trials exploring efficacy and safety of RFA in patients with spinal metastases are warranted to provide robust evidence. The identified studies provide an initial foundation for such future trials.Keywords: pain relief, radiofrequency ablation, spinal metastases, systematic review
Procedia PDF Downloads 1756912 Neural Network based Risk Detection for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia in Sinhala Language Speaking Children
Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe
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The educational system faces a significant concern with regards to Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, which are learning disabilities impacting reading and writing abilities. This is particularly challenging for children who speak the Sinhala language due to its complexity and uniqueness. Commonly used methods to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia rely on subjective assessments, leading to limited coverage and time-consuming processes. Consequently, delays in diagnoses and missed opportunities for early intervention can occur. To address this issue, the project developed a hybrid model that incorporates various deep learning techniques to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16, and YOLOv8 models were integrated to identify handwriting issues. The outputs of these models were then combined with other input data and fed into an MLP model. Hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, enabling the identification of optimal values for the model. This approach proved to be highly effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention. The Resnet50 model exhibited a training accuracy of 0.9804 and a validation accuracy of 0.9653. The VGG16 model achieved a training accuracy of 0.9991 and a validation accuracy of 0.9891. The MLP model demonstrated impressive results with a training accuracy of 0.99918, a testing accuracy of 0.99223, and a loss of 0.01371. These outcomes showcase the high accuracy achieved by the proposed hybrid model in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, dyslexia, dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science
Procedia PDF Downloads 706911 Prediction of Survival Rate after Gastrointestinal Surgery Based on The New Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM Score) With Neural Network Classification Method
Authors: Ayu Nabila Kusuma Pradana, Aprinaldi Jasa Mantau, Tomohiko Akahoshi
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The incidence of Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) following gastrointestinal surgery has a poor prognosis. Therefore, it is important to determine the factors that can predict the prognosis of DIC. This study will investigate the factors that may influence the outcome of DIC in patients after gastrointestinal surgery. Eighty-one patients were admitted to the intensive care unit after gastrointestinal surgery in Kyushu University Hospital from 2003 to 2021. Acute DIC scores were estimated using the new Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM) score from before and after surgery from day 1, day 3, and day 7. Acute DIC scores will be compared with The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, platelet count, lactate level, and a variety of biochemical parameters. This study applied machine learning algorithms to predict the prognosis of DIC after gastrointestinal surgery. The results of this study are expected to be used as an indicator for evaluating patient prognosis so that it can increase life expectancy and reduce mortality from cases of DIC patients after gastrointestinal surgery.Keywords: the survival rate, gastrointestinal surgery, JAAM score, neural network, machine learning, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2656910 Associations between Sleep Problems and Disordered Eating in Japanese Adolescents: A Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Takaharu Hirai, Yuta Mitobe, Hiromi Hirai
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Introduction: Eating disorders (ED) are serious psychiatric disorders that affect individuals, especially adolescents. It has been suggested that nonclinical ED-like characteristics are related to sleep problems. However, studies exploring the association between potential ED and sleep disorders have primarily been conducted in Europe and the United States. We conducted a survey of Japanese adolescents to investigate this claim. Method: In this cross-sectional study, 398 school-aged adolescents, aged 12–18 years old, matched for gender ratio, responded to a self-administered questionnaire survey. We used the Eating Attitudes Test-26 (EAT-26) and the Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS) to measure potential ED and sleep problems, respectively. In this study, participants with an EAT-26 total score of 0–19 points were classified as non-ED, while those with scores of 20 points or higher were classified as potential ED. Result: Of the 398 participants, 17 (4.3%) had an EAT-26 total score of 20 or higher. Among boys, the rate was 6 of 199 participants (3%), and among girls, the rate was 11 of 182 participants (6%). There were 89 participants (22.4%) with an AIS score of 6 points or higher, of which 36 (17.6%) were boys, and 53 (27.5%) were girls. Adolescents with potential ED had significantly higher rates of daytime sleep problems than those without ED. Further, while examining the types of sleep problems, adolescents with potential ED had greater problems with a sense of well-being and physical and mental functioning during the day. In contrast, no significant associations were found between potential ED and sleep initiation, awakenings during the night, early morning awakening, total sleep duration, or overall quality of sleep. Finally, nocturnal and daytime sleep scores were significantly associated with dieting, bulimia, and oral control EAT-26 sub-scores. Discussion: While Japanese adolescents with possible ED do not experience nighttime sleep problems, they do experience problems related to well-being and mental and physical functioning, which are indicators of daytime sleep problems. This may assist with early detection of disordered eating in adolescents. The study suggested that professionals working towards adolescent mental health issues need an approach that comprehensively integrates both sleep problems and potential ED.Keywords: adolescents, potential eating disorders, sleep problems, eating attitudes test-26
Procedia PDF Downloads 1796909 Green Fruit and Vegetables Have Favorable Effects on 3-Year Changes of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: A Cohort Study
Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Nazanin Moslehi, Fereidoun Azizi
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Background and aim: We aimed to investigate the effects of green fruits and vegetables (green FV) consumption on the 3-year changes of cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted in the framework of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, between 2006-2008 and 2009-2011, on 1272 adults. Dietary intake of green FV, including green cabbage, broccoli, lettuce, celery, green beans, green peas, cucumber, leafy vegetables, zucchini, green chili and bell pepper, and kiwi fruit, has been assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and second examination. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measures were evaluated at baseline and 3 years later. The associations of cardiometabolic risk changes with mean intake of green FV were estimated. Results: The mean age of men and women at baseline was 39.8±12.7 and 37.3±12.1 years, respectively. Mean intake of green FV was 152±77 g/d. More intake from green FV was accompanied to more intake of vitamin A, α and β-carotene, lutein, β-criptoxanthine, potassium, magnesium and fiber. Consumption of green FV was inversely associated with 3-year change of waist circumference (β= -0.07, P=0.01), total cholesterol (β= -0.11, P=0.01) and triglycerides (β= -0.13, P=0.01). Each 25 g/d increase in consumption of green FV decreased the incidence of hyper-triglyceridemia by 12% (OR:0.88, 95%CI:0.71-0.99) in men. In women, no significant association was observed between consumption of green FV with cardiometabolic risk factors. Conclusion: Higher consumption of green FV could have preventive effects against abdominal fat gain and lipid disorders.Keywords: cardiometabolic risk factors, abdominal obesity, lipid disorders, fruits, vegetables
Procedia PDF Downloads 4196908 An Empirical Assessment of Indoor Environmental Quality in Developing Sub-Saharan Countries: Evaluation of Existing Gaps and Potential Risk
Authors: Jean-Paul Kapuya Bulaba Nyembwe, John Omomoluwa Ogundiran, Manuel Carlos Gameiro da Silva
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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) remains a global concern because it impacts people's comfort, health, performance, and general well-being. People spend a significant amount of time in buildings or while commuting, hence ensuring the minimal risk in indoor spaces by ensuring suitable IEQ. IEQ studies are limited regarding developing sub-Saharan countries, whereas there is also a huge risk and concern for the current population and geometric growth as many cities in the region will become mega-cities by 2040 (World Bank report). The absence of suitable IEQ regulations and energy poverty are reasons to assess the IEQ gaps for increased awareness of sustainable interventions to minimize the associated risk. This study evaluates the gaps and potential hazards that exist in the IEQ of sub-Saharan countries using empirical studies of hospital occupants and BRT bus passengers and drivers. The Surveys were conducted in 3 cities of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos metropolis of Nigeria. The results suggest that gaps exist in IEQ for these regions. The gaps indicate existential risk to people’s health, comfort, and well-being. The inferential conclusions are that there is a need for further scientific studies, improvement in IEQ conditions, and ensuring suitable regulations for developing sub-Saharan countries.Keywords: health hazards, hospitals indoor environmental quality, indoor spaces, occupants, sub-Saharan countries, vehicles
Procedia PDF Downloads 776907 Apollo Quality Program: The Essential Framework for Implementing Patient Safety
Authors: Anupam Sibal
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Apollo Quality Program(AQP) was launched across the Apollo Group of Hospitals to address the four patient safety areas; Safety during Clinical Handovers, Medication Safety, Surgical Safety and the six International Patient Safety Goals(IPSGs) of JCI. A measurable, online, quality dashboard covering 20 process and outcome parameters was devised for monthly monitoring. The expected outcomes were also defined and categorized into green, yellow and red ranges. An audit methodology was also devised to check the processes for the measurable dashboard. Documented clinical handovers were introduced for the first time at many locations for in-house patient transfer, nursing-handover, and physician-handover. Prototype forms using the SBAR format were made. Patient-identifiers, read-back for verbal orders, safety of high-alert medications, site marking and time-outs and falls risk-assessment were introduced for all hospitals irrespective of accreditation status. Measurement of Surgical-Site-Infection (SSI) for 30 days postoperatively, was done. All hospitals now tracked the time of administration of antimicrobial prophylaxis before surgery. Situations with high risk of retention of foreign body were delineated and precautionary measures instituted. Audit of medications prescribed in the discharge summaries was made uniform. Formularies, prescription-audits and other means for reduction of medication errors were implemented. There is a marked increase in the compliance to processes and patient safety outcomes. Compliance to read-back for verbal orders rose from 86.83% in April’11 to 96.95% in June’15, to policy for high alert medications from 87.83% to 98.82%, to use of measures to prevent wrong-site, wrong-patient, wrong procedure surgery from 85.75% to 97.66%, to hand-washing from 69.18% to 92.54%, to antimicrobial prophylaxis within one hour before incision from 79.43% to 93.46%. Percentage of patients excluded from SSI calculation due to lack of follow-up for the requisite time frame decreased from 21.25% to 10.25%. The average AQP scores for all Apollo Hospitals improved from 62 in April’11 to 87.7 in Jun’15.Keywords: clinical handovers, international patient safety goals, medication safety, surgical safety
Procedia PDF Downloads 2626906 Prevalence of Selected Cardiovascular Risk Factors Obesity among University of Venda Staff
Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha
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Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff
Procedia PDF Downloads 2986905 Social Factors and Suicide Risk in Modern Russia
Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova
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Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia
Procedia PDF Downloads 1726904 Using Tilted Façade to Reduce Thermal Discomfort in a UK Passivhaus Dwelling for a Warming Climate
Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples
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This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating
Procedia PDF Downloads 7676903 Evaluating Value of Users' Personal Information Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis
Authors: Jae Hyun Park, Sangmi Chai, Minkyun Kim
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As users spend more time on the Internet, the probability of their personal information being exposed has been growing. This research has a main purpose of investigating factors and examining relationships when Internet users recognize their value of private information with a perspective of an economic asset. The study is targeted on Internet users, and the value of their private information will be converted into economic figures. Moreover, how economic value changes in relation with individual attributes, dealer’s traits, circumstantial properties will be studied. In this research, the changes in factors on private information value responding to different situations will be analyzed in an economic perspective. Additionally, this study examines the associations between users’ perceived risk and value of their personal information. By using the cost-benefit analysis framework, the hypothesis that the user’s sense in private information value can be influenced by individual attributes and situational properties will be tested. Therefore, this research will attempt to provide answers for three research objectives. First, this research will identify factors that affect value recognition of users’ personal information. Second, it provides evidences that there are differences on information system users’ economic value of information responding to personal, trade opponent, and situational attributes. Third, it investigates the impact of those attributes on individuals’ perceived risk. Based on the assumption that personal, trade opponent and situation attributes make an impact on the users’ value recognition on private information, this research will present the understandings on the different impacts of those attributes in recognizing the value of information with the economic perspective and prove the associative relationships between perceived risk and decision on the value of users’ personal information. In order to validate our research model, this research used the regression methodology. Our research results support that information breach experience and information security systems is associated with users’ perceived risk. Information control and uncertainty are also related to users’ perceived risk. Therefore, users’ perceived risk is considered as a significant factor on evaluating the value of personal information. It can be differentiated by trade opponent and situational attributes. This research presents new perspective on evaluating the value of users’ personal information in the context of perceived risk, personal, trade opponent and situational attributes. It fills the gap in the literature by providing how users’ perceived risk are associated with personal, trade opponent and situation attitudes in conducting business transactions with providing personal information. It adds to previous literature that the relationship exists between perceived risk and the value of users’ private information in the economic perspective. It also provides meaningful insights to the managers that in order to minimize the cost of information breach, managers need to recognize the value of individuals’ personal information and decide the proper amount of investments on protecting users’ online information privacy.Keywords: private information, value, users, perceived risk, online information privacy, attributes
Procedia PDF Downloads 2426902 Challenges in Environmental Governance: A Case Study of Risk Perceptions of Environmental Agencies Involved in Flood Management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Region, Australia
Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson
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The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions
Procedia PDF Downloads 2906901 The Effect of MOOC-Based Distance Education in Academic Engagement and Its Components on Kerman University Students
Authors: Fariba Dortaj, Reza Asadinejad, Akram Dortaj, Atena Baziyar
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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of distance education (based on MOOC) on the components of academic engagement of Kerman PNU. The research was quasi-experimental method that cluster sampling with an appropriate volume was used in this study (one class in experimental group and one class in controlling group). Sampling method is single-stage cluster sampling. The statistical society is students of Kerman Payam Noor University, which) were selected 40 of them as sample (20 students in the control group and 20 students in experimental group). To test the hypothesis, it was used the analysis of univariate and Co-covariance to offset the initial difference (difference of control) in the experimental group and the control group. The instrument used in this study is academic engagement questionnaire of Zerang (2012) that contains component of cognitive, behavioral and motivational engagement. The results showed that there is no significant difference between mean scores of academic components of academic engagement in experimental group and the control group on the post-test, after elimination of the pre-test. The adjusted mean scores of components of academic engagement in the experimental group were higher than the adjusted average of scores after the test in the control group. The use of technology-based education in distance education has been effective in increasing cognitive engagement, motivational engagement and behavioral engagement among students. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.26, predicted 26% of cognitive engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.47, predicted 47% of the motivational engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.40, predicted 40% of behavioral engagement component variance. So teaching with technology (MOOC) has a positive impact on increasing academic engagement and academic performance of students in educational technology. The results suggest that technology (MOOC) is used to enrich the teaching of other lessons of PNU.Keywords: educational technology, distance education, components of academic engagement, mooc technology
Procedia PDF Downloads 1516900 Risk Based Building Information Modeling (BIM) for Urban Infrastructure Transportation Project
Authors: Debasis Sarkar
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail
Procedia PDF Downloads 3136899 Breech Versus Cephalic Elective Caesarean Deliveries – A Comparison of Immediate Neonatal Outcomes
Authors: Genevieve R. Kan, Jolyon Ford
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Background: Caesarean section has become the routine route of delivery for breech fetuses, but breech cesarean deliveries are hypothesized to have poorer immediate neonatal outcomes when compared to cephalic deliveries. In accordance with this, in many Australian hospitals, the pediatric team is routinely required to attend every elective breech cesarean section in case urgent resuscitation is required. Our study aimed to determine whether term elective breech deliveries indeed had worse immediate neonatal outcomes at delivery, which will justify the necessity of pediatric staff presence at every elective breech cesarean delivery and influence the workload for the pediatric team. Objective: Elective breech cesarean deliveries were compared to elective cephalic cesarean deliveries at 37 weeks gestation or above to evaluate the immediate neonatal outcomes (Apgar scores <7 at 5 minutes, and Special Care Nursery admissions on Day 1 of life) of each group. Design: A retrospective cohort study Method: This study examined 2035 elective breech and cephalic singleton cesarean deliveries at term over 5 years from July 2017 to July 2022 at Frankston Hospital, a metropolitan hospital in Melbourne, Australia. There were 260 breech deliveries and 1775 cephalic deliveries. De-identified patient data were collected retrospectively from the hospital’s electronically integrated pregnancy and birth records to assess demographics and neonatal outcomes. Results: Apgar scores <7 at 5 minutes of life were worse in the breech group compared to the cephalic group (3.4% vs 1.6%). Special Care Nursery admissions on Day 1 of life were also higher for the breech cohort compared to the cephalic cohort (9.6% vs 8.7%). Conclusions: Our results support the expected findings that breech deliveries are associated with worse immediate neonatal outcomes. It, therefore, suggests that routine attendance at elective breech cesarean deliveries by the pediatric team is indeed required to assist with potentially higher needs for neonatal resuscitation and special care nursery admission.Keywords: breech, cesarean section, Apgar scores, special care nursery admission
Procedia PDF Downloads 1096898 Association of Transmission Risk Factors Among HCV-infected Bangladeshi Patients With Different Genotypes
Authors: Nahida Sultana
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Globally, an estimated 58 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection, with about 1.5 million new infections occurring per year. The hepatitis C virus is a blood-borne virus, and most infections occur through exposure to blood from unsafe injection practices, unsafe health care, unscreened blood transfusion, injection drug use, and sexual practices that lead to exposure to blood. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic infections that mainly affect the liver leading to liver diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is any significant association between HCV transmission risk factors in relation to genotypes in HCV-infected Bangladeshi patients. After quantification of HCV viral load, 36 samples were randomly selected for HCV genotyping and risk factor measurement. A greater proportion of genotype 1 (p > 0.05) patients (40%) underwent blood transfusion compared to patients (22.6%) with genotype 3 infections. More genotype 1 patient underwent surgery and invasive procedures (20%), and rather than those with genotype 3 patients (16.1%). The history of IDUs (25.8%) and sexual exposure (3.2%) are only prevalent in genotype 3 patients and absent in patients with genotype 1 (p >0.05). There was no significant statistical difference found in HCV transmission risk factors (blood transfusion, IDUs, Surgery& interventions, sexual transmission) between patients infected with genotypes 1 and 3. In HCV infection, genotype may have no relation to transmission risk factors among Bangladeshi patients.Keywords: HCV genotype, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HCV viral load, IDUs
Procedia PDF Downloads 896897 Using Risk Management Indicators in Decision Tree Analysis
Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani
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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions
Procedia PDF Downloads 646896 Evaluation of Prehabilitation Prior to Surgery for an Orthopaedic Pathway
Authors: Stephen McCarthy, Joanne Gray, Esther Carr, Gerard Danjoux, Paul Baker, Rhiannon Hackett
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Background: The Go Well Health (GWH) platform is a web-based programme that allows patients to access personalised care plans and resources, aimed at prehabilitation prior to surgery. The online digital platform delivers essential patient education and support for patients prior to undergoing total hip replacements (THR) and total knee replacements (TKR). This study evaluated the impact of an online digital platform (ODP) in terms of functional health outcomes, health related quality of life and hospital length of stay following surgery. Methods: A retrospective cohort study comparing a cohort of patients who used the online digital platform (ODP) to deliver patient education and support (PES) prior to undergoing THR and TKR surgery relative to a cohort of patients who did not access the ODP and received usual care. Routinely collected Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) data was obtained on 2,406 patients who underwent a knee replacement (n=1,160) or a hip replacement (n=1,246) between 2018 and 2019 in a single surgical centre in the United Kingdom. The Oxford Hip and Knee Score and the European Quality of Life Five-Dimensional tool (EQ5D-5L) was obtained both pre-and post-surgery (at 6 months) along with hospital LOS. Linear regression was used to compare the estimate the impact of GWH on both health outcomes and negative binomial regressions were used to impact on LOS. All analyses adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Score and either pre-operative Oxford Hip/Knee scores or pre-operative EQ-5D scores. Fractional polynomials were used to represent potential non-linear relationships between the factors included in the regression model. Findings: For patients who underwent a knee replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Knee Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post-surgery (p=0.039 and p=0.002 respectively). GWH did not have a statistically significant impact on the hospital length of stay. For those patients who underwent a hip replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Hip Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post (p=0.000 and p=0.009 respectively). GWH also had a statistically significant reduction in the hospital length of stay (p=0.000). Conclusion: Health Outcomes were higher for patients who used the GWH platform and underwent THR and TKR relative to those who received usual care prior to surgery. Patients who underwent a hip replacement and used GWH also had a reduced hospital LOS. These findings are important for health policy and or decision makers as they suggest that prehabilitation via an ODP can maximise health outcomes for patients following surgery whilst potentially making efficiency savings with reductions in LOS.Keywords: digital prehabilitation, online digital platform, orthopaedics, surgery
Procedia PDF Downloads 1936895 Application of Container Technique to High-Risk Children: Its Effect on Their Levels of Stress, Anxiety and Depression
Authors: Nguyen Thi Loan, Phan Ngoc Thanh Tra
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Container is one of the techniques used in Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EDMR) Therapy. This paper presents the positive results of applying Container technique to “high risk children”. The sample for this research is composed of 60 “high risk children” whose ages range from 11 to 18 years old, housed in Ho Chi Minh City Youth Center. They have been under the program of the Worldwide Orphans Foundation since August 2015 for various reasons such as, loss of parents, anti-social behaviors, homelessness, child labor among others. These “high risk children” are under high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The subjects were divided into two groups: the control and the experimental with 30 members each. The experimental group was applied Container Technique and the instruments used to measure their levels of stress, anxiety, and depression are DASS-42 and ASEBA. Results show that after applying the Container Technique to the experimental group, there are significant differences between the two groups’ levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The experimental group’s levels of stress, anxiety and depression decreased significantly. The results serve as a basis for the researchers to make an appeal to psychologists to apply Container Technique in doing psychological treatment in a suitable context.Keywords: anxiety, depression, container technique, EMDR
Procedia PDF Downloads 3056894 Surveying Earthquake Vulnerabilities of District 13 of Kabul City, Afghanistan
Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi
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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 2866893 Association of Maternal Age, Ethnicity and BMI with Gestational Diabetes Prevalence in Multi-Racial Singapore
Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan
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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy
Procedia PDF Downloads 2266892 A Small-Scale Survey on Risk Factors of Musculoskeletal Disorders in Workers of Logistics Companies in Cyprus and on the Early Adoption of Industrial Exoskeletons as Mitigation Measure
Authors: Kyriacos Clerides, Panagiotis Herodotou, Constantina Polycarpou, Evagoras Xydas
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Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in the workplace is a very common problem in Europe which are caused by multiple risk factors. In recent years, wearable devices and exoskeletons for the workplace have been trying to address the various risk factors that are associated with strenuous tasks in the workplace. The logistics sector is a huge sector that includes warehousing, storage, and transportation. However, the task associated with logistics is not well-studied in terms of MSDs risk. This study was aimed at looking into the MSDs affecting workers of logistics companies. It compares the prevalence of MSDs among workers and evaluates multiple risk factors that contribute to the development of MSDs. Moreover, this study seeks to obtain user feedback on the adoption of exoskeletons in such a work environment. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted among workers in logistics companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, from July to September 2022. A set of standardized questionnaires was used for collecting different types of data. Results: A high proportion of logistics professionals reported MSDs in one or more other body regions, the lower back being the most commonly affected area. Working in the same position for long periods, working in awkward postures, and handling an excessive load, were found to be the most commonly reported job risk factor that contributed to the development of MSDs, in this study. A significant number of participants consider the back region as the most to be benefited from a wearable exoskeleton device. Half of the participants would like to have at least a 50% reduction in their daily effort. The most important characteristics for the adoption of exoskeleton devices were found to be how comfortable the device is and its weight. Conclusion: Lower back and posture were the highest risk factors among all logistics professionals assessed in this study. A larger scale study using quantitative analytical tools may give a more accurate estimate of MSDs, which would pave the way for making more precise recommendations to eliminate the risk factors and thereby prevent MSDs. A follow-up study using exoskeletons in the workplace should be done to assess whether they assist in MSD prevention.Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, occupational health, safety, occupational risk, logistic companies, workers, Cyprus, industrial exoskeletons, wearable devices
Procedia PDF Downloads 1126891 Levels of Selected Heavy Metals in Varieties of Vegetable oils Consumed in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Health Risk Assessment of Local Population
Authors: Muhammad Waqar Ashraf
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Selected heavy metals, namely Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cd, Pb, and As, in seven popular varieties of edible vegetable oils collected from Saudi Arabia, were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS) using microwave digestion. The accuracy of procedure was confirmed by certified reference materials (NIST 1577b). The concentrations for copper, zinc, iron, manganese, lead and arsenic were observed in the range of 0.035 - 0.286, 0.955 - 3.10, 17.3 - 57.8, 0.178 - 0.586, 0.011 - 0.017 and 0.011 - 0.018 µg/g, respectively. Cadmium was found to be in the range of 2.36 - 6.34 ng/g. The results are compared internationally and with standards laid down by world health agencies. A risk assessment study has been carried out to assess exposure to these metals via consumption of vegetable oils. A comparison has been made with safety intake levels for these heavy metals recommended by Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IOM), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The results indicated that the dietary intakes of the selected heavy metals from daily consumption of 25 g of edible vegetable oils for a 70 kg individual should pose no significant health risk to local population.Keywords: vegetable oils, heavy metals, contamination, health risk assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4576890 Role of Erythrocyte Fatty Acids in Predicting Cardiometabolic Risk among the Elderly: A Secondary Analysis of the Walnut and Healthy Aging Study
Authors: Tony Jehi, Sujatha Rajaram, Nader majzoub, Joan Sabate
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Aging significantly increases the incidence of various cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). To combat CVD and its associated risk factors, it is imperative to adopt a healthy dietary pattern that is rife with beneficial nutrient and non-nutrient compounds. Unsaturated fats, specifically n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA), have cardio-protective effects; the opposite is true for saturated fatty acids. What role, if any, does the biomarker of fatty acid intake (specific fatty acids in the erythrocyte) play in predicting cardiometabolic risk among the elderly, a population highly susceptible to increased mortality and morbidity from CVD risk factors, remains unclear. This was a secondary analysis of the Walnuts and Healthy Aging Study. Briefly, elderly (n=192, mean age 69 y) participants followed their usual diet and were randomized into two groups to either eat walnuts daily or abstain from eating walnuts for a period of 2 years. The purpose was to identify potential associations between erythrocyte membrane fatty acids and cardiometabolic risk factors (body weight, blood pressure, blood lipids, and fasting glucose). Erythrocyte n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with total cholesterol (ß = -3.83; p= 0.02), triglycerides (ß = -7.66; p= <0.01), and fasting glucose (ß = -0.19; p=0.03). Specifically, erythrocyte ALA (ß= -1.59; P = 0.04) and DPA (ß= -0.62; P=0.04) were inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure and fasting glucose, respectively. N-6 PUFAs were positively associated with systolic blood pressure (ß=1.10; P=0.02). Mono-unsaturated fatty acids were positively associated with TAG (ß = 4.16; P=0.03). Total saturated fatty acids were not associated with any cardiometabolic risk factors. No association was found between any erythrocyte fatty acid and body weight. In conclusion, erythrocyte n-3 PUFA may be used as a biomarker to predict the cardiometabolic risk among healthy elders, providing support for the American Heart Association guidelines for including n-3 PUFA for preventing CVD.Keywords: cardiometabolic diseases, erythrocyte fatty acids, elderly, n-3 PUFA
Procedia PDF Downloads 766889 Simo-syl: A Computer-Based Tool to Identify Language Fragilities in Italian Pre-Schoolers
Authors: Marinella Majorano, Rachele Ferrari, Tamara Bastianello
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The recent technological advance allows for applying innovative and multimedia screen-based assessment tools to test children's language and early literacy skills, monitor their growth over the preschool years, and test their readiness for primary school. Several are the advantages that a computer-based assessment tool offers with respect to paper-based tools. Firstly, computer-based tools which provide the use of games, videos, and audio may be more motivating and engaging for children, especially for those with language difficulties. Secondly, computer-based assessments are generally less time-consuming than traditional paper-based assessments: this makes them less demanding for children and provides clinicians and researchers, but also teachers, with the opportunity to test children multiple times over the same school year and, thus, to monitor their language growth more systematically. Finally, while paper-based tools require offline coding, computer-based tools sometimes allow obtaining automatically calculated scores, thus producing less subjective evaluations of the assessed skills and provide immediate feedback. Nonetheless, using computer-based assessment tools to test meta-phonological and language skills in children is not yet common practice in Italy. The present contribution aims to estimate the internal consistency of a computer-based assessment (i.e., the Simo-syl assessment). Sixty-three Italian pre-schoolers aged between 4;10 and 5;9 years were tested at the beginning of the last year of the preschool through paper-based standardised tools in their lexical (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test), morpho-syntactical (Grammar Repetition Test for Children), meta-phonological (Meta-Phonological skills Evaluation test), and phono-articulatory skills (non-word repetition). The same children were tested through Simo-syl assessment on their phonological and meta-phonological skills (e.g., recognise syllables and vowels and read syllables and words). The internal consistency of the computer-based tool was acceptable (Cronbach's alpha = .799). Children's scores obtained in the paper-based assessment and scores obtained in each task of the computer-based assessment were correlated. Significant and positive correlations emerged between all the tasks of the computer-based assessment and the scores obtained in the CMF (r = .287 - .311, p < .05) and in the correct sentences in the RCGB (r = .360 - .481, p < .01); non-word repetition standardised test significantly correlates with the reading tasks only (r = .329 - .350, p < .05). Further tasks should be included in the current version of Simo-syl to have a comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach when assessing children. However, such a tool represents a good chance for the teachers to early identifying language-related problems even in the school environment.Keywords: assessment, computer-based, early identification, language-related skills
Procedia PDF Downloads 1866888 Momentum Profits and Investor Behavior
Authors: Aditya Sharma
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Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns
Procedia PDF Downloads 3086887 Estimating the Value of Statistical Life under the Subsidization and Cultural Effects
Authors: Mohammad A. Alolayan, John S. Evans, James K. Hammitt
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The value of statistical life has been estimated for a middle eastern country with high economical subsidization system. In this study, in-person interviews were conducted on a stratified random sample to estimate the value of mortality risk. Double-bounded dichotomous choice questions followed by open-ended question were used in the interview to investigate the willingness to pay of the respondent for mortality risk reduction. High willingness to pay was found to be associated with high income and education. Also, females were found to have lower willingness to pay than males. The estimated value of statistical life is larger than the ones estimated for western countries where taxation system exists. This estimate provides a baseline for monetizing the health benefits for proposed policy or program to the decision makers in an eastern country. Also, the value of statistical life for a country in the region can be extrapolated from this this estimate by using the benefit transfer method.Keywords: mortality, risk, VSL, willingness-to-pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 3206886 Economic Evaluation Offshore Wind Project under Uncertainly and Risk Circumstances
Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti
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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3546885 A Comparison and Discussion of Modern Anaesthetic Techniques in Elective Lower Limb Arthroplasties
Authors: P. T. Collett, M. Kershaw
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Introduction: The discussion regarding which method of anesthesia provides better results for lower limb arthroplasty is a continuing debate. Multiple meta-analysis has been performed with no clear consensus. The current recommendation is to use neuraxial anesthesia for lower limb arthroplasty; however, the evidence to support this decision is weak. The Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) society has recommended, either technique can be used as part of a multimodal anesthetic regimen. A local study was performed to see if the current anesthetic practice correlates with the current recommendations and to evaluate the efficacy of the different techniques utilized. Method: 90 patients who underwent total hip or total knee replacements at Nevill Hall Hospital between February 2019 to July 2019 were reviewed. Data collected included the anesthetic technique, day one opiate use, pain score, and length of stay. The data was collected from anesthetic charts, and the pain team follows up forms. Analysis: The average of patients undergoing lower limb arthroplasty was 70. Of those 83% (n=75) received a spinal anaesthetic and 17% (n=15) received a general anaesthetic. For patients undergoing knee replacement under general anesthetic the average day, one pain score was 2.29 and 1.94 if a spinal anesthetic was performed. For hip replacements, the scores were 1.87 and 1.8, respectively. There was no statistical significance between these scores. Day 1 opiate usage was significantly higher in knee replacement patients who were given a general anesthetic (45.7mg IV morphine equivalent) vs. those who were operated on under spinal anesthetic (19.7mg). This difference was not noticeable in hip replacement patients. There was no significant difference in length of stay between the two anesthetic techniques. Discussion: There was no significant difference in the day one pain score between the patients who received a general or spinal anesthetic for either knee or hip replacements. The higher pain scores in the knee replacement group overall are consistent with this being a more painful procedure. This is a small patient population, which means any difference between the two groups is unlikely to be representative of a larger population. The pain scale has 4 points, which means it is difficult to identify a significant difference between pain scores. Conclusion: There is currently little standardization between the different anesthetic approaches utilized in Nevill Hall Hospital. This is likely due to the lack of adherence to a standardized anesthetic regimen. In accordance with ERAS recommends a standard anesthetic protocol is a core component. The results of this study and the guidance from the ERAS society will support the implementation of a new health board wide ERAS protocol.Keywords: anaesthesia, orthopaedics, intensive care, patient centered decision making, treatment escalation
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